NBA

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/3

I hope the Pacers enjoyed losing to the Knicks because that’s what they deserve for Damontas Sabonis shooting the ball just eight times. It was about the definition of the way things went last night as both my favorite plays on the slate really struggled. Fortunately, the article hit on a lot of strong plays. We get a seven game slate tonight with a lot better options than we had last night so let’s get into the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/3!

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

*Note* Luka Doncic is questionable, which would be a big shift in the slate. I’m not going to list the options right now but if he’s out, Tim Hardaway Jr. would be about a lock on this slate. The offense for Dallas has to come from somewhere.

*UPDATE* Luka is doubtful so we can fire up some Dallas value. Tim Hardaway Jr. is a lock on both sites. Josh Richardson is my next favorite value. Dorian Finney-Smith, Jalen Brunson and possibly even Trey Burke are on the board for value plays as as well, though I would prefer that grouping in GPP. Keep an eye on the projections as they update!

Point Guard

Kyrie Irving ($9,000 DK/$9,500 FD) – Oh yes, we will be playing Nets in this matchup. Kyrie and Kevin Durant are running the show, and without Spencer Dinwiddie off the floor Kyrie is up to a 31.7% usage rate. Both of these teams are in the top eight in pace on the young season and Washington has the third-worst points allowed. Irving is sporting just a 52.3% true shooting rate right now, which is a 5% drop from his career average.

Damian Lillard ($9,800 DK/$9,300 FD) – Dame Time is really too cheap on FD and fairly priced on DK. Will I play him over Kyrie in cash, probably not. However, if you find yourself with a lineup that you love spending up at the PG position, Dame is your dude to pair with Kyrie on FD. No team gives up more real points than the Warriors right now and Dame is sitting at a 30% usage rate. No team is allowing a higher percentage from three than the 44.5% Golden State allows, perfect for Lillard’s game. Even if this game gets lopsided, Dame has upside just like he did last time.

Mike Conley ($6,900 DK/$6,600 FD) – Conley continues his presence in the article because he just keeps producing and playing safe minutes. San Antonio is 10th in pace, so it’s a big upgrade for the Jazz in general who sit 27th. Conley is shooting the lights out at a 63.4% true shooting rate, but the 25% assist rate and 25.8% usage sustains him. Even with the 1.20 FPPM sure to drop with a few less real points, Conley is still a steady pick for cash right now.

Dejounte Murray ($6,700 DK/$7,400 FD) – One of the reasons I brought up Lillard is that there is not a lot of glaring value at this position so far. For the Spurs, LaMarcus Aldridge is still questionable but Derrick White is out. That likely pushes Murray back towards the 33-35 minute mark, and that’s enough to be considered in cash. If LMA is out as well, Murray has a 27.9% usage rate and a 1.29 FPPM. The Jazz are a good defensive team but with the Spurs pushing the pace, Murray still works.

Tyus Jones ($5,400 DK/$5,700 FD) – I’ll be the first to tell you that Jones is not a main target for me. He’s here because we try to find the lowest threshold at every position that I think we could use (at the time of writing). Jones hasn’t hit 30 minutes since Ja Morant went down, which is not super helpful. He does have 14 total assists in those two games and his true shooting on the year is 38.5%, worst on the team outside of Grayson Allen. He’s scraping by and you’re hoping the shooting comes around a bit. I would think some value will pop up.

Honorable Mention – Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry

Shooting Guard

DeMar DeRozan ($7,500 DK/$8,500 FD) – DDR would really only enter my pool if Aldridge is out again. He also is only SF/PF on DK, but slightly easier to fit. On FD, DDR is the highest I’d go because C.J. McCollum terrifies me at that price for cash. He’s taking four more triples a game and hitting at 45.6%, almost 6% higher than his career. Anyways, DeRozan is quite safe by the looks of things if LMA sits. He’s fourth in drives per game but outside the top 10 in field goal attempts when driving. That means he’s less likely to go into the teeth of the Jazz defense and opens up other opportunities to rack up the fantasy points.

Paul George ($8,700 DK/$8,000 FD) – PG13 is not my favorite play, but the price on FD still isn’t quite high enough. The Suns have been very strong defensively so far this year, allowing the fewest points in the association. Also, these two teams rank in the bottom two in pace. This is legit the slowest game you could get right now. It doesn’t check a lot of boxes that we really like, but George still has a 30.6% usage rate and the second-highest assist rate on the team. Phoenix does rank eighth in made three’s allowed, so George can overcome some of the other factors.

