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NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Busch Light Clash at the Coliseum

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2022 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

We’re back baby!

After what seemed like an eternity NASCAR is back! If you haven’t had a chance, please check out my What’s New in 2022 article before going forward. It’s fine, I’ll wait…. ok welcome back! I want to be honest and tell you upfront that I have no idea what is going to happen and how these cars are going to react to the tracks to start the season. Any content provider who tells you they do is lying to you because even the NASCAR teams don’t know what to expect so how can someone from the outside?

Practice speed breakdown

Since this track is set up as a .25 mile track the lap times are quick and the speeds are low. Chase Elliott was tops after Saturday’s two hour session with a top lap time of 13.455 and a top speed of 66.89 MPH. Elliott also had the best 15, 20, 25, and 30 lap average. Kevin Harvick was second quickest at only .002 seconds behind Elliott while also having the best 5-lap average. Kyle Larson, the 2021 champion, had the best lap average and Kyle Busch had the best 10-lap average.

About this article

This race is unique and in turn my breakdown for it will be as well. Sunday’s 23 car field will be set by four heat races (top 4 from each qualify for main event) followed by two last chance qualifiers (three drivers from each qualify) and the one driver who didn’t qualify through the qualifier races who had the most points in 2021. Since the field will be set so close to the start of the race I cannot give you my usually style of article, so I will go heat by heat and tell who I think moves on into the field. It will be vital that you come back to discord before lock to see my updates.

Each of the four qualifying heats are only 25 laps so it will be difficult for the cars starting towards the back to get into the top four. As for the last chance qualifiers, they are 50 laps each which will give the drivers starting towards the back in those more time to get through the field.

NASCAR DFS: Heat 1 (Driver names in bold are my picks to transfer)

Heat 1 Lineup: #18-Kyle Busch, #99-Daniel Suarez, #47-Ricky Stenhouse Jr., #12-Ryan Blaney, #11-Denny Hamlin, #10-Aric Almirola, #78-BJ McLeod, #38-Todd Gilliland, #1-Ross Chastain

Both Kyle Busch and Daniel Suarez appear to be locks for the main event on Sunday. Both Busch and Suarez looked fast in practice and put down two of the top times in qualifying. Because of his price Suarez ($5.9K) is one of the top plays in this race. As long he qualifies for the race, Suarez makes fitting practically any build you want possible. I expect to be using him in the majority of my builds on Sunday

Others from this heat to qualify LCQ: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

NASCAR DFS: Heat 2 (Driver names in bold are my picks to transfer)

Heat 2 Lineup: #8-Tyler Reddick, #41-Cole Custer, #21-Harrison Burton, #48-Alex Bowman, #23-Bubba Wallace, #3-Austin Dillon, #14-Chase Briscoe, #6-Brad Keselowski, #19-Martin Truex Jr.

This group is pretty tricky to predict with only Tyler Reddick seeming like a sure thing. Chase Briscoe was a top three car in practice but put down a terrible qualifying lap which leads me to believe his car is in race trim and better on the long run. Both Cole Custer and Alex Bowman will have track position to start the race so I think that is what will get them through into the field.

Wallace and Burton were bad in practice but did seem to make adjustments to improve their cars so they could beat out Briscoe, but I think it’s unlikely. Similar to Suarez, Reddick ($6.7K) is priced at a point where he is a top play and is my favorite play under $7K.

Others from this heat to qualify in LCQ: Bubba Wallace, Austin Dillon

NASCAR DFS: Heat 3 (Driver names in bold are my picks to transfer)

Heat 3 Lineup: #31-Justin Haley, #9-Chase Elliott, #24-William Byron, #20-Christopher Bell, #16-AJ Allmendinger, #4-Kevin Harvick, #17-Chris Buescher, #7-Corey LaJoie, #51-Cody Ware

Chase Elliott was the top car in practice and laid down a great lap in qualifying on Saturday. Elliott is my top play from the $9K plus drivers because of this. Using Suarez and Reddick with Kyle Busch and Elliott leaves you $9.6K per driver for your final two spots which allows you to roster practically whoever you want. Justin Haley ($5.3K) is another top value play on this slate. Haley was top 5 in both individual lap time and average lap time on Saturday in practice as well as putting down the third best qualifying lap.

Others from this heat to qualify in LCQ: William Byron, Christopher Bell

NASCAR DFS: Heat 4 (Driver names in bold are my picks to transfer)

Heat 4 Lineup: #22-Joey Logano, #5-Kyle Larson, #34-Michael McDowell, #77-Landon Cassill, #2-Austin Cindric, #43-Erik Jones, #15-Ryan Preece, #45-Kurt Busch, #42-Ty Dillon

This is the weakest heat by far with only two drivers who stand out as quality drivers. Both Joey Logano and Kyle Larson are locks but outside of them it’s pretty open. Any of the other drivers in this field could come through but I don’t think there will be much of a desire to roster any of them. Landon Cassill was top 10 in practice and put down a good qualifying lap as well. Cassill does potentially have some value if he finds his way into the main event coming in at $5K.

Others from this heat to qualify in LCQ: Kurt Busch

Once again, make sure you are in discord after the heat races are complete where I will update my picks based on the results of the qualifying heats and starting positions.

Thank you for reading my weekly NASCAR DFS Pit Stop articles and make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS: What’s new in 2022

rmferenc@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

As we welcome in the new year, we also need to welcome in changes, many, many, changes coming to NASCAR in 2022. We have plenty of drivers changing teams, new teams, new sponsors, and the like but one big change coming this season is the new NextGen car for the Cup Series. This will be the 7th generation car for the Cup Series and arguably the most drastic change. One thing that seems to be making everyone happy is that NASCAR has announced that they will be running the 670 horsepower engine for all tracks (except SuperSpeedways and Atlanta) in 2022. Most 1.5-mile ovals ran the 550 horsepower engine that led to boring races with very little passing.

NASCAR DFS: NextGen Car

When the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season kicks off at the Daytona 500 with the Next-Gen car, it’ll be the first one to have aluminum wheels, rack-and-pinion steering, and an independent rear suspension. And those are just a few of the changes made to the new cars. These cars were initially slated to begin in the 2021 season, but development was paused because of COVID-19.

Without getting into too many details, the bodies are now symmetrical, with dimensions that are similar to the regular cars you drive every day. The body is now assembled with carbon-fiber-reinforced plastic panels that are more flexible, durable, and cheaper than the old sheet metal bodies. This will make it easier for the smaller teams to compete because their expenses will be less. The suspension has also been overhauled, with the addition of four-way adjustable dampers and the switch from an out-of-date live rear axle to a sophisticated independent setup.

The new aerodynamic elements beneath the car are also new and drastically changed. Unlike in the previous generation car, there’s now a rear diffuser that NASCAR will switch based on the track type. This eliminates the cost of engineering exposed pieces for the car’s underside to create more downforce. Unfortunately, the new underfloor has led to heat being trapped inside the cockpit. This forced NASCAR to redesign the exhaust to be three feet shorter and exit behind the front wheels as opposed to in front of the rear wheels to combat the excessive heat.

NASCAR DFS: New Faces In New Places

Like with all professional sports, NASCAR has its own crazy offseason. Drivers move from the lower series’ up and move from team to team. In this section, I will go over a few of the changes that will have the greatest effect on the Cup Series.

Brad Keselowski leaves Penske

Brad Keselowski spent over a decade in the #2 Penske Ford but he has left the team he won his Cup Series Championship with to take over the #6 for Jack Roush. Keselowski is also part owner now of the team formally known as Roush-Fenway racing and it has been rebranded at RFK Racing.

Fantasy Analysis: This is a step down in equipment and funding for Keselowski which lowers his value in DFS weekly. I think we will need to see how this team fares in the Next-Gen car and see how he is priced before we can safely roster Keselowski weekly.

Taking over for Keselowski in the vacated #2 is former Xfinity Series Champion Austin Cindric. Personally, I love this move for Cindric and I think he will be a force in this series and is my pick for NASCAR Rookie of the Year.

Fantasy Analysis: Cindric will be in the mix every week in the #2 and will be lock-button for every road course race in 2022.

Kurt Busch joins 23XI

Bubba Wallace had a good year in the first season for 23XI Racing and it will only get better with the addition of former Cup Series Champion, Kurt Busch. After three seasons with Chip Ganassi Racing, Busch will switch from the #1 Chevy to the new #45 Monster Energy Toyota.

Fantasy Analysis: I expect a lot from Busch, and Wallace, in 2022. I think this team can produce weekly top 10’s and compete for 2 playoff spots. Kurt brings a plethora of experience and will help Wallace and this team grow.

