NBA Thursday 2/18 Core Four

NBA Thursday 2/18 Core Four

For a three-game slate, we have a ton of options at the top end. We have Giannis Antetokounmpo under $11,000, LeBron James against the Nets at a low price, and the Miami studs against the Sacramento Kings. With the marquee game being the Lakers and Nets squaring off, I wonder how these other two fall for ownership. It’s going to be fascinating to see it unfold through the day but let’s lay the baseline in the NBA Thursday 2/18 Core Four to find the green! 

LeBron James($10,200 DK/$10,500) – I already know that Brian will want to stack this game, and who wouldn’t? The Nets will still be without Kevin Durant, so it’s much easier to peg who we should play on that side. The biggest priority for me in this game is King James. He’s without Anthony Davis, meaning he’s right at a 1.50 FPPM. Now we add in the pace the Nets play at which is top five. We then add in they hemorrhage points on the defensive end and are 18th in rebounding. LeBron just missed a triple-double last game, but I don’t think he does this game. I plan to pair him with another stud that we’ll get to in a minute. 

Hassan Whiteside($4,600 DK/$6,000 FD) – We already know that Richaun Holmes is out for the Kings, which is a big deal for Whiteside. It’s always a bit of a surprise to see the Heat dead last in rebounding since they have a very talented big in Bam Adebayo. They are also just average in paint points allowed at 16th, so this is not a bad spot exactly for Whiteside. Even if it wasn’t the best spot on paper, he’s under $5,000 on DK and should approach 24-28 minutes tonight. Provided he stays out of foul trouble, we could get a cheaper double-double. He’s sporting a very high 1.43 FPPM without Holmes and Harrison Barnes off the floor. 

Marc Gasol($4,000/$5,200 FD) – The wily big man is seldom on my radar, but the fact he’s playing Brooklyn negates just about all factors. They are dead last in points in the paint allowed and he’s coming off a game where he played 29 minutes. Gasol is going to be my center of choice if playing FD tonight, and that position is extremely gross. Whiteside is really overpriced and there are very few options. Gasol is at nearly a full 1.00 FPPM on just a 10% usage rate with AD off the floor through 166 minutes. That’s plenty at this price, in this matchup. I was ready to write up Montrezl Harrell but the disparity in minutes is scary in my eyes. The last game saw Trez play just 18 minutes and even against Brooklyn, that could be tough to pay off. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,900 DK/$11,300) – The “fun” play is to stack Kyrie Irving with LeBron. There’s plenty of history there to pick at and I’m very interested in going that route if we get enough value. If not, I’m going to prioritize Greek ahead of Kyrie Irving. We say it all the time. On small slates, we need raw points and in honesty, Giannis has the highest odds of being the top scorer on this slate. In the games Jrue Holiday has been out, Giannis has played 34, 38, 39, 36, and 37 minutes. Not only is he constantly on the court, Giannis sees his usage rise to 33.4% and the FPPM go up to 1.76. As good as Kyrie is, he’s not at those ratios so the Giannis and LeBron combo is my starting point. 

Thank you for reading NBA Thursday 2/18 Core Four and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/17

As of now, we have 10 games on the slate which means a lot of avenues to consider. There are quite a few back-to-back sets and we’ll have our normal runs of injuries and the like before lock. This is the NBA life and I’m sure the landscape will change in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/17 but let’s lay the foundation! 

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/17 Injury Report

Knicks – Mitchell Robinson (O)

Magic – Aaron Gordon, Cole Anthony (O), James Ennis, Evan Fournier (Q)

Hawks – De’Andre Hunter, Rajon Rondo, Bogdan Bogdanovic (O)

Celtics – Marcus Smart (O)

Rockets – Christian Wood (O), Victor Oladipo, P.J. Tucker, Eric Gordon (Q)

Sixers – Shake Milton (O)

Pacers – Doug McDermott (Q) 

Wolves – D’Angelo Russell (O)

Nuggets – Could be down to 8-9 players again

Wizards – Ish Smith (O)

