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NFL DFS Double Ups

NFL DFS Week 14: StixPicks (Cash and GPP)

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

Monster Week 13 for the Win Daily family! The Discord Diamond, Trent Sherfield paid off in bunches, though I didn’t expect it to happen the way that it did (we were lucky with that as he only had one reception, but it was a 75-yard house call). Let’s keep it rolling for our Week 14 NFL DFS cash game and GPP breakdown. As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Good luck this week!

SLATE NOTES: This is a unique slate with only one game possessing a total over 50-points and that will certainly bring a lot of condensed chalk. I won’t write about the top-tier quarterbacks because this slate seems to scream play down towards the value quarterbacks, but if you want to get different, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen will all be around 5% ownership in NFL DFS GPP tournaments.

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow ($7,000 DK / $8,300 FD) – Burrow is the obvious “value” in terms of the top tier quarterbacks who regularly put up solid fantasy outputs. This is one of the higher total games on the slate at 47.5-points and Burrow has been on a tear of late. All of his weapons are back and healthy and the addition of Joe Mixon should really open up this offense as a whole, against the Cleveland Browns 27th ranked defense in total DVOA. Burrow is one of the few who are getting massive respect from the sportsbooks with a passing prop around 280 yards and a passing touchdown prop showing an implied probability of 2+ passing touchdowns.

Stack Options: Ja’Maar Chase, Tee Higgins, Joe Mixon
Run-Back Options: Amari Cooper, Nick Chubb
Jared Goff ($5,600 DK / $7,100 FD) – Hello Mr. Chalk, Jared Goff. If that sounds absolutely disgusting to you, I don’t blame you. I have dug into this slate in every single way that I can in hopes to find a strong reason to fade Jared Goff… I was unsuccessful. Simply put, on DraftKings, Jared Goff is going to be 70% owned in cash games and likely 30-40% owned in NFL DFS GPP contests. That is absurd, but it makes sense in this matchup.

Having said that, as much as I would like to get different in my main lineup (I’m using Goff in cash regardless), I cannot find a lineup construction that offers the high-floor and high-ceiling combo that I get when I do start my build with Jared Goff. So, in order for me to get different when using Goff, I’m going IN on this Minnesota @ Detroit game-stack. And when I mean “IN”, I mean all the way the f*** in. Based on early ownership projections, the field is going to pair Goff with Amon-Ra St. Brown and run it back with Justin Jefferson. That is the chalk trio of the week (in addition to Greg Dulcich who we will discuss later). If those are your first four clicks of your lineup, good luck cashing this week unless you get significantly different elsewhere.

So, my plan of attack is to get even more exposure to this game and I’ll do that by adding DJ Chark to that Amon-Ra/Goff pairing (double-stacking it) and running it back with Justin Jefferson AND Dalvin Cook.

My narrative here: Minnesota has no issues moving the football and I want their two biggest touchdown threats in Cook and Jefferson. In return, I want Goff and the Lions to have to rely on the air attack and using their two biggest red-zone threats in St. Brown and DJ Chark. If this game script goes in favor of Jamaal Williams for NFL DFS lineups, I’m in trouble (hint: maybe that is your way to get different in this game).

Stack Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Chark, D’Andre Swift
Run-Back Options: Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook, TJ Hockenson, Adam Thielen
Russell Wilson ($5,100 DK / $6,500 FD) – VOMIT ALERT! I’ve had a lot of success recently by using a pure punt quarterback and pairing them with a cheap pass-catcher. As mentioned above, Greg Dulcich is going to be the highest owned player on this slate, and for good reason. The negative gamescript (assuming Kansas City has their way with Denver) bodes great for Dulcich and possibly Jerry Jeudy (Courtland Sutton is OUT). I look at Dulcich the same way I looked at Pat Freiermuth last week. He’s a valuable, chalk tight-end who is a top-two target in their offense, in a good matchup.

So, like Kenny Pickett last week (he honestly didn’t get there, but my lineups did due to the price of Pickett and Freiermuth allowing me to fill my lineup with studs), I need Wilson to find a way to get 15+ points and be efficient in the red-zone. Similar to Pickett, Russell Wilson has a bit of a rushing floor that not many quarterbacks on this slate have other than Tyler Huntley, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes. Huntley is the only one in the same price-tier as Wilson, but I have no interest in Huntley against the Steelers defense (maybe I’m right on that fade, maybe I’m wrong… I’m not telling you not to play Huntley… he offers great leverage if you think the Steelers’ defense chalk can fail).

*I have no interest in Kendall Hinton.

Stack Options: Greg Dulcich, Jerry Jeudy
Run-Back Options: Travis Kelce, Isiah Pachecho, JuJu Smith-Schuster

Honorable Mention: Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith (incredible leverage play against the chalk Panthers’ defense)

NFL DFS Running Backs

Derrick Henry ($7,900 DK / $9,000 FD) – Derrick Henry was a non-factor last week against a very stout Eagles’ run defense (thanks a lot to Jordan Davis). Henry was flat-out gamescripted out of that contest in a hurry. This week, things get a bit easier for Derrick Henry as he’ll be at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars in a more neutral, if not positive gamescript. Jacksonville’s run defense is much improved this year, but Derrick Henry has the highest implied probability for a touchdown and rushing yards in both the AETY Model and sportsbooks this week.
Dalvin Cook ($7,300 DK / $8,700 FD) – Spoke more about Dalvin Cook above with Jared Goff. Priority play for me in NFL DFS GPP contests on DraftKings specifically.
Joe Mixon ($6,900 DK / $8,500 FD) – Mixon is back from concussion protocol and is likely to be the highest owned running back on the slate as this is the “nuts” matchup against the Browns’ 31st ranked run defense (DVOA). In cash, you likely need to take the chalk route and ride Mixon, but in NFL DFS GPP contests, I have my reservations. It seems as if some of the public is worried about Samaje Perine carving out himself a sustainable role in this offense… Some in this industry think that is nonsense, others think it has some teeth.

I am one of those that thinks Perine getting respectable snaps is a real possibility. I look at it this way: the Bengals are a much better football team when both Mixon and Perine are healthy. This is a team with Superbowl aspirations and Superbowl talent. I find it hard to believe that the Bengals would ask Joe Mixon to pass block and take all of the third-down work when Samaje Perine has proven he is very capable of doing so himself. Maybe I am wrong, but I’d much rather find the extra $400 on DraftKings this week in GPP contests and pay-up for Dalvin Cook at half the ownership. If Mixon comes out and doesn’t leave the field, I’ll sleep just fine knowing that’s how I didn’t have a great fantasy weekend.
Isiah Pachecho ($5,700 DK / $7,300 FD) – Cheap exposure to the Kansas City offense in a plus matchup where they are projected to have a significant lead throughout this game. I’m going right back to the well on Isiah Pachecho this week and almost took down $100,000 because of him last week (if Travis Kelce doesn’t fumble on that put-away drive, I likely get the 2-3 extra points from Pacheco to take down the tournament… sigh). Pacheco is starting to ramp up his route running (only three less routes than McKinnon last week) and that mid-season narrative that he doesn’t catch passes is slowly going by the waste side. Go get yourself two touchdowns, Mr. Pacheco!

*UPDATE: I’ll keep an eye on Leonard Fournette. If he is OUT, Rachaad White becomes a cash-game freesquare and viable in GPP contests as well.

Honorable Mention: Tony Pollard, Ezekiel Elliott, Jamaal Williams, D’Andre Swift, D’Onta Foreman, James Cook (risky as hell but the sportsbooks opened his rushing prop equal to their RB1, Devin Singletary)

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

*Some of these plays below are no-brainers that you already know are in a fantastic fantasy environment for both NFL DFS cash games and GPP lineups, so I’ll spare you some time and skip their write-ups.

Justin Jefferson ($9,000 DK / $9,300 FD)
AJ Brown ($8,000 DK / $8,400 FD) & Devonta Smith ($6,300 DK / $7,000 FD) – Jalen Hurts is my favorite quarterback on this slate but the price is significant if you’re trying to get quality exposure to Minnesota and Detroit. If you can find a creative way to do so (or full-fade that game), AJ Brown and Devonta Smith are in incredible matchups here against the Giants’ 28th ranked pass defense (DVOA). Both of these Eagles’ wideouts tear up Cover-1 and Cover-3 defense and that is what we will see in New York.
Ja’Maar Chase ($7,900 DK / $8,700 FD)
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800 DK / $8,600 FD)
DK Metcalf ($7,100 DK / $7,900 FD) & Tyler Lockett ($6,500 DK / $7,700 FD) – My second favorite low-owned stack (behind the Eagles) is the Seattle Seahawks against a respectable Carolina secondary. Despite the Carolina Panthers having a solid, healthy secondary, you know how I feel about DK Metcalf… you cannot cover him. The Panthers are likely to be 20% or more in ownership in all NFL DFS contests this weekend and simply using the Seahawks’ passing attack against their Cover-3 and Cover-4 zone defense is beautiful tournament leverage.
DJ Moore ($5,500 DK / $6,900 FD) – Moore is the only game in town for this Carolina passing attack and will likely receive a significant amount of ownership. In cash games, that is something we’ll want to ride and if you want to take the cheap WR1 in NFL DFS GPP contests, I’m okay with it as he offers a perfect, value run-back to Seattle stacks.
Jerry Jeudy ($5,400 DK / $6,500 FD) – If I’m playing Russell Wilson, I have to be interested in his top pass-catcher in Jerry Jeudy now that Courtland Sutton is out. Kendall Hinton drawing 10% ownership is laughable. I’ll ride with one of the best route runners in the NFL in a likely negative gamescript against a beatable Chiefs’ secondary. Jeudy is an excellent 2% owned pivot off of DJ Moore chalk, but you would have to trust Russell Wilson if you’re playing Jeudy… that is tough to do and this play is not for the faint of heart.
Zay Jones ($4,700 DK / $6,300 FD) – Not a big fan of tooting the own horn, but how dead on were we last week about fading Zay Jones and jamming in all the Christian Kirk that we could? This week, I love going back to Zay Jones as he was a massive letdown for the donkey public last week but enters a prime, get-right matchup against a Titans’ defense that refuses to blitz the quarterback (when Trevor Lawrence struggles most). We’ve written up the Titans’ being an absolute pass funnel defense and at this price, Zay Jones is a perfect player to take advantage of that brutal secondary.
THE DISCORD DIAMOND…

Julio Jones ($4,000 DK / $5,400 FD) – Back by popular demand is the 0% projected ownership Discord Diamond. We absolutely smashed last week with Trent Sherfield (again, we got lucky, not really happy about that, but it worked) and we’ll go back to the well this week with Julio Jones?!