Trackhouse becomes a two car organization

Last season Trackhouse debuted with Daniel Suarez in the #99 as a single-car team, but this offseason Justin Marks (owner) purchased Chip Ganassi Racing making them a two-car team. In that second car will be Ross Chastain. Chastain will move from the #42 to the #1 that was vacated by Kurt Busch.

Fantasy Analysis: There should be some improvement with two cars now for Trackhouse, but I do not expect them to be a factor for wins or a championship, yet. Most weeks I would expect these two cars to be in the mid-teens to low 20’s.

Kaulig Racing purchases two charters

Kaulig has had consistent success in the Xfinity Series and even earned a win with AJ Allmendinger in the Cup Series in 2021. This season Kaulig will field two full-time Cup cars with Justin Haley running the full season in the #31 while there will be a rotating cast of drivers in the #16. Daniel Hemric, Noah Gragson, and AJ Allmendinger .

Fantasy Analysis: Justin Haley is a good driver and should be competitive in the lower mid-tier this season. Kaulig is exceptional at road courses and superspeedway’s so I expect to give them a hard look when we are at those track types.

GMS makes the jump from Truck Series to Cup Series

GMS didn’t leave the Truck Series, but they did purchase a charter in the Cup Series. Ty Dillon was tapped to drive the #94 for GMS, but that didn’t last long. In December GMS purchased a majority stake in Richard Petty Motorsports creating GMS Petty. Ty Dillon remained with the team, but was moved from the 94 car to the #42 teaming up with Erik Jones who will drive the #43 again in 2022.

Fantasy Analysis: We saw Jones and the 43 team improve and have some decent runs late in the season. Ty Dillon had a few good outings in the Xfinity Series but being back in the Cup Series he could be a backmarker most weeks. Both of these drivers will be priced in the high-end value tier each week and depending on qualifying they should be viable.

NASCAR DFS: Xfinity Series

I won’t go into the same detail for the Xfinity Series, and also the subsequent Truck Series section, as I did the Cup, but I will just quickly give you some of the key moves in each series.

Junior Motorsports brought two part-time drivers back in full time rides for 2022. Sam Mayer will be in the #1 while Josh Berry will take over in the #8. Both drivers will be title contenders and be two of our top drivers weekly
Sheldon Creed moves up to the Xfinity Series and will drive the #2 car for Richard Childress Racing. This team has won championships before and were in the playoffs with Myatt Snider last season. I expect big things for this team and Creed. Austin Hill will be joining Creed in the #21 at RCR and should be a good car.
Landon Cassill and Daniel Hemric take over for Justin Haley and Jeb Burton in the Kaulig Racing Chevy’s. Hemric is the reigning champion while driving for JGR. These are two really good drivers and will be contenders each and every race.
Last years 18 year old sensation, Ty Gibbs, will be full time in the Xfinity Series with his grandfthers team. I believe he will take over in the 18 car for the departed champion, Daniel Hemric.
Our Motorsports is now a three car team. Brett Moffitt returns in the 02 and joining him will be Anthony Alfredo and Jeb Burton. All three of these cars are mid-pack cars and depending on their prices they could be some good value each week.
Myatt Snider will be the full time driver of the #31 for Jordan Anderson. This team was competitive each week and having one driver will give them the stability to compete for top 10’s weekly.

NASCAR DFS: Truck Series

Tyler Ankrum takes over the #16 truck after Austin Hill left for the Xfinity Series. This is a good team and a good truck that will compete for a title.
Grant Enfiger will be full-time with GMS in 2022 taking over in the #23 truck. Enfinger will be a front runner for a championship.
Matt DiBenedetto will have to work his way back to the top series in NASCAR by going backwards to the Truck Series. In 2022 Matty D will be driving full time in the #25 for Rackley W.A.R.
Todd Gilliland has jumped up into the Cup Series and the 2020 and 2021 runner up in the Truck Series, Zane Smith, will take over for him. Smith will remain in the title picture in this truck in 2022.

Thank you everyone for reading the 2022 NASCAR season preview! Don’t forget to come back in early February for my weekly articles breaking down every single race in all three top NASCAR series. Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Phoenix – Championship Race 11/7

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Thank you!

As this is the last race for all three NASCAR series’ this weekend I just wanted to take a minute to thank everyone for reading my article throughout the season. I also want to thank everyone for interacting with me in discord each and every weekend and for making this our best season ever. I will miss the races each weekend, but luckily NASCAR has an incredibly short offseason and we will be back on Sunday, February 6th for the NASCAR Clash from the Los Angeles Coliseum! Hopefully, GravMatt52 and IDrago15 can get tickets and get to enjoy the show!

On with the show!

Phoenix is a short flat track that runs similar to Richmond and New Hampshire so those are two places where we can look at results to see how drivers ran in conjunction with Phoenix. Last season at the championship race the four contenders finished in the top four positions and don’t be surprised to see that happen on Sunday. It is important to look at drivers who have run well here in the past as well as the other tracks mentioned above. Earlier this season Championship 4 contender Martin Truex Jr. led just 64 laps but won, barely beating out Joey Logano who led a race-high 143 laps.

Practice and qualifying are back!

This week we have live practice and qualifying for the finale, as it should be. We will get to see who has a good car and who needs to work on theirs before they hit the track on Sunday afternoon. I have also added a tier for the Championship 4 for this race. My strategy will most likely be to get two of these drivers into your lineups on Sunday. Stacking 3 of them may be difficult because the value tier is not particularly deep for this race.

NASCAR DFS: Championship 4

(Listed in salary order)

Kyle Larson ($11,500)

Starting Position: 1st

2021 has been the year of Kyle Larson as he redeems himself. Larson is the clear and obvious favorite for the championship coming into Sunday’s finale and is priced accordingly. In practice on Friday, Larson ran the second-fastest lap, was the best in 5 lap average, and late in the session he managed to run the top line well and had the 2nd best 10 lap average. It will be hard to bet against the 5 team on Sunday, and I wouldn’t suggest doing so.

Denny Hamlin ($11,000)

Starting Position: 6th

Hamlin is widely considered the best driver in NASCAR to never win a title, and I think he can keep that moniker after Sunday’s race. Personally, I would love to see Hamlin wreck on the first lap and go home with a last-place finish (I’m a big fan of the 48 car and Alex Bowman). Now, that won’t happen, but instead, Hamlin should be running towards the front all day and I consider him a lock for a top 5. Hamlin has finished in the top 5 in four of the last five races here as well. In 2021, Hamlin has the best speed ranking at this track type, the best average running position (4.5), and led the most laps on average (109.5) per race.

Chase Elliott ($10,800)

Starting Position: 2nd

Obviously, Elliott has a good track history here considering he won the 2020 title on this very track by winning the race. In fact, Elliott has been the best driver at this track since NASCAR began running this package in 2020. In practice on Friday, Elliott had the 4th best 5 lap average, 3rd best 10 lap average, and the 2nd best 15 lap average. It would appear that Elliott and his team have set this car up to get better over the long run, which will see a lot of on Sunday.

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,400)

Starting Position: 12th

After Larson, Truex is my favorite play in this race. Truex has been great at Phoenix in his career and won the last time the series was here. In 2021, Truex won here (like I mentioned), also won at Richmond, and has an average finish of 2.3 (if you take out his wreck in the rain at New Hampshire). Truex and the 19 team are running the same chassis that they ran at the spring Phoenix race and they have set this car up for the long run which was evident in practice as Truex has the best 15 lap average run. If you wanted to bet on someone else winning the championship on Sunday other than Larson, my money would be on MTJ.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier

Brad Keselowski ($9,100)

Starting Position: 11th

Keselowski was great in practice on Friday coming out of it with the best single lap average speed. This will be Kes’s last race in the #2 for Team Penske as he transitions to the #6 next season. Keselowski will want to go out on top and if practice is any indication he will be a threat on Sunday. I am particularly interested in Keselowski because of his price. He makes the two Champ 4 driver builds easier to make work. Keselowski has back-to-back top 5’s here and has an average finish of 6.8 in his last four races here.

Ryan Blaney ($9,500)

Starting Position: 4th

Blaney is another driver who has both run well at Phoenix and looked fast in practice, oh and he also is too cheap but helps us make the builds we want, work. In practice on Friday, Blaney came out with the 7th best single lap, 2nd best 5 lap average, and the best 10 lap average. Blaney’s car is also set up for the long run as they were one of two teams to run 20 consecutive laps in which he was the faster of the two. I expect Ryan Blaney to be a top 10 car with top 5 upside on Sunday.

