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NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/5

We are back with another nine game slate in the association tonight, and where would we be without Ghost and the model? Three of the top six last night were Kent Bazemore, Juan Toscano-Anderson and Tyrese Maxey. We talked about those three on the stream and these three cost a combined $10,000. They scored a massive 83.2 DK points, good for an 8x return. The studs were tougher last night, but in the long run nailing that style of value will carry you to the promised land a lot of nights. Let’s get to this big slate and figure out the base work for it in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/5 to find the green!

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/5 Injury Report

Bulls – Otto Porter (O)

Magic – Aaron Gordon (O)

Raptors – OG Anunoby (O)

Cavaliers – Collin Sexton (Q), Larry Nance (O)

Hornets – Terry Rozier (Q), P.J. Washington (O)

Heat – Goran Dragic (Q)

Wolves – KAT (O), D’Angelo Russell (Q), Naz Reid (Q)

Thunder – SGA, Lu Dort, George Hill (O)

Suns – Jae Crowder (Q)

Celtics – Jaylen Brown (Q), Payton Pritchard (Q), Marcus Smart (O)

Clippers – Patrick Beverly (O)

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/5 Positions

Point Guard

Malcom Brogdon ($8,000 DK/$7,800 FD) – It’s hard not to love Brogdon here. He’s got a 28.1% usage rate and a 1.14 FPPM on the season, and gets a major pace-up spot with the fast running Pelicans. Lonzo Ball and Eric Bledsoe can’t defend him, and the Pelicans are 22nd in turnovers per game. Brogdon is eighth in steals per game which isn’t something we want to totally lean on, but it doesn’t hurt either. Considering he’s been a little quiet lately, the price has come down to a very appealing point. This doesn’t look like a position to spend on, so Brogdon carries a lot of safety and upside mixed in.

Kemba Walker ($6,500 DK/$5,700 FD) – Kemba could be very popular on FD, where he’s under $6,000. Here’s what is interesting – IF Jaylen Brown is out, Walker could be a massive bargain. Across the 43 minutes he’s played without Brown on the floor, Kemba has a 43.6% usage rate and a 1.53 FPPM. Taking Smart off the floor leaves Kemba with a 33 minute sample and a 1.68 FPPM. Even if Brown plays, Kemba is back up to 30 minutes a night and should see mostly Reggie Jackson defense. That’s a win for Kemba, especially if Jayson Tatum is facing Kawhi Leonard.

Theo Maledon ($5,000 DK/$4,800 FD) – Maledon will likely be one of the chalkiest plays on this slate after last time out. Not only are the Thunder still down players, Maledon played well with 28 DK across 35 minutes. That was with going 2-12 from the field, and now he gets a pace up spot against the Wolves and their eighth-fastest pace. Minnesota matches that with the 24th defensive rating, a perfect mix to pour in some points. Maledon has over 200 minutes without the players OKC is missing tonight, and rocks a 0.82 FPPM with just a 46.7% true shooting rate. Plug and play in cash.

Honorable Mention – Kyle Lowry, Cole Anthony

Shooting Guard

Donovan Mitchell ($7,700 DK/$7,800 FD) – This is a weird position tonight. James Harden and Bradley Beal are super pricey, while Fred VanVleet is priced up from the last game out. Mitchell is under $8,000 on both sites and is a safe, if not exactly spectacular option. The Hornets are giving up the third-highest three point frequency in the NBA, a nice boost for Mitchell. He’s over a 30% usage rate and even though he’s not high on my radar, he’s there nonetheless.

Norman Powell ($6,700 DK/$6,400 FD) – When we get a team as bad defensively as Brooklyn, we want some type of exposure to it. Powell is a lot cheaper than FVV, and he’s going to play a bunch of minutes. He only played 29 last game in a lopsided effort. Before that, Powell played 41, 10, 37 and 32 minutes. He has a very solid 21.1% usage rate and a 0.88 FPPM and with the Nets breakneck pace, he can rack up a ton of peripheral stats here. He’s not my absolute favorite Raptor, but he’s a great fit on FD especially.

Hamidou Diallo ($5,200 DK/$5,000 FD) – I’m tempted to just write DialloSZN and move on, but we’ll give it more than that. He managed to score almost 32 DK points on just 5-9 from the field, racking up nine boards and three steals. He also had six turnovers, so there is meat on the bone at this price. Diallo played 33 minutes and the matchup is better defensively tonight too. Houston is playing great defense since trading Harden, while the Wolves wouldn’t know defense if someone hit them in the face with a picket fence. He’s far too cheap for his 1.20 FPPM in the Thunder’s situation tonight.

