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NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series from Richmond 4/3

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Toyota Owners 400 from Richmond Raceway. Richmond is a short flat track that is similar to Phoenix. In the past, the Joe Gibbs Toyotas have dominated at this track but this season they have not been good at all. Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch have combined to win five of the last seven races at Richmond including the last time the series was here in the fall when Truex won and led 80 laps. Denny Hamlin finished second and led a race-high 197 laps. Overall in that race, JGR Toyota’s led a combined 326 of 400 laps.

On the other hand, we have seen drivers like Ross Chastain, Tyler Reddick, and Alex Bowman dominate early this season in the new NextGen car. While the Toyota’s were fast in practice, it will be hard to trust them based on what they have done THIS season. All three of Bell, Truex, and Busch have shown flashes of greatness this season, but Hamlin has been, well, trash this season. Hamlin doesn’t seem to have a grasp on the sequential shifting and personally, I want to see him have a good performance before I will consider rostering him. Let’s see what we come up with for this week.

Roster construction

DraftKings decided to make the salaries a joke this week and it looks like the optimal build will be to go with 2 dominators and load up on the mid-tier. With 400 laps in this race and 280 dominator points available it will be crucial to get as many of those points as possible. With this many points, scores will be high on Sunday.

***** I will be running 20 lineups today, so I will have exposure to drivers not in the article *****

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators) ($9K +)

Ryan Blaney ($9,400)

Starting Position: 1st

Practice was short and every team has its own objective but the 12 team fielded the fastest car in practice. Blaney was fastest in all lap averages except the 30 lap (Larson) and then landed on the pole in qualifying. Richmond has not been Blaney’s best track, but he does have his best two finishes ever in his last two races here. Earlier this season at Phoenix, Blaney finished 4th, led 143 laps, and had the second-best speed ranking. On the season, Blaney has the top overall speed ranking. Blaney is a potential dominator at an extremely low price and should be your top play on Sunday.

Kyle Larson ($10,200)

Starting Position: 21st

Larson starts deep in the field, so he is the best place differential play and works nicely with Blaney. We all know Larson has the potential to dominate this race right alongside Blaney and showed his long-run speed in practice. In that short practice session on Saturday, Larson was top 2 in all lap averages from 10-lap to 30-lap. In his last seven Richmond races, Larson has finished top 10 in five of them.

Martin Truex Jr. ($9,600)

Starting Position: 6th

Here is our first JGR Toyota on the list and he is likely to be the best one at the end of the day. If a Toyota is going to win this race, my money would be on Truex. In practice on Saturday, True was top five in 10, 15, and 20-lap average. Truex is running his most successful paint scheme this weekend as well, the blue Auto-Owners Insurance scheme (if you believe in that type of thing). All the Joe Gibbs teams have a new setup for this race, and after practice Truex was gushing over how well his car felt and ran, so I think there is a good chance this team has their car ready for Sunday.

Other Options: Chase Elliott ($10,500 – P15) – Good PD upside and showed decent speed in practice. Kyle Busch ($9,900 – P3) – If the JGR cars have figured out the car for Sunday, Kyle could lead 200 laps and win. Unfortunately, we know until the race starts, but I am willing to take the risk with Kyle. Joey Logano ($9,200 – P11) – Logano runs well at Richmond and has top-fives in four of his last five here.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Ross Chastain ($8,900)

Starting Position: 8th

Chastain is hot right now coming off his victory last week at COTA. Coming into this weekend, Chastain has an average finish of 2nd in the last four races and has not finished lower than 3rd in any of those races. Earlier this season at Phoenix, Chastain finished 2nd, was the fastest driver late in a run and had the 6th best green flag speed. Chastain and the 1 team didn’t push their car in practice because it seems like they know they are good. I expect another solid finish and top 5 from Chastain on Sunday.

Alex Bowman ($8,500)

Starting Position: 28th

Bowman is the reigning winner of the spring race here at Richmond and should be highly owned on Sunday. We saw the chalk rule the day on Saturday and I think we may need to look to those types of builds as well on Sunday. I love the upside Bowman has in this race and his car was faster in practice than 28th. On Sunday, look for Bowman to be a top 10 car with top 5 upside.

Tyler Reddick ($8,200)

Starting Position: 16th

Reddick is way too cheap for his upside this week, especially now that he is starting from P16. This season, Reddick has been one of the fastest cars each and every week. At Phoenix this year, Reddick finished 3rd and had the fourth-best speed ranking.

Other Options: Austin Dillon ($7,000 – P25) – Similar to Reddick and Bowman, Dillon has huge upside for cheap. Kurt Busch ($7,900 – P27) – Busch was good at Phoenix this season and if the Gibbs cars are good, so should the 23XI cars. Daniel Suarez ($7,800 – P14) – Suarez like his teammate Chastain, has been having a great season. I expect him to be lower owned than Chastain and could be a great pivot off the chalk. Erik Jones ($7,600 – P5) – The upside on Jones is capped but he has been having a resurgence this year in the new car. I like Erik Jones as a great GPP play.

Value Tier (Under $7K)

Bubba Wallace ($5,900) – P29: Wallace is another driver underpriced on this slate. I don’t expect Wallace to carry much ownership in what could be a huge DFS day for him.
Ty Dillon ($5,200) – P30: Dillon has only one finish outside the top 20 this season(Atlanta – wreck) and should be seen as a top 20 driver again on Sunday.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,500) – P32: Stenhouse perpetually runs near the front, but has some type of incident that sends him back and ends his day. I will go back to the well on Sunday and hope for a better result.
AJ Allmendinger ($6,700) – P26: Dinger ran exceptionally well in the Xfinity race on Saturday finishing 4th. I don’t expect that type of run on Sunday, but a top 20 is definitely in the cards.
Justin Haley ($6,300) – P36: Haley will be down a lap early, but he should get it back early. On Saturday, Haley was running top 20 laps in practice and has an avg finish of 17.7 on the season.
Corey Lajoie ($5,400) – P31: Lajoie looks like a top 25 car with top 20 upside on Sunday. His price is low, and the PD upside is there but there are other drivers in better equipment I like more.
Chris Buescher ($6,800) – P18: Buescher has value if you are playing large-field GPPs, but otherwise he is too risky for cash or SE.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series from Richmond 4/2

Matt Vecchio 3 years ago

written by Matt Vecchio

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop breakdown for Richmond! This will be the second short track race of the season for the Xfinity Series. The last time the series was here Noah Gragson went to victory lane, stealing a victory away from Ty Gibbs who dominated this race leading 67 laps. Both of these drivers will be favorites to win this race again on Saturday, but they aren’t my pick (more on that later). This is once again a weekend where we don’t have practice or qualifying prior to writing this article. This is a track where I think I have a handle on who will perform well, but we still need to wait for qualifying before building rosters. Make sure to check back in Discord after qualifying on Saturday morning to see if any changes are made to the player pool.