Pistons – Blake Griffin (O)

Bulls – Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter (O)

Blazers – CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic, Rodney Hood, Harry Giles (O)

Thunder – SGA, George Hill (O)

Heat – Goran Dragic (Q)

Warriors – James Wiseman, Kevan Looney (O)

Jazz – Mike Conley (Q)

Clippers – Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Nic Batum (O)

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/17 Positions

Point Guard

Russell Westbrook ($10,000 DK/$9,200 FD) The DK price doesn’t interest me that much, but the FD price certainly does. Catching a short-handed Denver team on a back-to-back is something Westy can take advantage of and he’s a triple-double threat still every night. Even with Bradley Beal as the main focal point of the offense, Westbrook can still be massively useful for fantasy. For someone that has a 47.4% true shooting rate on the season, the 1.38 FPPM is incredible and the 31.1% usage rate props him up every night. I don’t think defensive acumen will be on display in this game. If Westy is very low in ownership projections, we can probably just pay $300 for Damian Lillard on FD. 

Malcolm Brogdon ($7,700 DK/$8,000 FD) – Ghost made a fantastic call the last game with Brogdon being a pivot to the John Wall chalk. Brogdon basically matched Wall’s production and I’m back for mooooorrreee tonight. Minnesota played last night and plays no defense while running at a fast pace. It’s a big jump for the Pacers since the Wolves are top-five in pace and Brogdon is at home there. He can score, he can dish and he has almost a 28% usage without Victor Oladipo. 

Jamal Murray ($7,100 DK/$6,500 FD) – It’s mostly a rinse and repeat spot. Denver looks to be short-handed again and only seven players got more than 10 minutes last night. Murray put up 40+ fantasy points on both sites with nine turnovers. He only took 16 shots but he’s going to be relied on heavily again. It’s a much better matchup than last night with Washington number one in pace and 25th in defensive rating. Also, don’t forget Facundo Campazzo. If Monte Morris remains out, Campazzo is likely to be 90% owned in cash. Take the free square and move on. 

Michael Carter-Williams ($4,700 DK/$4,400 FD) – I would only look this direction if the Magic are still down to 8-10 players but they still don’t have a point guard. They signed Chasson Randle because MCW can’t play the whole game. In his two games back, he’s played 27 and 29 minutes and the usage has been massive. He’s walked into a 30.9% usage and a 1.10 FPPM, even with a 48.4% true shooting rate. You don’t pass up those numbers at this salary. 

Honorable Mention – Dame, Monte Morris (if active)

Shooting Guard 

Bradley Beal ($9,800 DK/$9,800) – We have a Bradley Beal Rule around here – if he’s under $10,000, he’s cash viable on every single slate. I mean, this man leads the league in usage and real points. He’s under $10,000 and he really shouldn’t be. I like Beal for all the reasons I talked about in Westbrook’s blurb and the 1.41 FPPM is excellent for Beal. Also, he can show off for his next team (shut up, I want him in Denver. I don’t crush your dreams). I invoke the Bradley Beal Rule. 

Anthony Edwards ($6,000 DK/$6,000 FD) – D-Lo is out for the next few weeks and I’m at the point where I “trust” Edwards in cash. That’s in quotes because he’s still a rookie and could have some issues here and there. He’s hit at least 30 fantasy points in five of the last six games and just went for 28 real points last night, which is a career-high to this point. Edwards is flirting with a 28% usage with no D-Lo, and a 0.98 FPPM. Since he’s playing 32-34 minutes per game, the price won’t kill you even if he just nets 30 fantasy tonight. I believe this is more than just chasing a big game, as the rookie is flashing why he was the number one pick. 

Kevin Huerter ($5,900 DK/$5,300) – I really dislike this position tonight and may wind up using Huerter on FD. On DK, I may as well just play Edwards on DK at their salaries but Campazzo is a big likelihood if he’s an option. Anyways, Huerter is back to playing about 35 minutes per night and that’s mostly all we need. Now, Huerter does have a 0.85 FPPM when the players are off for the Hawks tonight. It’s not like he’s P.J. Tucker out there. There’s still nothing special in this play other than FD. 

