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NBA

NBA DFS: Core Four 8.25

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

NBA DFS: Core Four 8.25

With Brian back killing it on Picks and Pivots, I’ll be shifting to a new piece. We were using a “Games to Target” theory, but as the field gets smaller that doesn’t make as much sense. Instead, we’ll focus on a Core Four for the slate moving forward. There’s only two games tonight so the NBA DFS: Core Four 8.25 and other parts of the lineup are going to be chalky. That’s not exactly a bad thing with some good chalk to eat in the first player.

Luka Doncic

This is a fun and respectful point of contention with myself and Brian today. Brian (very justifiably) is on the Luka fade train tonight and that train of thought makes absolute sense. Especially on a two game slate, you have to take some chances to get to the top of the board. However, the only way I’m fading Luka is if I’m playing at least 20 lineups and then just one or two without him.

Luka is coming off an all-time playoff performance and may not have Kristaps Porzingis. Even if KP plays, A. he almost can’t be 100% on that knee and B. Luka has ceiling with KP. Just look at Game 1 when Luka went for 65 DK. Game’s 2 and 3 saw him under 30 minutes because of foul trouble and the original ankle injury. Porzingis will be under-owned tonight but I’m eating the Luka chalk and trying to find differences elsewhere. He has the highest ceiling, although the next two players are right behind him.

Kawhi Leonard

I’m not sure if anyone mentioned this to Kawhi, but he is allowed to guard Luka at the end of the game. Just food for thought for one of the best defensive players in the league. Anyways, the second true stud comes down to Kawhi or Donovan Mitchell. I was eyeing Mitchell but Nick brought up a great point on the live stream – what happens if Mitchell doesn’t score 50 real points? You’re very likely to be disappointed, so we’re riding with Kawhi.

He’s much more stable and I have to think we get a very motivated Kawhi tonight. That loss was embarrassing after choking a 20 point lead away and Luka was hitting shots over Reggie Jackson. The floor for Kawhi so far has been 53 DK and he’s covering for Paul George. He’s missed a double-double by one rebound the last two games and he’s on court for 40 minutes a night. I’m on board.

Jamal Murray

We’ve been very expensive so far and Murray isn’t cheap by any stretch, but he’s not expensive enough. For Denver to stave off elimination tonight, Murray is going to have to go nuts. He is going to be scoring dependent and the price can get scary. However, the ceiling is absolutely there with a 59 DK game and 82 last time out. The common thread in those two games? Denver was actually competitive in those two.

I don’t believe the Nuggets roll over and die. Furthermore, there’s got to be a game where the Jazz don’t shoot the lights out of the gym. They’ve been flirting with 60% from the floor for much of the series. Murray likely needs to put up 30 real points tonight and play almost the entire game. He was on the court for 43 minutes last time and I’d fully expect that again.

Ivica Zubac/Boban Marjanovic

We need someone cheap for NBA DFS: Core Four 8.25. With the other three in this lineup, spending on Nikola Jokic or Rudy Gobert simply isn’t possible. Instead, let’s use this spot to save some money and get the ability to wait on Porzingis news.

I’m slotting Zubac at the C slot and that may be different right off the hop. If KP does sit, you can swap to Boban and have an upgrade in mind elsewhere. My belief is that many spend up and pair Joker or Gobert with Luka. That leaves Murray or Kawhi “lower” than maybe some think. Instead, Zubac plays about 20-24 minutes a night and Montrezl Harrell has been abysmal so far this series. To wit, here’s his plus/minus on the floor so far.

Game 1 -7

Game 2 -15

Game 3 -5

Game 4 -19

For those scoring at home, the Clippers have been out-scored by 46 points when Trez is on the floor. FORTY. SIX. POINTS. By contrast, Zubac is a +35 in four games. They couldn’t be on more opposite ends of the spectrum and I think we’ve established LA can’t treat this series with anything but seriousness. Zubac is the better player right now. He’s not likely to put up 40 DK, but a rock solid 20-24 DK will do just fine in this slot.

Players to Consider

With three high-priced players, we do need some fillers. I will have two lineups tonight, one with this core and one that works with a Luka/Lou Williams/Kawhi foundation. Some players that I’m looking at to accomplish that are –

Seth Curry, Trey Burke, Monte Morris, Royce O’Neal, Reggie Jackson, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jordan Clarkson, Maxi Kleber and Landry Shamet.

Stick around in Discord today and best of luck on this slate!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

5 years ago 0 comments

NBA

8.25 NBA DFS Preview Podcast

Michael Rasile 5 years ago

written by Michael Rasile

8.25 NBA DFS Preview Podcast

On the 8.25 NBA DFS Preview, Ghost and Michael check out the 8.25 NBA slate and give their favorite plays for the night!

Listen to the show below and make sure to subscribe on your podcast app of choice!