Roster Construction

With there being 175 dominator points available in this race, we will need to try and get exposure to as many drivers who could dominate this race as possible. My ideal roster construction will be a stars and scrubs type build, but it’s not 100% necessary. There are different ways to build for races like this, but it will come down to qualifying on Saturday.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier ($9K +)

John Hunter Nemechek ($10,400)

Nemechek will be in the #18 Toyota for JGR this weekend. This car has been incredibly fast all season and should be no different on Saturday. If you remove the two times this car wrecked this season and when Bubba Wallace drove it at COTA you have three races with Trevor Bayne behind the wheel. In those three races, Bayne led 100 laps and had two top-five finishes. Last season in the Sam Hunt #26, JHN drove from 27th to finish 3rd in much lesser equipment, and in the Truck Series race, Nemeheck led 114 of 250 laps after starting 18th to win. Richmond is a good track for Nemechek, and in top-tier equipment, he will be a force to be reckoned with.

Justin Allgaier ($10,600)

Richmond has been a place of greatness for Allgaier in recent years. Allgaier has won two of the last three races here leading 213 laps in the process. Allgaier also has five straight top 5 finishes here and seven in the last ten races. I don’t really care where Allgaier and the 7 car qualify, I will have exposure because of his ability to dominate here.

Noah Gragson ($10,900)

Allgaier has been the best driver here in the last six years, but Gragson is pushing him for that title. In six career races at Richmond, Gragson has only finished lower than 9th one time (22nd in Spring ’19). Gragson won this race last season while only leading 22 laps. In 2022, Gragson has been the best and most consistent driver in the Xfinity Series. If you remove his finish in Atlanta (contact in a big wreck late) Gragson has not finished lower than 4th in a race this season. Also in 2022, Gragson has led at least 12 laps in every race except for COTA.

Other Options: AJ Allmendinger ($10,200), Ty Gibbs ($11,500), Sheldon Creed ($9,000), Ryan Preece ($9,800)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Sam Mayer ($8,700)

Sam Mayer has performed exceptionally well at short tracks in his young career thus far. In three career short track races, Mayer has two top 10s and a top 5. Last season at this race, Mayer started 38th but came across the finish line in 12th place. Mayer was in the #99 car that week, not the higher-end JRM equipment he drives now. Mayer is a fringe top 5 candidate but likely will have a top 10 car on Saturday.

Jeb Burton ($7,500)

Burton has been having a pretty solid season in the #27 Our Motorsports Chevy. Before he finished 23rd last week, Burton had finished top 20 every this season. Burton has finished 12th or better in three of the last four Richmond races and overall has finished top 20 in five of his six career Xfinity Series races here. I need to take a wait-and-see approach with Burton on Saturday. For him to make value, Burton will need to qualify in the mid 20’s.

Jeremy Clements ($7,200)

Clements is not the best play in this tier, but my goal in this article is to help you build lineups and if we want to roster three $10K+ drivers we will need drivers in the low $7K range to make that work. While I may not consider him the best option, Clements has performed admirably at Richmond in his career. Clements has eight finishes of 17th or better in the last ten Richmond races and if he qualifies far enough back Clements could turn into one of the top plays on the slate.

Other Options: Riley Herbst ($8,100), Autin Hill ($8,400), Brett Moffitt ($7,900), Anthony Alfredo ($7,400)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)

Mason Massey ($6,000)
Joey Gase ($5,300)
Josh Williams ($5,400)
Ryan Vargas ($5,100)
Brandon Brown ($6,900)
JJ Yeley ($6,200)
Parker Retzlaff ($6,400)

Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Premium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series from COTA 3/27

rmferenc@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the first road course of the season at Circuit of the Americas, otherwise known as COTA. This winding 3.4-mile road course produces some great action but is a difficult course for NASCAR since it was designed for Formula 1 racing. While I may reference practice speeds in this article, they aren’t the end all be all for me. No driver ran more than seven laps in practice so it’s hard to get a real gauge on what these cars can do. Because this race was run with a different car and in the rain, it is hard to use that race as a basis on how this race will go. No matter the generation of car or weather, good road course drivers always prevail and Sunday will be no different. I’ve mentioned it previously this weekend, but we are not chasing dominator points in this race. With only 68 laps in this race, it means we only have 47.6 dominator points available.

Roster construction

Looking at salaries and drivers we want to play, this seems like a 3-1-2 build for me. This means I want three dominators with two value drivers. Depending on which value drivers you go with, you can either roster a mid $8K or low $7K mid-tier driver. There are really a lot of different ways to go, but that style build is where I think the best path to victory will come from.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators) ($9K +)

Chase and the Two Kyle’s!

These three drivers are the top three priced drivers and will all be starting between 12th and 15th on Sunday. I like all three of these drivers and anticipate having plenty of exposure to all three of them.

Chase Elliott ($10,500 – P12)

Elliott is my favorite of this group and the one driver I would focus on fitting in if you’re building only one lineup. I hope you have some time because the list of accomplishment’s on road course I am about to go through could take a while. Over his last eight road course races, Chase has the most wins (3 – tied with Larson), best average finish (5.5), and the most top 5’s (6). Elliott is second to Larson in both average fastest laps per race and laps led per race. Elliott also trails only Larson in average running position with an avg RP of 8.7 (6.6 for Larson). Lastly, Elliott has the most average DKFP and FDFP per race during this eight-race span. I know Elliott will carry some high ownership, but when someone is as dominant as Elliott has been it’s hard to fade that kind of upside.

Kyle Larson ($10,400 – P13)

I listed a few of the things Larson has over Elliott above, so you already know he is a solid play at this track type. Larson has three wins and four top 5’s in the last 5 road course races. I know that Larson’s Chevy was not that fast in practice and he had some issues with it, but this team will have this car ready for Larson on Sunday and he will surely move through the field when the green flag flies.

Kyle Busch ($10,200 – P15)

As I mentioned in Saturday’s Xfinity article, Busch dominated this race in that series last year and he also ran well on Saturday in the Truck Series race. Busch clearly has this track down and should be a contender for the win on Sunday. In the last five races at this track type, Busch has four top 5’s and an average finishing position of 7.2. During this same stretch of races, Kyle is second to only Elliot in DKFP and FDFP per race.

William Byron ($9,300)

Starting Position: 24th

William Byron has been a solid road course racer of late, but he just doesn’t have the results. Over the last five road course races, Byron has an average finish of 23.6 but his averaging running position is 10.5. Last season at this track type, Byron has a sixth place finish and two 11th place finishes but then had four finishes in the 30’s. I know there is a lot of negativity there about Byron, but he has had some bad luck with good cars and hopefully momentum is on his side coming off a victory last week. I view Byron as a top 10 car on Sunday.

Austin Cindric ($9,500)

Starting Position: 10th

Cindric was known as a road course specialist earlier in his career, he has since evolved into an all-around racer who can win on any track type. In three career Cup Series road course races, Cindric has not had any real success but no by his own doing. At Indianapolis G.P., Cindric fiished 9th but at both Road America and COTA he had issues and finished 38th and 25th. Cindric is a GPP only play for me and is not safe for SE or cash.

Other Options: All the drivers in this tier are in play for us on Sunday. Looking at the remaining drivers, I rank them as such:

Martin Truex Jr. ($9,700 – P17)
Joey Logano ($9,100 – P6)
Ryan Blaney ($10,000 – P1)
Denny Hamlin ($9,800 – P8)
Christopher Bell ($9,000 – P7)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

This week the mid-tier is loaded with great plays, the top one is semi-obvious if you watched the Xfinity Series race on Saturday. AJ Allmendinger ($8,800 – P20) was the class of the race and is a dominant road course racer. I know Dinger will be popular, and a fade here is risky, but I won’t argue against it either.

