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New York Yankees

MLB DFS Aces and Stacks (July 7)

Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Friday and that means we have a full slate of games to work through for our MLB DFS lineups. Tonight’s slate is looking to be a fun one. We get to pick on the Brewers again with a solid lefty and we also have some very questionable pitchers that I’ll be more than happy to pick on with some bats.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Andrew Abbott vs. Milwaukee Brewers

My strategy to pick on the Brewers with lefties this season has mostly been a successful one. We’ve seen pitchers like Rich Hill do well against them. Tonight they’ll actually face a dominant lefty and this has the makings for a monster night for the young Cincy southpaw. Over the last month, Abbott has been splendid. He’s thrown to a 1.44 ERA, all while having a K rate over 30%.

He’ll face off tonight vs. a Brewers team that is striking out close to 28% of the time vs. lefties this season. So we have a strikeout pitcher on the mound facing a team that has a high propensity to strike out. This has ceiling game written all over it! Abbott will be a lock in all of my lineups tonight.

Dylan Cease vs. St. Louis Cardinals

It gives me some solace knowing that the award for the most disappointing team this season goes to the Cardinals and not my New York Mets. Through 87 games, the Cardinals are a staggering 15 games under .500. After tonight, it will more than likely be 16 games. The Cardinals will have the daunting task of facing off against Dylan Cease. While his last outing was subpar, prior to that we had finally started to see the Dylan Cease of old. He had amassed 36 strikeouts over 4 games.

I’ll take that level of strikeout upside every day of the week. The Cardinals aren’t a high-strikeout team, but facing off against Cease tonight there should be some extra K’s in there for us. Plus, Cease is only $8.5k tonight. We’ll be getting a pitcher that has a 35% k rate over the last month for less than $9k. Sign me up.

Other pitchers I’ll have interest in tonight will be Hunter Brown vs. Seattle, Brenna Bernardino vs. Oakland, and Justin Verlander vs. San Diego. That said, I’m not straying too far from Abbott/Cease tonight. For me, they are the clear favorites in terms of pitchers tonight.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Yankees vs. Jameson Taillon

The New York Yankees probably hit rock bottom last night with their blowout loss to the Orioles. Things start fresh for them today as Carlos Rodon makes his Yankees debut. More importantly for us though, they also get a very tasty matchup tonight vs. their former teammate in Jameson Taillon. Taillon has been an absolute mess during his time in Chicago.

Over the last month, he’s been dreadful. A 6.75 ERA, 8 homers allowed, and 14 barrels allowed. All of this in just 26 innings of work. If ever there was a slump-buster type of matchup for this Yankees team, it’s Jameson Taillon. With Taillon, we want to prioritize any and all lefties. They have just massive numbers vs. him this season.

I’m going to lock in Anthony Rizzo here. Rizzo has been very quiet of late. His power has all but been zapped and he’s been mostly a singles and doubles hitter over the last month. That changes big time tonight. He’s my home run call of the night. Taillon is giving up a .346 ISO to lefties. If ever there was a great get-right spot for Rizzo, it’s this. He’s not going to get better opportunities than this.

I’ll also look to include Billy McKinney as a value play. He should be in there as a lefty bat and he’s only $2.1k tonight. Other Yankees bats I like tonight will be Giancarlo Stanton, Harrison Bader, and Anthony Volpe. All three should do well in this matchup.

Boston Red Sox vs. Luis Medina

It’s been a while since I picked on the Oakland Athletics. That changes tonight. Luis Medina has been really struggling with his command. He’s walked 12 hitters over his last 2 outings. Somehow though, he’s only allowed 4 ER over those outings. At some point, putting that many runners on with free passes is going to come back and bite you. It’s going to bite him tonight.

If the Red Sox can be patient tonight, they have the potential to put up a very big number. Vegas absolutely loves them as they have a 6 run total so far. I fully expect them to get to that number tonight. With Medina, I’m not going to be overly worried about splits. He’s been pretty bad vs. both sides of the plate this season.

I’ll start out my Red Sox stack with their 3 best hitters, Rafael Devers, Masataka Yoshida, and Justin Turner. This is one of the better spots that Rafael Devers will see all year. It also helps that he’s coming into this game swinging a pretty good stick. Over the last week, Devers has 9 hits in his last 24 AB. His OPS Is also over 1.000 during that stretch. I could definitely see Devers taking Medina deep tonight.

Another Red Sox hitter swinging well right now is Yoshida. He’s 11 for his last 20 and has a 1.321 over those ABs. A 3-4 punch of Devers and Yoshida has a world of upside tonight. Other Red Sox bats I like here will be Jarren Duran, Triston Casas, and Alex Verdugo.

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Guardians vs. Daniel Lynch, Twins vs. Cole Irvin, and the Rangers v. Trevor Williams. The Rangers are a close call to my top 2 stacks. They have immense upside every single night out.

MLB DFS Summary

We have a fun Friday slate tonight. There are a plethora of options on the mound and at bat. I laid out my top options and I will be sticking with them in all my lineups.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS Aces and Stacks (June 30)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Friday and that means we have a full slate of evening games. MLB has blessed us with a 12-game slate of MLB DFS tonight. At first glance though, pitching is extremely underwhelming on this late. It lacks a clear ace and even the mid-level arms have clear risk. This slate does however present us with a decent amount of stacking options.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Osvaldo Bido vs. Milwaukee Brewers

If you just watched the Mets/Brewers series 2 things should be clear. The Mets are bad and have little heart. They’ll play out the string the rest of the year and will probably lose 90 games. The other thing that is clear is that the Brewers offense is also very bad and we can attack them with pitchers often. I plan on doing that tonight with Osvaldo Bido. Bido so far in his young has shown some strikeout upside.

And what is king in MLB DFS? Strikeouts. Through his first 3 starts, Bido has struck 18 hitters. He’s had at least 5 k’s in each start. With a matchup against a team in the Brewers that is striking out more than 25% against righties, I don’t see any reason to think that Bido can’t get us at least another 5 strikeouts and at least 15-20 DK points.

Bobby Miller vs. Kansas City Royals

The young Bobby Miller is coming off 2 extremely poor starts. In those starts, Miller gave up a combined 13 ER. Not ideal for someone that we’re targeting. That said, I really like this spot as a bounce-back spot for Miller tonight. The Royals aren’t a good team. If we look at what they’ve done vs. righties this season, it’s been pretty bad. They have a 24.5% K rate vs. righties and an OPS below .670. They also have a sub .300 wOBA.

All 3 numbers scream struggles and because of that, I really do believe that Miller bounces back tonight and puts up a similar outing to the 4 previous outings before the 2 blow-up games. In those outings, he had over 20 DK points each. Look for him to get back on the right side of the ship and have a dominant outing vs. a bad team.

