ncaab

I had another day of mixed results on Friday, posting a consecutive 7-9 ATS mark. Sitting at 15-21 ATS is not sitting well with me. But if you’ve followed me since my starting days at Win Daily, I’ve never had a losing campaign. So I look at this like glass half full and we have 31 more games to pull out of this rut. But even with the bad beats and sitting in neutral, we once again saw the magic of March as two #12 seeds won outright and so did a #13 seed. It’s crazy! And it’s what we dial into our TV’s for this time of year.

We’re going to do something cool for this tournament, and that’s pick all 67 games against the spread. Realistically, that’s a bad idea for your bank roll. And I will not bet every game nor advise you do unless you manage the unit size you bet. But for the readers out there, I want to include info on each game in case you’re dialed in on a contest that doesn’t fall on my radar. So we’ll make three groups, BEST BETS (1.5 to 2 units), NORMAL BETS (1 unit), and FUN BETS (0 to 0.5 units). Now, let’s lace up the old Converse sneaks, make a few odd stretching movements, and hit the hardwood for what is going to be an awesome two weeks of betting. Just don’t pull any muscles in the process.

Feel free to read my quick breakdown of each game. But in short, here are my plays for today (All Games Posted by 3pm today).

BEST BETS (1.5 to 2.0 units):

• Dayton +8.5 over Arizona (Loss)
• Tennessee -6.5 over Texas
• Creighton -4 over Oregon

NORMAL BETS (1.0 units):

• Michigan State +3.5 vs UNC (Loss)
• Kansas +4.5 over Gonzaga (Loss)
• NC State -5.5 over Oakland (Win)
• Duquesne +10 over Illinois
• Iowa State -1.5 Live Bet (Win)

FUN BETS (0.5 units):

• Washington State +7 (Loss)

2024 Tourney Record: 15-21 / -7.7 units

SATURDAY MARCH 23rd – ROUND 2

Game 37: #7 Dayton Flyers vs #2 Arizona Wildcats (1245pm)

Both these teams got here in different ways on Thursday. Arizona needed a wake up call at halftime and then proceeded to pull away from LBSU. They also failed to cover the spread by 0.5 points which put some people (me pointing to me) in a small rage as the Wildcats led by 24 late and allowed Long Beach to score the last four points. But that’s March! As for Dayton, they went on a 24-4 run in the last 7 minutes of the game to turn a 17-point deficit into a 3-point win. This one stung the most as it was a best bet that actually would have move the needle to plus money on Thursday. But we roll with the punches and try to figure out where to get an edge in this game.

If you believe more in ELO ratings then Dayton is your team today. ELO doesn’t like the Wildcats like other rating systems, ranking them behind a team from their own conference, Colorado, a #10 seed. Overall Arizona is 15th in ELO. And while it doesn’t love Dayton, they are 34th making the gap much closer than other metrics. One other area that is obscure is the old RPI ratings, which is no longer used by anyone and has been replaced by NET. This has Dayton as the #4 team in the country! The other standards you’ll see all have Arizona in the top 5 (KenPom, NET, Donchess) so those are where you’ll see a wider spread for today’s game.

When I start putting them all together, and weighing each one based on recent results, I get a spread at 6.5. So because of that, I’m going to take the extra points and back the Flyers. They’ve lost 7 times this year, and outside of the loss to Houston, all other losses are by eight points or less. Meaning last game against Nevada was somewhat of an aberration when they got down 17. They have the look of a giant killer playing a solid out of conference schedule and ranking 3rd overall in 3-point percentage. If they get hot, they could pull off the outright upset today against Zona.

PICK: Dayton +8.5 over Arizona (BEST BET / 1.5 units)

Game 38: #5 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs #4 Kansas Jayhawks (315pm)

The college basketball world and betting public is down on Kansas. One reason is the Kevin McCullar injury as he is Kansas’s leading scorer. The other is the viewpoint from their last game where a curious call disallowed a block that could have given #13 Samford a win over KU. And then everyone saw Gonzaga rip apart McNeese State leaving two teams heading in completely different directions. Now over 80% of money and Bets are on the Zags

What I’ve seen this year is a Gonzaga team that struggles to guard good big men. Case in point Edey, LeDee and Clingan all scored over 20 points and shot over 60% against the Bulldogs. This looks like a favorable matchup for Hunter Dickinson and think he’ll have a big game and keep it close.

PICK: Kansas +4.5 (NORMAL BET / 1.0 units)

Game 39: #9 Michigan State Spartans vs #1 North Carolina Tarheels (530pm)

Michigan State is back and playing it’s typical feisty ways come March Madness. They ran away in their first matchup on Thursday with Mississippi State. Now, they come in as a short underdog versus the #1 seeded UNC Tarheels. And considering they’ve been through the battle tested Big 10, they should be ready to give North Carolina everything they have today. As for UNC, they earned the #1 seed but haven’t faced upper echelon competition of late with just Duke being their only ranked team since January. Because of that, I’ll take the Fighting Izzo’s to keep this one close.