There is not a ton of wide receiver “punt value” that I believe in this week and the only players that fit the mold for the Discord Diamond (in terms of routes ran, price, and ownership) were:

– Elijah Moore (still like him, this should be an excellent matchup on the inside against a struggling Taron Johnson and the Bills’ secondary as a whole)
– Phillip Dorsett (meh)
– Julio Jones

So… yea, looking at the options above, we’re going with Julio Jones. There isn’t a whole lot of great things to say about this Buccaneers’ offense, but they are the AETY Model’s anticipated leader in terms of pass attempts with our without Fournette being active. At these low-price punts, we really need any boost of volume that we can find and the Bucs’ offense checks that box. In addition, Julio Jones will mainly lineup against the 49ers worst cover-corner in Demmodore Lenoir. Jones has a damn-near half-a-foot height advantage and is still is showing his playmaking prowess over the past couple weeks. Shannahan will likely try to scheme away the home-run ability to Mike Evans leaving Julio Jones 1-on-1 with Lenoir… good luck.

Outside of the limited man coverage we’ll see from the 49ers, Julio Jones gets a nice boost to his baseline target share against the 49ers’ Cover-3 zone. It’s very likely Julio Jones is a dud, but if you NEED a 0% owned cheapie, Julio Jones would be my guy.

Honorable Mention: Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, Mike Evans, Gabe Davis, Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, Elijah Moore

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,600 DK / $8,000 FD)
Mark Andrews ($6,500 DK / $6,800 FD) – Significant target shares with Tyler Huntley last year. I’m not really into this game at all, but this is a great price for Mark Andrews on a slate where everyone is paying down.
TJ Hockenson ($5,100 DK / $6,500 FD) – Excellent pivot to get exposure to this projected shootout at low ownership. When the Lions’ show their Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone defense, Hockenson will be a priority target for Kirk Cousins.
Greg Dulcich ($3,400 DK / $5,400 FD) – On DraftKings, just take the freesquare of Greg Dulcich in a matchup where he should heavily utilized against the Chiefs’ league leading Cover-2 rate.

*P.S. – it’s hilarious to see Chig Okonkwo at 10% ownership projection… you’re a week late folks, but not if you’re a Win Daily member!

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Joe Mixon
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Jared Goff
DJ Moore
Greg Dulcich

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.

2 years ago 0 comments

NFL DFS Week 13: StixPicks (Cash and GPP)

brgrewe@gmail.com 2 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Welcome back to the Week 13 NFL DFS cash game and GPP breakdown. As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Good luck this week!

This slate is absolutely loaded with studs and multiple games with game totals over 50 points (game-stacks are certainly encouraged by me). I’ll probably keep out some star players just for the sake of showing you who I’m more focused on investing in, but this article is not meant to identify obvious studs you know are fantastic plays. I may mention them, but guys like Tyreek Hill and Christian McCaffrey are always in play and you don’t need me to tell you they’re likely to have a nice fantasy output.

NFL DFS Quarterbacks:

Patrick Mahomes ($8,300 DK / $9,000 FD) – The clear top-option in terms of both expected fantasy output and salary on both NFL DFS outlets. This game is going to be a fantastic watch and running out a sub-10% Mahomes is always something I would advise. He’s in play for both cash and GPP lineups.

Stack Options: Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Skyy Moore (punt viable)
Run-Back Options: Ja’Maar Chase, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins
Justin Herbert ($7,200 DK / $8,100 FD) – Herbert is probably my favorite QB on this slate, and by a decent margin. I always love rolling with Justin Herbert as this Chargers’ offense almost refuses to run the football. The Chargers and the Chiefs are the only offenses on this slate that average over 40 pass attempts per game. Pair that with the Las Vegas Raiders grading dead-last in pass defense DVOA… yea. Cash game and GPP viable at sub-5% ownership? Sign me up.

*Keep an eye on their offensive line, it’s quite possible they’re down two linemen… not great if so.

Stack Options: Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer, Gerald Everett
Run-Back Options: Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, Foster Moreau
Trevor Lawrence ($5,900 DK / $7,500 FD) – On DraftKings, Trevor Lawrence is going to be over 15% owned which makes him a perfect cash game quarterback against the Lions’ defense in a 51-point game total. I usually LOVE to play Trevor Lawrence in GPP lineups, but only when he’s 1-2% owned. The Lions blitz a lot and have continuously improved their pressure-rate to opposing quarterbacks and that is where Lawrence still struggles. This Detroit defense is not nearly as bad as the general public thinks it is, and Trevor Lawrence does not warrant 15% or higher ownership at any price. I’ll be fading in GPP but giving him a serious look for my cash game quarterback.

Stack Options: Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Marvin Jones (punt viable), Evan Engram (punt viable)
Run-Back Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Chark
Kenny Pickett ($5,200 DK / $6,700 FD) – My second favorite QB on this slate (in terms of overall value and ownership) is Mr. Pickett, but mainly on DraftKings. At $5,200, I absolutely love what my lineups look like when I start with Kenny Pickett as a value “punt” quarterback. Having said that, I truly don’t look at Kenny Pickett as a punt quarterback. Pickett is quietly averaging over 30 rushing yards per game (against rather quality defenses) over the past four games and that alone is enough for me to sign off for his NFL DFS cash game floor.

On the GPP side of things, he’s certainly risky as hell on this slate that is loaded with high-upside, high-total game quarterbacks, but if Pickett and the Steelers can be a bit more efficient in the red-zone and we get a passing touchdown or two, Pickett may be in line for a ceiling game here in the dome against the Falcons and their 29th ranked pass defense (DVOA).

Stack Options: George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, Diontae Johnson
Run-Back Options: Drake London (I wouldn’t make it a priority to have a run-back if I’m playing Pickett. Pickett is solely a salary relief play to give us more quality exposure to those higher total games)

Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts

NFL DFS Running Backs:

Nick Chubb ($8,000 DK / $9,600 FD) – The best offensive line in the NFL against the worst run defense in the NFL. At his projected ownership of 5% on both sites, Chubb is better off as a GPP play with the expectation that this is absolutely a slate-breaking opportunity if you trust the DeShaun Watson debut.
Josh Jacobs ($7,900 DK / $9,500 FD) – Jacobs pretty much ruined my GPP upside last weekend with his late game heroics (I did not play him) despite battling a calf injury all week. He’s still apparently battling that calf injury, but if he’s ruled good to go, this is the best matchup Jacobs has had in quite some time. It’ll be hard to fade the hottest hand at the running back position. He’s a quality option in all formats.
Joe Mixon ($7,100 DK / $8,500 FD) – Assuming he clears the concussion protocol, Joe Mixon is likely a core-play for me in all formats of NFL DFS in Week 13. This Chiefs @ Bengals game has the highest game total on the slate and I want to ensure I get exposure to key contributors in that game. The Chiefs’ run defense is not nearly as bad as it has been in years past, but they absolutely bleed production to pass-catching running backs which is where Mixon has excelled this season. He’s one of the few “two and a half down” running backs left in the NFL. If he’s ruled out, Samaje Perine is a lock-button.
Aaron Jones ($6,900 DK / $7,400 FD) – Finally a sub-$7K price-tag in the best matchup he’s had in some time. AJ Dillon is slightly banged up with a quad injury and this is the nut-matchup against the Bears for Aaron Jones’ expected dual-threat utilization. He’s likely best left as a GPP play at sub-10% ownership.
Dameon Pierce ($5,900 DK / $6,500 FD) – He’s been a complete bummer lately, but in NFL DFS cash games, he’s a chalky value in a great matchup against a bottom-three run defense. I don’t expect a whole lot, but if you need the savings, just take the ownership free-square in your cash games and you can consider him as a risky value in GPP lineups, but the matchup upside is there.
Isiah Pacheco ($5,700 DK / $7,000 FD) – I’m prioritizing getting key pieces to these higher total games with Kansas City @ Cincinnati being at the top of that list. Pachecho is nowhere near cash viable, but in tournaments, the multiple touchdown upside is what I’ll be shooting for when rostering Pachecho. With all of the ownership in that high $5K range going to Dameon Pierce, Pachecho makes for an excellent tournament pivot in a fantastic fantasy environment. If he can get a reception or two, that’s just icing on the cake.

Honorable Mention: Austin Ekeler, Derrick Henry, David Montgomery, Gus Edwards, Kyren Williams, Zonovan Knight (going to likely be a committee)

NFL DFS Wide Receivers:

Davante Adams ($8,700 DK / $8,600 FD) – Ridiculously cheap on FanDuel this week but an elite play on all formats against the Chargers secondary who simply cannot contain Davante Adams. At his price, there are certainly concerns of heavy double-coverage limiting his upside (as Adams went for 10 receptions and over 140 yards in their previous matchup), but I’ll roll out Davante Adams with confidence as he’s received 10 more targets over the past four games than any other pass catcher in the NFL.

AJ Brown ($7,800 DK / $8,100 FD) – I’m not a revenge game narrative guy so I’ll spare you reading the same statement about Brown’s time with the Titans that you’ll read literally everywhere. That means absolutely nothing to me. What matters to me is that this is a pass-funnel defense that runs a ton of Cover-1 and Cover-3 defense… that is where AJ Brown absolutely smashes. This is one of the best matchups on paper for any wide receiver in the NFL this week. I could not care less about NFL DFS writers talking about revenge, lol.

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,100 DK / $8,000 FD) – St. Brown will likely be the highest owned wide receiver on this slate and I have no issues with that against Jacksonville here. Roll him out in all formats with confidence.

Keenan Allen ($6,500 DK / $7,700 FD) – Great price for a WR1 and a key exposure piece to what should be an absolute slugfest in Las Vegas. The Raiders’ have arguably the worst secondary in football. Josh Palmer is also a fine play at a cheaper price-tag.

Christian Kirk ($6,300 DK / $7,500 FD) – Everyone will be chasing the value in Zay Jones and I’ll be going directly to Christian Kirk in this matchup against the Lions’ slot cornerback, Will Harris. The Lions blitz a ton and that should force Lawrence into getting the ball out of his hands early to his shorter ADOT pass-catchers, like Kirk, or this game will turn in favor of Detroit quickly.

Garrett Wilson ($5,300 DK / $6,600 FD) – The Vikings’ secondary is in shambles and they are a pass-funnel defense. Wilson is going to be a top-three wide receiver in terms of ownership and like we stated last week, that is likely something we likely cannot fade in NFL DFS cash game lineups.

Nico Collins ($4,200 DK / $5,800 FD) – Your cash game “free-square” value wide receiver now that Brandin Cooks is out. I don’t love it, but I get it.

Trent Sherfield ($3,300 DK / $5,100 FD) – HERE IT IS… the Discord Diamond. I’m 99.9% sure I’ve never written his name in my life, but here we are.

Disclaimer: he has 0% of the upside that Christian Watson had when I made that call of the year a few weeks back, but Trent Sherfield offers us a cheap piece of another higher total game in San Francisco (for one of the most pass-happy teams in the NFL).