Honorable Mention – Donovan Mitchell, Jordan Clarkson (if Conley is out), Terrence Ross (pending Magic depth)

Small Forward 

Jimmy Butler ($8,800 DK/$8,900 FD) – Jimmy Buckets is a man on a mission right now as he’s trying to pull the Heat back up the East standings. Miami suffered a tough loss last time out and need wins, but it wasn’t on Butler they didn’t win last game. He had a triple-double again for 65 DK points. Against an undersized Warriors team that loves to push the pace, Butler may well triple-double again. This is a wheelhouse spot for Butler and his 26.9% usage rate with Dragic off the floor. He might be a luxury in cash, but I adore this spot for him. 

Shaddiq Bey ($5,500 DK/$5,800 FD) – Normally, I’d preach a little bit of caution with Bey. Sure, Blake Griffin is done with the Pistons until he gets released or traded. That opens up a boatload of minutes for the rookie, playing 27 and 38 the past two games. This is a perfect spot to go after him even at a very high salary. Detroit sits 27th in pace but the Bulls are third in pace and 21st in defensive rating. With Blake off the floor, Bey has a 0.80 FPPM but he can get hot from deep in a hurry. 

On FD, the choice comes down to going back to Michael Porter Jr. or Joe Ingles in my eyes. I honestly lean Ingles. Look, Porter could well go bananas against the Wizards. He has a plethora of talent and has since Day One. My fear is even with the Nuggets down to 10 players and down three starters, MPJ played just 24 minutes last night. He’s played almost 55 minutes the past two games and has a total of eight real points. At least with Ingles, he’s going to get court time. He’s sitting at about a 1.00 FPPM. The Clippers will be focused on stopping Donovan Mitchell, so Ingles has the safer floor in my eyes. If he’s hitting his three’s Ingles could clear MPJ easily. 

Honorable Mention – Kawhi Leonard (if active), Brandon Ingram

Power Forward 

Domantas Sabonis ($9,700 DK/$9,700 FD) – I’d be happy to play Brogdon and the Pacers big man together. They carry the offense since they’re both about a 28% usage rate and Sabonis leads in FPPM at 1.28. Karl Anthony-Towns is an extremely talented player but he cannot/will not play defense. Sabonis should be able to do whatever he likes around the basket and he ranks sixth in field goal attempts per game in the paint. The price is back up and it might take a bit of the ceiling out, but I certainly still feel very comfortable with the floor. I could also see the argument to save a little bit of salary on FD and just play Bam Adebayo, who should smash the Warriors on the inside. 

Zion Williamson ($8,200 DK/$8,300 FD) – Zion has been heating up lately – 

Last night he played just 28 minutes and put up 31 real points and over 50 fantasy points. Portland is in the bottom half of the league in paint points given up, exactly what Zion does best. His 8.2 points in the paint this season is ninth in the league, and Enes Kanter could have some issues here defending the young phenom. What is really scary is Zion had a horrible start last night. He didn’t score his first points until 53 seconds left in the first quarter. Zion left with 8:46 left in the fourth. He did this damage more or less in one half of basketball. 

Nerlens Noel ($4,700 DK/$5,300 FD) – Noel is much more an attractive target on FD due to his position. He’s logged 27 and 32 minutes in the two games the Knicks have been without Robinson, which is plenty at this salary. Despite the tough spot against Atlanta, he still climbed towards 30 FD points. This looks like another tough spot as Orlando is top 10 in rebounding and paint points allowed. However, Noel is not going to score a ton. He only has 16 real points in the past two games. You don’t need them because Noel will get his from blocks and rebounds, fitting perfectly on FD. 

