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NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Talladega 4/25/21

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial as well to make sure you are ready and have an understanding of how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Talladega history:

This week the Cup Series heads south to Talladega Superspeedway! This race will get crazy, unlike the Xfinity Series on Saturday. It will be unpredictable and there is a good chance we will get a last-lap pass before it’s all over. In 2020 we had a last-lap pass at both of the races at Talladega so why not go for 3 in a row on Sunday. We have seen crazier things, see Carl Edwards jogging to the finish line. Don’t believe me, check out the video below from the NASCAR Youtube channel:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7lfK7IOmk4

Lineup Construction:

When it comes to building lineups for me on Sunday I will focus on loading up on the value tier and drivers starting from 25th place and back. Below is how I plan on building most of my lineups on Sunday.

1 driver starting P15 or higher (GPP ONLY, none for Cash or SE)
1-2 drivers starting from P16-P25
3-4 drivers starting from P26 and back (4-5 for Cash or SE contests)

You will have some salary leftover if you build your lineups this way, but that is expected and necessary generally. In the past, at Superspeedway races, we would see optimal lineups with as little as $800 leftover, but as much as $3.1K leftover as well. Do NOT be afraid to leave salary on the table this weekend. I know as DFS players we are programmed to get the most we can from our “budget” but this is not one of those races.

This week, and going forward, I am going to break down the dominator and mid-tier in order of how I rank the drivers in this tier as opposed to in salary order

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Chase Elliott ($10,300)

Starting Position: 8th

Elliott is one of the top Superspeedway drivers in the field on Sunday and is coming off a 2nd place finish at Daytona. Starting 8th and with the potential to win this race, Elliott offers up some place differential. Over the four Superspeedway races in 2020, Elliot ranked 1st in overall speed and led 41 laps in the second Talladega race.

Team Penske

Joey Logano ($9,800 – P2), Ryan Blaney ($10,100 – P7), Brad Keselowski ($10,500 – P10)

Both Logano and Blaney are two of the favorites to win this race and I plan on having some exposure to both. Keselowski is a good Superspeedway driver but has had some problems at Talladega since his last win there in 2018. Blaney was dominant last season leading 73 laps in the two races and winning the first Talladega race. Logano is another great superspeedway driver having the 2nd best finish and average running position at this track since 2017 and is a three-time winner.

Denny Hamlin ($10,000)

Starting Position: 1st

Hamlin starts on the pole is only viable in large field GPP’s on Sunday. In his last 5 Talladega races, Hamlin has finished top 4 in four of those races including his win last fall here. This year at Daytona, Hamlin finished 5th after leading 98 laps and winning both stages.

Other Options: Alex Bowman ($9,000 – P5), Kyle Larson ($9,400 – P12)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Ricky Stenhouse ($8,500)

Starting Position: 17th

It’s how he races at Superspeedways that earned Ricky the name “Wrecky” Stenhouse but he is actually one of the best Superspeedway drivers. Talladega has been where Stenhouse shines with an average finish here of 4.2 since 2016 and he has finished in the top 5 40% in his career here.

Ryan Newman ($7,600)

Starting Position: 28th

If you are playing cash games or single entry on Sunday, Ryan Newman is a lock for those lineups. Starting 28th, he offers you some outstanding place differential. Newman will generally run in the back of the field throughout the race and then race his way into the top 10 before it’s all said and done.

Harrison Burton ($7,900)

Starting Position: 39th

Burton starts next to last in the #96 Gaunt Bros Toyota. This is going to be a 2021 Toyota (usually a 2020) which makes me think they will be getting help from Joe Gibbs Racing this week. Burton is another driver who will be very popular and is a great cash game/single entry play.

William Byron ($8,000)

Starting Position: 4th

Byron stats high and is another GPP only play, but he does have some upside here with his recent history at Superspeedways. In 2020, Byron won the second Daytona race and had an average finish of 7.5 at similar tracks. As long as Byron can avoid all the potential wrecks here he could come home with the win.

Aric Almirola ($8,700)

Starting Position: 14th

Almirola is a Superspeedway stud and is a former winner here at Talladega (2018 – Fall). In eight of his last nine races at similar tracks, Almirola has finished in the top 10 and like with all the other drivers listed has the potential for another if he can avoid the wrecks.

Other Options: Austin Dillon ($7,700 – P11), Kurt Busch ($8,300 – P15), Bubba Wallace ($7,000 – P24), Erik Jones ($7,500 – P22), Matt DiBenedetto ($8,200 – P13),

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

I can really make a case for any driver in this tier, but below are just a few of the ones I like the most.

Ryan Preece ($6,400) – P29: Preece is a solid superspeedway driver and is coming off a 6th place finish at Daytona. In his four SS races, Preece has an average finish of 11.5
Tyler Reddick ($6,500) – P20: Reddick is a bit risky of a play, but he did finish top 10 here last fall and has won in the Xfinity Series at Talladega
Ross Chastain ($6,100) – P18: Chastain finished 7th at Daytona and has 3 finishes of 12th or better in his 6 superspeedway races
Corey Lajoie ($5,600) – P26: It seems every Cup Series race at Superspeedways Corey Lajoie manages a good result. Lajoie finished 28th at the last Talladega race, but in his previous 3 races he had finishes of 16th, 7th, and 11th
Justin Haley ($5,900) – P34: We all know that Haley has had great success at the Xfinity level at Talladega, and even has a win in the Cup Series at Daytona. If we can get a top 20 out of Haley that would be great
Kaz Grala ($5,800) – P38: Grala is in the Kaulig #16 on Sunday. Starting 38th gives him plenty of upside and makes him a popular play. He is a cash game lock for me.
Anthony Alfredo ($5,700) – P30: Maybe this will be Alfredo’s week? If the attrition goes his way and he manages to avoid the wrecks a top 20 could be in his future.

As far as the drivers priced $5.4K and lower, you can take a shot if you want, but do so with caution. They will need some help from other drivers wrecking out and for their cars to function properly to give you value. I may throw one or two into my lineups because, hey you never know.

Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Talladega 4/24/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

This week the NASCAR Xfinity Series is in Talladega for the second Superspeedway race of the season. I’m not going to lie, I hate these races. They are impossible to predict and are generally accident-filled. My first suggestion for these types of races is to play light. I usually play 5-6 lineups, but I will be scaling it down to 1-2 lineups because it just doesn’t make sense financially to spend all that money. If I do decide to make multiple lineups it will be to play $5-$10 in $1 or $2 contests.

How I build Superspeedway lineups

I will do my best to give you some of the plays who tend to fare well at these type of tracks and who actually has some upside in the field. One thing that I will hammer into you over this weekend is the fact that you will have salary left over, a lot of it. You do not, nor should you, spend all $50K because the best way to get on the right side of the cash line or even have a chance at a takedown will be to load up with 4-5 drivers starting 25th or lower. I know as a DFS player it is not in our nature to leaves thousands on the table, but when you look at optimal lineups throughout the years at superspeedways, it just makes sense. Usually, you have anywhere from $1.2K to over $3K salary remaining in the optimal lineups at these types of tracks. I can almost guarantee I will have $1K or more salary leftover in every lineup I build this week.