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5 years ago 0 comments

Cash Game NBA Breakdown For 8.24

TimmySigs 5 years ago

written by TimmySigs

Good morning ladies and gentlemen! I hope you all are ready to get your lineups put in today. I know everyone loves the big win but bankroll management and cash contests are important to sustain yourself between these hits. I already covered this same group of matchups the other day so I will have a number of the same plays but there will be a few adjustments to make it a bit better. So with no further delay lets get into my Cash Game NBA Breakdown For 8.24.

Very important note for those who don’t know: I typically do not put the high priced guys in my articles. Guys like AD, Lebron, Harden, and Lillard are a matter of preference, but I’ll provide my thoughts on each of them in discord if you want to know so feel free to hop on and ask me or the other guys.

Cash Game NBA Breakdown 8.24, Guards:

Chris Paul, Thunder, 8.0K(DK)/7.9K(FD):

I covered this the other day and seeing as how the price has not changed yet I will go back to it. Houston gives up points like no other team in the NBA and Chris Paul has a tendency to carry a chip on his shoulder when he feels like someone disrespects him. I am sure he is still mad about being traded and would want nothing better than to knock his old team out.

Malcolm Brogdon, Pacers, 7.5K(DK)/7.6K(FD):

If he keeps playing the way he has been he will be over eight thousand in the next round if they make it. It is clear that Oladipo is not going to take the reigns from Brogdon, at least this year. He is seeing right around 40 minutes a game and dishing out over 10 assists per on average to go with his point production so you will get the double-double bonus on DraftKings as an added benefit.

Eric Gordon, Rockets, 6.0K(DK)/5.3K(FD):

Boy 2020 really has been a weird one. I never thought I would see the day where I put Eric Gordon in my cash contest write-up yet here we are. Gordon has been exactly what you want from a cash game play since his return to the lineup giving you right at 30 DK points per game and more than 30 minutes per contest. With no Westbrook, I have no reason to expect anything different. Now if you will excuse me I need to go take a shower after writing this.

Cash Game NBA Breakdown 8.24, Forwards:

Jimmy Butler, Heat, 8.1K(DK)/8.5K(FD):

I am still rolling out Butler at over 8k on both sites. He has been consistent, giving us 48DK points in two of the last three. Did I mention he still hates TJ Warren?

Khris Middleton, Bucks, 7.9K(DK)/6.6K(FD):

Steady Eddie right here. I do not play much Middleton when Giannis is on the court but Khris is a consistent performer that will likely not kill your cash lineups. He’s good for right around 38-40 DK points on a normal night with ceiling games that can get over 50 if his shots are falling. I used to be able to count on his minutes being higher in a blowout but the Buck have opted to do these goofy 4-6 minute rotations in the playoffs so be ready to pull your hair out watching guys constantly switch in and out.

Cash Game NBA Breakdown 8.24, Centers:

Brook Lopez, Bucks, 5.2K(DK)/5.6K(FD):

Lopez has been regularly seeing more than 30 minutes a game and while Vucevic is strong under the rim that is not really what Brook’s game is. Sure he will snag a few boards but he takes the bulk of his shots outside of the cylinder and from beyond three-point range largely canceling that out. On DK I can honestly make a case to play both since their playstyles don’t create a negative correlation.

Bam Adebayo, Heat, 7.6K(DK)/8.0K(Power Forward/FD):

I am still willing to roll Bam out there, especially on FanDuel where I can use him at forward. He hasn’t given us a monster total yet but I feel like it’s right around the corner. He has scored more than 40 DK points in two of his last three and the Pacers are still missing their best rim protector.

I’m really digging the overs on a few of these plays on Thrive Fantasy today.

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Thrive Fantasy! Check them out and use promo code “windaily” when you sign up for some extra bonuses. Learn how to play here on our quick over.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports FanDuel & Draftkings Cash Game NBA Breakdown For 8.18. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord Chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

5 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: 8.24

Richard Masana 5 years ago

written by Richard Masana

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: 8.24

Welcome back NBA DFS fans! I’m Adam Strangis and I’ll be covering NBA DFS Picks and Pivots for Brian Tulloch for the next couple weeks. After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: 8.24!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

Even if the Magic are without Aaron Gordon for the fourth consecutive game, pricing is tight on this slate to my eyes. It’s a little difficult to pull off a true game stack and get two studs, but I do see one route that could be a little fun. When we look at the players above $10,000, they all have massive upside. My belief is that Giannis Antetokounmpo will be the most popular. Even in 30 minutes, he seems like a stone cold block for 60 DK. We can look at a game stack from the first game with a late night hammer we all know and love.