Ross Chastain ($8,200)

Starting Position: 16th

Chastain, and Daniel Suarez ($7,100 – P2), are both great plays this week as they have been all season. Trackhouse Racing seems to have the Next Gen car figured out. Chastain was running up front all day in the Xfinity race before being spun out on the last restart by Landon Cassill. While his finish wasn’t what he deserved on Saturday, Chastain has this track down it appears and should be a top 10 lock with top 5 upside.

Tyler Reddick ($8,400)

Starting Position: 4th

Could Tyler Reddick break up the Hendrick party at the top (I mean, he is kind of Hendrick adjacement, but I digress)? Reddick has been fast all season and he ran well here at COTA last year in this race. In that race, Reddick started from the pole and finished 3rd in stage 2 and was running 5th late in the race before spinning. Reddick came back to finish with a top 10 in that race. In the final road course race of 2021, the Charlotte Roval, Reddick finished 2nd, his best finish in a Cup race.

Erik Jones ($7,400)

Starting Position: 30th

Jones was spectacular at road courses in 2021 with an average finish of 14th and didn’t finish lower than 19th in any race. In 2022, Jones and the 43 team have shown speed all season and they should be in contention for a solid finish again on Sunday. When it comes to Jones, he is a good driver, he just has some bad luck occasionally and if he can avoid those hiccups on Sunday he could be a top play and compete for a top 10.

Other Options: Chase Briscoe ($8,900 – P14), Chris Buesher ($7,300 – P22), Alex Bowman ($8,500 – P5)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)

Joey Hand ($5,000) – P38: Hand was looking fast in practice but had a tire come apart late and shredded the car. This #15 will be getting help from Stewart-Haas so we know it will be fast. There is minimal risk with this play making him chalky, but it’s good chalk. I see Hand as the top value play.
Michael McDowell ($6,200) – P27: McDowell had success early at road courses in 2021, but was not as successful late on. This is a risky play, but there is plenty of upside with McDowell.
Ty Dillon ($5,100) – P33: Dillon has finished 26th or better in all five of his last five road course races with an average finish of 21.8.
Kaz Grala ($5,900) – P31: Grala is a road course specialist and he ran well here in the Truck Series last season. Grala finished 2nd and led 11 laps in that race.
Corey Lajoie ($5,400) – P32: In 2021 at this track, Lajoie finished 20th and had an 18.3 average running position.
Ricky Stenhouse ($6,900) – P28: Stenhouse had a 17.2 average finish at road courses in 2021. This is a risky play but with top 15 upside, a low owned Stenhouse could be a difference maker.
Andy Lally ($5,200) – P39: Lally had issues with his car on Saturday and was unable to make a practice run and qualifying appearance. On Sunday, Lally will be seen as a mid 30’s play.

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

Formula 1 DFS: Raceweek Saudi Arabia March 27th

Warren Kosoy 3 years ago

written by Warren Kosoy

Review of Bahrain Grand Prix

Welcome to the Formula 1 DFS Raceweek for March 27th. First of all, A huge Congrats to @josh.barzal in his week 1 take down! Happy to see WDS at the top. Lets keep it going, into Round 2 of the Formula 1 season.

In the first race of the F1 season we saw Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc battle in Bahrain for the top position. Charles was very strategic in his driving, allowing Max to overtake him in positions on track where Charles knew his Ferrari could easily take the position back. The battle upfront was fun until the late stages of the race, where the Red Bull of Max and his teammate, Sergio Perez suffered mechanical issues and did not finish the race. If the season continues like this, we should be seeing some thrilling racing for the rest of the year.

After a clean start from all 20 drivers; Valterri Bottas $7600 dropped out the top 10 early due to a poor start. Meanwhile his teammate Zhou Guanyu $4600 moved through the field earning a solid 5 total points for his race efforts. Zhou wont be one I’ll roster a lot. If he continues to qualify in the rear of the pack then he’ll be a value driver for DFS.

Ferrari resurgence:

Ferrari, Haas, and Alfa Romeo made up 50% of the top 10 finishing positions as they finished 1,2,5,6,10. Depending on where and how much they are race to race, these drivers and teams might be the teams we need to focus on early for DFS purposes. The rest of the field have some work to due. Speaking of the rest of the field…

Red Bulls DNF:

After Max Verstappen $10,800, Sergio Perez $9200, and Red Bull junior team, Alpha Tauri’s Pierre Gasly $7200 all failed to finish the race. They should be bouncing back in force this weekend as they were consistently in the top 10 on Friday in Free Practice 1 & 2. Red Bull Racing is properly priced at $9800 this weekend, but if AlphaTauri continue their top performing practice pace, then $4800 is going to be a price tag that should allow us to get higher priced drivers. (but maybe not this weekend) One set of top priced drivers we might want to avoid…

Mercedes’ Woes:

The Mercedes’ Silver Arrows were definitely the 3rd best overall team on the race track last week. As a result, the price tags of Lewis Hamilton $10,200 and George Russel $8600 are tough to stomach. Williams and McLaren Mercedes did not do much to be excited about. Alex Albon $3200 looks like an easy “defeated teammate” automatic 5 points right now; And McLaren look to have started on a better foot this weekend compared to their disastrous one last weekend in Bahrain. Daniel Ricciardo did beat his teammate and finished, so he did score 8 points; this week he is even cheaper by $3000 ($4200) and if he outscores his teammate again, he could be another key value piece.

The other runners:

The Alpine $5200 were battling for the last two points paying positions for majority of the race with AlphaTauri $4800. Both teams are cheap so they should present good value this weekend in Saudi Arabia. Aston Martin looks to be in shambles right now, so I would use Lance Stroll for the 5 defeat teammate points, but leave the rest of Aston Martin alone…Embarrassing James Bond.

DK Scoring top plays

LeClerc 38.90 points, Hamilton 21, Sainz 19.10, Russell 16, and Magnussen 16. The Top 5 teams were: Ferrari 61 points, Mercedes 34, and Alfa Romeo 16, Alpine 15, and Haas 12. Of the top 5 overall scorers, we had 2 teams, (finishing 1,2 and 3,4) and the three drivers on the podium.

Looking at the scoring we should be prioritizing the constructor position for our DFS lineups after we choose our captains. The amount of fantasy points that can be achieved from the constructor spot could be higher than any driver, even in the captain position.

For Raceweek: Saudi Ariba it’s going to be Red Bull/Ferrari. Alpine will be in the DK lineup mix too, they are just too cheap.

Formula 1 DFS: Raceweek Saudi Arabia Preview

Jeddah is nothing like Bahrain. With high speed corners and flowing turns that are basically a straight. It made it’s debut to the F1 calendar last year and was controversial on and off the race track. Jeddah was originally constructed to be narrower, with less visibility going into upcoming turns. Consequently we saw 2 red flags and 3 safety car periods due to incidents. The circuit directors have made improvements to those concerns, so we shall see how the race plays out, but honestly its tight high speed track, anything can happen. We have already lost a car for Sunday as Mick Schumacher crashed out during qualifying.

Formula 1 DFS: Raceweek Saudi Arabia Top Captain Options

Charles Leclerc $17,400/$11,600 has the overall quickest times in both Friday practice sessions. He was the quickest Ferrari in qualifying, but did not do enough to put his Ferrari on pole. Leclerc starts 2nd behind Red Bull’s Sergio Perez. He could be in position to overtake Sergio, dominate in P1, lead laps, beat his teammate and be worthy of his most expensive driver price tag on Draftkings.

