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NBA dfs

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 11/10

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Despite only eight teams taking the court tonight, there is no shortage of intriguing storylines. There is plenty of star power available to us, but we’ll need value plays to get exposure to them. Luckily, five of eight teams are on back-to-backs, making this NBA slate one that can turn on a dime. It’s a Thirsty Thursday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

As mentioned above, five of eight teams are on the second half of a back-to-back. Injury reports will be interesting to monitor throughout the day. Thus, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Dallas Mavericks @ Washington Wizards (+4)

Dallas Mavericks (-4)

If you are able to fit Luka Doncic into your lineups without feeling uneasy about the remaining players, do it. A leading candidate to be a MVP this year, if not soon enough, Doncic has been simply outstanding this season. Sporting a league-high 39.5% usage rate on the year, no one carries their team’s offense the way Doncic does. Last night was the first time he hadn’t scored 30 or more points through his first ten games and it took a 9-for-29 shooting performance to do so. Averaging 34.8/8.2/8.1 on 49.8% shooting, there is no stronger candidate to lead the NBA slate in scoring.

Washington Wizards (+4)

With Bradley Beal in health and safety protocols, the Wizards offense will run through Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma. Unfortunately, with the Mavericks sitting dead last in the NBA in pace, there isn’t much appeal here. Monte Morris will form a trio with the others to log the bulk of the minutes in the starting lineup. Meanwhile, the bench unit will be led by Rui Hachimura, Will Barton, and Jordan Goodwin. With the Wizards sitting 26th in pace themselves, this is far and away the worst game environment on the slate and I won’t hesitate to fade it, outside of Luka Doncic.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Atlanta Hawks (-1.5)

Philadelphia 76ers (+1.5)

No doubt about it, Joel Embiid is the priority of the NBA slate not named Luka Doncic. Not only does he offer a sizeable advantage at a scarce position, but he is also in a premium spot. In his lone appearance without James Harden in the lineup this season, Embiid carried a lofty 37.4% usage rate while posting a 33/10/5 scoring line agains the Suns. Tonight, with the Hawks battling issues with their frontcourt, Embiid will not only aim to get Clint Capela in foul trouble, but consequently dominate Onyeka Okongwu on the inside.

Atlanta Hawks (-1.5)

With many options at the top of the pricing grid tonight, the duo of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray will likely find themselves behind the 8-ball. While Young carries a sizeable advantage in usage rate over his backcourt partner, it’s been Murray’s dominance on the glass and in the assist column that has been notable to his fantasy performances. Both have the ceiling to make this an interesting slate, but they’ll need to outscore the likes of Embiid, Lillard, and contend with Doncic. With the 76ers ranking 1st in the NBA versus opposing primary ball handlers, I’m likely out on Young, but I’ll provide an update on this offense in Discord, depending on how the slate shakes out closer to lock.

Portland Trail Blazers @ New Orleans Pelicans (-6.5)

Portland Trail Blazers (+6.5)

Missing Jusuf Nurkic (adductor), Jerami Grant (ankle), and Keon Johnson (hip) last night, the Trail Blazers’ injury report will be one to monitor leading up to lock. Additionally, Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons, and Josh Hart were all listed as probable ahead of last night’s matchup. Should everyone be healthy and available, Damian Lillard is in a prime spot as a pivot to Luka Doncic at the top of the pricing grid. With the Pelicans sitting 24th in the NBA to opposing primary ball handlers, Dame will be able to exploit to Pelicans backcourt on the offensive side of the ball. Sporting a 32% usage rate on the season, Lillard has posted a 29/4.5/4.8 scoring line on 47.7% shooting, including nearly four 3-pointers made per game.

New Orleans Pelicans (-6.5)

With few options at the center position tongiht aside from Joel Embiid, Jonas Valanciunas is an interesting target in tournaments. Surely, should Nurkic miss a second straight game, the field will flock to Drew Eubanks. However, should Nurkic return to the lineup, that won’t be the case. Either way, Valanciunas is in an elite matchup. His minutes have been inconsistent this season, but Valanciunas is averaging a 14.4/10.3 double-double in under 25 minutes per game. With the Blazers ranking 23rd in the NBA to opposing big men, including allowing Mason Plumlee to drop 16/12/4 on them last night, the Pelicans need to utilize Valanciunas on the inside early and often.

Honorable Mention:

Charlotte Hornets @ Miami Heat (-10)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 11/09

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

After a day off yesterday, the majority of NBA teams are back in action tonight. While many players sat out on Monday night, most were for precautionary reasons. Now, with everyone having the day off yesterday, we’re likely to see healthy rotations tonight and consequently, a larger player pool. It’s a Wet Wednesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

With 26 of the league’s 30 teams in action tonight, the slate can change at any given time. Since everyone was off yesterday, some news has already trickled in while we await availability confirmation of some of the league’s best. Thus, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Charlotte Hornets (+5)

Portland Trail Blazers (-5)

We’ll have to wait until the final injury report comes out, but there is plenty to like about the Blazers offense in this one. With four of five starters listed as probable, we’re likely to see a healthy rotation here. However, this is the NBA, and anything can change in the blink of an eye. Even with the return of Damian Lillard last game, Anfernee Simons led the team in usage with a whopping 37.3% rate. Consequently, Simons led the team in both points and field goal attempts. With Terry Rozier having a team-worst 114.8 defensive rating, Simons can be an unrostered gem for us tonight.