Other pitchers I like today will be James Paxton vs. Toronto (risky though), Bryan Hoenig vs. Atlanta (also risky), and Shane McClanahan vs. Seattle.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Yankees vs. Matthew Liberatore

The St. Louis Cardinals have been one of the more disappointing teams in all of baseball this season. Midway through the season, the Cardinals are 14 games under .500. Things won’t get any easier tonight as they’ll throw out Matthew Liberatore vs. the Yankees. Liberatore has pitched very poorly this season. Over the past month, he’s allowed a 6.06 ERA. That number actually matches his xFIP so he’s performing as expected.

Magically, Liberatore has only allowed 2 homers in his last 16 innings of work. This is all despite having a 40% flyball rate and a 40% hard-hit rate. At some point, the ball will be flying out of the park more against him. We’ll want to focus on the righties in this matchup. Righties have a nearly .400 wOBA vs. Liberatore this season.

The first 3 bats I’m going to be focused on here will be Giancarlo Stanton, Harrison Bader, and Josh Donaldson. After a sit down with manager Aaron Boone, Donaldson’s bat is coming alive. Over his last 3 games, Donaldson has 2 homers and a double. He’s also driven in 5 runs. Donaldson has a long history of battering southpaws and he faces a bad one tonight.

Stanton has been a huge disappointment this season, but his bat too is starting to come around. He has hits in 3 of his last 4 games and has extra-base hits in back-to-back games. Other bats I’ll want to include in this stack are going to be DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, and Anthony Rizzo. The Cardinals got destroyed last night and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it happen again tonight.

San Francisco Giants vs. Cookie Carrasco

I hope I’m wrong here but the Giants have a great opportunity tonight to put up a lot of runs. The Mets will turn the ball over to Carlos Carrasco tonight. This season has been a huge struggle for him. Over the last month, Cookie has allowed an ERA of 5.56. He’s also allowed 6 homers over the 22 innings worked in June. He’s been struggling, the Mets have been struggling, and the Mets bullpen has been struggling.

It all adds up to the Giants having a monster night tonight at Citi Field. Righties have actually been the downfall for Cookie this season as they have a .422 wOBA vs. him and a .308 ISO. Both numbers are much higher than lefties have against him.

Knowing that I’ll start my Giants stack with Thairo Estrada, J.D. Davis, and Austin Slater. All 3 of these guys have been extremely competent vs. righties this season, with Slater being the best. Slater has a .419 wOBA vs. righties this season and he’ll be a priority for me in this stack. Just because we like the righties here doesn’t mean we ignore the lefties.

I’m also very interested in guys like LaMonte Wade in the leadoff spot, Joc Pederson, and Blake Sobel. Pederson has done a nice job cutting down on strikeouts vs. righties this season and also has a .238 ISO vs. them. This is a great spot for him tonight and his teammates.

Other bats I like tonight will be the White Sox vs. Luis Medina, Tigers vs. Austin Gomber, and Angels vs. Tommy Henry (Ohtani goes deep, again).

MLB DFS Summary

Tonight’s going to be a tricky slate. Pitching is very watered down and some of the top stacks have a lot of risk. I doubt I’ll be straying from the players I mentioned here.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (May 10)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Wednesday and that means day baseball! We have ourselves a nice-looking 9-game slate of MLB DFS this afternoon. This slate offers a little bit of everything. Solid arms and bad arms will be plentiful.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Clayton Kershaw vs. Milwaukee Brewers

We’re going to dial back the clock a bit and go with Clayton Kershaw. He’s facing off against a Brewers team that has been dreadful vs. lefties this season. This afternoon’s projected lineup for the Brewers has a strike-out rate over 28% vs. lefties on the year and has done little in the way of power as they have a .123 ISO and a .281 wOBA. This is a great spot for Kershaw today to rebound from his rough outing vs. the Padres. Look for Kershaw to have a monster day today.

Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Cleveland Guardians

Eduardo Rodriguez is having a really nice bounce-back year after a pretty poor 2022. Over the last month, Rodriguez has an ERA under 1 and a strikeout rate of over 27%. When hitters have been making contact against him, it’s been mostly weak contact as they have only a 23% hard-hit rate.

He’ll be facing a disappointing Guardians lineup. This is also a lineup that has really struggled vs. lefties this season. They have just a .635 OPS and .281 wOBA. This is a spot where Rodriguez should continue his dominating run.

Other arms that I’ll be interested in today will be Christian Javier vs. the Angels and Merrill Kelly vs. Miami.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Yankees vs. Kyle Muller

If it’s not broken, don’t fix it. The Yankees so far have put up 17 runs during the first 2 games of this series. With Kyle Muller on the mound, there’s no reason to think they’re going to slow down today. Muller has been bad. Over his last 6 starts, he’s given up at least 4 ER in 5 of them. The one time that he didn’t was against a below-average offense in the Reds.

In his last 23 innings of work, he’s allowed 11 barrels and 5 homers. Just a dream scenario for the Yankees this afternoon. I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits in this one because his numbers have been neutral.

While Aaron Judge will be the main draw here, I’m going to look to prioritize getting three of his teammates into my lineup today. Those guys are Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres, and Harrison Bader. These 3 have been tearing the cover off the ball of late. In last night’s 10-run outing, they combined for 7 hits, 6 RBI, and 5 runs scored. All 3 of them have also been hitting lefties extremely well this season.

I won’t talk you out of playing Judge today, but make sure you also get these 3 into your lineup. With it being against A’s today, anyone that makes the lineup today for the Yankees is in play. Full stack here

San Francisco Giants vs. Josiah Gray

Josiah Gray hasn’t pitched poorly this season but this game today just doesn’t set up well for him. He’s a flyball pitcher pitching in a stadium that’s expected to have 20 MPH winds today blowing out to center field. Those flyballs that haven’t been leaving the ball will have some extra giddy-up on them today if they enter that wind.

The Giants have also been fairly powerful vs. righties this season. The Giants projected lineup today has a .219 ISO vs. lefties. If you combine the power of the Giants and the wind and Gray’s flyball tendencies, there’s the potential for some damage today.

The bats that I want here are going to be LaMonte Wade, Thairo Estrada, and JD Davis. Wade has been really good vs. righties this season, with a .411 wOBA and a .234 ISO. He’s set up to do well today. I also really like Estrada here. He’s been one of the more consistent Giants bats of late. Over his last 25 AB, he has 8 hits and has combined for 9 runs and RBI. He’s pricey at $5.5k but in a great spot.

I can also be talked into playing Joc Pederson and possibly Michael Conforto. Conforto is a little lost at the plate right now but has a ton of power and can easily take Gray deep today.

Other stacks I’m interested in today will be the A’s vs. Jhonny Brito, the Nats vs. Sean Manaea, and potentially the Tigers vs. Peyton Battenfield. With the A’s, a complete game stack of the A’s/Yankees game is very much in play. The cheapness of the A’s will counteract the costly Yankees bats and Brito just hasn’t been good.