Main Stack

I will say that if we combine the Orlando vs Milwaukee stack with the Los Angeles vs Portland stack, there’s no room for James Harden. He’s shot terribly from deep in this series (11-37, 29.7%) and that will level out at some point. That scares me and if you run multiple lineups, you owe it to yourself to get Harden shares. My main focus will be cobbling a stack of the two highest over/unders on the slate.

We’ll start with the Magic, who I’m going to assume will still offer us value. You can certainly turn to Nikola Vucevic who has flashed considerable upside in this series. Mainly, I’m going the cheap route for Orlando. The trio of Gary Clark, James Ennis and DJ Augustin are all under $5,000. They also all have the ability to flirt (or exceed) 30 DK. Augustin in particular is attractive with two of three games over 35 DK. DJA has clearly shown a higher ceiling than Markelle Fultz. Ennis and Clark only need to combine for 51 DK to hit 6x at their combine price tag. That’s something I feel very comfortable with.

Is there really anything left I can say about Giannis? He’s played 34, 32 and 31 minutes this series and produced 65, 59 and 66 DK points. If this game stays close and he gets to 35-38 minutes, 75-80 DK is within reach. The floor here is simply absurd.

Secondary “Stack”

So we have four players locked in and $6,450 left to spend. That’s not too shabby considering we have Giannis so let’s get some late night action here. It’s not a traditional game stack because we don’t have salary. However, the duo of LeBron and Carmelo Anthony fit really nicely with the main stack. I know that Anthony really bit us in Game 2, but he responded with an excellent Game 3.

The Blazers look like they’re starting to gas just a bit, especially big man Jusuf Nurkic. Anthony has two games above 36 DK in this series and his price isn’t high enough. LeBron has put up 73 and 68 in the competitive games and fell two dimes short of matching triple-doubles. We’ve seen it for years – LeBron is different when it’s playoffs. He’s full go right now vs a team that hasn’t played defense in the bubble (third-worst in the seeding games).

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap-Up

With the six pieces in place, it only gives us $4,600 for two spots. The last two spots I’m considering are – Jae Crowder, Justin Holiday/Aaron Holiday (prefer the starter), Pat Connaughton, Austin Rivers and Danuel House.

Of course, you can play around with these stacks to include Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton, Evan Fournier, Terrence Ross, Anthony Davis, CJ McCollum, Damian Lillard and others. This is just the baseline for my method in GPP’s tonight since the first and the last game offer us some serious upside.

Let’s jump into Discord and talk some hoops my friends. Time to make money!

5 years ago 0 comments

NBA Daily Fantasy Sports

Isaiahs Protocol for the NBA DFS slate on 8/23

labatts2225@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by labatts2225@gmail.com

Isaiah’s Protocol for the NBA DFS slate is built around DraftKings pricing, but is good across the industry with some slight adjustments to salaries on the various sites. I’d like to point out that the players I’m recommending are best used together for cash game purposes. These players are also decent considerations for guaranteed prize pool (GPP) tournaments when used individually with other contrarian type players.

We’re looking at an exciting 4 game NBA DFS slate that’s packed with intriguing players. Ironically, all these teams have been playing every other day, so we have some solid data to look at. Luka Doncic suffered an ugly ankle injury his last time out and his status remains questionable today. This news has a tremendous impact on the entire NBA DFS slate and should be monitored closely. I like to advise all my readers to join the staff at WinDaily in our Discord chat rooms as we discuss some of the important news leading up to tip off, and break down some key players even further.

Strategy

It’s extremely important to understand that this is a cash game article. My focus is to find 8 players on the DraftKings NBA DFS slate that will get the recommended 300 point total that should be enough to finish in the top 50% of double up, 50/50, or head to head games. For cash games, ownership is far less important as we’re simply looking to find a roster that will finish in the top 50% of the contest, and win some cash. Proper bankroll management is important for limiting the number of deposits you make with your own money. Doubling a wager in cash games is an excellent way to counter risks you may take playing GPP contests. It’s always better to take shots at bigger GPP contests with the “house” money you’ve already won playing cash games.

DraftKings gives us a $50,000 salary cap to roster 8 players. This gives us an average of $6,250 per player. Getting to the recommended 300 point plateau, we need all 8 players to average 37.5 DraftKings fantasy points (DKFPTS). While it may sound challenging, keeping this elementary math in the back of your head while building your roster is important. Limit your risk as much as possible and find 8 players that fit this criteria. Lets take a look at this NBA DFS slate.

Scenario

Both The Toronto Raptors (-13.5), and The Boston Celtics (-7.5) are up 3 games to none, and could wrap up the series today. Unlike the other games in these series, this is important to make a note on because if they get substantial leads today, they may pull some of the starters to rest them before the next round of games. The Raptors especially, having the second highest implied team total (ITT) on the slate (115.5), make their players high risk/reward candidates.