Other Options: Kevin Harvick ($9,300 – P9) – Harvick is a NINE-time winner at Phoenix. Kyle Busch ($9,800 – P13)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Alex Bowman ($8,200)

Starting Position: 14th

Bowman was dominant at this race back in 2016 leading 194 laps from the pole, but since then it has not been great for him. In 2021 though, Bowman has excelled at this track type including a victory at the first Richmond race and finishing between 9th and 13th in the other three races. Bowman finished 13th in the spring race here, his best finish since another 13th place finish since the spring race of 2018. Bowman looks to be a top 10 contender on Sunday but is more likely to finish in the low teens.

Bubba Wallace ($7,700)

Starting Position: 25th

Wallace has been strong at Phoenix over the last two seasons with three straight top 20 finishes. In the spring race here, Wallace finished 16th. Wallace was 5th best late in a run in the race as well as having the 13th best speed ranking. I view Wallace as a mid teens driver on Sunday. Listen, there are better drivers in this tier but my goal is to help you build lineups and you can’t get two $10K+ drivers and two $8.5K drivers either so drivers like Wallace help us get the top tier guys we want.

Joey Logano ($8,900)

Starting Position: 10th

Logano is a top 5 car for me on Sunday, but we will need to sacrifice either Keselowski or Blaney to fit in Logano. I am not opposed to that strategy though. Logano has been good at Phoenix in the past and at this track type in 2021 he has been the best, literally. In 2021, Logano has finished in the top 5 in every race at short flat tracks (the only driver in the series to do so) and has the best average finish in the series with a 3.5. Logano won here in the spring race in 2020 and has finished between 1st and 3rd in the last three races here. In practice on Friday, Logano never made a long run but the other Penske cars did and they were fast so I expect Logano to be just as fast on Sunday.

Other Options: Austin Dillon ($7,300 – P23), Matt DiBenedetto ($7,900 – P15), Christopher Bell ($8,700 – P8), Kurt Busch ($8,400 – P5)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Chris Buescher ($6,400) P26 – Buescher had the fastest car of this tier in practice on Friday. Half way through the practice session Buescher was 19th, but he ended up with the 17th best single lap and the 15th best 10 lap average.
Daniel Suarez ($6,800) P17- Suarez projects as a mid-teens driver for me on Sunday. While his car was not that fast on Friday, but he has been good at this track type in 2021. Suarez has an average finish of 18.5 at short flat tracks and has not finished lower than 21st in any of the four races.
Chase Briscoe ($6,200) P22 – Briscoe was running in the low teens in the spring here but had a pit road speeding penalty late and ended up finishing 22nd. At Richmond a few weeks ago, Briscoe finished 16th, his best finish at this track type in 2021. I view Briscoe as a mid teens driver on Sunday.
Ryan Preece ($5,800) P31 – Preece hasn’t performed well at Phoenix but he is usually a mid-twenties driver. I expect much of the same from Preece on Sunday
Justin Haley ($5,600) P29 – Haley finished 24th in his only Cup Series race at Phoenix. Haley finished mid to high twenties in the other races at this track type in 2021 and should be considered to finish around the same.
Garrett Smithley ($4,600) P38 – Smithley isn’t to do much in this race, but he could pull out a top 30. Realistically, Smithley is a low 30’s driver which may just be enough to make value.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Phoenix – Championship Race 11/6

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Xfinity series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then, you know the drill, but welcome if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles. Since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Thank you!

On with the show!

Phoenix is a short flat track that runs similar to Richmond and New Hampshire so those are two places where we can look at results to see how drivers ran in conjunction with Phoenix. Earlier this season Austin Cindric led 119 of 200 laps on his way to a dominant victory. That race was very similar to his championship win in 2020 where he led 72 of 206 laps on his way to victory lane. Cindric is the clear favorite on Saturday night, but you cannot rule out the other three drivers in this race. We have to remember that this race in the spring was full of wrecks and engine issues for the JRM teams. I don’t expect that we have that type of race on Saturday. Looking back at last year’s championship race there were only 4 cars that didn’t finish and one wreck involving three of them. Those four cars were all back of the pack-type cars and did not affect the championship. We should see a similar race to that one on Saturday, not the wreck-filled engine failure party we saw in March of this year.

Practice and Qualifying are back!

This weekend all three races will have traditional practice and qualifying so the articles will be a little different since I don’t have starting position at the time of writing. I will either update the article, in discord or both after qualifying on Saturday. I will be away with my family from Saturday into Sunday so I will not be as available as usual when it comes t updating and answering questions. Just know if the 6 drivers you pick are in the article or the updates I do make in discord, I approve! I would also suggest playing a little lighter than usual for this race because of this.

There is a separate section to break down the Championship 4 for this weekend as well. I believe that the winner of this race will be one of those four drivers so I plan on rostering 1-2 in each lineup. Depending on how they qualify, I could see trying to cram three of them into some lineups as well.

NASCAR DFS: Championship 4

(Ranked in salary order)

Austin Cindric ($11,000) – Practice Speed Ranking: 2nd

Noah Gragson ($10,400) – Practice Speed Ranking: 4th

AJ Allmendinger ($10,200) – Practice Speed Ranking: 7th

Daniel Hemric ($10,000) – Practice Spreed Rankong: 3rd

Like I went over in the open, Cindric has been dominant here in the last two Phoenix races and it is hard to doubt he won’t be again. Gragson had an unfortunate ending to his race here in the spring but traditionally he runs well at Phoenix. Last season, Gragson finished second behind Cindric in this race and finished 7th in the spring 2020 race. If you remove the poor finish from the equation, Gragson has an average finish of 7.5 in his previous four races here.

We say it every week, but is this the week Daniel Hemric finally gets a win? Not for me, but he can easily have a solid day here with a top 5 finish to make value. Hemric has run well here, but those races were in 17-18 when he was racing in the RCR #21, since joining JGR in 2019, it hasn’t been as good for him. Daniel Hemric has three straight poor finishes here after a string of four top 10’s. Hemric did lead 44 laps from the pole here in March before a late-race incident send him back and left him with a 23rd place finish. Hemric has just some bad luck of late here because he knows how to run well at Phoenix, I think that bad luck ends on Saturday and he comes home with a top 5. Traditionally, Allmendinger is not a good short-track driver, but at Phoenix, he has performed well. In three races here in the Xfinity Series, AJ has an average finish of 10th. In March, Allmendinger earned his first top 5 after two finishes of 12th and 13 respectively at Phoenix. Allmendinger has run great all season, but he seems like the dark horse to win the championship.

My Prediction: Austin Cindric dominates this race again on his way to his second straight title.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier

Justin Allgaier ($10,600)

Practice Speed Ranking: 9th

Phoenix is probably one of Allgaier’s best tracks, if not his best. Allgaier came back to the Xfinity Series in 2016, and since then he has fared incredibly well. In eleven races at Phoenix since then, Allgaier has had two victories, six top 5’s, and eight top 10’s. Allgaier has also led 476 laps in those eleven races (43.3 per race) and led at least 50 six times. It will be hard to make Allgaier fit with two of the Championship 4 drivers, but there is some decent value in this race where we can make it work.

John Hunter Nemechek ($10,800)

Practice Speed Ranking: 1st

Nemechek will be in the Joe Gibbs #54 car on Saturday night and should be expected to compete for the win. This car has seen an All-Star cast of drivers take it to victory lane, including Nemechek at Texas three weeks ago. JHN has run three Xfinity races at this track, but none since 2019. In his three races from 2018-19, Nemechek has never finished lower than 9th and has a 4th place finish as his best. Those races were run in inferior equipment though, nothing on the level of this car. Like with Allgaier, I fully expect Nemechek to push the Championship 4 drivers for the win in this race, unless Hemric is leading then he could become a blocker for him.

Other Options: Justin Haley ($9,100): Crashed in the spring but had three straight top 10’s prior. Harrison Burton ($9,700): In three races here, Burton has three top 12 finishes including a second place in spring 2020.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

With all the drivers in the top tier that we want to play this week the mid-tier may not factor into your lineups too much, but we still have some good value here as well that can fit into three dominator type builds

Jeremy Clement (S7,600)

Practice Speed Ranking: 17th

Clements is having a great season in 2021 and looks to wrap it up with a solid day on Saturday. Phoenix actually has been one of Clements’s better tracks over the past twelve months. Clements has finished 10th in back-to-back races here and has five finishes of 18th or better in his last six.

Sam Mayer ($8,600)

Practice Speed Ranking: 12th

Mayer has had some growing pains this season but he has become a top 10 contender every week late in the season. I know the price is high for him this week comparatively speaking. We have a lot of drivers over $10K we want to roster and Mayer doesn’t fit those builds necessarily. But we aren’t the only ones who are going to be building lineups with three $10K drivers, so Mayer will come in at incredibly low ownership I predict. In lineups where we roster two, say Cindric/Allgaier builds, Mayers fits beautifully. Now, this all depends on where he qualifies. If Mayer qualifies top 5 he may not be a good play, so make sure to be around late in the afternoon on Saturday for an update on him.