Honorable Mention – Zach LaVine, Paul George, Anthony Edwards

Small Forward

Pascal Siakam ($7,600 DK/$8,900 FD) – Now we’ve hit my favorite Raptor, at least on DK. The FD price is a bit high for my taste and I would rather just play Powell. Siakam isn’t a major player in the paint, with about five paint touches per game. He’s been tough to figure out this year but the Nets are just getting abused in the interior. I fully expect Siakam to make advantage of that and he’s scoring about 3.6 points in the paint this year. He also carries a 15.2% frequency in post ups, and the Nets are the third-worst team in points per possession on that play type. Given the pace and extra opportunity, Siakam checks in as an excellent play tonight.

Jimmy Butler ($8,300 DK/$8,500 FD) – Buckets was fine last time out against Washington, if not a bit disappointing. He also took just 11 shots and still racked up 44 DK on just 19 real points. That’s a great sign, as is the 37 minutes. The other factor is the Heat need to start banking wins. They’ve had their Covid and injury issues, but they have a long road ahead to get back into the top half of the East. Butler leads the team with a 1.28 FPPM and given Washington’s pace and poor defense, he’s still a very nice fit around some of the OKC value plays.

Rui Hachimura ($5,400 DK/$5,000 FD) – Hachi is really mis-priced on FD and he’s playing a boatload of minutes lately. We’re upwards of 32 the past two games and he’s hit over 25 FD points in each game. Nothing is going to especially standout with a 19.5% usage rate and a 0.88 FPPM, but we don’t need it to at these prices. He’s back to double-digit shot attempts the past two games as well and is too cheap tonight.

Honorable Mention – Miles Bridges, Gordon Hayward

Power Forward

Domantas Sabonis ($8,600 DK/$8,800 FD) – Did both sites just agree to not raise up Sabonis in salary? He’s rolled up 54 FD points or more the past two games but he’s still under $9,000 on both sites. Zion Williamson has been awful defensively this season. As in, he actually got pulled off the floor on defense in a close game awful. New Orleans is 24th in paint points allowed and Sabonis is fifth in pain touches per game. This is a blow up spot for Sabonis and he only played 31 minutes last game. If he gets his full run, he’s going to destroy Zion, Steven Adams and whoever else is standing in his way.

This position is terrible tonight in my eyes. Look, surely you can play Giannis Antetokounmpo against the Cavs. We’re starting to see more consistent high-end games from Greek with 53 FD or more in five of his last six. I’d likely pass on Tatum with Kawhi on the other side, and Bam is pricey with the Heat healthy. I think the chalk on FD is Sabonis and Darius Bazley, so we could be looking at three Thunder in Maledon and Diallo as well. I don’t see the need to go four tonight, so limit yourself to three even though there is three write-ups plus Bazley. I will update this section in Discord if/when value opens up.

Center

Nikola Vucevic ($8,500 DK/$8,800 FD) – An underpriced Vuc in a smash spot? I guess you can twist my arm to play him. Chicago plays at the second-fastest pace in the league and Vuc continues to be well under $9,000. That’s despite his 32% usage rate, his 45 and 51 DK points the past two games and the fact he shot a combined 14-37 in those games. The Bulls are in the bottom 12 in rebounding and 16th in paint points. More important is the fact they don’t have the bodies to defend Vuc all over the floor. I’d be surprised if he’s not chalky in cash again. Center is a relatively weak position tonight on top of things.

Al Horford ($6,100 DK/$6,300 FD) – He’s not the biggest paint player in the league, but this is a mismatch down low for Horford. Even if Naz Reid plays, there’s no reason to shy away here. He’s at a 1.05 FPPM and Minnesota is 18th in rebounds and 17th in paint points allowed. Houston was a much more difficult matchup for Horford with Christian Wood on the other side, so I’m not sweating the mediocre return from last game. Horford is a good threat for a double-double tonight and his price is very reasonable. We don’t really need him on FD in my eyes. I’d rank Maledon, Bazley and Diallo ahead of him.

Honorable Mention – Rudy Gobert (very cheap on DK), Deandre Ayton

Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/5 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/1

We’re back with a big 10 game slate tonight and that is a lot of games to go over. We’ll have plenty of options to choose from and quite a bit of information to process. We have one of the biggest names in basketball in a smash spot and coming into this one in top form. Let’s figure out who we’re talking about and plenty more in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/1 and figure out where we’re heading!

