Dave Gloeckner 
Thursday brought us some memorable moments. Seeing Oakland pull off the massive upset of Kentucky was the icing on the cake. But we saw crazy comebacks (Dayton) and great singular performances (Cuisinard of Oregon). That’s March Madness for you! Overall, I went 7-9 yesterday but was 1-3 in my best bets. Nevada’s collapse really cost us a lot as they allowed Dayton to end the game on a 24-4 run.
We’re going to do something cool for this tournament, and that’s pick all 67 games against the spread. Realistically, that’s a bad idea for your bank roll. And I will not bet every game nor advise you do unless you manage the unit size you bet. But for the readers out there, I want to include info on each game in case you’re dialed in on a contest that doesn’t fall on my radar. So we’ll make three groups, BEST BETS (1.5 to 2 units), NORMAL BETS (1 unit), and FUN BETS (0 to 0.5 units). Now, let’s lace up the old Converse sneaks, make a few odd stretching movements, and hit the hardwood for what is going to be an awesome two weeks of betting. Just don’t pull any muscles in the process.
Feel free to read my quick breakdown of each game. But in short, here are my plays for today (Day Games Posted, Night Games coming by 12pm):
BEST BETS (1.5 to 2.0 units):
- New Mexico -2 over Clemson (Loss)
- Florida -1.5 over Colorado (Loss)
- San Diego State -6.5 over UAB (Loss)
- Texas A&M +1 over Nebraska (Win)
- TCU -3 over Utah State (Loss)
- James Madison +5.5 over Wisconsin (Win)
NORMAL BETS (1.0 units):
- FAU -3 over Northwestern (Loss)
- Duke -12.5 over Vermont (Win)
- Charleston +10.5 over Alabama (Loss)
- St Mary’s -5 over Grand Canyon (Loss)
FUN BETS (0.5 units):
- UCONN -26.5 over Stetson (Win)
- Grambling +28.5 over Purdue (Win)
- Yale +12.5 over Auburn (Win)
- WKU +14.5 over Marquette (Loss)
- Baylor -13.5 over Colgate (Win)
- Longwood +23.5 over Houston (Loss)
2024 Tourney Record: 8-12 / -5.3 units
FRIDAY MARCH 22nd – ROUND 1
Game 21: #9 Northwestern Wildcats vs #8 Florida Atlantic Owls (1215pm)
FAU was one of the stories of the tournament last year as they reached the Final Four for the first time in school history. They came into this season with high expectations, as most of the team that made that run returned this year. However, it’s been an up and down season, to the point where they were on the bubble come Sunday. But they made it, and now have a chance to put together another memorable run. They take on Northwestern who had a solid season ending up fourth in the Big 10. They played Purdue to OT twice, winning once. And they also beat Big 10 champs, Illinois. However, I think the athleticism of the Owls will give the Wildcats trouble. And the experience from last year’s run will help fuel them to a victory today.
PICK: FAU -3 over Northwestern (NORMAL BET / 1.0 units)
Game 22: #14 Colgate vs #3 Baylor Bears (1240pm)
Baylor is one of my sleeper’s to make it to the Final Four. They are battled tested, playing in the Big 12 against several top teams. And they have quality guard play in RayJ Dennis and Ja’Kobe Walter. Their head coach, Scott Drew, has a national title and is one of the best coaches in the country. They lost to a buzzsaw in the Big 12 tourney as Iowa State mowed through everyone including Houston. So they may be overlooked slightly but I expect them to come out and play hard basketball from the tip tomorrow. Colgate, winners of the Patriot League, have their hands full. They haven’t beat a team inside KenPom’s top 100 all year. And the two top 20 teams they played, Arizona and Illinois, beat them by an average of 22 points. Expect similar tomorrow with Baylor.
PICK: Baylor -13.5 over Colgate (NORMAL BET / 1.0 units)
Game 23: #12 UAB vs #5 San Diego State (130pm)
The UAB Blazers caught fire in the American Athletic Conference tournament and won four games in four days to capture a berth in the NCAA Tournament. UAB doesn’t shoot the ball well but they crash the boards and grab a high percentage of offensive rebounds. That’s a good recipe for success against teams in the AAC. But not necessarily against a physical team like San Diego State. The Aztecs are good all around but especially on defense where they rank 9th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Like FAU, they also made an unexpected run to the Final Four reaching the Championship Game. They brought back the core from that team and are ready to make another deep run.
PICK: San Diego State -6.5 vs UAB (BEST BET / 1.5 units)
Game 24: #15 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs #2 Marquette Golden Eagles (200pm)
A lot of Marquette’s chances to make a deep run in this tournament hinge on the health of G Tyler Kolek. There are signs pointing to his return as he’s been practicing with the team this week. He’s such a key to their offense as he leads the nation with 7.6 assists per game. But Golden Eagles also have a volume scorer in Kam Jones who averages close to 17 ppg. Their matchup against WKU is intriguing because of the anticipated pace. The Hilltoppers lead the nation in adjusted pace and Marquette is not far behind with the 9th quickest possessions. Western Kentucky had a four-game losing streak coming into the conference tournament but snapped that with three straight wins. However, they haven’t played a team in the top 100 all year and Marquette will be a big adjustment. Because of their pace, and Marquette’s potential for being rusty if Kolek is back, I think WKU can cover this big number.