PICK: Michigan State +4 (NORMAL BET/ 1.0 units)

Game 40: #7 Washington State Cougars vs #2 Iowa State Cyclones (610pm)

It’s hard for me to fade the Cyclones right now. But the Cougars play such a methodical game and will try to slow this down to a hault. We’ve seen money come in on the Cougars as this line opened at ISU -8. I’ll follow the money and take WSU to play a tightly contested battle today.

PICK: Washington State +7 (FUN BET / 0.5 units)

Game 41: #14 Oakland vs #11 NC State Wolfpack (710pm)

PICK: TBD (FUN BET / 0.5 units)

Game 42: #7 Texas Longhorns vs #2 Tennessee Volunteers (800pm)

Texas was able to completely neutralize Colorado State and dominate the paint. And they won easily without their star Max Abmas having an efficient night. But Tennessee is much like a Big 12 team, losing 10 of their 12 games to conference opponents. I like the Vols to play a suffocating defense and keep Texas in the 50’s. By doing so, they’ll get enough from Knecht and company to punch a ticket to the Sweet 16.

PICK: TBD (FUN BET / 0.5 units)

Game 43: #11 Duquesne vs #3 Illinois Fighting Illini (840pm)

Can anyone stop Terrance Shannon Jr for Illinois? But can anyone stop the Dukes who have won 8 straight? It’ll come down to defense tonight and if Duquesne can play the style they have for the past 3 weeks, they will keep this game in striking distance. The Dukes were ranked top 50 in defensive efficiency all season and will create defensive pressure hoping to turn the Fighting Illini over.

PICK: Duquesne +10 (FUN BET / 0.5 units)

Game 44: #11 Oregon Ducks vs #3 Creighton Blue Jays (940pm)

Oregon has been one of the few teams that has come up big for me in the college postseason. But I think Dante finally goes up against someone that can give him trouble in Kalkbrenner. And Oregon does not defend the three point line well. They play multiple zones and try to create havoc. A veteran team like Creighton will expose those zones and get quality looks all night.

PICK: TBD (BEST BET / 2.0 units)

TOURNAMENT BETTING RECORD: 15-21 / -7.7 units

To be posted by 10am Wednesday March 19th

Thursday brought us some memorable moments. Seeing Oakland pull off the massive upset of Kentucky was the icing on the cake. But we saw crazy comebacks (Dayton) and great singular performances (Cuisinard of Oregon). That’s March Madness for you! Overall, I went 7-9 yesterday but was 1-3 in my best bets. Nevada’s collapse really cost us a lot as they allowed Dayton to end the game on a 24-4 run.

We’re going to do something cool for this tournament, and that’s pick all 67 games against the spread. Realistically, that’s a bad idea for your bank roll. And I will not bet every game nor advise you do unless you manage the unit size you bet. But for the readers out there, I want to include info on each game in case you’re dialed in on a contest that doesn’t fall on my radar. So we’ll make three groups, BEST BETS (1.5 to 2 units), NORMAL BETS (1 unit), and FUN BETS (0 to 0.5 units). Now, let’s lace up the old Converse sneaks, make a few odd stretching movements, and hit the hardwood for what is going to be an awesome two weeks of betting. Just don’t pull any muscles in the process.

Feel free to read my quick breakdown of each game. But in short, here are my plays for today (Day Games Posted, Night Games coming by 12pm):

BEST BETS (1.5 to 2.0 units):

• New Mexico -2 over Clemson (Loss)
• Florida -1.5 over Colorado (Loss)
• San Diego State -6.5 over UAB (Loss)
• Texas A&M +1 over Nebraska (Win)
• TCU -3 over Utah State (Loss)
• James Madison +5.5 over Wisconsin (Win)

NORMAL BETS (1.0 units):

• FAU -3 over Northwestern (Loss)
• Duke -12.5 over Vermont (Win)
• Charleston +10.5 over Alabama (Loss)
• St Mary’s -5 over Grand Canyon (Loss)

FUN BETS (0.5 units):

• UCONN -26.5 over Stetson (Win)
• Grambling +28.5 over Purdue (Win)
• Yale +12.5 over Auburn (Win)
• WKU +14.5 over Marquette (Loss)
• Baylor -13.5 over Colgate (Win)
• Longwood +23.5 over Houston (Loss)

2024 Tourney Record: 8-12 / -5.3 units

FRIDAY MARCH 22nd – ROUND 1

Game 21: #9 Northwestern Wildcats vs #8 Florida Atlantic Owls (1215pm)

FAU was one of the stories of the tournament last year as they reached the Final Four for the first time in school history. They came into this season with high expectations, as most of the team that made that run returned this year. However, it’s been an up and down season, to the point where they were on the bubble come Sunday. But they made it, and now have a chance to put together another memorable run. They take on Northwestern who had a solid season ending up fourth in the Big 10. They played Purdue to OT twice, winning once. And they also beat Big 10 champs, Illinois. However, I think the athleticism of the Owls will give the Wildcats trouble. And the experience from last year’s run will help fuel them to a victory today.