Charlotte Hornets (+5)

With a slightly improved Portland defense remains a constant: Jusuf Nurkic is a defensive liability. The Trail Blazers have lacked interior defense for quite some time, and this season is no different. Specifically, Portland ranks 26th in the NBA to opposing small ball centers, which bodes well for PJ Washington. Having Mason Plumlee log 30 minutes or more in only two of eleven appearances, the Hornets are quick to shift Washington to the ‘5’ and use Jalen McDaniels in favor of Plumlee. In 6 games where he has logged 30 minutes or more, Washington has scored 17 points or in five of six.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Chicago Bulls (+2)

New Orleans Pelicans (-2)

If you are looking for an under-appreciated game stack on this NBA slate, this is it. Not only are there plenty of elite offensive options here, but no one is in the upper range of the pricing grid. With Zach Lavine presumably making his return, I’m looking at his matchup on the other side of the ball in Brandon Ingram. Since returning to the lineup, Ingram leads the team in usage rate at 28.4%. In those three games, Ingram has also led the team in minutes, scoring, assists, and field goal attempts. With a 7’3″ wingspan, Ingram has a notable advantage over Lavine off the ball and will be relied upon to create offense consistently.

Chicago Bulls (+2)

There are different ways to get exposure to this offense tonight. Firstly, Nikola Vucevic gets a favorable matchup with the Pelicans ranking 21st in the NBA in points allowed in the paint per game. As a result of Jonas Valanciunas playing less in favor of Zion Williamson at the ‘5’ and Trey Murphy III checking in to help the team’s perimeter defense, New Orleans is weaker on the inside down the stretch. Second, is none other than Zach Lavine, who we discussed above. Ideally, you want to avoid DeMar DeRozan lining up on Herbert Jones, leaving Lavine to get the switches he loves in an isolation offense to get off Ingram and onto CJ McCollum, who has a 112.8 defensive rating. Lastly, the Bulls’ bench unit of Goran Dragic, Javonte Green, and Alex Caruso will dominate the Pelicans’ bench unit, but minutes will be limited, capping their upside.

Memphis Grizzlies @ San Antonio Spurs (+6)

Memphis Grizzlies (-6)

Should Steven Adams (ankle) miss a second straight game, the Grizzlies rotation gets awfully thin. Thus, Ja Morant is in a prime spot to be a surprising contender to lead the NBA slate in scoring. With most presumably flocking to Giannis Antetokounmpo if Jrue Holiday (ankle) misses their game versus OKC, Morant will be rostered at a lower rate than he should be. Not only does the matchup against a Spurs team that ranks 26th versus primary ball handlers entice us, but the game environment does. The Spurs are shockingly 3rd in the league in pace while sitting dead last in defensive rating. This is truly an elite game environment, and Morant’s upside will be on full display. Coming into tonight with a 28.5/5.7/7.1 scoring line through a 36.2% usage rate on 47.5% shooting, including 45.7% from deep, Morant can alter this slate in a massive way.

San Antonio Spurs (+6)

Despite this being a mismatch on paper, Vegas has this game staying close. Not only do I agree because of how surprisingly good the Spurs have performed, but because of how inconsistent the Grizzlies have been. Forever known for their defense, Memphis sits 23rd in the NBA in defensive rating. Notably, the Grizzlies have been exposed in the backcourt. With Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Dillon Brooks all carrying defensive ratings of 114 or worse, there is plenty to like here. Both Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell make for excellent plays on this slate. The two have the benefit of the matchups detailed above on the wing and in the backcourt, respectively. Leading the team with usages rates of 27.5% and 25.3%, respectively, Johnson and Vassell have combined for 44.5 PPG on over 32 field goal attempts per game.

Honorable Mentions:

Denver Nuggets @ Indiana Pacers (+5.5)
Utah Jazz @ Atlanta Hawks (-4)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 11/07

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Numerous teams take the floor tonight with concerns to be addressed. Injuries are plentiful to begin the NBA season, shifting slates at the blink of an eye. Tonight, some back-to-backs are at the forefront of the player pool, while two elite game environments make for excellent pivots in tournaments. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

On a large NBA slate, injury report updates are likely to be lengthly and frequent throughout the day. Thus, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Houston Rockets @ Orlando Magic (-4.5)

Houston Rockets (+4.5)

The rebuilding Rockets continue to be a bargain on NBA slates. Despite the offense running through their backcourt tandem, my priority here is Alperen Sengun. Averaging over 1.3 DK points per minute, Sengun is amongst the most productive players on a per minute basis. Facing an Orlando Magic frontcourt that allows nearly 50 points in the paint per game, Sengun is far and away one of the best targets in the mid range of the pricing grid.

Orlando Magic (-4.5)

With Markelle Fultz, Cole Anthony, Gary Harris, Jonathan Isaac and Mo Wagner all on the shelf, this is one of the thinnest rotations in the NBA. Impressive is his rookie campaign thus far, Paolo Banchero leads his team with a 29.6% usage rate while posting a 22.9/8.5/3.6 scoring line on 45.8% shooting. However, his point/dollar upside is limited on such a large slate. Thus, I’ll be turning to the wings once again in Franz Wagner and/or Bol Bol. The two carry usage rates of 24.2% and 15.4% in the last five games, respectively. In that stretch, since Bol Bol has entered the starting lineup, the two have combined for 32.2 points per game. Against a Rockets team that ranks 28th in the league versus wings, the two have phenomenal matchups in an elite game environment.

