Tag:

NFL DFS GPP

NFL DraftKings and FanDuel DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 7

Capper Steve 3 years ago

written by Capper Steve

Upset after upset, there were a few games to put in the back of our heads from Week 6. That’s why we need to stick to our 50/50s in order to keep our bankrolls afloat. But Week 6’s curveballs did not stop one of our subscribers from taking down a GPP for $3K... congrats again you know who you are! Josh Allen, Stef Diggs, Kelce, and Andrews all got us there. Stick to Stix’s projection model, it works and answers most of your questions on who to start up until kickoff. So we have another 11-game slate but with some real bangers on bye…Buffalo and Phila, are two of the best rosters for fantasy. The Vikes and Rams are off too, so no Kupp or JJ this week either. But we got this, still plenty of paths to victory this week! Keep in mind I’m always on our Discord chat guys, just tag me @JDiCarlo78#5965 for any questions about your lineup builds. Now let’s break down this Week 7 slate!

Sunday Main Slate 10/23/22

Giants @ Jaguars (-3) (O/U 42)

Giants

New York at an astounding 5-1 record, has dominated in the clutch with their defense and utilized their most dynamic weapon when the ball is in his hands. Wink Martindale loves to play man-to-man and blitz a ton, we shall see how Lawrence reacts to the pressure. As for Saquon Barkley, he continues to put the G-men on his back from week to week averaging over 20 fantasy points per game. The model is all over QB Daniel Jones in this spot. His price tag has dropped, but the upside is there for potential rushing yards.

Jaguars

Christian Kirk has been quiet in the past few weeks but gets a nice matchup if he can line up on the inside. The veteran and number-one option for Trevor Lawrence could easily outmaneuver Giants’ slot corner Adoree’ Jackson and get his rocks off this weekend.

Cash: S. Barkley, C. Kirk

GPP: Giants DST, D. Jones

Packers @ Commanders (+4.5) (O/U 41.5)

Packers

Green Bay is desperate for a win after losing two straight as heavy favorites. In order to get back in the win column, Rodgers will need to throw it into that gross Commanders’ secondary. Allen Lazard has hooked up with the future Hall of Famer 4 times in the endzone already and may add more touchdowns in D.C. if they can focus on their weakness at secondary (26th in DVOA).

Commanders

With Carson Wentz out for 4-6 weeks, Taylor Heinicke will be back under center again for Washington. He’s got experience as a starter since 2020 but facing a Packer team hungry for a win could spell trouble for him against a top defense in the league. Head Coach Ron Rivera has made it loud and clear to get rookie Bryan Robinson plenty of touches, and the Packers are a team that is best to run on (Breece Hall last week) who are (21st in DVOA).

Cash: A. Lazard, Packers DST

GPP: A. Rodgers, B. Robinson

Lions @ Cowboys (-7) (O/U 49)

Lions

Detroit returning from a bye week will hopefully keep the fantasy output consistent in Dallas. Stud receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown has been practicing after twisting an ankle and looks to be on pace to play Sunday, but running back D’Andre Swift is still a no-show this week. No sweat, Jamaal Williams (16 FPTS./Game) has filled in perfectly and will still be force-fed the rock if Swift can’t suit up. Goff as always will be chasing a lead, but with the pressure from this Dallas front line and the constant blitzing of Micah Parsons, we should stay clear.

Cowboys

Welcome back Dak! Finally, since Week One we may see some more of the offense in Dallas. Backup Cooper Rush did manage his way to a 4-1 record and could’ve been giving Prescott goosebumps about losing his job. He’ll look to solidify himself again on Sunday against the most generous of opponents (30th in DVOA). Of course, Lamb and Zeke are good too this week, slide them right in your lineups.

Cash: D. Prescott, E, Elliot, C. Lamb, A. St. Brown, J. Williams

GPP:

Falcons @ Bengals (-6.5) (O/U 47)

Falcons

Atlanta even with its shaky defense still puts up a good fight and has brought most of its games down to the final snap. But when they have the ball, the Falcons revolve around their first-round pick Drake London. Though he’s tapered off a little in receptions, he should see some Eli Apple who has been picked on by plenty of the elite receivers around the league. Mariota has been efficient as of late, rushing for 111 yards in his last two games with a rushing touchdown. If he can keep it up this week he should have a great ROI of 3X.

Bengals

Burrow and Chase smashed last weekend in their return back home to where they started out in Louisiana combining for a total of 70 FPTS against the Saints. They can have a repeat performance with another nice matchup on paper at home, Atlanta we know has been a stomping ground for quarterbacks and receivers this year. Running back Joe Mixon has also been in the mix of the offense putting up double-digit fantasy points on a weekly basis, if the game script stays positive, Mixon will feast.

Cash: J. Burrow, J. Chase, J. Mixon, D. London

GPP: M. Mariota, Falcons DST

Bucs @ Panthers (+11) (O/U 40)

Bucs

The GOAT was back in the news this week squashing rumors of him retiring mid-season. The 45-year-old Brady may have to hang up his cleats if he can’t drop the hammer on Carolina, who just dealt their number one offensive threat, Christian McCaffrey, to the Niners. All the key weapons are in play for Tampa against a Panther team clearly headed to the top of the draft order. We all know Brady and what he does best, winning and proving the haters wrong. Expect a big game, in Brady’s 4 career games against Carolina the Bucs have scored 30 plus points.

Panthers

Only a few days after dealing wide receiver Robbie Anderson, out goes their best player in McCaffrey to San Fransisco for a cluster of draft picks. It’s obvious now there is a huge void in the Panther offense which leaves the last man standing as DJ Moore. I’m only interested in any opposing defenses at this point in the season for Carolina, and this week is the Bucs. But if you’re feeling lucky take a shot on Moore, as the interim Carolina head coach Steve Wilks came out publicly stating that the team will be built around him moving forward.

Cash: T. Brady, M. Evans, C. Godwin, L. Fournette, Bucs DST

GPP: D. Moore

Browns @ Ravens (-6.5) (O/U 45.5)

Browns

Cleveland may be behind the eightball here in this division game on the road. Lamar may be letting out some of his frustration on the Browns’ beatable run defense (29th in DVOA). The same can be said of Baltimore’s secondary who has given up one big play to another this year. Donovan Peoples-Jones is the guy to get that deep shot. Kareem Hunt’s pass-catching services could also be needed if the Browns play hurry-up if they do fall behind a wide margin.

Ravens

After lighting it up to begin the season, Jackson has fallen back down to earth scoring less than 20 FPTS in his last 4 games. Well, the dog pound is in town and Jackson could very possibly get himself out of the dog house of his fantasy managers on Sunday. Cleveland allows almost 28 points per game, and Mark Andrews (34 Receptions on 50 Targets) would benefit across the field from Lamar so long as he can suit up and log a practice before Sunday.

Cash: L. Jackson, M. Andrews

GPP: D. Peoples-Jones, K. Hunt

Colts @ Titans (-2.5) (O/U 42.5)

Colts

Matt Ryan off a 389-yard/3 TD game gets another crack at duplicating his performance against the Titans who have the second-worst receiver coverage in the league. It’s hard to trust Ryan to replicate that even with the juicy matchup, but his receivers we can. Pittman has been his go-to alpha and rookie Alec Pierce has built chemistry with the veteran racking up double-digit fantasy points for three straight games.

Titans

The Titans continue to ride the Derrick Henry train on offense, lately having plenty of success. So long as the game is within reach, Henry will keep getting fed the ball and is really the only reliable fantasy asset in Tennessee.

Cash: M. Pittman, D. Henry

GPP: M. Ryan, A. Pierce

Jets @ Broncos (-1) (O/U 38)

Jets

The other over-achieving New York team is at Mile High on Sunday Afternoon. Instead of winning without receivers like the Giants, they win without a quarterback (Zach Wilson). Head Coach Robert Saleh has the Jets literally running on all cylinders behind Breece Hall and Michael Carter. They could very well do some damage in Denver, but not as much as Russell Wilson thus far. New York’s defense has been the highest scoring for fantasy over the past 3 weeks, and to get a crack at one of the most overrated quarterbacks would be a dream come true on Sunday.

Broncos

Where do I begin…Do we really want anything to do with Denver besides the kicker McManus and the defense? Everybody, until we see some better play calling from coach Hackett and decision-making from Russell Wilson… the kitchen is closed. I realize they have the Jets, so we can use that Bronco D and watch them go to work on Zach Wilson.