Carlos Sainz $14,700/$9800 starts 3rd on the grid. Even though he has shown more speed than Perez over the weekend, he failed to beat Perez in qualifying. He also has Max Verstappen right behind him. Consequently, Carlos will be in my pool, but I cant say Ill be using a lot of Carlos Sainz this weekend.

Sergio Perez $13,800/$9200 Pole Sitter. Sergio has shown speed all weekend, but mainly in position 4. He put together a gem of a lap and qualified at the top spot. I don’t see him staying there and falling back, but he should not be anywhere less than P4 unless something crazy happens.

Max Verstappen $16,200/$10,800 Verstappen and his Red Bull have every chance of over taking all 3 drivers ahead of him and ending up in the top spot. I’m going to rotate through the top 4 drivers in the captain spot, have the Red Bull Racing and Ferrari teams in the constructor spot, and build the rest of my DFS lineups from there.

Formula 1 DFS: Raceweek Saudi Arabia Top Mid-priced Options

Valtteri Bottas $7600 showed up in the top 10 times in fp1, fp2, fp3 and qualified 6th. Valtteri is firmly in play for positioning and beat teammate bonus points.

Pierre Gasly $7200 is in the same boat as Valterri, he should be able to get max points for Alpha Tauri and as long as nothing catastrophic happens, he should be a good mid priced play. The AlphaTauri was 2nd quickest team in fp1 and in the top 10 fp2. If Yuki, Pierre’s teammate did not have fuel issues, the AlphaTauri would have been my heaviest used value team in DraftKings.

Fernando Alonso $6200/Esteban Ocon $5600 Esteban and Fernando have been pretty even all weekend, so I would use both in my player pool and rotate between them for pricing and points. The Alpine and Alpha Tauri have been battling for the 4th best team all weekend; due to Alpha Tauri’s late weekend issues, the Alpine drivers and team have won that battle. Of the top 10 drivers on the grid, the Alpine drivers are the least expensive, making for great values.

Mid-priced DFS honorable mention:

Kevin Magnussen $8000 had reliability issues on Friday. He set the 10th quickest speed in qualifying so his car looks good enough to be raced. His Hass already demonstrated hydraulic issues last week’s weekend and the issue continued this weekend during practice. A cautionary tale, to say the least. His teammate, Mick Schumacher had a major crash in qualifying so Kevin will get the automatic 5 points for beating his teammate. If he stays in position 10 he would get a total of 7 points, which isn’t much for 8k. An honorable mention just in case wild stuff happens in front of him, but he will be one of my lower owned plays in DFS lineups.

Formula 1 DFS: Raceweek Saudi Arabia Top Value Options

Lance Stroll and Alex Albon should both beat their teammates, so getting that 5 points, and a point for finishing at $3400 and $3200 is good value.

Value DFS Honorable Mentions

Daniel Ricciardo $4200 Mclaren have shown a pulse this weekend. He is cheaper than his teammate and just like the Alpine’s there has not been Ricciardo and his teammate Lando Norris. Ricciardo is very worthy of roster consideration this weekend.

Yuki Tsunoda experienced reliability issues in FP3 so he was unable to qualify. He has shown pace all weekend so Im not opposed to putting him in some DFS lineups for differentiation.

Formula 1 DFS: Raceweek Saudi Arabia Constructor Options

The Ferrari $10,800 and Red Bull $9800 teams should be the focus on the roster spot for Draftkings. These two teams were clearly the top teams all weekend, and their drivers should occupy the top 4 positions on Sunday.

Value DFS Team Options

The Alpine $5200 was in the top 12 all weekend. I can see both drivers finishing in the top 10 making the Alpine a great value in the constructor position.

Formula 1 DFS: Raceweek Saudi Arabia Final Thoughts

Due to the wild nature of this track, I’m looking to enforce some serious bankroll management. I’m going to rotate through the top 4 guys the most mixing in the value plays. Constructor will be my second position filled as a dominant race weekend from a team can give you the most points in Formula 1 DFS.

If you have any questions please don’t hesitate to reach out @tcuz86 in the Win Daily Sports NASCAR Discord Chat.

Thanks for reading Formula 1 DFS: Raceweek Saudi Arabia and Good Luck

Theodore

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series from COTA 3/26

rmferenc@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop breakdown for Circuit of the Americas (aka COTA)! This track is a 3.4-mile road track that produces some exciting racing. COTA is a 20-turn track with a large 133-foot hill in turn one. Similar to the Truck Series, no driver starting lower than 12th finished inside the top 10 in this race last season. Kyle Busch led 35 of 46 laps from the pole last year here. Luckily Kyle is not in this race, but I do see one or two drivers who could dominate this race as Busch did in 2021.

Roster Construction

COTA, as it at all road courses, is not a place to go hunting for dominator points. At this race on Saturday, there are only 48 laps so that means there are only 33.6 dominator points available. When building lineups for road courses you generally look to finishing position and place differential plays. There are some good value plays starting deep in the field to give you the potential PD plays combined with a couple of great drivers starting near or at the front of the field.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier ($9K +)

AJ Allmendinger ($10,500)

Starting Position: 4th

Most of you probably already know this, but Allmendinger is one of the premier road course drivers in all of NASCAR. Over his last seven road course races in the Xfinity Series, Allmendinger has six top 5’s, two victories, and is averaging 44.4 DKFP. The next best driver in this race when it comes to DKFP per race is a full 11.4 points lower than Allmendinger. AJ is the class of the field when it comes to this track type and he will be in a high percentage of my lineups on Saturday.

Ty Gibbs ($10,400)

Starting Position: 1st

Gibbs is still incredibly young but he is blazing his own path of greatness in the Xfinity Series and on road courses. Last season Gibbs ran six road course races and won two of them and finished top 5 in three total. With the amount of value in this race, I really like the path of using both Gibbs and Allmendinger as your dominators as I think one of these two drivers will win this race.

Cole Custer ($9,500)

Starting Position: 3rd

Custer has already won a race in the Xfinity Series this season and will look to do it again on Saturday. Road Courses are traditionally a great track type for Custer, but he does have ten top 10’s in twelve career road course races. Custer does have an outside chance of winning this race in my opinion after seeing how well his car ran in practice, but realistically I see Custer as a top 5 finisher.

Other Options: Brandon Jones ($9,100 – P38): Jones’ car stalled in practice and was not able to run any laps and did make a qualifying effort. There is some concern here, but I am confident the JGR team will get his car working before the green flag drops on Saturday. Because of where he’s starting, Jones will be the ultimate chalk play but I think you can fade him if you’re building one lineup, but you should have some exposure if doing multiple builds. Noah Gragson ($9,900 – P12): Gragson is a decent road course driver but had a bad finish here last year. I see Gragson as a top 10 car with top 5 upside. Daniel Hemric ($9,700 – P19)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Sheldon Creed ($8,700)

Starting Position: 6th

If you read the Truck Series article then you already know how great Creed can be at this track type. This race will be Creed’s first Xfinity Series race in a competitive car on Saturday and with the speed he showed in practice on Friday I see this car as a top 5 finisher. Creed was 2nd fastest in single lap time on Friday and will be hopping into his Xfinity car right after he finishes in the truck race. I don’t see fatigue being an issue for Creed and you can roster him without worry.