Honorable Mention – Bam, Julius Randle, Mo Wagner (if he’s starting)

Center 

Nikola Jokic ($11,000 DK/$10,500 FD) – Big. Honey. SZN. I would have wanted to play him in this spot if Denver was 100% healthy. That will certainly not be the case and we saw Jokic try to single-handedly win the game last night. He took 23 shots and was completely unstoppable. This is from yesterday – 

Taking the three starters off the court bumps up Jokic too, which is no surprise. He’s just under a 30% usage rate and a 1.74 FPPM. We haven’t got him under $11,000 on either site lately. 

He’s still under that threshold on FD and right at it on DK. Washington is 25th in paint points allowed and a Beal/Honey stack looks like one of my favorite plays of the entire slate. 

Clint Capela ($7,500 DK/$8,000) – As much as I love Joker, your build may not start with him. If not, the spot for Capela is quite fascinating. We just attacked Boston on the inside with Joker. Capela isn’t going to drop 40+ real points (at least I don’t think so) but Boston has a big chance to struggle slowing Capela down. They are 23rd in paint points allowed and Capela is third in points in the paint. With Boston also being 19th in rebounding, this is a stealth smash spot for the Hawks big man. 

Honorable Mention – Jonas Valanciunas, Enes Kanter, Robert Williams (if Daniel Theis is out again)

Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/17 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/16

Tonight brings us a tidy six-game slate with some injuries already known, so perhaps it will be a bit calmer than most nights. That’s not super likely, but we can dream, right? We have some really tough choices at the high-end of the salary spectrum as well, so let’s not waste any more time and dissect the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/16 to see what paths we need to take for green!

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/16 Injury Report

Nuggets – Will Barton, Paul Millsap, Gary Harris, PJ Dozier (O), Monte Morris (Q)

Celtics – Marcus Smart (O), Daniel Theis (Q)

Grizzlies – Desmond Bane, De’Anthony Melton (O)

Raptors – OG Anunoby (D)

Bucks – Jrue Holiday (O)

Lakers – Anthony Davis (O)

Wolves – D’Angelo Russell (O)

Blazers – CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic, Rodney Hood, Harry Giles (O)

Thunder – SGA, George Hill, Theo Maledon (O)

Nets – Kevin Durant (O)

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/16 Positions

Point Guard 

Damian Lillard ($9,700 DK/$9,500 FD) – Lillard continues to be underpriced on FD and this game should be competitive. OKC has been very frisky even without SGA and it’s not like Portland is a word-beater. The Thunder also rank eighth in pace, a nice uptick from the 17th ranked pace the Blazers play at. Dame drives to the hoop over 15 times per game and OKC ranks 22nd in paint points allowed. On top of that, the Thunder allow the fourth-most three-point attempts per game at 37.3. With Portland missing the players they are tonight, Dame is at a 34.4% usage and a 1.47 FPPM. This is really an excellent spot for him. 

Jamal Murray ($7,200 DK/$6,500 FD) – Rarely (maybe never) do I really consider Murray in cash. I absolutely love the talent, but he is pretty sketchy for cash game settings on a nightly basis. Why does that change tonight? The most common starting lineup for Denver has been Murray, Jokic, Millsap, Harris, and Barton. Three of those players are out tonight, as are key rotational players. Murray will have to shoulder an extra offensive load and he played 34 minutes in a blowout last game. When we are those three other starters off the court, Murray sports a 25.2% usage rate and a 1.11 FPPM. 

We’re going to be VERY interested in Denver tonight since they are so short-handed. If Morris is out as well, another player I’m pretty interested in (mostly DK) is Facundo Campazzo. He’s near the minimum and played 25 minutes last game, even with Denver having Millsap and Morris playing. We’ll need some clarity but be prepared to roll out a Nuggets heavy lineup if they are down everyone. The great news is this is the first game on the slate so we’ll know before lock. 

Dennis Schroder ($5,900 DK/$5,700 FD) – If you’re just game log hunting, this play might not make sense. However, go back more than two games and we see what Schroeder is capable of. Now that Anthony Davis is out for a bit, the crafty veteran will take on a bigger role in the offense. The usage isn’t spectacular at 21.9% but that’s what happens when you play with LeBron. I’m more interested since the Wolves play zero defense (23rd in defensive rating) and are fifth in pace. That’s a massive jump for the Lakers and their defense takes a big hit with AD off the floor. Schroeder is locked into a 30+ minute a game role right now and I’m interested. 