As mentioned in the Kenny Pickett write-up, I need some key value in my main lineup and that lineup indeed calls for a player in the low $3,000 range (DraftKings). When really looking at prospective value players and their matchups, I focused on the following “value punts”…

– DJ Chark
– Chase Claypool
– Olamide Zaccheaus (bring-back with my Pickett and Steeler pass-catcher stack, but we don’t want to invest in Atlanta’s passing offense)
– Skyy Moore (he was very close to taking Sherfield’s spot in this write-up… I do like him, but don’t love the snap counts and randomness of the Chiefs’ offense. It seems like when he does run routes, he gets targeted at a significant clip. Having said that, Juju is finally back at 100% health. I don’t trust Skyy Moore).
– Trent Sherfield

Trent Sherfield is the only one on that list who runs well over 25 routes per game. In addition, Sherfield’s expected target share takes a significant jump over his baseline when facing Cover-4 and Cover-3 zone coverage. Guess what coverages the 49ers run the most? Yea, Cover-4 and Cover-3 zone. It’s disgusting, but if the rest of your lineup is loaded with upper-tier studs, I am quite confident that this is a plus-matchup for Trent Sherfield against the 49ers defense that grades 31st in pass defense DVOA to their opposition’s tertiary pass-catchers. If he can find a way to sneak into the end-zone (doubtful), we may have a massive week on our hands with a legit 0% owned, Trent Sherfield. Pray for us!

Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Ja’Maar Chase, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Allen Lazard, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,900 DK / $8,400 FD)
Pat Freiermuth ($4,300 DK / $5,900 FD) – Way too cheap on DraftKings and likely my play for NFL DFS cash games if I cannot afford the obvious Travis Kelce. Atlanta will play a ton of Cover-3 zone coverage and that’s where Freiermuth should have a field day.

Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews, Foster Moreau, Chig Okonkwo (GPP punt only)

NFL DFS Defense/Special Teams:

Cleveland Browns
New York Giants
New York Jets
Pittsburgh Steelers
Denver Broncos
Houston Texans

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Amon-Ra St. Brown
Josh Jacobs
Nico Collins
Pat Freiermuth
Samaje Perine

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 12: StixPicks (Cash and GPP)

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

Happy Thanksgiving weekend to all! It was awesome to see all the winning screenshots come in on Thursday… now if only the Hunter Henry second touchdown got to stand! Let’s move on to the Week 12 NFL DFS slate where it will be a rather condensed player pool for me (and so will the writeup unfortunately as I’m about to go on a 5-hour roadtrip to get back home in time for the Sunday livestream).

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Good luck this week!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson ($8,000 DK / $8,200 FD) – Incredibly affordable on FanDuel and in an excellent spot against the 26th ranked defense in terms of DVOA. With offensive tackle, Ronnie Stanley out for this game, it’s probably best to leave Lamar Jackson to NFL DFS GPP lineups but you could do worse in cash if you want to pay up.
Justin Herbert ($7,000 DK / $7,900 FD) – My overall favorite quarterback play on the slate by a wide-margin. We pick on the Arizona defense damn near every week and we won’t stop here now that Keenan Allen is back and the only quality corner for Arizona, Byron Murphy, is OUT. Expect a ton of back-and-forth passing attacks for both offenses as Kyler Murray returns for the Cardinals. Justin Herbert is a core-play for me in cash game and GPP formats.
Geno Smith ($6,000 DK / $7,600 FD) – On DraftKings, Geno Smith will likely garner the highest ownership on the slate. I’m fine with him as a cheaper option in cash games, but with all the value at the running-back position, you probably won’t need the salary relief at quarterback. If the weather report looks better in Seattle tomorrow morning, I’d have more interest here.

Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Derek Carr

NFL DFS Running Backs

Austin Ekeler ($8,500 DK / $8,800 FD) – Decent price for a top-tier dual-threat option in a fantastic game environment.
Derrick Henry ($8,300 DK / $9,500 FD) – Derrick Henry under 10% owned, at home. There is absolutely nothing about this Cincinnati defense that should scare you away from Derrick Henry. If you can afford him, he’s a high-upside, slate-breaking option.
Kenneth Walker III ($6,900 DK / $8,400 FD) – I prefer the price on DraftKings here for Walker, but Las Vegas Raiders defense is dead last in overall defense DVOA. They are an absolute mess and this should lead to plenty of red-zone opportunities for Kenneth Walker.
James Conner ($6,600 DK / $7,000 FD) – A cheaper and less productive version of Austin Ekeler, but the dual-threat and red-zone ability for James Conner is hard to ignore in a game that I want to get as much exposure to as I can. The Chargers’ run defense grades 30th in DVOA.

The Value Running Backs

Jeff Wilson Jr. ($5,900 DK / $7,700 FD) – A little pricey on FanDuel but an absolute lock on DraftKings against this Houston run defense. We love double-digit, home-favorite running backs.
Antonio Gibson ($5,400 DK / $6,100 FD) – Dirt cheap and likely sub-10% owned on all NFL DFS formats. Gibson is the best option in this Washington backfield and the pass-catching floor makes me very interested in Gibson against this Falcons’ 28th ranked defense (DVOA).
Rachaad White ($5,100 DK / $6,400 FD) – Similar to Jeff Wilson Jr., I’ll likely be locking in Rachaad White in all formats now that Leonard Fournette is ruled out and they have a matchup against the 32nd ranked run defense in the NFL (DVOA).

*Note: I’m out on a 30% owned Samaje Perine. Trayveon Williams and Chris Evans will both be active and have a role the public doesn’t seem to respect. I understand if you want to chase the points from last week, but I don’t play running backs against the Titans (especially when I don’t believe they have a 60% or higher snap-share coming).

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($8,600 DK / $9,000 FD) – My clear top-option at the wide receiver position this week. Simple as that.
DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700 DK / $8,400 FD) – D-Hop continues to get a monster target share and Arizona will be without Rondale Moore and likely Greg Dortch. With or without Marquise Brown, Hopkins is going to have a very active day in the Arizona passing game like he always does against the Chargers wasteland of a secondary.
Tee Higgins ($6,900 DK / $8,200 FD) – Way too cheap on DraftKings against a pass funnel defense in the Tennessee Titans and no Ja’Maar Chase.
DK Metcalf ($6,500 DK / $7,200 FD) – The AETY Model absolutely loves this spot for DK Metcalf going up against the Raiders. This defense is a disaster and the AETY Model’s coverage scheme grades seem to believe this is a potential blow-up spot for DK Metcalf. Keep an eye on the forecast, but if it’s relatively clean we’re rolling out Metcalf with the utmost confidence.
Keenan Allen ($6,100 DK / $7,300 FD) & Josh Palmer ($5,400 DK / $6,800 FD) – The easy two stack options for Justin Herbert. Both of their prices are extremely too low for the floors and upside they possess in this matchup.
Treylon Burks ($4,200 DK / $5,900 FD) – A cheap WR1 in a nice matchup is something we’re always interested in for our NFL DFS lineups. The Bengals will run a lot of Cover-1 and Cover-3 defense and that is a matchup advantage for Treylon Burks.

Honorable Mention: Chris Olave, Christian Kirk, Tyler Boyd, Terry McLaurin, Drake London, Mack Hollins

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Mark Andrews ($6,500 DK / $7,300 FD) – Now that Andrews is back to 100% health, it’s all systems go this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars who grade dead last in DVOA against opposing tight-ends. Jacksonville will run a ton of Cover-2 zone defense with some Cover-1 and Cover-3 mixed in… all of which Mark Andrews exceeds his baseline numbers against (which are sexy to begin with). No need to get cute at the tight-end position when there is so much value at the running back position.

Honorable Mention: Travis Kelce, Foster Moreau, Hayden Hurst (love this spot for him without Ja’Maar Chase), Trey McBride (absolute punt, but viable in a LAC/AZ game stack)

NFL DFS Defense/Special Teams

Denver Broncos
New York Jets
Carolina Panthers
Kansas City Chiefs
Cleveland Browns

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Justin Herbert
Jeff Wilson Jr.
Rachaad White
DeAndre Hopkins
Mark Andrews

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 11: Stix Picks (Cash and GPP)

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

After a smash week Week 10 NFL DFS lineups across the board (thank you, Christian Watson), let’s get back in the groove for Week 11. I hope everyone enjoyed the slate breakdown cheat-sheet I provided in Discord. Hopefully that helps your weekly process! Let’s move on to the Week 11 NFL DFS slate where it will be a rather condensed player pool for me.

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Good luck this week!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts ($8,200 DK / $8,700 FD) – Josh Allen is not 100% healthy, in a potential ugly-weather game and Lamar Jackson is a damn-near double-digit favorite outdoors in potential ugly-weather as well, so Jalen Hurts gets the nod up top for me in terms of high priced “stud” quarterbacks. You know what you’re getting with Hurts as he makes for a fine cash and GPP NFL DFS play.

*UPDATE: Josh Allen and the Bills are now being moved to Detroit, in the dome. Fire away at Josh Allen if you’re into that spot.
Justin Fields ($7,600 DK / $8,700 FD) – His price is still probably too low on DraftKings as he legit has 60+ yard rushing touchdown upside at any time (as we saw again last week, lol). The fade certainly hurt my DFS upside last week, but I’ll probably ride the Fields’ train this week as I doubt his heater ends with the Falcons 28th ranked defense (in terms of DVOA). Fields is all systems go in cash and GPP again in Week 11 as he returns to his home state of Georgia.
Marcus Mariota ($5,500 DK / $7,200 FD) – On FanDuel, I’d probably feel better just using the extra $300 to get to Dak Prescott, but on DraftKings, the savings offered with Marcus Mariota is very intriguing for my overall lineup construction. He’s likely got the highest “get benched” likelihood on the slate, but if you can stomach that risk, Mariota makes for an excellent NFL DFS GPP play and arguably a cash play (pending ownership).

The Bears have absolutely no one on defense (31st overall defense DVOA) and are brutal against both the rush and the pass. In addition, this Bears’ defense has averaged over 38 points per game surrendered to their opponents over the past three weeks… If we like Justin Fields again, we should be expecting a nice up-tempo gamescript for Mariota as he needs to keep the Falcons’ offense in line with the Bears’ recent high-powered offense. Lastly, the Falcons have seemed to have somewhat broken out of their snail’s pace, run-only offense we saw in the middle of the season as we’re starting to see more no-huddle offense. Mariota has averaged the highest number of pass attempts over the past three weeks as he has all season. I’m in, but it’s risky.

