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NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series from Phoenix 3/12

Matt Vecchio 3 years ago

written by Matt Vecchio

This week the NASCAR Xfinity Series wraps up their three-race west coast swing with a return to where the title was handed out to Daniel Hemric last season, Phoenix. Saturday’s race is a 200 lap race which means there is a fair share of dominator points to be had, 140 to be exact. Last season at Phoenix we saw one dominator lead the majority of both races. In both races, Austin Cindric led over 100 laps and no one else led more than 44. Now Cindric isn’t in this race, but Justin Allgaier is and without seeing any practice laps turned, he is the favorite this week to be the top dominator.

Roster Construction

Last season at this track is was a full-on stars and scrubs roster build. It was also a stack the back type of race which I am not sure will be the case on Saturday. Looking at the top plays (pre-practice/qualifying) we should be building similarly to last season.

***** Reminder that these plays are all pre-practice and qualifying. I will update the plays in DISCORD ONLY after qualifying *****

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier ($9K +)

Justin Allgaier ($11,500)

In the last four races at Phoenix, Allgaier has the most avg laps led per race (39.8) and fastest laps (21.3). On top of leading the most laps and having the most laps led, Allgaier also has the most DKFP average among drivers with more than one race in the last two seasons here.

John Hunter Nemechek ($9,200)

JHN has only raced at Phoenix four times in an Xfinity car but he has never finished outside the top 10. Nemechek has an average finish of 7th here at Phoenix as well as leading 72 laps. I consider Nemechek a top 10 contender with top 5 upside in this race.

Noah Gragson ($11,200)

Gragson has had a spectacular start to the 2022 season but he just has not been able to find victory lane, yet. So far in three races this season, Gragson has finished 3rd and 2nd (twice) for an average finish of 2.3. Gragson also has earned the most DKFP per race (driver with more than one start) with 63.3. Gragson wrecked in this race last season but without that finish, he has never finished lower than 12th. Gragson finally gets it done on Saturday in my opinion and heads to victory lane.

Other Options: Ty Gibbs ($10,900), AJ Allmendinger ($10,400), Brandon Jones ($9,500), Daniel Hemric ($10,400)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Riley Herbst ($8,000)

Herbst has had a much better start to the 2022 season than he did in 2021. Early on this season, Herbst has an avg finish of 9th with a top 5 and two top 10’s in three races. Last season at Phoenix, Herbst finished 4th in both races here and has four straight finishes of 11th or better.

Anthony Alfredo ($7,600)

Alfredo has been the benefit of some great, but risky calls by his crew chief. Prior to Vegas where he finished 17th, Alfredo had a 5th and 7th place finish this season. It’ll be key to see where Alfredo qualifies, but if it’s where he has typically started in 2022 he should be in the mid 20’s (23rd avg start in 2022) but finish in the top 15 giving him some good upside.

Other Options: Sam Mayer ($8,700), Austin Hill ($7,800), Brandon Brown ($7,200)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)

Jeremy Clements ($6,800)
Alex Labbe ($6,000)
Jade Buford ($5,300)
Kaz Grala ($6,400)
JJ Yeley ($6,500)
Josh Williams ($5,800)
Bayley Currey ($5,900)

Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series from Las Vegas 3/6

rmferenc@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Hittin the track in Vegas!

This week the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Vegas for the second leg of their west coast trip. Las Vegas Motorspeedway is a smooth intermediate 1.5-mile track. Unlike last week in Fontana, tire wear will not be an issue but track position will. We can still look to Auto Club as a gauge since it is the only intermediate track the NexGen car has raced at this season.

NASCAR held an extended practice this weekend as opposed to the 20 minutes the teams had last week. To no one’s surprise, Kyle Larson dominated practice and had the fastest single lap, 5 lap, and 10 lap averages. There was only one driver who bettered Larson at any length, William Byron was fastest in 15-lap and 20-lap averages. Byron’s car will be good on the long run with Larson. Another driver who was fast on Saturday was Ryan Blaney. Blaney was the only driver other than Byron who was top 3 in all facets of practice, running the best 25-ap average. Kyle Busch spun early in practice after running top 10 speeds and will be going to his backup car, but this also means he didn’t run a qualifying lap and will start dead last.

Roster Construction

Short and sweet… load up on the top tier. I like 3-4 dominator builds this week, similar to the Xfinity race. There is plenty of value in this race that makes these types of builds easy to do.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators) ($9K +)

Kyle Larson ($11,300) [ Proj. Ownership: 34% ]

Starting Position: 2nd

Nobody had a better car in practice than Larson and he should be the top dominator in this race. With track position being key, Larson starting on the front row should give him the chance to get out front early and lead laps. Larson is coming off a victory last week and won at Vegas last fall. Larson is the favorite to win this race and he is my pick as well.

Kevin Harvick ($9,100) [ Proj. Ownership: 39% ]

Starting Position: 25th

Harvick was not fast in practice but he was running consistent laps and we have seen the Fords run well in every race this season. In three of his last four Vegas races, Harvick has finished no worse than 10th but his one poor performance was at this race last year where his team just missed the setup (no practice or qualifying). I believe that this car will be faster on Sunday and come home with a top 10.

William Byron ($9,800) [ Proj. Ownership: 18% ]

Starting Position: 14th

Fast Willy B was just that on Saturday in practice. Byron was top two in all multi-lap averages he ran in (Byron did not run 25 consecutive laps) and was the only driver to do so. Las Vegas is a track where Byron typically runs fast, but he has had some issues. The last time the series was here in the Fall, Byron was a top 5 car all day but had a ton of issues and finished 18th. Last season at intermediate tracks, Byron had the top speed ranking and was either 1st or 2nd in speed in the last five races.

Ryan Blaney ($10,500) [ Proj. Ownership: 23% ]

Starting Position: 11th

Blaney will be a top 5 car on Sunday. He may not finish there, because the unpredictable can always happen in NASCAR, but Blaney was fast in practice and should be in contention for the win on Sunday. Blaney has an average finish of 6.6 in the last five Vegas races and has finished 7th or better in eight of the last ten.

Kyle Busch ($10,200) [ [ Proj. Ownership: 47% ]

Starting Position: 37th

Like I mentioned in the open, Busch will be going to his backup car and be starting dead last. Busch’s backup car is said to not be “race ready” so there is a chance this car might not be competitive on Sunday. I still expect Busch to be highly owned but because of the potential upside, I will have some shares. This is one of Kyle’s better tracks with an average finish of 4th in the last three races and finished 3rd in both races here in 2021.