Dillon Brooks ($6,300 DK/$6,600 FD) – Much like Tyus Jones, I’m not in love with Brooks. The Lakers are ninth in points allowed and just average for pace, but Brooks is going to shoot. His usage rate without Morant is a massive 33.1% and he’s never met a shot he didn’t like. In the three games Morant has been out or missed more than a half, Brooks has recorded 19, 18 and 17 field goal attempts. His true shooting is only 50.3% right now, just a bit under his career average. At least at this price you know the shots will come.

Malik Beasley ($5,900 DK/$5,200 FD) – He’s cheaper on FD and I like him better there. On DK, this would be the range that we lock in THJ if Luka is out. Beasley hasn’t racked up a lot of secondary stats lately but the usage without Karl Anthony-Towns is what we want. Beasley has a 23.1% mark with just a 0.86 FPPM. Last time out was really the first time he’s shot well this year and if you want the Brian Tulloch Narrative factor, Beasley is an ex-Nugget. I still have a feeling different options will emerge, on DK if nothing else.

Honorable Mention – Bradley Beal (Westbrook is back but this game is an elite target overall), Dennis Schroeder (FD only, the DK price is outrageous)

Small Forward

Kevin Durant ($9,300 DK/$9,600 FD) – I will continue to play KD as long as his price sits in this range and he’s in a fast-paced game. I will never fault you if you go LeBron James in this salary range as LeBron is playing 35 minutes a night right now. Still, the Nets game opened at a 242 total, highest on the board. Durant is right next to Kyrie in usage and FPPM, and you can continue to play both together freely. KD is going to overmatch whomever Washington throws at him at the four, be it Rui Hachimura or otherwise. Durant averaging a block and more than a steal a game is just icing on the cake.

Keldon Johnson ($6,100 DK/$5,800 FD) – I’m not advocating to play three Spurs in cash but they are legit options, Johnson included. He’s not seen virtually any change with Aldridge on or off the floor, and he averages a 21.9% usage rate and a 1.11 FPPM. He has three games with nine rebounds or more so far and the Spurs will need help since the Jazz are first in rebounds already. Johnson is looking more confident from beyond the arc and the Jazz are third in three point percentage allowed. If DDR is driving and kicking the ball to avoid Rudy Gobert, there’s going to be opportunities for Johnson.

Rui Hachimura ($5,200 DK/$5,000 FD) – I think he’s a bit too cheap on both sites for the game environment. I do have some slight concerns about KD on the other side, and maybe Ghost has a stronger take on this. However, I think we see Rui go back towards 30 minutes. He only played 19 last game on a back to back, and now he’s had a couple days off. The sophomore has a 23.7% usage rate and a 1.08 FPPM in his limited time, an encouraging sign. Even with Westbrook playing in his Hachimura’s first game, he turned in a well-rounded effort at 17/5/3. If he pushes 30 minutes tonight, he should smoke this salary.

Will Barton ($5,400 DK/$5,000 FD) – Nobody will want to hear this but Barton is not a bad play tonight. When we can get a player that logs 36 minutes at this price who has talent and can score, we need to pay attention. He was dreadful from the field last game, but he still walked away with about a 20% usage rate. The T-Wolves are 11th in pace and fourth-worst in real points given up. Barton ended at 18.3 DK while recording TWO real points. These are the guys I look for in cash because when they shoot like an NBA player, the fantasy points will flow.

Otto Porter ($6,200 DK/$4,400 FD) – The disparity in pricing is absurd and Porter is a FanDuel special. This game should stay more competitive than the last one and Lauri Markkanen remains out. When he’s been off the floor, Porter has a 20.7% usage rate and a 1.13 FPPM. His true shooting is almost 70% which is ridiculous but he should be ticketed for 30 minutes. Dallas is playing slow but the Bulls are running at highest pace in the league right now. The Mavs are fourth-best in points allowed so far but the Bulls pulling their pace up, Porter will get enough chances to pay off his FD price.

Honorable Mention – Joe Harris, Kyle Anderson (I just hate the price)

Power Forward

Anthony Davis ($9,700 DK/$10,000 FD) – Davis has joined LeBron in playing more than 30 minutes lately, which means they need to be on the radar every single night. He’s under $10,000 on DK which I’m not sure should ever happen. On FD, he’s the lone pay-up option. The next most expensive could be Aldridge at $6,200 or Draymond Green in limited minutes at $6,000. This alone will likely get some ownership to him and the spread is only nine points, so I don’t factor in blowout. Davis has been a little quiet at a 1.29 FPPM so far, but flashed his ceiling last game with about 60 fantasy points on either site. I wouldn’t expect him to have any issues dicing up this Memphis “front court” that is made up of Jonas Valanciunas, Brandon Clarke and Gorgui Dieng.