Update: Russell Wilson Out, Brett Rypien to start at QB

Cash: B. Hall, Broncos DST

GPP: Jets DST

Texans @ Raiders (-7) (O/U 45.5)

Texans

Coach Lovey Smith will continue to ride the hot hand with rookie running back Dameon Pierce. Rushing a solid 5.7 yards per carry, Pierce plows through defensive lines and keeps the pressure off quarterback Davis Mills. The Texan running game has opened doors for its young receivers, like Nico Collins. A mear ($4,100 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) could get you double-digit fantasy points which he’s had for his last two starts.

Raiders

Tight end Darren Waller will sit out coming off a bye week, and Hunter Renfrow and Mack Hollins are questionable going into the weekend. This news just gets us even more excited for the amount of volume for Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs, who will be a knockout one-two punch to the exploitable Houston defense (32nd in DVOA in rushing) (Adams gets coverage from rookie Derrick Stingley Jr.).

Cash: D. Adams, J. Jacobs

GPP: D. Pierce, N. Collins, M. Hollins

Chiefs @ Niners (+2.5) (O/U 48.5)

Chiefs

Don’t let that little red OPR Rank number scare you away from drafting any Chiefs this Sunday. San Fran is still burdened by injuries to their defensive starters. Even if they were all 100 percent, who cares it’s Kansas City, and Mahomes will throw it 50 times if he has to. The Niners are in fact tough on opposing running backs, so beware of CEH. Kelce needs no explanation, he’s a lock. It’s finding which Chief receiver will go off each week. The Model is loving some MVS…when in doubt check the analytics.

Niners

San Fransisco pushed their chips all in this week trading for Christian McCaffrey on Thursday. This move puts them in conversations for the Super Bowl by acquiring the caliber of player in McCaffrey. He will suit up Sunday against the Chiefs as of now, but we may not want to buy in too soon at his current price tag unknowingly his role yet. Jimmy G and Deebo I would bet are the safest pieces here, maybe Kittle too (if the Chiefs line up in a lot of Cover 4, that would open up the middle of the field).

Cash: P. Mahomes, T. Kelce, D. Samuel

GPP: J. Garoppolo, G. Kittle

Seahawks @ Chargers (-6) (O/U 51)

Seahawks

Geno and the crew are perceived to be in another shoot-out with a high-point total and a 6-point dog. He unexpectedly stunk it up on us last week with a 14-point downer, but in another negative game script, he will have to keep up the pace, peppering his favorite receiver DK Metcalf (50 targets, leads the team). Kenneth Walker was excellent against Arizona (110 total yards/1 TD) and will continue to get better, LA is a disgusting third worst defending the run.

Chargers

Gunslinger quarterback Justin Herbert may get his main man Keenan Allen back and boy did he miss him. Herbert has not hit the 20 fantasy point mark since Week 4 and was held to no touchdown passes last week. Allen is a true game-time decision but is “hoping” to play. Kennan in the rotation spreads out the middle of the field opposite Mike Williams and creates havoc for opposing defenses across the middle. Thankfully Austin Ekeler has been on fire and picking up the slack and keeping the Chargers’ head above water. He also will draw the 26th-ranked fantasy run defense, so get him in if you can, especially if Allen can’t play.

Cash: J. Herbert, K. Allen (if he plays), A. Ekeler, K. Walker III, M. Williams

GPP: G. Smith, D. Metcalf

Cash Core 4

J. Herbert/J. Jacobs/D. Samuel/T. Kelce

GPP Core 4

P. Mahomes/E. Elliot/A. St. Brown/G. Kittle

Stacks

D. Prescott, C. Lamb, E. Elliot/J. Herbert, K. Allen, A. Ekeler/P. Mahomes, T. Kelce/ M. Ryan, A. Pierce, M. Pittman

J. Garoppolo, D. Samuel, G. Kittle/T. Brady, M. Evans, C. Godwin, L. Fournette, C. Otton

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 7. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78. Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport. I can’t believe we are already in Week 7, let’s stay focused and keep getting richer!

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL DFS Week 7: Stix Picks (Cash and GPP)

StixPicks 3 years ago

written by StixPicks

After a monster Week 6, we’re right back in the saddle for a very spread out Week 7 NFL DFS slate. Due to another week-long work trip, I’ll keep this week’s NFL DFS Cash Game article a bit more brief, and add my GPP plays as well. We can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up).

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson ($8,000 DK / $8,800 FD) – highest floor, highest ceiling, and the highest ownership on the slate.
Justin Herbert ($7,200 DK / $8,100 FD) – best matchup on the slate for a quarterback who will throw it 40 times a game. I’m truly only interested if Keenan Allen is IN, but he’s safe enough for cash either way.
Joe Burrow ($6,900 DK / $8,300 FD) – fantastic price on DraftKings and a core play for me in all formats of NFL DFS lineups this week. Usually, I do not love playing stacks against the Falcons’ insanely slow pace of play, but the Bengals are extremely pass-heavy lately and letting Burrow do damage behind an improving offensive line.
Tom Brady ($6,300 DK / $7,400 FD)

GPP Favorites:

Aaron Rodgers ($6,000 DK / $7,100 FD) – 2% owned Rodgers is a bit scary as this offense has been a train-wreck for most of 2022, but the AETY Model seems to believe this is an absolute blow-up spot for the Packers’ offense on the road against a banged-up and overall struggling Washington secondary.
Patrick Mahomes ($7,800 DK / $8,500 FD) – outside of Lamar Jackson, highest floor and highest ceiling on the slate at 5% ownership.

NFL DFS Cash Game Running Backs

Austin Ekeler ($8,300 DK / $9,500 FD)
Josh Jacobs ($6,500 DK / $8,600 FD) – highest owned running back on the slate. Ride the ownership wave in cash and I’m fine if you play him in NFL DFS GPP lineups due to the fantastic matchup and top-tier usage.
Kenneth Walker ($5,800 DK / $7,300 FD) – free square on DraftKings and like Josh Jacobs, the ownership will be through the roof. In this matchup and high-total game environment, he’s a fine play in all formats.
Joe Mixon ($7,000 DK / $7,100 FD) – lock play in cash on FanDuel, but certainly in play on DraftKings as well. The Bengals have a 27-point implied team total, you will want exposure to this offense.
Breece Hall ($6,200 DK / $7,600 FD)

GPP Favorites:

Ezekiel Elliott ($6,000 DK / $6,900 FD) – surprisingly high usage lately and a smash matchup with significant multiple-touchdown upside against the Lions’ 31st ranked run defense (DVOA). Like Mixon, the Cowboys implied team total is the highest on this slate. Get exposure somewhere!
Leonard Fournette ($7,700 DK / $8,400 FD)
Nick Chubb ($8,000 DK / $8,900 FD)

NFL DFS Cash Game Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb ($6,800 DK / $7,700 FD)
Deebo Samuel ($7,600 DK / $7,700 FD)
Davante Adams ($8,700 DK / $8,600 FD)
Tyler Lockett ($5,800 DK / $6,800 FD)
Romeo Doubs ($5,000 DK / $5,800 FD) – the cheap punt-play wide receiver chalk on the slate.

GPP Favorites:

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,100 DK / $7,500 FD) – 10% ownership projection in a game where the Lions are playing catchup… not to mention the matchup against Jourdan Lewis on the inside.
Tee Higgins ($6,400 DK / $7,100 FD) – the Bengals double stack is always in play but I love the matchup for Higgins against the Falcons’ cover-3 defense.
Allen Lazard ($6,100 DK / $6,600 FD) – the AETY Model’s #4 matchup for any wide receiver on this slate and we’re getting an insane discount.
Michael Gallup ($5,100 DK / $6,100 FD) – cheap exposure to this Dallas offense. Excellent matchup for Gallup against this horrific Lions’ secondary.
Alec Pierce ($4,600 DK / $6,100 FD) – the number 5 matchup for opposing wide receivers according to the AETY Model. If there’s any sniff of an up-tempo pace, Pierce will absolutely destroy his value on DraftKings.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4,400 DK / $5,600 FD) – shout-out to Juju Smith-Schuster for the monster output last week for us while chalk MVS disappointed the field. This week, I’m fine with going all the way down to Valdes-Scantling against the 49ers Cover-4 and Cover-3 defensive looks. This is a matchup he should thrive in.