PICK: FAU -3 over Northwestern (NORMAL BET / 1.0 units)

Game 22: #14 Colgate vs #3 Baylor Bears (1240pm)

Baylor is one of my sleeper’s to make it to the Final Four. They are battled tested, playing in the Big 12 against several top teams. And they have quality guard play in RayJ Dennis and Ja’Kobe Walter. Their head coach, Scott Drew, has a national title and is one of the best coaches in the country. They lost to a buzzsaw in the Big 12 tourney as Iowa State mowed through everyone including Houston. So they may be overlooked slightly but I expect them to come out and play hard basketball from the tip tomorrow. Colgate, winners of the Patriot League, have their hands full. They haven’t beat a team inside KenPom’s top 100 all year. And the two top 20 teams they played, Arizona and Illinois, beat them by an average of 22 points. Expect similar tomorrow with Baylor.

PICK: Baylor -13.5 over Colgate (NORMAL BET / 1.0 units)

Game 23: #12 UAB vs #5 San Diego State (130pm)

The UAB Blazers caught fire in the American Athletic Conference tournament and won four games in four days to capture a berth in the NCAA Tournament. UAB doesn’t shoot the ball well but they crash the boards and grab a high percentage of offensive rebounds. That’s a good recipe for success against teams in the AAC. But not necessarily against a physical team like San Diego State. The Aztecs are good all around but especially on defense where they rank 9th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Like FAU, they also made an unexpected run to the Final Four reaching the Championship Game. They brought back the core from that team and are ready to make another deep run.

PICK: San Diego State -6.5 vs UAB (BEST BET / 1.5 units)

Game 24: #15 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs #2 Marquette Golden Eagles (200pm)

A lot of Marquette’s chances to make a deep run in this tournament hinge on the health of G Tyler Kolek. There are signs pointing to his return as he’s been practicing with the team this week. He’s such a key to their offense as he leads the nation with 7.6 assists per game. But Golden Eagles also have a volume scorer in Kam Jones who averages close to 17 ppg. Their matchup against WKU is intriguing because of the anticipated pace. The Hilltoppers lead the nation in adjusted pace and Marquette is not far behind with the 9th quickest possessions. Western Kentucky had a four-game losing streak coming into the conference tournament but snapped that with three straight wins. However, they haven’t played a team in the top 100 all year and Marquette will be a big adjustment. Because of their pace, and Marquette’s potential for being rusty if Kolek is back, I think WKU can cover this big number.

PICK: WKU +14.5 over Marquette (FUN BET / 0.5 units)

Game 25: #16 Stetson vs #1 UCONN Huskies (245pm)

UConn clearly the best team in the country and there is nothing they do badly. In their 3 losses, all on the road, the winning team shot 50% or better including a combined 52% from three. So to beat the Huskies, you’ll need to have one of your best shooting days and hope they are off. Which isn’t a formula most teams can put together. Which brings us to Stetson who does shoot the ball well ranking 37th nationally in 3-point percentage. But they are terrible on defense ranking in the bottom 5% in most major categories including 343rd in defensive adjusted efficiency. They rely heavily on their starters and have a thin bench which could cause issues versus a UCONN team that can get you in foul trouble. Also, of the Huskies 33 wins, 15 have come by 20+. They know how to blow people out.

PICK: UCONN -25.5 over Stetson (FUN BET / 0.5 units)

Game 26: #11 New Mexico vs #6 Clemson Tigers (310pm)

Let’s stick with the theme of yesterday and back another double digit seed early here on Friday. New Mexico won the Mountain West in impressive fashion taking down favorite San Diego State. For those of you who haven’t seen the Lobos play, they have some familiar names in House and Mashburn. Except it’s the offspring of stars from yesterday; Eddie House and Jamal Mashburn. But make no mistake, both can play and give coach Richard Pitino the established guard play needed to win games in March. The crazy part of New Mexico’s run is that they were just 4-6 in their last 10 games before entering the MWC tourney. However, their opponent, the Clemson Tigers also fared similarly as they lost 3 of 4 to end the season including an embarrassing loss to BC in the ACC tourney. For this pick, I’m backing the hotter team with as Clemson is just 10-10 since the start of 2024 while New Mexico is 14-8 including a current 4-game win streak.

PICK: New Mexico -2 over Clemson (BEST BET / 2.0 units)

Game 27: #13 Yale Bulldogs vs #4 Auburn Tigers (400pm)

Prior Ivy League winners, when put in the right matchups, have pulled off major upsets in the NCAA Tournament. And Yale does fit that profile as they play at one of the slowest paces in the NCAA. But Auburn will try to get them out of that and create defensive pressure. The Tigers are in the top 25% of the country in steal percentage and 2nd overall in block rate. While Yale has size to matchup with an elite NCAA team, they will struggle against Bruce Pearl’s defensive tenacity. However, styles make fights and I think the slower pace of play will keep Yale in this one long enough to get us a cover.