Parker Kligerman ($8,300)

Starting Position: 11th

Kligerman is pretty much a carbon copy of Creed. Both are excellent road course drivers who will be running in the Truck Series races prior to this race on Saturday. Kligerman will be in the 35 car that has had a few quality races this season but Kligerman is the best driver to get in this car in 2022 and a top 10 is not out of the question here.

Myatt Snider ($7,200)

Starting Position: 21st

Snider is a solid cheap play in this tier that probably won’t be incredibly popular. In eleven career races at this track type, Snider has three top 10’s and an average finish of 17th. I don’t expect a huge day out of Snider on Saturday, but a top 15 would suffice for him to make value.

Other Options: Miguel Paludo ($8,900 – P17), Riley Herbst ($8,100 – P22), Josh Berry ($7,900 – P25)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)

Brandon Brown ($6,400) – P28: Brown is one of my favorite plays on this slate. In 15 career road course races, Brown owns a career avg finish inside the top 20.
Jeb Burton ($6,100) – P20: Burton is quietly a really good road course racers. Last season here, Burton finished 10th. I don’t think he’s in a top 10 car this week, but a top 15 is definitely possible.
Scott Heckert ($6,300) – P32: Heckert is a road course specialist who has fared well in both Cup and Xfinity Series races. There are better options, but not at ownership this low.
Alex Labbe ($6,500) – P5: Labbe is probably the best driver in this tier when it comes to this track type but his upside is limited. I stll think Labbe makes for a great GPP play.
Patrick Gallagher ($5,200) – P30: Another road course specialist that has top 20 potential.
Jeremy Clements ($6,800) – P26: Clements has the best PD upside for drivers in this price range.
Ryan Sieg ($6,200) – P35: Sieg is hot and cold each week it seems but with his price and upside he is worth the risk this week
Josh Bilicki ($5,700) – P27: Showed some speed in practice, has good upside.
Will Rodgers ($5,900) – P37: Proceed with caution on Rodgers. He was unable to make a practice and qualifying lap so he will start near the back. If his car is fixed at race time, he will be a top play.

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Truck Series from COTA 3/26

rmferenc@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop breakdown for Circuit of the Americas (aka COTA)! This track is a 3.4-mile road track that produces some exciting racing. COTA is a 20-turn track with a large 133-foot hill in turn one. Last season in this race four of the drivers starting inside the top 5 finished there. Only six drivers finished off the lead lap and only two failed to finish the race altogether.

Roster Construction

COTA, as it at all road courses, is not a place to go hunting for dominator points. At this race on Saturday, there are only 41 laps so that means there are only 28.7 dominator points available. When building lineups for road courses you generally look to finishing position and place differential plays. Last season in this race it was a more balanced build that was the optimal lineup, but with Kyle Busch in the field for Saturday’s race, I think you will need more than one value play to fit him in. This will be one race where you can consider fading Busch at his $13K salary because he will need to lead all laps and win to make value. Now, that is certainly a possibility and something I think can happen but it’s not a guarantee.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier ($9K +)

Kyle Busch ($13,000)

Starting Position: 5th

This will be Kyle’s first-ever road course race in the Truck Series, but that isn’t really an issue. We know KB has a good truck and will be running up front all day. The real question is, can he pay off his salary in such few laps in this race? I believe he can, but it will be difficult.

Sheldon Creed ($10,600)

Starting Position: 1st

Creed is a road course expert. In five career races on this track type, Creed has never finished outside the top 5 and has an average finish of 3rd. In practice on Friday, Creed put down the single best lap time, which is not surprising to me. If you want to fade KB, then I think Creed is the best option to use as your potential dominator.

Kaz Grala ($9,900)

Starting Position: 18th

Kaz Grala will be in the Young’s Motorsports 02 on Saturday and he should be a contender for a top 10. This truck has fared well this season, unfortunately, the one time Grala was in it the engine went. Grala has run five road course races in his Truck Series career and has three top 10’s and an average finish of 10.2. Grala ran exceptionally well in this race last season starting from the front row finishing right where he started in second place putting him in the optimal lineup.

Other Options: John Hunter Nemechek ($10,400 – P11): Nemechek has one win in 8 career RC races and has an avg finish of 9.3. I think there is value in JHN on Saturday, but I just like the upside of the three drivers above more. I also believe that Creed will carry far less ownership than Nemechek. Grant Enfinger ($9,300 – P16th): Enfinger was fast in practice and was one of the few drivers to run 8 laps. Last season in this race Enfinger started 23rd but finished 4th. I anticipate a similar performance on Saturday, but I think Grala comes in at lower ownership in this price range. Ben Rhodes ($9,500 – P13), Alex Bowman ($10,100 – P3)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K-$8.9K)

Tyler Ankrum ($8,300)

Starting Position:10th

Last season Ankrum started this race from the pole and would end up finishing 3rd. Ankrum was in the top 10 in DKFP for that race as well. In his career at road courses (5 races), Ankrum is averaging 37 DKFP per race which is second most of all drivers in this race (Creed – 44.4). I know there are better PD plays in this tier, but they will be much higher owned and I anticipate Ankrum carrying extremely low ownership.

Matt DiBenedetto ($8,900)

Starting Position: 36th

Speaking of high-owned drivers, here’s Matt DiBenedetto. Listen, I don’t care for DiBenedetto as a driver but he has done ok in the Truck Series this season. Last week was a rough week for the 25 team, but DiBenedetto looks to have a better truck this week. In practice on Friday, Matty D was 7th in single lap and he has the best place differential upside in the race. The only downside to rostering DiBenedetto will be his incredibly high ownership. If you are playing SE contests, then I will implore you to roster him.

Parker Kligerman ($8,500)

Starting Position: 4th

Kligerman is a fantastic road course racer and showed some good speed and handling in practice on Friday afternoon. In four career Truck Series road course races, Kligerman has three top 10’s and a top 5 leading to an 8.5 avg finish. Going back to practice, Kligerman was the fourth fastest truck in single lap time and will be a low-owned pivot off the obvious chalk of DiBenedetto.

Other Options: Ty Majeski ($7,700 – P19), Matt Crafton ($8,100 P20), Tanner Gray ($7,400 – P28)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)

Austin Wayne Self ($6,900) – P15
Hailie Deegan ($6,600) – P23
Tate Fogleman ($5,700) – P31
Dean Thompson ($5,500) – P33
Timmy Hill ($5,200) – P25
Jack Wood ($6,000) – P27
Will Rodgers ($5,800) – P34
Matt Jaskol (4,900) – P35

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Premium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series from Atlanta 3/20

rmferenc@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Atlanta has been renovated since the last time the NASCAR Cup Series was here in July of 2021. The 1.5 oval was reconfigured to have 28-degree banking from 24 degrees, which is higher than any other 1.5-mile track. The front stretch was widened as well. These changes were done to promote a superspeedway style of racing similar to Daytona and Talladega.

Kurt Busch stated that “Once we got out there in a group the pace picked up by over a second having the cars draft together… things were amplified way more than what we expected when we had just three cars drafting with each other”. Ross Chastain also said that you will “need friends to navigate the draft”. Both of these drivers tested tires for Goodyear at Atlanta back in January.