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce ($8,000 DK / $8,300 FD)
Mark Andrews ($7,400 DK / $8,500 FD)
Greg Dulcich ($2,500 DK / $4,000 FD) – in cash games, take the free square on the punt tight-end unless you can pay up for one of the two above. Dulcich will be 60% owned in NFL DFS cash game contests.
Foster Moreau – with Russell Wilson OUT, I’m moving the pay-down option to Moreau,

GPP Favorites:

George Kittle ($5,300 DK / $6,600 FD) – if Trent Williams is IN, this matchup against Kansas City should offer a coming out party for all George Kittle fantasy managers. This is the week against the blitz-heavy, Cover-4 Chiefs’ defense.
Robert Tonyan ($4,100 DK / $5,500 FD)
Evan Engram ($3,300 DK / $5,200 FD)

NFL DFS Cash Game Defense/Special Teams

Dallas Cowboys
Denver Broncos
New York Giants
Indianapolis Colts
New York Jets

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (Cash Games)

Tom Brady
Josh Jacobs
Kenneth Walker
CeeDee Lamb
Foster Moreau

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

Stix Picks: Week 6 NFL DFS GPP

StixPicks 3 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 6 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups. Similar to the cash article, I’ll keep this article more brief and discuss in further detail in Discord due to a week of travel.

If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a potential splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat (all of which are in the cash game article).

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

It’s a tough week to be contrarian in my opinion. The pay-up for Josh Allen is damn-near bulletproof, while the value in Geno Smith against the Cardinals’ defense is also a fantastic spot. I’m just not confident there is much value getting different at the quarterback position this week. If I’m not using Allen or Smith, here’s where I’ll be:

Lamar Jackson (10% ownership projection)- Only true quarterback on the slate who can regularly push the upside of a Josh Allen ceiling game. Stack Options: Mark Andrews, Devin Duvernay, JK Dobbins
Kyler Murray (5% ownership projection) – Similar situation as Lamar Jackson but involved in a game with a significant higher total and a Seattle defense that grades 31st in overall Defense DVOA. Stack Options: Marquise Brown, Zach Ertz, Rondale Moore, Eno Benjamin
Tom Brady (10% ownership projection) – Pittsburgh’s secondary is depleted and you know what you’re getting with Brady on a weekly basis (40+ pass attempts) for your NFL DFS GPP lineups. If anyone is going to make up the extra rushing fantasy points of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Kyler Murray, it’s Tom Brady with the 4 passing touchdown upside. Stack Options: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette, Cameron Brate

Honorable Mention: Aaron Rodgers

NFL DFS GPP Running Backs

The running back position is where I truly believe we can get different. Yes, the value on Eno Benjamin is arguably impossible to pass up, but do we really need to go all in on 40% owned Rhamondre Stevenson, Kenneth Walker, and Darrell Henderson? Maybe your answer to that question is yes… just get different elsewhere. If you’re trying to get different at running back, here are the AETY Model options:

Nick Chubb (5% ownership projection) – the clear RB1 if you’re paying up. New England will likely scheme to slow him down, but their run defense has been brutal all year long. It’s Nick Chubb.
Leonard Fournette (10% ownership projection)
Devin Singletary (8% ownership projection) – Probably my favorite NFL DFS GPP running back on the slate. Clear leverage off of the Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs chalk stack and in a fantastic matchup against the blitz-heavy and Cover-4 Kansas City defense. There will be plenty of action in the flats this weekend for Devin Singletary but if he can get in the box, he could be a slate changing play.
JK Dobbins (1% ownership projection) – Priced right there with the Kenneth Walker and Darrell Henderson’s of the world with just as much touchdown equity (if not more). There is certainly risk to playing Dobbins as the snap share is always going to be questionable, but the AETY Model loves this spot for Dobbins against a bottom-8 run defense in the Giants.

Honorable Mention: Breece Hall, Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

Everyone from the Cash Game Checkdown is in play for your NFL DFS GPP builds. Similar to the Quarterback position, sometimes great plays are just great plays. Here are some of the others I’ll be taking a look at to get different in my builds:

Cooper Kupp (10% ownership projection) – 10% Cooper Kupp is all we need to say.
Ja’Maar Chase (8% ownership projection) – No Tee Higgins. No Marshon Lattimore. Significantly less ownership with just as much upside as Stefon Diggs for $500 less on DraftKings.
Marquise Brown (5% ownership projection) – As everyone plays the Eno Benjamin, Zach Ertz, and Rondale Moore value, the wide receiver with the best matchup on the slate and SECOND in the NFL in targets is going unowned in NFL DFS GPP contests. Marquise Brown is a priority play for me in Week 6.
Mike Evans (5% ownership projection) – Slate breaking upside in this matchup against the Steelers. The big plays will be there on Sunday for Mike Evans and the ownership will solely go to Chris Godwin.
DK Metcalf (15% ownership projection) – Not under the radar by any means, but he’s damn-near a must-play on FanDuel and a perfect leverage pivot off of Tyler Lockett chalk week. Metcalf has 50% of the Seattle red-zone targets so far this season… A big game is coming.
Devin Duvernay (2% ownership) – Loved the usage last week while Bateman was out with an injury. Bateman is out again this week leaving a fantastic matchup on the inside of this Giants’ secondary for the swiss army knife of Devin Duvernay.
Mecole Hardman (1% ownership) – My typical Mecole Hardman love but this is a fantastic buy-low spot as the Chiefs will likely be chasing points in this back-and-forth matchup against the Bills. I don’t really love any Chiefs’ wideout this week, so I don’t hate going the cheap route with a 1% Hardman.

Honorable Mention: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Allen Lazard, Wan’Dale Robinson

NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce (10% ownership projection)
Mark Andrews (12% ownership projection)
Zach Ertz (8% ownership projection)
Dawson Knox (5% ownership projection) – Cheapest stack option for Josh Allen and a solid matchup against the zone blitz defense of the Chiefs. A very low floor, but a nice salary saving upside option for NFL DFS GPP lineups.

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports Premium

NFL DraftKings and FanDuel DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 6

Capper Steve 3 years ago

written by Capper Steve

The byes have arrived! Only 11 games on the Main Slate for Sunday…and one of our favorite teams to pick on is home on the couch, the Lions. Not only are we short on teams this week, but we are short on players! The injuries have already skyrocketed and we are not even halfway through the season. There are still a few bangers out there this week so don’t sweat it. One of them is a rematch of last season’s AFC Divisional Round, probably the best pound-for-pound playoff game in our generation…Bills/Chiefs. We definitely will want pieces of this game in our lineups (O/U 54), and our projection models will help us find the FFVPs. Remember we’re all in here to help, our team is here 24/7 in our discord chat, tag me @JDiCarlo78#5965 for any questions about your lineup builds. Let’s do this breakdown of Week 6!

Sunday Main Slate 10/16/22

Jets @ Packers (-7) (O/U 45.5)

Jets

New York will want to ride the wave of their one-two punch of running backs Breece Hall and Michael Carter in Green Bay. The duo combined for a total of 230 yards from scrimmage and 3 touchdowns at home against Miami. As Zach Wilson is still getting familiar with his offense, look for New York to lean again on the run against a Packer run defense who have given up double-digit fantasy points to the position all season.

Packers

Aaron Rodgers must be pretty sour after flying over the pond to take an “L” from the Giants, especially after trying to be the hero at the end and failing on 4th down. He didn’t make the QB write-up this week but certainly can get there against this green Jets’ secondary on the road (6 PaTDs to elite QBs in 2 games). Rodgers plays his best football at home and with a chip on his shoulder, and he’s too cheap to pass on this week ($6,100 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel).

Cash: A. Rodgers

GPP: B. Hall, M. Carter

Bucs @ Steelers (+8.5) (O/U 43.5)

Bucs

After that beating Buffalo put on the Steelers last week you have to want to own Brady in this slate. Pittsburgh’s 30th DVOA to quarterbacks does not get any better for the GOAT this week and it gets even better. The Steelers will be without 3 of their starting corners and Minkah Fitzpatrick. Start your Bucs this weekend in the steel city. One more thing, rookie quarterbacks have a hard time keeping the football. Tampa’s defense is still one of the most intense in football and could rattle Pickett’s cage on Sunday.

Steelers

Young Kenny Pickett hopefully will rest his arm before Sunday, he may have to throw 50 times. Najee Harris and the run game have been struggling this season due to its poor offensive line. Then there’s George Pickens…sign me up. He’s been Kenny’s go-to guy since he day one racking up 12 catches on 16 targets for 185 yards. Take a flyer on Georgie for a GPP, even more, ballsy to pair with his quarterback. If he can curb the interceptions, Pickett may be a fantasy viable with super low ownership.

Update: P . Freiermuth is out! TE special: Z. Gentry ($2,600 DraftKings/$4,600 FanDuel)

Cash: T. Brady, M. Evans, L. Fournette, Tampa DST

GPP: G. Pickens, K. Pickett

Ravens @ Giants (+5) (O/U 45)

Ravens

Lamar has been best known for using his legs at quarterback, and he will get plenty of work out of them against a New York team that gets trampled in the running game. Baltimore also has Dobbins back one game removed from his Achilles injury of last season and has room to eat here as well. Tight end Mark Andrews is an auto-start, and if wide-out Rashod Bateman sits this one out again, Devin Duvernay can be a nice value.