Other Options: Joey Logano ($10,800 – P6) – Logano is a pivot off of the chalky Busch and was running really fast laps in practice on Saturday. Chase Elliott ($11,000 – P5) – Expensive, but another fast Hendrick car. Martin Truex Jr. ($9,500 – P12) – MTJ is the pivot off Harvick in GPPs or MME. Could be a top 10 car with top 5 upside. Tyler Reddick ($9,300 – P7) – After how well Reddick has run this season it will be hard to fade him. I may not have a lot of exposure but I will have Reddick in some lineups.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Kurt Busch ($8,900) [ Proj. Ownership: 36% ]

Starting Position: 31st

Kurt Busch is either a top 8 car or 20th or worse car at Vegas in his last six races here with no in-between. On Saturday, Busch was showing top 20 speed in practice but had a terrible qualifying effort. Busch is another driver who will carry high ownership, but I like the idea of pairing him with three top-tier lower-owned drivers.

Erik Jones ($7,300) [ [ Proj. Ownership: 37% ]

Starting Position: 23rd

Erik Jones has been outstanding to start the season and was one of the best cars last week at Auto Club. Jones finished 3rd after finishing 2nd in both stages. At Fontana, Jones’s accomplishments continued with the best total speed ranking, best green flag speed, the best driver rating, a 4.3 average running position, and 2nd fastest driver late in a run. This team seems to have intermediate tracks figured out and because of this, Jones will be high on my radar on Sunday.

Christopher Bell ($8,200) [ [ Proj. Ownership: 29% ]

Starting Position: 1st

Bell is risky as he and the JGR Toyota’s have not run well so far this season but he showed plenty of speed on Saturday. In practice, Bell was 2nd in single-lap speed, and third in 10-lap average. Last year at this race, Bell finished 7th after running top 10 all day and 6th in stage 1 and 7th in stage 2.

Other Options: Alex Bowman ($8,700 – P13), Daniel Suarez ($7,000 – P21), Aric Almirola ($7,800 – P20)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)

Daniel Hemric ($5,800) – P16 : Hemric has a fast car running top 10 practice speeds in every category he ran in. I might have more exposure to Hemric than any other driver in the field.
Cole Custer ($6,700) – P24: Custer was faster in practice than his qualifying effort showed. We saw Custer run well at Auto Club last weekend and I expect a top 15 from the 41 on Sunday.
Chris Buescher ($6,500) – P27: There is some upside to Buescher on Sunday, but I only see him as a top 20 car on Sunday. His speeds were in the mid 20’s on Saturday.
Harrison Burton ($5,900) – P19: Burton ran well in practice with mid teens speed. We know the Fords have performed at high levels this season, so Burton could surprise but reaslitically he is a top 15 car at best.
Ty Dillon ($5,600) – P32: I don’t expect much from Dillon on Sunday since he ran speeds right around his qualifying effory. With attrition this is a top 20 car, but it will take a lot for that to happen.
Bubba Wallace ($6,300) P17: Wallace had good long run speed in practice and could be a contendor for a top 10, but a more realistic expectation is mid to high teens

All three of Michael McDowell, Corey Lajoie, and Todd Gilliland are three sub $5.5K plays that can be used in four dominator builds. Lajoie was the fastest of these three in practice but they all project around the same points.

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Premium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series from Las Vegas 3/5

rmferenc@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Vegas baby!!!

Vegas is the home of NASCAR this weekend as they continue their tour of the West Coast. This track is a cookie-cutter-Esque 1.5 mile. Unlike last week, tire wear will not be an issue this week, but track position is important at Vegas. At this race last season, only three drivers who finished inside the top 10 started lower than 10th. At the fall race here in Vegas, only two drivers starting lower than 11th finished in the top 11. There is a couple of place differential plays that we should have exposure to in the top tier, but there are also some great plays at the top.

Roster Construction

Last season at this race it was all about the top tier/dominators. None of the top eight DKFP scoring drivers was less than $9K in salary (Daniel Hemric $9,200). Looking back at the optimal lineups, the top five scoring lineups at this race were all “stars and scrubs” builds and I see a similar build taking down GPPs on Saturday. Not one of the top five lineups has less than three top-tier priced drivers, and two even had four.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier ($9K +)

Like I mentioned in the open two drivers are going to be semi-chalky place differential plays in this race on Saturday. Both Ty Gibbs ($11,000 -P11) and Justin Allgaier ($10,400 – P16) were fast in practice with them ranking 4th and 6th respectively in single-lap speed and Gibbs was 3rd in 10-lap average. I have not decided how much of each driver I will have but I don’t think fading them is a good idea. These are two cars that could easily both finish top 5 or win this race.

Noah Gragson ($10,800) [ Proj Ownership: 42%]

Starting Position: 4th

It doesn’t seem like it, but Gragson has some place differential upside here because he is my pick to win in his hometown. Gragson has never won here, but he also has never finished lower than 6th in six races and has a 3.8 average finish. In practice on Friday nobody was faster than Gragson, he had the best single lap and 10-lap average. It’s hard for me to bet against Gragson on Saturday in this race.

Danie Hemric ($9,900) [Proj. Ownership: 25%]

Starting Position: 6th

Hemric finished 2nd in this race last season and has three straight top 5’s at Vegas. In practice on Friday, Hemric was 7th in single-lap speed but had the second-best 10-lap average. There really isn’t much to say about Hemric, he runs well in Vegas and he has a fast car, play him.

Brandon Jones ($9,500) [Proj. Ownership: 26%]

Starting Position: 21st

Jones was not fast in practice (16th SL, 14th 10L), but Vegas is a good track for him. Now, Jones will start at the rear on Saturday but I see him coming through the field early and be a contender for a top 10. Jones has four top 6 finishes in his last 5 races and his average finish here in 10 career races is 9.2.

Other Options: AJ Allmendinger (10,200 – P1), John Hunter Nemechek ($9,200 – P10), Josh Berry ($9,700 – P2)

EVERY driver in this price tier is in play. I suggest working your lineups from the TOP down. Fit in three of these drivers first, make them the priority before looking at the value tier. This is where the majority of your points will come from and it’s important to use the right pieces.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Myatt Snider ($8,000) [ Proj. Ownership: 26%]

Starting Position: 34th

Snider had a hiccup in qualifying that has him starting from the rear, but he will actually be starting higher than he is scored (which is VERY rare) because of so many drivers having to go to the back. In practice, Snider was 20th in 10 lap average and was 15th in single-lap speed. Snider fits in three dominator builds nicely at his salary and I expect to have a lot of exposure to him.