Mayer finished 4th last week for his second straight top 10. Mayer also has three top 10’s in his last four races and four in his last seven. I see Mayer as a fringe top 5 driver, but a top 10 lock on Saturday.

Brandon Brown ($7,300)

Practice Speed Ranking: 30th

Brown was third here in the spring and has three straight top 12 finishes at Phoenix. Since his win at Talladega, Brown has not had a good run of it, but we know that he has good equipment he just had some bad luck with two wrecks in his last three races. Brown did have a great run at Richmond earlier this season finishing 8th. I see Brown as a low-teens driver again on Saturday.

Other Options: Michael Annett ($8,400): This will be Annett’s last race as a full-time driver and he will do everything he can to make it a good one. Annett does have three top 10’s in his last four races here (if you remove his engine failure in the spring). Brett Moffitt ($8,200), Sage Karam ($7,200)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Bayley Currey ($5,900) – Currey ran the 26th best lap on Friday night in practice. Recently, Currey has been great at Phoenix in the Xfinity Series. Earlier this season Currey ran the #74 to a 7th place finish and in this race in 2020 he finished 15th.
Alex Labbe ($6,700) – Labbe is expensive but he is incredbily consistent at Phoenix. If you take out his crash finish earlier this season, he has an average finish of 21.6 in 5 races. Labbe was 16th in practice on Friday as well.
Dylan Lupton ($6,800)
Joe Graf Jr. ($4,900) – Graf ran 33rd in practice but has mid 20’s upside on Saturday.
JJ Yeley ($6,200)
Josh Williams ($5,700) – Williams ran a top 20 lap in practice and should also be a top 20 car on Saturday. If Williams qualifies where he ran in practice he is a solid play.
Kyle Weatherman ($5,600) – Ran well at this track last season (17th) and will probably be a top 25 car on Saturday.

Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Truck Series Phoenix – Championship Race 11/5

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Truck series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then, you know the drill, but welcome if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Thank you!

On with the show!

Phoenix is a short flat track that runs similar to Richmond and New Hampshire so those are two places where we can look at results to see how drivers ran in conjunction with Phoenix. Outside of those two tracks and since the Truck Series hasn’t run at Phoenix or New Hampshire in 2021, we can also use Nashville as a similar track type. Looking back at this race last season, Sheldon Creed won the race and the championship. Coming in second was Zane Smith which definitely bumps up his chances for the championship on Friday night. Obviously, John Hunter Nemechek is the favorite in this race because he has run well at practically every track this season and he also won the Richmond race in 2021.

This weekend all three races will have traditional practice and qualifying so the articles will be a little different since I don’t have starting position at the time of writing. I will update either the article, in discord or both after Truck Series qualifying later this afternoon (5:05 pm EDT). I have added a separate section to break down the Championship 4 for this weekend as well. I believe that the winner of this race will be one of those four drivers so I plan on rostering 1-2 in each lineup. Depending on how they qualify, I could see trying to cram three of them into some lineups as well.

As with every week, each tier of drivers is listed in order of preference

NASCAR DFS: Championship 4

(Ranked in salary order)

John Hunter Nemechek ($10,800) – Practice speed ranking: 9th

Zane Smith ($10,400) – Practice speed ranking: 12th

Ben Rhodes ($10,200) – Practice speed ranking: 5th

Matt Crafton ($10,000) – Practice speed ranking: 18th

Like I mentioned in the open, Nemechek is the favorite in this race followed by Smith for me. Last week, Zane Smith won his way into the championship race but it was not a fluke. Smith is a solid young driver in great equipment and should not be taken lightly on Friday night. Earlier this season at Nashville, Smith finished 4th and as I mentioned in the open he finished 2nd here in his only race at Phoenix last season. At Richmond, Zane has finishes of 11th and 14th, but despite not being as good as his Nashville and Phoenix finishes they are good finishes. Rhodes is probably the worst of the championship when it comes to Phoenix, and by that I mean he’s the only one without a top 3 finish. Rhodes may not have a top 3 finish, but he does have two top 5’s and three top 10’s. Last season Rhodes finished 7th in this race and in 2019 he came home 4th.

In 2019, Matt Crafton won the Truck Series title without winning a single race, and in 2021 he will be looking to repeat that performance (unless he wins on Friday). Crafton is the longest-tenured and most experienced driver in the Championship 4 and is the only one with a previous championship (Three to be exact). Points don’t matter in this race so Crafton will probably bide his time and just try to avoid any possible damage and make a push to be the highest finisher of the four drivers in the hunt for the title. Make sure to check back after qualifying though because these four are NOT guaranteed to start in the top 4 spots so we could end up with some value here.

My prediction: Zane Smith wins this race and his first NASCAR championship

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier

Todd Gilliland ($9,800)

Practice speed ranking: 1st

Gilliland ran the fastest single lap in practice and has the second-best 5 lap average. In his career in the Truck Series, Gilliand has two top 10’s at Phoenix and hasn’t finished lower than 17th. Gilliland will probably qualify towards the front, which will lower his ownership. Between his speed in practice and his ability to run well at Phoenix and his 6th place finish at Richmond this season I think Gilliland is a top 5 driver this week.

Stewart Friesen ($9,500)

Practice speed ranking: 10th

Phoenix is one of Friesen’s best tracks and he should perform well here again on Friday night. Friesen has not finished lower than 6th in any of the previous four races here. Included in that string of great runs is his win in 2019 where he led 44 laps. Last season in this race, Friesen finished 6th.

Sheldon Creed ($10,600)

Practice speed ranking: 2nd

I know Creed is not happy not being able to defend his title in this race, but as he moves up to the Xfinity Series full time in 2022 nothing would make him happier than to end this season with a victory. If one of the Championship 4 does not win this race, it will be Creed who does. Creed won here in 2020 and led 27 laps in the process. Prior to that, he had finishes of 10th and 12th but the 24-year-old is now a more experienced and better driver than he was in those seasons. Creed is expensive, but he has a fast truck that will be towards the front most of the night and could easily come across first at the end of lap 150.

Other Options: Chandler Smith ($9,600), Grant Enfinger ($9,100)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Tanner Gray ($7,500)

Practice speed ranking: 6th

Gray has run two races here the past two seasons and he has finishes of 17th and 15th. Last week at Martinsville, Gray finished 3rd, his first top 5 on the season. Gray has a fast truck this week and if he qualifies in the teens he is a must-play because he has top 10 upside. I do think Gray will be semi-popular because of his low price and how well he fits with three dominator builds. I am willing to look past him potentially being chalky because of the upside Gray has combined with the fact we have other ways to get different.

Christian Eckes ($8,900)

Practice speed ranking: 7th

Eckes is back in the #98 for ThorSport on Friday and should be considered a top 10 threat in this race. This is Eckes’s third career race at Phoenix and he fared exceptionally well in his last two. In this race last season, Eckes finished 4th and in 2018 he finished 9th here. In practice on Friday, Eckes ran the 7th fastest single lap and had the 10th fastest 5 lap average.

Taylor Gray ($7,300)

Practice speed ranking: 11th

No, you’re not seeing things, both Tanner and Taylor make the list for Friday’s race. Taylor was also fast in practice like Tanner was on Friday. Gray had the 11th fastest single lap and was 9th best in 5 lap average speed. Taylor ran his fourth career Truck Series last week and finished 8th, his career-best. This #17 truck went to victory lane at Nashville earlier this season with Ryan Preece behind the wheel. I do not see that happening on Friday, but this truck is fast and if they run a similar setup to Nashville they should have a good finish.

Other Options: Ty Dillon ($8,100 – Practice rank: 17th), Jack Wood ($7,200 – Practice rank: 8th)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier

Austin Wayne Self ($6,000)
Spencer Boyd ($4,600)
Tyler Hill ($5,600)
Jordan Anderson ($6,800)
Lawless Alan ($6,500)
Cory Roper ($5,900)
Dean Thompson ($5,000)
Willie Allen ($5,600)

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Premium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Martinsville 10/31

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

This is it…until next week

Welcome to Martinsville week where we decide the final four drivers who will compete for the title next week. Just as a personal opinion, Martinsville is not the track that should be deciding who gets to go to the Championship 4, but here we are so let’s get at it. Martinsville is NASCAR’s oldest track and there has been a NASCAR race here every year since 1949. Martinsville is also the shortest and slowest track on the circuit but it does not lack for action or an inordinate amount of cautions. This race will get crazy at the end of the two stages and of course as the checkered flag gets closer to waving. Drivers will be trying to get all the stage points they can and also the there Penske drivers will all be fighting for the win as well.