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/1 Injury Report

Hawks – De’Andre Hunter (O), Trae Young (Q)

Hornets – Terry Rozier (Q)

Heat – Tyler Herro, Goran Dragic (Q)

Wolves – KAT (O), Naz Reid (Q)

Blazers – CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic, Derrick Jones Jr. (O)

Pelicans – Steven Adams (Q)

Thunder – George Hill (O)

Suns – Devin Booker (Q)

Grizzlies – Jonas Valanciunas, Jaren Jackson (O)

Nuggets – Gary Harris (Q)

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/1 Positions

Point Guard

De’Aaron Fox ($8,300 DK/$8,200 FD) – I don’t see it being a slate to spend all the way up on point guard as of now. The best option would be Damian Lillard, who is perfectly fine but not my highest priority. Fox is a player that jumps off the page. Sacramento plays at the 11th fastest pace in the league and New Orleans has been playing a lot faster lately, sixth over the past three weeks. This is the perfect spot for Fox to excel, since the Pelicans and Kings are bottom three in defensive rating over that same three-week time period. On the season, Fox has a usage rate over 30% and has a fantastic outlook in a shootout tonight.

Ja Morant ($7,600 DK/$7,800 FD) – Folks reading might not be too excited with this pick after Ja only put up 37 DK last game. Here’s the catch – he only played 28 minutes. The Grizzlies were a little careful with their franchise cornerstone but now that he’s got a game under him, look out. We like Morant again tonight for all the same reason as last time. The Spurs are quietly playing at a much faster pace than is traditional, and they’ve taken a step back defensively as well. Morant should not be under $8,000 on either site.

LaMelo Ball ($6,500 DK/$6,300 FD) – I’m only paying this price if Terry Rozier is out. Fortunately, both sites did jump him after his monster game but word of caution – he was on pace for 24 minutes at halftime. Rozier left after that and Ball played 19 minutes out of 24 in the second half. Ball shines in the stats without Rozier on the floor with a 23.8% usage and a 1.27 FPPM. I certainly don’t question the talent, just the minutes when the Hornets are healthy. If they’re not tonight, I don’t see how we can skip Melo.

Theo Maledon ($4,300 DK/$4,300 FD) – It’s no longer DialloZSN as Maledon is the man to turn to when George Hill is out. The past two games he’s posted 30 and 33 minutes, which is far too much to pass at this price. Maledon only has a 0.76 FPPM with Hill off the floor, but the minutes makes up for the lackluster ratio. The Rockets have climbed to the top in pace over the past few weeks, and that’s a great spot to target a cheap starter. We shouldn’t expect 6-6 from three again, but even 22-26 fantasy points makes it well worth the play.

Honorable Mention – Chris Paul, Dame, Lonzo Ball/Eric Bledsoe

Shooting Guard

Victor Oladipo ($8,000 DK/$8,200 FD) – Talk about efficiency, Dipo is coming off a 40 point game where he only played 25 minutes. He’s been playing 32+ with the Rockets so I’m not particularly worried. I mentioned earlier just how fast the Rockets are playing and since Dipo has been there, his usage rate is 30.7% and the FPPM is 1.22. He is probably priced to the ceiling, but that’s fine in cash games. Especially on FD, the high end of the position is a little sketchy.

Gary Trent Jr. ($5,700 DK/$5,500 FD) – I normally hate scoring dependent player but the Blazers just aren’t letting Trent off the floor right now. The past three games he’s logged 41, 38 and 37 minutes on the floor. Here’s the one aspect that I really do like for Trent – the three ball. He’s hoisted a ridiculous 32 over those three games. That’s a nice thing to have in your pocket when you face the Milwaukee Bucks. They rank seventh in frequency allowed and are suddenly giving up the third-highest percent from behind the arc. This is a perfect spot to use a scoring-heavy player like Trent with both teams in the top half of the league in pace.

Tyrese Haliburton ($5,200 DK/$5,400 FD) – I always like to target players in the high pace games, and it’s a bonus when neither team can play defense. The rookie is always a prime cash candidate at this salary. One of the reasons is he fills the stat sheet all the way across. Look at the last four games – he’s totaled 43 real points but has been at 27 FD points in three of four. The assist rate is 27.3%, second on the team to only Fox. The minutes have been key as he’s logged at least 30 in the past four games, and is line to do it again tonight.

Cam Reddish ($4,900 DK/$4,600 FD) – There’s not a lot to love with the matchup against the Lakers, but there is opportunity. Reddish is going to be on the floor a ton, logging 35 and 32 minutes the past two games. De’Andre Hunter is out for this game, and the Hawks continue to be without Bogdan Bogdanovic. With those two off the floor, Reddish boasts a 24.1% usage and a 1.03 FPPM in over 100 minutes. At this price (especially on FD), we have to take a look.

Honorable Mention – Possibly Tyler Herro/Kendrick Nunn, SGA

Small Forward

Brandon Ingram ($8,200 DK/$8,000 FD) – We’ve already talked about two Kings so it stands to reason that we should talk about some Pelicans. Ingram stands out for sure on both sites with a reasonable price tag and an elite game environment. BI has a 28% usage rate and he and Zion Williamson are neck and neck at about a 1.15 FPPM. This game is one of two that are over 235 at the moment and it’s likely to stay there. The difference between this game and the Blazers game is this one is a 3.5 point spread. Anytime we can get Ingram running back and forth, I’m interested.