Washington Wizards @ Charlotte Hornets (-3)

Washington Wizards (+3)

With the Wizards on the second half of a back-to-back, their injury report can dictate the NBA slate. Already without Bradley Beal, who is in healthy and safety protocols, the Wizards offense have one of, if not the best situation on the slate. Now, with Beal likely out for a second straight game, usage gets more condensed and there are two primary benefactors. The duo of Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma are both in advantageous situations in their respective matchups. The former lines up on Mason Plumlee, who carries a defensive rating of 110.4, while the Hornets frontcourt collectively ranks 29th in the league versus opposing big men. Meanwhile, the latter has a favorable matchup of his own; Kelly Oubre Jr. shifts to the ‘3’ with Terry Rozier back in the lineup, while having a defensive rating of 111.2 on the season.

Charlotte Hornets (-3)

Making his return to the lineup last game after a lengthly absence, Terry Rozier picked up right where he left off. Despite the losing effort against Brooklyn, Rozier led the team in usage, minutes played, scoring, and field goal attempts. Taking 24 shots on the night, Rozier took a whopping 14 from behind the arc, shooting 37.5% from the field and 42.9% from deep. With the Wizards ranking last in the NBA in opponent three-point field goal percentage allowed, Rozier will have the green light to take as many shots as it takes to get the win and makes for an excellent pivot to a guard mentioned below.

Toronto Raptors @ Chicago Bulls (-3.5)

Toronto Raptors (+3.5)

The reason the two games above highlighted targets in the mid range of the player pool is because the field will flock in this direction. With Pascal Siakam (groin) is slated to miss the next two weeks, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, and Scottie Barnes will be popular on every NBA slate featuring the Raptors. Tonight, Toronto takes on Chicago on the second half of a back-to-back, where the trio will be tasked with heavy minutes once again. There is simply no need for an explanation as to why all three are in play, but they will be some of the most rostered players in the field. Moreover, Coach Nick Nurse refuses to go deep into his rotation, whether it’s a regular season game in November or Game 7 of the NBA Finals. Thus, add Christian Koloko to the players whom will garner the interest of the field.

Chicago Bulls (-3.5)

With Zach Lavine (knee) missing last night’s game, his status for tonight will dictate interest in the Bulls roster. Truth be told, while both Nikola Vucevic and DeMar DeRozan will see increased looks on offense should Lavine sit once again, I don’t think I’ll get there on such a large NBA slate. Thus, should Lavine miss a second straight game, I’ll turn to the Chicago rotation pieces in Caruso, Green, Williams, and Dragic. Again, this is only if not only Lavine is out, but Coby White (quad) as well. Check Discord for updates.

Honorable Mentions:

Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors (-7.5)
LA Lakers @ Utah Jazz (-3)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 11/03

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Tonight makes for an interesting NBA slate. With only four teams in action, the majority of the field will want to go a similar direction. Multiple elite talents, young stars in the making, and two mismatches on paper will have this be our craziest slate of the season thus far. It’s a Thirsty Thursday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

With only two games on the schedule tonight, a single injury or lineup change can shift the NBA slate drastically. Thus, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Golden State Warriors @ Orlando Magic (+8)

Golden State Warriors (-8)

Rather than diving into individual statistics, I’ll be discussing different strategies surrounding all four teams on this NBA slate. Beginning with the Warriors, it’s simple: are you playing Steph Curry or not? You certainly cannot go wrong here with the reigning Finals MVP, as he is clearly producing in all facets of the game. However, should you fade him, you’ll need exposure to this offense in the form of Andrew Wiggins, Klay Thompson, or Jordan Poole. Wiggins posted 20+ points for the first time in his last five games the other night, while Poole has been inconsistent with the number of looks he gets. Meanwhile, Thompson has logged 30 or more minutes in back-to-back appearances, attempting 19 three-pointers along the way. Obviously, Curry is the clear top dog here for me, followed by Poole, Thompson, and Wiggins, in that order.

Orlando Magic (+8)

The Magic will dictate this NBA slate. Given the numerous options they provide us in the mid range, there are a few possibilities to entertain. The first is with Wendell Carter Jr. The reason I mention him first is because he is the logical pivot to Nikola Jokic at the center position. By no means is he expected to match his counterpart’s output, but WCJ offers more flexibility with your build. Second, the duo of Franz Wagner and Bol Bol. While the latter has been a focal point in previous articles and remains to be rostered at a much lower rate than he should, this is a matchup where he could find himself lagging behind in transition. While I’ll still entertain the possibility of playing Bol, I’ll be taking a long look at Wagner, who has assumed the responsibility of being one of the primary ball handlers with Cole Anthony and Markelle Fultz sidelined. Paolo Banchero is the odd man out for me here, but I won’t fault you for prioritizing him given his safe floor.