Giants

The Giants have been skating by through the season on their tough defense and Saquon Barkley, putting up a 4-1 record. Quarterback Daniel Jones also has been using his feet since the receiving core has been a graveyard due to injury. Keep an eye out for the rookie Wandale Robinson, if he can get on the field at his salary ($3,600 DraftKings/$4,900 FanDuel) against the Ravens’ 30th-ranked opposing defense, he can see a ton of reps and blow it up on Sunday.

Cash: L. Jackson, M. Andrews

GPP: D. Duvernay (if Bateman is out), J.K. Dobbins, W. Robinson

Update: Bateman is out

Niners @ Falcons (+5.5) (O/U 44)

Niners

San Fran would’ve liked to sink their teeth into another offense in Atlanta, except 6 of their starters on defense did not make the flight to Atlanta. If you’re looking to pay up for a defense this week, the Niners are a trap this weekend, stay away! There is a bright side to this bit of info, Jimmy G may have to actually turn it up a notch if the Niners do let the game start to slip away. We all know how bad the Falcons D is across the board by now, so a stack with Deebo, Aiyuk, or Kittle may be very sneaky…

Falcons

The Niner defense will be super short-handed getting off the plane in Atlanta (6 starters out), and the Falcons have been in every game to the end. Offensively they are a little short-handed themselves (Coradarrelle Patterson on IR, Kyle Pitts questionable and a non-factor). This leaves the fate in the hands of two rookies, Drake London to catch and Tyler Allgeier to run the ball for the Falcons. Leaning more toward London in his current situation, as the clear front-runner for target volume.

Cash: D. Samuel, D. London

GPP: J. Garoppolo, T. Allgeier, G. Kittle, B. Aiyuk

Bengals @ Saints (+2) (O/U 43.5)

Bengals

Burrow and Chase will be back home in the bayou this weekend, and believe me there will be fireworks. Shutdown corner Marshon Lattimore has already been ruled out, putting Bradley Roby on an island with Chase…uh oh. Tee Higgins is still bothered by an ankle and Hayden Hurst popped up with a groin injury late in the week, so pay attention to the reports. if they’re out we want a piece of Tyler Boyd. It will be a homecoming for Burrow and Chase in N’Orleans this Sunday, the writing is on the wall here folks.

Saints

On top of all the injuries on defense for the Saints, the offense is in pieces too. No Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry again, so it will be the Chris Olave show part two. If he can clear concussion protocols, Olave will be in line for a huge workload with quarterback Andy Dalton, who is filling in again for beat-up Jameis Winston. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to start the Cincinnati defense up in this spot too because of all the missing weaponry at receiver and quarterback. I know Kamara is there I know, but Cincinnati is 3rd in rushing DVOA so we really can’t focus on him this week.

Cash: J. Burrow, J. Chase, C. Olave (if he is cleared)

GPP: T. Boyd (if Higgins is out), Cincinnatti DST

Vikings @ Dolphins (+3) (O/U 45)

Vikings

Justin Jefferson is automatic here, you don’t need us to tell you that. And Cousins to get him the ball has an excellent mid-range salary that may interest some of us. If you could catch the Jets highlights run all over Miami last week, then you know where I’m headed. Dalvin Cook may steal the show and own the backfield since Alexander Mattison fell on the injury report. Facing a third-string quarterback in Miami, Cook may get extra carries to eat up the clock on a big lead in the second half.

Dolphins

No Tua again this week, 7th round rookie Skylar Thompson gets the start… but will he finish? He could be pulled after one or two series depending on his output. Coach McDaniel may have the option of putting in Teddy B if he is cleared for contact, to replace the rookie if he stinks it up. The water is just too muddy to pick up anybody in Miami this week because of the quarterback situation.

Cash: J. Jefferson, K. Cousins, D. Cook

GPP: None

Patriots @ Browns (-3) (O/U 42.5)

Patriots

The Pats will want to run the ball while their quarterback heals up from a high ankle sprain. Looks like Damien Harris may sit out another game and if he does it’s Rhamondre time again. In Harris’ absence last week the sophomore back averaged over 6 yards per carry (161 RuYDS). The Browns rank at the very bottom (32nd in DVOA) in run defense, a running back’s wet dream. Damien Harris sits, and Stevenson is a full go.

Browns

Now Cleveland can’t stop the run, but they can run right back at you with ease. With one of the best run-blocking O-lines in the league, opposing teams know he’s coming, but have not yet figured out how to stop him. The leading rusher in the NFL (593 RuYDS), Nick Chubb, exploded this year. Even while splitting the backfield with Kareem Hunt, Chubb is a bad man who at any point of the game can break off into the open field for 6.

Cash: R. Stevenson (if Harris is out), N. Chubb

GPP: None

Jaguars @ Colts (-2.5) (O/U 42)

Jaguars

All aboard… teams playing the Colts, start-up that D. The Jags have owned Indy for quite some time, and shut them out in their first meeting this season. We love Christian Kirk this season, but he came up short last week against Houston. Supposedly was a pretty nasty and wet day, even James Robinson took a step back last week. Kirk should be back on track this week and with no Shaq Leonard, Lawrence can get the ball to his number-one target.

Colts

Indy has become a one-dimensional team due to running back Jonathon Taylor’s time off the field. Their O-line is banged up, and little Matty Ice has been taking a pounding. If he can get the ball out quick enough, maybe he can hook up again with rookie Alec Pierce. In the win at Denver, he saw 9 targets, catching 8 for 81 yards. Thanks to all the pressure focused on stud teammate Michael Pittman Jr., Pierce will continue to feed off the weaker coverage.

Update: J. Taylor and N. Hines are out! Deon Jackson ($5,200DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) next man up (15FPTS in week 5)

Cash: C. Kirk, Jags DST

GPP: A. Pierce

Panthers @ Rams (-10.5) (O/U 40.5)

Panthers

Vince McMahon’s XFL superstar PJ Walker gets the start on the road, maybe he can provide some kind of spark for Carolina. The Matt Rhule era has finally come to an end, can the Panthers defeat the reigning Super Bowl champs on the road? We could care less, yeah McCaffrey should still be fine but let’s wait and see what happens in Carolina. Fade’em. Start that Rams’ D instead.

Rams

No need to mention the elephant in the room, Kupp is awesome, yes get him in. The real breaking news is Cam Akers is getting some personal time off this week, here we go…now we’re talkin’! Darrell Henderson’s time in the driver’s seat without Akers in the back seat, lock it up for a discount RB 2. But don’t forget about Stafford here either. His stock has fallen significantly from hitting a brick wall, mainly because of a few tough matchups. If he can keep from turning the ball over, which he should against Carolina, he’s could be a GPP hero.

Cash: D. Henderson, C. Kupp, Rams DST

GPP: M. Stafford

Cardinals @ Seahawks (+2.5) (O/U 51)

Cardinals

Kyler throwing into the horrific secondary of Seattle is sweet DFS music to my ears. The Cardinals need more wins under their belt, so Murray will lead the way. This will also be the last week before D Hop gets off suspension, so let’s enjoy Marquise Brown one more time before he gets fed less. But wait a sec, we have a free bee this week at running back, his name is Eno Benjamin. James Connor and backup Darrel Williams are both out, so Eno will own the backfield against one of the worst run defenses (30th in DVOA) in football.

Seahawks

Geno has made a name for himself again in the NFL, being the most accurate in the league (75% completion rating). He’s no slouch, and not afraid to sling it all over the field making D K Metcalf and Tyler Lockett both fantasy–friendly. On a sad note, the Seahawks lost running back Rashaad Penny for the year to a broken bone. Rookie top prospect Kenneth Walker III will take over as the lead back and will be a huge saving for your salary cap.

Cash: K. Murray, G. Smith, T. Lockett, D. Metcalf, E. Smith, M. Brown

GPP: K. Walker III

Bills @ Chiefs (+2.5) (O/U 54)

Bills

What’s better than a rematch of last year’s AFC Divisional series? Nothing. Allen, we all know who he is by now, set him at QB and forget it. Pretty much every starter is in play for the Bills, even more so now the news broke that Kansas City will be down two starting corners, and will be replaced with rookies. I can hear the tables breaking in Buffalo now by the Mafia. Diggs, Davis, and McKenzie sound good ya think? Singletary is in play too, the Chiefs play way too much zone allowing a bunch of points to opposing backs.