MLB DFS Summary

We’ve got a lot of day baseball today and that normally means we really need to keep an eye on lineups today. Things can get wonky on day games after night games. The Yankees will 100% be my building blocks today.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (May 8)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Monday Funday and we have a nice-sized 8-game slate of MLB DFS tonight. We have some clear mismatches on the mound and we also have some glaring spots for offense. It’s looking like a fun evening of MLB DFS.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Zac Gallen vs. Miami Marlins

The biggest mismatch of the day today will belong to Zac Gallen vs. the Miami Marlins. Gallen has been a rockstar this season. Over the last month, Gallen is sporting a nearly 42% k rate and when he’s not striking batters out, he’s inducing ground balls with a 50% ground ball rate. Hitters have just a 68% contact rate vs. him as well.

It’s still early, but Gallen is making a case for his first Cy Young award this season. He’ll surely be able to breeze through a Marlins lineup that has a 24% strikeout rate vs. righties. The Dbacks are huge favorites tonight and rightfully so. Look for Gallen to have a monster night tonight.

Dylan Cease vs. Kansas City Royals

To say the 2023 season has been a huge disappointment for Dylan Cease would be quite an understatement. If we look at some of his metrics, all isn’t too bad and the old Dylan Cease is still somewhere in there. He’s been extremely unlucky as his BABIP against over the last month is a massive .375. That kind of number can’t stay consistent and we’ll see some positive regression coming his way soon.

There’s no better opponent for that to come against than the Kansas City Royals. Yes, the Royals just put up a whole bunch of runs but they were also playing against the Oakland Athletics. They struggle against good pitching and they’ll face good pitching tonight. Look for the old Dylan Cease to appear tonight.

Other arms that I have interest I tonight will be Nestor Cortes vs. the A’s, Hunter Brown vs. the Angels, and Marcus Stroman vs. St. Louis (weather is not conducive to hitting tonight in Chi-town).

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Yankees vs. JP Sears

With it being a day ending in Y, we’re going to go ahead and attack the Oakland A’s and whoever they throw out on the mound. Now yesterday was a little bit different as the A’s threw out a competent start in Mason Miller, but once he left the A’s bullpen proceeded to give away 3 runs pretty quickly. Sears is coming off a start that saw him shutout the Mariners for 6 innings, with the bullpen proceeding to give up 7 runs in the final 3.

Notice the trend? No matter who they throw out, good or bad, the bullpen is awful and runs will be scored. The one area of concern here is that the Yankees lineup has some holes. They don’t have Judge (he should be back tomorrow) or Stanton. I just don’t care here as the A’s are bad.

I’m starting off my Harrison Bader. Although Bader has only been back for 5 games, he’s made his presence felt immediately. Over the weekend he was on fire, going 5 for 7 with 4 RBI and even a homer yesterday. He fell a double shy of the cycle yesterday. He’s still very cheap at $3.5k and in an absolute dream matchup today.

Other than Bader, I’ll look to guys like DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, and Anthony Volpe. I preach this time and again, don’t leave Anthony Rizzo of your stacks when facing lefties. He has a .406 wOBA vs. them this year and that’s been somewhat consistent throughout his career.

Chicago Cubs vs. Miles Mikolas

I wish the weather was a little more conducive to hitting tonight (wind blowing left to right), but what a spot for the Cubbies tonight. Mikolas just hasn’t been good. Other than 1 start vs. the Giants, he’s been getting rocked. Over his last 28 innings of work, Mikolas has given up 9 barrels and 6 bombs. His hard-hit rate against is over 36%. Just not good numbers. Lefties are going to be important here as they’ve been crushing Mikolas. They have a .239 ISO and a 51% hard-hit rate.

You know what that means, enter Cody Bellinger. The rebound that Bellinger has been having this season has been fun to watch. While he didn’t homer this past week, he did go 9 for 29 with 6 runs scored. He’s been a huge part of this offense and one of the better off-season signings for any team.

Other guys I’ll look to here will be Ian Happ to get that lefty bat, and then Trey Mancini and Nico Hoerner. Rookie Matt Mervis is a solid value at just $2.2k. Can he get his first homer tonight off a pitcher getting walloped by lefties?

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Diamondbacks vs. Braxton Garrett, Giants vs. Jake Irvin, and Mariners vs. Jon Gray.

MLB DFS Summary

This should be a fun slate. We have a decent number of options both on the mound and at bat. With the weather being warmer today, look for the ball to fly out of the bandbox we like to call Yankee Stadium.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 21)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Friday and we have a massive 12-game slate of MLB DFS! On the hill tonight is Shohei Ohtani against a weak Royals team. Anytime that he’s on the hill makes for a fun night of baseball. With pitching tonight after Ohtani, we have a bunch of mid-level arms. We also have some bats in solid spots.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Shohei Ohtani vs. Kansas City Royals

Shohei Ohtani will be the chalk pitcher of the night. He gets a glorious matchup vs. an awful lineup in the Kansas City Royals. The Royals so far in 2023 have been downright bad vs. righties. They have a 25% k rate vs. them and an OPS under .600. That OPS is just brutal!

Ohtani has been pitching lights out, as usual. Over the first month of the season, he’s thrown to a .86 ERA and has a K rate approaching 33%. This is a matchup that he should be able to breeze through tonight.

Jon Gray vs. Oakland Athletics

I’ve been a huge supporter of Jon Gray since he came up with the Rockies. He’s shown flashes of brilliance at times and flashes of being a gas can at times. Tonight he should be more of the brilliance than the gas can as he gets a fabulous matchup vs. the lowly Oakland Athletics.

]Gray should be coming into this one fresh as he left his last start early thanks to a comebacker. He’s pitched decently so far this season with an ERA in the low 3’s. His k rate is nothing special, but he should have some upside tonight vs. an A’s lineup that does strike out a decent amount vs. righties.

Zac Gallen vs. San Diego Padres

This pick comes with a certain level of risk. The Padres are a tough lineup. Now that they have Tatis back, they’re even tougher. That said, they’ve looked beatable and inconsistent on many occasions so far this season. We also have a pitcher in Zac Gallen who has looked dominant in his last couple of outings.

He’s had 18 K’s over his last 2 outings and hasn’t allowed an ER. The Padres have a 26% K rate vs. righties this season, meaning Gallen has some strikeout upside tonight. He comes with risk, but I really like this spot for Gallen tonight.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Texas Rangers vs. JP Sears

The Rangers have one of the better matchups of all the teams tonight. JP Sears is coming off a quality start vs. the Mets, but in that start, he surrendered 2 homers in 6 innings of work. That makes it 5 on the season in just 15 innings of work. Sears’ flyball rate so far this season is pushing 61%. When you put that many balls in the air, you are asking for trouble. Righties have been doing the bulk of the damage vs. Sears so far. They have a massive .409 ISO vs. him.

Knowing that I’m starting off my stack with Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, and Josh Jung. Semien is playing great right now with a 10 wRC over the last week. He’s had 11 hits in his last 23 AB and has combined to either drive in or score 21 runs. He’s been the heart and soul of their offense while Seager has been out.