PICK: Yale +12.5 over Auburn (FUN BET / 0.5 units)

Game 28: #10 Colorado Buffalos vs #7 Florida Gators (430pm)

This is one of the harder games for me to handicap because I truly like both teams. Colorado came up big late to knock off Boise on Wednesday in Dayton. But they were fortunate as well since the Broncos shot 2 for 18 from three. Colorado got outrebounded by a tally of 41-31. And that’s why I’m backing Florida here as they crash the boards better than most. They are 7th in offensive rebounding rate and are tied for 1st in the nation in rebounds per game. They also defend the three well, which is where Colorado wants to beat you. Even without their injured C in Micah Handlogten, the Gators have enough size and depth to give the Buffalos fits.

PICK: Florida -1.5 over Colorado (BEST BET / 2.0 units)

Game 29: #9 Texas A&M Aggies vs #8 Nebraska Cornhuskers (630pm)

The Aggies play an ugly brand of basketball. They don’t shoot very well, and they play at a slow adjust tempo (270th). But they rebound the heck out of the ball and force turnovers. Reminiscent of Bob Huggins teams which normally are difficult to matchup up with come March if you haven’t seen that style. And that’s what I’m banking on, literally, today in their matchup with Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are not good on the boards and have a propensity to turn the ball over. This looks like a stylistic issue for Nebraska and for that reason I’ll back the dogs here.

PICK: Texas A&M +1.5 over Nebraska (BEST BET / 2.0 units)

Game 30: #13 Vermont vs #4 Duke Blue Devils (650pm)

This isn’t your typical Vermont team though they have put up wins like their past teams. In fact, Vermont is 19-1 in it’s last 20 games coming into their matchup with Duke. But they do it with defense as they don’t shoot the three particularly well and they don’t have any standout scorers. Duke on the other hand, is prolific offensively and can push the pace. While the Blue Devils are often an upset candidate, I like them to take care of Vermont handily today.

PICK: Duke -12.5 over Vermont (NORMAL BET / 1.0 units)

Game 31: #16 Grambling vs #1 Purdue Boilermakers (725pm)

Will Purdue lose to another double digit seed? Or will they follow in Virginia’s footsteps and win the National Championship the year after losing to a #16 seed? I think they’ll fare better this year but their Achilles heel is turnovers. In their four losses, they were a combined -38 in TO differential. That includes a 16-5 mark last Saturda5 in the Big 10 Semifinal game. Purdue will outrebound you and they won’t foul much. You have to press their ball handlers otherwise it’s ballgame if they get it to Edey. Grambling will pester you, ranking 78th nationally in Steals and 50th in TO%. I say they do enough to keep this within the number.

PICK: Grambling +28.5 over Purdue (NORMAL BET / 1.0 units)

Game 32: #13 Charleston vs #4 Alabama Crimson Tide (735pm)

Alabama resembles Kentucky. Prolific offense that can beat you from everywhere. But they also lack the defensive prowess the Cats did and that can be problematic in March. Charleston has had better teams but they are still a team to be reckoned with this year. The Cougars come at you in waves as they have 9 players averaging at least 10 minutes a game. They’ve won 12 straight coming into today’s matchup and if they can stay close early will build their confidence to pull off the upset.

PICK: Charleston +10.5 over Alabama (NORMAL BET / 1.0 units)

TOURNAMENT BETTING RECORD: 1-3 / -1.2 units

To be posted by 10am Wednesday March 19th

Wednesday knocked me down as both Montana State and Boise State crumbled in the late game situations. But it’s on to the big dance now and the most fun two days of betting in all of sports. Let’s get to today’s 16 games and dial back in. And hopefully we get some great upsets and stories to make us remember this Madness like the Bryce Drew’s and Jimmer Fredette’s of years past.

We’re going to do something cool for this tournament, and that’s pick all 67 games against the spread. Realistically, that’s a bad idea for your bank roll. And I will not bet every game nor advise you do unless you manage the unit size you bet. But for the readers out there, I want to include info on each game in case you’re dialed in on a contest that doesn’t fall on my radar. So we’ll make three groups, BEST BETS (1.5 to 2 units), NORMAL BETS (1 unit), and FUN BETS (0 to 0.5 units). Now, let’s lace up the old Converse sneaks, make a few odd stretching movements, and hit the hardwood for what is going to be an awesome two weeks of betting. Just don’t pull any muscles in the process.

Feel free to read my quick breakdown of each game. But in short, here are my plays for today (Day Games Posted, Night Games coming by 12pm):

BEST BETS (1.5 to 2.0 units):

• Oregon +1.5 vs South Carolina
• Nevada -1.5 vs Dayton
• McNeese State +6.5 over Gonzaga
• Drake -1.5 over Wash State

NORMAL BETS (1.0 units):

• BYU -9.5 over Duquesne
• Morehead State +11.5 over Illinois
• Arizona -20.5 over Long Beach State
• Colorado State +2.5 over Texas
• Texas Tech -4 over NC State
• Stetson +7.5 over Kansas
• Iowa State -15.5 over South Dakota State

FUN BETS (0.5 units):

• UNC -23.5 over Wagner
• Michigan State -1.5 over Mississippi State
• Akron +12.5 over Creighton
• Oakland +13.5 over Kentucky
• Tennessee -20 over St Peter’s

2024 Tourney Record: 1-3 / -1.2 units

THURSDAY MARCH 21st – ROUND 1

Game 5: #9 Michigan State Spartans vs #8 Mississippi State (1215pm)

Tom Izzo either hates his team or despises his team. He never truly loves them unless they make a deep run in March or win it all. The way he’s acted this year, I think this one is in the hate basket. The Spartans struggled down the stretch losing 5 of it’s last 7 games. But they were in every contest including one against Purdue where they only lost by 5. In fact, they only lost 3 games by double digits this year, with two of those to Wisconsin. Mississippi State has some quality victories this year including a 2-0 record against #2 seed Tennessee. But they turn it over a ton, which can lead to bad losses as shown by their performances against Georgia Tech and Southern, both ranked outside of the top 130.