Jeb Burton ($7,500) [ Proj. Ownership: 47%]

Burton had a rough go in practice and qualifying on Friday spinning out in both. Because of this, Burton will start dead last but if his team got his car fixed, and I believe they did, he could be a top 20 finisher. In the few laps Burton ran he posted the 23rd best single lap, nothing to write home about, but he should be faster than that on race day.

Ryan Truex ($8,500) [ Proj. Ownership: 17% ]

Starting Position: 7th

Truex is in the #18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota on Saturday, so we know he has top-tier equipment. That showed on Friday as he was the third-fastest in single-lap speed and 10-lap average. Truex could be the pivot off the chalkier Snider that leads someone to a big payday on Saturday in this race. There is plenty of risk in Truex that there isn’t with Snider, so he isn’t a cash or single-entry play in my eyes.

Other Options: Anthony Alfredo ($7,800 – P25), Sam Mayer ($8,600 – P9), Ryan Sieg ($7,200 – P20)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)

Joe Graf Jr. ($5,200) – P23: We know this car is fast considering it won the race at Fontana last week. Now, that was with Cole Custer behind the wheel but Graf is a good driver and a top 20 is definetly in the cards here.
JJ Yeley ($6,600) – P30: Plenty of PD upside here for Yeley, but he does have some risk of his car giving up making him a GPP only play.
Stefan Parson ($5,600) – P29: Parsons had top 20 speed in practice so this qualifying effort was a bit puzzling. IF Parson car last the entire race, he is a top 20 fnisher with top 15 upside.
CJ McLaughlin ($4,600) – P31: McLaighlin has a car set up for the long run (21st in 10-lap avg) and gives the salary relief needed for 3-4 dominator builds.
Bayley Currey ($5,700) – P27: Similar to Parson, Currey’s car was faster than it showed in qualifying and I think a top 20 is where we could see Currey at the end of the day.
Joey Gase ($5,300) – P36: Not fast, but he is cheap and starts far back. If there is attrition in this race, Gase could have an outstanding day.
Jesse Iwuji ($4,900) – P37: Just like Gase, not fast but cheap and has PD upside if we get some cars falling out early.

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Truck Series from Las Vegas 3/4

rmferenc@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the first Kyle Busch Invitational of 2022!

This week the Truck Series makes its return to Las Vegas, Kyle Busch’s hometown, and his first of five races in this series of 2022. There’s always a decision to be made of how to treat him when Kyle does run in a truck race. DraftKings does the right thing and prices him astronomically high but I do feel he can be used comfortably on Friday. I will go into more in the next paragraph about that.

Last season at this race, John Hunter Nemechek led 70.3% of the laps while nobody else led more than 11% (Busch). I expect this race to be similar with JHN and Busch dominating this race again.

Roster Construction

There are two ways to build for this race, with or without Kyle Busch. If you are doing multiple lineups then you can build both ways, but if you are only doing one lineup you need to decide. I cannot tell you which way you want to go, but I will show you both paths and let you decide. You can build a good lineup with both Busch and Nemechek but that will mean sacrificing the mid-tier completely. Whenever Busch races in the Truck Series it is a difficult build because you have to decide to play him or fade him. Last season Busch finished 1st or 2nd in all five races he ran, led 223 laps (44.6 per race), and had 134 fastest laps.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier ($9K +)

Kyle Busch – $15,000 (P2)

John Hunter Nemechek – $12,000 (P1)

Whether you decide that you want to use Kyle or not I think it will be necessary to roster one of either Busch or Nemechek on Friday night. These are the two drivers who will spend the majority of the night up front. Last season at times when Busch was racing in the Truck Series he did “let” Nemechek pass him, lead laps, and win stages (Kyle owns the truck JHN drives) and I could see something similar happening this weekend. I will have multiple lineups and at least 2 will have a Busch/Nemechek build and I expect to have one of them in each of my remaining lineups as well.

Chandler Smith ($9,900)

Starting Position: 3rd

Welcome to the KBM Show from beautiful Las Vegas! All three KBM trucks start 1-2-3 in this race and Smith may be the secret weapon tonight. Smith was third fastest in both single lap speed and 10 lap average in practice on Friday. All the KBM trucks are fast this week and I would not be surprised to see them all finish top 5 Friday night.

Ty Majeski ($9,200)

Starting Position: 10th

Majeski looked really fast in practice and has the best place differential upside of all the drivers in this tier. Looking at Friday’s short practice session, no one was faster than Majeski. Not only did Majeski have the best single lap speed, but he was also 8th best in 10-lap average. Majeski finished 13th in his only race here in 2020, but he is now in a Thor Sports truck, his best equipment to date, and should be a contender for the top 5 in this race.

Other Options: Christian Eckes ($9,600 – P9), Zane Smith ($10,200 – P6)

Again, it comes down do you feel comfortable rostering Busch at $15K and that decision is yours alone. I will have 50-60% exposure to him if not higher. If you feel better fading him and hoping for a wreck, I can totally understand that as well.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K-$8.9K)

Matt DiBendetto ($8,900)

Starting Position: 15th

I don’t love the idea of playing DiBenedetto, but DraftKings priced him much better this week and his truck did show some speed in practice. Matty D starts 15th and ran the 14th best single lap in practice but he did not run 10 consecutive laps. DeBenedetto is a potential top 10 truck and if you want to run a Busch lineup, he is a great fringe top tier play that could run up front.

Grant Enfinger ($8,700)

Starting Position: 11th

Enfinger ran a top 5 lap in practice, but he wasn’t great in the long run (17th 10-lap avg). I am not worried, this is one of the top teams in this sport and they will fix that as the race progresses. If it’s not a KBM truck that wins this race on Friday night, I could definitely see Enfinger in victory lane. Enfinger has a win here at Vegas, has three straight top 10’s, and has only finished lower than 12th twice (wrecked both times).

Stewart Friesen ($8,200)

Starting Position: 17th

Friesen ran much faster in practice than he did in qualifying, which we know means that truck is set up to race, not qualify. In his career at Las Vegas, Friesen has been outstanding and this track s arguably one of his best. Friesen has four straight top 10’s here and has three top 5’s in the last six races. In practice, Friesen was 9th best in single-lap speed and had the 5th best 10-lap average.