Jung is sporting an 8 game hitting streak right now and there’s no reason to think that Sears will slow him down. At $3.9k he’s no longer the value play he was, but he’s still someone that should make an impact in this game. He won’t have the platoon advantage but don’t sleep on Nate Lowe. He was dominant vs. lefties this year and will be under-owned due to the L/L matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Nick PIvetta

Nick Pivetta is coming off an awful start vs. the Angels. In that start, he gave up 6 ER in 4 innings of work. Overall, he hasn’t been awful, but he’s been giving up a ton of hard contact this season. Hitters have a nearly 37% hard-hit rate vs. him and he’s also given up 8 barrels in his 14 innings of work. That’s not a good ratio to have. Against a solid Brewers lineup tonight, he’s going to have his hands full. We want to load up on lefties here. Lefties have a .333 ISO vs. him this year. That said, righties have also been hitting him hard so we won’t want to shy away from them.

I’m loading up on the 2 guys in the middle of this lineup, Rowdy Tellez and Willy Adames. Tellez has a .314 ISO vs. righties so far this year and a .388 wOBA. He also has a 50% flyball rate which really lines up well with Pivetta and his 53% flyball rate. Flyball hitter vs. flyball pitcher should be a fun thing to watch.

Adames also has great numbers vs. righties this season. His ISO is up to .263 and his wOBA at .379. With PIvetta mostly throwing fastballs, William Contreras also profiles well here. He has a nearly .400 wOBA vs. righty fastballs over the last few years. Other guys I like here are going to be Christian Yelich, Jesse Winker, and Brian Anderson.

New York Yankees vs. Yusei Kikuchi

Yusei Kikuchi is coming off a dominant start vs. the Tampa Bay Rays. I just don’t trust him enough to think he can do it 2 times in a row. The start before that was brutal for him as he allowed 6 ER against the Angels. I think we get more along the lines of the 6 than we do the start he had vs. the Rays. He’s someone that gives up a ton of hard contact. His hard-hit so far this year is nearly 42%. Against a really good Yankees that, they should be able to fully take advantage of that.

The main bats I’m looking at here are going to be Aaron Judge, Anthony Volpe, and Anthony Rizzo. Judge, while he hasn’t done anything vs. lefties this season, has a long history of smashing them. Last season he had a wOBA over .400 vs. them. Against righties, Kikuchi mostly throws his fastball and a slider. Judge has historically hit lefty sliders hard when he makes contact. Over the last several seasons, he has .462 ISO vs. them. He’s my home run call of the night on a warm night on the east coast.

With Rizzo, I never shy away from L/L matchups with him. He’s historically done well against southpaws. Other bats I like are Gleyber Torres, DJ. LeMahieu, and Oswaldo Cabrera.

MLB DFS Summary

I know I omitted Aaron Nola from my aces and it’s for good reason. He just hasn’t looked sharp yet this season. The Phillies have been a mess and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Rockies put up a big number vs. him tonight.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 7)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Thanks to some questionable forecasts for storms yesterday, we have a really nice afternoon slate of baseball. What was supposed to be a 4-game slate, has turned into a 6-game slate. Those 6-games should be a ton of fun to both watch and play some MLB DFS on. Pitching is on the blah side but we have some good matchups and also some great spots for offense.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Zack Wheeler vs. Cincinnati Reds

The Phillies were one of the teams that pushed back their home opener to Friday, giving us a great matchup for Zack Wheeler against the Cincinnati Reds. In Wheeler’s first outing of the year, he faced a much tougher task with the Texas Rangers. Although he gave up a handful of runs, he also struck out 7 in just 4 innings of work. This Reds lineup is a much weaker lineup (sorry Jimmy) and one that should help Wheeler get back on track and have one of the more dominant outings that we’ve grown accustomed to.

Alex Cobb vs. Kansas City Royals

Through their first 7 games of the season, the Kansas City Royals have scored 17 runs. They are part of just a handful of teams that still haven’t gotten out of the teens in terms of scoring runs. Outside of the top 3-4 hitters on this team, they are nothing more than a AAA lineup at best. It’s going to be a long season for Royals fans in 2023.

With Cobb, we have someone that had a decent start to the year. Facing a much tougher Yankees lineup, Cobb went into the fourth inning striking out 6 and giving up just one run thanks to a homer by Giancarlo Stanton. Cobb is a groundball pitcher and if he can combine his strikeouts with his groundball tendencies, he should be able to thoroughly dominate this weak Royals lineup today.

Hunter Green vs. Philadelphia Phillies

This is a wild card pick today. The Phillies haven’t yet looked themselves this season. They’re just 1-5 through 6 games and like the Royals, they are one of the handful of teams to currently have less than 20 runs scored on this young season. Do they have a strong lineup? Yes, but it’s also one that’s banged up.

This is a matchup that Greene could potentially really excel in. Last season, he had a 35% k rate vs. lefties compared to just 26.5% vs. righties. He’s going to face a lineup today that potentially has 5 lefties in it. He’s going to give up some damage, but the fastball-throwing Greene has a high strikeout capability today.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Yankees vs. Dean Kremer

The Yankees get one of the best matchups on the board today as they take on Dean Kremer. Kremer struggled in his initial outing vs. Boston, giving up 5 ER in just 3 innings of work and also allowing 2 homers. Hitters had a nearly 55% hard-hit rate vs. him and a 64% flyball rate. What a deadly combo to give up! If he’s as hittable today vs. the Yankees, the Yankees can put up a massive number vs. him and the Orioles’ bullpen.

Core: Any Yankees stack needs to start with Aaron Judge. He’s got home run potential in every at-bat and with a flyball pitcher on the mound, that potential goes up exponentially. He’s already up to 2 bombs, look for him to add at least a third one to his total today. I also really like Gleyber Torres here. Torres has been one of the Yankees’ better bats to start the 2023 campaign. You could argue he’s been their best bat so far. He’s not only putting up numbers at the plate, but he’s also up to 5 stolen bases. In this new era of MLB, stolen bases have become more of a common occurrence. A homer and a stolen base aren’t out of the question from Torres today.

Secondary: Other bats we’ll want to target here are going to be Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMehieu, and Oswaldo Cabrera. A full stack of the Yankees is very much in play, with 4 as my preferred number. They should all be able to get to Kremer today.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Clarke Schmidt

A complete game stack of the game in Baltimore today is very much in play. Schmidt had a little bit of a rough go at it in his first outing vs. the Giants. While he was able to strike out 5 in just a little over 3 innings of work, he also gave up 2 bombs and 3 ER. Hitters had a 50% hard-hit rate vs. him and had 3 barrels. A nearly 1:1 ratio of barrels to innings pitched is one I like to see when stacking against a pitcher. He’s going to have his hands full with a very good Orioles lineup today.

Core: This Orioles lineup has been exceptional to start the year. If they had good pitching, they’d be in a much better spot. My core with the Orioles today will be Austin Hays, Jorge Mateo, and Cedric Mullins. All three of these guys have started out the year extremely strong. Mateo has shown both power and speed to start the year. He’s already banged 2 homers while swiping 4 bags. He’s always a risk to get a 0, but he’s also someone that has extreme upside thanks to his speed/power combo. Mullins is also in the same boat as Mateo. He’s shown power and speed to start the year.