Honorable Mention – Kyrie Irving, Chris Paul

Shooting Guard 

*Note* I’m not going to write up James Harden as it’s redundant. He and Kyrie are the whole Nets offense while KD is out, there’s no reason not to play him in any format tonight. What is interesting is where the chalk goes. With multiple big-name studs in arguably better spots and similar ceilings, Harden may not be a strong need in cash. We’ll see how the day unfolds. 

Devin Booker ($8,300 DK/$8,500 FD) – I absolutely love D-Book tonight but full disclosure – I’m not sure if I’ll get there in cash. WE could bladder on about the Nets defense (or lack thereof) or how they play at breakneck speed (fourth in the league) and those are fun factors. However, Booker is awake for arguably the first time all year. He’s been at 27 real points or more in four straight games and last game was only taking 16 shots. He’s learning how to play with CP3 and with the Suns in a huge pace-up spot, Booker could flirt with 55 DK points in my eyes tonight. 

Gary Trent ($5,700 DK/$5,800 FD) – We’re not going to spend a ton of time here other than Portland is super thin tonight. They are in line to have 10 players, but only seven that would be in the rotation normally. Trent is going to see 35 minutes again and just like Dame, he’s willing to chuck from beyond the arc. Trent is up to 170 attempts and 44.7% from three-point land, and I’m perfectly fine taking the minutes and a good three-point matchup. 

Honorable Mention – Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks 

Small Forward 

LeBron James ($10,100 DK/$10,500 FD) – Hail to the King, baby. Bron is on his way to potentially capturing the MVP award this year, and the next few weeks are critical for him. If he carries the Lakers like he should while AD is out, it’s going to be his to lose. Make no mistake, he wants it. He’s playing just an immense amount of minutes and fell one dime short of another triple-double last game in just 30 minutes. When you’re posting 51 DK in under your normal allotment of minutes and you get the Wolves defense, that’s all I need to know. His 33.4% usage rate and 1.48 FPPM is outstanding with AD off the court. It should be on full display tonight. 

Michael Porter Jr. ($5,800 DK/$5,500 FD) – I’m not loving him on DK, but FD he seems like he’ll be a free square at this salary. His price barely moved there after a sub-par game. I’m not surprised he struggled with LeBron on the other side of the floor in honesty. I’m still not super pumped to play him, but if the Nuggets are down to 8-9 players we’ll likely have to eat the chalk. Even with my hesitance, I have to admit his 22.6% usage rate and a 1.03 FPPM do look perfectly fine at this salary. No LeBron certainly helps a lot too. 

Justin Jackson ($4,700 DK/$5,300 FD) – I don’t love the fact we’re sort of chasing Justin Jackson ceiling games, but the DK price is especially solid. Over the past two weeks, Jackson actually looks good by the metrics as well, with a 17.1% usage rate and a 0.82 FPPM. OKC is still going o be down players and Jackson has logged at least 26 minutes in the past four games. I wouldn’t use him on FD unless you’re not spending up at SF. On DK, the price is low enough to consider him and MPJ. 

Honorable Mention – Jaylen Brown, Brandon Ingram, Norman Powell

Power Forward 

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000 DK/$11,300 FD) – Ghost will tell you how much trouble the Raptors have had guarding big men his year, and they don’t come a lot bigger and badder than Giannis. Toronto has no real rim protection at 25th in paint points allowed and their best shot is Chris Boucher. I don’t love his odds of staying out of foul trouble, which means Greek could feast on Aaron Baynes for a lot of the night. On top of that, Giannis has been a monster without Jrue Holiday. On the year, he’s at a 33.9% usage rate and a 1.75 FPPM. That’s the kind of production needed to justify this salary. It’s going to be very tough to pick from the stars tonight. 