Other Options: Bret Holmes ($7,400 – P32) – Holmes had top 25 speed in practice. Matt Crafton (8,500 – P7) – This is Crafton’s 500th career start, narrative alert? Tyler Ankrum ($8,000 – P14), Todd Bodine ($7,500 – P23)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)

Hailie Deegan ($6,500) – P20: Deegan was top 20 in both single-lap and 10-lap avg in practice.
Jack Wood ($6,900) – P24
Matt Mills ($5,100) – P27: Wasn’t fast in practice, but he is cheap and helps build those KB/JHN lineups
Austin Wayne Self ($5,900) – P18: There is minimal upside here, but Self is usually a safe driver that manages to hang around at the end. Top 15 is the high end projection
Lawless Alan ($5,200) – P26: Another driver who has limited upside but gets you those KB/JHN builds
Timmy Hill ($5,000) -P28: Too cheap for where he starts.
Dean Thompson ($4,600) – P29
Spencer Boyd ($4,700) – P35

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Premium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series from Fontana 2/27

rmferenc@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Cup series for the 2022 season! If you’ve been with us before then, you know the drill, but welcome if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play. There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

California dreamin‘

I had a whole different into planned for this open before practice and qualifying took place. If I am being honest I have no idea what to expect on Sunday afternoon. We saw six cars wreck in some way in practice, and then in qualifying five more spun. I would hope that the teams were able to figure out what happened and have fixed the issue that led to this. With so many cars having issues we won’t have 1-2 chalk plays, we instead have 5-6 drivers who will be popular but ownership could be spread out since you cannot roster all of them. One driver who will be in the group starting at the rear is Kurt Busch. This is a different situation from the rest, Kurt failed tech 3x’s on Friday so he wasn’t allowed to make a qualifying lap and will have to serve a pass-through penalty. Busch is the riskiest play of the drivers starting at the rear but he was 14th in practice and 10th in 10-lap average. It is pretty much a given that Busch will go a lap down early, but there will be plenty of time for him to recover and get back on the lead lap. You won’t Busch in this article, but I expect to have some exposure to Busch on Sunday, but he won’t be my highest owned driver.

Roster Construction

I planned on doing a typical two dominator build for this race because of how the laps led in the previous five races have gone. Similar to the Xfinity Series, typically two drivers lead 75-80% of the laps in races at Auto Club. But with so many drivers that fit the dominator tier, we may be looking at three dominator builds. There is still some value in the mid-tier but very little in the value tier. Luckily we can actually build a variety of lineups with the way this field panned out. Let’s get started!

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators) ($9K +)

Kyle Larson ($11,600) [Proj. Ownership: 23%]

Starting Position: 13th

Larson is an interesting play this week. He did not have a great practice, but it was only 15 minutes of track time so it’s hard to really get a gauge on what he can do. We do know that Larson can drive anything to victory lane and he has done so here in the past. Larson should come in at much lower ownership than usual because of the PD plays elsewhere in the field but he has the car and the ability to lead the majority of this race and win.

Kevin Harvick ($9,200) [Proj. Ownership: 45%]

Starting Position: 32nd

On the opposite end of the pricing in this tier is Harvick. Harvick was one of the many cars who had issues in practice and went around in turn four early in the session. This is a track Harvick performs well at with eight top 10’s in his last 12 races here including a win in 2011. For his price, upside, and past track history Harvick is the best of the bunch coming from the back.

Kyle Busch ($10,400) [Proj. Ownership: 30%]

Starting Position: 3rd

Kyle was one of the best cars in the limited practice time the teams had. Busch was 2nd in both single lap and 10-lap practice with Denny Hamlin (single lap) and Chase Elliott (10-lap) being faster. Busch has seven top 3 finishes in the last nine races here and has finished 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the last three races. During those three races, Busch is tops in average finish (2nd), average running position (4.5), fastest laps per race (33.3), and laps led (65.3).

While nothing has been announced at the time of writing, there is speculation about Kyle having to start at the back because of unapproved adjustments. I will post any updates on this in discord if and when they become available. As of now, he is a top play, but if he goes to the back I will reassess any potential changes to his status for this race fantasy-wise.

Alex Bowman ($9,000) [Proj. Ownership: 22%]

Starting Position: 14th

When the Cup Series was here last in 2020 Bowman was the winner and should be a contender again on Sunday. Bowman was top 5 in practice on Saturday in single lap times but he did not run a 10-lap stretch. Bowman had the fastest car in this race in 2020, but I don’t think that will be the case on Sunday. I view Bowman as a top 10 car with top 5 upside.

Ryan Blaney – $10,000 P6:

Blaney is someone I am just coming around on and while he didn’t show a ton of speed in practice he does project at low ownership (around 20%) and is capable of winning. Blaney is a GPP play because of the potential downside. In 2020 they had a tire vibration that caused them to pit late while running near the front and they were not able to recover. Blaney is a dark horse candidate to win this race, but could also finish in the high teens. He is definitely a high-risk high-reward type of play on Sunday.

Other Options: Denny Hamlin ($10,700 – P4), Chase Elliott ($11,100 – P8), Martin Truex Jr. ($9,800 – P12)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Christopher Bell ($8,000) [ Proj. Ownership: 28%]

Starting Position: 19th

Bell was another one of the drivers that went for a spin in practice on Saturday but he managed to save his car from damage and will not need to go to his backup. Before he went around, Bell did run the 5th best 10-lap average lap as well as the 9th fastest single lap. Bell had some success at high tire wear tracks in 2021, and I see him as a low teens driver with top 10 upside. This is purely a salary and ownership play because other drivers may project for more points in this tier but they will be more popular and their upside is capped.

Bubba Wallace ($7,000) [Proj. Ownership: 43%]

Starting Position: 34th

Wallace finished 2nd last week at his best track type, but this week when I did not plan on using him he ends up not getting to put a qualifying lap down and makes himself playable. Wallace spun out in practice (because who didn’t?!) and had damage that sent him to the garage which disqualified him from qualifying. In that practice session, Wallace did have the 7th fastest lap before his spin. I know he will be high owned, but the upside here of a top 15 makes it hard to fade Wallace especially if you play the lower owned drivers listed above.

Aric Almirola ($7,400) [Proj. Ownership: 37%]

Starting Position: 31st

Another driver and another one who took a spin in practice. It’s going to be impossible to fit all of these drivers starting at the back in, but Almirola might be among the best options. We know the Fords have dominated early on this season and being back there with a teammate in Kevin Harvick to work with as they work through that field will help Almirola. In his three races at Auto Club, Almirola is yet to finish lower than 12th in any race.