PICK: Michigan State -1.5 over Mississippi State (FUN BET / 0.5 units)

Game 6: #11 Duquesne vs #6 BYU Cougars (1240pm)

Duquesne is on a heater winning 10 of their last 11 games, including four straight in the Atlantic 10 Conference tournament to steal a bid from a team on the bubble. Now they bring that momentum into today’s contest with BYU, who had a successful first season in the Big 12. The Cougars beat all the top teams in the conference except Houston and finished 6th out of 14 teams. They live and die by the three ball, as 50.7% of their shots come from behind the arc. That’s good for 2nd most in the nation. While Duquesne plays good D, showing in the top 50 in several categories, they haven’t seen the quality that BYU will throw at them as they’ll shoot it from every position on the court.

PICK: BYU -9.5 over Duquesne (NORMAL BET / 1.0 units)

Game 7: #14 Akron Zips at #3 Creighton Blue Jays (130pm)

There were points in the season where Creighton resembled a top 5 team. They opened the season as the #8 team in the country and has a resume of great wins such as a 19-point thrashing of #1 UCONN. But they play with their food too much at times, even with one of the biggest mismatches in the nation at center (7′ 1″ Ryan Kalkbrenner). This was evidenced in losing to Providence twice as well as Butler. The Zips play tough defense and want to get into a physical match. They have the nation’s leading rebounder in Enrique Freeman. While their height may not matchup with Kalkbrenner, their physical style will. I’m high on Creighton in this tournament because they are one of the best 3-point shooting teams and they hardly ever foul (sleeper Final Four team). But I have this game at 9.5 points, so I’ll take the extra 3 points and ride the Zips.

PICK: Akron +12.5 over Creighton (FUN BET / 0.5 units)

Game 8: #15 Long Beach State vs #2 Arizona Wildcats (200pm)

Is there any team come March that is more frustrating than the Arizona Wildcats? Outside of Mike Bibby’s miraculous freshman season in 1997, Arizona seems to disappoint year in and year out. They haven’t been to a Final Four since 2001 and an Elite Eight since 2015. But here we are again, with another promising Wildcats team. Will this finally be the year they stop breaking hearts? Well today’s game against LBSU will go a long way in determining that. Arizona has had some bad losses, USC and Oregon St to name a few. And LBSU will push you as they have the 12th fastest pace in the nation. But for an athletic Arizona team, that should play right into their hands. Arizona is 8th in offense and 11th in defense and are led by Senior Guard Caleb Love (transfer from UNC). Experienced guard play, along with scoring easy buckets in transition, will help them avoid any nerves and roll over Long Beach today. Their last 7 victories have come by an average winning margin of 23.2 points.

PICK: Arizona -20.5 over Long Beach State (NORMAL BET / 1.0 units)

Game 9: #16 Wagner vs #1 North Carolina Tarheels (245pm)

Wagner picked up an impressive win on Tuesday in Dayton. But they got lucky, in my opinion, as Howard’s top two shooters combined to go 4 for 17 from three point range. Carolina has shooters all over led by ACC Player of the Year RJ Davis. They also have advantage in the post with C Armando Bacot and F Harrison Ingram. To beat Carolina, you must have an efficient offense that can keep pace because the Tarheels will score. That’s not Wagner’s strength as they are 333rd in the nation in Offensive Efficiency.

PICK: UNC -23.5 over Wagner (FUN BET / 0.5 units)

Game 10: #14 Morehead State Eagles vs #3 Illinois Fighting Illini (310pm)

Morehead State has the looks of a giant slayer. They put up a lot of three point shots and have a player in Riley Minix who can take over a game. Minix shoots averages 20.8 points per game which is 23rd best in the nation. And they have a sharp shooter in Khalil Thomas who puts up over 7 three point attempts per game and shoots it at over 43%. But Illinois showed how good they can be by winning the Big 10 Championship. They have their own star power in Terrence Shannon Jr, who is 3rd in the nation in scoring and netted 74 points in the final two games in the conference tourney against Nebraska and Wisconsin. But I’m going with the Eagles in this one to keep it respectable and possibly give the Illini a scare. Afterall, the last two Big 10 tournament winners both lost in the first round in major upsets; #1 Purdue to #16 Farleigh Dickinson & #5 Iowa to #12 Richmond.