When building your lineups try to hold to this type of build

1 driver starting inside the top 15

1-2 drivers from 15th-25th

3-4 drivers starting 26th or lower

Yes, you will have salary leftover and that is ok.!

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kaulig Racing:

AJ Allmendinger ($10,600 – P11), Justin Haley ($9,200 – P5), Jeb Burton ($8,200 – P9)

Looking back to the two 2020 Talladega races you notice that Justin Haley swept them both. We also see that they had 5 top ten finishes with their 3 cars in the two races. With how well these cars ran I definitely have interest in running 1-2 of these cars in each lineup this week. Last season Jeb Burton raced the #8 for JRM, but he also had a good day in his one Talladega race. Burton came home 3rd in the June race with 2 fastest laps and 8 laps led. With these races being short, we are not chasing dominator poins but inteast finishing position and place differential. I think with all three of these drivers outside the top 5 they offer up limited PD upside, but they do have the potential to finish top 5 which is what we look for to pair with our place differential drivers from the back.

Austin Cindric ($9,600)

Starting Position: 1st

Cindric is a good superspeedway driver and even though he is on the pole for Saturday’s race, he has the potential to win. If you are playing one lineup, then maybe stay away from Cindric because he can kill your chances if he wrecks early. Typically the early wrecks come from the rear of the field but that’s not to say it can’t happen upfront. Last season in the October Dega race, Cindric wrecked out 75 laps in, but before that, he had finished top 5 in his previous two Talladega races.

Other Options (in order of preference): Noah Gragson ($10,000 – P4), Ryan Sieg ($9,800 – P17), Brett Moffitt ($9,000 – P17)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Jason White ($8,400)

Starting Position: 40th

White could be the chalkiest play of this tier, luckily DK priced him up some to try and limit his ownership but not enough in my opinion. White managed to avoid the chaos at Daytona and finished 10th after starting 40th earlier this year. I will probably have close to 100% ownership on White this week because he can’t really hurt you and if he is able to escape the carnage he should definitely find his way into the optimal lineup.

Alex Labbe ($7,500)

Starting Position: 30th

Labbe, like White, is too cheap for his upside in this race. Last season Labbe finished top 10 in both Talladega races and has never finished lower than 25th in four races here. If Labbe can navigate the wrecks, a top 10 is definitely a possibility for the #36 on Saturday.

Brandon Brown ($7,600)

Starting Position: 18th

In eight races at superspeedways since 2019, Brandon Brown has only one finish lower than 18th (26th at Daytona in 2020). Brown also has four top 10 finishes in those eight races and an 11th place finish. Brown is another driver who seems to know his way around these superspeedways and has some good place differential upside on Saturday.

Other Options: Landon Cassill ($7,100 – P32), Josh Berry ($8,100 – P6), Harrison Burton ($8,500 – P3), Ty Dillon ($7,900 – P16),

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Jeffrey Earnhardt ($6,300) – P33
Matt Mills ($5,900) – P36
Mason Massey ($6,600) – P31
Timmy Hill ($5,000) – P27
Ryan Vargas ($6,500) – P39
Natalie Decker ($6,000) – P38
Caesar Bacarella ($6,800) – P28
Josh Williams ($5,600) – P15
Jesse Little ($5,600) – P34
David Starr ($5,200) – P26
Gray Gaulding ($5,300) – P24

Make sure to check in discord throughout the day on Saturday as I may update the value plays if I find out more info on sponsors and potential start and park drivers.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Premium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Richmond 4/18

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

We are back with another short flat race track in the state of Virginia this weekend. After a fun, exciting, and profitable race weekend in Martinsville last week the NASCAR Cup series moves north to Richmond. Last season at Richmond it was a caution free race (outside of stage breaks) but I don’t see that happening again this weekend. One unusual thing we saw last season was that six of the top eight DraftKings point scorers started inside the top 10. This is definitely something to keep in mind when building your lineups for Sundays race.

This week, and going forward, I am going to break down the dominator and mid-tier in order of how I rank the drivers in this tier as opposed to in salary order

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,400)

Starting Position: 1st

*** GPP CORE PLAY ***

Last week we saw Truex come on late and earn his second win of the season, his first coming at Phoenix a track very similar to Richmond. Truex led 64 laps at Phoenix this season and over the last four races at short flat tracks Truex has a win (2021 Phoenix) three top 5’s and a 4th place average finish. Since 2018 Truex has yet to finish lower than 3rd here and has won 2 of the last 3 races at Richmond. In 6 of the last 8 races at Richmond Truex has led 109 or more laps and has an average finish of 1.8 in his last 4 races here. If you can’t tell, I LOVE Truex this week!

Joey Logano ($10,600)

Starting Position: 5th

If anyone can take Martin Truex down this week, it might just be Logano. Joey Logano is a two-time Richmond winner who has been one of the most dominant drivers at this track over the years. Since 2014, Logano has finished top 10 in 11 of 13 races and top 15 in all 13 races. Since the start of last season, Logano has been top 4 in every race at this track type in total speed, including being the fastest car at Phoenix this season.

Kyle Larson ($10,300)

Starting Position: 6th

Larson has already had plenty of success here in lesser equipment, so there is no doubt in my mind that he should have a good day here on Sunday. Over the last 5 races this season, Larson ranks 5th overall in total speed (he’d be top 3 if you take out Bristol: Dirt). Larson does have a win here and has finished no worse than 7th in 5 of his last 6 races at Richmond.

Chase Elliott ($9,700)

Starting Position: 3rd

*** CASH CORE PLAY ***

Elliott is underpriced on both sites this week and will most likely be semi-chalky. This is one of the few tracks that Elliott has never won at, but Sunday could be his day. Elliott has three top 5’s in his last five Richmond races though. We all know how well Elliott did at Phoenix last season when he won the last race and the championship, he also came from the rear of the field to finish 5th earlier this season at Phoenix. I think Elliot is a dark horse candidate to unseat the Richmond regulars and get his win.

Ranking the remaining top tier drivers:

Denny Hamlin ($11,000 – P2) – We can pretty much play Hamlin every week. He will lead laps on Sunday and could finally get to victory lane this season
Brad Keselowski ($12,000 – P20) – *** CASH CORE PLAY *** Keselowski is another great Richmond driver and should compete for the win. Keselowski let 192 laps on his way to winning this race last fall
Kyle Busch ($10,000 – P10) – Busch is another great play for Sunday and is the only top driver who raced in the Truck Series race so he knows how the track is running. We could see a top 5 from Busch on Sunday
Kevin Harvick ($9,400 – P9) – Harvick and the entire SHR team have not had a good season. I need to see them, especially Harvick, perform well before I will roster them, especially Harvick.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Austin Dillon ($7,600)

Starting Position: 11th

*** GPP CORE PLAY ***

Dillon is another driver who has been very consistent when it comes to Richmond. Dillon has finished top 6 In three of his last four races at Richmond including last season. In 2020, Dillon finished 4th after leading 4 laps and had an average run position of 5.8.

Alex Bowman ($8,800)

Starting Position: 24th

Bowman has great upside on Sunday starting P24 even though he doesn’t have a great past here. Last season’s race here at Richmond Bown has his career-best finish at this track when he came home13th. Bowman isn’t a core GPP play, but the upside seems limited, so I wouldn’t consider Bowman as a core play this week.