Denver Nuggets @ OKC Thunder (+6)

Denver Nuggets (-6)

With Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray back in the lineup, I’m taking a stance on fading Nikola Jokic tonight. While the back-to-back NBA MVP can surely lead any slate in scoring, he caps the upside of your lineup structure. Thus, I’ll be turning to the two secondary options on offense. MPJ has scored 15 or more points in every game this season, making his way back to form. Meanwhile, Murray can be an x-factor on this slate. The former Kentucky Wildcat logged 30 minutes for the first time this season in his last game and took a season-high 21 shots. With the Thunder on a thin rotation, this can be a primary spot for the two to continue to get shots up in a winnable game, without Jokic having to carry them on offense.

OKC Thunder (+6)

If you’re not playing Curry tonight, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the stud you want. While he is likely to be the least popular option of the three options at the top of the pricing grid, SGA offers just as much upside as anyone right now. Additionally, the field will flock to the value on the OKC side of things, leaving SGA as the odd man out. The frontcourt of Robinson-Earl, Pokusevski, Jalen Williams, and Bazley all figure to be in consideration. Be sure to check our projections to see where they rank leading up to lock.

NBA DFS stud rankings based on lineup structure:

Steph Curry
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Nikola Jokic

NBA DFS scenarios based on lineup structure:

If fading Jokic, look to Murray and/or Porter Jr.
If fading Curry, look to the trio of Poole, Thompson, Wiggins
Orlando mid range targets listed above
OKC value options

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 11/02

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Back to a full set of games on this beautiful Wednesday. Multiple teams are on back-to-backs tonight, making some scenarios particularly interesting. Additionally, some elite game environments are on this NBA slate, especially in the Western Conference. It’s a Wet Wednesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Eleven games are on tap tonight, meaning there will be plenty of injury news to follow. Some players have already been ruled out, but with multiple back-to-backs on this slate, there will be more to follow. Be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Charlotte Hornets @ Chicago Bulls (-5.5)

Charlotte Hornets (+5.5)

With LaMelo Ball (ankle) out and Terry Rozier (ankle) doubtful to play, the Hornets are a primary source of mid range value on tonight’s NBA slate. With the Bulls’ struggles against three-point shooting and on the wing, Kelly Oubre Jr. fits this matchup to a tee. Leading the team with a 26.7% usage rate with Rozier out of the lineup, Oubre Jr. has posted a 17.4/5.6/1.6 scoring line on 38.8% shooting. Additionally, he leads the team with 2.6 three-pointers made per contest during that stretch on nearly eight attempts per night. Should value be scarce on this NBA slate, Oubre Jr. will be a popular option in an elite game environment.

Chicago Bulls (-5.5)

On the second half of a back-to-back, the Bulls are in an elite game environment. Zach Lavine (rest) has already been ruled out for this one, meaning DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic will carry the load on offense. In three games without Lavine this season, DeRozan carries a team-high 32% usage rate. Leading the charge with a remarkable 34/4.3/5.3 scoring line on 55.4% shooting in these same three games, DeRozan has a cakewalk of a matchup versus Gordon Hayward on the wing, who carries a 113.6 defensive rating.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Portland Trail Blazers (+4)

Memphis Grizzlies (-4)

Even if Desmond Bane (ankle) returns to the lineup tonight, it’s all systems go on Ja Morant. On a large NBA slate with plenty of studs, it’s Morant who finds himself in the best matchup in the best game environment. With Damian Lillard (calf) ruled out for tonight’s contest, Morant will be lined up on Anfernee Simons, who carries a 113.5 defensive rating. Coming into tonight, Morant has averaged 33.3/4.5/6.3 on 55% shooting while carrying a 34.8% usage rate. With 20 or more points in all six games he’s played this season, including 30 or more in four of six, Morant is one of the best options at the top of the pricing grid.

Portland Trail Blazers (+4)

A ridiculed offseason had most believing the Trail Blazers were destined for the draft lottery, potentially losing Damian Lillard in the process. Now six games into their NBA season, Portland sits atop the Western Conference at 5-1 and have the second-best record in the league. Tonight, they face a Memphis team that ranks last in defensive rating. With Lillard (calf) missing this one, look for Anfernee Simons to carry the load on offense. In his lone appearance with Lillard out of the lineup, Simons dropped 30/5/7 on the Rockets, finishing second on the team with a 27.1% usage rate. While Ja Morant is a tremendous offensive talent, he ranks as one of the worst defenders in the league with a 122 defensive rating, paving the way for a backcourt of Simons and Sharpe to do significant damage.

Honorable Mentions:

Sacramento Kings @ Miami Heat (-6.5)
New Orleans Pelicans @ LA Lakers (+3.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 11/01

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

While most of the teams in action tonight have gotten off to slow starts, many are still contenders for an NBA championship. Only a handful of games into the season, there is no reason to panic for most, but these teams need to get it going on both ends on the court sooner rather than later. Competitive game environments, plenty of stars, and interconference battles headline tonight’s matchups. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

With smaller NBA slates comes a greater challenge. As much as we want to play many of the elite players, value is needed to do so. However, thanks to the plethora of injury news in the early stages of the season, it will likely be possible as we get closer to lock. Be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Chicago Bulls @ Brooklyn Nets (-1.5)

Chicago Bulls (+1.5)

With Andre Drummond (shoulder) being ruled out for tonight’s game, in addition to both Ayo Dosunmu (chest) and Coby White (quad) being listed as questionable, the Bulls rotation is getting thin. Thus, there is plenty of mid range value to be had with DeMar DeRozan, Zach Lavine, and Nikola Vucevic. My attention will turn to Vucevic in this matchup. Not only does he have a massive advantage on the inside, but his backup center is out for this game. Vucevic has a modest 23.5% usage rate on the season, but has posted three double-doubles in seven games thus far. In those matchups, Vucevic has averaged a whopping 19.67 rebounds. With Brooklyn sitting last in the NBA in rebounding, including an abysmal 63.7% defensive rebounding rate, Vuc will dominate the paint on both ends of the floor.

