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NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop Weekend Preview: Darlington 5/6-5/8

Matt Vecchio 3 years ago

written by Matt Vecchio

Welcome to the first-ever NASCAR DFS Pit Stop weekend preview edition! This week all three series head to “The Lady in Black”, Darlington Raceway! This is one of the coolest weekends on the schedule each season as it is throwback weekend. For long-time fans of the sport, we get to see old paint schemes that we haven’t seen in years, decades even, back on the track in an updated form. Some schemes are only a few years old, but some date all the way back to 1959 with the two Petty GMS Chevy’s in the Cup Series.

Darlington is one of the more difficult tracks on the circuit and is not typically a place you see young, inexperienced drivers succeed here. Darlington’s difficult nature stems from its egg shape, which was because of a logistical problem as the track was being built 73 years ago in 1949. The shape of the track is not the only challenge. Darlington was built for speeds topping out at 95 mph. Today speeds continually exceed 200-mph at the end of each straightaway. Another difficulty is that the track is narrow, with the fastest groove being the top. Drivers who run this groove exceptionally well include Noah Gragson and Tyler Reddick. Drivers need to pay more attention to the track than to their competition and try to avoid earning the Darlington “stripe”. Many drivers have said this is the only track where you need to race the track, not the other drivers.

NASCAR DFS: Truck Series

Laps: 147 (102.9 dominator points)

This race was dominated by John Hunter Nemechek but he came home second when the checkers waved. Darlington is not a track that is for the weak and inexperienced like I mentioned. In the last race here in September 2021, Only one driver starting outside the top 30 finished in the top 10 and the remaining nine top 10 finishers started 13th or better. Going deeper, only 2 drivers started worse than 30th and finished in the top 20. Needless to say, we aren’t looking to play the place differential game here, instead we want to look for drivers who can lead laps and finish in the top 10.

Looking at the optimal lineup from the last race here, we had five our six drivers starting 29th or better, including winner Sheldon Creed who won from the pole, Nemechek, and Austin Wayne Self who started from P16. Depending on how qualifying shakes out, we could be seeing a similar lineup build.

NASCAR DFS: Xfinity Series

Laps: 147 (102.9 Dominator points)

This week we have two Cup Series ringers joining the field on Saturday in Chase Elliott and Tyler Reddick. Elliott will be in the JRM #88 on Saturday and should be the class of the field and is the highest priced driver, but not so high where he can’t make value. As for Reddick, he will be in the Big Machine Vodka #48 so his equipment is not as superior as Elliott’s.

Last season in the fall Darlington race we had four drivers starting 15th or worse finish in the top 10, a contrast to what we saw in the Truck Series. Last weeks winner, Josh Berry, had a great run in his first Darlington race last spring when he finished 2nd, led 8 laps, and had an average running position of 8.4. I think Berry should once again be a factor in this race and being priced under $10K makes him an easy to fit play as well.

Looking back at the Fall race here, the optimal linep for that race had FOUR drivers starting 22nd or worse. I am not saying that is necessarily the best build, but if we get drivers like Reddick or John Hunter Nemechek starting in the 20’s we might need to take that same approach. One other driver who ran exceptionally, and surprisingly, well last season here is Alex Labbe. In two races at Darlington last year, Labbe averaged a 10th place finish (top 10 in both races), had an average place differential of +12.5 (best among drivers running both races), and averaged 46.5 DKFP per race.

NASCAR DFS: Cup Series

Laps: 293 (205.1 Dominator Points)

Last fall we had two drivers absolutely dominate this race, Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin. These two drivers led a combined 302 laps of 367 and were necessary if you wanted a takedown. Now, we only have 293, but if we have another race with two drivers leading over 100 laps it will be the same. Chris Buescher was one of only five drivers to finish top 10 in both races here last season so he will be another driver we need to give a hard look at on Sunday as well.