PICK: WKU +14.5 over Marquette (FUN BET / 0.5 units)
Game 25: #16 Stetson vs #1 UCONN Huskies (245pm)
UConn clearly the best team in the country and there is nothing they do badly. In their 3 losses, all on the road, the winning team shot 50% or better including a combined 52% from three. So to beat the Huskies, you’ll need to have one of your best shooting days and hope they are off. Which isn’t a formula most teams can put together. Which brings us to Stetson who does shoot the ball well ranking 37th nationally in 3-point percentage. But they are terrible on defense ranking in the bottom 5% in most major categories including 343rd in defensive adjusted efficiency. They rely heavily on their starters and have a thin bench which could cause issues versus a UCONN team that can get you in foul trouble. Also, of the Huskies 33 wins, 15 have come by 20+. They know how to blow people out.
PICK: UCONN -25.5 over Stetson (FUN BET / 0.5 units)
Game 26: #11 New Mexico vs #6 Clemson Tigers (310pm)
Let’s stick with the theme of yesterday and back another double digit seed early here on Friday. New Mexico won the Mountain West in impressive fashion taking down favorite San Diego State. For those of you who haven’t seen the Lobos play, they have some familiar names in House and Mashburn. Except it’s the offspring of stars from yesterday; Eddie House and Jamal Mashburn. But make no mistake, both can play and give coach Richard Pitino the established guard play needed to win games in March. The crazy part of New Mexico’s run is that they were just 4-6 in their last 10 games before entering the MWC tourney. However, their opponent, the Clemson Tigers also fared similarly as they lost 3 of 4 to end the season including an embarrassing loss to BC in the ACC tourney. For this pick, I’m backing the hotter team with as Clemson is just 10-10 since the start of 2024 while New Mexico is 14-8 including a current 4-game win streak.
PICK: New Mexico -2 over Clemson (BEST BET / 2.0 units)
Game 27: #13 Yale Bulldogs vs #4 Auburn Tigers (400pm)
Prior Ivy League winners, when put in the right matchups, have pulled off major upsets in the NCAA Tournament. And Yale does fit that profile as they play at one of the slowest paces in the NCAA. But Auburn will try to get them out of that and create defensive pressure. The Tigers are in the top 25% of the country in steal percentage and 2nd overall in block rate. While Yale has size to matchup with an elite NCAA team, they will struggle against Bruce Pearl’s defensive tenacity. However, styles make fights and I think the slower pace of play will keep Yale in this one long enough to get us a cover.
PICK: Yale +12.5 over Auburn (FUN BET / 0.5 units)
Game 28: #10 Colorado Buffalos vs #7 Florida Gators (430pm)
This is one of the harder games for me to handicap because I truly like both teams. Colorado came up big late to knock off Boise on Wednesday in Dayton. But they were fortunate as well since the Broncos shot 2 for 18 from three. Colorado got outrebounded by a tally of 41-31. And that’s why I’m backing Florida here as they crash the boards better than most. They are 7th in offensive rebounding rate and are tied for 1st in the nation in rebounds per game. They also defend the three well, which is where Colorado wants to beat you. Even without their injured C in Micah Handlogten, the Gators have enough size and depth to give the Buffalos fits.
PICK: Florida -1.5 over Colorado (BEST BET / 2.0 units)
Game 29: #9 Texas A&M Aggies vs #8 Nebraska Cornhuskers (630pm)
The Aggies play an ugly brand of basketball. They don’t shoot very well, and they play at a slow adjust tempo (270th). But they rebound the heck out of the ball and force turnovers. Reminiscent of Bob Huggins teams which normally are difficult to matchup up with come March if you haven’t seen that style. And that’s what I’m banking on, literally, today in their matchup with Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are not good on the boards and have a propensity to turn the ball over. This looks like a stylistic issue for Nebraska and for that reason I’ll back the dogs here.
PICK: Texas A&M +1.5 over Nebraska (BEST BET / 2.0 units)
Game 30: #13 Vermont vs #4 Duke Blue Devils (650pm)
This isn’t your typical Vermont team though they have put up wins like their past teams. In fact, Vermont is 19-1 in it’s last 20 games coming into their matchup with Duke. But they do it with defense as they don’t shoot the three particularly well and they don’t have any standout scorers. Duke on the other hand, is prolific offensively and can push the pace. While the Blue Devils are often an upset candidate, I like them to take care of Vermont handily today.
PICK: Duke -12.5 over Vermont (NORMAL BET / 1.0 units)
Game 31: #16 Grambling vs #1 Purdue Boilermakers (725pm)
Will Purdue lose to another double digit seed? Or will they follow in Virginia’s footsteps and win the National Championship the year after losing to a #16 seed? I think they’ll fare better this year but their Achilles heel is turnovers. In their four losses, they were a combined -38 in TO differential. That includes a 16-5 mark last Saturda5 in the Big 10 Semifinal game. Purdue will outrebound you and they won’t foul much. You have to press their ball handlers otherwise it’s ballgame if they get it to Edey. Grambling will pester you, ranking 78th nationally in Steals and 50th in TO%. I say they do enough to keep this within the number.
PICK: Grambling +28.5 over Purdue (NORMAL BET / 1.0 units)
Game 32: #13 Charleston vs #4 Alabama Crimson Tide (735pm)
Alabama resembles Kentucky. Prolific offense that can beat you from everywhere. But they also lack the defensive prowess the Cats did and that can be problematic in March. Charleston has had better teams but they are still a team to be reckoned with this year. The Cougars come at you in waves as they have 9 players averaging at least 10 minutes a game. They’ve won 12 straight coming into today’s matchup and if they can stay close early will build their confidence to pull off the upset.
PICK: Charleston +10.5 over Alabama (NORMAL BET / 1.0 units)
TOURNAMENT BETTING RECORD: 1-3 / -1.2 units
To be posted by 10am Wednesday March 19th