William Byron ($8,500)

Starting Position: 4th

Byron is one of the best drivers when it comes to speed this season, but most people may not realize this. In 2021, Byron ranks third in the last five races when it comes to total speed rankings. Byron was a top ten car according to the speed rankings, and it showed when he finished 8th. I think we need a top 5 from Byron for him to make value, but I think that is very possible.

Other Options: Christopher Bell ($7,800), Matt DiBenedetto ($8,000), Tyler Reddick ($7,200, Kurt Busch ($8,300), Erik Jones ($7,600)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Ricky Stenhouse ($6,200) – P14 *** CASH CORE PLAY*** I think Stenhouse is underpriced this week. He isn’t great at Richmond usually, but he is having a great season and could get to a top 10
Daniel Suarez ($6,600) – P27 *** GPP CORE PLAY *** Suarez has been a bright spot in the series the past few weeks. At Phoenix earlier, Suarez finished 21st, but his team has seemed to figure something out and has top 20 potential this week.
Ross Chastain ($6,000) – P18: Chastain finished 18th at Phoenix this season and was 22nd in total speed ranking. I think Chastain is cheap and has some small PD upside
Michael McDowell ($5,800) – P23: McDowell has come back down to earth after his early-season run. Even with that being said, I think a top 15 is possible with attrition
Justin Haley ($5,200) – P34: Haley is in a spot where he can give you a plus 10 PD on Sunday. At Phoenix, Haley finished 24th and has been averaging a 26.6 finish this season.
Chris Buescher ($6,100) – P12: I wish Buescher was cheaper or starting further back but it is what it is. I think Buescher is probably at best around a 15th place car this week.
Ryan Preece ($5,600) – P25: With attrition Preece could finish top 20, but a low to mid 20’s finish is more likely. Over the last year, Preece averages a 22.5 finish at these track types
Corey Lajoie ($5,700) – P36: Do I love Lajoie, no. Will I have some exposure? Most likely. I think Lajoie can finish top 30 and provide some value.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Truck Series Richmond 4/17

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Truck series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Last time we saw the Truck Series they were on the dirt at Bristol, luckily they are back on pavement and this race should be more predictable. This race is typically a two dominator race because we have 250 laps to pick up points, but this is a Kyle Busch ($16,500) race. With Kyle running this race we could see him leading the majority of laps. Now, at this high price and the limited place differential upside I can see a reason to fade Kyle this weekend. I will probably be underweight on Busch this weekend. There is another driver who has similar equipment to Kyle and has better place differential upside.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

John Hunter Nemecheck ($11,500)

Starting Position: 18th

If you take out the dirt race (and I do), Nemechek has not finished lower than seventh this season. Nemechek drives for Kyle Busch Motorsports and was able to hold his own against his owner a few weeks back at Atlanta he came home third behind Busch. JHN has never raced a truck at Richmond, but in 21 races at similar tracks (Martinsville, Loudon & Phoenix) he has 1 win, 8 top 5’s, and 12 top 10 finishes. I will have plenty of exposure to Nemechek this week as I think he is the real main threat to Kyle this weekend and could lead some laps and has that PD upside we like.

Zane Smith ($9,800)

Starting Position: 6th

Last season Smith led 44 laps at Richmond and had 8 fastest laps on his way to finishing 11th. Smith spent the entire race running inside the top 15 last season as well and had an average running position of 6.1. In 2020 at comparable tracks (Martinsville & Phoenix), Smith had top 5 finishes in both races and led 68 laps in those two races. Also, if you believe in these types of things, Smith posted a picture on Twitter of himself finding a four-leaf clover this week, so maybe he has some luck heading into Saturday’s race.

Sam Mayer ($9,200)

Starting Position: 40th

Sam Mayer is one of the best up-and-coming drivers in NASCAR and is extremely unpriced this week. Mayer will be chalk this week and I am ok with eating some of that chalk because the upside is there with him. Mayer is not in the best truck he’s ever been in, but he is so good he can make the most of it. Last season in this race, Mayer finished 19th after starting from P25 but he ran as high as fourth place. I can see Mayer coming home with a top 10 this week and potentially picking up some fastest lap dominator points.

Other Options: Grant Enfinger ($9,500 – P3) – Enfinger dominated this race some last season on his way to a win. Sheldon Creed ($10,500 – P9)

Here is a special FADE play for this week:

Tyler Ankrum ($11,000 – P30) You may be tempted to play Ankrum for the place differential, but he and his team have just been horrid this season. I need to see something from this truck before I can consider using him this season. Ankrum has not finished higher than 17th in 2021 and has negative fantasy points in 3 of 5 races.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Matt Crafton ($8,700)

Starting Position: 7th

Crafton turned out a solid performance in this same race last season leading to a second-place finish. In 2020, Crafton led 25 laps, had 27 fastest laps, had an average run position of 7.3 in this race. Crafton hasn’t really led many laps this season, which is normal for Crafton. I like him for GPP’s because I believe the #88 doesn’t garner much ownership this weekend and has top 5 potential.

Ben Rhodes ($8,300)

Starting Position: 1st

Kyle Busch will most likely take over this race at some point, but before he does Ben Rhodes should lead the majority of the early laps. Last season at Richmond, Rhodes led the most laps with 66 and also had 39 fastest laps. I know he is on the pole, and generally, we stay away, but Rhodes has been the best overall truck this season and I think he ends up top 5.

Timmy Hill ($7,000)

Starting Position: 34th

Hill has only run one race this season, Daytona RC, and he finished 9th after starting from P34. Last season at Richmond, Hill started 15th but came home in P9. Hill didn’t lead any laps, but he did have 3 fastest laps. I think Hill could be a very popular option on Sunday because of his price and starting position.

Other Options: Todd Gilliland ($7,200 – P8), Chandler Smith ($7,900 – P23), Derek Kraus ($8,500 – P19), Spencer Davis ($7,400 – P25)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Ryan Reed ($5,300) – P39
Jett Noland ($6,800) – P36
Danny Bohn ($5,700) – P28
Howie Disavino ($5,200) – P35
Tate Fogleman ($4,900) – P24
Carson Hocevar ($5,500) – P13
Kris Wright ($4,800) – P22
Keith McGee ($4,500) – P32
Josh Reaume ($5,100) – P37
Dawson Cram ($6,300) – P31

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Premium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Martinsville 4/10

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

NASCAR is back after a week off for the Easter holiday last weekend. This week we head to Martinsville, Virginia, and the circuit’s oldest track. This is a slow, short track that is pretty much two drag strips attached to two shallow banked turns. This is a 2-3 dominator race on Saturday with there being a 500 lap race.

Last season five drivers swept the top 6 positions and seven drivers swept the top 10 positions. Nobody has been better at Martinsville than the Penske Fords over the past few seasons. I will have plenty to say about the Penske cars in this article, especially Brad Keselowski. There is also the narrative that the drivers who call the Xfinity/Truck race the day before the Cup race win (Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano won the previous two races). So, if you believe in this narrative (Brian Tulloch to name one person), keep an eye on Austin Dillon and Ryan Blaney to win this race.