Roster construction

We saw it all come apart at the end of the Xfinity race on Saturday night and while that could happen on Sunday, I don’t think it will. There are some great place differential plays in this race, the best of those being Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr. One thing I did notice in the Xfinity race was you needed teammates to move through the field and the same will most likely be true on Sunday. Similar to MLB and NHL, stacking teammates might not be a bad idea. Now at the finish of the Xfinity race, the teammate pushing fell apart some, except for Kaulig, but it was key to leading laps early in the race. This is a 500-mile race with 325 laps on Sunday meaning we have 227.5 dominator points available in this race.

Looking at build types for this race, we don’t really need to value tier. Pricing is such that you can easily run a 2-3-1 type build with 2 dominators, 3 mid-tier, and one value. Depending on which top-tier drivers you use, a 3-2-1 build is also a possibility. No matter the build type you go with, I think one value driver is all you’ll need on Sunday.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators) ($9K +)

Kyle Larson ($10,500) [ Proj. Ownership: 52%]

Starting Position: 21st

Larson was not fast in single-lap speed, but over the long run he really picked it up. In the 5-lap average Larson was 10th, and he was top-5 in the 10, 15, and 20-lap averages as well. I know this is a new racing surface and the field will be racing differently on Sunday, but it’s hard to think that Larson won’t be good on Sunday and potentially dominate a good portion of this race.

Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas:

All four of their Cup cars were great in practice on Saturday. The best of the bunch may have been the driver not in this price tier, Christopher Bell ($7,700 – P27). Bell was the top car in 10-lap average as well as third in single lap speed. Kyle Busch ($9,800 – P4) was 2nd in single-lap speed, third in 10-lap avg, and he was atop the chart in five-lap avg. Denny Hamlin ($10,100 – P15) was 8th in single-lap speed and 5th in 10-lap average so it could be a good sign for the veteran. Hamlin has not had a good year so far, but this speed is promising for him. Lastly, Martin Truex Jr.($9,200 – P26), could end up being the best play of this group. Truex was 9th in single-lap speed and 11th in 10-lap average.

Chase Elliott ($10,300) [ Proj. Ownership:13% ]

Starting Position: 6th

Elliott was fast in practice and is someone I will look to play with Larson in lineups. Similar to Larson, Elliott did not have a great single-lap run (11th), but he did have the 2nd best 10-lap average. Elliott also had the 2nd best 15-lap average and the 3rd fastest 20-lap average.

Other Options: Ryan Blaney ($10,700 – P2): Blaney didn’t have a great practice session and is the most expensive driver in the field. I do think Blaney gets ahead of Briscoe and leads the early portion of this race. Blaney won’t be highly owned at his price and starting position. William Byron ($9,400 – P12): Byron wasn’t fast in practice, but both Larson and Elliott were so I am not worried about Byron. Tyler Reddick ($9,000 – P5): Reddick WAS fast in practice and he has been so close to wins multiple times this season some would say he is due. RCR uses Hendrick engines, so using Reddick with the HMS cars is a good way to be different.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Ricky Stenhouse ($7,100) [ Proj. Ownership: 31% ]

Starting Position: 28th

Stenhouse is a great superspeedway driver and he showed amazing speed in practice on Saturday. In that practice session, nobody put down a faster lap than Stenhouse did and he was also 6th fastest in 10-lap average. Stenhouse is another Chevy that uses Hendrick engines. With the speed he had in practice and the potential to get through the field with the HMS cars makes Stenhouse of my favorite plays in the field on Sunday.

Bubba Wallace ($7,300) [ Proj. Ownership: 19% ]

Starting Position: 19th

Wallace has always been a better superspeedway driver than he has at 1.5-mile tracks. With Atlanta working as a mini-superspeedway, Wallace should perform well on Sunday because of this. Wallace will run with the JGR Toyota’s, if he can link up with them that is. On Saturday in practice, Wallace was a top 20 car in practice.

Brad Keselowski ($8,600) [ Proj. Ownership: 23%]

Starting Position: 24th

Will Brad Keselowski wreck anyone on Sunday? Well, yes he most likely will. Keselowski was showing some decent speed on Saturday, but he was great in superspeedway races so far this season. Keselowski won his duel before the Daytona 500 and ran great at Daytona (while wrecking half the field at that). I view Kes as a top 15 car on Sunday.

Other Options: Austin Cindric ($7,800 – P16), Alex Bowman ($8,800 – P11), Austin Dillon ($7,400 – P17)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)

Harrison Burton ($6,400) P31: Burton has not been great, but he showed speed on Saturday. In practice on Saturday, Burton was fourth in single lap speed and was 16th in 10-lap average.
Erik Jones ($6,900) P23: Jones is having his best season in two years and showed some good speed on Saturday. In practice, Jones was top 15 in single lap speed and was 8th in 5-lap average.
Michael McDowell ($6,600) P29: McDowell is another driver like Burton and Jones, that showed some good speed on Saturday. In reality, all three of these drivers project similarily so I suggest that you use who ever fits your build best.

Cole Custer ($6,300 – P20), Corey Lajoie ($5,300 -P33), and Daniel Suarez ($6,800 – P13) are the next group of three that can be used in this tier. While I like Suarez, you are better off with one of Burton/McDowell/Jones.

Ty Dillon ($6,000 – P18), Noah Gragson ($5,800 – P30), and Chris Buescher ($6,700 – P14) are the last three viable options in this tier. Gragson has the best PD upside, while Buescher has had the most success at superspeedways.

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series from Atlanta 3/19

rmferenc@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop breakdown for Atlanta! I am not going to lie, I have no idea what to expect from this track. If anyone out there in the industry tells you they know how Atlanta will race this weekend they are lying. Nobody really knows what to expect from this track (not even NASCAR and their drivers) after it was completely ripped up and a new track was installed. Speedway motorsports repaved and reconfigured this track after the July 2021 race here. The 1.5 oval was reconfigured to have 28-degree banking from 24 degrees, which is higher than any other 1.5-mile track. The front stretch was widened as well. These changes were done to promote a superspeedway style of racing similar to Daytona and Talladega.

Roster Construction

My suggestion for this weekend will be to play light and build multiple lineups. If you are not an avid NASCAR DFS player, maybe sit this weekend out. There are two schools of thought here, one being that the drivers will race like Daytona and it could turn into a wreck fest where we need to stack the back. The second one is that the drivers will just drive around single file trying not to wreck and maybe push for a win in the late stages of the race.

Roster construction looks to be different than in the Truck Series race. In that race we had a lot of solid PD plays, there are very few in this race. For the Xfinity race, I think we need to build a more balanced lineup.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier ($9K +)

Noah Gragson ($10,700)

Starting Position: 1st

Gragson has been the best driver in this series all season. In four races, Gragson’s lowest finish is 3rd and he is coming off a victory at Phoenix last week. Gragson is on the pole, so of course, there is some risk there, but he has led at last 12 laps in every race this season and led 114 last week.

Landon Cassill ($9,300)

Starting Position: 10th

Cassill has run well for Kauling in his four races this season, outside of California where he wrecked and turned his car into a ball of fire on wheels. Since then, Cassill has finished top 10 in back-to-back races and it appears he is settling in nicely with his new team. This week will be hard to predict, but I see Cassill finishing with another top 10 alongside teammate AJ Allmendinger.