Honorable Mention: Dak Prescott

NFL DFS Running Backs

Saquon Barkley ($8,900 DK / $9,700 FD) – No need to reinvent the wheel here, Saquon Barkley, at home, against the Lions.
Dalvin Cook ($8,000 DK / $8,300 FD) – Dalvin is in a smash spot here against the Cowboys’ run defense and a great game environment with a total 47.5 points (currently second highest on the slate). I love the recent usage in both the passing and running game and the AETY Model loves the upside here as it grades Dalvin Cook third in terms of touchdown equity at the running back position. Dalvin may very well come into the slate at sub-10% ownership making him a fantastic GPP play.
David Montgomery ($6,100 DK / $6,200 FD) – Way too cheap on both sites and the free-square type of play in my opinion with no Khalil Herbert taking every other drive for the Bears’ offense. If you’re not using Fields in cash, use Montgomery and there’s also GPP leverage here with Montgomery as Justin Fields is the anticipated QB chalk.
Antonio Gibson ($5,600 DK / $6,600 FD) & Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,300 DK / $6,600 FD) – Both Commanders’ running backs in play this weekend against the #1 fantasy-friendly run defense in the Houston Texans. In cash games, I prefer Brian Robinson due to slightly more red-zone equity (and I am OK if you go double Commander on DK Cash with Terry/B-Rob), but in GPP builds, I like the versatility and pass-catching upside for Antonio Gibson. If for some reason this game shoots-out, Antonio Gibson is gamescript proof.

Honorable Mention: Joe Mixon, Rhamondre Stevenson, Nick Chubb, James Robinson (GPP only)

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson ($9,100 DK / $9,100 FD) – Injury designation is no more. Fire up Justin Jefferson if you can afford him!
CeeDee Lamb ($7,500 DK / $8,100 FD) – Absolute core play for me in all formats this week, regardless of ownership. The Vikings’ have an extremely high Cover-3 usage rate and that is a massive advantage for CeeDee Lamb on the inside against Chandon Sullivan. Load up the CeeDee!
Gabe Davis ($6,500 DK / $7,100 FD) – With my love for CeeDee Lamb and one of Saquon Barkley or Dalvin Cook, I just cannot afford to pay up for Stefon Diggs (if you can, go for it). I really want to try to get a piece of the Bills’ offense as they have the highest implied team total on the slate and are now playing in a dome. I’ll be pushing on Gabe Davis this week due to the savings offered and the target share upgrade we’ll likely see when the Browns blitz and run their Cover-4 zone defense. Gabe is an excellent boom-or-bust 5% owned GPP play this weekend.
Courtland Sutton ($6,000 DK / $7,000 FD) – Assuming Jerry Jeudy is OUT, Courtland Sutton is pretty much the only proven-game in town for the Broncos’ receiving core. With the state of this Denver Broncos’ offense, it’s probably best to keep Sutton in your cash game player pool as the upside just has not been there whatsoever for anyone in the orange uniforms.
Terry McLaurin ($5,900 DK / $7,300 FD) – Way too cheap on DraftKings. McLaurin is clearly the top-target in Washington by a mile when Taylor Heinicke is under center and this is a very winnable matchup against rookie Derrick Stingley Jr. He’s a solid play in cash game and GPP formats, though I prefer strictly cash game exposure with this game environment.
Darnell Mooney ($5,400 DK / $6,000 FD) – Fantastic price-points against the Falcons’ slot corner, Isaiah Oliver. The Falcons will run a lot of Cover-1, Cover-3 and Cover-2 defense which is all advantage Darnell Mooney. He will likely be a core play for me in NFL DFS GPP lineups as I’m leaning towards game-stacking CHI @ ATL.
Drake London ($5,100 DK / $5,700 FD) – I’m projecting Atlanta to be in a bit of a back-and-forth, up-tempo gamescript here and that will get me to lean on the Atlanta pass catchers. This is a beautiful buy-low spot for Drake London at extremely affordable salaries, in a dream matchup against Jaylon Jones. I’d prefer him in GPP builds only as we know the extreme volatility at hand investing in the Falcons’ passing game.
Parris Campbell ($4,300 DK / $5,800 FD) – Too cheap for a valued target of Matt Ryan’s who has one of the only matchups against this Philadelphia secondary that doesn’t grade as a negative in the AETY Model. Avonte Maddox is now on the IR and that should open up the middle of the field for Campbell against a pure backup cornerback in Josiah Scott. He’s fine as a value play in both cash and GPP lineups.

Honorable Mention: AJ Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tee Higgins, Garrett Wilson, Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek, Nico Collins (cash viable on DK with the high ownership)

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

TJ Hockenson ($5,300 DK / $6,500 FD) – Hockenson has quietly been utilized like a borderline fantasy WR2 since he’s been traded to Vikings… 19 targets in two games! We’re getting close to Travis Kelce type of usage (obviously he isn’t Travis Kelce, but neither is his price). Hockenson will likely be around 5% in ownership and in this up-tempo Dallas @ Minnesota game, will make for an excellent GPP play. We’ll see a lot of him when Dallas shows their Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone defenses.
Kyle Pitts ($4,400 DK / $5,500 FD) – It’s gross, but again, I’m in on this Falcons’ passing attack this week and Kyle Pitts is my top stacking option for Mariota. As mentioned in Discord, Kyle Pitts has been slowly working his way back to lining up in the slot (where he is at his best) and away from in-line snaps. Either Arthur Smith is starting to understand how serious of a weapon Kyle Pitts is or it’s a fluke. I lean on the side that the slot snap-share rising is a strategic move.

Although Pitts won’t exclusively see Kyler Gordon in coverage (the others in coverage for the Bears aren’t much better), this is a matchup we need to pick-on. Gordon has allowed massive production to all those who line up against him as he’s given up the most receiving yards in the NFL to receivers targeted in the slot, by a wide margin. Pitts should absolutely smash the Bears’ Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone defenses (as long as this game stays up-tempo). He’s a fine play for GPP’s and arguably viable in cash.
Dalton Schultz ($4,300 DK / $5,900 FD) – Not quite as sexy as Hockenson’s recent usage, but 15 targets over his past two games is excellent on a slate when there is no Travis Kelce. The red-zone utilization is also taking a massive leap upward now that Dak Prescott is back. This is a game I love to attack and Schultz is more of a WR2 than he is a mid-tier priced tight-end.
Greg Dulcich ($3,800 DK / $5,500 FD) – I personally have zero interest in Dulcich outside of cash games. On FanDuel, I’d advise going elsewhere, on DraftKings, it looks like he’ll be the highest owned tight-end by a mile so it’s safe to go there if you need savings.

Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews, Tyler Higbee, Cole Kmet

NFL DFS Defense/Special Teams

Baltimore Ravens
Denver Broncos
Washington Commanders
New Orleans Saints
New York Jets
Houston Texans
Pittsburgh Steelers

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

CeeDee Lamb
David Montgomery
Saquon Barkley
Greg Dulcich
Terry McLaurin

NFL DFS GPP Core (DraftKings)

I’ll be out of town this weekend for a wedding so I want to share my NFL DFS GPP “core” that I usually give out on the Sunday livestream if anyone is interested. Good luck this week!

Marcus Mariota (risky as hell, so I understand if you don’t want to go there)
Dalvin Cook
CeeDee Lamb
Darnell Mooney
Kyle Pitts

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NFL DFS Week 10: Stix Picks (Cash and GPP)

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

First off, Happy Veteran’s Day to all who served and their families. Please know that myself and everyone at Win Daily are incredibly grateful for your service, as you all have paved the way that we live today. To be able to sit here and write NFL DFS articles on a weekly basis, it’s incredible and we wouldn’t be here without you. Thank you for allowing us to live the safe lives we live today! You are all the true heroes!

A bit of a mixed bag for Week 9 NFL DFS lineups across the board. Unfortunately, I was a full-fade on Joe Mixon and that’s just the way it goes sometimes. I hope everyone enjoyed the slate breakdown cheat-sheet I provided in Discord. Hopefully that helps your weekly process! Let’s move on to a sexy Week 10 NFL DFS slate. As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Good luck this week!

*Please note that just because a player is listed as a cash game option, DOES NOT mean they’re not in play for NFL DFS GPP lineups. I love to get a mixture of both in my GPP builds.

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($7,900 DK / $8,500 FD) – It is Patrick Mahomes, in a fantastic matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. He’s the only quarterback on the slate with a passing prop close to 300-yards and if Josh Allen is limited our OUT, he’s the only QB (other than maybe Tua Tagovailoa) who we expect to throw for 2+ touchdowns on a weekly basis. Don’t overthink this slate. Mahomes is perfect for both cash and GPP lineups in Week 10.

Stack Options: Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Run-Back Options: Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram
Tua Tagovailoa ($6,700 DK / $8,100 FD) – Tua and the Miami Dolphins are on absolute fire right now and the matchup at home against the Cleveland Browns projects to be a shootout with the total currently sitting at 49.5 points (second highest on the slate behind JAX @ KC). The Browns secondary is back to full health, but it’s almost impossible to keep Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in-check. Tua is fine for cash game builds, but with the potential that the Browns run the ball as much as possible to keep the ball out of Miami’s hands, the safest route is through NFL DFS GPP lineups.

Stack Options: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
Run-Back Options: Amari Cooper, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Donovan Peoples-Jones
Justin Fields ($6,300 DK / $8,300 FD) – DraftKings refuses to raise his price to an appropriate tier based on his current fantasy outputs and the clear high-floor with his legs. Fields is on a heater right now and is an excellent cash game play against this horrific Detroit Lions’ defense. Having said that, I do think a case can be made to fade Justin Fields.

I look at it this way: his ownership has never been higher, his price has never been higher, he takes more hits than any other quarterback on the slate, and he’s done his damage in up-tempo games where the Bears are playing from behind! Those games were against Dak Prescott and a healthy Dallas Cowboys team (outside of Elliott, but we know how lethal Pollard is/was) and last week against Tua and the Dolphins, where they were scoring at-will. Do you really think Jared Goff and the Lions on the road push Fields into a ceiling NFL DFS game? Maybe you do, or maybe you don’t care because he’s cheap and a play away from going 60-yards to the house. That is 100% fine, run him out there!

I personally, will likely be fading Fields for the above reasons and the fact that I simply trust my builds with Tua or Mahomes more at their ownership. I always fade Goff on the road and will pray that the gamescript goes more in favor of both teams heavily utilizing their running backs as both of these run defenses (and pass defense too, don’t get me wrong) absolutely suck.

Stack Options: Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, Cole Kmet
Run-Back Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown

Honorable Mention (GPP only): Russell Wilson, Kenny Pickett

NFL DFS Running Backs (Cash and GPP)

Saquon Barkley ($8,600 DK / $9,500 FD) – Saquon against the Texans… it’s a smash spot but you’re paying the premium price-tag. He’s a fantastic play in all formats. Like Mahomes, no need to overthink things. I’ll do everything I can to get Barkley into my cash game lineup.
Derrick Henry ($8,300 DK / $9,400 FD) – It looks like there will be heavy ownership on Derrick Henry this week against the Broncos’ defense (they’re extremely solid, but they’re a run-funnel and it’s Derrick Henry). I probably will not get there in cash games, but he’s a great play in all formats as you all know.
Travis Etienne ($7,100 DK / $8,000 FD) – The price is rising for Etienne on a weekly basis and for good reason, he’s on fire. The usage rate is atop the AETY Model projections for the Week 10 NFL DFS slate and he’s likely to find himself in a bit more of a passing-game role as the Jaguars are almost a 10-point dog to Kansas City. The Chiefs allow the most receptions per game to opposing running backs. Etienne is perfect for both GPP and cash game lineups.
Tony Pollard ($6,500 DK / $7,000 FD) – Lock button if Ezekiel Elliott is OUT for cash and definitely a significant interest in GPP.
Dameon Pierce ($6,300 DK / $7,700 FD) – Way too affordable on DraftKings and the ownership projections seem to say the public agrees. Pierce is the “free-square” running back this week in NFL DFS cash games and is still a value piece (at high-ownership) in GPP lineups against the Giants’ 24th ranked run defense (DVOA). He’s a full-go in all formats this weekend.