Jayson Tatum ($8,700 DK/$9,500 FD) – I will continue to harp that one of these times Tatum is under $9,000, he’s going to destroy his salary. Sure, he and the Celtics were trash bags on Sunday but the game before Tatum almost hit 60 DK. He gets some of Michael Porter Defense, which is advantage, Tatum. The Nuggets are also just 16th in defensive rating and it’s a real struggle to see who defends Tatum tonight. His 1.22 FPPM with Marcus Smart off the court looks mediocre, but the 51.6% true shooting won’t last much longer. Buy low at this DK price tag. 

Kyle Kuzma ($5,800 FD) – I flat refuse to pay $7,000 on DK (seriously….what?) but the FD price is still palatable at a weaker position. Kuzma has quietly had a pretty solid season off the bench for the Lakers and he’s been hitting the glass hard with 6.1 boards per game. That’s the highest since his rookie year and he’s playing almost eight minutes less a night than that season. Minnesota did miss Karl Anthony-Towns for a lot of the season but Kuzma has a legit chance at a double-double tonight. Kuzma is averaging just under a 1.00 FPPM with AD off the floor this year. 

Honorable Mention – Zion, Robert Covington

Center 

Nikola Jokic ($10,700 DK/$10,600 FD) – Boy this really looks like a smash spot for Joker. Not only are the Nuggets down players, but Boston also lacks any interior defense to slow him down. Tristan Thompson? I’m wheezing with laughter thinking about TT defense on Jokic. The Celtics are 23rd in points allowed in the paint and 18th in rebounding. Taking the three starters off the court bumps up Jokic too, which is no surprise. He’s just under a 30% usage rate and a 1.74 FPPM. We haven’t got him under $11,000 on either site lately but this is a good time to buy the (slight) dip. 

Deandre Ayton ($7,100 DK/$7,000 FD) – How can we not be interested in Ayton tonight? Garbage time duly noted, but Hassan Whitside just went full ham sandwich on this Brooklyn interior. They cannot defend anyone or anything in the paint. Even though Ayton is not a primary option in the Suns offense, he leads the league in paint touches and is second in paint points. Considering he’s top 10 in rebounding chances as well, my hot take is Ayton threatens a Barbara Walters game tonight of 20 points and 20 rebounds. 

Honorable Mention – JoVal, Al Horford, Enes Kanter

Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/16 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/15

We may only have seven games on this slate, but there are some incredible spots on paper and I am excited for this one. The biggest issue right now is deciding who to anchor the lineup with, and we’ll have no shortage of choices. We also already have some injury news that changes the complexion of the slate, so let’s dig into the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/15 to find the green!

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/15 Injury Report

Bulls – Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter (O), Wendell Carter (Q)

Rockets – Christian Wood, Victor Oladipo (O)

Wizards –  Ish Smith (O)

Hawks – De’Andre Hunter (O)

Knicks – Mitchell Robinson (O)

Sixers – Joel Embiid (Q), Shake Milton (O)

Jazz – Mike Conley (O)

Cavaliers – Andre Drummond (O) Larry Nance (O)

Warriors – James Wiseman, Kevan Looney (O)

Heat – Goran Dragic (O)

Clippers – Paul George (O)

Nets – Kevin Durant (O), DeAndre Jordan (Q)

Kings – Marvin Bagley (Q)

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/15 Positions

Point Guard 

Kyrie Irving ($9,000 DK/$9,600 FD) – Since the Harden trade, Kyrie and Harden have carried the load when KD has been off the court. Kyrie sits at a 1.33 FPPM with a 32.5% usage while Harden is at a 1.41 FPPM with a 27.4% usage rate. What’s interesting now is that Kyrie told the media that Harden is now the point guard of the team, while Irving is the shooting guard. That’s not going to change much except for a small drop in the assist rate for Kyrie, which sits at a 29.6% rate. Given the pace of this game with the Kings being in the top 12 and Brooklyn being fourth, Kyrie is an elite play. The big question for me is Kyrie or a shooting guard that we’re going to get to. 