R.J. Barrett ($6,700 DK/$6,700 FD) – The Knicks will be on their third game in four days but I’m not sure that matters to the coaching staff. Barrett actually only played 30 minutes yesterday, which must feel like a nice break. The second-year pro has his true shooting rate over 50% for the first time all year and still has a 23.6% usage rate. We always like going after the Bulls since they play so fast and it’s a bit time pace up spot for Barrett. He and Julius Randle are tied for fifth in minutes this season and he seems like a lock for about 30-35 fantasy points again tonight.

Kyle Anderson ($5,800 DK/$5,800 FD) – The state of SF is really not great tonight. You could buy into the Jerami Grant Revenge Tour in Denver, but is it really revenge when you got paid what Grant did? Maybe, but the form has been poor lately. Slo-Mo checks in for me as a safe-ish option with not a ton of upside, but some solid floor. He’s really not too shabby from the statistical department with JoVal off the floor. Anderson sports a 21.6% usage and a 1.12 FPPM, second-best after Ja. Even in just 20 minutes last time out, he managed 30 FD points. He’s not been below 20 all year and eight of 12 games have been over 25. That’s good enough at this tag.

Honorable Mention – Khris Middleton, Grant, LeBron

Power Forward

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000 DK/$11,600 FD) – I said last game that Greek was going to go off. Granted, that’s not a big leap of faith but he hasn’t had the same amount of ceiling games this year that we’re accustomed to. After 72 DK points, 39 minutes and one rebound short of a massive triple-double, I’ll say again – Giannis is going to go absolutely HAM SANDWICH in this game. They will spend their night throwing Robert Covington and Carmelo Anthony at him. El. Ol. El. When Greek gets to the paint (which will be whenever he pleases), Enes Kanter is waiting there for him. I hope Dame and company can hit enough three’s to keep this one close because I think we get another 65+ from Giannis tonight.

Julius Randle ($9,200 DK/$8,800 FD) – Randle got back on track last game and gets a fantastic spot tonight. We always target the Chicago front court and tonight it’s the same song and dance. The two teams are polar opposites in pace, which will help Randle grab some extra opportunities. I mean, this man is 12th in touches in the NBA. He’s got more per game than Steph Curry, Bradley Beal, Joel Embiid and Donovan Mitchell to name a few. His 1.26 FPPM is easily the best on the team and it’s going to shine through tonight.

Robert Covington ($5,000 DK/$4,900 FD) – I’m likely only on him on FD, since the steals and blocks count for more. RoCo is 13th in the league in steals per game and he’s going to play a bunch of minutes here. He played 34 last time out and it will be the same again this time around. The pace up spot helps him out a little and they’re going to need his presence on defense as much as he possibly can. This isn’t much more than the Blazers are just down so many bodies and the pace should be high with a cheap price for RoCo.

Honorable Mention – Christian Wood, Zion (nobody is stopping him in the paint), Xavier Tillman

Center

Deandre Ayton ($8,000 DK/$8,300 FD) – Kristaps Porzingis will play for Dallas tonight, but that doesn’t scare me off Ayton. If Booker plays, I’d not be near as willing to go here. Only five center eligible players log more minutes than Ayton, which helps him a lot. Dallas is also a great matchup, sitting dead last in paint points allowed and Ayton just tagged them for a massive double-double. With Booker off the floor, Ayton has seen his usage jump by 2% to a 21.6%. With Dallas just 28th in rebounding, Ayton has a good shot to hit a big double-double again tonight.

Cody Zeller ($5,300 DK/$5,200 FD) – The past three games have been rock solid to excellent for Zeller from a fantasy perspective. He’s hit 37 DK twice and 24 once, which is a nice mix. 37 would be a 7x return while the 24.5 wouldn’t totally cripple you at this price. The Heat are actually dead last in rebounding on the year, and Zeller has snagged 35 in the past three contests. If they run him another 34 minutes like they did last game, he could be flirting with 40 DK yet again. I would expect him to match Bam Adebayo quite a bit so we should expect some good run.

Jaxson Hayes ($4,000 DK/$3,600 FD) – This is only if Steven Adams is out, and nothing else. If the Big Kiwi misses, the field is going to turn to Jaxson Hayes. An imperfect player, there’s still flashes in his game through limited minutes in his career. He’s got a 0.82 FPPM on just a 12.6% usage rate and if Adams is out, that’s 30 minutes opened up in the rotation. The Kings are 26th in rebounding and 18th in paint points allowed, the right spot to target the young man. Let’s make sure the day unfolds like we need it to but he could be the salary saver tonight.

Honorable Mention – Joker, Clint Capela

Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/1 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!