Chiefs

Now if the Bills do come out guns blazing and take a lead, Mahomes and Kelce will not go down without a fight. Buffalo’s defense is a little better than last year, adding Von Miller and other pieces, so Mahomes may need to flee the pocket more often this time around. The Bills are still banged up in the secondary and safety, giving Mahomes and his receivers a little more breathing room. We never know really where Andy Reid is headed in each game, except Kelce who is the cornerstone of the offense. Picking one of these KC receivers is like a game of darts though, try one or two in a GPP.

Cash: P. Mahomes, T. Kelce

GPP: M. Hardman, J. Smith-Schuster, M. Valdes-Scantling

Cash Core 4

J. Allen/E. Benjamin/C. Kupp/T. Kelce

GPP Core 4

J. Burrow/J. Chase/N. Chubb/M. Andrews

Stacks

J. Allen, S. Diggs, G. Davis/ P. Mahomes, T. Kelce, M. Hardman/G. Smith, T. Lockett, K. Walker K.Murray, M. Brown, E. Benjamin

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 6. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78. Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport. It’s been so much fun so far this season fellas, LFG!

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

Week 6 NFL Fantasy DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Tight Ends

Justin Elick 3 years ago

written by Justin Elick

Last week was a rough one for the Tight End position. Two of my guys ended up being ruled OUT late in the week. Taysom Hill (even HE doesn’t know if he is a TE) scored FOUR times, then Travis Kelce posted a quad score game on Monday night. I’d be willing to wager that no TE scores four times this week, let alone two…BUT we have some really juicy matchups this week. Let’s dig in for Week 6!

Be sure to jump into the WinDailySports Discord, and take advantage of our cheat sheets and projections while you build your lineups for Week 6 on FanDuel and DraftKings! After this week, we are officially one-third of the way through the NFL regular season!

Travis Kelce, Chiefs ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)

It seems like it has been forever since we could roster Kelce on the main slate, but he’s back for Week 6! His price has skyrocketed, and deservedly so. He was a touchdown machine on Monday night, but managed only seven catches for 25 yards on eight targets. He has now posted 24+ DraftKings points in three of five games.

The Bills are allowing under eight fantasy points per game to opposing Tight Ends in 2022. Travis Kelce cares very little for matchup. He has had plenty of success against the Bills, posting lines of 8/96/1, 6/57/1, and 5/65/2 in their last three matchups. No surprise here, but Kelce leads the NFL in Red Zone targets with 14.

He seems like a smart fade in tournaments, as his ownership should be through the roof. That said, a full fade for an MME player could be tough to swallow. I’m also never going to tell you not to play Mark Andrews, but you didn’t come here for me to tell you to roster all the most expensive players.

Will Dissly, Seahawks ($3,100 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel)

Hear me out. Dissly is dirt cheap, and has been a sneaky source of value this season. His DraftKings totals have been mostly solid: 13.3, 2.0, 12.4, 13.9, 4.1. He has yet to see more than four targets in a game in 2022, but has found the end zone three times in five games.

His matchup this week is one of the better ones, as Arizona ranks 31st in fantasy points allowed to opposing TE. Only the Buffalo/Kansas City has a higher total in Week 6 than the 51.5 in this one. Dissly doesn’t have immense upside, but he is a solid source of value.

Zach Ertz, Cardinals ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)

Remember this guy? I hate to sound like a broken record, but volume is king. Off the top of your head, how many TE have more targets than Ertz (37) over the last four weeks? Give up? The answer is one. Mark Andrews (39). Tyler Higbee also has 37 over that span, but I want no part of the disaster that is the Rams offense.

Back to our main man Ertz. While Zach has only bested 50 yards receiving once this season, a site like DraftKings that has full-point PPR is the perfect spot. He has scored in double-digits every week of the season. Did I mention that the Seahawks are allowing TWENTY-SIX fantasy points per game to opposing TE? That’s one spot worse, but a full seven points worse than the aforementioned Cardinals. I don’t hate the idea of throwing both him and Dissly into some lineups this weekend.

David Njoku, Browns ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)

I feel like Njoku is a player who will be criminally underowned this week. The Patriots have allowed more TD to opposing TE (5) than any team not named the Raiders. Njoku has been a tremendous asset for the surprisingly efficient Browns offense. Check out his last three games:

9/89/1 (10 targets)

5/73 (7)

6/88 (6)

He has been remarkably consistent, and not only are the Patriots 8th in the NFL against the run, but we all know Bill Belichick. He will be selling out to stop the best RB duo on the planet in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Njoku is my GPP special of the week.

Hayden Hurst, Bengals ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel)

This play is partially contingent on the status of Tee Higgins, but Hurst is an option even if Tee is a full go. The Bengals offense has struggled overall, but Hurst has been a bright spot the last two weeks. He has seen 11 targets over that span, totaling 9/80/2. He seems to have built a solid rapport with Joe Burrow, and I’m expecting that to continue here.

The Saints have allowed just seven fantasy points per game to opposing TE, but they haven’t exactly faced a gauntlet. Hurst doesn’t have massive upside here, but he should continue to have an important role in this offense.

Come find me on Twitter and let’s chat some football! Good luck in Week 6, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

Week 6 NFL Fantasy DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Tight Ends

Justin Elick 3 years ago

written by Justin Elick

Travis Kelce, Chiefs ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)

Will Dissly, Seahawks ($3,100 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel)

Zach Ertz, Cardinals ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)

David Njoku, Browns ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)

9/89/1 (10 targets)

5/73 (7)

6/88 (6)

Hayden Hurst, Bengals ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel)

Come find me on Twitter and let’s chat some football! Good luck in Week 6, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL Week 5 Showdown SNF DFS Picks DraftKings and FanDuel

Jared Contestabile 3 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

As the self-proclaimed biggest Cincinnati Bengals fan in the universe (for the record, the relationship has been EXTREMELY abusive over the last 30+ years), I can’t wait for this game. Not only are Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson two of the best QBs in the game, they are also two of the best personalities in the NFL. These two teams combined to score 58 and 62 points in their two meetings last season. Remember when Burrow set the NFL record for most passing yards against a single team in a season against these Ravens in 2021? Ok, that’s enough about Joe for now. Back to him soon. Let’s find the upside in this one.

DraftKings and FanDuel each have a slightly different setup for Showdown slates, with DraftKings using a “Captain” spot. Captain earns you 1.5X points, BUT also costs you 1.5X in salary. FanDuel uses an “MVP”, which is ALSO 1.5X points, but salaries are the same, regardless of position. DraftKings uses 5 FLEX spots, and FanDuel uses 4 “AnyFLEX” spots to fill out your roster.

Make sure to join our Discord to jump into our conversations with the team and share your successes (I am “Myrtle Beach Mermen”, if you understand the reference, we will get along right away! We have a TON of great tools for you to check out, make sure you’re taking advantage! You can find projections here and try out the optimizer here.

Captain/MVP Plays

Joe Burrow, Bengals ($15,900 DraftKings, $15,500 FanDuel)

Dictionary.com defines a masterpiece as “a consummate example of skill or excellence of any kind”. I can tell you with 100% certainty that phrase is in DIRECT reference to what Joe Burrow did to this Ravens team in 2021. If you are unaware, I am more than happy to present you with the numbers:

23/38, 416 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT

37/46, 525 yards, 4 TD

While it may be unwise to expect that type of production again, Burrow has an enormous ceiling here. Only the Raiders, Dolphins, and Lions have allowed more fantasy PPG to opposing QB this season. Burrow and the Bengals have been right at the league average with a 60% pass rate on offense. The Ravens have allowed almost 1000 yards to opposing WR alone.

This rivalry has become personal, and “Smokin’ Joe” is ready to fire up a stogie again.

Lamar Jackson, Ravens ($18,300 DraftKings, $17,000 FanDuel)

Listen, you can call me a homer whenever you want, but there is a reality in this one. The Bengals have been tough against the run in 2022. They have very solid safety play with Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell. The CB play has been solid. This sounds like Lamar hate. Trust me, it isn’t. I’m getting there. Here’s an interesting stat from Warren Sharp (@sharpfootball):

Lamar Jackson 2022 splits with Rashod Bateman on or off the field :

Bateman ON the field (81 att): +0.14 EPA/att, 8.8 YPA, 9 TD, 1 INT

Bateman OFF the field (36 att): -0.18 EPA/att, 4.9 YPA, 2 TD, 3 INT

Lamar will have to put the world on his shoulders in this one with Marquise Brown thriving in Arizona and Bateman already ruled OUT for this one. Running the ball is certainly an option if the game is close, especially with Cincinnati still missing DJ Reader. Lamar is priced like someone who will be expected to shoulder the entire offense load, and he is as capable as anyone of doing it.