This week, and going forward, I am going to break down the dominator and mid-tier in order of how I rank the drivers in this tier as opposed to in salary order

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Brad Keselowski ($11,000)

Starting Position: 10th

Keselowski might as well be collecting rent from the other cars in the field because he owns Martinsville. In his last 10 races at Martinsville, Keselowski has TEN top 10’s and NINE top 5 finishes. Keselowski has to be one of the favorites to win this race and should be a lock for a top 5. In the Spring race here in 2019 Keselowski dominated by leading 446 of 500 laps and won this race. Brad knows his way around this track and will be tough to beat on Saturday night.

Chase Elliott ($11,400)

Starting Position: 5th

Elliott was the most dominant car at this race in the fall last season leading 236 laps on the way to the win. Not only did Elliott lead the most laps in the fall, but he also led the field in fastest laps with 110. Elliott has to be another favorite to win this race on Saturday night. We only need to weigh the price tag and dominator point upside to see if he can make value. I believe that Elliott will lead a good amount of the 500 laps in this race and will crush his value.

Martin Truex Jr. ($12,000)

Starting Position: 7th

I will start by saying I do not love the price for Truex, but I think his incredibly high salary could keep his ownership down for this race. Truex does have great track history here at Martinsville, including last fall when he led 129 laps and had 75 fastest laps. Truex has a late-race pit stop that torpedoed his shot at the win, so pay no attention to his finish for this race. If you don’t factor in the race last fall, Truex has an average finish of 3.2 at this track since 2017.

Joey Logano ($10,700)

Starting Position: 1st

Logano is coming of the win at Bristol two weeks ago and has to be considered to compete for the victory on Saturday night. There is this weird stat that shows since 2015 when Logano is on the pole at Martinsville he has an average finished of 22.75, but when he starts elsewhere in the field he has a 5th place average finish. Do with that what you will, but I am not scared off of Logano because of that. In 2020 at Martinsville, Logano had the fastest green flag speed in the Spring race and the 4th best speed in the Fall. If he can hold off Hamlin, I think we could see a lot of the early laps led by Logano on Saturday night.

Kyle Busch ($9,8000)

Starting Position: 12th

Busch is underpriced in my opinion for his upside in this race. I hope people just don’t play him because of this narrative that he can’t hack it anymore. Martinsville is one of Kyle’s favorite and best tracks with nine top 10’s and eight top 5’s in his last 11 races at Martinsville. Busch is also a two-time winner at Martinsville and is my pick to win this race.

Ranking the remaining top tier drivers:

Denny Hamlin ($10,400) – P2: Hamlin has the best speed ranking on the season and is also a 5 time winner here at Martinsville.
Ryan Blaney ($10,100) – P4: Blaney finished runner up in both 2020 Martinsville races.
Kyle Larson ($11,700) – P19: Larson has amazing upside starting P19, but he doesn’t have a great history here. I think Larson is a contender for the top10 this week and offers some PD upside.
Kevin Harvick ($9,600) – P9: Harvick is not one of the drivers I plan on rostering because I don’t think he finishes much higher than his starting position.
Alex Bowman ($9,200)) – P20: Bowman has great PD upside and has three finishes of 7th or better in his last 4

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

William Byron ($8,700)

Starting Position: 3rd

Byron is one of the teams running the best in 2021 and already has a win. At Martinsville in the fall 2020 race, Byron had a car with top 10 speed, but with about 60 laps remaining he got into the wall when he cut down a tire and finished 35th. Byron had the 11th best total speed ranking and 12th best green flag speed

Kurt Busch ($8,900)

Starting Position: 21st

Kurt Busch is another solid place differential play in the field on Saturday night. Busch is another multi-time winner at Martinsville who has been clicking off some great finishes recently. Since 2018, Kurt has an average finish of 8.2 and an average running position of 9.7 as well as finishing between 5th and 12th in every race.

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,800)

Starting Position: 22nd

DiBenedetto had some really poor finishes at Martinsville, but last season that changed. DiBenedetto had some of that Penske greatness here rub off on him when he finished with two top 10’s. After a poor start to the 2021 season, DiBenedetto and the 21 team are improving weekly and is one of my top place differential plays on this slate.

Bubba Wallace ($7,300)

Starting Position: 25th

Martinsville is one of Wallace’s best tracks, especially over since 2019. In his last four races at “The Paper Clip”, Wallace has an average finishing position of 15.5. These finishes were in the #43, and now that he has JGR equipment which could improve his finish.

Other Options: Christopher Bell ($8,400 – P23), Austin Dillon ($7,100 – P18), Aric Almirola ($8,100 – P31) — Almirola is my favorite PD play in this race., Tyler Reddick ($7,500 – P13)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Chris Buescher ($6,400) – P15: Buescher has finished 12th or 13th in 3 of his last 5 Martinsville races. His team has shown some great speed this season and a top 10 isn’t out of the realm of possibilities.
Ricky Stenhouse ($5,800) – P6: Do I wish Stenhouse was starting further back? Of course, but that won’t scare me off him. I think he goes practically unowned which makes me like him even more
Erik Jones ($6,600) – P16: The 43 team has looked good so far this season and a top 15 is a real possibility this season
Michael McDowell ($5,500) – P14: McDowell is cheap enough that he can make value with a top 20 finish on Saturday, especially at his bargain price on FanDuel
Corey Lajoie ($5,200) – P34: Lajoie has an avg finish of 20.3 in his last 3 Martinsville starts
Ross Chastain ($6,300) – P27: Chastain hasn’t been great a Martinsville, but that was in subpar equipment. His CGR Chevy should easily help him finish with a top 20 this week.
Ryan Newman ($6,800) – P8: Newman, like Stenhouse, starts a little high up but he has top 10 upside and should make for a great GPP play.
Anthony Alfredo ($5,300) – P35: The combo of starting in the back and his low price makes Alfredo one of the safest plays in this tier. I really like him to help you get 3 dominators in your lineups
Ryan Preece ($5,600) – P17: Preece will need some attrition to have a good night but it’s not impossible. Preece is a GPP play only
Chase Briscoe ($6,100) – P24: Briscoe ran well here last fall in the Xfinity race, and has finished between 18th and 23rd since the series left Daytona

4 years ago 0 comments

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NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Martinsville 4/9

DFSGhost 4 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Welcome back NASCAR! after a week hiatus (two weeks for the Xfinity Series) I am finally breaking down some racing for you! I never knew I would miss dissecting late run green flag speeds and loop data after only a week, but here I am getting excited to do it again.

This week the Series heads to Martinsville, otherwise known as “The Paperclip”. This is a unique track with next to no banking, it is a very flat short track that isn’t really similar to other tracks, but we can look at both Richmond and Phoenix to get an idea how some teams may run here. This is a Dash 4 Cash race so there are NO Cup Series regulars in this race. We have 250 laps in this race under the lights on Friday night so I will look to have plenty of 2 dominator builds to eat up as many dominator points as possible. Last season was the first time in 14 years that the Xfinity Series ran a race at Martinsville, so we only have that data to go on for track history.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Harrison Burton ($9,300)

Starting Position: 1st

Once again I am going against my own rule of not rostering pole sitters, but at this price and after how Burton dominated this race from the pole last season it’s hard to not make him the top option in this tier. In 2020, Burton led 81 laps here on his way to winning this race. Burton never fell lower than 12th in the running order and had an average running position of 2.7 for this race last season. I really like Burton on Friday night, and there is a decent chance he comes in a low ownership starting from the pole.