John Wall ($7,500 DK/$7,700 FD) – I mentioned yesterday that I wasn’t the biggest narrative person, but I make exceptions. John Wall against the Wizards is one of those exceptions. He can’t stand that they traded him and “gave up” on him, and we’ve seen him in this spot once. He only played 24 minutes but scored 24 real points en route to 30+ fantasy points. Now that we know Wall can play 35 minutes, this is an utter smash spot. Victor Oladipo being out just adds to that since Wall boasts a 34.8% usage rate and a 1.20 FPPM. Wall will be happy to show up Russell Westbrook if he’s on the sidelines tonight as well. 

Kendrick Nunn ($5,600 DK/$5,500 FD) – He’ll be likelier for me on FD, but Nunn hasn’t seen his price rise enough for what is being asked from him yet. With Dragic still on the shelf, Nunn has been playing a ton and has 33, 41 and 34 minutes played in the last three. Even with Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro around, Nunn has still carved out a 0.87 FPPM with Dragic off the floor. The usage is just under 24% and when we get this amount of minutes behind that usage, we should be interested. Getting the Clippers on a back to back won’t hurt either. 

Honorable Mention – Malcolm Brogdon, Tyrese Haliburton 

Shooting Guard 

James Harden ($10,700 DK/$10,600 FD) – I would suspect that Harden will be a very popular player tonight and with good reason. Kyrie may well be the primary ball scorer, but Harden is the primary ball-handler and his assist have been off the charts with the Nets. He’s only had two games where he hasn’t hit double-digits in assists and this game is set to be played at warp speed. As of this writing, he’s the highest priority and about the safest bet for 60 fantasy points tonight. 

Bradley Beal ($8,900 DK/$9,800 FD) – This is the man that could throw a wrench into just locking in Kyrie and Harden. Beal may be without Russell Westbrook, as the Wizards are on a back to back. Westy has not played a back to back yet, and the DK price is crazy. On FD, it might be a little tougher to spend so much on the SG position. It will still be interesting to see how things come together. When Westy is off the floor, Beal has a 40% usage rate and a 1.60 FPPM. For context, Luka is at a 35.3% rate and Giannis is at 32.5%. Beal is $8,900. I prefer Beal to Kyrie to pair with Harden on DK and won’t think twice about it. 

Eric Gordon ($6,400 DK/$6,200 FD) – A natural fit in FD especially, Gordon will be back for more after posting 40 fantasy points on both sites. Scoring 24 real points is always a good start, especially when you go 1-7 from beyond the arc. He also sports the second-highest usage rate on the team when Dipo is off the floor to go with a 1.07 FPPM. We have a game between two teams that are second and ninth in pace, and you can sign me all the way up if he fits the budget. 

Honorable Mention – Donovan Mitchell, Jordan Clarkson (only one, and Clarkson is too cheap on FD. My likeliest path is Harden and Clarkson on FD, as sad as I would be to leave off Beal). 

Small Forward 

Jimmy Butler ($8,200 DK/$8,900 FD) – There are some factors to consider here before we go looking to put Butler in lineups. The first is the status of Kawhi Leonard. If he’s back for the Clippers (I suspect he just sat the front end against the Cavs to be ready for this game), I’d probably fade Butler. It’s not a diss at Jimmy Buckets, but he’s priced high and I don’t want to go against Klaw defense all night. If Kawhi is actually hurt and doesn’t play, Butler gets a lot more interesting. He had a bit of a down game last time out but he’s also flirted with a triple-double almost every single game since coming back from Covid. That’s quite impressive and Butler can put up close to 50 FD with under 15 real points scored. 