Secondary: Other bats that will round out my Orioles stack today will be Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle, and Gunnar Henderson. Rutschman has really cooled off since his opening day 5-5 game, but he’s one of the top young bats in the game and can go off at any time. My favorite of the secondary bats is Ryan Mountcastle. He’s been hitting the ball extremely well.

San Francisco Giants vs. Brad Keller

The Giants get a great matchup today vs. Brad Keller. Keller is an average at-best pitcher who has back-to-back seasons with an ERA over 5. In his initial outing this season vs. the Twins, Keller did strike out 5. He also walked 4 and gave up 5 hits in just over 4 innings of work. That equates to a WHIP of pretty close to 2. One of the most important things in MLB DFS is targeting pitchers that put guys on. A WHIP of 1.93 is really bad, making Keller a prime target for stacking against today.

Core: My core with the Giants is going to be their left-handed power bats plus a right-handed bat. I’m going to be targeting guys like Michael Conforto, Joc Pederson, and David Villar. All three of these guys have home-run potential in this matchup. Conforto, after missing all of the 2022 season with a bum shoulder, had his breakout game yesterday. He reached base 5 times and even went deep for his second homer of the season. Expect more of that today. All three are extremely cheap today too.

Secondary/Value: I also like Mike Yastrzemski, LaMonte Wade, and Brandon Crawford. This lineup today has a ton of potential against Keller.

MLB DFS Summary

This early slate looks to be a lot of fun. We have some solid pitching plus some bats in really good spots. That Orioles/Yankees game looks juicy from a stacking standpoint.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Sept. 23)

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Friday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Tonight we have a massive 12-game slate of MLB DFS tonight. Even though we have 24 teams in action tonight, pitching at first glance appears to be limited. The good news with that is that there will be plenty of bats to go around!

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Carlos Rodon vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

We saw a few nights ago what a dominant lefty could do against this Diamondbacks lineup when Kershaw struck out 10 in just 6 innings of work. While I wouldn’t quite put Rodon and Kershaw in the same category, Rodon is in a stretch right now where he’s pitching great. Over the last month, Rodon has had a 38% K rate across 20 innings. He’s reached double-digit K’s in 4 of his last 6 starts.

Rodon has faced this Diamondbacks team 3 times now and has racked up 28 strikeouts. While the Diamondbacks lineup can surprise at times, they’ve been playing poorly over the last week with just 22 runs scored and a 30% k rate. I really like this spot for Rodon tonight.

Lucas Giolito vs. Detroit Tigers

This season has largely been a disappointment for Lucas Giolito. He’s having his worst season since 2018. His K’s are down and ERA is up. That said, he’s also been quite unlucky this season as he’s given up a .351 BABIP. Giolito is inexpensive tonight and gets a solid matchup vs. a below-average lineup in the Detroit Tigers.

The projected lineup tonight for the Tigers has a sub .300 wOBA vs. righties over the last month. With Giolito being only $7.7k on DK tonight, I’m willing to roll the dice on him and hope that he has one of his vintage games from last season.

Chris Bassitt vs. Oakland Athletics

I’m playing the narrative here tonight. Chris Bassitt returns to Oakland tonight for the first time after spending the last 6 years of his career there. He’s going to be extra pumped to play in front of 5,000 screaming fans that used to root for him. Bassitt has been one of the Mets’ more reliable and durable starters this season.

He’s already at a career-high 171 innings and 14 wins. This is a bad A’s lineup and one that Bassitt should be able to get to. The projected lineup tonight has a 27.5% strikeout rate vs. righties over the last month and just a .294 wOBA. They can be pesky at times, but they can also be pretty bad at times. Look for Bassitt to have another solid outing and get win number 15 on the year.

I also like Shohei Ohtani tonight against the Twins. The Twins’ offense can be quiet at times. He’s not in my top 3 as of now due to the weather concerns later. If there ends up being no weather in that game, I’d slot him in there over Giolito.

There are a handful of pitchers out there better than the 3 I selected. They all get bad matchups or are just not pitching well. I’ll never trust Gerrit Cole, especially against the Red Sox. Andrew Heaney gets an awful matchup vs. a Cardinals team that has been one of the best teams this season against lefties. Aaron Nola gets the Braves.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Yankees vs. Dick Mountain aka Rich Hill

The Yankees get another solid matchup tonight vs. Rich Hill. While Hill hasn’t been awful, he also hasn’t been good. In 3 of his last 4 outings, he’s given up at least 4 ER. With a matchup against a hungry Yankees lineup, I can definitely see Hill making it 4 out of 5 starts with at least 4 ER against.

The Yankees have been really good against lefties this season, with a .199 combined ISO and a wRC of 120. They should be able to get to Hill with ease tonight. With Hill, you want to attack him with hitters from the right side of the plate. Righties have a .450 slugging % vs. him and a .333 wOBA. 11 of the 12 homers hit against him this season have been by righties.

Core: With the chase for 61 still going on, I’m going to center my core around Aaron Judge. The biggest concern with Judge at this point will be Alex Cora pitching around him as Judge walked 3 times last time. That said, Judge is in a great spot regardless of the walk risk. He’s crushed lefties all year and has a .423 wOBA against them over the last month. He’s pricey but well worth the price.

Secondary Pieces: After Judge, I’ll look to include Gleyber Torres, Anthony Rizzo, and Josh Donaldson. Of the three, Rizzo is going to be my favorite tonight. While he’s been a double play machine recently, he’s still getting plenty of opportunities with Judge being walked so much. He’s also been really good vs. lefties over the last month, with a .584 wOBA and a .375 ISO. I’m not shying away from this L/L matchup.

Value: Similar to last night, there will be plenty of value in this lineup tonight, making paying up for Judge easy. Harrison Bader and Oswaldo Cabrera are both extremely cheap tonight. I’ll choose Cabrera first as he’s been solid vs. southpaws. He has a .368 wOBA vs. them over his last 23 plate appearances.

San Diego Padres vs. Ryan Feltner

It’s going to be tough to fade the Padres tonight against Feltner. They are all extremely reasonably priced and get a great matchup. Feltner has given up at least 3 ER in 8 of his last 9 starts. Over the last month, he’s pitched to an ERA over 6 and an xFIP just under 5. He’s someone that we can somewhat safely say is going to get blasted tonight. Feltner has also been giving up a decent amount of hard contact at more than 37% over the last month. He has been a reverse-splits pitcher, meaning we’ll want the righties here. Righties have a .545 slugging % vs. him this season and a .390 wOBA. Both are pretty high numbers.

Core: My core tonight with the Padres will be Manny Machado, Brandon Drury, and Ha-seong Kim. With how bad Feltner has been against righties, these 3 really stand out as having the potential for big nights. Machado is coming off a solid game yesterday vs. the Cardinals, a game that saw him reach base 3 times and hit a homer. He’s also been strong vs. righties over the last month with a .373 wOBA and a .242 ISO.