Other Options: Brad Keselowski ($8,600 – P9), Ross Chastain ($8,200 – P33), Tyler Reddick ($8,400 – P11)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Justin Haley ($6,500) – P35: Haley was another driver who didn’t get to qualify. No driver in this tier that has the potential to have a great positive place differential.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,200) – P17: Stenhouse will have almost no ownership (around 10%) but had a car that had top 5 long run speed. This care has top 10 upside
Cole Custer ($5,900) – P21: Custer dominated the Xfinity race on Saturday and should be in contention for a top 15 on Sunday.
Todd Gilliland ($5,300) – P26: Limited upside here, but is the best in the ow $5K range if you are in need of salary relief.
Michael McDowell ($5,700) – P23: McDowell has top 15 speed in practice and should be a top 20 car on Sunday.
Erik Jones ($6,400) – P2: This is a risky play, but Jones and Ty Dillon were both fast in practice and at his salary if Jones can finish around the top 10 he could make value at 5% ownership.

Thank you for reading my weekly NASCAR DFS Pit Stop articles and make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series from Fontana 2/26

rmferenc@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Xfinity series for the 2022 season! If you’ve been with us before then, you know the drill, but welcome if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

We’re heading West!

NASCAR returns to the West Coast this week with both the Xfinity and Cup Series racing at Auto Club Speedway for the first time in two years. This weekend will be a stark contrast to last weekend in Daytona in such that there will be very few wrecks with a more spread-out field. Typically races here can be boring with one or two drivers dominating and leading 75% of the laps. Also unlike last week, we won’t necessarily be stacking drivers from the back of the field. In 2020, the last time the Xfinity Series raced here, nine of the top ten finishers started inside the top 13. Four cars DNF’d and all four were mechanical issues with only two cautions for multi-car wrecks and three for single-car spins. This was by all means a very tame race. Two drivers led a combined 113 of 150 laps in this race (76.7%) so it will be key to find these dominators on Saturday afternoon.

Roster Construction

In two of the previous three races at Auto Club, two drivers starting inside the top 5 were in the optimal lineup. In 2020, four drivers starting 13th or better made the optimal lineup and in 2019 three did. No more than two drivers starting 30th or worse have been in the optimal line the last three races here. With all this knowledge we should be looking to use 2-3 dominators for this race and two value tier drivers. But sometimes things change and the way qualifying worked out we will be looking to the rear of the field for a lot of the top plays. There are still some good plays starting near the front, but there are fewer than usual at Fontana.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier ($9K +)

Justin Allgaier ($10,100) [ Proj. Ownership: 36%]

Starting Position: 20th

Allgaier is the top play on this slate and while he will likely be the highest owned driver it is hard to fade him. Allgaier has finished no worse than 12th at Auto Club in his last six races including four top 10’s. In Saturday’s short practice session, Allgaier had the best single lap speed and 5th best 10-lap average.

A.J. Allmendinger ($10,500) [Proj. Ownership: 28%]

Starting Position: 1st

Allmendinger was fast in practice finishing with the 4th best single lap speed. AJ has only raced here once in the Xfinity Series 15 years ago so we can’t count that. I believe Allmendinger will be one of the two dominant cars in this race and be a contender for the win.

Ty Gibbs ($11,300) [ Proj. Ownership 31%]

Starting Position: 12th

Gibbs will be popular, and that is why I slotted him below Allmendinger here. I think there is upside here, maybe more than Dinger but I think his ownership goes above the projection. Gibbs was fast in practice as well with the 5th best speed and 7th fastest 10-lap average.

Cole Custer ($9,800) [ Proj. Ownership: 27%]

Starting Position: 2nd

Custer is in the 07 SS Greenlight Ford, this is essentially a Stewart-Haas Ford though. In practice, Custer had the 10th best single lap, but he was 2nd in 10-lap average which is important because he shows he can take care of his tires in the “long run”. Custer won in his last Xfinity race here in 2019 and finished 6th the previous year. I look at Custer as a top 5 car with the potential to lead a bunch of laps.

Other Options: Daniel Hemric ($10,300 – P5), Noah Gragson ($10,900 – P6), Josh Berry ($9,500 – P11)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Myatt Snider ($8,100) [Proj. Ownership: 34%]

Starting Position: 31st

Snider projects as the second-highest owned driver but there is next to no downside with him today. Snider has only raced at Fontana once in the Xfinity Series where he finished 11th. In practice on Saturday, Snider was not fast, but I am not worried since he only ran 9 laps.

Anthony Alfredo ($7,300) [Proj. Ownership: 28%]

Starting Position: 28th

Alfredo was another car that was not fast in practice, but again I am not worried and look to Alfredo as a top 15 car on Saturday. In 2020, Alfredo was in the RCR #21 and finished 6th, this car he is in now is not as good as that car but he is a skilled driver in a good Our Motorsports Chevy.

Brandon Brown ($7,200) [Proj. Ownership: 31%]

Starting Position: 30th

Brown was a top 20 car in practice and was even in the top 10 in single-lap speed at one point. In 2019, Brown finished 15th here at Fontana, but in 2020 he had his engine fail on him and he finished 33rd. Brown had an issue in qualifying that set him back and has him starting where he is, this car is definitely a top 20 car (as long he stays clean) with top 10 upside.

Other Options: Sam Mayer ($8,700 – P13), Riley Herbst ($8,300 – P16), Kaz Grala ($7,400 – P29)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Jeffrey Earnhardt ($6,800) – P37
Josh Williams ($6,100) – P34
Tommy Joe Martins ($6,300) – P27
Ryan Vargas ($5,200) – P32
Alex Labbe ($6,600) – P19
Mason Massey ($4,900) – P33
JJ Yeley ($5,600) – P24

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Premium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Daytona 500 2/20

rmferenc@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

The Great American Race!

It’s finally here, we are finally going to drop the green flag officially on the 2022 season at the most iconic track in the United States of America, Daytona!

After a long offseason (not really) the Cup series is back on the track this weekend from Daytona! There have been a lot of changes during the offseason with top drivers from the Xfinity Series and Truck Series making the jump to “the big leagues”. Included in those drivers are former Xfinity champion, Austin Cindric. Harrison Burton and Justin Haley also make the leap from the Xfinity series and Todd Gilliland comes up from the Truck Series. We also have a couple of other drivers doing one-off rides in this race like Daniel Hemric and Noah Gragson.

Another change this season is the series is moving on to the Next-Gen car (more on that in my “What’s New” article) as well as going back to practice and single-lap qualifying. When we had qualifying in 2021 we typically had great days if you were in discord and made the appropriate changes. A lot of times the field will set their lineups and not come back to check who makes the race and where they start.