This is a long, 500 lap race and because of this, we will need to load up on dominators. Since you need to get those laps-led bonus points, we will need to find some value. This is the exact reason why a driver priced at $5,900 or less has been in EVERY optimal lineup for the last three races here. There are not a huge number of drivers in this price range that look good, but there is at least one.

It’s Kyle Larson’s world and we are all just living in it.

Larson is the only driver who has clinched his spot in the finale on the back of three straight wins. Larson is the first driver in over thirty years to win three straight races twice in a year (Dale Earnhardt). Both Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin look to be locks to make the final, barring something catastrophic happening to either of them. So, that leaves the final five drivers competing for one spot. Only Joey Logano is in a must-win situation, but if you are the other four drivers and you see Logano leading late you will have to do everything you can to get past him. All of this is will make for a fun and interesting afternoon on Sunday.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier

Once again Kyle Larson ($11,800 – P1) projects as the highest-scoring driver, and why not. Larson has dominated at every track type we’ve been to in 2021. At the first Martinsville race this season, Larson did finish 5th but did not lead any laps. I fully expect him to take the early lead from the pole and lead a good amount of laps but he may just drive around, keep his car clean and finish top 10. Larson will be in some of my lineups, but I won’t have 100% exposure like I have the last few weeks.

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,400)

Starting Position: 4th

Everything points to Truex having an outstanding day on Sunday. First, Truex is running his Auto-Owners Insurance paint scheme which when he runs this scheme he traditionally has some of his best races. Since 2020, MTJ has run this scheme 15 times and has one win, eight top 5’s, ten top 10’s, and has led 776 laps. Needless to say, Truex usually runs great in this paint scheme. At Martinsville, Truex has been dominant with three wins in the last four races. Truex also has six top 5’s and seven top 10’s in his last eight races here. If Larson doesn’t win this race, don’t be surprised to see the #19 Toyota in victory lane on Sunday.

Denny Hamlin ($10,700)

Starting Position: 3rd

Hamlin isn’t as dominant here at Martinsville as Truex is, but this is clearly one of Denny’s best tracks. Hamlin is a five-time winner at Martinsville and has led 490 laps since 2018. Now, Hamlin hasn’t won here since 2015, but since 2018 Hamlin does own four top 5’s and has only finished lower than 12th once in seven races. Hamlin will compete for the win on Sunday, but he should be a lock for another top 5.

Joey Logano ($9,500)

Starting Position: 5th

Logano has to win or go home (not really, he still races next week) and if there is a track he can do it at, it’s Martinsville. Coming into Sunday’s race here, Logano has four straight top 10’s and has six top 10’s and a win in seven races since 2018. Like with Truex and Hamlin before him, Logano has led a large number of laps, 573 to be exact in those seven races. I see Logano as an outside favorite to win, but a lock for a top 10 unless he wrecks himself trying to win this race.

There are two constants in the last three races here, a driver priced at $5.9K on DK will be in the optimal, and so will Ryan Blaney ($9,700 – P8). Since 2020, Blaney has been in all three optimal lineups which just shows how well Blaney runs at Martinsville. Sticking with the theme, since 2018, Blaney has had five top 5’s in seven races and has led 372 laps. This is also a real example of how getting dominator points is key. Blaney started from P4 but finished 11th here earlier this season, but led 157 laps in that race which made up for his negative 7 in place differential.

Other Options: Chase Elliott ($10,100 – P2), Brad Keselowski ($9,300 -P6), Kevin Harvick ($9,000 – P9)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Christopher Bell ($8,400)

Starting Position: 12th

Christopher Bell has greatly improved his standing at Martinsville in each of his three races. Earlier this season, Bell finished 7th after starting 23rd. In that race, Bell had an average running position of 10.6 and had the 10th best speed ranking. Bell is quietly one of the hottest drivers in the series, over the last four races he has a series-best average finish of 6th. I see Bell as a solid top 10 play with top 5 upside.

Kurt Busch ($7,900)

Starting Position: 10th

At Martinsville, Kurt Busch has been one of the series’s best drivers in recent years. While the focus is on the playoff drivers, Busch will be looking to steal a victory here, a place he’s won at twice already. In his last seven races here, Kurt has an average finish of tenth, but if you remove his race earlier this season he has an average finish of 8.1.

Bubba Wallace ($7,600)

Starting Position: 17th

Wallace has traditionally run well at Martinsville. Earlier this season, Wallace finished 16th, his fourth finish of 17th or better in his last five races. Wallace has been improving throughout the season. Since Bristol (minus Texas where he wrecked), Wallace has an average finish of 12.2. I see Wallace as a top 15 driver on Sunday with top 10 upside.

Other Options: Alex Bowman ($8,700 – P13) – Before he had a late-race incident this spring, Bowman had finished 6th in back-to-back races at Martinsville. I think Bowman will be a low-owned play that could finish top 10. Matt DiBenedetto ($7,700 – P21) – Matty D comes in with three straight top 12’s and has the 15th best speed ranking at this track type this season.

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Chris Buescher ($5,900) – P15: Buescher is a good performer at Martinsville and has finished 12th or 13th in three of the last four. I see Buescher as a top 15 car on Sunday and is a great low owned play on Sunday.
Anthony Alfredo ($5,400) – P32: Alfredo is not someone who typically ranks this high, but he had a good race here in the spring (26th), is cheap, and starts far enough back that he can’t hurt you. Alfredo will also probably come in arounf sub 10% ownership
Ryan Preece ($6,200) – P26: Preece has three finishes of 19th or better in his last five races here. Earlier this season, Preece was running in the teens, but had alternator issues and then wrecked late. I see Preece as a top 20 car this week.
Cole Custer ($6,600) – P24: Custer had a poor finish in his first run at Martinsville in 2020, but since then he was back-to-back finishes in the teens. Last season in this race Custer finished 13th, and earlier this season he started 26th and came home 18th. Custer is currently on a run of four straight top 20 finishes and I fully expect that to continue on Sunday with another finish in the mid-teens.
Corey Lajoie ($6,000) – P29: Lajoie is typically a low to mid 20’s driver at Martinsville. Earlier this season, Lajoie was running in the low 20’s when he wrecked and finished 37th. Before that race, Lajoie had three straight finishes between 18th and 25th.
Erik Jones ($6,900) – P28: If you fade the mid-tier this week, than I really like Jones as an option here. He traditionally runs well and should be a top 20 driver.
Garrett Smithley ($5,200) – P37: Smithley is not going to led laps or run in the top 10, but he can get a top 30 and help you cash. Smithley is a good young driver in ok equipment. He is super cheap, starts next to last, and will carry sub 5% ownership as well. Drivers like Houff, McLeod, and Haley are expected to be higher owned, but I don’t see them exceeding the value of Smithley.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Martinsville 10/30

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles. Since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Running laps on the paperclip

This week, like with the Truck Series and Cup Series, the Xfinity Series has their last race before the season finale next weekend in Phoenix. Austin Cindric and AJ Allmendinger are all but locked in for the finale on points, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be trying to earn the win to guarantee their spot. As we saw last week, there are plenty of non-playoff drivers who can throw a wrench in things like Ty Gibbs did last week.

Earlier this season at Martinsville, Josh Berry ($10,800 – P29) led the most laps and won his first-ever Xfinity race. I don’t believe he will be a threat to win this one in the #31 for Josh Anderson instead of the #8 JRM car he won with earlier this season. Berry is still a solid place differential play but at his salary, I believe there are better options than him for this race. I also think Berry will carry a higher ownership number than he should for this race which also has me looking elsewhere.

Drivers who run up front, stay up front

At the first race from Martinsville this season we saw a lot of drivers who started towards the front stay there all day. In that race, seven drivers who started in the top 10 would finish there and four different drivers led 28 or more laps and they all finished inside the top seven. Five drivers led double-digit laps and all five finished in the top seven as well. Basically what I am saying is we want the drivers who start near the front in our lineups and look for maybe one or two place differential plays.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier

Harrison Burton ($10,300)

Starting Position: 10th

Burton is one of the drivers who need to win this race to get into the Championship four next week, which he has done at this track before. Last season at this race, Harrison won and led 81 laps after starting right where he starts on Saturday, tenth. Earlier this season at Martinsville, Burton started on the pole but ended up finishing 7th and leading 52 laps. Value in this field is not deep and I don’t feel like we can pay up for both Gibbs and Cindric (more on them to come) and get good value in the rest of our lineups but the extra $1K we can save using Burton will definitely help.