Value: Other than my core, I also like Juan Soto, Jurickson Profar, and Jake Cronenworth here. Even though Soto so far hasn’t lived up to expectations that saw an absolute haul go back to the Nationals, he’s still one of the most potent bats in the Majors and could go off at any time. I’m just not going to force him in there tonight, especially knowing that I’m paying up for both Judge and Machado. .

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Mitch White

Since being traded from the Dodgers to the Blue Jays, Mitch White has really struggled. Over his last 18 innings of work, he’s pitched to an ERA over 10. While that seems a bit exaggerated, his xFIP over that period is still pretty high as it’s been close to 5.

He’s just been giving up a lot of hard contact at nearly 38%. White’s also been letting a ton of runners on, with a WHIP over 1.80 across his last 18 innings of work. With White, I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits against him. Both sides of the plate have pretty similar numbers.

Core: The 3 bats I’m mostly focused on with the Rays tonight will be Wander Franco, Christian Bethancourt, and Randy Arozarena. These are the 3 guys in the Rays lineup producing the most offense right now. Franco’s really hot right now with a 9-game hitting streak. He also has 2 multi-hit games in his last 3 games. At just $4.3k on DK tonight, he has a ton of upside. He should be able to easily pay off that salary. Next up is Bethancourt. Should he make the lineup tonight, he’s cheap and all he does is hit when in the lineup. In his last 4 starts, he has 6 hits. Aroz is coming off a monster game that saw him go 3 for 4 with a pair RBI. That’s 5 hits in his last 8 AB.

Secondary/Value: After my core, I’ll look to plug in guys like Ji-Man Choi, David Peralta, Jonathan Aranda, and Manuel Margot. Outside of Margot, all of these guys are under $3k on DK tonight. They are all nice plug-and-play hitters.

MLB DFS Summary

Other MLB DFS stacks I really like tonight will be the Rockies vs. Sean Manaea, Mets vs. Cole Irvin, and of course the White Sox vs. lefty Eduardo Rodriguez.

Make sure to check out our Home Run Model. And Also make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

3 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Thursday – 07/29

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have 2 slates of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. A 4 game noon slate and a 5 game main slate.

For the first time in a while Fanduel split the slates properly. I’ll be walking you through options I like for both slates. We have a couple of decent pitching options on both slates and some solid stacks.

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Aces

Gerrit Cole ($10.8K) vs. Tampa Bay Rays – After a stretch in June where Cole was really struggling with getting batters out and striking them out, it appears he has regained his form. Over the past 30 days Cole has a near 38% K rate and he’s brought his hard hit rate back down to just 26.9%.

The Rays hit for a lot of power, but we also know that if they aren’t hitting for power, they’re also striking out. Against righties this year they have a 25.5% K rate. Pitching against the Rays is never easy, but I like Cole to continue his stretch of solid pitching.

Luis Castillo ($8.9k) vs. Chicago Cubs – It’s only a matter of time before the tear down of the Cubs happens. We’re quickly approaching the deadline and I wouldn’t be surprised if we start to see some of the guys sit or get traded before the game.

In Castillo we’re getting a pitcher that’s been in excellent form. His last 2 starts have been arguably his best. He has 17 K’s in his last 13 innings of work. Look for Castillo to continue his solid string of outings with another dominant performance today.

Alec Mills ($7.1k) vs. Cincinnati Reds – I will be sticking with the top 2 pitchers on the day slate, but if you want to get a little crazy (and who doesn’t like getting a little crazy every now and then) you want to take a look at Mills. There’s been a noticeable trend with the Reds in getaway days.

The offense generally is quiet and with the weather today being pitcher friendly Mills may be a good option. Over the last 30 days he’s actually been pretty good with a 3.53 xFIP that matches his ERA. His K rate is hovering around the 25% mark as well. Not a ‘wow’ guy, but he’s serviceable and should perform well today.

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Bats

Chicago White Sox vs. Carlos Hernandez – White Sox largely disappointed last night. I’m going right back to the well today because they get a match-up with a pitcher that’s been giving up a lot of hard contact and a lot of fly balls. Over the past 30 days Hernandez is giving up a 41% hard hit rate with a 48% fly ball rate.

Hernandez doesn’t go deep so it means the Royals rely heavily on the bullpen when he pitches. In his last 7 outings the opposing team has scored 5 runs or greater in every outing. Hernandez’s fly ball rate shoots up to 50% against lefties so I want to ensure that Moncada ($3k), Sheets ($2.3k), and Goodwin ($2.4k) are in any White Sox stack today.

New York Mets vs. Drew Smyly – Really like this spot for the Mets today. Smyly is a very attackable pitcher. He’s a low strike out guy who’s been putting a lot of batters ton. His WHIP over the past 30 days is 1.43. If the Mets can show some patience today they should be able to get some runners on base for guys like Alonso ($3.6k) and Davis ($2.9k). Both guys should see a heavy dose of fastballs as Smyly throws it around 50% of the time to righties.

New York Yankees vs. Luis Patino – I should start with saying that Patino is a top pitching prospect. He’ll be a solid pitcher at the Major League level at some point. He’s just not there yet. It’s been a struggle so far and if we look at his performance during July we can see we have a pitcher that we can attack.

He’s had a 38% hard hit rate and a near 49% fly ball rate. Until he can show he can consistently get hitters out, he’s someone we should attack. He tends to do worse against righties so I’m going to load up on the likes of Stanton ($3.4k), Judge ($4k), and Torres ($3.6k). All 3 have solid power numbers against sliders and they should see a healthy dose of them.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Aces

Frankie Montas ($8.8k) vs. Los Angeles Angels – On FD tonight i really don’t think you’ll need to stray from Montas. He’s cheap, he’s in peak form, and he’s facing a beaten up lineup that’s even more beaten up with Walsh going on the IL yesterday.

Montas over the last 30 days has a 30% K rate, a 3.27 xFIP, and just a 25% hard hit rate. It’s baseball and anything can happen, but he really is in a smash spot tonight. Outside of Ohtani, this is not an intimidating lineup. Montas is my SP1 tonight.

Freddy Peralta ($9.7k) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – This is a little bit more than I’d like to pay for Peralta being that he hasn’t pitched past the sixth inning in more than a month and he’ll continue to not go deep. But we’re very limited with pitching tonight so he’s one of the pitchers I’ll consider.

On the year Peralta has a 35% K rate which is one of the best in the game. The biggest red flag tonight with Peralta is that he’s facing a lineup that just doesn’t K much as the projected lineup has just a 22% K rate vs. righties this year.

Alex Cobb ($8.6k) vs. Oakland Athletics – If Cobb does indeed start tonight he’ll be in my top 3 pitchers to use. He’s not a sexy pick as his K rate is only 21% over the last 30 days and isn’t much higher if we look at the year as a whole.