Honorable Mention: Alvin Kamara, Josh Jacobs, James Conner, Jamaal Williams

GPP Only:

Jonathan Taylor ($7,500 DK / $7,000 FD) – Likely only a play for me on FanDuel, but Deon Jackson is OUT, Phil Lindsay was cut, and Zack Moss likely won’t have a significant role in any aspect of the game. The concern here is: what the hell do the Colts do on offense? I’ll roll the dice that new coach Jeff Saturday leans on Jonathan Taylor for 25+ touches on Sunday against a very beatable Raiders’ defense.
David Montgomery ($6,000 DK / $6,700 FD) – Pure leverage off of the Bears’ passing game chalk. Detroit’s run defense is terrible.
Kareem Hunt ($5,300 DK / $5,800 FD) – I don’t believe I’ve wrote his name down in any format throughout the 2022 season, but here we are. There’s no cheap-value at the running back position this week so Kareem Hunt will be getting the nod for me in some NFL DFS GPP lineups. At sub-3% ownership, Hunt grabs my attention as he’s got the highest AETY Model projection he’s had for me all season long. With no Njoku, the model seems to think Kareem Hunt will get an uptick in receiving work (in addition to his limited, yet notable rushing role) against the Dolphins’ defense that grades 28th in pass defense DVOA to opposing running backs. This game is likely going to be a fantasy football festival on both sides and Hunt offers me some extremely cheap exposure to it.

NFL DFS Wide Receivers (Cash and GPP)

Tyreek Hill ($9,100 DK / $9,000 FD)
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6,900 DK / $6,900 FD) – St. Brown is one of the only healthy wide receivers for the Detroit Lions and the expected target-share is over 30% this week against the Bears’ Cover-2 and Cover-3 defense. Kyler Gordon is going to have his hands full trying to handle Amon-Ra St. Brown for four quarters on Sunday. St. Brown is a fantastic option in all formats.
Amari Cooper ($6,500 DK / $7,800 FD) – Amari Cooper is surprisingly one of the AETY Model favorites this week against a brutal Miami secondary (Xavien Howard has been trash this season and may miss this game anyways). Amari’s red-zone usage is elite and his expected target share got a significant boost in the AETY Model with Njoku being ruled out and Miami running a ton of man coverage with some Cover-3 mixed in there as well (coverages Brissett heavily targets Cooper in). He’s simply too cheap for a high-upside WR1 in an excellent game environment. Feel confident in rolling out Cooper in all formats.

Donovan Peoples-Jones is a fine value as well for cash or GPP.
JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6,000 DK / $7,000 FD) – Mahomes’ top wide receiver outside of the obvious, Travis Kelce. JuJu has been on a tear lately and the target share at the wide receiver position in Kansas City is extremely volatile outside of JuJu. He’s likely just a GPP play for me this week.
Christian Kirk ($5,900 DK / $6,800 FD) – Christian Kirk is finally back to his early season fantasy ways and makes for an excellent, affordable piece to this expected shootout. The Jaguars will no doubt be playing from behind and that should bode well for Jacksonville’s top target. I prefer Kirk in NFL DFS GPP lineups, but ownership projections warrant considering Kirk in cash games as well. I personally do not love the matchup against L’Jarius Sneed. On the outside, Zay Jones is also a nice piece of this positive passing gamescript we’ll likely see from Jacksonville.
Diontae Johnson ($5,800 DK / $6,600 FD) – It looks like Diontae Johnson is going to be the highest owned wide receiver on this slate which makes him an excellent NFL DFS cash game option. Marshon Lattimore will again sit out with injury this week and the Saints’ run the most man coverage in the NFL… advantage Diontae. Do not forget about George Pickens as well for a bit of a discount in all formats!
Jerry Jeudy ($5,700 DK / $6,400 FD) & Courtland Sutton ($5,600 DK / $6,200 FD) – It’s disgusting, but I low-key love this matchup for Russell Wilson and the Broncos’ wide receivers against a pass-funnel Titans’ defense. The ownership projections are currently in Courtland Sutton’s favor, I prefer Jerry Jeudy by a nose. Sutton does get the significant matchup upgrade against the Titans’ Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone defense. Jeudy should excel against their man coverage looks. I’m FINE using either one of them in all formats.

Honorable Mention: CeeDee Lamb, Davante Adams, Jaylen Waddle, Chris Olave, Darnell Mooney, George Pickens, Zay Jones, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Mack Hollins

GPP Only:

Chase Claypool ($4,800 DK / $5,800 FD) – If you like this game, Chase Claypool is the deadliest fantasy weapon on the field at all times now that he’s moved outside in the Bears’ offense. The snap share will certainly tick-up significantly from last week and there’s not a corner in the division that can truly body him up. If this game shoots-out, Claypool should be a big part of that.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4,100 DK / $5,400 FD) – Way too cheap for exposure to 80% of the Kansas City offensive snaps. With Mecole Hardman out (that breaks my heart), MVS should be in a great spot here and finally have a bit of a role in the red-zone offense (or it’s simply all Kelce and JuJu). He’s the #1 AETY Model value at the wide receiver position this week.
Christian Watson ($3,700 DK / $5,400 FD) – Here we go… the 0% owned call of the week (more of a prayer, lol). With Romeo Doubs OUT, the AETY Model is extremely high on the Packers’ most talented rookie, Christian Watson. Watson is an absolute freak of a talent and finally enters a game healthy and on paper, the WR2 of this Packers’ offense. I trust that LaFleur will finally get Watson heavily involved in the game-plan (they kind of have to do something different, don’t they?) and get him a jet-sweep or two while they’re at it. Watson moves all over the formation and if we get a week where he gets 60% or more of the offensive snaps, production will come… And it will come in bunches.

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,800 DK / $8,500 FD) – The best tight-end on this slate by a mile. Lock him in for all formats of NFL DFS lineups if you can afford it!
Dalton Schultz ($3,800 DK / $5,500 FD) – Great price in all formats. I value him as a low-end WR2 who happens to get Tight-End eligibility.
Greg Dulcich ($3,400 DK / $5,900 FD) – Dulcich will be the chalk tight-end in NFL DFS cash games in Week 10. I’m OK if you run with the pack and take the chalk spot there, but I am a 100% fade in GPP lineups. I’m just not playing a punt, chalk tight-end in GPP lineups when Kelce is on the slate.
Evan Engram ($3,300 DK / $4,900 FD) – Cheap exposure to the Jacksonville passing game. Engram gets a nice boost in expected target share against the Chiefs’ heavy usage of Cover-2 zone defense.

Honorable Mention: Pat Freiermuth, Juwan Johnson

NFL DFS Defense/Special Teams

Kansas City Chiefs
Denver Broncos
Pittsburgh Steelers
Arizona Cardinals
Minnesota Vikings

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Tony Pollard (if Elliott is out)
Dameon Pierce
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Justin Fields
Travis Kelce

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 9: Stix Picks (Cash and GPP)

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Back by popular demand is the combination article for Week 9 NFL DFS. As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Good luck this week!

NEW: below is a summary of the top matchups based on offensive DVOA vs their opponents defensive DVOA (from footballoutsiders.com):

*Please note that just because a player is listed as a cash game option, DOES NOT mean they’re not in play for NFL DFS GPP lineups. I love to get a mixture of both in my GPP builds.

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks:

Josh Allen ($8,500 DK / $9,300 FD) – The clear QB1 on this slate by a mile. Take the best option in your cash game lineups and feel free to do so in your NFL DFS GPP builds as well, but I do have concerns for the ceiling here as the Bills are a large double-digit favorite against a horrific Jets offense.
Geno Smith ($5,800 DK / $7,500 FD) – Not a big fan of Geno Smith at his FanDuel price-tag, but he’s incredibly affordable on DraftKings in a fantastic matchup against the Arizona Cardinals defense we stack against on a weekly basis (27th in pass defense DVOA). Outside of Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen, there isn’t an easier quarterback to stack up.

GPP Favorites:

Tom Brady ($6,000 DK / $6,900 FD) – Great price on both NFL DFS outlets for the only true “lock” for 40+ pass attempts. The Rams’ defense is more of a pass funnel and the Bucs have what looks to be a healthy wide receiving core going into this matchup. The volume certainly makes Brady a valuable option at an affordable price-tag. Based on ownership, Brady is looking like a sub-5% play…
Trevor Lawrence ($5,200 DK / $6,800 FD) – Unfortunately, Jacksonville hasn’t been playing at the fast pace we saw early on this season, but the passing volume should be there in this matchup with a higher total (48 points) against a pathetic Las Vegas Raiders’ secondary (30th in pass defense DVOA). Lawrence struggles against defenses that bring pressure and the Raiders simply do not do that… so this is one of the few matchups I’ll roster Lawrence with (semi) confidence. Lawrence is very stackable and you know the valuable run-backs if you want to bring it back with some Raiders’ exposure (Adams, Jacobs, or Hollins).
Kyler Murray ($7,400 DK / $8,200 FD) – Same situation as last week. Kyler Murray is the only quarterback on the slate with something close to the upside of Josh Allen. This game in the dome against Seattle grades out as the highest expected pace according to the AETY Model and truly warrants the expensive price-tag for Murray. He’s probably my favorite NFL DFS GPP quarterback on what looks like a rather unappealing slate and he’s fine to roster in cash with the high-floor he possesses.

Honorable Mention: Kirk Cousins

NFL DFS Cash Game Running Backs:

Austin Ekeler ($8,800 DK / $9,400 FD) – With Keenan Allen (questionable) and Mike Williams (OUT), Austin Ekeler is the number one pass catcher and the number one ball carrier for the Los Angeles Chargers. Summary: he is their whole offense until further notice.
Aaron Jones ($7,400 DK / $7,800 FD) – Criminally low price-tag on FanDuel and I’ll be playing a few more lineups over there than usual solely for the discount. A.J. Dillon took on what looked to be a nasty knee injury and although he somewhat stayed in the game, I am quite skeptical we see much of him on Sunday. This is a dream matchup for the Packers’ top-ten rushing attack against the Lions’ putrid run defense. Aaron Jones is a likely core play for me in all formats.
Travis Etienne Jr. ($6,300 DK / $7,600 FD) – Holy usage, Mr. Etienne! Etienne is way too cheap and is the only game in town for the Jaguars’ backfield going up against the Raiders’ struggling defense (19th in overall defense DVOA, and 31st in pass defense DVOA to opposing running backs). This is a free-square type of play on DraftKings.
Kenneth Walker ($6,200 DK / $8,300 FD) – Very steep price-tag on FanDuel, but extremely affordable on DraftKings. The Arizona Cardinals’ run defense has been improving throughout the season but they still allow a fantasy friendly, 4.5 yards per carry. This is a fantastic game environment to get exposure to, and Walker will hold significant touchdown equity in this matchup.
D’Onta Foreman ($6,000 DK / $7,300 FD) – No Hubbard again this week.
Deon Jackson ($5,200 DK / $5,000 FD) – It sounds like Jonathan Taylor is going to miss this game after re-injuring his ankle in Week 8. Take the free square in Deon Jackson now that Nyheim Hines was traded to Buffalo.