Robert Covington ($5,000 DK/$5,200 FD) – These are the exact style of games that I want to target RoCo in. I played him in GPP the last game so he’s in the cash article this time. Golden State is top five in pace and bottom 10 in rebounding, opening up chances for Covington to crash the glass. He’s yet to break double-digit real points on 45.7% true shooting, but he can rack up secondary stats in a game like this. The O/U is checking in as the second-highest at an early look.

Thad Young ($3,900 DK/$4,200 FD) – You can see why paying up for Davis gets attractive quickly, because we’re going back to Rad Thad. He’s been playing over 20 minutes with Markkanen out and is averaging 0.92 FPPM. The 18.5% usage rate is nothing to sneer at in this salary range and I expect him to gain some traction again through the day.

Honorable Mention – Nicholas Batum, Naz Reid (I worry about fouls. Nikola Jokic is about 15th in attempts per game).

Center

Nikola Jokic ($10,600 DK/$10,600 FD) – The big man still leads the entire league in touches and is averaging a triple-double. He put up right about 50 DK in under 30 minutes last game, gets a fast-paced team that can’t defend and Michael Porter Jr. is still out. We don’t need to spend a lot of time here. It’s an elite spot for a player of Joker’s caliber, and the spread is only 8.5. If he plays his average of 36 minutes (top 12 in the league), he has 70+ DK in the outcome with the bonuses.

Thomas Bryant ($6,600 DK/$5,800 FD) – Bryant is a hair expensive on DK but very affordable on FD. We get the fast-paced game we talked about, which is a big check mark. Bryant is 16th in paint touches per game and seventh in attempts. Brooklyn ranks 27th in points given up in the paint and 24th in rebounds in the paint. Even with Westy being a pain and sniping rebounds, Bryant is still in a prime spot and playing about 30-32 minutes per night. He could be my center of choice on FD.

Wendell Carter Jr. ($6,000 DK/$5,500 FD) – Copy and paste about expensive on DK, but very palatable on FD. Dallas has been struggling inside the paint early, allowing points to be scored in bunches at 22nd. They are really missing Kristaps Porzingis as they are 27th in rebounds across the league, and Carter averages 14.8 chances per game. He’s logged two double-doubles already and while I like Bryant more, Carter could be an alternative if you can’t find the $300.

Honorable Mention – Rudy Gobert, Jarrett Allen

DK Core

Kyrie, Tim Hardaway Jr., Nikola Jokic, Will Barton

FD Core

Kyrie Irving, Tim Hardaway Jr., Otto Porter, Anthony Davis

Thank you for reading and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/2

It was another fairly low-scoring night in the DFS world, with a lot of starts playing fine but unspectacular. Slates with 10 or more games can be difficult to narrow down the pool, but with just five on the docket for tonight life gets easier from that respect. We some really interesting spots on the board to night to sort through for NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/2!

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

Point Guard

Trae Young ($10,200 DK/$9,700 FD) – These two teams have yet to tangle but Cleveland has been struggling holding guards in check. Neither Collin Sexton or Darius Garland have made strides as a defender so far and Young stands out. He’s a little pricey on DK but the FD price is much easier to get behind. Young still leads the Hawks in usage at 34.5% and FPPM at 1.57. I wonder is a sub-par game last night as a chalky option drops him tonight.

Malcolm Brogdon ($7,400 DK/$7,500 FD) – You can certainly play Kyle Lowry and be safe, but when Brogdon is cheaper on both sites I know who I’m going to prefer. He’s top 30 in assists in the league and he usage rate is over 24% on this team. The Pacers are concentrated around Brogdon and a few more players, plus the Knicks are bottom 10 in assists allowed to the point guard. With T.J. Warren out for an extended period, the whole core is gong to need to raise their game just a bit. Brogdon is already top 10 in touches per game.

Markelle Fultz ($6,200 DK/$5,800 FD) – Fultz was a dud last game, but who on the Magic wasn’t? He has a good chance to get back in the saddle tonight and he’s been playing about 30 minutes when the game demands it. No player on the Magic is higher than his 27.1% usage rate and his game has improved a bit. He’s talking more shots so far and he’s getting to the line a bit more, while shooting almost 94% from the stripe. With Orlando inside the top five in pace, this is a fair price for him.