Ty Gibbs ($10,500)

Starting Position: 16th

If Burton is your pure dominator for this race, than Ty Gibbs is your place differential dominator play. Gibbs has never raced at Martinsville in a stock car but he has had some success in 2020 and 2021 at Phoenix. In the ARCA Series, Gibbs finished 3rd in 2020 and 1st this season at Phoenix. Not only did he have two top 5’s he dominated these races leading a total of 246 laps in the two races combined. Gibbs is in some of the best equipment in the series and should easily see his way towards the front on Friday night and finish top 5 for the third time in three races this season

Brandon Jones ($9,900)

Starting Position: 24th

We are now 3 for 3 with Joes Gibbs cars in the top tier for this race. Jones is another potential dominator with place differential upside. I don’t think Jones dominates this race over either of the previous two JGR cars I mentioned above, but he can definitely pay off his price tag. Last season at Martinsville, Jones started P7 and came in 9th while never running higher than 5th in that race. Jones has the equipment and the ability to have another top 10, or ever a top 5 on Friday.

All three of Austin Cindric ($11,500 – P6), Noah Gragson ($11,100 – P8), and Justin Allgaier ($10,200 – P2) are in play for me this weekend and could very well push the JGR stable of Toyotas for the win here. My only issue with these three is their price tags. I am not 100% sure they can pay off their prices, especially Gragson with his bad luck this season. If anyone is going to take the top spot and be dominant in this race if should be one of these three drivers.

Other Options (in order of preference): Bretty Moffitt ($9,000 – P27 [could be chalky] Daniel Hemric ($10,800 – P4), Ryan Sieg ($9,600 – P12), AJ Allmendinger ($11,900 – P3 [Large Field GPP ONLY])

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Josh Berry ($8,000)

Starting Position: 29th

Berry is most likely going to be the chalk de jour on Friday night, and with reason. When you can get a driver with 20+ place differential upside at only $8K you have to take advantage of the soft pricing, especially in cash games. If you are playing GPP’s then I am totally on board with fading him.

GPP Pivots off Berry:

Jeb Burton ($7,800) – Burton starts from the 13th position and drove the #8 that Berry is in to a 4th place finish last season here. I don’t think Burton comes near the ownership that Berry will get but offers top 5 upside for a similar price

Brandon Gdovic ($7,500) – Gdovic is the Sam Hunt #26 on Friday night and should be practically unowned. I really like the upside of this car at Martinsville after three straight top 15 finishes. Gdovic finished top 10 in this ride at Daytona. Last season Mason Diaz drove the #26 to a 20th place finish, but I think Gdovic is a better driver and could bring this team their 4th straight top 15 finish.

JJ Yeley ($7,300)

Starting Position: 33rd

Yeley is an experienced driver who will keep this car clean and drive it to a potentially top 15 finish. In 2020, Yeley finished 14th in this race in this same car. Like with Berry, Yeley is going to be the chalkiest play in this price range, and like with Berry I will give you some GPP pivot off Yeley below.

GPP Pivots off Yeley:

Jeremy Clements ($7,200) – Clements has been one of the most consistent and best drivers in the Xfinity Series this season. Coming into Martinsville, Clements has 5 straight races finishing 17th or better, including three top 10 finishes. Even though he starts from P11, I like Clements for GPP’s because I think the majority of people will find the $100 to get the potential PD upside of Yeley. Clements is definitely the riskier play, but that’s what you want in GPP’s

Brandon Brown ($7,000) – Brown is $200 cheaper, but he offers 8 spots more of place differential with similar upside to Clements. So far this season Brown has four finishes of 11th or better, including three top 10 finishes. Brown does have two finishes outside the top 30, but I am not worried about those going into this race. Brown finished 18th in the 2020 Martinsville race.

Other Options: Myatt Snider ($7,700 – P9), Riley Herbst ($8,200 – P7), Justin Haley ($8,800 – P5)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Bayley Currey ($4,500) – P26: Currey is the cheapest driver in the field but actually has some upside. Usually, we want to fade these drivers but Currey has a top 10 at Phoenix this season and a 15th place finish in 2020.
Josh Williams ($6,000) – P15
Stefan Parsons ($5,200) – P38
Jade Bufford ($5,000) – P30
Tommy Joe Martins ($6,400) – P17
Joe Graf Jr. ($5,400) – P28
George Gorham Jr. ($5,600) – P37: Gorham is making his NASCAR debut Friday. He is evidently a very experienced and talented driver from Florida. Gorham has had success in his career at tracks similar to the style Martinsville so he may be a decent play starting P37.

I also have interest in Timmy Hill and David Starr but I will need to check around on Friday to see if they have sponsors for this race. I will update in discord when I find this info out.

Make sure to check in discord throughout the day on Friday as I may update the value plays if I find out more info on sponsors and potential start and park drivers.

4 years ago 0 comments

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NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Bristol: Dirt 3/28

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

For the first time in 50 years, the NASCAR Cup Series will be racing on a dirt track. The last time NASCAR raced the Cup cars on dirt Richard Petty won! Friday was the first time the Cup cars ran laps on the track and NASCAR was forced to make some adjustments to the race because of certain issues that arose.

One major issue was tire wear which led to NASCAR making the stage breaks. We will now have stage 1 and 2 consisting of 100 laps with the third stage being a 50 lap sprint. NASCAR has also added competition cautions at lap 50 and 150. Since the tire wear was greater than expected and cars cannot pit under green, NASCAR was forced to add more yellow flags to allow teams to change tires as needed, and they allowed the teams an extra set of sticker tires so that each team now has 6 sets as opposed to the original 5.

When it comes to building lineups for Sunday, there are a few different things I am looking at. First I want to focus on drivers who have dirt track experience, but not the dirt track ringers, but I want drivers who are in good equipment. Secondly, I want to look at practice sessions and see who was fast and ran well. Lastly, I still want to look at the current season and see what cars are currently running well in 2021.

This week, and going forward, I am going to break down the dominator and mid-tier in order of how I rank the drivers in this tier as opposed to in salary order

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kyle Larson ($12,000)

Starting Position: 1st – Starting from rear because of engine change

Larson was far and away the fastest car in both practice sessions on Friday but has overheating issues and the team was forced to change the engine in the 5 forcing him to start from the rear. Nobody in this field has a better history on dirt (of Cup regulars) and is in some of the best equipment in the series. Larson will probably low owned now that he is starting at the rear but that doesn’t deter me from rostering him, he will get back up front I believe and in the end, he will end up in victory lane. It will be hard for Larson to get the dominator points he needs to make value but it is feasible.

Tyler Reddick ($10,500)

Starting Position: 27th

Reddick has some enormous place differential starting from P27 on Sunday making him one of the top plays. Looking at lap averages from Friday’s “happy hour” (second practice session), Reddick improved over time. Reddick showed plenty of speed over time as he ran laps and was second to only Larson when it came to 15, 20, and 25 lap averages.