PICK: Morehead State +11.5 over Illinois (NORMAL BET / 1.0 units)

Game 11: #11 Oregon Ducks vs #6 South Carolina Gamecocks (400pm)

This is one I had circled as soon as the brackets came out. Oregon is finally “somewhat” healthy and playing up to their preseason potential. They’re still without key pieces but C N’Faly Dante is feeling good and dominating opponents as witnessed by his performance against Colorado when he went 12-12 with 25 points in the Pac 12 championship game. They also get a major contribution from freshman guard Jackson Shelstad who has played 80% of the minutes or more since Feb 1st. South Carolina is a nice story, as they came became ranked for the first time in decades and saw their win total rise to 26 from 11 last year. My concern with South Carolina is that they like to play at an extremely slow pace and lull you to sleep with physical play. Oregon’s weakness, when watching them, was guarding the three. And the stats back that up as they were 255th in the nation in opponents three point percentage. They throw a 2-3 zone, and at time a 1-3-1 zone, at teams to try and create steals but that can burn them by allowing open 3’s (The Ducks are in the top 10% in steal percentage). SC won’t beat you with three’s and they will give it up at times. Give me the Ducks as one of my best bets today!

PICK: Oregon +1.5 over South Carolina (BEST BET / 2.0 units)

Game 12: #10 Nevada Wolfpack vs #7 Dayton Flyers (430pm)

We have the Mountain West showcasing their 4th team of the tournament in Nevada. They have a dynamic backcourt with Jarod Lucas and Kenan Blackshear dominating the ball. Even though they lost early in the MWC tournament, they come into today’s game winners in 10 of their last 12 games. On the other side, Dayton has a great player of their own in DaRon Holmes. However, they went 3-3 down the stretch and are just 8-5 since late January. I’m going with the hotter team and one that can disrupt teams on defense as well as hit the three at a high rate.

PICK: Nevada -1.5 over Dayton (BEST BET / 2.0 units)

Game 13: #10 Colorado State Rams vs #7 Texas Longhorns (650pm)

You know my affinity for Colorado State and they were the one team that showed up for me in Dayton by throttling UVA. They pass the ball well and play tough defense. Maybe Virginia wasn’t the best example, but the Rams held them to 41 points on Tuesday. As for Texas, they are just 6-7 in their last 13 games. That includes losses to non-tournament teams such as Kansas State, WVU and UCF. The only two tournament teams they beat are Texas Tech and Baylor. I just don’t think this is a well rounded team and I like the Rams to pull off the upset.

PICK: Colorado State +2.5 over Texas (NORMAL BET / 1.0 units)

Game 14: #14 Oakland Grizz vs #3 Kentucky Wildcats (710pm)

First off, I do think Kentucky is vulnerable to an upset because they don’t play good defense and their effort sometimes comes into question. However, they are prolific offensively and can put up 100 points at ease (surpassed that mark 6 times on the season). They shoot the three as well as anyone ranking 1st nationally in 3-pt percentage (41.2%). Oakland has played 4 tournament teams and lost to all of them, with the closest being 8 points. They finished 17-3 in their last 20 games which got them to the dance, but it’ll be a quick one-and-done for the Grizzlies. However, the because of the lack in defense with the Wildcats, I think the Grizz can stay within this number and get a backdoor cover.

PICK: Oakland +13.5 over Kentucky (FUN BET / 0.5 units)

Game 15: #12 McNeese State Cowboys vs #5 Gonzaga Bulldogs (725pm)

If you haven’t seen it yet, get a look at McNeese State’s opponents. They include four unranked teams with one of them named Mississippi University for Women. Who they beat 92-23. But don’t let that fool you, McNeese State’s 30-3 record is legit and they are a good basketball team. They shoot the ball well, ranking 6th in the nation in 3-pt percentage. And they force turnovers but rarely turn it over themselves. They have four regular players that shoot over 40% from three! In all, this team can play. As for Gonzaga, this isn’t your typical Zags. Without Drew Timme they’ve been in transition mode most of the year trying to find a primary scorer. Graham Ike, their inside presence, has done that of late but he’s also prone to fouling which he did in the WCC finals. And St Mary’s attacked Braden Huff who as a freshman struggled to guard the post. While Gonzaga ranks 9th in offensive efficiency, it’s because of the proficient play down low. They rarely shoot the three-ball, and when they do they make just 35% of their attempts. All signs point to a potential upset, but for betting I’ll take the points and the Cowboys.

PICK: McNeese State +6.5 over Gonzaga (BEST BET / 1.5 units)

Game 16: #15 South Dakota State vs #2 Iowa State Cyclones (735pm)

Iowa State closed out the conference tournament with a blowout of #1 seeded Houston. It was as impressive of a performance of any team this year. And it aggravates me to see them, who many consider the best #2 seed, matched up in the same bracket with the #1 overall seed in UCONN. I think that just may fuel the Cyclones and Head Coach TJ Oztelberger to press their foot on the gas starting tonight at 735pm. The Jackrabbits won the Summit League and come in on an 8-game winning streak but struggle on the boards and guarding the three. They haven’t seen the pace and ferocity that a team like ISU plays with which will cause major problems for SDSU.