Noah Gragson ($10,500)

Starting Position: 9th

Gragson is another driver who likely needs to win to move into the Championship four even though he is currently sitting in fourth place. Martinsville is one of Gragson’s best tracks with an average finish of 2.5 here in two races. Earlier this season Gragson led 12 laps and finished 2nd behind Berry. Gragson is rolling right now with nine top 10’s in his last twelve races and hasn’t finished lower than 12 in any race (outside of the two races he wrecked). Gragson is actually my pick to win this race and clinch his spot in the final next week.

Daniel Hemric ($10,000)

Starting Position: 7th

Hemric is having a career year, but he may need to win this race to move into the Championship 4, which he has still never done. Depending on what drivers like Harrison Burton and Gragson do, he could point his way in. I think we will see a strategy that puts the 18 car towards the front at the end of this race, which could end tragically or end with him scoring a top 5. Earlier this season, Hemric finished 3rd here at Martinsville, his only career Xfinity race here. It’s a very VERY small sample size, but Hemric is an experienced driver and in excellent equipment. There is a downside to Hemric, even though he projects as the 4th highest scoring driver, he also projects as the second-highest owned (our next entry projects as the highest). I will still have some exposure to Hemric, but I will limit it to no more than 50%.

Austin Cindric ($11,200)

Starting Position: 1st

I am liking the builds I can make pairing Cindric with one of the two drivers above. Cindric starts on the pole and I think he gets out early and leads a good portion of the beginning of this race. Even after the competition caution, I think Cindric retains the lead and will be hard to pass. There is some risk from Cindric here without a top 5 on his record but you could look at it as he is due for one here. Gragson is my pick to win, but Cindric will be in the top 3 and clinch his spot in the Championship 4.

Other Options: Ty Gibbs ($11,500 – P2): Like last week, I do like using Gibbs this week but his salary is what makes me not put him higher in this tier. I will probably have some exposure to him but not as much as I would like. Brandon Jones ($9,200 – P8): Jones has performed well here in his career and is cheaper than he should be. A top 5 is possible, but a top 10 is probably more likely. Justin Allgaier ($9,700 – P5): Another driver who is seemingly a lock for a top 10, and could easily win this race. I expect Allgaier to be popular though.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Riley Herbst ($8,000)

Starting Position: 16th

Last season at this race, Herbst had a great race after starting 24th he would finish in 6th. Earlier this season though, Herbst did not have an incident-free race and he ended up finishing 29th two laps down. Herbst is coming off back-to-back top 15 finishes and has five top 15’s including two top 5’s in his last eight races. Herbst has had an up and down season and it seems like right now is an up for Herbst. I think Herbst comes home with a top 10 on Saturday night.

Jeb Burton ($8,600)

Starting Position: 15th

Burton has two finishes of 11th or better in both his races here, including a fourth-place finish in this race last season. Over his last nine races, Burton has two top 5’s, three top 10’s, and only one finish lower than 13th (not including his wreck at Vegas). Ownership on Burton is usually low, and Saturday night should be no different. At this price and with people potentially stacking the top-tier drivers, Burton should go overlooked and could be a great low-owned play.

Michael Annett ($7,800)

Starting Position: 6th

Annett has only run two races at Martinsville in his career, but he has been great in both. Last season at this race, Annett started 11th and finished 8th. Earlier this season, Annett started 10th and finished 10th. I am under the impression people will be scared off of Annett because of his starting position, but he constantly runs inside the top 10 weekly and has back-to-back top 10 finishes. Annett was finishing top 10 almost weekly before his leg injury, and I think he seems to be back to where he was and is healthy finally.

Other Options: Brandon Brown ($7,000 – P17), Justin Haley ($8,800 – P4), Preston Pardus ($8,400 – P38), Jeremy Clements ($7,400 – P18)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

JJ Yeley ($6,600) – P28: Yeley is too cheap for the upside he has in this race, he is an experienced driver who knows his way around Martinsville. As long as he can keep the 17 out of any wrecks, he is a top 20 car.
Stephen Leicht ($5,400) – P37: Leicht has never run an Xfinity race here, but he is an experienced driver who has some limited upside. He is cheap and starts near the back of the field so he can’t hurt you too bad. If he can avoid carnage and be around at the end Leicht could pick up a top 25.
Colin Garrett ($6,100) – P30: Garrett is a good driver in pretty solid equipment this week. I am not expecting a huge day, but a top 20 is definitely a possibility on Saturday.
Jade Buford ($6,400) – P31: Buford has burnt us of late, but he finished 19th here earlier this season. I am hopefully this team has a clean race and we can get another top 20 finish from the 48 car.
Joe Graf Jr. ($4,600) – P32: Graf has had two completely different races in his career at Martinsville. At this race last season, Graf finished 21st and had a monster fantasy day. Earlier in 2021 though, Graf wrecked with 70 laps to go and finished 38th. Graf has run top 30 in four straight races and that is pretty much all we need from him at this price to make value.
Tommy Joe Martins ($5,600) – P19: Martins is a risky GPP play on Saturday, but there is a good shot he performs well here. In the second half of 2021, Martins has been a mid teens to low twenties driver and at Martinsville I expect a similar result. Last fall at this race, Martins finished 16th so that is the kind of upside we can expect from him here.
Matt Mills ($5,100) – P35: Mills has been running some good races of late and starts far enough back that all he really needs is a top 30 to make value. He also helps get the drivers with those big price tags in your lineups.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Truck Series Martinsville 10/30

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Trucks Series finally returns to the track!

After nearly a month off, the Truck Series is finally back on the track in Martinsville for the final race before the Championship Finale in Phoenix next week. Looking at this week though, we have a race with 200 laps which is rare for the Truck Series. Because we have a short track with a lot of laps we will want to focus on getting dominators into our builds first this week and then search for value and mid-tier to fill in. There are the usual suspects at the top of the starting grid, but there is one driver that will probably get overlooked that could lead a lot of laps and potentially win this race.

Another thing about the field for this race is we have a few young drivers in great trucks that I will also want to have exposure to. Unfortunately, the value tier is not great this week, again, but I think some decent plays won’t hurt us too badly and will help us fit the high-priced drivers we need on Saturday.

As with every week, each tier of drivers is listed in order of preference

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier

I am going to just get this part out of the way now, both John Hunter Nemechek ($10,600 – P1) and Sheldon Creed ($10,300 – P4) are tops on my list of drivers. Both of these two were the class of the series in 2021 and should both lead their fair share of laps on Saturday. I want to have exposure to both in my builds and If you are playing one lineup then you need to decide which one you want. Both have a great shot at the win and it comes down to what salary fits your build. My preferred driver would be JHN because I think he takes the lead from the start and holds it for the first 50 laps.

Grant Enfinger ($9,700)

Starting Position: 15th

Enfinger is back in the #98 for ThorSport Racing this week, a truck he has been excellent in this season. Enfinger has been in this truck eleven times this season and if you remove his 21st place finish at Talladega (wrecked) he has an average finish of 5.8 in the other ten races and hasn’t finished lower than 11th in any race. There is a downside to Enfinger this week, he is too cheap. Enfinger will most likely be one of, If not, the highest owned drivers this week, but like I say every week, there is good chalk in NASCAR and Enfinger fits the bill this week. Enfinger won this race last season in the 98 truck and has four top 10’s and three top 5’s in the last five races.

Josh Berry ($11,300)

Starting Position: 25th

Saturday’s race will be Berry’s 9th race in the #25 truck (10th overall) and he has done extremely well in this truck. Berry has not finished outside the top 20 if you remove his one race (Knoxville) where he wrecked. This race was also the dirt track so it’s really hard to count that anyway. In those 7 races, Berry has an average finish of 13.4 and has five top 15 finishes. Berry will not be a threat to win this race and won’t lead laps but he should give some great place differential and should be low owned because of his price.

Zane Smith ($9,500)

Starting Position: 9th

Zane Smith has only run one race here at Martinsville in the Truck Series and in that one race, he finished 3rd. Smith is a nice complimentary piece to any Creed or Nemechek lineups because of his cheap salary. Besides his low salary for the potential top 5 upside, I also believe Smith will not carry much ownership. With drivers like Berry and Kligerman having such huge upside, people will flock to them and will not be able to roster Smith. Over his last two races, Smith has not fared well. But before that, Smith had a run of eight top 10’s in ten races.