Elfrid Payton ($6,100 DK/$5,000 FD) – I doubt I get to Elf on DK in cash games, but the Knicks are still missing Dennis Smith Jr. and Frank Ntilikina on Saturday. That should leave Elf at a safe 24 minutes with a ceiling for plenty more. We talked about it last time but I really like the fact Payton contributes everywhere, averaging almost four rebounds and over four assists per game. It’s not just about scoring with him and the 24% usage is second on the team behind Julius Randle.

Honorable Mention – LaMelo Ball (not my favorite cash play ever but the minutes are getting steadier and his past two games have looked much better)

Darius Garland on DK

Shooting Guard

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($7,900 DK/$8,200 FD) – SGA is only a point guard on DK, but I feel like he might pick up some popularity on FD. He does lead the Thunder in usage at 28.1% but the 1.00 FPPM isn’t that great at the current price tag. Even with the changes in the Thunder lineup, SGA is still just shooting the ball about 15 times per game and the true shooting is down a bit to 55.5%. The assists and rebounds have gone up this year, but he’s not really an $8,000 player. He does bring a bit of safety and plays 34 minutes night, if nothing else.

Fred VanVleet ($7,700 DK/$7,500 FD) – Another player who’s price is a little high, FVV has had some ups and downs in the four games so far. He’s had two games that he’s shot poorly and two that he shot about 50% from the field. I’m a little more willing to take chances on shooters like FVV since he can rack up the assist and rebounds decently for a guard. His assist rate of 31.3% trails only Lowry on the Raptors and the 1.11 FPPM is actually first.

Victor Oladipo ($6,700 DK/$7,200 FD) – With Warren out, the scoring burden now falls mostly onto two players. No disrespect to Brogdon who absolutely can, but Dipo and Damontas Sabonis are going to be called upon to carry the scoring more. To wit, Dipo has a 1.12 FPPM with Warren off the floor so far this year and he edges Brogdon in usage by 1%. He hit 35 DK las game while shooting 5-14 from the field, which tells you where the ceiling is.

Collin Sexton ($7,100 DK/$6,800 FD) – I’m always fairly hesitant to use a player like Sexton at this price because if the shot doesn’t work, it could spell issues. However, this is a huge pace up spot for the Cavs and Sexton is going to have a boatload of chances to put up a big score. He is second on the team with a 24.6% usage rate so far. Atlanta is fourth in pace and in the bottom five in real points allowed, the combo that we love. Sexton drives a little over 15 times a game and Atlanta is 25th in points in the paint allowed. I wouldn’t be surprised if Clint Capela isn’t off his minutes limit or sits outright here either, making the interior defense that much worse. Lastly, Sexton is third in minutes per game this year.

Seth Curry ($5,600 DK/$4,900 FD) – I’m not a big fan of suggesting role players who are sporting a ridiculous 72.2% true shooting rate because that can’t stick around. It just can’t. However, this is probably as low as you can go on FD without some value opening up through the day. When the game stays close, Curry is ticketed for about 32-24 minutes and has just under an 18% usage rate. His spacing and shooting will be needed in a major way for the Sixers all year, so the minutes are secure. The Hornets are second in three point frequency allowed at 45.1% which doesn’t hurt at all.

Honorable Mention – Devonte’ Graham

Small Forward

Larry Nance ($6,900 DK/$6,800 FD) – Nance continues to be power forward/center on DK but we can’t ignore him with Kevin Love still out. The Cavs are still thin with Isaac Okoro and Kevin Porter out as well. Nance is pricey for DK but could fit better on FD because he’s not a usage monster or big on the FPPM so far. The usage is under 13% which isn’t a shock with who he’s playing with. This is just minutes in a big pace up spot and they’ll need Nance to contend with the big boys up front. Atlanta is eighth in rebounds given up, but Nance can really flourish in this game style while racking up peripheral stats.

R.J. Barrett ($6,500 DK/$5,800 FD) – Another easier fit on FD, it kind of figures that Barrett shot 4-19 from the field the game that in contented how he’s improved. Even still, he hit 27 DK and grinned his way to 12 real points. That’s the kind of player I want in cash, because he didn’t utterly kill you while hitting four shots. The minutes are spiked as well, as he sits ninth in minutes per game. That’s really enough for me and the Nance/Barrett combo makes sense to spend up elsewhere.

Cam Reddish/Danilo Gallinari/De’Andre Hunter – This trio are all back to back to back in pricing, and we need to see who’s active. If Gallo is good to go and isn’t limited, he’s my favorite of the bunch. Gallo is also just PF on DK, making it a bit more of a challenge to play him but the price is silly on both sites for a starter of his caliber. The Hawks didn’t bring him in for no reason. Look for an update on this tomorrow, but the Hawks game is a prime target overall for me.