Brooklyn Nets (-1.5)

Truthfully, I’m not forcing any Brooklyn exposure into my NBA lineups until we see their final injury report. Having sat out the frontend of a back-to-back last night, Ben Simmons makes his return to the lineup tonight. Moreover, we may see one of Kyrie Irving or Kevin Durant potentially rest in this one. With other studs in the next game being a bigger priority if both Nets stars play, this is a wait-and-see situation.

Orlando Magic @ OKC Thunder (-4)

Orlando Magic (+4)

Should Jalen Suggs (ankle) be ruled out for a sixth consecutive contest to open the NBA season, the Magic will be once again operating their offense without a true point guard. It’s been a fun lineup to watch, as the quartet of Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Bol Bol, and Wendell Carter Jr. are all over 6’10”. Their length and size advantage is notable, especially on the wings. Thus, while Banchero will continue to be the primary option on offense, I’ll keep riding with Bol Bol and/or Wendell Carter Jr.

The former has started two games for the Magic, logging 28.5 minutes per contest and posting a 13.5/9 scoring line. The latter draws a favorable matchup in the paint on both ends of the floor. OKC ranks last in the NBA to opposing big men, including being 23rd in points allowed in the paint, where WCJ draws nearly six paint touches per night.

OKC Thunder (-4)

All – and I mean all – of my NBA lineups tonight will start with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. On a small slate, we need to plant our flag somewhere, and I’m riding with my fellow Canadian tonight. With Josh Giddey (ankle) ruled out for a fourth consecutive game, it’s all SGA on offense tonight. Despite missing the Robin to their Batman, OKC has won their last three games without Giddey, including victories over Dallas and back-to-back against the Clippers. In these last three, SGA paces his squad with a 33.3% usage rate, posting a 31.7/5.3/7.7 scoring line on 50% shooting.

Honorable Mentions:

Golden State Warriors @ Miami Heat (-1)
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Phoenix Suns (-5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 10/31

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

The first weeks of the NBA season have been wildly entertaining. While some teams are struggling in the early stages, others are quickly separating themselves from the pack. Tonight, the Milwaukee Bucks put their perfect record on the line, while others look to keep pace in the East. The Western Conference teams have a ton of pending injury news, but shape up to be some of the best scenarios on the slate. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Despite the NBA season only being a few weeks old, injury/illness news has been altering slates. In order to keep up, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Sacramento Kings @ Charlotte Hornets (+1)

Sacramento Kings (-1)

No longer one of the winless teams in the NBA, the Kings look to string some momentum together against a thin rotation. With LaMelo Ball out and Terry Rozier doubtful, De’Aaron Fox will see Dennis Smith Jr. on the flipside of his matchup. Sitting 20th in the league against primary ball handlers, the Hornets will look to slow Fox down, which is a daunting task. The former Kentucky Wildcat is having a tremendous season to the tune of a 27.8/7.2/5.6 scoring line on 55% shooting. Scoring 26 or more in four of five games this season, with the outlier coming against Miami’s stingy defense, Fox is in a prime spot in an elite game environment.

Charlotte Hornets (+1)

Somehow sitting at 3-3, the Hornets are doing the best they can without LaMelo Ball to start the season. With wins against the Hawks and Warriors, Charlotte can go with the best of them. With the Kings sitting 26th in the NBA in defensive rating, their weakest point comes on the wing. Surprisingly, Harrison Barnes carries a net defensive rating of 119.1 into tonight’s game, which bodes well for Kelly Oubre Jr. Leading the Hornets in usage rate over the last four games in Rozier’s absence, Oubre Jr. has posted a 17.8/6/1.5 scoring line on a mere 37.5% shooting during that span. Taking 16 or more attempts in all four games, Oubre Jr. carries a low floor, but finds himself in a situation to have a great outing should his shot be dropping.

Indiana Pacers @ Brooklyn Nets (-8)

Indiana Pacers (+8)

We talked about this game over the weekend in Discord and I’m going right back to the well. The return of Myles Turner to the lineup shifts things a bit, but Haliburton, Mathurin, and Smith remain firmly in play alongside the big man. However, I want to emphasize just how good Buddy Hield has been this season. Having a 21.5% usage rate as a spot-up shooter is impressive as is, but Hield is doing so much more than prior years on the offensive side of the ball. His 5.7 rebounds per game in the small sample size is a career high, while his shooting has been as good as ever. Sitting third in the NBA with 4.1 three pointers made per game, Hield has shot a ridiculous 44.6% from behind the arc on over nine attempts per contest.