Trevor Bayne ($9,900)

Starting Position: 5th

Bayne was really fast at Phoenix and could have won that race. In two races in the 18 for JGR this season, Bayne has started top 5 and finished top 5. With how fast this car was last week and with the showing Bayne has had in 2022 I expect another top 5 on Saturday.

Other Options: Daniel Hemric ($9,700 – P8), AJ Allmendinger ($10,300 – P7), Ty Gibbs ($10,100 – P4)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Riley Herbst ($8,300)

Starting Position: 24th

I know Herbst hurt a lot of us last week with his wreck early in the race. This was all too common for Herbst in 2021, but such is not the case this season. In four races, that was Herbst’s first wreck on this young season, prior to that wreck Herbst has two top 10s and three top 15s. I am going back to the well with Riley Herbst and the #98 this week.

JJ Yeley ($7,000)

Starting Position: 21st

Yeley is a consistently middle-of-the-pack driver in lower-tier equipment this season. So far in 2022, Yeley has finished anywhere from 13th to 25th. This is the highest his salary has been this season, so there is a lot of risk involved with using Yeley on Saturday but he is a high reward play that will certainly carry very little ownership.

Brett Moffitt ($7,800)

Starting Position: 16th

Moffitt is a driver I rarely play, but I really don’t know why. This season, Moffitt has been a very serviceable driver for DFS purposes. Outside of Daytona where he started 5th and finished 34th after an early wreck, he has been fairly consistent. Moffitt’s best finish came at Las Vegas when he finished 8th and he has back-to-back top 15s.

Other Options: Anthony Alfredo ($8,100 – P27), Sage Karam ($7,100 -P29), Sheldon Creed ($8,900 – P13)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)

Jade Buford ($6,300) – P30: Buford’s DFS status has been done in by his own good qualifying efforts this season. With Buford starting from P30, he will be in play again on Saturday and I expect him to be a mid-20s driver in this race
Tommy Joe Martins ($6,500) – P37: Martins starts 37th on Saturday and will have some of the best PD upside in this race.
Mason Massey ($6,100) – P26: We will need some cheaper value plays on this slate to make our builds work and Massey fits that bill. Massey is a consistent presence in the mid-20’s and that is most likely where he will end up this week again unless there is some attrition and he isn’t involved.
Shane Lee ($5,100) – P35: I’m not the biggest fan of this play, BUT he starts at the back and if it’s a SS wreck fest then we could see a top 15 from Lee
Bayley Currey ($5,300) – P20: I don’t love playing Currey starting this high, but in GPP’s I don’t see him being highly owned. Currey has driven well in 2022 and has three top 20 fnishes.
Kyle Sieg ($6,600) – P31: Sieg has been a surprise DFS darling early on this season. Coming into the race at Phoenix last week, Sieg had three straight finishes of 21st or better. Unfortunately that streak ended when Sieg wrecked at Phoenix, but that just means he can start a new one on Saturday.
Matt Mills ($5,600) – P33: Mills’ numbers would be better, if not for his 36th place finish at Vegas. Prior to that, Mills had back-to-back top 25s.
Josh Williams ($5,400) – P36: See Shane Lee.

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Truck Series from Atlanta 3/19

rmferenc@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

What the drivers are saying…

Roster Construction

For this race, I think we take a hybrid stack-the-back approach. I don’t think you’ll need to select six drivers starting in the 30s, but I think the best bet would be to take 3-4 drivers starting towards the back, look for 1 potential race dominator and fill out the rest with whoever best fits the salary you have remaining. I’m sorry I can’t be more precise and give better advice, but if I did give out firm advice it would be me lying to you and that’s not what I do. I want those of you who read my articles to be successful and I am not just looking for clicks.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier ($9K +)

Ross Chastain ($10,700)

Starting Position: 36th

Chastain is back in the Truck Series this weekend in the Niece Motorsports #41. Will Chastain be chalky? Probably. Will he be worth ignoring that fact? Yes. Chastain has had a great season in the Cup Series so far and he should run well here on Saturday. This is a pay-up spot that can’t really hurt you with Chastain starting dead last and I view Chastain as a core play on this slate.

Zane Smith ($9,600)

Starting Position: 25th

Zane Smith has two top 2 finishes this season and he gets a $600 price decrease this week. Smith starts 25th and potentially has the chance to be the best play on this slate. I will have plenty of exposure to the 38 truck this week.

John Hunter Nemechek ($11,100)

Starting Position: 12th

Nemechek has wrecked in both truck races this season so there is potential that people shy away, especially with there being a few drivers in this tier worth using on Saturday. With Chastain most likely carrying the highest ownership, Nemechek could be significantly lower owned than he usually is.

Other Options: Ben Rhodes ($10,000 – P15), Ryan Preece ($10,200 – P11)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K-$8.9K)

Jordan Anderson ($7,600)

Starting Position: 33rd

Anderson will be the mid-tier chalk play on Saturday but this time I am ok if you choose to fade him. I will have exposure to Anderson in my builds because I am prioritizing the top tier in this race. Anderson fits perfectly in a Chastain/Smith/JNH build with two value plays.

Matt Crafton ($8,300)

Starting Position: 3rd

With this race being so unpredictable, it might not be a bad a idea to take a chance on a driver who could lead laps early in GPP’s. Crafton is a veteran driver, one of the few in the field, who will be best equipped to handle this track as the rest of the field learns how it races. With Smith and Friesen starting in front of him, Crafton could easily get out in front early and lead some laps.

Hailie Deegan ($7,100)

Starting Position: 27th

Deegan is a driver similar to Anderson where as she might be semi-chalky and I will not argue if you fade her but she also fits perfectly in three top tier lineups. Deegan started out the season well in Daytona with a 17th place finish, but she wrecked in Las Vegas and came home 34th. The 17th place finish Deegan earned in Daytona is more like where I think she will run all season and a top 20 is what I expect on Saturday.

Other Options: Corey Heim ($8,500 – P19th), Chase Purdy ($7,200 -P20), Derek Kraus ($7,500 – P18)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)

Jesse Little ($5,300) – P34: Little was 6th at Daytona, but I do not expect that type of finish on Saturday. Realistically a top 30 is more likely but he will still make value if he does that.
Kris Wright ($5,400) – P21: Wright is a riskier play, but he has finished top 20 in both races this season. I can see that happening again on Saturday.
Brennan Poole ($6,400) – P35: Poole doesn’t offer much upside, and is riskier than Little even though he start one spot behind him. But if this is a wreck fest, than Poole could be a top 10 truck. Either way, if you have the salary and want to stack the back Poole is a good play.
Jack Wood ($6,900) – P22: If this ends up being a drafting race then Wood has a chance at a solid day. Wood is in a GMS truck which means he is teammates with some of the top drivers in the field. Wood could pull a top 10 with his teammates.
Timmy Hill ($6,100) – P23: Timmy Hill is someone we NEVER roster in the Cup Series, but in the Truck Series it’s a completely different situation. Hill has finished top 20 in both races this season and his truck is usually one of the better ones in the field. Hill is experienced enough to navigate the field and if this is a drafting race he is smart enough to avoid the potential big ones.
Matt Jaskol ($5,000) – P31: Jaskol is the cheapest driver in the field and starts near the back. At Las Vegas, Jaskol drove this truck to a 22nd place finish and a top 25 is not out of the question.