Honorable Mention – Brandon Ingram, Gordon Hayward, Tobias Harris are all fine options. I just think SF might be more of a spend down spot.

Power Forward

Domantas Sabonis ($9,400 DK/$9,400 FD) – On DK, it might come down to Sabonis or another player we’ve yet to talk about. I’m not sure the cash pathway exists for both as we stand. We’ve talked about Warren being out, which gooses Sabonis too. What I’m not sure I want to do is mess with Justin or Aaron Holiday. Neither played more than 24 minutes and the rest of the core is healthy. Sabonis leads the charge with a 1.47 FPPM and a 26.6% usage rate. He currently sits third in basketball with 11 paint touches per game and second in touches and that’s not going to go down. The Knicks are 26th in points and 20th in rebounds allowed in the paint. This is an elite spot for Sabonis and he’s a total lock on FD.

Julius Randle ($9,100 DK/$8,000 FD) – He’s too pricey for me on DK but FD hasn’t raised his price at all. Not only will it be all hands on deck to defend Sabonis, but Randle is leading the team in FPPM at 1.25. His assists have exploded to seven per game so far and he sits at a 2.8 mark for his career. We probably shouldn’t bank on that sticking around, but he’s got the ball in his hands a lot (fifth-most touches per game) and you don’t get that for $8,000. My only *slight* fear with these two beasts is the foul each other too much. Both are top 15 in attempts from the stripe right now.

John Collins ($7,500 DK/$7,000 FD) – Collins is coming out of the funk from the start of the year a bit, posting back to back solid efforts of at least 20 real points. The fouls will never stop being a concern, but he comes the cheapest on Sabonis, Randle, Pascal Siakam and Zion. That alone brings value to this slate. Dealing with the Cleveland big men isn’t going to be a fun challenge, making him not my preferred cash play but game log watchers might give him attention. He does have a 23.7% usage rate, which is easily second-best behind Trae Young. The 1.27 FPPM offsets some minutes concerns. I will note that Clint Capela played 30 on Friday while Collins played 25. That again leads me to suspect Capela is limited or sits, emphasizing the need for Collins.

Doug McDermott ($4,900 DK/$4,000 FD) – Dougie McBuckets is a punt option on this slate, as the scoring off the bench is more important now. I’m not paying nearly $5,000 for him on DK but on FD, he’s still cheap. He’s playing about 24 minutes a night and he’s been in double-figures in real points in four of five games. The true shooting is under 60% so I don’t think he’s doing anything too crazy from the floor right now. If anything, his 32% from three is way off his career 41%. He’s not the prototypical option, but on FD he’s viable.

Honorable Mention – Siakam, Zion

Center

Andre Drummond ($9,200 DK/$10,000 FD) – He’s cheap-ish on DK for what he’s produced so far and Drummond or Sabonis is a real question tonight if just playing one. I tend to give an ever so slight lean to Sabonis even on DK but I really want to play both in cash (if value allows). You can debate how valuable the skill set for Drum is in the real NBA all you want, for fantasy he’s incredible. With the pieces that Cleveland is missing, Drum has a 29.9% usage rate and a 1.76 FPPM. He leads the league in paint touches, rebounds, and is second in rebound chances. Atlanta is bottom 10 in real points allowed in the paint and this is a big pace up spot for Drum. My bold take is he goes Barbara Walters, which is a 20/20 game.

Nikola Vucevic ($8,700 DK/$8,400 FD) – I love Vuc as a GPP play and will be playing Drum over him wherever I can. However, there’s nothing wrong with playing Vuc in cash other than he won’t be popular. JoVal went 14/10 last night on just nine shots in 25 minutes, which Vucevic should play more than that. He’s playing 32-34 when the game is close to warrant playing time. His 1.40 FPPM is head and shoulders above anyone else on the team and this is an excellent spot with the Hornets being in the top 15 in pace. The Magic are fifth on their own.

Honorable Mention – Joel Embiid, Clint Capela (he’s looking like he’s active, just keep an eye on the minutes)

As you can see, center is pretty thin on FD. Don’t chase Steven Adams, as Zion was in foul trouble all game last time. Let’s see what value pops up through the day.

DK Core

Sabonis, Capela (unless minutes are restricted), Oladipo, LaMelo (DK Only)

I am willing to punt an Aaron Holiday on DK just to fit the Drummond/Sabonis combo

FD Core

Payton, Sabonis, Drummond, Sexton

Thank you for reading and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!