Christopher Bell ($11,000)

Starting Position: 15th

Both Bell and Reddick will most likely be the chalkier plays of this tier but with the upside both have, especially Bell, I want to have some exposure to them. Bell has some great history at Eldora in the Truck series including a win and 3 total top 10 finishes and 128 laps led in just three races. I do worry because Bell didn’t show much speed on Friday running no higher than 25th in 10 and 15 lap average speed.

Austin Dillon ($9,700)

Starting Position: 9th

Dillon is a fantastic dirt track driver and he has been having an outstanding season in the RCR #3 Chevy. Last week, Dillon ran 3 races at Bristol at the Nationals and won all three of his features. If Larson doesn’t win, there is a good chance that Dillon gets the #3 into victory lane. In practice on Friday, Dillon did not have great lap times, but he said he really likes his car and he wasn’t pushing the car because of the tire wear issues. If the driver likes his car, no matter the lap times, I like his car.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($10,200)

Starting Position: 13th

Stenhouse is another one of the great dirt track driver in the field on Sunday. Early on this season, Stenhouse has been a pleasant surprise as he has finished no worse than 18th and has four straight top 15 finishes. Stenhouse not only loves racing on dirt, he even owns a World of Outlaws team. I really love the upside from Stenhouse on Sunday and I plan to have a lot of Stenhouse in my lineups.

Denny Hamlin ($9,100) – P2: Hamlin could lead a lot of early laps since he will now be on the pole
Chase Briscoe ($9,900) – P25: Briscoe is a decorated dirt track racer, but he hasn’t had the best season. I will probably have some exposure but not more than 10-20%
Ryan Blaney ($9,300) – P3: Blaney started out in the top 10 in Happy Hour, faded in the middle of the session, but figured it out again by the end. I think Blaney could be a surprise dominator in this race.
Stewart Friesen ($10,500) – P32: Friesen is another great dirt track racer but I worry about him being very chalky. I think he could easily make value at his price with PD, but the #77 is not the type of equipment Friesen is used to.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Alex Bowman ($7,700)

Starting Position, 7th

Bowman isn’t, in his own words, a dirt guy per se but he probably has more dirt starts than most. In practice on Friday, Bowman had the 2nd best 10 lap average in the first session. Bowman then ran the 5th best 10 lap average in Happy Hour. He was able to run the high line in practice which is the faster line and if he can do that on Sunday he could surprise some with a top 5 finish here.

Kyle Busch ($8,900)

Starting Position: 4th

Kyle Busch has been looking like the Kyle Busch of old lately with three top 10 finishes and two top 5’s in his last four races. Busch does have 2 wins at Bristol Dirt, both of which came last week at the Dirt Nationals. Now, it was not the same type of competition that Kyle will see on Sunday, but seat time on this track is just, if not more, important.

William Byron ($7,100)

Starting Position: 8th

Byron does not have much dirt racing experience outside of his one run at Eldora in 2016 where he finished 14th. I love Byron’s price and it will be easy for him to make value with the current form he and his team are in. Byron did not have a great first practice but his team made the changes needed and he went from the 23rd best 10 lap average to the 7th best in the second practice session.

Other Options: Martin Truex Jr. ($8,000 – P5), Bubba Wallace ($8,500 – P19), Joey Logano ($8,300 – P10th), Kevin Harvick ($8,100 – P6), Kurt Busch ($7,800 – P28)

Place Differential Play: Chase Elliott ($8,700 – P26)

Elliot is starting from P26 which makes him one of the best plays on this slate. He is definitely a great cash gameplay and good for single entry as well. Elliott was very consistent in practice running the 4th best 10 lap average in both, and the third-best 15 lap average.

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Ryan Newman ($6,900) – P14: Newman is a great dirt track driver with an extensive background. Newman finished with the 11th best 10 lap avg
Matt DiBenedetto ($6,700) – P12: Matty D is a top 10 threat and like Newman, he is a driver with significant dirt experience
Corey Lajoie ($5,000) – P30: Lajoie put in some laps at the Dirt Nationals last week. At practice this week Lajoie had the 19th best 15 lap average and the 18th best 10 lap average
Cole Custer ($5,100) – P21: Custer was middle of the pack in both practice sessions and a top 20 is the cards for sure
Ty Dillon ($6,600) P39: I wish Dillon was a little cheaper but like his brother, he has some dirt track seat time and could contend for a top 20
Ryan Preece ($6,000) – P22: Preece is not a dirt track driver but he does exceptionally well at Bristol normally. Last fall Preece finished 9th, and this weekend at practice Preece had the 11th best 15 lap average.
Michael McDowell ($5,200 – P16: McDowell has stated his strategy is to ride around for 249 laps and push it after cars in front of him. McDowell wasn’t great in 1st practice but they fixed the issue it would seem since he finished inside the top ten in Happy Hour
Chris Buescher ($6,200) – P11: This isn’t a great play but if you want to be different, then Buescher is the guy for me
Anthony Alfredo ($4,800) – P29: I don’t love Alfredo today, but he starts far enough back that he can make some value at his price. A top 25 is almost a lock if he can avoid the carnage and a top 20 is possible.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Truck Series Bristol: Dirt 3/28

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

This weekend is different than every other race has been or will be this season, this weekend we race on dirt. Bristol is usually its own monster but this is a whole different ball game. In the Truck Series, we do have some type of dirt racing history to fall back on with Eldora Speedway. There have been seven races run in the Truck Series at Eldora and it has seven different winners. Stewart Friesen ($10,500) is the most recent winner (2019) and is undoubtedly one of the favorites for this race. There are also seven full-time Cup Series drivers running in this race on Saturday as well.

There were 44 drivers who entered but only 40 qualified for this race. JD Heffner withdrew from the race, Ryan Newman, Jessica Friesen, and Trevor Collins failed to qualify based on the algorithm NASCAR used to decide the starting grid.

NASCAR DFS: Cup Regulars

There are three drivers who aren’t just in this race seat time for the Cup race on Sunday but actually have a really good chance to win this race.

Kyle Larson ($11,500)

Starting Position: 28th

Larson is the favorite in this race and the Cup race on Sunday and is one of the best and most accomplished dirt racers in either field. Larson won the Eldora race back in 2016 leading 48 laps in the process. On Sunday, Larson will be in the #44 Niece Motorsports truck that Chastain drove to a top 10 last week. Larson is my pick to win this race and is a lock for any cash builds you make and will be in the majority of my GPP builds as well

Chase Briscoe ($11,000)

Starting Position: 33rd

Briscoe is the next driver I think can win this race on Sunday if the cards fall his way. Larson may be the favorite but Briscoe is right there as a close second. Briscoe won at Eldora race in 2018 and led 54 laps, he also finished 7th in 2019 leading 93 laps in the process. I think you should start any cash builds with Larson and Briscoe and find value to make that work.

Bubba Wallace ($9,700)

Starting Position: 32nd

Bubba Wallace is another former Eldora winner in running this race. Wallace dominated the Eldora race back in 2014, leading 97 laps on his way to a dominant victory. Even at the lowest price of the “ringers” who have a chance to win I don’t think Wallace will carry high ownership. People just don’t play him even though he is in a decent truck this week. Wallace will be driving the #11 that Spencer Davis drove to a top 20 last week.

