Isaiahs Protocol for the NBA DFS slate on 8/23

202

Isaiah’s Protocol for the NBA DFS slate is built around DraftKings pricing, but is good across the industry with some slight adjustments to salaries on the various sites. I’d like to point out that the players I’m recommending are best used together for cash game purposes. These players are also decent considerations for guaranteed prize pool (GPP) tournaments when used individually with other contrarian type players.

We’re looking at an exciting 4 game NBA DFS slate that’s packed with intriguing players. Ironically, all these teams have been playing every other day, so we have some solid data to look at. Luka Doncic suffered an ugly ankle injury his last time out and his status remains questionable today. This news has a tremendous impact on the entire NBA DFS slate and should be monitored closely. I like to advise all my readers to join the staff at WinDaily in our Discord chat rooms as we discuss some of the important news leading up to tip off, and break down some key players even further.

Strategy

It’s extremely important to understand that this is a cash game article. My focus is to find 8 players on the DraftKings NBA DFS slate that will get the recommended 300 point total that should be enough to finish in the top 50% of double up, 50/50, or head to head games. For cash games, ownership is far less important as we’re simply looking to find a roster that will finish in the top 50% of the contest, and win some cash. Proper bankroll management is important for limiting the number of deposits you make with your own money. Doubling a wager in cash games is an excellent way to counter risks you may take playing GPP contests. It’s always better to take shots at bigger GPP contests with the “house” money you’ve already won playing cash games.

DraftKings gives us a $50,000 salary cap to roster 8 players. This gives us an average of $6,250 per player. Getting to the recommended 300 point plateau, we need all 8 players to average 37.5 DraftKings fantasy points (DKFPTS). While it may sound challenging, keeping this elementary math in the back of your head while building your roster is important. Limit your risk as much as possible and find 8 players that fit this criteria. Lets take a look at this NBA DFS slate.

Scenario

Both The Toronto Raptors (-13.5), and The Boston Celtics (-7.5) are up 3 games to none, and could wrap up the series today. Unlike the other games in these series, this is important to make a note on because if they get substantial leads today, they may pull some of the starters to rest them before the next round of games. The Raptors especially, having the second highest implied team total (ITT) on the slate (115.5), make their players high risk/reward candidates.

With the Luka Doncic news pending, there should be some value opening up on this NBA DFS slate. Patrick Beverly (Doubtful, calf injury) is another piece of news, that I may target on both sides of the ball.

Cash Game Core (Spend Up)

Pascal Siakam ($7900) Pascal fits the mold of high risk/reward on this NBA DFS slate. He’s averaging 43 DKFPTS against the Nets in 6 games this season. Siakam is a threat to reach the double/double bonus every time he’s on the floor. He posted a 26/8/5 stat line for 45 DKFPTS last game. After starting out cold in the bubble, his game seems to rounding into form. Pascal scores 1.16 fantasy points (FP) per minute, and has a decent usage rate of 27.5%. He’s matched up against a Brooklyn squad that ranks 26^th against power forwards. The Nets look to have all but given up on the season. $7900 is just too cheap for the upside here. I’m taking the risk that he gets at least 30 minutes, and 40 DKFPTS, for 5X value.

Fred VanVleet ($7700) VanVleet is another guy who has been on point in the bubble. I love targeting Raptors against this banged up, defensively deficient Brooklyn squad. Fred’s salary still doesn’t seem to be increasing enough, as his 6 game average verse the Nets dictates 46 DKFPTS this season. That alone would give him 6X value. I think he’s playing better than those numbers represent. I see VanVleet as the forth starter to leave the court in a blowout scenario, after Gasol, Lowry, and Siakam.

Others I’m considering in the upper tier on this NBA DFS slate include Paul George ($8000), Kyle Lowry ($8100), and Rudy Gobert ($7800).

Cash Game Core (Average)

Jamal Murray ($6800) Jamal’s minutes were down the last 2 games verse Utah after getting blown out. His salary and ownership dropped as well! Murray is still averaging 42 DKFPTS in just over 35 minutes/gm. verse the Jazz in 5 games this season. I expect Murray and the Nuggets to step up in a big way today after watching Donovan Mitchell attempt to flush their season down the toilet. Anything close to his season averages gets us 6X value. He’s a key piece (with upside) in our cash game lineups.

Serge Ibaka ($5800) Ibaka seems to be fully recovered from a knee issue that sidelined him earlier this month. Feasting on this Brooklyn front court seems like easy pickings on this NBA DFS slate, especially with a Raptor bench player that may see his full allotment of minutes. Anything around this 36 DKFPTS average against the Nets this season, gives us 6X value. Using his salary at center gives us a lot of extra salary to work with. It may also be a contrarian move with a lot of people paying up for a stud at the center position.

Mike Conley ($6300) Conley picked up right where he left off, after leaving the bubble for the birth of his baby. He didn’t miss a beat, shooting 9-13 from the field, draining 7 of 8 from behind the arc, and adding 27 points. Utah’s 37 point thrashing of Denver on Thursday gave him 38.5 DKFPTS on his $5900 salary. That equated to just under 7X value. He got a nice bump in salary but I still think he’s a viable option in cash games.

Risk Option

I really like the combination of Jaylen Brown ($7300) and Kemba Walker ($6900) in cash game lineups at these salaries. Boston will be without the services of Gordon Hayward (ankle) for a while. I expect Marcus Smart to be deployed as a defensive specialist to slow down Tobias Harris and annoy Embiid as much as possible. The Celtics will be looking to lean on the other starters to step up their offense. I’m not 100% sold on rostering Celtics knowing they may get pulled for rest if Philadelphia doesn’t show up for this do-or-die game. Their respective salaries are enticing for cash game purposes on this NBA DFS slate.

Cash Game Core (Value)

As I mentioned earlier, The Luka Doncic/Patrick Beverly news in that DAL/LAC game should open up some nice value on this NBA DFS slate. If Doncic can’t play, look for Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5700), Seth Curry ($4600), Trey Burke ($4100), and even Delon Wright ($3500) to step up their games offensively. On the flip side, if defensive specialist Patrick Beverly can’t go, I expect Landry Shamet ($3400) to get the start at PG, and both Lou Williams ($5900), and Reggie Jackson ($3500) to see bumps in production.

Shake Milton ($4400) Milton is looking to plant an anchor as a future piece of the Sixer squad. His minutes and productivity have been steadily increasing, and I expect him to see solid minutes today for a Philadelphia team desperate to find offense anywhere they can.

Some others I’m considering on this NBA DFS slate are Marcus Morris Sr. ($5400), Jordan Clarkson ($5300), Ivica Zubac ($4400), Monte Morris ($3900)

I highly encourage all readers to join myself, and the rest of the WinDaily family in the Discord chat rooms as we break down and discuss our favorite plays further. Thank you for reading my content and feel free to leave a comment, or hit me up on Twitter @IsaiahsProtocol.

Good Luck And Have Fun