PICK: Iowa State -15.5 over South Dakota State (NORMAL BET / 1.0 units)

Game 17: #15 Saint Peter’s vs #2 Tennessee Volunteers (920pm)

Tennessee Guard Dalton Knecht is one of the best players in the nation. And Tennessee is still wearing an embarrassing defeat at the hands to Mississippi State. This is a team that was 8-7 in Quad 1 games and 16-1 in all others. Simply put, they beat average and bad teams. And that’s exactly what St Peter’s is. They rank 350th in effective FG% and will have trouble making baskets today against the Vols.

PICK: Tennessee -21 over Saint Peter’s (FUN BET / 0.5 units)

Game 18: #11 NC State Wolfpack vs #6 Texas Tech Raiders (940pm)

NC State had an impressive run in the ACC tournament pulling off 4 wins and 3 outright upsets. Bit like the Big 10, ACC Champs haven’t fared well in the big dance. In the last 3 years, the Champs have just one win and have lost in 1st round twice (1-3 overall). Texas Tech isn’t UVA, or whoever else you want to compare to in ACC. They are top 50 in both offense and defense and rank in KenPoms top 25. The magic ends today for the Wolfpack as the Raiders advance to the Round of 32.

PICK: Texas Tech -4 over NC State (NORMAL BET / 1.0 units)

Game 19: #13 Stetson vs #4 Kansas

The injuries to Kansas have made them a shell of themselves. Hopes of a National Championship are likely gone with the news of Kevin McCullar Jr out for the tourney. And their star big man, Hunter Dickinson is playing with an injured shoulder. Stetson is a live dog here as they create turnovers and can hit the three ball. We just don’t know what Kansas team we’ll see.

PICK: Stetson +7.5 over Kansas (NORMAL BET / 1.0 units)

Game 20: #10 Drake vs #7 Washington State

TOURNAMENT BETTING RECORD: 1-3 / -1.2 units

To be posted by 10am Wednesday March 19th

The NCAA tournament begins tonight in Dayton with the first set of First Four games being played. However, the Madness started last week as we saw an insane amount of upsets in the Conference Tournaments. Bid stealers, as some would call them, left some prominent teams home. While I say the difference between the 68th and 69th team doesn’t make a significant impact on the overall tournament, it is fun to debate. And the simple fact that the Big East got just 3 teams in the dance is laughable. Not as bad as FSU not making the playoffs in College Football but not too far away.

We’re going to do something cool for this tournament, and that’s pick all 67 games against the spread. Realistically, that’s a bad idea for your bank roll. And I will not bet every game nor advise you do unless you manage the unit size you bet. But for the readers out there, I want to include info on each game in case you’re dialed in on a contest that doesn’t fall on my radar. So we’ll make three groups, BEST BETS (1.5 to 2 units), NORMAL BETS (1 unit), and FUN BETS (0 to 0.5 units). Now, let’s lace up the old Converse sneaks, make a few odd stretching movements, and hit the hardwood for what is going to be an awesome two weeks of betting. Just don’t pull any muscles in the process.

ARTICLE UPDATE: WEDNESDAY MARCH 19th Games Added. Results from Day 1 is +0.45 units.

WEDNESDAY MARCH 19th – DAYTON, OH (2 Games)

Game 3: #16 Grambling State Tigers at #16 Montana State Bobcats (Midwest Region 640pm)

Well Howard made a heck of a run at it late in the game yesterday to almost pull off a historic comeback. But they fell just short, literally speaking as all three of their final attempts to tie the game fell woefully short. But for a “Fun Bet” at 0.5 units, I got the price of admission. Speaking of admission, I feel like I struggle in 16 seed vs 16 seed matchups every year. So take this one for what it’s worth. Or maybe give it some extra juice as I’m bound to hit one!

Grambling State comes in this game on a significant hot streak. They started the season 2-10 and finished with a 20-14 record. Of late, GSU is 9-1 in their last 10 games with the only loss coming in double OT versus Alabama State. The Tigers finished first in their conference and ran away from each team in the Southwestern Athletic Conference to claim their first ever NCAA appearance. The issue with the Tigers is that they don’t do anything particularly well. On offense, they rank in the bottom 10% of the nation in scoring. The only thing that stands out is they get to the line, and Montana State will help them with that. But they’re FT% is just 112th in the nation.

As for Montana State, the Bobcats are a prolific offensive team ranking in the top 65 in effective FG%, 2-pt FG% and 3-pt FG%. And defensively they create turnovers with a top 50 steal percentage. And Grambling State will cough it up as they rank 344th in TO%.

I’m going back to the well and taking the more profound shooting team in a 16 seed matchup. Hopefully this one will give it a little more legs to get us to the window and cash us a ticket before the real games start.

PICK: Montana State -4.5 over Grambling State (FUN BET / 0.5 units)

Game 4: #10 Colorado Buffalo at #10 Boise State Broncos (South Region 910pm)

I know this is hoops but imagine this matchup on the gridiron. Coach Prime dressed in all white bubble jacket standing out on the Blue Field of Boise State. Sitting there shining like the star he is in a place known for ruggedness and being the Cinderella story. Well maybe for another year, but hopefully Deion makes an appearance in Dayton tonight to give the Buffalo’s some added juice, and flair.