Other Options: Johnny Sauter ($10,900 – P22), Parker Kligerman ($11,500 – P30), Chandler Smith ($9,200 – P6)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Taylor Gray ($8,800)

Starting Position: 39th

The younger Gray brother will also most likely be chalky on Saturday but he is also good chalk. Now, there is a chance he doesn’t carry too much ownership because people will likely flock to the PD of Kligermand and/or Berry because of the name-value there. Gray has run three races in this truck with his best finish being a 12th place finish at Gateway. Overall, this #17 truck has been a solid ride all season with four top 12 finishes, including a win by Ryan Preece at Nashville. I see Gray as a low 20’s to high teens driver on Saturday.

Corey Heim ($8,600)

Starting Position: 28th

Heim is an all-star driver in the ARCA Series and the 19-year-old will be getting only his third run in a Truck Series race on Saturday. This will also be Heim’s third run in the Kyle Busch Motorsports #51 truck where he hasn’t been great yet. In his first race at Darlington, Heim wrecked late and finished 23rd, and then at Watkins Glen, he had a better finish, 18th. I expect Heim to keep learning and just trying to gain experience, but a top 20 is likely as long as he can keep the truck on the track Saturday.

Ben Rhodes ($8,000)

Starting Position: 3rd

Rhodes usually runs well at Martinsville, especially recently. In the last four races here, Rhodes has finished 2nd twice and fourth once with his only blemish being a 16th place finish at this race in 2019. Rhodes starts from 3rd which will most likely scare off plenty of people, but as I said, this is one of Rhodes’ best tracks and he should push both Nemechek and Creed for the lead early and will most likely be competing for the win on Saturday afternoon.

Other Options: Jack Wood ($7,500 – P34): Wood might be semi-popular, but he is cheap for his upside in this race. I will have some exposure to him to help get three top-tier drivers in. Stewart Friesen ($8,200 – P7), Austin Hill ($7,800), Matt Crafton ($8,400 – P5)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier

Colby Howard ($6,400) – P29: Big upside for low price. I really like this play today.
Derek Kraus ($6,800) – P17: Consistent mid to high teens driver. Kraus does have a top 10 here
Dawson Cram ($5,500) P33: Cram has run four Martinsville races in his career and has a low finish of 24th. All three of his other races were top 20. I really like this truck on Saturday and he should be low owned.
Austin Wayne Self ($5,700) – P21: Self has run 6 races here and outside of his wrecks he has never finished lower than 23rd. I see top 20 upside for Self on Saturday with top 15 potential with attrition.
Timmy Hill ($6,00) – P24: Hill is best in the Truck Series and he may get overlooked because of how poorly he runs in Xfinity and Cup. This is a top 20 truck weekly and Hill could drive it to a low teens finish.
Chris Hacker ($6,300) – P37: Similar to Howard, Hacker has some good upside this week at a low salary.
Bret Holmes ($6,100) – P20: His value is capped because of his starting position, but in GPP’s he could be a 5-10% play that gets someone a takedown if he avoids the potential carnage.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Premium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Kansas 10/24

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

” ‘Cause I’m about to solve it. Put my engine back into overdrive”

This weekend the Cup Series playoffs head to Kansas Speedway for the Hollywood Casino 400! On Saturday in the Xfinity race, we saw that the high line was practically the only place to pass on the track. Because of this, I am looking at for this race is drivers who tend to run well in the high groove. Aside from drivers who run well up top, I want to see who performed well earlier this season here, as well as at other 1.5-mile tracks with low tire wear. Kansas is an old surface but it does not eat up tires which makes them less important.

Rain on my parade?

There is a high chance of rain on Sunday afternoon in Kansas around the track, luckily Kansas DOES have lights which means you don’t need to tweet at Bob Pockrass to ask. These cars are set up for daytime racing, not night racing so it will be interesting to see who can make the proper adjustments to get their cars changed from day to night. I would assume that it would be the top teams in the series, but unfortunately, that’s just another thing we cannot predict.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier

Kyle Larson ($11,700)

Starting Position: 1st

Welcome to the weekly breakdown of how good Kyle Larson is at driving anything with an engine in it. There doesn’t seem to be any type of vehicle or track that Larson can’t dominate at, and Kansas is no different. Even though he didn’t have the finish to show for it, he dominated earlier this season at Kansas leading 132 or 267 laps. In 2021 at low tire wear mile and a half tracks, Larson has been the class of the field each week. In five races at this track type, Larson has three wins, the best overall speed, and driver rating, and has led an average of 182.6 laps per race. I am seriously running out of things to say about Larson each week, luckily I only have to write him up two more times after Sunday.

William Byron ($9,500)

Starting Position: 9th

No, you are not reading the article for Texas from last week, I promise this is a different article. Byron historically runs well at Kansas. After a few poor races to start his career where he couldn’t finish higher than 20th here everything has seemingly flipped and now Byron is a top 10 machine at Kansas. Since this race in the fall of 2019, Byron has finished 5th, 10th, 8th, and 9th and has led laps in three of the four races. Earlier this season Byron finished 9th with an average running position of 10.1 and the 8th best speed ranking. At this track type in 2021, Byron is also part of the top tier with the 2nd best speed ranking and 2nd best driver rating. At Las Vegas last month Byron ranked 1st in total speed ranking, he finished 2nd and had the second-best speed ranking last week in Texas as well. Lastly, at Michigan (which is considered to be a bigger version of Kansas) Byron also finished 2nd and had the 2nd best speed ranking

Ryan Blaney ($9,300)

Starting Position: 2nd

Blaney is another driver who excels at this track type. Since the midpoint of the season, Blaney has been the best at high-speed ovals like Kansas with a series-best 4.3 average finish in four races. Blaney also has finished in the top 6 at all four races. In the playoffs, the series has raced at two low tire wear 1.5-mile tracks and Blaney has finished fifth at Las Vegas and sixth at Texas. Blaney also won at Michigan back in August this year. I expect Blaney to compete for the win but if he doesn’t win, he should at least come home in the top 5.

Denny Hamlin ($11,000)

Starting Position: 6th

Hamlin should be ranked higher, but because of his salary I do not love the builds that have both him and Larson and for me, Larson is the priority on Sunday. With that being said, I will most likely have at least one lineup with them both. Hamlin has won two of the last four races at Kansas, but over the last two races luck wasn’t on his side. At Las Vegas last month, Hamlin led a race-high 137 laps, had the 2nd best speed ranking, and won the race. On Sunday I expect Hamlin to push Larson for the win and should be part of the top 5 at the end of the day.

Other Options: Alex Bowman ($9,800 – P25) – I expect Bowman to carry a lot of ownership on Sunday so that’s why he isn’t higher on the list. Bowman has not finished lower than 18th in any race since 2018 here (7 races) and has two top 5’s and four top 10’s. Kyle Busch ($10,700 – P4), Chase Elliott ($10,000 – P5)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Tyler Reddick ($8,400)

Starting Position: 12th

Well, you can’t have an article about a track where the high line is the best and not include Tyler Reddick. This man loves to run up top and right up against the wall but while it may seem risky it does tend to work for him. Over the last five races at 1.5-mile tracks, Reddick has finished no worse than 9th in any race and has the fourth-best average finish of 7.4 during this span. It seems every week I watch these races and Tyler Reddick and the #8 car is running towards the front and I expect to see much of the same this Sunday.

Austin Dillon ($7,800)

Starting Position: 14th

Let’s keep this RCR tier going! Reddick’s teammate, Austin Dillon, is another solid play in my eyes on Sunday. Dillon has run well at Kansas in the past and he’s also done well at 1.5-mile tracks in 2021. Dillon finished 11th in this race last season and earlier this year he came home tenth. As far as how he’s fared at similar tracks this year, Dillon has an average finish of 10.6 and an average running position of 12.5 at 1.5-mile tracks this season. At Michigan, Dillon was having his best race of the year until he got into that wreck with Keselowski at the end of the stage. I expect Dillon to be a top 15 lock, but to push for a top 10.

Bubba Wallace ($7,400)

Starting Position: 27th

Wallace is not someone who typically runs well at Kansas, but he is also in the best car he’s ever been in the Cup Series. Wallace has shown some great improvements at this track type late in the season. Prior to Texas where he wrecked, Wallace had finished 14th, 14th, and 16th at the 1.5-mile tracks. I expect Wallace to be a low owned car that finishes in the mid to high teens.

Other Options: Kurt Busch ($8,500 – P13): I really like Kurt Busch on Sunday, but because of his salary he doesn’t work in my three top tier driver builds and that’s why he’s in the “other” section. Over the last 4 at this track type, Busch has an avg finish of 7.3 and finished 4th and 8th at Michigan and Vegas respectively. Kevin Harvick ($8,900 – P11): When he’s not fighting with Chase Elliott, Harvick is having great races lately. In 6 of the last 7 he has finished in the top 10 and has an avg finish of 7.4 (4th best) since at the last 5 1.5-mile tracks. Ricky Stenhouse ($7,000 – P28): When he isn’t getting wrecked out of races, Stenhouse is finishing in the mid teens. If he can keep his car away from the carnage, I fully expect Stenhouse to be a huge PD play and finish in the mid to high teens.