Roster Construction

If you’ve played NASCAR DFS before then you probably have an idea of how we build lineups for tracks like Daytona. If you don’t, well there’s a hashtag for it, #Stacktheback. You want drivers from the back, specifically 20th and back. Looking back at the 500 from 2021, the optimal lineup only left $2,400 of salary on the table. In fact, the top 5 lineups left on average $3,500 of salary with only one of those lineups being higher than $3,100. I believe we will see similar salary figures for the top lineups with so many of the drivers starting towards the back having high salaries. Of the top 5 projected point totals, Aric Almirola is the cheapest at $8,000. I still think there should be some salary remaining when building, probably around $1,500-$3,000, since you don’t want lineups with all the chalk drivers. It will be in your best interest to pick 2-3 of the top drivers and then use some of the lower owned plays to fill out the remaining spots.

**** DISCLAIMER ****: I will be building over 20 lineups for this race as I have over 20 tickets entered in the Millionaire Maker contest on DraftKings. I will have exposure to drivers not in this article. I will be doing this to try and strengthen my odds in this contest. These are drivers that are incredibly risky and I would not suggest using if building under 5 lineups.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier ($9K +)

Denny Hamlin – $10,500 (Proj Ownership: 53%)

Starting Position: 30th

It shouldn’t surprise anyone that Hamlin is tops in this tier for Sunday with his amount of success here in recent years coupled with his poor qualifying effort. Hamlin has won three of the last five Daytona 500’s and was the top-scoring driver on DraftKings. Hamlin came home fifth after starting 25th and led 98 laps and we should expect a similar outcome from the #11 team on Sunday. As long as he can keep himself out of the big one(s), Hamlin is as much of a lock for a top 5 as any driver in the field.

Joey Logano $9,800 (Proj Ownership 30%)

Starting Position: 20th (but will be starting at the rear for going to his backup car)

We go from the driver with the highest projected ownership (Hamlin) to a driver who saw his ownership projection drop after his last-lap wreck in his Duel this week. Logano is a Superspeedway master and was leading this race last season until a last ap wreck took him out. In 2022 so far it appears the 22, and the Ford’s in general seems to have this car figured out. Logano has won his heat at the Clash, won the Clash, and was about to win his Duel before he had failed block attempt on the last lap. I think Logano going to the back will keep people off him for Sunday but with all the carnage expected to happen, I am will not worry about that.

William Byron $9,400 (Proj Ownership 20%)

Starting Position: 23rd

Byron is another driver who excels at Superspeedways. Daytona was the site of Byron’s first win and he has to be seen as a favorite to win this race on Sunday. Dating back to 2019, when Byron can avoid the wrecks he finishes exceptionally well with a 1st and a 2nd place finish in the two races where he stayed clean. The Hendrick Chevy’s almost always run well at Superspeedways and Byron should be in contention on Sunday.

Kevin Harvick $9,200 (Proj Ownership 17%)

Starting Position: 22nd

In four Superspeedway races in 2021 nobody was better than Harvick’s 7.75 average finish and his three top 10’s. Harvick is a two-time winner at Daytona and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 4 in victory lane at the end of the night. We have already established that the Ford’s are fast this week so I expect Harvick and his Ford teammates to dominate this race with Harvick leading the charge. Harvick ran fairly well in his Duel this week even though at times he seemed disinterested in really running that race.

Other Options: Chase Elliott ($10,400 – P11), Kurt Busch ($9,000 – P17), Ryan Blaney ($10,000 – P7)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Austin Dillon $8,400 (Proj Ownership 46%)

Starting Position: 36th

Dillon has rarely had a bad race at Daytona and this is why he is so highly ranked for me, well that and his starting position. The 2018 Daytona 500 winner has been Mr. Consistent at Daytona with six finishes of 17th or better in his last eight races here. Last season in this race Dillon was top 5 in both stages and then finished 3rd in the race.

Aric Almirola $8,000 (Proj Ownership 49%)

Starting Position: 38th

Similar to Dillon, Almirola is a great driver at this track type. If you look at his recent results, Almirola has not been great, but he is an excellent Superspeedways through no fault of his own. Almirola has six top 10’s and nine top 15’s in his last 16 Superspeedway races.

Daniel Hemric $7,000) (Proj Ownership 28%)

Starting Position: 33rd

Hemric will be in the Kaulig #16 Chevy on Sunday and he should be in position for a good day. Kaulig traditionally prepares great cars for Superspeedways and Sunday should be no different. Hemric ran well in Saturday’s Xfinity Series race in his Kaulig #11 car until he got caught up in the big one. With his cheap salary and low starting position, Hemric is a great value piece to help you fit the higher-priced guys we want in this race.

Other Options: Justin Haley ($7,400 – P25): Haley is Kaulig’s second car in this race and Haley has been great at this track type in his career. Bubba Wallace ($8,300 – P16), Tyler Reddick ($7,700 – P15)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Noah Gragson ($5,300 – P39): Gragson is running his first ever Cup Series race on Sunday but he has been successful in his Xfinity SS races. This car has had some good finishes at this track type.
Ty Dillon ($5,200 – P26): Dillon has a 14.9 finish in his last twelve Superspeedway races
Cole Custer ($6,500 – P31): Custer has not performed well at Daytona in the past and he should go overlooked on Sunday. The Fords have been fast all week and if Custer can avoid the carnage he could be one of the top scoring drivers in this race
Ross Chastain ($6,700 – P19): Chastain has three straight top 20 finishes at Daytona, including a 7th place finish at the Daytona 500 last year.
Corey Lajoie ($5,500 – P24): Some how Corey Lajoie always manages to avoid all the wrecks and pull out superb finishes. Lajoie has three top 10’s and an average finish of 12th over the last five races at Daytona. With Lajoie starting P24 he may be overlooked which is what we want as he could be the key to a takedown.
David Ragan ($5,100 – P34): Ragan has won this race before but he also gets caught up in the wrecks as well. Ragan is a risky play but he does know how to work the draft and stay out of trouble, similar to Lajoie he could be the key to a big day.
Daniel Suarez ($5,800 – P21): Suarez has had some bad luck at Daytona, whether he caused the wreck or just got caught up in it. I feel like he is due and now with Chastain and the Hendrick cars working with him he could have a solid day on Sunday.

Play these races light and use them to pick up some tickets for Sunday’s race. There are A LOT of satellites in the lobby for these races. There are all kinds of price points and sizes, depending on your budget you should be able to enter a few of these contests.

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series from Daytona 2/19

Matt Vecchio 3 years ago

written by Matt Vecchio

Welcome back to the track!