Brooklyn Nets (-8)

It will be a recurring theme this NBA season when discussing the Nets, but there’s a handful of players that interest me on this offense, if that. Both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant dominate many of the looks on the offensive side of the ball, making it hard to look elsewhere. I’m certainly not forcing any exposure to this Nets team, but if you’re stacking this one, I’ll side with Durant. While he got off to a slow start last game, KD poured in 22 of his team’s 54 points in the second half. With the easiest matchup on the Nets, KD makes for an intriguing tournament play once again.

Atlanta Hawks @ Toronto Raptors (-3.5)

Atlanta Hawks (+3.5)

In order to beat Toronto’s defense, you need to be quicker than them both with the ball and off it. Players need to be in movement and the ball needs to be moved around the perimeter to the wings and corners. The Raptors excel at closing out on shooters and have great on-ball defense, making it tough for primary ball handlers to succeed. Rather, it’s the spot-up shooters and primary off-ball options who flourish in this matchup. Cue Dejounte Murray, who provides us with all around ability in this matchup. While his shooting is far from that of Trae Young, the former’s ability to rebound and dish the rock gives him a tremendous ceiling in any matchup.

Toronto Raptors (-3.5)

If you haven’t had a chance to watch Raptors basketball in recent years or this NBA season, please do. Not only are they fun to watch, but Toronto is one of the most feared teams on both sides of the basketball with their polarizing length at every position. Tonight, Pascal Siakam is the one I want to highlight. Leading the team with a 29.8% usage rate, Siakam has quietly posted a phenomenal 25.3/9.2/7.7 scoring line on 48.7% shooting. In a matchup versus the Hawks, Siakam and this Raptors offense will be a problem for their opposition’s defense in the transition game and on the inside. Seeing as though Clint Capela has yet to log over 30 minutes this season, Capela will likely be forced off the court early on in favor of Onyeka Okongwu, who has a defensive rating of 111.7 on the season, giving Siakam a favorable situation.

Honorable Mentions:

Memphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz (+4)
Houston Rockets @ LA Clippers (-9.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 10/27

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

After a big NBA slate yesterday, we’re back with eight teams in action tonight. Two of these game environments stand out above the rest, while the other two feature both injury news to follow and many star players. It’s a Thirsty Thursday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

On smaller NBA slates, a single injury or minutes restriction can alter the outlook. In order to keep up, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Dallas Mavericks @ Brooklyn Nets (-1)

Dallas Mavericks (+1)

This NBA slate is loaded with elite options at the guard position, and it starts with Luka Doncic at the very top. Currently sitting 19th in the league against primary ball handlers, the Nets perimeter defense will get all it can handle with Doncic tonight. The MVP candidate comes into this game sporting a league-high 41.3% usage rate while posting a phenomenal 34.7/9/7.7 scoring line on 50% shooting. While he is far and away the most expensive player on the slate, no one carries the upside that Doncic does. We’ll need some value to make this work with a smaller player pool, so be sure to keep up with the news.

Brooklyn Nets (-1)

While Kyrie Irving is another example of an elite play at the guard position, there’s another Brooklyn Net that catches me eye. No, it is not Kevin Durant, as he does not fit my lineup structure at the time of writing. Rather, it will be Nic Claxton. I wrote him up on Monday and he came through with a 16/7 scoring line despite the early foul trouble. Claxton seems to have cemented his role, not only in the starting lineup, but throughout the game’s entirety. Logging 33 and 34 minutes in back-to-back contests, Claxton has now scored 13 or more points in all three games this season, recording two double-doubles in the process. With the Mavericks sitting 20th in the NBA in points allowed in the paint per game, Claxton makes for a good midrange target in tournaments tonight.

LA Clippers @ OKC Thunder (+6.5)

LA Clippers (-6.5)

Despite Kawhi Leonard (knee) missing tonight’s game, the Clippers are planning to have Paul George (illness) back in the lineup. Thus, there is limited exposure I want here. Should George play in this one, one of few players I’d have interest in would be Ivica Zubac. While his minutes will fluctuate, Zubac will see extended run tonight in the absence of Marcus Morris Sr. (personal) from the lineup. Even with two games where he saw 24 or less minutes, Zubac has averaged 11.8 rebounds per game and gets to go up against a Thunder frontcourt that is seriously undermanned. With veterans Robert Covington, Nic Batum, and John Wall all being eased back into game shape, Zubac will be the main benefactor from the ball movement of this Clippers offense.

OKC Thunder (+6.5)

As if we didn’t have enough elite options at the guard position on this slate, cue Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. However, I’ll save you the trouble because I prefer the players discussed below. Rather, I’ll get my exposure to this Thunder offense in the form of SGA’s supporting cast. In the absence of Josh Giddey (ankle), yet another player from Monday’s article will be at the forefront of my focus. Tre Mann, despite SGA being active, looked tremendous on the offensive side of the ball. Pouring in 25 points on 41.7% shooting, Mann was no slouch next to the All-NBA talent. Rather, it was indeed Mann who led the team in shots, not SGA, while also sporting a 27.6% usage rate to SGA’s 29%. The two both logged 36 minutes, combining for 58 of the team’s 108 points in a landslide victory versus these same Clippers.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Sacramento Kings (+5)

Memphis Grizzlies (-5)

Although the guard position began with a Luka Doncic discussion, Ja Morant isn’t far off. Playing in the best game environment on a small NBA slate, Morant looks to take advantage of a turnover prone Sacramento offense. While the player below thrives in a fast-paced setting, so does Morant. His capability to push the pace and get the basket with ease will be on full display tonight. Now four games into the season, Morant has scored 20 or more points in every one, while posting a 35.3/4.3/7 scoring line on 54.8% shooting through a 35.9% usage rate.

