Well, we’ve been talking about the Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) model that was created in the off-season for NFL Prop Bets … It’s time to let her shine for Week 7. What a time to be alive. Please play responsibly and enjoy the AETY edge.
I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.
Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. This model is meant for taking advantage of sports betting market errors. If you don’t get a similar price to what we post here, it’s recommended that you do not play those NFL Prop Bets. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say).
| Team/Player | SportsBook | Line | Unit Risk |
| Tampa Bay -4 | DraftKings | -110 | 0.7 |
| DAL/WAS O45 | DraftKings | -109 | 1.5 |
| Marques Valdez-Scantling O42.5 Yds | FanDuel | -110 | 1.2 |
| Marvin Jones O44.5 Rec Yds Rec yds | FD | -110 | 1 |
| Jerick Mckinnon O52.5 Rush Yds | FD | -110 | 0.75 |
| James Connor O63.5 Rush Yds | DK | -134 | 0.8 |
| Mike Evans O51.5 Rec Yds | FD | -110 | 0.5 |
| Dalton Schultz O27.5 Rec Yds | DK | -125 | 0.42 |
| AJ Green O50.5 Rec Yds | FD | -110 | 0.4 |
| David Johnson U65.5 Rush Yds | FD | -110 | 0.8 |
| DJ Chark O53.5 Rec Yds | FD | -110 | 0.6 |
| Marvin JOnes Rec O3.5 | FD | 118 | 1.5 |
| Stefon Diggs O6.5 Rec | FD | 124 | 1 |
| Cam Newton O215.5 P Yards | DK | 108 | 0.8 |
| Gardner Minshew O253.5 p Yards | FD | -110 | 0.5 |
| Matt Ryan U310.5 P Yards | DK | -112 | 0.8 |
| Kyle Allen U259.5 P Yards | DK | -118 | 0.9 |
Also, keep an eye on the WinDailySports NFL tab on the website. I’m extremely excited to announce the BRAND NEW Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool that is going to be an extreme asset to our daily fantasy and sports betting toolset.
People always value Implied Team Totals from Vegas that factor in field goals and minimal things that do not impact daily fantasy… the new Adjusted Expected Team Totals are STRICTLY for skill position touchdown weights. You can’t roster kickers on your main slate lineups, so why would you care about numbers that factor in kickers? You shouldn’t. LFG!
Best of luck this week on all of your DFS endeavors and NFL Prop Bets! It’s football szn.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as this football season moves onward.