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Premium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series from Phoenix 3/13

rmferenc@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

This week we get our first “short track” of the season which means we have a plethora of dominator points on the table on Sunday. Sunday’s race has 312 laps which convert into 218.4 dominator points. At this race last season, Joey Logano led 143 laps but he would finish second to Martin Truex Jr. who led just 64 laps on his way to victory. Last fall at the Championship race it was more balanced with three drivers leading at least 72 laps and all three would finish in the top 5.

Phoenix has been dominated by two teams over the last few seasons. In the last seven races, six of them have been won by either Hendrick or Joe Gibbs cars including the last three. Logano winning in March of 2020 is the only outlier in this stretch, but we do have a Penske car on the pole on Sunday in Ryan Blaney so maybe this streak can be snapped. We have had six different winners in the last six races at Phoenix and if that trend is to continue on Sunday I could see one of Blaney, William Byron, or Tyler Reddick going to victory lane on Sunday.

Roster construction

Last season at this race, eight of the top ten in DKFP started inside the top 10. Looking back at the optimal lineups at that race none of the top 5 scoring lineups had more than two value tier plays so we are looking at a more balanced approach. I think we can implement that same lineup building style on Sunday, there is even enough value in the lower-priced top tier and mid-tier that building lineups with one value play is totally feasible.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators) ($9K +)

Kevin Harvick ($9,100) [Proj. Ownership: 31%]

Starting Position: 16th

Harvick has been one of the most dominant drivers in the history of Phoenix Raceway. Since 2012 (20 races), Harvick has had 19 top tens. Yes, you read that correctly, Kevin Harvick has finished in the top 10 nineteen of his last twenty races at Phoenix. Harvick also has 14 top 5’s and seven victories. Harvick wasn’t great in practice posting just the 24th best single lap, but during the long runs, he had top 10 speed and I expect a 20th top 10 in 21 races on Sunday.

Martin Truex Jr. ($9,800) [Proj. Ownership: 29%]

Starting Position: 20th

Truex wasn’t fast in practice, but I am not worried about his lack of speed. Phoenix is one of MTJ’s better tracks with two straight top 2 finishes and five top 10’s in his last seven here. In the last six races here, Truex has an average finish of 8.8 and is averaging 32.2 fastest laps and 24.5 laps led. On Sunday I view Truex as a top 10 car with top 5 upside.

Kyle Larson ($11,800) [Proj. Ownership: 24%]

Starting Position: 7th (will start at the rear)

Larson had the best car in practice on Saturday and I don’t have any worries about him having to start at the back. In 10 lap average Larson was 3rd fastest and in 15, 20, and 25 laps he was tops. Larson led 107 laps and won at Phoenix last fall en route to winning the Cup Series Championship. Since 2018, Larson has a 4.2 average finish which is the best in the series during this time and has not finished below 7th in any race.

Ryan Blaney ($9,600) [Proj. Ownership: 27%]

Starting Position: 1st

Blaney was another car that was incredibly fast in practice and it’s no surprise he is on the pole for Sunday. Blaney was a big letdown last Sunday, but at no fault of his own, he was taken out by the wreck starter himself, Brad Keselowski. I don’t expect Blaney to be caught up in any wreck on Sunday. In practice on Saturday, Blaney was 2nd fastest in EVERY category, trailing only Larson in averages and Austin Cindric in single lap speed.

Other Options: Joey Logano ($10,400 – P10) – Logano has to be considered a favorite on Sunday because of his track history here. Chase Elliott ($10,700 – P19) – Elliott was not one of the fast cars in practice, but that isn’t a worry, Elliott loves Phoenix and will be a top 10 car on Sunday. William Byron ($9,400 – P3) – Byron had the fastest 10 lap average and was top five in single lap speed. Kyle Busch ($11,200 – P11) – Busch is expensive but there is some upside here. He won’t be starting dead last like last week, but Busch traditionally runs well at Phoenix.

Denny Hamlin usually runs well here, but I need to see him finish a race before I can pay $10,100 in salary to roster him. If you think this is the week he turns it around, go for it, but for me, he is a fade.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Ross Chastain ($8,100) [Proj. Ownership: 26%]

Starting Position: 17th

Last week Chastain was the one driver I missed on, but not this week. Trackhouse has been fast and been near or at the front of the field for a good portion of the last two races and Chastain should be a threat to get there again on Sunday. Chastain is an aggressive driver and we have seen that the guys who drive like him have the most success in the Next-Gen car. In practice, Chastain was top 10 in both single lap speed and 10 lap average.

Ricky Stenhouse ($7,000) [Proj. Ownership: 38%]

Starting Position: 36th

Stenhouse had a top 20 car in practice, but then the engine gave out (valve spring) and he was unable to make a qualifying attempt which means he starts dead last. Hendrick was able to give him a new engine to put into this car so we know it will be fast and I think this is a chalk play that you need to eat and enjoy the +20 place differential. I view Stenhouse as a top 15 car with huge upside and little to no downside.

AJ Allmendinger ($7,200) [Proj. Ownership:]

Starting Position: 29th

In his Cup career, Allmendinger has never really run well at Phoenix, but this car is probably the best he’s ever had here. In practice, Allmendinger had a top 10 single lap time and was 16th in 10 lap average. Allmendinger came home 7th in the Xfinity race here while running as high as 2nd and spending 95.7% of the race in the top 15. Now, I know these stats don’t translate but just getting seat time on this track and running as well as he did has to be a confidence boost for Dinger for Sunday’s race.

Other Options: Tyler Reddick ($8,500 – P12) – I love this play for Sunday, the only reason he wasn’t higher in my rankings was because of salary. I think we need the $7K drivers if we want to go three deep on dominators. Brad Keselowski ($8,200 – P18) – While Keselowski has wrecked plenty of drivers this season he has kept his own car pretty clean. Kes has top 10 upside on Sunday. Austin Cindric ($7,700 – P8) – We go from the old driver of the #2 to the new one. Cindric was fast in practice, even producing the fastest single lap time. I view Cindric as a potential top 10 car, but realistically a mid-teens car.

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)

Bubba Walalce ($6,400) – P27: Bubba was much faster in practice than his qualifying postion would lead you to believe (13th in SL and 10 Lap avg). On Sunday expect a mid teens performance out of the 23 team.
Cole Custer ($6,200) – P25: Custer did not have a great run in practice, but I epxect his team, with the help of Harvick, to get this car right and gain some speed as the race progresses.
Harrison Burton ($5,700) – P24: Here we are again with another driver who was great in practice but it did not translate to a good qualifying effort. This typically happens when a car is trimmed out for racing, not qualifying. Burton is a top 15 car on Sunday in my eyes.
Todd Gilliland ($4,900) – P33: I expect some ownership for Gilliland on Sunday, but if you need the savings you will have to eat this chalk. It’s neccissarily good chalk, but he is the only option I am considering in this price range. Gilliland is one of the top Fpts/$ plays on this slate.
Daniel Suarez ($6,600) – P23: Suarez wasn’t fast in practice but we have seen these Trackhouse over perform on the season, so why not Suare again on Sunday.
Justin Haley ($6,000) – P28: Haley should some speed on Saturday in practice and I view the 31 car as a top 20 upside play.

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

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