After a long offseason (not really) the Xfinity series is back on the track this weekend from Daytona! There have been a lot of changes during the offseason with guys like Austin Cindric heading to the Cup Series, but a lot of the top drivers are still in the field. Included in those drivers is 2021 series champion, Daniel Hemric. Hemric has left JGR and is now with Kaulig Racing in the #11 car that Justin Haley vacated when he moved to the Cup Series. Also back for another run at a title is Noah Gragson and Justin Allgaier as well as newcomers Ty Gibbs and Josh Berry (full time this season).

Another change this season is the series is going back to practice and single lap qualifying so my articles will have a different look in 2022 because I will not have starting positions available to me when writing. I will use practice speeds and track history to give my thoughts on the field, but on most race days you will NEED to be in discord after qualifying (typically 2 hours before lock) to get my final thoughts. When we had qualifying in 2021 we typically had great days if you were in discord and made the appropriate changes. A lot of times the field will set their lineups and not come back to check who makes the race and where they start. Speaking of making the race, only 38 cars will race on Saturday so this means nine cars will be going home after qualifying on Saturday.

Roster Construction

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier ($9K +)

I don’t plan on running more than one driver from this tier in my lineups unless, of course, we get a situation similar to the Truck Series race where a few drivers start towards the rear in this tier.

Ty Gibbs ($10,100)

Gibbs was the fastest car in practice on Friday as he pulled his JGR teammates with him. I am not surprised by this as in every race Gibbs ran in 2021 he was one of the most dominant cars. Gibbs has never raced on a Superspeedway in an Xfinity car, but he did finish fourth in the Daytona race in the ARCA Series in 2021.

Brandon Jones ($9,300)

Narrative alert!!! Thanks to my NASCAR DFS Apprentice, we have a narrative alert with Brandon Jones’ birthday being Saturday. What better present could he give himself than a win in the opening race of the season. Jones, like his team Ty Gibbs, was fast in practice as we saw them work together with teammate Drew Dollar in the draft. These three cars will be trying to link up on Saturday as well to keep them up front and fight off all the fast Chevy’s behind them.

Landon Cassill ($9,400)

Cassill is arguably in his best ride ever in the Xfinity Series as he takes over in the #10 Chevy for Kaulig Racing. Kaulig always puts out great cars for Superspeedways and I expect Saturday will be no different. I don’t even want to use Cassill’s previous results here as a gauge for his potential this weekend because like I mentioned he’s never been in a car this good.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Ryan Truex ($7,000)

Truex is in the #26 Toyota for Sam Hunt Racing this weekend. While this is an SHR car, they are getting help from JGR so you can expect Truex to try and get in line with the JGR Toyota’s as he did in practice on Friday. Truex hasn’t raced at Daytona in the Xfinity Series since 2018, but he had two good finishes in both races here that year. If Truex can hang with the JGR cars he could have a great day.

Austin Hill ($8,100)

Hill and teammate Sheldon Creed will be driving for RCR this season as both make the jump to running fulltime in the Xfinity Series. Depending on what happens in qualifying, I prefer Hill as of writing because of his price. If the top tier guys qualify poorly we may need to save some salary. Both Creed and Hill ran practice speeds that ranked them in the 20’s. Assuming that’s where they qualify they will both be high upside plays

Other Options: Anthony Alfredo ($7,500)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Jade Buford ($6,200)
Ronnie Bassett Jr. ($4,700)
Ryan Vargas ($5,000)
Matt Mills ($5,300)
Caesar Bacarella ($5,600)
Mason Massey ($5,200)
Bayley Currey ($5,100)

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Truck Series from Daytona 2/18

Matt Vecchio 3 years ago

written by Matt Vecchio

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Truck series for the 2022 season! If you’ve been with us before then, you know the drill, but welcome if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Trucks are back on the track!

After a long offseason (not really) the trucks are back on the track this weekend from Daytona! There have been a lot of changes during the offseason but a lot of the top drivers are still in the field. Included in those drivers is reigning series champion, Ben Rhodes. Also back for another run at a title is John Hunter Nemechek and Matt Crafton.

Another change this season is the series is going back to practice and single lap qualifying so my articles will have a different look in 2022 because I will not have starting positions available to me when writing. I will use practice speeds and track history to give my thoughts on the field, but on most race days you will NEED to be in discord after qualifying (typically 2 hours before lock) to get my final thoughts. When we had qualifying in 2021 we typically had great days if you were in discord and made the appropriate changes. A lot of times the field will set their lineups and not come back to check who makes the race and where they start. Speaking of making the race, only 36 trucks will race on Friday night, so five trucks will be going home after qualifying on Friday.

Roster Construction

If you’ve played NASCAR DFS before then you probably have an idea of how we build lineups for tracks like Daytona. If you don’t, well there’s a hashtag for it, #Stacktheback. You want drivers from the back, specifically 20th and back. Last season at this race only one driver in the optimal lineup started higher than 20th (Carson Hocevar – P12). Another thing you need to understand is the fact you WILL have salary leftover and a lot of it. I know it is a hard thing to do, but it is a must. Last season at this race the optimal lineup only used $39,700 in salary leaving over $10K on the table. If you are showing me lineups in discord this weekend and you used your entire $50K I will know you didn’t read this section.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier ($9K +)

I don’t plan on rostering many drivers from this tier unless something dramatically bad happens in qualifying. I won’t spend too much time breaking anyone down from this tier for that reason.

Ben Rhodes ($9,700)

Starting Position: 27th

Rhodes won this race last season from P23 and will start further back from that spot on Friday. I still see Rhodes as a potential winner here since his truck was fast in practice. This leads me to believe that he is in race trim and did not care too much about where he starts. Rhodes is the top overall play in this race.

Matt Crafton ($9,500)

Starting Position: 29th

After Rhodes, Crafton slots in as the next best play in this race. Crafton had a top 15 truck in practice on Thursday and could easily win this race. As an experienced driver with 21 career starts at Daytona (only wrecking 3 times) in a truck, Crafton is a driver I trust and will have a lot of exposure to.

John Hunter Nemechek ($10,500)

Starting Position: 2nd

JNH was the best driver last season but just missed out on the title. If anyone from this tier would be able to avoid the big ones on Friday night it would be Nemechek. We know he has the best equipment in the field and if he is able to avoid all the carnage Nemechek could have a great night. This is a super-risky play, but if anyone can start up front and end up in victory lane, it’s Nemechek.

Other Options: Zane Smith ($10,200) – P20

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K-$8.9K)

Johnny Sauter ($8,500)

Starting Position: 36th

Sauter is a three-time winner at Daytona and is in the G2G Racing #47 on Friday. This is a downgrade for Sauter after moving on from ThorSport and at any other track, I would be fading Sauter but at Daytona nobody outside the front row is a fade necessarily. Sauter was 9th fastest in practice because he ran in the draft a lot, but when he ran alone he was much slower. This was proven by his poor qualifying effort, but I fully expect Sauter to be top 10 at the end of the day.