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Matt DiBenedetto ($6,800) – P15: DiBenedetto is never priced this low, but it’s not for any reason other than DK’s algorithm is messed up (as usual). I don’t love this play on FD, but on DK he is a great option. Matty D has an avg finish of 11.9 and an avg running position of 12.8. I see DiBenedetto as a low teens driver on Sunday.
Chris Buescher ($6,300) – P21: Buescher, like DiBenedeto, is underpriced for his upside in this race. In his last six races here, Buescher has finished 16th or better four times and finished 8th here in the spring. I view Buescher as a high teens driver on Sunday.
Erik Jones ($6,100) – P17: Jones start’s high, but his price reflects it on both sites. I see Jones as a mid to low teens driver on Sunday based of recent performances. Last week at Texas (a similar track), Jones ran great and finished 12th. At 3 of the 5 low tire wear tracks in 2021 he’s finished between 10th and 16th.
Daniel Suarez ($6,400) – P16: Suarez finished top 10 last week at Texas and has been running really well in the playoffs. In 5 of the 7 playoff races so far, Suarez has finished 17th or better and I expect him to be a mid teens driver with top 10 upside again.
Ryan Preece ($5,700) – P32: I don’t love this pick, but the upside is here Preece has not been running well of late, but he is in a good car that could easily pull a top 20 on Sunday. I expect Preece to be popular, so fading him and going with the next driver on the list may be a good idea.
Anthony Alfredo ($5,600) – P29: Alfredo ran well here in the spring finishing 23rd. At the 8 1.5-mile tracks this season, Alfredo has finished 27th or better in seven of those races. I see Alfredo as mid 20’s car again on Sunday and with some attrition on our favor maybe even a low 20’s finish is in the cards.
Cole Custer ($6,000 – P22: Custer is a mid teens to low twenties driver at this track type typically and I expect that to continue. There really isn’t much to say about Custer, but he is cheap industry wide and will be a pivot off the other $6K drivers in this race. Custer is a GPP play only and you will need some luck to get a huge number out of him, but it can happen. In a wrecked filled race in the first Kansas race of 2020 he came home 7th, so the potential is there.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Kansas 10/23

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles. Since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

…And Toto too?

We ARE in Kansas this week but there won’t be any ruby red slippers, just some good old-fashioned black Goodyear tires! Kansas is a similar track to what we had at Texas last week, a 1.5-mile traditional oval with low tire wear. Also like Texas, track position is important so outside of the value plays we will look at drivers starting in or around the top 15.

Last season at this race only four drivers starting outside the top 10 finished in the top 10 at this race. The two drivers who started at the front (Gragson and Cindric) had their days end early in a big wreck on lap 16 or we could have had 8 of 10 who started in the top finish there. There are a few drivers starting towards the back that can give us some great value on Saturday, but your focus should be on getting the drivers who can finish top 10 in first and looking to fit the value plays in last.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier

Justin Haley ($9,100)

Starting Position: 6th

Haley has only run three times here in Kansas, but he has never finished lower than 7th. Last season at this race, Haley finished 4th, his career-best finish, and in the first race here in 2020 he finished 6th. Looking at similar tracks, Haley has five top ten’s in six Texas races and he has four top 10’s in six Las Vegas races. On Saturday I see Haley as a top 5 driver who has the potential for the win.

Justin Allgaier ($10,500)

Starting Position: 3rd

Allgaier is another driver who could win this race on Saturday, which would be his first at this track. Even though he has never won here, Allgaier has exceptional career numbers here. In 11 career races at Kansas, Allgaier only finished lower than 14th once (wrecked in 2018) and he has eight top 10’s. Allgaier, like Haley, has great finishes at similar tracks, averaging a top 10 at both Michigan and Las Vegas in his career. Also like Haley, I see Allgaier as a top 5 finisher here on Saturday with the potential to win.

Daniel Hemric ($9,500)

Starting Position: 1st

In 2018, Hemric led 128 laps from the pole in this race but ended up finishing second. Hemric is still looking for his first career win and I think this week it finally happens. Including that race in 2018, Hemric has three top 10’s and two top 5’s (both second-place finishes). Hemric is risky since he is on the pole for this race, but he is clicking on all cylinders right now. Coming into this race Hemric has four straight top 5’s and has led at least 17 laps in five of the last seven races.

Other Options: Brandon Jones ($9,300 – P9) – Jones won back-to-back races here from 2019-20 and has four top 10’s in six career races. Ty Gibbs ($11,200 – P10) – Gibbs has the best place differential upside in this tier. I think he scores high. I prefer my builds without him, but I will probably have him in at least one lineup. AJ Allmendinger ($10,200 – P5)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Garrett Smithley ($7,400)

Starting Position: 39th

Earlier I said there were a few drivers who have place differential upside and here is one of them. Smithley is replacing Carson Ware in the #17 this week which has been RWR’s best car in 2021. When you combine the upside (top 20) with the price, Smithley is the top play in this tier. Smithley has run three races in this car in 2021 and he has not finished lower than 25th. Two of the three races were at similar track types (Texas, Las Vegas) and Smithley finished 24th and 25th. If Smithley can avoid any potential carnage he could easily bring this car home with a top 20 and make him a lock for the optimal lineup.

Brandon Brown ($7,800)

Starting Position: 23rd

Brown has been a good driver at Kansas in his career, especially over his last three races. After finishing 18th in 2019, Brown came back to Kansas in 2020 and had two finishes in the top 15 (11th and 13th). With the way pricing is on this slate, we can easily slot in two mid-tier drivers with our three top-tier drivers and Brown is someone that needs to be considered for those types of builds. Brown is probably a top 15 driver with top 10 upside if things work out in his favor.

Jade Buford ($7,300)

Starting Position: 35th

Buford has never raced at Kansas, but he has raced at similar tracks and done well. Earlier this season at Michigan (the most similar track to Kansas) Buford managed to finish 9th. Buford is not going to dominate this race and he might not even finish top 20 but you are not rostering him for that. You are using Buford in your lineups as a pure place differential play for a cheap price.

Other Options: Riley Herbst ($8,900 – P13): It was a tale of two races here for Herbst in 2020. In the first Kansas race, Herbst had a strong showing and finished 9th. Unfortunately when they came back later in the year he wrecked with 28 laps to go and finished 30th. I think Herbst is a top 10 driver this week. Brett Moffitt ($8,700 – P16): Moffitt had the reverse happen to him of what happened to Herbst. In 2020, Moffitt had an oil leak and was forced out of the first Kansas race after only 91 laps. But in the fall, Moffitt came back and finished 7th. Moffitt projects as a top 15 car on Saturday. Michael Annett ($7,600 – P8): After wrecking on the opening lap in 2018 here, Annett has been money at this track since. In three races from 2019-20, Annett has finished 4th and 8th twice. I really like Annett’s chances at a third straight top 10. He will come in at extremely low ownership on the process.

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Joe Graf Jr. ($4,700) – P30: Graf is a capable driver who, if his car holds up, can come home with a good day in the top 25. At his low price you don’t need much from Graf and he will open up the salary needed to stack the top tier drivers we want
Jeremy Clements ($6,800) – P19: After a rough start to his career at Kansas, Clements has figured out how to perfrom well here. In four starts here sine 2018, Clements has two top 10’s and finished top 15 in all four races.
Matt Mills ($5,200) – P31: Mills track history is outstanding (all things considered) and he is consistently a mid-20’s driver here. In three races at Kansas, Mills has finishes of 20th, 26th, and 25th. I expect much of the same from Mills on Saturday. His low price and starting position makes for great value on this slate.
David Starr ($5,300) – P33: Like with Mills before him, Starr is a consistent mid-20’s to high teens driver at Kansas. Last season here, Starr finished 24th in both races and in the previous two races he had finishes of 17th and 23rd. If Starr can keep this car on the track I view him as a low 20’s driver on Saturday.
Bayley Currey ($6,500) – P22: Currey finished 23rd and 18th here in 2020, and I expect to finish right around this position again. Currey is risky because of his price and starting positiong but he makes for a good GPP pivot off what I expect to be the higher owned cheaper plays in this tier.
Gray Gaulding ($6,400) – P40: Gaulding starts last, so he has some good upside. I don’t love the price, but I get it. Gaulding is a much more capable driver than most who start 40th in this series. I think Gaulding will carry decent ownership, so that is why he isn’t higher up this list.

4 years ago 0 comments

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