Colorado was on the bubble coming into the Pac 12 tournament. Then three straight wins and an appearance in the last ever Pac 12 Championship game was enough for the committee to punch their ticket to the Big Dance. In fact, they won eight straight games at the end of the season before losing to Oregon on Sunday. I love their shooting prowess, as they are 5th best in the NCAA with a 39.4% three-point percentage. They are led by guard KJ Simpson who will play every minute and do it effectively, scoring 19.6 ppg. They also have a big force in the middle in Eddie Lampkin who will undoubtedly post you up and try a multitude of spin moves. From inside to out, this team is solid and there’s a good reason they’re 25th in KenPom’s rankings.

Boise on the other hand, bowed out in the first round of the MWC tournament. But they got in based on their resume, making this the 5th appearance under Head Coach Leon Rice. However, they’ve yet to win one NCAA tourney game in his tenure. This one will be even more special, as his son G Max Rice is a senior and playing his last season. The Broncos play at a slow pace and have a solid defense, allowing opponents to shoot just 30% from 3, good for 23rd best in the country. They also have size and a big front line that causes issues at the rim.

I’m going with the unconventional pick here and the Boise State Broncos. I saw Oregon dominate the paint against Colorado. Lampkin is big but has just 5 blocks all season. Boise is a good rebounding team and doesn’t give up extra shots. Additionally, the Buffs haven’t beat anyone in KenPom’s top 42 all year. The Broncos have 6 wins against such competition. I’ll ride with the Mountain West once again as they are out to prove to everyone how good of a conference they truly were this year. And plus, I like the dad and son combination going for one last win (or maybe more).

PICK: Boise St +3.5 over Colorado (NORMAL BET / 1.0 units)

TUESDAY MARCH 19th – DAYTON, OH (2 Games)

Game 1: #16 Wagner Seahawks at #16 Howard Bison (West Region 640pm)

Who doesn’t love a good battle between one-word universities. Simple yet profound and proud, both Wagner and Howard had to pull off several upsets to win their respective conferences. For Howard, they started the year 5-11 but found something midseason to finish strong with 13 wins in their last 18 games. Per KenPom.com, they struggle protecting the ball ranking 354th out of 362 teams in TO%. But they crash the boards well (39th in OReb% in NCAA) and get to the line often with the 11th highest FT rate in the country. The other thing they do well is shoot the three, led by G Marcus Dockery who shot over 41% from behind the arc in over 200 attempts.

Wagner on the other hand got to Dayton with bully ball. In the three games in the NEC tournament, they held their opponents to a combined 35.3% shooting and outrebounded them 116 to 95 (average of +7 per game). It’s been their recipe for success all year as they allow just over 62 points per game which is top 10 in the nation. The problem is, they are one of the worst shooting teams in the country ranking 353rd in effective FG%. They also struggle at the FT line shooting just 70% (249th).

Wagner wants to win with defense and playing at a slow pace. In the end, I think Howard will have enough offense to get their first ever NCAA Tournament win. That will send them to Charlotte to face #1 UNC on Thursday.

PICK: Howard -3 over Wagner (FUN BET / 0.5 units)

RESULT: LOSS / -0.55 units

Game 2: #10 Colorado State Rams at #10 Virginia Cavaliers (Midwest Region 910pm)

The Mountain West Conference landed 6 teams in the NCAA tournament. And tonight, we’ll get to see one of those teams play and gauge how good their conference really was. For one, I love the top teams in the MWC and think several can make it to the second weekend. I do question the bottom half, including the Rams, and how they compare to other teams that were left out.

But simply put, this is a great matchup for Colorado State. The Virginia Cavaliers come into this game with one of the worst offenses in college basketball. As typical of a Cavs team, they play excellent defense and try to bleed the clock on offense to minimize possessions. But the thing that stands out to me is that they have been bludgeoned by good teams, losing games to Duke by 25, Wisconsin by 24 and UNC by 10 (Va Tech beat them by 34 but they’re not a “good” team). The only teams they beat in KenPom’s top 35 were Florida, Clemson and Wake. And that was by a combined 6 points. Overall, Virginia is just 2-7 in Quad 1 games.

On the other hand, Colorado State has 6 wins against teams in the tournament this year. They are 6-7 in Quad 1 games in NCAA this season. Their pace is solid and they shoot the ball very efficiently (32nd in Effective FG%). CSU also has a significant advantage at the FT line, as they shoot 75.4% from the charity stripe (54th in NCAA) and Virginia shoots just 63.7% (355th). That’s important in these closely contested games.

We’ve seen some money movement as this line opened at -1.5 and is now at -2.5. My simple model says this should be at -3.5. So, I’ll lean on the above metrics and take the more well-rounded in the Rams to pull this one off. If so, they will head over to Charlotte to matchup with #7 seeded Texas in a very winnable game.

PICK: Colorado St -2.5 over Virginia (NORMAL BET / 1.0 units)

RESULT: WIN / +1.0 Units

TOURNAMENT BETTING RECORD: 1-1 / +0.45 units

To be posted by 10am Wednesday March 19th