Derek Kraus ($7,600)

Starting Position: 30th

As with every driver in this article, it will all depend on where they qualify, but Kraus has a fast truck and if he qualifies far enough back he could be one of the top drivers in this race. Last season Kraus wrecked out early and finished where he started in P33, but in 2020, Kraus finished 4th after starting from P16. Kraus was second in practice on Thursday.

Carson Hocevar ($8,000)

Starting Position: 22nd

Hocevar is a talented driver who finished 5th at this race last season. Overall 2021 was a success for Hocevar and he is expected to improve on his 8 top 10’s and 3 top 5’s in 2022. This is a semi-risky play because there are better options lower in price than Hocevar but he will come in at lower ownership than those plays and could be a factor in getting you a takedown as opposed to min cashing.

Other Options: Parker Kligerman ($8,600) – P31, Tanner Gray ($7,500) – P24

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier

Because of how qualifying turned out you can get by with only 3 of these drivers in your lineups, but the higher-priced drivers will be the chalkier plays. I will recommend fading some of them and going 4 deep on the value plays especially if playing multiple lineups.

Tate Fogleman ($6,300) – P32
Timmy Hill ($5,100) – P35
Hailie Deegan ($6,900) – P26 (Deegan was 5th in practice, dark horse pick to win this race)
Jason M. White ($4,700) – P33 (If you played Truck Series last season this is a different Jason White)
Danny Bohn ($5,500) -P28
Thad Moffitt ($5,900) – P34
Bret Holmes ($6,600) – P21

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series BlueGreen Vacation Duels from Daytona

rmferenc@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2022 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Destination: Daytona!

Welcome to Speed Week from Daytona! After a fun and entertaining exhibition race from the LA Coliseum two weeks ago NASCAR prepares for their Super Bowl from Dayton Beach, Florida! While Daytona is still a few days away, we do have some racing to look forward to tonight. The BlueGreen Vacations Duels from Daytona take place tonight to set the field for Sunday’s Daytona 500. Both Kyle Larson and Alex Bowman know they will lead the field to green on Sunday afternoon, but beyond that nothing is set. Well, I shouldn’t say nothing is set because both Noah Gragson and Jacques Villeneuve locked themselves into the 500 on speed Wednesday night in qualifying but their starting position is still to be determined. There are now four drivers racing for the final two spots in tonight’s duels. Two of Kaz Grala, Timmy Hill, JJ Yeley, and Greg Biffle will have to race their way into Sunday’s big event tonight so they will be working hard on the track to make that happen. As for the rest of the field, they will just be running laps to get a feel for the track and more importantly keeping their cars clean and damage-free. We won’t see carnage as we will on Sunday in these races, they are generally tamer and tend to run fully clean.

How to build lineups for these races

Typically at Superspeedways, we want to stack drivers from the back of the field because when wrecks happen they will happen at the front of the field. These races are different because like I stated above, drivers aren’t too concerned with where they start and are just trying to get through this race clean. In fact, in the last 5 years (10 races) only two drivers that have started worse than 14th finished in the top 5. In that same time frame, only 18 drivers starting worse than P14 finished in the top 10. Stacking up drivers from the back of the field is not optimal in these races. Looking back to last season only two drivers starting 15th or worse finished in the top 10 of Duel #2 and the other eight drivers all started inside the top 10.

As for the first duel, it was slightly different. Four of the six drivers in the optimal lineup started inside the top 12 and only two started lower than 15th. In both races, all six drivers in the optimal lineups finished in the top 10. In both races last the season the pole sitters dropped back and stayed safe and out of the way. To summarize, don’t roster the pole sitters in each race but do roster drivers starting in and around the top 10.

NASCAR DFS: Duel 1

Team Hendrick

Three of the four Hendrick Chevy’s are in this race, but we already know that Larson will not be pushing his car in this race and will likely fall to the back. Chase Elliott and William Byron start 2nd and 3rd in this duel and will likely lead a good chunk of the laps in this race and could finish 1-2. I like the strategy of stacking them together in builds for this race.

Right behind Elliott and Byron in this race are the two Trackhouse Chevy’s of Ross Chastain and Daniel Suarez. We could see them team up with the HMS cars to lead this race. Daniel Hemric, Justin Haley, and Tyler Reddick are also in Chevy’s so they all could team up together, but I would prefer to stick with the HMS cars and go in a different direction.

Are the Fords ahead of the field?

A lot of people have said the Fords are ahead of the curve and faster than both Chevy and Toyota. Ryan Blaney starts 7th and is the best Ford in this race. Blaney’s teammate Austin Cindric is also in this race starting from P11 and will most likely be joining Blaney to push towards the front. Other Ford’s in this race are Chase Briscoe, and his SHR teammate Cole Custer as well as Brad Keselowski and Todd Gilliland. All of these drivers have backup cars so they shouldn’t have an issue pushing themselves.

Lone Wolf

Kurt Busch is the lone Toyota in this duel and could have a hard time getting in the draft. I think he will try and race with the front back and starting from P13 he could be a decent pivot off the plays mentioned above if making multiple lineups.

Lineup Building Strategy:

Stack up 4-5 Fords in your lineups with one or both of Elliott and Byron

You can also use both HMS cars with the Trackhouse cars and two Fords.

NASCAR DFS: Duel 2

It’s Joe Gibbs world

This duel is all about the JGR and JGR-adjacent cars. All four of Joe Gibb’s Toyota’s and Bubba Wallace are in this race. I fully expect them to join up and be in the top 5 for this entire race. Similar to the first duel, the pole sitter (Alex Bowman) will most likely fall back and finish in the late teens leaving the top spot open to one of these Toyota’s.

More Ford love!

There are some other top-end Ford’s in this race, including Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, and Aric Almirola. These three could link up and run together to push the Toyota’s at some point. You can also include Michael McDowell and Chris Buescher in your Ford stacks for salary savings.

Lineup building strategy:

Stack the Toyota’s first and foremost. I would suggest only one of Denny Hamlin or Martin Truex Jr. They both start near the front so their upside is capper compared to the other Toyota’s.

While you can run all five JGR cars, I would suggest no more than four and adding two of the aforementioned Fords.

Ricky Stenhouse is the best of the few Chevy’s in this race with Bowman and Ty Dillon likely sitting towards the back.

David Ragan is a decent cheap option if needed starting P20 and likely finishing somewhere in the mid-teens.

NASCAR DFS: Wrapup

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