With the Luka Doncic news pending, there should be some value opening up on this NBA DFS slate. Patrick Beverly (Doubtful, calf injury) is another piece of news, that I may target on both sides of the ball.

Cash Game Core (Spend Up)

Pascal Siakam ($7900) Pascal fits the mold of high risk/reward on this NBA DFS slate. He’s averaging 43 DKFPTS against the Nets in 6 games this season. Siakam is a threat to reach the double/double bonus every time he’s on the floor. He posted a 26/8/5 stat line for 45 DKFPTS last game. After starting out cold in the bubble, his game seems to rounding into form. Pascal scores 1.16 fantasy points (FP) per minute, and has a decent usage rate of 27.5%. He’s matched up against a Brooklyn squad that ranks 26^th against power forwards. The Nets look to have all but given up on the season. $7900 is just too cheap for the upside here. I’m taking the risk that he gets at least 30 minutes, and 40 DKFPTS, for 5X value.

Fred VanVleet ($7700) VanVleet is another guy who has been on point in the bubble. I love targeting Raptors against this banged up, defensively deficient Brooklyn squad. Fred’s salary still doesn’t seem to be increasing enough, as his 6 game average verse the Nets dictates 46 DKFPTS this season. That alone would give him 6X value. I think he’s playing better than those numbers represent. I see VanVleet as the forth starter to leave the court in a blowout scenario, after Gasol, Lowry, and Siakam.

Others I’m considering in the upper tier on this NBA DFS slate include Paul George ($8000), Kyle Lowry ($8100), and Rudy Gobert ($7800).

Cash Game Core (Average)

Jamal Murray ($6800) Jamal’s minutes were down the last 2 games verse Utah after getting blown out. His salary and ownership dropped as well! Murray is still averaging 42 DKFPTS in just over 35 minutes/gm. verse the Jazz in 5 games this season. I expect Murray and the Nuggets to step up in a big way today after watching Donovan Mitchell attempt to flush their season down the toilet. Anything close to his season averages gets us 6X value. He’s a key piece (with upside) in our cash game lineups.

Serge Ibaka ($5800) Ibaka seems to be fully recovered from a knee issue that sidelined him earlier this month. Feasting on this Brooklyn front court seems like easy pickings on this NBA DFS slate, especially with a Raptor bench player that may see his full allotment of minutes. Anything around this 36 DKFPTS average against the Nets this season, gives us 6X value. Using his salary at center gives us a lot of extra salary to work with. It may also be a contrarian move with a lot of people paying up for a stud at the center position.

Mike Conley ($6300) Conley picked up right where he left off, after leaving the bubble for the birth of his baby. He didn’t miss a beat, shooting 9-13 from the field, draining 7 of 8 from behind the arc, and adding 27 points. Utah’s 37 point thrashing of Denver on Thursday gave him 38.5 DKFPTS on his $5900 salary. That equated to just under 7X value. He got a nice bump in salary but I still think he’s a viable option in cash games.

Risk Option

I really like the combination of Jaylen Brown ($7300) and Kemba Walker ($6900) in cash game lineups at these salaries. Boston will be without the services of Gordon Hayward (ankle) for a while. I expect Marcus Smart to be deployed as a defensive specialist to slow down Tobias Harris and annoy Embiid as much as possible. The Celtics will be looking to lean on the other starters to step up their offense. I’m not 100% sold on rostering Celtics knowing they may get pulled for rest if Philadelphia doesn’t show up for this do-or-die game. Their respective salaries are enticing for cash game purposes on this NBA DFS slate.

Cash Game Core (Value)

As I mentioned earlier, The Luka Doncic/Patrick Beverly news in that DAL/LAC game should open up some nice value on this NBA DFS slate. If Doncic can’t play, look for Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5700), Seth Curry ($4600), Trey Burke ($4100), and even Delon Wright ($3500) to step up their games offensively. On the flip side, if defensive specialist Patrick Beverly can’t go, I expect Landry Shamet ($3400) to get the start at PG, and both Lou Williams ($5900), and Reggie Jackson ($3500) to see bumps in production.

Shake Milton ($4400) Milton is looking to plant an anchor as a future piece of the Sixer squad. His minutes and productivity have been steadily increasing, and I expect him to see solid minutes today for a Philadelphia team desperate to find offense anywhere they can.

Some others I’m considering on this NBA DFS slate are Marcus Morris Sr. ($5400), Jordan Clarkson ($5300), Ivica Zubac ($4400), Monte Morris ($3900)

I highly encourage all readers to join myself, and the rest of the WinDaily family in the Discord chat rooms as we break down and discuss our favorite plays further. Thank you for reading my content and feel free to leave a comment, or hit me up on Twitter @IsaiahsProtocol.