Other Cup Series Regulars:

Kevin Harvick ($9,300) P30 – Harvick will be in the 17 that has two top 15’s this season for DGR
Martin Truex Jr. ($9,100) P15 – Of all the Cup drivers in this race nobody is in better equipment than Truex. He will be in the KBM #51 and could surprise with a top 5 if he figures out the track early on
Daniel Suarez ($8,000) P26 – Suarez is a decent play and he might carry some ownership because of his name and starting position. I won’t have any exposure to him personally, but he can be a good cash game play because he does have some upside.

NASCAR DFS: Truck Series Regulars

Stewart Friesen ($10,500)

Starting Position: 7th

Friesen has had plenty of success driving a NASCAR truck on dirt at Eldora in his career. In three races there Friesen has finishes of 1st, 2nd, and 3rd with his win coming in the series last race there in 2019. Friesen has led 150 laps over the three races at Eldora. On Friday, Friesen ran the 5th fastest single lap speed in first practice and 4th in second practice.

Matt Crafton ($8,600)

Starting Position: 4th

Crafton is another previous winner of the dirt race at Eldora that should be a contender on Saturday night. In seven career races at Eldora, Crafton has never finished worse than 10th but has only led laps in the one race he won in 2017. Crafton is my favorite mid-tier priced driver in this race and is a good pivot off one of the Cup drivers in GPP’s.

Todd Gilliland ($7,200)

Starting Position: 13th

Gilliland has some dirt experience from Eldora, running two races there in 2018 and 2019, and finished 5th in 2019, he did look really good in the first practice session on Friday. In the first session, Gilliland had the 12th fastest overall lap, but also had the fastest 10, 15, and 20 laps average speed. Gilliland had a top-five overall lap in second qualifying on Friday as well. I don’t think Gilliland is a threat to win this race, but he could pull out a surprise top 10.

Other Options: Ben Rhodes ($8,300) – Fastest lap in final practice, Parker Kligerman ($7,700), Sheldon Creed ($10,000), Zane Smith ($7,900) – Smith ran the most practice laps looking to get plenty of track time, Derek Kraus ($7,000)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Tate Fogelman ($4,500) – P24
Raphael Lessard ($6,600) – P29
Danny Bohn ($4,600) – P25
Myatt Snider ($6,500) – P37
Mike Marlar ($6,800) – P38
Hailie Deegan ($5,500) – P22
Chandler Smith ($6,300) – P21
Tanner Gray ($6,100) – P18
Jake Griffin ($5,700) – P34
Carson Hocevar ($5,800) – P11

4 years ago 0 comments

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NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Atlanta 3/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

This week the Cup Series heads down to Georgia, more specifically Atlanta, for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 on Sunday. Last season’s winner Kevin Harvick ($11,000) is once again one of the favorites to win this race, but we need to decide if we want to pay up for Harvick at what could be lowered ownership.

Atlanta is another high tire wear course, similar to Homestead but maybe with more tire wear. We will want to look at drivers who faired well in that race earlier this season as well as drivers who have had success here in the past. When it comes to the drivers I want to target this week I want to look for drivers who have been successful here in the past, have a good history at other high tire wear tracks (Homestead, Darlington, Auto Club), and drivers who have been good of late. Pricing is soft on the top tier this week and the value tier is not great so I will look to fit 3 dominators into my lineups with 324 laps of dominator points available.

This week, and going forward, I am going to break down the dominator and mid-tier in order of how I rank the drivers in this tier as opposed to in salary order

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kyle Larson ($10,400)

Starting Position: 6th

Larson is one of the favorites on Sunday as he should be based on the 2021 season he is having in the #5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevy. In 2019, Larson’s last race at Atlanta, he was the most dominant car and should have won if not for a late-race incident that saw him finish 12th. In that race (in lesser equipment), Larson led a race-high 142 laps, had 54 fastest laps (most in the race), and had an average running position of 6.1. Larson also has the 2nd fastest speed rating in 2021, and nobody has a better speed ranking at 1.5 ovals this season than Larson. Needless to say, there is a very good chance Larson dominates this race on Sunday again but finishes it off in victory lane.

Kevin Harvick ($11,000)

Starting Position: 7th

Like I mentioned in the open, Harvick is the highest-priced driver on DK this weekend, but is his upside too limited to make value at that price? I believe he can be based on what he has done here in the past. Over the last 7 races in Atlanta, Harvick has led over 100 laps in 6 of those 7 races. Also, Harvick has won two of the last three Atlanta races, and this season he has the 5th best speed ranking.

Martin Truex Jr. ($9,600)

Starting Position: 2nd

Truex is one of the only drivers in this field who was able to run some “practice laps” on Saturday in the Xfinity race. On Saturday, Truex dominated the Xfinity race but a late-race caution kept him from earning his first Atlanta victory in a top-tier NASCAR series. Last season in the Cup race, Truex led 65 laps, had an average running position of 2.5, and won the first two stages while finishing 3rd. With Truex getting seat time on the track in Atlanta I really think that could be an advantage for him and potentially lead us to our first two-time winner this season.

Brad Keselowski ($10,200)

Starting Position: 4th

First and foremost let me get this out of the way, Keselowski will be without his crew chief on Sunday but I don’t think that is an issue and won’t factor into be rostering Keselowski. In the last four Atlanta races, Keselowski has won twice, oh, and in the other two races, he finished second. Keselowski has been good on similar tracks as well with six straight top 9 finishes on high tire wear tracks. and an average finish of 5.1.

Denny Hamlin ($10,000)

Starting Position: 1st

Hamlin has been the picture of consistency in 2021 when it comes to speed rankings. Nobody has been faster this season and Hamlin could have a dominant day on Sunday starting P1. Every weekend the #11 is fast, this team just knows how to build fast cars. It’s always risky playing the pole sitter, but with Hamlin on the pole, there is a pretty good chance he can lead leaps as well as hang around the top 5 all day.

Chase Elliott ($9,800) – P5: Elliot is relatively cheap this week but with good reason. Elliott hasn’t been great on 1.5 ovals this season, but it’s Elliott so he is always a contender
Joey Logano ($9,400) – P3: Logano has had some success here, but I don’t love the upside here for Logano. I won’t talk you off him because he can dominate, but I don’t think I’ll have exposure.
Ryan Blaney ($9,200) – P10: Blaney and the #12 team seem to be figuring it out now and Blaney could be a factor on Sunday. He has the best PD upside in this group.
William Byron ($9,000) – P9: Byron had a fast car in 2020 here, but hit the wall after the competition caution. That incident put him four laps down and he never recovered. He started 20th and was heading into the top 10 when the incident happened

Top Tier Place Differential Play: Kyle Busch ($10,700) – P19

Busch finished 2nd here last year and has finished top 7 in six of the last eight high tire wear tracks. Last season in six races at high tire wear tracks Busch had a 7.5 average finish which was 3rd best in the series.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Kurt Busch ($8,300)

Starting Position: 11th

Busch is a former three-time winner of this race and had to fight through adversity but had a good day. After starting at the rear, Busch then had to make a pass-through penalty which set him a lap down right away, but he fought back and came home 6th. In that race last year, Busch was 6th fastest late in a run and had the 9th best total speed ranking. Busch is my favorite mid-tier play today, but the next driver is a very close second.