He is someone though that gives us one of the higher ceilings on the slate as he’s reached 45 FD points on multiple occasions over the past month and a half. While i will probably stick with Montas in this range, Cobb shouldn’t be too far behind in terms of results.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Bats

Detroit Tigers vs. Alex Wells – Who would have thought at the start of the year that the Tigers would be such a popular team to use as a stack? Not me. But here we are approaching August and the Tigers continue to put up big numbers.

Tonight they get a solid match up against a pitcher giving up lots of contact. In just 9 innings of work this year he’s given up a 46% hard hit rate and near 40% fly ball rate. With not being a high swing and miss guy, those numbers aren’t going to cut.

He throws is fastball more than 50% of the time and the Tigers have a bunch of guys that crush fastballs. My main targets here are Haase ($3.2k), Cabrera ($2.5k), and Schoop ($3.5k). Schoop will need to be monitored as he was a late scratch yesterday.

Baddoo ($3.5k) is hot and should also be a focus even though it’s a L/L match-up. Can’t expect Wells to go that long and at some point he’ll face a righty out of the pen.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Casey Mize – This is more a testament to the Tigers bullpen than it is for Mize. Mize hasn’t pitched more than 4 innings in more than a month and we can’t really expect anything different tonight. We saw yesterday that the Tigers pen is prone to blow ups.

This game has the makings of a nice game stack. If we focus on Mize he has very clear splits. He is far more dominant vs. righties so we’ll want to key in on the Orioles lefties.

Mullins ($3.1k) and Stewart ($2.1k) are my primary targets as both guys have upside and Stewart is near min priced. While the rest of the Orioles are secondary pieces based on Mize, they turn to primary pieces once we get into the bullpen.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chad Kuhl – Kuhl has been much better over the past 30 days. His strikeouts are up and his xFIP is down. That said, I still want to pick on him because the Brewers lineup is hot with 4 of their last 5 games being at 6 runs or better.

Kuhl tends to give up harder contact against lefties and the Brewers have a few that we can attack him with. Wong ($3k), Narvaez ($2.4k), and Tellez ($2.2k) are my prime targets. If Escobar plays tonight he’s also be someone I’ll want to focus on.

Bonus Stack – Toronto Blue Jays vs. Eduardo Rodriguez – There’s some weather concern in this game so I have it down on my list a bit. Blue Jays though are in a great spot. While Rodriguez has pitched well in his last couple of outings he’s also had a handful of outings this year where he’s blown up, with one coming against the Blue Jays in May.

Blue Jays line up very well with Rodriguez and his pitch type. They are a right handed heavy team and Rodriguez will throw them plenty of fastballs and change ups. We know that the Blue Jays are elite against fastballs, but they’re also great against change ups.

Guerrero ($4.5k), Semien ($3.8k), and Hernandez ($3.5k) all have ISO’s great than .200 against change ups. This could be another rough outing for Hernandez.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Bats

Both slates today will have limited pitching options. I will be focusing my efforts on Castillo in the early slate and Montas in the main slate. With limited pitching options we typically see great stacking opportunities and today is no exception.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports . Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 6/12 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s monster 14-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 4:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The weather concerns in this slate are sparse and minor, and we shouldn’t be concerned about any delays that could impact the pitchers we’re targeting today.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Corbin Burnes ($12,000)

There’s definitely part of me who wants to roster Trevor Bauer, and the Dodgers RHP is certainly worth a look on DK at a discount, but on FD, Burnes makes the most sense as top dog, as he possesses the most strikeout upside on the slate. While some simulations actually have Bauer projected for a higher total tonight (even WinDaily’s model gives Bauer the slight value edge — likely due to the TEX team K rate of 26.8% vs. RHP), the new crackdown on foreign substances has had a detrimental effect on the K numbers of a few pitchers, “Tricky Trevor” included. Burnes, as Adam Strangis points out in his must-read 6/12 Starting Rotation article, is coming off a monster start where he racked up 13K and 70 FD points. He’s a top five MLB pitcher and FanDuel’s scoring allows him and his 18.5% swinging-strike rate (a metric that ranks behind only Jacob deGrom this season) the chance at 60+ each and every night he takes the mound. We’ll have to get a little creative with our hitting stacks to build something we can be confident with, but Burnes is a great option for cash games and I’ll be using him in some GPPs as well.

Best GPP Value: Joe Musgrove ($8,300)

For the second straight week, Muskrat Joe takes our top value spot. He was serviceable in that role last week with a 10 K outing, but he did get knocked around a little bit to the tune of 9 hits and 3 ER — and the pedestrian 5.0 IP kept him from receiving the crucial quality start bonus we need from our SP. Adam and I both like him for today’s slate, and the fact that he’s kept his ERA, FIP, and xFIP under 3.00 in this career year make me happy to recommend him against the Mets. who strike out at a team rate of 23.7%. Musgrove is carrying a career-high 34.2% K rate and limiting his free passes, and the Mets don’t have their usually lefty firepower without a few of their better offensive players. Joe’s unlucky 6/5 start still yielded 36 FD points, and this time he’s the same price and should eclipse the 40 mark.

Contrarian GPP Play: Jameson Taillon ($6,200)

I was actually a little giddy when I saw that Adam was on Taillon as a GPP value play today, because he’s one of the first options I considered when I thought “contrarian play” for this slate. Taillon is effective against right-handed bats and the Phillies (who have a bunch of them) strike out at the third-highest rate in MLB (26.4% — tied with MIA and MIL). I wouldn’t blame anyone for going a little safer with value options like TB LHP Rich Hill ($7,700 vs. BAL), but the Orioles relatively low K rate (20.2%) vs. LHP makes me think he lacks the same upside, value and leverage for GPPs. If we want to stack some of the best bats, we’ll need what Taillon offers in salary relief to get there.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves vs. MIA RHP Zach Thompson

AS of 11:11 a.m. EST, there’s no line yet on this game, but you’d have to imagine that the high-powered Braves offense is projected for 5+ runs against a 27-year-old rookie making just his second major-league start. Thompson’s minor-league metrics don’t jump off the page and the Braves have just too much firepower to worry about using them. Go with Ronald Acuna ($4,300), Freddie Freeman ($3,400), Ozzie Albies ($3,400) and a still-discounted Austin Riley ($2,700) in a four-man stacks, swapping out Albies for value options (and righty mashers) William Contreras ($2,200) and Abraham Almonte ($2,100) if you need the salary savings to get four Braves in your build.

Value Stack: Milwaukee Brewers vs. PIT RHP Chad Kuhl

The Brewers have a bunch of risky but potent hitters in their lineup to go along with the consistently excellent bat of Christian Yelich ($3,800), including Avisail Garcia ($2,700), Omar Narvaez ($2,200), Daniel Vogelbach ($2,600), ~~Luis Urias~~ ($2,700) and Willy Adames ($2,200). Left-handed OF Jace Peterson is also an option at just $2,200. I’m particularly interested in four-man combos that prominently feature Narvaez, Yelich and Vogelbach as a three-man core, with Urias, Garcia, Peterson and Adames alternately making up the fourth Brewer bat. Giddyup!

Update: Luis Urias is sitting this one out.