GPP Favorites:

*NOTE: I love everyone in the Cash section for GPPs as well!

Josh Jacobs ($7,300 DK / $8,800 FD) – not as great of a matchup as Aaron Jones, but the AETY Model does expect a lot of scoring in the LV/JAX matchup. Jacobs has been on fire this season and we’ll likely get some lower ownership as he was a letdown for NFL DFS players last week. This isn’t a fantastic matchup on paper and I don’t love the uptick in passing-down usage for Ameer Abdullah, so we’re better off using Jacobs in a GPP game-stack lineup.
Raheem Mostert ($6,100 DK / $6,500 FD) – Yes, Mostert was a massive letdown last week at Detroit in a fantastic matchup, but he was still rather effective with his touches as he averaged over 4.6 yards per carry. The Dolphins decided to get cute on the 1-yard line and give the touchdown to Jake Ingold instead of feeding Mostert. All in all, it should have been a respectable fantasy output for Mostert. This week, the AETY Model expects the Dolphins to handle whatever is left of the Bears’ defense and offer Mostert a lot of fantasy upside at low-ownership.

Jeff Wilson Jr. is likely to make an immediate impact, but with only a few days of practice under his belt before making is Dolphins’ season debut, I’ll roll the dice in NFL DFS GPP lineups that this is still Mostert’s job to lose.

Honorable Mention: Joe Mixon, Rhamondre Stevenson, Jamaal Williams, Devin Singletary, Eno Benjamin

NFL DFS Wide Receivers (Cash and GPP)

It’s clear that I’m likely to pay up (for the most part) at running back this week, so it’s unlikely I get a lot of exposure to the top tier wide receivers like Cooper Kupp (keep an eye on the ankle injury), Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, or DeAndre Hopkins. I’ll certainly try to get one of them in my NFL DFS cash game lineup (as you certainly can do), but regardless, I’d rank them as follows:

Justin Jefferson
Stefon Diggs
DeAndre Hopkins
Tyreek Hill
Davante Adams

Mike Evans ($7,200 DK / $7,700 FD) – Great price for a top wide receiver at a discount price in what should be a very pass-heavy game environment for the Tampa Bay Bucs. Don’t worry about any rumors of a Jalen Ramsey shadow. The AETY Model also loves Chris Godwin in this spot as well.
DK Metcalf ($6,400 DK / $7,400 FD) & Tyler Lockett ($6,100 DK / $7,600 FD) – Again, I want exposure to this afternoon game with the highest total on the slate and as always, the matchup against Marco Wilson. Metcalf and Lockett are both in an absolute smash spot this week in the dome, assuming Byron Murphy doesn’t solely shadow DK Metcalf. I’d lean to whoever is cheaper on your NFL DFS site of choice.
Terry McLaurin ($5,900 DK / $7,200 FD) – The Vikings’ defense is a pass funnel and thank the lord for Taylor Heinicke for resurrecting the fantasy value of Terry McLaurin. This is our weekly pick on Cam Dantzler matchup and the price on DraftKings could not be better.
Christian Kirk ($5,500 DK / $6,300 FD) – Way too cheap for a clear WR1. The production hasn’t been nearly as sexy for Kirk as it was in the beginning of the season, but the volume and matchup is there this week. This is going to be a competitive back-and-forth game.
Rondale Moore ($5,200 DK / $5,900 FD) – I hate that I even have to mention his name, lol, but Rondale Moore is starting to become a real weapon in the Arizona Cardinals’ offense and surprisingly moved back inside last week (pushing DeAndre Hopkins outside). I always love DeAndre Hopkins, but for the discount, going down to Rondale Moore against Seattle slot-corner, Coby Bryant is very intriguing for NFL DFS lineups.
Josh Palmer ($5,100 DK / $6,200 FD) – Similar to Deon Jackson, Josh Palmer is the only game in town for this Chargers’ receiving core against a HORRIFIC Atlanta secondary. If you’re not paying up for Ekeler, pay-down for Josh Palmer in your NFL DFS cash games.

Honorable Mention (and the punt-plays): Tee Higgins, DJ Moore, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Chris Godwin, Curtis Samuel, Drake London, Mack Hollins, Terrace Marshall Jr. (way too cheap and cash viable)

NFL DFS Tight-Ends (Cash and GPP)

Gerald Everett ($4,800 DK / $5,800 FD) – Outside of Josh Palmer and Austin Ekeler, Gerald Everett is one of the few proven options on this Chargers’ offense while Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are out. The total on this game is still high and both of these defenses are severely banged up. Everett’s target share and red-zone share is respectable enough to warrant the mid-tier price.
Tyler Higbee ($3,700 DK ONLY) – Tight-ends against the Bucs has been a gold mine this year and it won’t stop this week as Matthew Stafford abuses Kupp and Higbee against heavy blitzing, Cover-3 and Cover-4 zone defenses (what Tampa will run).
Hayden Hurst ($3,600 DK / $5,300 FD) – I’m not a big Hayden Hurst guy, but the price is fantastic on DraftKings and the matchup is a favorable one for the Bengals’ tight-end. Carolina has been getting carved up by opposing tight-ends (hell, they brought Kyle Pitts back to life last week) by sticking to their heavy blitz, Cover-3 and Cover-4 zone defenses. Hurst should be in line for an above the baseline target share in Week 9.
Evan Engram ($3,300 DK / $5,200 FD) – Since Week 5, Evan Engram is tied for the lead in NFL tight-end targets! I don’t understand the DraftKings price whatsoever and will likely be rolling out Engram as a core-play, regardless of ownership. In that timeframe, Engram is 4th overall in tight-end routes ran and the thing I like about him the most is his versatility to line up all over the formation (only around 30% of the snaps in-line). Let’s ride!

Honorable Mention: Zach Ertz, Brock Wright or James Mitchell (pure punt plays)

NFL DFS Defense/Special Teams

Buffalo Bills
Green Bay Packers
Tampa Bay Bucs
Indianapolis Colts
Washington Commanders
Carolina Panthers

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (Cash Games)

Josh Allen
Travis Etienne Jr.
Deon Jackson
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Josh Palmer

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 8: Stix Picks (Cash and GPP)

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Back by popular demand is the combination article for Week 8 NFL DFS. As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s get after it!

*Please note that just because a player is listed as a cash game option, DOES NOT mean they’re not in play for NFL DFS GPP lineups. I love to get a mixture of both in my GPP builds.

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks:

Jalen Hurts ($8,300 DK / $9,200 FD) – without question the clear QB1 on this slate, but it comes at a significant cost. Usually, I take the route of the cant-miss quarterback, but I don’t love how expensive Jalen Hurts is in what should be a blowout atmosphere for the double-digit favorite Philadelphia Eagles.
Tua Tagovailoa ($6,200 DK / $7,700 FD) – the mid-tier, high-upside option going up against the Detroit Lions (31st in pass defense DVOA) in a dome.
Sam Ehlinger ($4,000 DK ONLY) – a stone minimum of $4,000 for a quarterback is just too hard to pass up, especially when the ownership is going to be there.

Honorable Mention: Daniel Jones

GPP Favorites:

Kyler Murray ($7,500 DK / $8,200 FD) – likely the only quarterback with upside that is close to a Jalen Hurts ceiling game. We haven’t seen it yet, but the AETY Model expects this to be an up-tempo shootout with a lot of fantasy fireworks. Keep an eye out for the offensive line injury report as they’re quite banged up right now.
Kirk Cousins ($6,100 DK / $7,800 FD) – on the other side of Kyler Murray is Kirk Cousins. If you have not got the theme of the AETY Model this year, it absolutely loves picking on the Arizona secondary. Cousins will be the forgotten child as he’s priced right next to Tua Tagovailoa and he can pay dividends this week if this game shoots out.

Honorable Mention: Jared Goff, Dak Prescott

NFL DFS Running Backs (Full-Player Pool, GPP & Cash):

Derrick Henry ($8,400 DK / $10,000 FD) – hard to avoid a top-tier running back against the Houston Texans right now. Likely a pass for me on FanDuel but will get my exposure on DraftKings where Henry is much more affordable for NFL DFS lineups.
Saquon Barkley ($8,100 DK / $9,500 FD)
Alvin Kamara ($7,100 DK / $7,800 FD) – low-key a fantastic matchup for Kamara at home against the Raiders’ defense who grade 20th in run defense DVOA and 23rd in DVOA against opposing running backs. The Raiders will likely show a decent bit of Cover-2 and bring a lot of blitz… that’s where Alvin Kamara gets targeted at a high-clip (on top of a very high receiving baseline).
Kenneth Walker III ($6,500 DK / $8,400 FD) – still way too cheap on DraftKings for the expected usage and matchup against the Giants’ 30th ranked run defense (DVOA).
Tony Pollard ($6,100 DK / $6,300 FD) – no Ezekiel Elliott, take the free square on the best value running back this week.
Raheem Mostert ($5,900 DK / $6,800 FD) – starting to get a full, RB1 workload and a matchup against the Detroit Lions (29th in run defense DVOA). Just like last week when we played Elliott in this spot, there is significant multiple touchdown equity against this defense.

Honorable Mention: Miles Sanders (GPP only), D’Onta Foreman (Hubbard is OUT, cheap plug and play)

NFL DFS Cash Game Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($8,600 DK / $8,500 FD) – likely no Lattimore again this week (as if it matters for Davante Adams anyways).
Tyreek Hill ($8,500 DK / $8,700 FD) – Tyreek will be the nut-chalk wide receiver on this slate and for good reason. This is an absolute smash spot, but I do have my concerns with Detroit’s ability to keep up the pace. If they can, this will be a back-and-forth, fantasy gold NFL DFS matchup.
DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400 DK / $7,900 FD) – there is so many great wide receivers on this slate. I have DeAndre Hopkins with as high of an expected target share as anyone on this slate and the price is fantastic. With Hopkins running most of his routes on the inside, he’ll have the opportunity to feast on Chandon Sullivan.
Chris Olave ($6,000 DK / $6,900 FD) – way too cheap and in a fantastic matchup.
DJ Moore ($5,300 DK / $6,200 FD) – similar to Chris Olave, way too cheap for the wide receiver with the highest team target-share over the past two weeks. A.J. Terrell is going to miss this game and that will open up a lot for DJ Moore. The pace of this game will be gross, so temper expectations a bit for NFL DFS GPP lineups although the value still warrants a roster spot.