Ryan Newman ($7,100)

Starting Position: 28th

Newman presents some amazing value at his price this weekend starting from P28. When you have a veteran like Newman starting this far back with great history at high tire wear tracks he becomes a near must play. Newman finished 7th at Homestead earlier this season and finished last season with a 14.5 average finish at these types of tracks. I really love Newman as a great inexpensive place differential play.

Alex Bowman ($8,800)

Starting Position: 14th

Bowman has never finished better than 12th here (2020) but his two career wins have come at high tire wear tracks. In seven high tire wear tracks in 20-21, Bowman has the third-best speed ranking but has a 9.4 average finish. This is the kind of stuff I talk about that average finish can be misleading, clearly, Bowman is fast at these tracks but just had some misfortune that ruined his races.

Austin Dillon ($7,300)

Starting Position: 13th

Dillon is one of the best of the bottom-priced mid-tier drivers on Sunday and a top 10 is definitely in the cards. Last year Dillon wasn’t great but managed an 11th place finish, but this season the speed had been there for the 3 team. I think Dillon could have himself a top 10 finish on Sunday.

Other Options: Christopher Bell ($7,800), Matt DiBenedetto ($8,100 – PD play starting P20), Aric Almirola ($8,000), Tyler Reddick ($8,400 – PD play starting P29),Bubba Wallace ($7,400)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Ricky Stenhouse ($6,300) – P12: Stenhouse has been nothing short of great in 2021. We don’t expect much from him and he has overperformed. Stenhouse has not finished lower than 18th this season and in his last three races lower than 13.
Anthony Alfredo ($5,500) P32: Alfredo has low 20’s upside which gives him some pretty good PD for his price
Chase Briscoe ($6,800) – P24: Outside of the Daytona RC, Briscoe has finished between 18th-22nd place. I don’t love the price for that limited value but he will be low owned and maybe this is the race he breaks out
Chris Buescher ($6,000) P17: Buescher has top 15 upside, but is more likely to finish low 20’s. The value tier is not great this week, so we need to make do with what we have.
Ross Chastain ($6,600) P21: Chastain has been a consistent driver for us this season and I see no reason it doesn’t continue this week.
Ryan Preece ($5,800) P23: Preece is another driver off to a surprising start. At his price and where he starts, unless he wrecks early, he can’t really hurt you
Daniel Suarez ($6,500) P25: After Daytona, Suarez’s average finish is 19.5. I am not a fan of his price either, but that price may keep his ownership down this week
Josh Bilicki ($4,800) P37: If you really need a punt play to make your build work, Bilicki is the guy. I don’t love the play and I don’t plan on playing him, but I know some of you love your cheap under $5K drivers

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Atlanta 3/20

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Atlanta is hosting a doubleheader Saturday afternoon with Truck Series kicking off the day followed by the Xfinity Series – EchoPark 250. Like with the Truck Series earlier on Saturday, the Xfinity race also has a Cup driver coming down to race. Martin Truex ($11,300) will be in the JGR #54 that Ty Gibbs has had much success in this season so we should see Truex also have a great day on Saturday as well. This is a 200 lap race so we have a good amount of dominator points available in this race, so I will look to have 2 dominators in my builds.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,300)

Starting Position: 18th

I mentioned in the open that Truex will be driving the #54 JGR Toyota on Saturday. We have seen both Ty Dillon and Ty Gibbs have good days in this car, especially Gibbs at the Daytona RC where he won his first career race. Truex is obviously the best driver to get into this seat this season and I think he will get this car to victory lane. I think Truex could collect plenty of dominator points as well as plus place differential points.

Austin Cindric ($10,900)

Starting Position: 1st

Cindric should dominate the early part of this race like he does most weeks. Last season, Cindric led 68 laps and had 41 fastest laps (both race highs) at this race but ended up 16th. We can see that Cindric was fast at Atlanta in 2020 and should have had a better fate. Cindric will have a better day on Saturday and should be fighting with Truex for the win come lap 200.

AJ Allmendinger ($10,300)

Starting Position: 3rd

Almendinger is finally back full-time in a top-flight NASCAR series and is making the best of it in 2021. In five races this season, Dinger has three top 5 finishes including his win at Las Vegas. Speaking of winning, Allmendinger won this race last season while leading 37 laps late and picking up dominator points from running 19 fastest laps as well. There is a lot to like in the top tier this week and Allmendinger is definitely one of the better plays.

Michael Annett ($9,000)

Starting Position: 27th

I hardly, if ever, write up Michael Annett as a top play, but this week Annett just makes sense in my opinion. After having a solid start to the season. Annett crashed last week and ended up 38th which gave him the starting position of 27th this week. After a rough Daytona, Annett rattled off three straight top 15 finished, including his 6th place finish at Las Vegas. Last season in Atlanta, Annett finished 11th and led just 3 laps, but those numbers would most certainly make us happy on Saturday with the #1 JRM Chevy.

Other Options (in order of preference): Daniel Hemric ($10,000 – P11), Brandon Jones ($9,600 – P16), Noah Gragson ($11,500 – P30), Justin Haley ($9,200 – P13), Ryan Sieg ($9,400 – P35)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Brett Moffitt ($8,400)

Starting Position: 8th

Every week I think Moffitt can’t be good again, can he? And with the exception of Las Vegas, Moffitt has been good. In five races this season, Moffitt has only finished worse than 11th once this season, the aforementioned Las Vegas race where he wrecked and finished 34th. Moffitt is strictly a GPP play and is a way to get different from everyone who will be paying up for the top tier drivers.

Josh Berry ($8,200)

Starting Position: 22nd

Berry will be taking over the 02 in the Truck Series from Kris Wright which can only be a good thing. Last season in this #8 car, Daniel Hemric finished 4th in this race. I would not be surprised to see Berry finish around the same on Saturday.

Santino Ferrucci ($7,500)

Starting Position: 12th

Ferrucci has seen immense improvement as this season has progressed with back-to-back top 15 finishes in the Sam Hunt #26. This is the 23 year Ferrucci’s first season in a NASCAR series and he is proving himself to be a respectable driver so far. I don’t think Ferrucci gets any ownership on Saturday making him a really good GPP play. There is plenty of risk involved with using Ferrucci, but a top 10 is also a possibility as well.

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Chad Finchum ($5,400 ) – P40
Cody Ware ($4,500) – P28
Landon Cassill ($5,600) – P20
Jeremy Clements ($6,400) – P10
Tommy Joe Martins ($4,900) – P15
Timmy Hill ($4,800) – P17
Jade Buford ($6,000) – P21
Blaine Perkins ($5,500) – P25
Dexter Bean ($4,600) – P29
Jeffrey Earnhardt ($6,800) – P26

Make sure to check in discord throughout the day on Saturday as I may update the value plays if I find out more info on sponsors and potential start and park drivers.

Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up to date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

4 years ago 0 comments

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