Good Luck And Have Fun

5 years ago 0 comments

NBA

NBA GPP Picks 8/23

Mitchell Thoennes 5 years ago

written by Mitchell Thoennes

NBA GPP Picks 8/23

In this article I will be breaking down NBA GPP Picks 8/23. I will inform you with at least one player per position that strikes my interest and If I am interested in a player on only one site, I will be site specific. I will be using DraftKings pricing for this article.

We have some potential elimination games today as the 76ers and Nets can potentially be sent home. The Clippers vs. Mavericks game is projected to be a total of 231 according to Vegas. This is interesting as Luka Doncic is a game-time decision. I think he is going to sit, he looked to be in significant pain as he tried to play on his injured ankle. Regardless what I think this is significant news we need to watch. Keep up with this news over in the Discord Chat rooms as myself and the rest of the WinDaily staff help you stay updated on the correct plays. Make sure to keep an eye on the Doncic news,

Trey Burke – ($4,100)

He has overtaken the backup point guard role from Delon Wright it appears. Without Luka on the floor, Burke see’s a 22% usage rate and is scoring 40 fantasy points per 36 minutes. He has averaged 17 minutes off the bench in the first two games. He’s scored 28 and 17 fantasy points in those games. If Luka sits and Burke gets the minutes, he could have a massive game at a cheaper price tag.

Fred VanVleet – ($7,700)

This man has been lights out during this series against the Nets, as he hasn’t failed to hit 40 fantasy points these playoffs. VanVleet has played 43 and 39 minutes in the games that have been close this series. He has also interestingly shot at least 10 three pointers in each game this series. VanVleet has crushed this series I don’t expect that to change here, unless a blowout occurs.

Kawhi Leonard – ($9,800)

Looking like a well oiled machine, Leonard has been scorching against Dallas in this first round battle. Averaging just over 39 minutes per game and has scored at least 50 fantasy points in those three games. He has averaged above 30 real points and double-digit rebounds leading to his success. Leading this team down the stretch and shooting more than 20 times in each game should allow Leonard to exceed his value again.

Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot – ($5,000)

If we run the numbers with the plethora of Nets players off the floor, Cabarrot has seen a usage bump of 3.7% and scoring 7.92 more fantasy points per 36 minutes. He is averaging 37.88 fantasy points per 36 minutes and he’s seen more than 33 minutes in each game this series. Toronto has given up the fourth most fantasy points to power forwards in the bubble. With all these Nets out Cabarrot will see an uptick in shot attempts and that will allow him to hit value.

Kristaps Porzingis – ($9,200)

If Luka is officially out, Porzingis should have a massive game. Without Luka, Porzingis has a usage of 32.6% an increase of 5%. He is averaging 54.8 fantasy points per 36 minutes and uptick of 5.65 fantasy points per 36 minutes. Porzingis is going to take as many shots as he is comfortable with, he has massive upside in this spot. He will likely be high owned though if Luka is in fact ruled out.

We will wrap up the weekend with this four game NBA GPP picks 8/23 playoff slate. The game to watch for is the Dallas game as it is the highest projected total and we have major injury news to watch as mentioned Luka is a game-time decision. You want to make sure you get in the Discord Chat rooms as this is slate altering news that will happen after the initial lineup lock. Enjoy this Sunday of sports and thanks for reading this article. Best of luck!

5 years ago 0 comments

NBA

NBA GPP Picks 8/22

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA GPP Picks 8/22

In this article I will be breaking down NBA GPP Picks 8/22. I will inform you with at least one player per position that strikes my interest and If I am interested in a player on only one site, I will be site specific. I will be using DraftKings pricing for this article.

Again, we have another four game NBA slate to breakdown, the second set of game threes. There is not much for new injury news as we will have to monitor Aaron Gordon for another game as he remains questionable. Three of these games have a total around 225, with the Miami game being the lowest at 214. Check out the Discord chat rooms as myself and the rest of the WinDaily staff jump in there and keep you updated on injury news and our top plays. Let’s dive into another NBA bubble playoff slate!

NBA GPP Picks 8/22

DJ Augustin – ($4,200)

Michael Carter-Williams is doubtful to play again which should lead to Augustin and Fultz to split point guard minutes in half. Last time out Augustin nearly hit value without even hitting a shot from the field. The two prior games though in just 23 minutes, Augustin scored 35 fantasy points. This matchup is fantastic as Milwaukee has given up the most fantasy points to point guards in the bubble.

Eric Gordon – ($5,100)

He has played 30 minutes in both playoff games so far and had 17 and 20 field goals attempts in those games. Gordon hasn’t had his shot falling but has still managed to score 30 fantasy points in both playoff games thus far. This is an amazing price for a player with Gordon’s usage and shot attempts, as Westbrook remains sidelined.