Lamar is averaging over 32 DraftKings PPG this season, and that is INCLUDING last week against Buffalo where he totaled just 15.06. He has rushed for 119, 107, and 73 yards in his last three games. If this game turns into a shootout, no Lamar could mean no cash.

JaMarr Chase, Bengals ($16,500 DraftKings, $13,500 FanDuel)

There are two types of people in this world.

Person 1: People like you and I, who watched and saw JaMarr pull off an insane spin move at full speed during a TD against these Ravens.

Person 2: People who are in denial about the sheer greatness that is JaMarr Chase. Much like fellow sports legend Ricky Bobby, Chase wakes up in the morning and pisses excellence. He averaged 163 yards per game against the Ravens during his spectacular rookie campaign.

I can’t guarantee you a certain number of fantasy points for Chase here, but I can guarantee you one thing. The relationship between JaMarr Chase and Joe Burrow has lasted longer than most of the relationships you or I have ever or will ever have.

Only Marquise Brown has had more offensive snaps than Chase in 2022. Only six WR have had more targets through Week 4 than Chase’s 41.

The bad? He hasn’t reached the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings since Week 1. He only has two scores on the season.

The good? He also has the 4th-most red zone targets among WR and the 2nd-most targets inside the 10. The breakout game is coming, and what better time than a divisional battle against a Ravens secondary that is allowing 50, yes FIFTY, fantasy PPG to opposing WR in 2022?

If you don’t play JaMarr on Sunday night, you may need a miracle to chase down a GPP.

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

Devin Duvernay, Ravens ($5,600 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)

As mentioned above, Rashod Bateman won’t be suiting up Sunday Night. Duvernay led the Ravens’ WRs with 45 snaps last week, and someone is going to have to pick up the slack here. I’m expecting plenty of points in this one, and Lamar needs some support from his wideouts for once.

Duvernay had a season-high five targets last week, and has already found the end zone three times in 2022. I like him quite a bit here. Added bonus? He returns kicks and is one of the best in the game at doing it. His ceiling is even higher than you may think.

J.K. Dobbins, Ravens ($7,000 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel)

Listen, I’ve seen people on Twitter saying that you’re chasing points with Dobbins in this one, but I’ll respectfully disagree. He has been on the field for 36 passing snaps since he returned in Week 3, and has run a route on 28 of them. He had 13 of the 22 carries by a Ravens RB, and should be a focal point of the offense here once again. I already mentioned the absence of DJ Reader, and the Bengals may be missing him in a major way on Sunday night if Dobbins gets going.

Joe Mixon, Bengals ($8,800 DraftKings, $12,500 FanDuel)

This could be the Skyline Chili fan in me, but I do believe that the Bengals win this game handily. If that is the case, the Bengals will turn to Mixon to slam the door shut. Baltimore is 22nd in the NFL in fantasy points allowed per game to opposing RB. Mixon is a workhorse who has seen more snaps at RB than any player not named Saquon Barkley. He is viable in the bonus spot too, so don’t forget about him if you are doing MME.

I’ll never try to talk you out of playing my dude Tee Higgins, but I can’t just list the most expensive guys across the board. Tee has shown that he is as good as any WR in the game and we all know how suspect this Baltimore secondary has become.

I’ll go ahead and give you my fade of the night. Mark Andrews. In his last two games against the Bengals with Lamar Jackson on the field, he has totaled 7/75. Of course he could explode at any time, but I’m betting on Logan Wilson and company to focus on taking him out of the game. I’m not saying it will be a complete shut down, but I’m taking my chances on him not paying off a high price tag. Leverage play for me.

Other Options

Tyler Boyd has 5+ targets in three of four games this season, and Hayden Hurst has 7+ in two games. In a shootout, they are cheap pieces to consider.

Gimme some Cincinnati defense here. I could see a performance much like the 49ers vs. Rams we took advantage of last week.

Demarcus Robinson saw nearly 40 snaps last week, and Lamar could send a few extra looks his way this week with Bateman out.

In case you didn’t know, Justin Tucker and Evan McPherson may just be the two best kickers underneath the sun. I’m fairly certain either one of them could kick a ball “over them mountains”, Uncle Rico style too. You’re going to want some exposure to these two.

Good luck on Sunday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter @BigItaly42 if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports Premium

NFL DraftKings and FanDuel DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 5

Capper Steve 3 years ago

written by Capper Steve

What a season so far, one month’s worth of NFL here and gone! Injuries are piling up left and right, and Week 5 ‘s slate has not one game with a 50-point total so far. Our projection models stay sharp and help us dial in on every matchup for the best players to draft in DFS. This slate is not Remember we’re all in here to help, our team is here 24/7 in our discord chat, tag me @JDiCarlo78#5965 for any questions about your lineup builds anytime guys, now let’s break down Week 5!

Sunday Main Slate 10/9/22

Steelers @ Bills (-14) (O/U 47)

Steelers

Kenny Pickett will get the full start against one of the top-ranked defenses in Buffalo, not the ideal landing spot for the rookie. He did provide a spark into the Steeler offense and displayed a bromance with fellow rookie George Pickens catching 6 balls for 102 yards against the Jets. But I’m fading Pittsburgh this weekend with their rookie quarterback on the road, the Bills’ D deserves the respect.

Bills

The Steelers will still be without T J Watt this weekend, so it’s safe to assume Josh Allen will have not as much pressure to work the Bills’ offense. I just can’t see using too many other Buffalo players in this game as they are 2 touchdown favorites. Let’s keep it simple here and use Allen with the Bills’ DST in this heavily lopsided matchup.

Cash: J. Allen, Bills DST

GPP: None

Falcons @ Bucs (-9) (O/U 48)

Falcons

The wheels are beginning to fall off for Falcons’ quarterback Marcus Mariota, especially after what we saw last week (7 for 19/139YDS/1 INT/1 FUM) so we won’t touch him. The big news in Atlanta is Patterson landing on IR forcing the rookie Tyler Allgeier to take over the backfield, who averaged 8 yards per carry and caught a 20-yard pass last week. Kyle Pitts Won’t make the trip to Tampa due to injury, so Drake London will be a target funnel for Mariota this Sunday.

Bucs

In a losing effort, Brady put up a monster (39-52/385 YD/3 TD) at home against Kansas City, and now that the divorce news broke with the supermodel wife, we may get a pissed-off Tom Brady chucking it all over the Falcons’ weak secondary. His arsenal is at full strength with Evans, Godwin, and Fournette making Brady a solid play. Tampa coming off that tough Sunday night loss will get their redemption in Week 5.

Cash: T. Brady, M. Evans, L. Fournette, C. Godwin

GPP: D. London, T. Allgeier

Dolphins @ Jets (+3) (O/U 44)

Dolphins

The nine-year vet Teddy “Two Gloves” will fill in for the concussed Tagovailoa and should be able to slide right in at quarterback. He’ll have two of the fastest receivers in the NFL at his disposal and a playbook from head coach Mike McDaniel on how to use them. The experience Bridgewater brings to the field may be an upgrade to the offense, against a cushy Jets defense that has allowed over 25 points per game. Give me a Dolphin stack this Sunday in GPP, but Hill and Waddle are safe for cash games.

Jets

If you’re looking for a safe play in New York, tight-end Tyler Conklin has been the most reliable of all Jet pass catchers. Flacco leaned heavily on him in the first three games and Zach Wilson fed him 3 receptions for 54 yards. He’s always hovering below $4K on DraftKings, take advantage of his low salary before the sites catch up with his production.

Cash: T. Hill, J. Waddle

GPP: T. Bridgewater, T. Conklin

Bears @ Vikings (-7) (O/U 44)

Bears

Run Chicago…run the ball. Even if you’re down two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, just feed it to Khalil Herbert. We can’t trust this offense regardless of the matchup for the Bears. Herbert was a solid play last week but David Montgomery may be back this week and opposing defenses are beginning to sniff them out, blitzing and daring Fields to throw. Until we see some improvement in the offense let’s stay away from Chicago.

Vikings

Chicago really slows down the pace of their games and Vegas lets us know with a total of 44. So we should really not look to use much salary cap here in this game whatsoever, Justin Jefferson will eat here for sure but he may not reach value because of game flow. If you do want a piece of action from Minnesota, tight-end Irv Smith is affordable ($3,200 DraftKings/$4,700 FanDuel) and should see the least amount of coverage by the Bears’ defense. The Minnesota DST also interests me because Chicago struggles to put points on the board, but they’re not cheap. If you have the cap space great, if not, don’t go out of your way.