Sacramento Kings (+5)

I surely hope he goes overlooked because of other guards on this slate because I’d love nothing more than to stack De’Aaron Fox with Ja Morant. My darkhorse for Most Improved Player of the Year, Fox finished last season on a torrid pace and has picked up right where he left off. Now three games into the campaign, Fox has scored 26 or more points in all three outings, including two 30-point performances. He sneakily has a 33.8% usage rate on the season, while posting a remarkable 31.7/5.7/7 scoring line on 59.4% shooting. While his counterpart, Ja Morant, makes for a great option on offense, he is a terrible defender. Thus, I plan on picking on Morant and his 122.6 net defensive rating with Fox.

Honorable Mention:

Miami Heat @ Golden State Warriors (-7)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 10/26

DFSGhost 3 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Now that most teams have a few games under their belt, players are starting to find their groove on both sides of the ball. Rookies continue adjusting to the pace of play, while veterans get back into form. Additionally, with the new and improved NBA schedule, teams will face off against one another multiple times over the same week or two to limit travelling. This scenario is highlighted below, amongst other game environments to target. It’s a Wet Wednesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Despite only being a week into the new season, injury news has been affecting NBA slates daily. In order to keep up, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Brooklyn Nets @ Milwaukee Bucks (-4)

Brooklyn Nets (+4)

Make no mistake about it: the Nets will only go as far as Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant can carry them. Last game, the two stars combined for over half of the team’s field goal attempts. Taking 44 shots out of 87 attempts, Kyrie and KD combined for 74 points of the team’s 124. However, the two each have a tough matchup tonight. KD will likely see a lot of Giannis, while Irving will see Jrue Holiday out on the perimeter. I lean the former in this spot, who will try to stay around the 3-point line and find the midrange, as he attempts to get Giannis to stay closer to the basket. Pacing the team in both usage rate and scoring, KD makes for an attractive tournament play on this NBA slate, if committing to this game.

Milwaukee Bucks (-4)

Playing at an MVP level in the early stages of the NBA season, Giannis Antetokounmpo has the best chance to lead the slate in scoring. Through two games, Giannis has averaged 32.5/12.5/5.5 on 70/3% shooting through a 34.6% usage rate. Not only has he been efficient, but he’s doing so at a historic rate. Last game, Giannis scored 44 points in only 28 minutes, making him the fifth player in league history to do so. In a matchup versus a Nets roster that ranks 25th in points allowed in the paint per game with 55.3 per contest, it’s all systems go on the Greek Freak.

Indiana Pacers @ Chicago Bulls (-7.5)

Indiana Pacers (+7.5)

Another NBA slate with the Pacers means I get to talk about Tyrese Haliburton once again. However, I’ll spare the long writeup as you already know I like the idea of playing him. Rather, my attention for this game will be on Buddy Hield. Being one of the best shooters in the league since arriving in 2016, Hield has largely gone under-appreciated. Despite a modest 22.1% usage rate, Hield sits fourth in the team in scoring. Additionally, the sharpshooter has taken over eight attempts from deep per contest, hitting at a 36.4% clip. Facing a Bulls team that currently ranks 28th in the NBA in 3-point field goal percentage allowed, Hield makes for an intriguing tournament play, should his shot be falling.

Chicago Bulls (-7.5)

With Zach Lavine making his return to the lineup last game, the Bulls offense is back in play. Still missing from the lineup is Lonzo Ball (knee), but that didn’t stop the team from putting up 120 points against one of the NBA’s best defenses in the Boston Celtics. In a matchup versus the Pacers, a primary target of mine will be Nikola Vucevic. In last game’s matchup versus a Celtics team that struggles on the interior without Robert Williams III, Vucevic led the team in usage rate, en route to an 18/23/5 scoring line on 36.8% shooting. Even with Lavine making his return, Vucevic managed to see 19 attempts from the field across 31 minutes. Versus a Pacers team that may be without Myles Turner (ankle) entirely, or at least on a limited basis, Vucevic will dominate the paint on both ends of the floor.

Houston Rockets @ Utah Jazz (-5.5)

Houston Rockets (+5.5)

Right back to the well with a game we discussed on Monday’s slate. While some were underwhelmed by the output, these two teams still combined for 222 points despite a 39-point first quarter. Needless to say, this game environment remains to be one of, if not the best on the NBA slate. I wrote up Jalen Green in this same matchup and he went for 25/3/3 on 56.3% shooting. Moreover, I highlighted the backcourt advantage both he and Kevin Porter Jr. hold over Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson. In addition to Green, Porter Jr. went for 26/10/4 on 42.1% shooting. While he likely won’t grab another ten rebounds, both are firmly in play.