Contrarian Stack: Oakland A’s vs. KC RHP Jackson Kowar

The A’s are never all that popular as a team stack on big slates, and today they could be in for an offensive explosion against Jackson Kowar, who carries a 54.00 ERA after one career start — a rocky debut outing against the Angels on Monday. The usual suspects are in play here, from “Mashing” Matt Olson ($3,500) to leadoff hitter ~~Mark Canha~~ ($3,700) and a slew of low-priced options including Tony Kemp (just $2,000!), ~~Jed Lowrie~~ ($2,900) and Sean Murphy ($2,400). I’m also quite enamored with Seth Brown ($2,400) as a risk-reward value option, and I’ll be mixing and matching a few different four-man combinations of these six A’s hitters in my large-field GPP entries.

Update: Both Lowrie and Canha are not starting on Saturday.

Other stacking options: NYY RH bats vs. PHI RHP Vince Velazquez, CIN LH bats vs. COL RHP German Marquez

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Thursday – 06/10

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have 2 slates of MLB DFS to navigate through on Fanduel. An early 4 game slate and a main 6 game slate.

For today I’m going to do an overview of the early slate and then provide the normal 3 aces and 3 bats for the main slate. Pitching is somewhat underwhelming on both slates today. We do however have some great hitting environments, especially on the main slate.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Early Slate

My lean here with pitching is Zach Wheeler ($11.5k) vs. Atlanta Braves. Wheeler has been dominant this year. An argument could be made that he’s been one of the top pitchers in the game this season. Over the past 30 days he has a near 38% K rate and a .216 xFIP.

The match-up is a bit daunting as he’s facing a strong Braves lineup. Braves can be had though as evidenced by Eflin’s 7 K performance last night. If Eflin can do it, so can Wheeler.

The other pitcher I’m considering here is Julio Urias ($10.8K) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates. Pirates are a mess and aren’t doing much against lefties this year with an ISO of .125. While they don’t K as much as I’d like, Urias still has a 30% K rate over the past 30 days and I think he’ll still get some K’s in this matchup.

For bats my top stack outside of the chalk Dodgers will be the Milwaukee Brewers. I like attacking Castillo when I can. I think this is a spot we can exploit. Castillo is giving up a ton of base runners this year and some power. My focus here will be the lefties. Daniel Vogelbach ($2.4k), Christian Yelich ($4k), and Omar Narvaez ($2.5k) all match-up well to Castillo’s pitch mix.

I’m also looking to the Detroit Tigers vs. Justus Sheffield. Sheffield on the year has a 5.29 xFIP. That’s bad. While he does give up a lot of ground balls, he also gives up a ton of hard contact, especially to righties. I hope Eric Haase ($3k) is back in the lineup today because he matches up really well as he has crushed sinkers this year. Jonathan Schoop ($3k) will also be a main target here.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Aces

Max Scherzer ($11k) vs. San Francisco Giants – I should preface this with there’s a ton of weather concern in this game. If it plays without any concerns Mad Max will be my top arm.

On the year Scherzer has a 36% K rate and a 3.25 xFIP. His K rate is the top on the slate. While the Giants offense has been pretty good of late, they are still striking out at a near 27% clip vs. righties on the year. Scherzer is the clear cut favorite on the night.

Trevor Rogers ($10.1k) vs. Colorado Rockies – Rogers has come back down to a earth bit over the past 30 days. On the year, his K rate his 30%. If we dial that back to the past 30 days it’s hovering around 25%. So there’s been a bit of regression with his strikeouts. He’s had some tough match-ups in there though so I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Today he gets to face off against a Rockies team that struggles away from home. I like the chances of Rogers returning to his early season form and rebounding with a 50 burger tonight.

Mike Minor ($8.2k) vs. Oakland Athletics – My builds will be tailored around the first two guys I mentioned. I am however a bit intrigued by Minor. Outside of his outing vs. the Twins, Minor has been pretty good over the past 30 days.

Since early May, Minor has a 3.56 xFIP and a 29% K rate. Those marks plus just a 29% hard hit rate have enabled him to put together a string of really solid starts. While I don’t normally like to target pitchers against the A’s, I do think this is a good match-up for Minor.

His main secondary pitch is his slider. If we look at the projected lineup for the A’s tonight, they all have whiff rates over 20% with many of them being over 30%. Not a safe pick, but if you have a strong risk appetite Minor may be your guy tonight.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Bats

New York Yankees vs. J.A. Happ – Happ is one of my favorite punching bags. Yes, we’ve seen the Yankees struggle at times vs. lefties. Matz dominated them just a couple of weeks ago.

Tonight will be a different story. Happ is just a gas can at this point in his career. He has a 5.83 xFIP, a 47% FB rate, and a near 38% hard hit rate on the year. He’s giving up big numbers consistently. In 4 of his last 5 outings he’s given up 9 ER, 6 ER, 4 ER, and 5 ER.

With the Yankees tonight we need to focus on the right side of the plate. Happ is giving up far worse numbers to righties than lefties. While this season has been a struggle for the Yankees against lefties, if we look at a larger body of work we can see that guys like Giancarlo Stanton ($3.6k), Aaron Judge ($4.3k), Gleyber Torres ($3.4k), and Gary Sanchez ($2.7k) all have had serious power numbers vs. lefties. They’ll be my targets tonight.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Dallas Keuchel – Yes, Keuchel is an extreme groundball pitcher. To righties it’s at 61%. That’s a whole lot of groundballs. That said, he’s also someone that is susceptible to the long ball. He’s given up 6 in his last 27 innings of work.

The Blue Jays have a ton of guys that do well against left handed sinkers. Guerrero ($4.4k) and Hernandez ($3k) both have ISO’s over .250 in a decent sized sample. Bichette ($3.5k) is another guy that has had success against Keuchel’s pitch mix. While the Yankees are my favorite stack, the Blue Jays aren’t far behind.

Miami Marlins vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez – Another one of my favorite punching bags is our dear old friend Chi Chi. Gonzalez is someone that is going to meet up with regression.

Over his last 30 days Gonzalez has just a 3.2 ERA. Not bad right? Well his xFIP is 4.86. He’s skating by with some luck. He’s giving up a ton of contact with just a 5% whiff rate and a 41% hard hit rate. At some point, those hard hit balls are going to fall and the damage is going to happen.

While the Marlins lineup is nothing to get overly worried about, they do have some guys that have some pop and with Gonzales not missing many bats I’m not as worried about their high strikeouts. Chisholm ($3.3k), Marte ($4.2k), Aguilar ($3.6k), and Dickerson ($2.4k) are all fine targets here as Gonzalez is bad vs. both lefties and righties.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Wrapup

Pitching tonight will be centered around the likes of Rogers and Scherzer. With the Washington game at risk w/ weather, Rogers may be heavily owned so going to someone like Minor may be needed tonight. Yankees will be chalk but the match-up is just so good. It may leave the Blue Jays under-owned in a very good match-up.

Good luck today and tonight and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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