Cash: Minnesota DST, Justin Jefferson

GPP: I. Smith

Chargers @ Browns (+3) (O/U 47.5)

Chargers

It was only Week 2 when Joe Flacco lit up this suspect Cleveland secondary with the likes of Garret Wilson and Corey Davis for (307PaYD/4 TDs) Justin Herbert is fully capable of crushing here too and on Draftkings he’s a steal at ($7,100). Mike Williams pops off but can also end up on a milk carton sometimes, so keep an eye out for Keenan Allen’s status. If he is out another game, tight end Gerald Everett has been the beneficiary.

Browns

Cleveland will continue to ride their stud Nick Chubb and pound the rock into LA’s 30th DVOA run defense. If it hasn’t broken, don’t fix it. Nobody has yet to contain Cleveland’s run-heavy offense so why wouldn’t we see more of the Chubb/Hunt show this weekend? But Cleveland will still need to throw, and tight end Njoku owns the snap-share in Cleveland (92%). Amari Cooper has also solidified himself as the alpha dog at receiver, both are mid-range in salary and viable in your lineups.

Cash: J. Herbert, M. Williams

GPP: G. Everett, D. Njoku, N. Chubb, A. Cooper

Texans @ Jaguars (-7) (O/U 44.5)

Texans

The rookie bell cow Dameon Pierce has looked incredible these past two games rushing for 211 total yards and 2 touchdowns. The Jags are coming off a loss in Phila and were gashed by Miles Sanders’ (134-yard/2 touchdown) showing. Give me Pierce in this spot, Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins here too. When two teams with bad defenses collide, the football moves on both sides of the field.

Jaguars

Jacksonville will need a little pick-me-up after that ass-whopping they took in Phila, Lawrence had a little deja-vu of 2021 Trevor turning the ball over. But the weather was wet and slippery, He’ll shake it off at home against Houston in a bounce-back game. Kirk his go-to guy will be in the mix and Robinson should also get plenty of work on the worst-ranked run defense in the league.

Cash: D. Pierce, B. Cooks, J. Robinson, C. Kirk

GPP: N. Collins, T. Lawrence

Lions @ Patriots (-3) (O/U 46.5)

Lions

Beware of this game guys. Jared Goff on the road, outdoors, facing a Bill Belichick defense throws up too many red flags. No word yet on Amon-Ra St. Brown’s ankle and D’Andre Swift looks to be shelved until after Detroit’s bye week. Jamaal Williams and Hockenson looked awesome last week but that was Seattle at home and the Patriot defense can still show up here. Salaries are up on everybody too, so I’m going to play it safe, but if there was a Lion to use if Amon is out, pick up the Hock.

Patriots

Both Patriot running backs are in play fellas, the 31st in DVOA against the run Lions are in town and New England may be starting third-string quarterback Bailey Zappe. Harris and Stevenson should see plenty of volume in the backfield, but we can lean more toward Rhamondre for pass-catching opportunities.

Cash: D. Harris, R. Stevenson, T J Hockenson (A. St. Brown out)

GPP: None

Titans @ Commanders (+2.5) (O/U 42.5)

Titans

Derrick Henry has a heartbeat again in fantasy football. Over the last two games, he has averaged close to 5 yards per carry and a touchdown. Tennessee will continue to make him the focal point of the offense. But I’m more interested in Robert Woods for this game. Treylon Burks is out this weekend so St.-Juste will line up across from either Woods or Kyle Phillips who can easily burn him for chunks of yardage out of the slot.

Commanders

This Sunday Carson Wentz can break out of his slump when the second-worst secondary in the league comes into town. The Titans’ Kristian Fulton is A turnstile for receiver fantasy points so get McLaurin and Samuel in your lineups this weekend.

Cash: R. Woods, T. McLaurin

GPP: C. Wentz, C. Samuel, K. Phillips

Seahawks @ Saints (-5.5) (O/U 46)

Seahawks

Geno Smith and the Seahawks really came through for us last week in DFS, but we can’t go down that road again facing this tough New Orleans defense. D K Metcalf should see a ton of Lattimore and if the Seahawks will be playing catch-up, Lockett may benefit from the opposite side with some shaky Bradley Roby coverage.

Saints

So we have a couple of Interesting plays for the Saints. Running back Alvin Kamara says he’s going to play on Sunday, but can we trust him to produce at his high-mid-range salary? I think he’s usable and very sneaky for GPP, we have seen him score six touchdowns in one game! The safe guy here is Chris Olave. Michael Thomas just can’t stay healthy and Jarvis Landry still has an ankle issue. The rookie Olave has scored double-digit fantasy points in three of four contests this season.

Update: J. Winston and M. Thomas are Out

Cash: C. Olave

GPP: A. Kamara, T. Lockett

Niners @ Panthers (+6.5) (O/U 38.5)

Niners

After what we witnessed on Monday night against the defending champs, San Fran has the defense to beat in the NFC. Sack after sack, the safety Hufonga pick-six, I’m sold. I know the Rams’ O-line is a mess, but no question the Niners are a legitimate contender. I can see the highlights now of Baker getting smashed in the mouth. Very low total here fellas, so let’s start that D if you have the space, and a stack with Jeff Wilson Jr. would not be a bad idea too.

Panthers

See above, we can’t risk any spots in our cash game/GPP lineups on this Baker-Mayfield-led trainwreck of an offense, especially against the Niners. Even though McCaffrey has been solid over the course of the season, it’s best to stay away from all the pieces of Carolina, mainly because we can’t trust Baker or the coaching staff.

Cash: Niners DST, Jeff Wilson Jr.

GPP: None

Eagles @ Cardinals (+5.5) (O/U 49)

Eagles

Jalen Hurts needs no intro these days, his numbers speak for themselves. 27 fantasy points in three of four games. He’s in a position to smash again in Arizona, who have bled value to opposing quarterbacks (Week 1, 360 PaYd/5 PaTD – P. Mahomes) in previous QB1 matchups. The Cards continue to neglect opposing tight ends (31st in DVOA), give me one of the most trustworthy ones in football this week – Dallas Goedert

Cardinals

Philly’s defense has been devastating this season (4th in DVOA to quarterbacks), which makes Murray a no-brainer to fade. Marquise Brown, Greg Dortch, and Rondale Moore are all less than 100% healthy which makes tight end Zach Ertz the most dependable target for Murray this Sunday. The icing on the cake for Ertz is the revenge game he’s got going on against the team who let him go last season after helping them win Super Bowl LII.

Cash: J. Hurts, D. Goedert

GPP: Z. Ertz

Cowboys @ Rams (-4.5) (O/U 43)

Cowboys

LA’s Jalen Ramsey is no longer a threat from what we’ve seen this season. The Rams are dead last in DVOA to opposing receivers giving us the green light to drop Lamb in our lineups. But Dallas can also get to the quarterback already logging 15 sacks in 4 games. On DraftKings, they are slightly above the minimum salary ($2,500) and a huge cap saver against a My Pillow offensive line in LA.

Rams

Kupp or Higbee for the Rams… that’s the offense. LA’s O-line deficiencies have cost them their running game. LA has been a riches-to-rags story this year and until Shawn McVey can figure out what to do it’s best we stay clear from everyone else besides Kupp and Higbee.

Cash: C. Kupp, T. Higbee, Cowboys DST

GPP: C. Lamb

Cash Core 4

J. Allen/L. Fournette/C. Kupp/D. Goedert

GPP Core 4

T. Bridgewater/J. Robinson/J. Waddle/Z. Ertz

Stacks

T. Brady/C. Godwin/M. Evans J. Hurts/D. Hurts T. Bridgewater/T. Hill/J. Waddle J. Herbert/M. Williams

J. Wilson/Niners DST

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 5. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78. Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

Stix Picks: Week 5 NFL DFS GPP Lineups

StixPicks 3 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” Hopefully everyone is safe from the Hurricane and ready to decompress with some NFL football! The NFL season is here and it feels like Christmas morning. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 5 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts ($8,100 DK / $8,600 FD)

This is one of the few games with a higher total that I actually believe can go relatively back-and-forth. Both teams play at a high tempo and both teams have healthy, explosive playmakers. I really cannot say that for many of the games on this slate. I’m rolling out Hurts in all formats with the expectation this is a ceiling type of game in the dome for Jalen Hurts.