Honorable Mention: Garrett Wilson, Wan’Dale Robinson, Tyler Lockett

GPP Favorites:

Justin Jefferson ($9,100 DK / $9,000 FD) – Mr. Wilson! The weekly pick-on Marco Wilson matchup… this time, it’s the best wide receiver in the NFL. Adam Thielen will also get a lot of Marco as well and I love the discount there.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6,900 DK / $7,200 FD)
Jaylen Waddle ($6,700 DK / $7,800 FD)
Phillip Dorsett ($3,200 DK / $5,300 FD) – Dorsett will be an under-the-radar core play for me in GPP lineups (if Nico Collins is ruled out). I love attacking the Titans’ secondary and Dorsett is playing to make a name for himself after he’s disappeared from the league in recent history. As long as the Titans can score at will and King Henry runs wild, Dorsett and the Texans offense will have to abandon the running game early, and he’ll line up as the X wide receiver. It’s very likely to disappoint, but if he can find a way to get 10+ points, he’ll be a 2% owned, NFL DFS salary relief savior.

Honorable Mention: A.J. Brown, Cooper Kupp, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup

NFL DFS Tight-Ends (Full-Player Pool, GPP & Cash):

Zach Ertz ($5,100 DK / $6,000 FD)
T.J. Hockenson ($4,900 DK / $6,300 FD)
Pat Freiermuth ($3,900 DK / $5,700 FD)
Irv Smith ($3,500 DK / $5,000 FD)
Juwan Johnson ($3,200 DK / $5,200 FD)

Honorable Mention: George Kittle, Cole Kmet, Tyler Higbee

NFL DFS Defense/Special Teams

Dallas Cowboys
Philadelphia Eagles
New England Patriots
New York Jets
Los Angeles Rams
Washington Commanders

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (Cash Games)

Tony Pollard
Chris Olave
DJ Moore
Kenneth Walker
DeAndre Hopkins

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 6 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks 3 years ago

written by StixPicks

Due to a week-long work trip, I’ll keep this week’s NFL DFS Cash Game article a bit more brief. We can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
NOT part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 6, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Again, TONS of value at the running back position.
Great QB pool on the main slate this week. There should be no need to get cute at that position!
Injury and weather concerns look relatively clean this week. Check back on Sunday morning for any updates!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Josh Allen ($8,200 DK / $9,200 FD) – Obvious pay-up and highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate.
Lamar Jackson ($8,100 DK / $8,800 FD) – Similar situation as Josh Allen, but Allen is the clear pay-up on the slate with the game total against the Chiefs sitting at 53+ points and ownership all flocking to Josh Allen.
Geno Smith ($5,700 DK / $7,400 FD) – Horrific pricing on DraftKings, but the clear value for your NFL DFS cash game lineups if you wish to pay-down.

Honorable Mention: Tom Brady

NFL DFS Cash Game Running Backs

Saquon Barkley ($7,700 DK / $8,800 FD)
Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,000 DK / $7,500 FD) – If Damien Harris is OUT, Stevenson is in an incredible spot in a matchup against the 32nd ranked run defense (DVOA). He’ll likely be 70% or higher in NFL DFS cash game ownership.
Kenneth Walker ($5,400 DK / $6,500 FD) – No Rashaad Penny.
Darrell Henderson ($5,100 DK / $5,700 FD) – No Cam Akers, this is now Henderson’s backfield as a 10-point home-favorite.
Eno Benjamin ($4,600 DK / $6,300 FD) – No James Conner. No Darrel Williams. Take the freesquare.

Honorable Mention: Breece Hall, Leonard Fournette

NFL DFS Cash Game Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp ($9,700 DK / $9,400 FD)
Stefon Diggs ($8,400 DK / $8,900 FD)
Marquise Brown ($7,200 DK / $8,200 FD) – One of my favorite plays on this slate against the Seattle secondary, but likely best saved for GPP builds.
DK Metcalf ($6,800 DK / $7,400 FD) / Tyler Lockett ($5,600 DK / $7,500 FD) – on DraftKings, Lockett is going to be 60% or higher in ownership. Take the savings there and use Metcalf on FanDuel for your NFL DFS cash game lineups.
Chris Godwin ($6,100 DK / $6,800 FD) – The Steelers’ secondary is absolutely depleted this week.
Drake London ($5,400 DK / $6,100 FD) – Too cheap for a clear WR1 against a banged up San Francisco defense.
Devin Duvernay ($4,700 DK / $6,200 FD)
George Pickens ($4,600 DK / $5,800 FD)
Rondale Moore ($4,200 DK / $5,600 FD) – Not a big Rondale Moore guy by any means, but the ownership will be there and the value is worth a roster spot in cash.

Honorable Mention: Ja’Maar Chase, Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, JuJu Smith-Schuster

NFL DFS Cash Game Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,800 DK / $8,300 FD)
Mark Andrews ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD)
Zach Ertz ($4,900 DK / $6,000 FD)
Tyler Higbee ($4,600 DK / $6,000 FD)

NFL DFS Cash Game Defense/Special Teams

Los Angeles Rams
Cincinatti Bengals
Jacksonville Jaguars
New Orleans Saints
Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers

NFL DFS: The Fab Five

Josh Allen
Rhamondre Stevenson
Eno Benjamin
Tyler Lockett
Chris Godwin

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 5 Cash Game Checkdown

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

A little bit of a mixed bag last week, but still plenty of green screens in the Discord for cash. I personally lost most of my cash games due to the Javonte Williams injury. I stand by the play in Javonte and my model’s expected output for him, but it certainly may have been “too cute” in cash, as I could have just ate the Jamaal Williams chalk and went double Lion (Hockenson). Hindsight is 20/20 of course, but there was just no way I’d go against my roots and play a double Lion stack in cash (especially when their whole team was injured). Nonetheless, we’re on to Week 5 NFL DFS cash games.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
NOT part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 5, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Again, plenty of value at the running back position
Very thin QB pool on the main slate yet again in Week 5. Don’t miss on QB!
Injury and weather concerns look clean this week. We should be good to go!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Per the theme of my 2022 NFL DFS cash game lineups, I’ll be focused on the top tier Quarterbacks yet again. I will not go below the $6K range on DK at Quarterback this week and will be locked in on one of the following:

Josh Allen ($8,200 DK / $9,000 FD)

You know what you’re getting with Josh Allen on a weekly basis. The floor is arguably higher than anyone on the slate every single week. My only concern this week is the legit blowout potential this game has to offer as the Bills are a two-touchdown favorite at home against rookie, Kenny Pickett. We likely will not see a full on Josh Allen fantasy output like we’re used to, but the floor is high enough to lock in 2.5x value at a minimum.

Jalen Hurts ($8,100 DK / $8,600 FD)

What do we even need to say about Jalen Hurts? He’s averaging over 27 NFL DFS points per game and is locked in this week with a cake matchup against a struggling Arizona defense (28th in pass defense DVOA). I do have a hard time seeing how Arizona keeps it close, but the pace in this game should be an up-tempo, back-and-forth gamescript that keeps Jalen Hurts’ foot on the gas for all four quarters.

Tom Brady ($6,000 DK / $7,800 FD)

Insanely cheap on DraftKings and likely to be over 40% owned in NFL DFS cash games on that site. On FanDuel, Brady is still certainly in play. Most sportsbook are projecting Brady for over 2 passing touchdowns and the AETY Model Agrees. Atlanta’s defense as a whole has been a problem all season long and this matchup at home for Brady just screams the narrative of a Brady blowup game. Take the value on Brady if you’re not into paying up for the dual-threat Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts’s of the world.

NFL DFS Running Backs

Leonard Fournette ($6,900 DK / $7,800 FD)

Fournette has certainly been struggling on the ground over the past two weeks but the RB1 role is still solely his to lose as he’s logged 78% of the Tampa Bay rushing attempts since Week 2. Like Brady, this is a fantastic matchup for Fournette against the Falcons’ 26th ranked run defense (DVOA). The Bucs currently have a team total over 28 points and getting the lead running back with significant red-zone equity is something I’ll be locking in.

Jamaal Williams ($6,500 DK / $8,300 FD)

I’ll likely not get up to Jamaal Williams this week (especially on FanDuel at that price), but he’s certainly in play on DraftKings against the Patriots 31st ranked run defense in terms of DVOA. I do have concerns that Jamaal Williams is extremely touchdown dependent as he only logged 50% of the snaps last week, but the matchup and red-zone usage is enough to warrant going back to him in NFL DFS cash games.

Jeff Wilson Jr. ($5,500 DK / $6,500 FD)

Damn-near the freesquare cash game play at the running back position this week. The Panthers defense has been solid this year (especially against the run) but at this price, I’ll take the value for a 3-down running back who’s averaging over 17 touches per game since Eli Mitchell went on the IR.

Damien Harris ($5,600 DK / $7,200 FD) AND/OR Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,500 DK / $6,000 FD)

Yes, I’m okay if you happen to be bold enough to start both of the Patriots’ running backs this week. The Patriots will have Bailey Zappe under center again this week, so you know their game plan will be to lean on that #1 rushing offense (DVOA) against Detroit’s dead last rushing defense (32nd in DVOA). Over the past two weeks, Harris has averaged 16 touches per game, while Stevenson has average 17 touches per game. Despite the timeshare, these guys are getting modern day RB1 volume at ridiculously low price-tags for your NFL DFS lineups.

Honorable Mention: Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Dameon Pierce, James Robinson, Rashaad Penny, Tyler Allgeier (only if you really need the savings)

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp ($9,600 DK / $9,500 FD) / Justin Jefferson ($8,900 DK / $8,800 FD)

Pick your poison at the top of the wide receiver board if you can afford one of them.

Christian Kirk ($6,600 DK / $7,600 FD)

Christian Kirk is quietly 10th in the NFL in target share. Everyone else on that list (outside of Diontae Johnson) is priced well above $7K on DraftKings. I’ll take the clear discount as this is a beautiful matchup for Kirk and this Jags’ offense as a whole, going up against the Texans’ defense that grades 27th in total defense DVOA. Kirk will see a lot of soft coverage from Desmond King and the rest of this Houston defense as they mainly run Cover-2 and Cover-3 zones. Advantage, Christian Kirk.

Chris Godwin ($5,900 DK / $7,000 FD)

Assuming Godwin’s health is good to go, this is clear mis-price as Godwin got the benefit of the late game on Sunday in Week 4 (after the pricing algorithms run). As discussed, this is prime blow-up spot for Brady and this Bucs’ offense as a whole. Throughout his career, Godwin has averaged the following against the Falcons:

7.1 targets per game
5.4 receptions per game
85 receiving yards per game
1 receiving touchdown per game

Keep in mind, most of those games were without Tom Brady under center. Godwin should absolutely smash his price-tag in Week 5 against the Falcons. If you have to go double-Buccaneer in cash this week, I’m okay with it as they have such a high team-total.