Utah Jazz (-5.5)

Similarly to the Rockets writeup, I’m going back to the same Jazz players I wanted on Monday. Despite the modest output, Lauri Markkanen still finished second on the team in usage rate at 27.6%. Moreover, he shot an abysmal 7-for-19 from the field, leaving most of the field underwhelmed about his last performance. As a result, I’m hoping for a lower number of people rostering him, but that remains to be seen. Markkanen is in the same elite matchup against a defense that ranks 27th in net rating and he took a price drop on the salary grid.

Honorable Mentions:

Atlanta Hawks @ Detroit Pistons (+7)
San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves (-8.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

3 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 10/25

DFSGhost 3 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Back to a short NBA slate after plenty of teams were in action last night. Injury news awaits us, while a handful of players will be popular in the majority of lineups. Some situations are unavoidable given the injury news, while others may impact the slate closer to lock. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

The NBA is unlike any other sport from a DFS perspective, but with our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups, you’re right where you need to be to succeed. Be sure to join the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need to win.

Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Pelicans

Dallas Mavericks (-5.5)

There is no debate about Luka Doncic being the player with the most upside on this NBA slate. Leading the league in usage rate, Doncic has gotten off to a terrific start this season. Through two games, Doncic has posted back-to-back 30-point efforts on a 33.5/8/8 scoring line. Not only is he taking 23 field goal attempts per contest, but he is also averaging nearly ten 3PA. Shooting a remarkable 47.8% from the field, the volume has not affected his efficiency whatsoever. If you were with us last season, you know how much I love to play primary ball handlers versus the Pelicans. In three games this season, New Orleans has allowed Terry Rozier to drop 23/8/11 only to allow Jordan Clarkson to score 18 points on an inefficient 7-for-19 shooting. With Doncic being much more gifted offensively, the Pelicans are in trouble on the perimeter.

New Orleans Pelicans (+5.5)

With Brandon Ingram (concussion) out for tonight’s game, the trio of McCollum, Williamson, and Valanciunas are firmly in play. However, key news awaits us as Zion (hip) is listed as questionable after leaving last game after a scary fall on a dunk attempt. Should the Pelicans proceed with caution and rest him, it will be all systems go on Valanciunas and McCollum, but should all three play, my favorite is in the backcourt. Leading the team in both minutes played and scoring, McCollum will see an increase in assist rate tonight in the absence of Ingram, and potentially Williamson. The offense will shift from less isolation and ball movement will be key, playing right into McCollum’s hands for a great NBA DFS output.

LA Clippers @ OKC Thunder (+10)

LA Clippers (-10)

With both Paul George (illness) and Marcus Morris Sr. (personal) ruled out for tonight’s game, plenty of touches are available on offense. Under normal circumstances, Kawhi Leonard would be a stone cold lock on an NBA slate like this with George out, but the former’s minutes are still being monitored. Thus, John Wall and Norman Powell share the spotlight in my Clippers writeup. The former has carried a 32.3% usage rate through two games this season, leading the team. Flashing scoring upside off the bench, Wall gets a cakewalk of a matchup with both Gilgeous-Alexander and Giddey out tonight for the Thunder. On the other hand, Powell has struggled to find his shot thus far. Buying low on a high volume player is the goal here; his 25.9% from the field will turn the field away, but I Iove the spot for the Clippers wing.

OKC Thunder (+10)

Early in the NBA season, this rotation is as thin as it gets and we need to take advantage. The Thunder have already announced that both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (hip) and Josh Giddey (ankle) will be out tonight. While Lugentz Dort makes for a great play, the majority of the field will flock in his direction. However, my attention draws to a former Florida Gator. Tre Mann is now in his second season and will thrive in situations like this with the ball in his hands. He carries massive offensive upside and can create his own shot; a skill that is rare in young players. In a much larger sample size last season than the current one, with both SGA and Giddey off the floor, Mann saw a drastic increase in usage rate, from 22% to 28%, while also seeing his fantasy points per minute (FPPM) increase from 0.8 to 0.93.

Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns (-2.5)

Golden State Warriors (+2.5)

This game will largely go overlooked on tonight’s NBA slate. Despite three straight 30-point games to open with season, I can’t imagine the field rostering Steph Curry over Luka Doncic. However, with a true shooting of 66.1%, good for sixth in the league and second amongst guards, you know Curry can lead any slate in scoring with his 3-point shot. If you’re not going with Curry and insist on getting exposure to this game, there are two routes you can take. Either ride a hot hand in Andrew Wiggins, who gets an awfully tough matchup versus Mikal Bridges, or pick on Deandre Ayton in the paint with Kevon Looney or James Wiseman. My level of exposure to this game remains to be seen with pending injury news leading up to lock.

Phoenix Suns (-2.5)

With the Pelicans offense being a priority for me, I’m likely to pass on Devin Booker. However, depending on how injury news breaks, Chris Paul may find himself in my NBA lineups if the value is there to support it. After a rough season debut, CP3 improved his play over the last two games. Sitting seventh in the league in assist rate is no surprise to one of the best point guards to ever do it, but his scoring this late in his career is a cause for concern. While Paul will control the offensive flow, should this game be tight do the stretch, it will certainly be Booker taking shots over CP3.

Honorable Mention:

Detroit Pistons @ Washington Wizards (-5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

3 years ago 0 comments

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