Carmelo Anthony – ($5,600)

Portland was spanked in its previous outing and most players failed to hit value. Carmelo only scored 2 fantasy points which will scare most people away from him. In the bubble he has played at least 30 minutes in every game except the previous blowout against the Lakers. Carmelo has attempted double digit field goals in eight out of the last ten games. Carmelo has shot 23% from the field in the first two games and in game one he scored 35 fantasy points, if he shoots any better than 23% he could have an awesome game.

Anthony Davis – ($10,200)

Davis has more than 20 shot attempts in both games against Portland. He only played 29 minutes in the previous game and scored 55 fantasy points. If he would’ve played 39 minutes as he did in game one, he could’ve easily gone for 70 fantasy points. Portland has given up the fifth most fantasy points to power forwards in the bubble. Davis has played Portland five time this season and is averaging 58 fantasy points per game so hitting value shouldn’t be a problem.

Bam Adebayo – ($7,300)

As a heavily owned pick in his last game, Adebayo ruined many lineups failing to score 30 fantasy points. He should be able to rebound from that performance as Indiana has given up the second most fantasy points to centers during the time in the bubble. We will also receive Adebayo at a fair discounted price as he was recently around 8k and has been as high as 9k this season. Playing Indiana this season Adebayo is averaging 37.5 fantasy points in five games, proving he’s a fair price in this matchup.

That will wrap up NBA GPP Picks 8/22 four game playoff slate. Aaron Gordon is our injury news we need to watch but thankfully he is in the opening game. We should hear about his status closer to game time, as Gary Clark would then likely get the start and be a salary saver at $3,600. In order to keep up with this news and starting lineups, join myself and the rest of the WinDaily staff in the Discord chat rooms as we breakdown all our favorite plays. I took down a GPP last evening profiting over four thousand dollars, best of luck and I hope you do the same tonight!

5 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Ghost’s DFS Gems 08/22

DFSGhost 5 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Cash game scores have been surprisingly low throughout NBA playoff slates, so I hope everyone has been taking advantage. There have been plenty of players that garnered high ownership on any given slate that simply flopped, so today we will continue building around our solid core while considering factors listed at the end of this article. While these plays are often my core for cash games, I typically use them in tournaments as well and surround them with low owned plays, especially on DK where players are multi-position eligible. Let’s get to it:

The Lock: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000 DK / $11,300 FD)

The Greek Freak is my lock for today. Posterizing the Magic on the glass in the series, Antetokounmpo is averaging 18.5 rebounds to go along with 29.5 points. He single handedly can win this series for the Bucks, and with Khris Middleton shooting an abysmal 5-for-20 from the field in the first two games, this offense is all Giannis now, even more so than it was before. Leading the NA playoffs with a 39.1 usage rate and sporting an absurd 2.11 FPPM, Giannis is the go-to stud today, along with a fellow Rocket listed below.

The Core Gems

James Harden ($11,600 DK / $11,700 FD)

He hasn’t had the 70-80-point performance we always hope for from arguably the most prolific offensive player in the NBA, but when he does, I’ll make sure to have him in my lineup. We’ve said it time and time again that Harden’s usage rate is simply through the roof without Russell Westbrook in the lineup, and while he did manage to put up 50 FP in Game 2, that was with a 5-for-16 shooting performance, including 2-for-11 from deep. If Harden knocks down just a handful of those shots, he’s creeping into the 70 FP range and I think today is the day we see that happen.

Nikola Vucevic ($9,100 DK / $8,500 FD)

While this play is more suitable on FD, Vuc deserves consideration after continuously going underowned on back-to-back slates despite averaging 56 FP per game in the series. Without Aaron Gordon in the lineup in these NBA playoffs, in addition to Jonathan Isaac, Vuc has a 32.1% usage rate, which is higher than the likes of Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Davis, and Nikola Jokic. If the Magic want to steal another game in this series to really make it interesting, they’ll need their big man to continue his impressive run, where he is averaging a 30-point double-double in the series.

The Value Gems

Orlando Magic / Milwaukee Bucks Value

This game has a ton of value to go around on both sides, With Aaron Gordon ruled out once again, we can go back to the well with James Ennis on the wing, in addition to the guard duo of Markelle Fultz and DJ Augustin. On the flipside, these Bucks are all premier targets in the mid-range, including Eric Bledsoe and Pat Connaughton.

Miami Heat Value

The Miami Heat quietly have one of the deepest rotations in these NBA playoffs. Unlike teams such as the Lakers and Raptors, the Heat have the privilege of having elite talents such as Tyler Herro come off the bench, in addition to other value plays here today in the starting lineup, such as Goran Dragic, Jae Crowder, and Duncan Robinson.

Houston Rockets Value

I do prefer the other teams listed above for value; however, these Rockets’ prices have simply not moved. While I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance from Danuel House here today, both Eric Gordon and Jeff Green remain too cheap across both sites to not warrant consideration in our NBA lineups.