Chris Olave ($5,700 DK / $6,900 FD)

Another clear pricing error as Olave will again lead the Saints’ wideouts in targets, air-yards, and red-zone targets at-home against the Seahawks 32nd ranked pass defense. All of these Seattle corners are stepping stones to another strong NFL DFS outing for the rookie standout.

Tyler Lockett ($5,600 DK / $6,800 FD)

On the other side of Olave, I’m extremely interested in getting the highest targeted wide receiver for the Seattle Seahawks in Tyler Lockett. I’d love to play DK Metcalf, but I’ll take the savings on Lockett and avoid the likely Marshon Lattimore shadow that Metcalf will see. Lockett should have a field day against Bradley Roby and the struggling second year corner, Paulson Adebo.

Honorable Mention: AJ Brown, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Mike Evans, Robert Woods, Rondale Moore

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

With Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews off the slate, I will not be prioritizing paying up at the tight-end position and based off of early ownership projections, the field won’t be paying up either. Here are some quick notes for my tight-end player pool:

Zach Ertz – nothing sexy, but a consistent target share which is more than we can say about most tight-ends on this NFL DFS slate. Philadelphia is a tough matchup for opposing tight-ends but the AETY Model projects Philadelphia to score at will, which should lead to a busy day in the middle for Zach Ertz.
Dallas Goedert – one of the most consistent and high-upside tight-ends on the slate going up against the 29th ranked defense at covering tight-ends (DVOA).
Tyler Higbee – Higbee is going to be the chalk tight-end on the slate. If you’re just trying to roll with the ownership, Higbee is your guy, but I certainly have my concerns. Higbee has been crushing against teams that blitz a lot and teams that play a lot of Cover-3 zone defense. The Cowboys will play a lot of man coverage and a lot of Cover-2 (advantage Cooper Kupp and potentially even Allen Robinson). I’m not sold this is a Higbee week in any way, shape, or form.
OJ Howard – If you need salary savings, look no further than OJ Howard. On paper, it’s gross but Brevin Jordan is likely OUT again, Jordan Akins has been going back and forth to the practice squad, and Pharaoh Brown is now on the Cleveland Browns. Howard logged 75% of the snaps last week for Houston and already has shown some of his red-zone upside this season.

He’s also 11th in the NFL for tight-end air yards (ahead of Tyler Higbee, David Njkoku, Irv Smith, etc.). The Jaguars defense will mainly run a Cover-3 zone and mix in a lot of blitz which should encourage Davis Mills to use those shorter ADOT route runners, like OJ Howard. At $2,600 on DraftKings, I’m in for the punt-play.

Honorable Mention: David Njoku

Defense / Special Teams

Per usual, I will not do a full writeup on defense. Here are the teams I’m targeting to cap off my NFL DFS cash game lineup (there are a lot in play this week pending your lineup construction):

Buffalo Bills
Tampa Bay Bucs
San Francisco 49ers
Minnesota Vikings
Miami Dolphins
Washington Commanders
Dallas Cowboys

NFL DFS: The Fab Five

Going to get back to my roots to post “The Fab Five”, which is simply just one more player than your typical “core-four” you get in the NFL DFS industry.

Jalen Hurts
Leonard Fournette
Christian Kirk
Chris Olave
OJ Howard

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 4 Cash Game Checkdown

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

What a start to the NFL DFS Cash Game Season, 3-0! It’s always great to see all of the green-screens on Twitter and Discord AGAIN last week. Everyone seemed to have smashed their cash games and we’re here to do it again in Week 4! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
NOT part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 3, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Again, plenty of value at the running back position
Very thin QB pool on the main slate. Don’t miss on QB!
Some injury concerns we will keep an eye on. Check back Sunday!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Same situation as last week the QB position is relatively easy this week for your NFL DFS cash games. We’re going to want a QB that has dual-threat upside or someone that can throw for 300+ yards and 2 touchdowns. There are very few QBs on this slate who fit that narrative.

Josh Allen ($8,400 DK / $8,900 FD)

Do not overthink this one. Josh Allen is the clear-cut QB1 on this slate. The game total is currently sitting at 51 points (AETY likes the OVER) and the matchup against Baltimore’s secondary has AETY projecting the Allen and the Bills to surpass 300 yards passing. This game is going to go back and forth and you’re going to want a piece or two in your NFL DFS cash game lineup.

Lamar Jackson ($8,300 DK / $8,800 FD)

He’s 100% superstar, half quarterback, half running back… he’s Lamar Jackson. If I’m not going with Josh Allen, I’ll be rostering Lamar Jackson. Simple as that. I need exposure to this game and I want the two most sure things at the QB position to start my cash game lineup.

Honorable Mention: Jalen Hurts

NFL DFS Cash Game Running Backs

Javonte Williams ($6,600 DK / $6,900 FD)

The highest I’m likely to go this week at the running back position in NFL DFS cash games is Javonte Williams. Williams is the clear lead-back in this offense in both terms of rushing attempts, targets, and routes ran. The only advantage Melvin Gordon currently has is red-zone carries and I’m quite confident those will start to go in favor of Javonte Williams in the very near future.

We’re getting one of the best pure running backs in football at a significant discount in a matchup against a banged up Raiders’ defense who are third in the league for rushing touchdowns allowed and 29th in pass defense DVOA to opposing running backs. Javonte Williams will eat.

Jamaal Williams ($6,100 DK / $7,400 FD)

Take the freesquare and ride the ownership wave of Jamaal Williams in your cash lineups now that Swift is out. I’m fine with a GPP fade, but in cash, you’re likely playing Jamaal Williams.

Khalil Herbert ($5,700 DK / $7,200 FD)

A bit pricey on FanDuel, but assuming David Montgomery is OUT, it will be wheels up for a massive Khalil Herbert workload against the 28th ranked run defense (DVOA) in the New York Giants.

Josh Jacobs ($5,500 DK / $6,500 FD)

Apparently, Josh Jacobs is going to be just as highly owned as Jamaal Williams this weekend so I’m 100% okay if you want to ride the chalk and use Josh Jacobs, but I really respect this Denver defense as a whole. At these prices, it’s hard to not lock in Jacobs in your NFL DFS cash game lineup. I’ll certainly look elsewhere in NFL DFS GPP builds.

Rashaad Penny ($4,900 DK / $6,700 FD)

I was planning on keeping Penny to the GPP article, but with the way I’m building my cash game lineup (heavy BAL/BUF), I really need any savings that I can find. Despite Kenneth Walker’s activation, Penny has 20 carries to Walker’s 4. This RB1 job is Rashaad Penny’s until further notice and at this price, I’m all about it.

Honorable Mention: Saquon Barkley, Najee Harris, James Conner, Dameon Pierce

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs ($8,400 DK / $8,700 FD)

If you’re playing Josh Allen, you’re already getting exposure to Stefon Diggs in your cash game lineups. If you’re going with Lamar Jackson, Stefon Diggs on the other side of that game is a must-play in cash. I’ve spoken enough about this game to go into further detail.

Drake London ($6,100 DK / $6,300 FD)

Drake London is becoming an immediate impact, rookie wide receiver in the NFL as he paces the Falcons’ pass catchers with a damn-near 33% target share. The Browns secondary is okay (21st in pass defense DVOA) but they’re going to play a lot of zone defense. Against zone coverage, Drake London has out targeted all Falcon wide receivers by over three times the amount of the next guy (Olamide Zaccheaus). London is a pure WR1 priced like an upper-tier WR2.

Diontae Johnson ($6,000 DK / $7,000 FD)

Damn-near the exact same situation as London (opportunity and cost-wise) just with a significant worse quarterback. Against the Jets and their 32nd ranked pass defense (DVOA), I like the odds of Diontae Johnson really coming alive here for fantasy players who were expecting much more production out of the Steelers star wide receiver. I do have a bit of pace concerns (41.5 point total), but if these two dumpster fire offenses can go back and forth against arguably worse defenses, Diontae Johnson will be a perfect fit to our NFL DFS cash game lineups.

Brandin Cooks ($5,800 DK / $6,400 FD)

Getting the theme of the wide receiver position this week? Underpriced WR1s. The AETY Model is expecting the Chargers to come out firing and force HOU into a pass-heavy offense and that simply bodes extremely well for Brandin Cooks. As long as J.C. Jackson is still banged up (better if he’s out… UPDATE: JC is IN), Brandin Cooks should walk backwards into the 2.5x floor we’re looking for in cash game lineups.

DJ Moore ($5,300 DK / $6,100 FD)

The Panthers’ offense has been dreadful to start the year, but the Arizona Cardinals pass defense (29th in DVOA) is something we’ve been picking on every single week in 2022. We will not stop doing that now as DJ Moore will see a lot of Marco Wilson in man-coverage on Sunday afternoon. That is a recipe for fantasy and real-life success. DJ Moore has twice as many targets than any other player on the Panthers when facing man-coverage. It will likely be DJ Moore or Josh Palmer for my WR2 spot in cash.

Viable “Punt-Play” Salary Savers:

Again, with my love for the upper-tier studs this week, I’ll likely need some salary relief at the wide receiver position. Here’s who fits that mold and is AETY Model approved…

Elijah Moore ($4,800 DK / $5,500 FD)
Richie James ($4,000 DK / $5,500 FD)
George Pickens ($3,800 DK / $5,100 FD)

Honorable Mention: CeeDee Lamb (weekly St. Juste matchup), AJ Brown, Josh Palmer

Update: Ownership trending heavily towards CeeDee Lamb. I’m likely going to lock him in to play the chalk game with a clear WR1 with double-digit targets in every game this season, not to mention the weekly St. Juste spot.

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

I’ll be locking in Mark Andrews in my cash game lineup, no way around it. He’s the clear TE1 on this slate and the AETY Model has him outscoring the next tight-end by over 5 points. As the field likely pays down at tight-end, I’ll be playing Mark Andrews and find my salary relief elsewhere. If you’re playing Lamar Jackson (we won’t stack in cash games), here is who I would consider:

Kyle Pitts ($5,000 DK / $6,100 FD)
Dallas Goedert ($4,500 DK / $6,200 FD)
Zach Ertz ($4,700 DK / $5,500 FD)
TJ Hockenson ($4,100 DK / $5,400 FD)

*UPDATE: With the new weather concerns in BUF/BAL, I’m fine if you need to pay down at tight-end but lets stick to one of the above.

Defense / Special Teams

Per usual, I will not do a full writeup on defense. Here are the teams I’m targeting to cap off my NFL DFS cash game lineup:

Denver Broncos
Indianapolis Colts
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles

NFL DFS: The Fab Five

Going to get back to my roots to post “The Fab Five”, which is simply just one more player than your typical “core-four” you get in the NFL DFS industry.

Josh Allen
Khalil Herbert
Javonte Williams
CeeDee Lamb
Richie James Jr. (gross)

3 years ago 0 comments

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