Stacking Options: AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Miles Sanders
Run-Back Options: Marquise Brown, Zach Ertz, Rondale Moore, James Conner

Andy Dalton ($5,200 DK / $6,500 FD)

Similar to Jalen Hurts in the Eagles @ Philadelphia, the Seahawks @ Saints is one of the few games on this slate I truly believe have “game-stack ability”. Quite frankly, this is a week where I’m not too focused on correlation but more so pivots against the heavy chalk running backs. In terms of value, the AETY Model grades Andy Dalton as the #1 value quarterback on the slate and that makes a lot of sense as Seattle has been getting carved by all passing attacks, including a decimated Detroit Lions offense last week.

As long as Seattle can stay in this game (I have very little doubt that they will), this game offers the NFL DFS GPP players a sneaky shootout.

Stacking Options: Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara
Run-Back Options: Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Rashaad Penny

Honorable Mention: Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Kirk Cousins, Carson Wentz

NFL DFS GPP Running Backs

Derrick Henry ($8,200 DK / $8,900 FD)

Derrick Henry is quietly heating up and the ownership has yet to flock his way. The best thing about Derrick Henry right now is that he’s received a 23% target share in the passing attack over the past two weeks. With no Treylon Burks, this offense will (and always has) run through Derrick Henry. It’s not the best matchup in the world, but when Henry gets hot, he gets scorching hot. Outside of no more Taylor Lewan, this offensive line is healthy and ready to roll.

Nick Chubb ($8,000 DK / $9,400 FD)

The Chargers are currently giving up almost five and a half yards per carry. With a 3-5% owned Nick Chubb, what else do you need me to say? This game should be a bit more back-and-forth than people think and Vegas agrees, as we currently have a 47-point total. As always, our concerns with Nick Chubb on DraftKings is that he doesn’t catch passes, so if you’re rostering Chubb, you’re investing in the script that he goes for over 100 rushing yards and multiple touchdowns… which is certainly possible anytime Chubb steps on the field.

Miles Sanders ($6,500 DK / $7,600 FD)

A sub-5% owned Sanders against a dreadful Arizona defense. As everyone looks for the “safer” plays at this price-point (Leonard Fournette, Jamaal Williams, and Alvin Kamara), the NFL DFS GPP community is completely overlooking Miles Sanders. The AETY Model has Miles Sanders as the 7th best running back value on this slate and the ownership projections have Sanders as the 20th rostered running back. I’ll take that edge on the DFS field all day long and ensure myself a piece of every touchdown for the Eagles via Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders.

James Robinson ($6,300 DK / $8,000 FD)

In the same tier as Miles Sanders is James Robinson. Robinson is a significant value on DraftKings specifically but in play on FanDuel as well. I’m currently seeing ownership projections at 2-3% for the lead back of the Jaguars, at home, going up against the Texans run defense that grades 29th in DVOA. This is an absolute smash spot and extreme leverage off of a 20% owned stack of Trevor Lawrence and Christian Kirk. Let’s ride my alma mater’s best running back in James Robinson!

Honorable Mention: Austin Ekeler, Dalvin Cook, James Conner

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

Honestly, DraftKings made a lot of questionable price-tags this week and I really do like the chalk wide receivers from the Week 5 Cash Game Checkdown. My thought there is to use the obvious high-upside values and get different at the running back position above. Here are some other wide receivers I’m interested in rostering pending the lineup construction:

Stefon Diggs
Mike Evans
Tyreek Hill (stacked up with Teddy Bridgewater and Jaylen Waddle if Tyreek is healthy)
Deebo Samuel (crazy low ownership for the highest floor and arguably highest upside at the position and nice pivot off of Jeff Wilson chalk)
AJ Brown / DeVonta Smith (weekly pick on Marco Wilson matchup and easy stack with Hurts)
Marquise Brown (sub 5% due to the field being scared of the potential Darius Slay shadow)
Adam Thielen (1% owned, high-upside against the worst secondary in the NFL)
Terry McLaurin / Curtis Samuel (no Jahan Dotson and a matchup against the 2nd worst secondary in the NFL)
George Pickens
Khalil Shakir (significant sneaky value and excellent coverage matchup IF Isaiah McKenzie is OUT)

NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends

To be as transparent as possible, I’ll be using a TON of O.J. Howard ($2,600 DK / $4,500 FD) due to the savings offered and coverage thoughts from the Week 5 Cash Game Checkdown. I understand if that is not in your appetite but I’m really trying to pay up at Quarterback/Wide Receiver/Defense (yes, Defense) and get different at the running back position. Howard is scary as hell to roster at a high clip, but he opens up a lot for my builds when there really isn’t any tight-end on the slate that I worry will score 20+ points.

Honorable Mention: Dallas Goedert, Zach Ertz, David Njoku, Gerald Everett

3 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL Premium

Week 5 NFL Fantasy DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Tight Ends

Justin Elick 3 years ago

written by Justin Elick

Listen, I feel guilty for not recommending TJ Hockenson last week. Of course we all saw 93 points coming in that game, and I should have been all over it! I kid, of course, and congrats to all who had TJ. He truly broke the slate at TE. Now that we are in Week 5, our goal is to find the TJ this week (maybe it IS TJ). Let’s get right to it.

Be sure to jump into the WinDailySports Discord, and take advantage of our cheat sheets and projections while you build your lineups for Week 4 on DraftKings and FanDuel! Crazy to think that after this week, we are already almost 25% of the way through the NFL season!

Logan Thomas, Commanders ($3,200 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)

Maybe I’m just an old curmudgeon, but typing the word “Commanders” for an NFL team makes me feel like I’m playing an unlicensed version of Madden. Nevertheless, Thomas is a sneaky good play this week. Jahan Dotson seems very unlikely to play on Sunday, and Thomas should be one of the main beneficiaries.

After running routes on only about 76% of his snaps Weeks 1-2, Thomas ran a route on over 94% each of the last two weeks. He was targeted six times against Dallas on Sunday, but pulled in just five balls for 19 yards. It’s easy to blame Carson Wentz, who is undoubtedly the man staring back at you when you Google “QBs who are terrible in real life but fantasy relevant”.

Washington faces the Titans this week, and only the Seahawks (thanks to Hockenson) are allowing more fantasy points per game to opposing TE.

Zach Ertz, Cardinals ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)

I’m fairly certain that Ertz has been in this article every week so far this season. I can’t imagine that changing, regardless of matchup, until DeAndre Hopkins returns. Check out where our guy Zach ranks among TE since Week 2.

Snap counts: 1st, 1st, 7th.

Targets: T1st, T2nd, T7th.

The opportunities are there, and the only reason he saw a SLIGHT dip last week was the fact that the Cardinals weren’t playing from behind for once. I’ll be betting that they’ll be playing from behind again this week against the 4-0 Eagles.

If you’re into this sort of thing, we can call this one a revenge game for Ertz. This will be his first time facing his former team. The matchup isn’t great of course, but the volume should be elite once again.

Dallas Goedert, Eagles ($4,700 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel)

Last week we discussed two TE who were facing each other, and this week our featured matchup is Goedert vs Ertz. Dallas has 16 targets over his last three games, and draws a juicy matchup against the Cardinals. They rank 30th in the NFL against TE, allowing over 20 fantasy points per game.

This game has a total hovering around 50 points, and Goedert has continued to deliver. He has 11+ DraftKings points in each of his last three games.

TJ Hockenson, Lions ($4,900 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)

FanDuel and DraftKings were quick to make Hockenson the most expensive TE on the main slate, but this is again a slate missing Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. I think he’s a decent fade in tournaments, as his game last week should see his ownership skyrocket.

However, this is actually a pretty good spot for Hock. The Patriots have allowed the most touchdowns in the NFL to opposing TE (5), and the Lions lead the NFL with 35 PPG. To me, playing or not playing Hock in tournaments comes down to the status of Amon-Ra St. Brown and DeAndre Swift. If both are out, you’ll need shares of him. If just Sun God sits, he’s viable as well.

Kyle Pitts, Falcons ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)

Here’s an idea. Let’s ignore last week’s debacle (one catch for 25 yards on four targets) and take advantage of some recency bias. The perfect time to target a player at low ownership is immediately after they disappoint. The DFS world is less than pleased with Pitts, and for good reason. But hear me out.

Cordarrelle Patterson has been placed on the IR, and Atlanta doesn’t truly have much experience in the backfield. The offense will be relying on their young duo of Pitts and Drake London against the Bucs.

Pitts only played 62% of the snaps last week, but had his highest rate of routes run on the season (92.3%). The Falcons are 8.5-point underdogs in a game with a total around 49. This is the perfect game script for Pitts and company to post some fantasy goodness. Tampa Bay has allowed the 2nd-most receptions to opposing TE this season. One time, Kyle. Let’s run it back.

Come find me on Twitter and let’s chat some football! Good luck in Week 5, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

Newer Posts

Older Posts