Joe Ingles ($5,700 DK/$4,900 FD) – Ingles is still pretty underpriced on FD, my preferred site for him tonight. I do have to point out he’s not as automatic as he was last year, but that’s in part because Mitchell has been so good this season. Still, he has a 0.95 FPPM without Conley on the floor and the Philly defense is going to be focused on Mitchell. There is a fun little narrative about Ben Simmons and Donovan Mitchell dating back to Simmons winning rookie of the year over Mitchell, despite being drafted a year ahead of him. That’s for GPP’s though and Ingles is going to play over 30 minutes and distribute the ball. That’s all we need at $4,900 in this spot. 

Danilo Gallinari ($4,900 DK/$4,500 FD) – Sometimes a pick can be uncomfortable but the numbers tell us it’s the right move. Gallo is that play tonight since he’s been tough to peg since coming back. The Knicks playing at the slowest pace doesn’t help, but Gallo sports a 24.7% usage rate across 206 minutes with Bogdan Bogdanovic off the floor. That’s to go along with a 0.85 FPPM and the salary is so low, we have to consider him to some extent. I’ll be interested to see if the field goes to him after a big game. 

Honorable Mention – Harrison Barnes, Doug McDermott

Power Forward 

Domantas Sabonis ($9,100 DK/$9,600 FD) – This is among my favorite spots of the night, and I really wish there was a way to fit Harden/Beal/Sabonis. Considering that would leave us $4,200 on DK, I doubt that’s possible. Maybe it’s easier to get him with Harden and another stud on FD because Sabonis should go nuclear in this spot. Chicago is 20th in paint points allowed and 22nd in rebounding. Sabonis has nobody on Chicago that’s going to stop him and rocks a 1.30 FPPM with a 26.7% usage rate without Oladipo this year. 

Draymond Green ($6,700 DK/$7,400 FD) – This seems like quite the bounce-back spot for Green. The Warriors got totally wrecked last game, but the Cavs aren’t very good and are coming off a game last night. Dray is sporting a 44.1% true shooting rate and a 12.8% usage but still has a 1.05 FPPM. He’s going to fall into stats in this game and it should be close. 

Nerlens Noel ($4,400 DK/$4,800 FD) – I would expect Noel to be extreme chalk on FD, and popular on DK even though he’s only center eligible. Is he anything special? Not at all, but Thibs threw him out there for 32 minutes in the last game. Noel has a 0.89 FPPM with Robinson on the court and even in a not-so-great spot with Atlanta, I’m still very interested. The Hawks are fifth in rebounding and seventh in paint points allowed, but 32 minutes is too much to pass up. 

Honorable Mention – Julius Randle, Jarrett Allen (massive priority if Drummond would happen to be out), Jeff Green (if starting, and I think he will)

Center 

Clint Capela ($7,400 DK/$7,800 FD) – The minutes are a little scary here for Capela as he hasn’t topped 29 since the third of this month. While that is an issue, he can also put up monster games in a hurry. Noel is not a good defender and the rebounding and paint defense take a hit with no Robinson in the lineup. Capela is actually right next to Trae Young in FPPM at 1.32 (Young has 1.34) and the price is back down to under $8,000. I don’t think he’ll be a giant priority for me and center is really weird today. There’s not a lot of prime options, driving the chalk even more to Noel on DK. FD is going to be more of a puzzle right now. 

Richaun Holmes ($6,000 DK/$6,400 FD) – It’s a tougher slate for center and we have a solid one against Brooklyn, so this is easy math. Holmes is quietly one of the most active players in the paint in the league since he’s in the top 20 in paint touches and top 12 in paint points scored per game. Brooklyn is dead last in paint points allowed and just 13th in rebounding. I rarely turn my attention to Holmes, but this slate is perfect for him.

DeAndre Jordan ($4,500 DK/$5,400 FD) – On the flip side of this game, Sacramento is not much better guarding the paint. They are 26th in points allowed and 22nd in rebounding, which is in the DJ wheelhouse. He can catch 2-3 lobs from Harden, one dunk on his own, and a couple of free throws and fall into a double-double. The two center approach on DK with DJ and Noel is pretty interesting since you can get it done for under $9,000 and spend up on Harden, Beal, etc…. and that may be the route I explore. 

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