Also Consider: JaVale McGee, C ($3,400 DK); you already know how I feel about this one.

A Quick Note on NBA DFS

While there are many different sports and various contests pertaining to DFS along with their respective strategies, we focus on the main approaches to build both reliable cash and GPP lineups for a successful NBA night including pace, the projected over/under, one on one matchups (DVP), a player’s usage rate, and a team’s defensive rating. Make sure to stay active when building NBA lineups – if you cannot be in front of a computer, tablet, or on your phone an hour before lock, do not throw your money away! NBA DFS lineups can change at the blink of an eye and are the most variable compared to any other sport in DFS; players get injured, some sit for load management, and others find themselves on the DNP list for other reasons; any of which can sway your lineup and where to find value. Stay alert on the WinDaily Discord chat to follow along with our updated plays. GOOD LUCK TO ALL!

Follow me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost !

5 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s DFS Gems 08/21

DFSGhost 5 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Day 5 of the NBA playoffs from the bubble in Orlando and we have not been disappointed, NBA fans. We have another two matchups from each respective conference on tap for today’s slate, with the reigning champions looking to take a stranglehold on their series versus Brooklyn who will be without sharpshooter Joe Harris, the 76ers searching for answers without Ben Simmons, another tightly contested battle between Utah and Denver, and the ever-so-controversial Dallas/LA series. Let’s dive into the Gems on this Friday:

The Lock: Nikola Jokic, C ($9,400 FD / $9,300 DK)

The flashy center is my lock for today. With Jamal Murray hoping to find his game that he produced in Game 1, Jokic will remain the focal point on both offense and defense for this Denver Nuggets team looking to take advantage of a questionable Western Conference right now. With the 7th-highest usage rate in the NBA playoffs thus far at 32.9%, a substantial increase from his 26.6% usage rate from the regular season, Jokic seems poised to be a big factor in this game today. He’s a walking triple-double and is the best passing big man in the NBA, has a 3-point shot, and can both attack and guard the rim. His price is attractive on both sites and makes for a premium pay up option without sacrificing the rest of your lineup.

The Core Gems

Fred VanVleet, SG ($7,900 FD / $7,600 DK)

As much as Kyle Lowry is the heart and soul of the Raptors, and Pascal Siakam has taken a big leap this year since the departure of Kawhi Leonard, it’s VanVleet that seems to be the key to their playoff run this year, just as he was a crucial part to their NBA championship win last year. I say it time and time again that Coach Nick Nurse is known for running his starters into the ground if a game is meaningful, and when it’s the playoffs, that ramps up even more: after missing 4 minutes in the first due to foul trouble and offensive struggles, VanVleet only took a single minute off the court for the remainder of the game – a single minute! He dropped an efficient 24/5/10 on 8/22 from the field in 43 minutes of action, and if the Nets can manage to keep this one close, he’ll play another 40 here today. With how loaded SG is on FD, I prefer him on DK, but he makes for an elite target on the former, nonetheless.

Caris LeVert ($8,400 FD / $8,100 DK)

With the Nets looking to stay in the series by stealing a Game 3 here this afternoon, I expect big things from Caris LeVert. He’s been proving to be both the efficient scoring option that he always has been this season, while also putting some impressive passing skills on display; he’s averaging 13 assists per game in the series and has seen north of 35 minutes in each one despite Game 1 being a blowout. The Nets are thin, and if they want to keep up with the reigning NBA champions, they’ll need LeVert in a big way today.

Also Consider: Donovan Mitchell ($8,200 FD only)

The Value Gems

Lou Williams, SG ($5,600 FD / $5,600 DK)

Oh, Sweet Lou, have we missed you. The definition of what a 6-man is supposed to be, Lou Williams was vintage in the Clippers last game by dropping 23/4/7 in 32 minutes and took over as primary ball handler off the bench with Patrick Beverly out. Beverly is yet again doubtful for this one, so while Reggie Jackson will likely get the start again, I don’t foresee LouWill getting any less than 30 minutes here and being heavily involved in the offense.

Brooklyn Nets Value

This one is a little tricky, but if we get it right, it can lead to tournament takedowns. The Nets will be without Joe Harris today, and someone needs to soak up his usage and 37+ minutes per game. I expect the majority of the offense to roll through LeVert, Allen, Temple, and TLC, respectively, but look for some value in guys like Martin, Musa, Kurucs, Johnson, Anderson, and possibly Hall. Keep up in Discord for updates from our team.

A Quick Note on NBA DFS

Follow me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost !

5 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Ghost’s DFS Gems

DFSGhost 5 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Another great day of NBA playoff games yesterday that went back and forth and today should be no different. With the Bucks looking for revenge after their Game 1 loss, the Rockets looking to push past a feisty OKC squad without Russell Westbrook, and the Lakers looking to bounce back after being the second #1 seed to drop Game 1, this slate could go any way. Let’s get to the Gems:

The Lock: James Harden, SG ($11,800 FD / $11,700 DK)

I’m hoping the combination of both a price increase on both sites and the fact that he “only” put up nearly 60 FP in Game 1 keeps Harden’s ownership in check – not necessarily low, but at least in check with many different studs on the NBA slate. Let’s remember that despite his “quiet” 60 FP game, Harden remains without backcourt partner Russell Westbrook in this one and will need to carry a heavy load on offense in order to get his team a victory in Game 2. His 44% usage rate without Westbrook on the court is evidence of that, and with the Rockets complimentary pieces ALL hitting shots last game, they’re not necessarily due for repeat performances – at least not all of them, and that’s where Harden will take over.

The Core Gems

LeBron James, SF ($10,500 FD / $10,900 DK)

Say it with me – Zero Dark 23 Mode activated. LeBron is notoriously famous for entering another timezone when playoffs come around, and he showed just that in Game 1 with a vintage 23/17/16 triple-double en route to 66 FD points and 73 DK points. While this was partly due to Anthony Davis struggling on offense and the majority of his contribution coming from the free throw line, I’m not concerned with either one taking over the game with the other taking a back seat. Both will need to carry the Lakers heavily on every single night if they want to make a deep playoff run and it starts with the best player in the NBA, and one of, if not the best to ever do it.

Jimmy Butler, SG ($8,100 FD / $7,900 DK)

The Miami Heat have a fairly deep rotation heading into this season’s NBA playoffs but Jimmy Buckets remains the man of the hour. Whether he was motivated by his personal feud with TJ Warren or simply just wants to show that the Heat can surprise the world in the East with most favoring the Bucks or Raptors, Butler showed up in Game 1 with an efficient 28/3/4 on the offensive end, and turned in a vintage performance on his own end of the court with 4 steals and 2 blocks. With the majority of the field likely turning to jamming in three studs on this NBA slate given the amount of star power, Butler is the perfect pivot in the mid-range.

Also Consider: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300 FD/DK)

The Value Gems

Orlando Magic Value

This one is a bit contingent on Aaron Gordon sitting out, but even if he does play, there is plenty of value to go around on this Orlando Magic team looking to shock the NBA world by knocking out the favorites to win the championship in the first round. DJ Augustin, Markelle Fultz, James Ennis and company will continue to see a ton of minutes should Gordon be out again, and if he’s in, I still have interest in the guard duo of Augustin/Fultz here.

Houston Rockets Value

If you’re not playing James Harden, you need to surround your NBA lineup with at least one Rockets rotation player. They are almost all priced too low on both sites and can contribute to a team that will continue pushing the pace despite not having Russell Westbrook. Eric Gordon took 17 shots and went 41% from the field and the volume was there for me to begin trusting him, especially at his price, along with Jeff Green supplying 22/6/4 off the bench with both PJ Tucker and Robert Covington assuming their respective defensive roles.

JaVale McGee

This play is primarily for our friends on DK, but it works on FD too if you’re trying to jam in multiple studs. Will McGee ever see 30+ minutes? Absolutely not. Is he a FPPM machine when he’s out there? You better believe it. McGee is again priced a bear $100 above the minimum 3K mark on DK and gave us 18.1 DK points in only 13 minutes last game. Should he creep into the 16-18 minute mark in this one, a 7x return on value is not out of the question.

NBA

NBA DFS: Core Four 8.25

Luka Doncic

Kawhi Leonard

Jamal Murray

Ivica Zubac/Boban Marjanovic

Players to Consider

8.25 NBA DFS Preview Podcast

Cash Game NBA Breakdown 8.24, Guards:

Chris Paul, Thunder, 8.0K(DK)/7.9K(FD):

Malcolm Brogdon, Pacers, 7.5K(DK)/7.6K(FD):

Eric Gordon, Rockets, 6.0K(DK)/5.3K(FD):

Cash Game NBA Breakdown 8.24, Forwards:

Jimmy Butler, Heat, 8.1K(DK)/8.5K(FD):

Khris Middleton, Bucks, 7.9K(DK)/6.6K(FD):

Cash Game NBA Breakdown 8.24, Centers:

Brook Lopez, Bucks, 5.2K(DK)/5.6K(FD):

Bam Adebayo, Heat, 7.6K(DK)/8.0K(Power Forward/FD):

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: 8.24

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

Main Stack

Secondary “Stack”

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap-Up

Strategy

Scenario

Cash Game Core (Spend Up)

Cash Game Core (Average)

Risk Option

Cash Game Core (Value)

Good Luck And Have Fun

NBA GPP Picks 8/23

NBA GPP Picks 8/22

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