Over the previous two seasons here at Darlington, both Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. have been the best of the best. They have combined to win three of the four races and have each finished top 10 in three of the four as well. Hamlin actually has three top 5’s in that span and two for MTJ. Truex and Hamlin rank 1-2 in DKFP per race in the last four (among drivers who ran all four races). Kevin Harvick is the only driver in the last two seasons to have a top 10 in all four races. Harvick could end up being a chalk play at $8,800 on DK this weekend, depending on how he qualifies.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022. Check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Dover 5/1

rmferenc@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome back to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for Sunday’s race from The Monster Mile, Dover Motor Speedway. I’m not gonna lie, Dover can produce some of the most boring races in NASCAR because of how hard it is to pass at this track. On the other hand, we can get a race as we had in the Xfinity Series where there was some late-race excitement and pit strategy that led to a great finish.

Looking over the practice and qualifying info it appears that once again the four cars from Hendrick Motorsports will dominate this race. Last season they finished in the top four spots, lead 382 of 400 laps, and were the top four highest-scoring drivers on DraftKings. Alex Bowman (winner) was the only one of the four to start outside the top 10 in that race. We have that same scenario with William Byron starting P33 on Sunday while his three teammates start 3rd, 4th, and 6th.

I know this is a different car, but I think Dover is a track where experience matters no matter the vehicle and that is what will win on Sunday.

Roster construction

Sunday’s race is 400 laps which means we have 280 dominator points on DraftKings and those points will go a long way to getting a takedown. Five of the top ten DKFP drivers started in the top 10 last season and six in the top 16. Chasing place differential in this race is not the best option in this race instead, we want to pinpoint dominators and finishing position. Of course, you can grab one or two drivers who will be top 10 cars who start near the back, but you should look to pair them with drivers starting near the front.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators) ($9K +)

Kyle Larson ($11,800)

Starting Position: 3rd

Kyle Larson is at the top of the charts in pretty much every single category when it comes to Dover over the past few seasons. In his last three races at Dover, Larson has led an average of 139 laps, run 68 fastest laps, averages 110.7 DKFP, and 95.2 FDFP per race (all are series best). Larson also has an average finish of 2nd, an average running position of 2.9, and finished top 3 in all three races. In practice on Saturday Larson was top 5 in 5,10,15, and 20 lap averages. I think you know where I am going with this, play Larson on Sunday. I know the price is sky high, but the return could be huge.

William Byron ($11,000)

Starting Position: 33rd

Byron had some bad luck on Saturday and crashed right at the beginning of practice and in turn, will be starting at the rear of the field. I am not worried about this in the least about the 24 car on Sunday though. We saw Kyle Busch have a great race in a backup car at Vegas earlier this season and Byron’s team always brings fast cars. Byron has back-to-back 4th place finishes at Dover and should be a contender for a third straight top 5 finish. At Dover last season we saw Byron’s teammate, Chase Elliot, start at the back and finish third. Everything points to Byron being just fine on Sunday and while he will be uber chalk, it’s similar to the Ryan Sieg chalk we had to just eat on Saturday to cash.

Chase Elliott ($11,300)

Starting Position: 4th

I know it may look like it, but I am not just listing all the Hendrick drivers. They just happen to be the best options in this race and while it doesn’t seem feasible, you can roster all three $11K drivers in this race. If you remove his wreck in 2020 and engine failure in 2019, Elliott only has one finish outside the top 5 in his 9 other starts at Dover. In practice on Saturday, Elliott’s car improved over the session as he was the top driver in 15 and 20 lap average speed.

Kyle Busch ($9,100)

Starting Position: 10th

If anyone can break up the Hendrick party at the front, it could be Kyle Busch. For whatever reason, Kyle has not run well here in the spring, but Dover is one of his better tracks. Before having a mechanical issue last season, Busch had an average finish of 7.6 in the previous five races. In Saturday’s practice session, Busch was 5th in 10 and 15 lap average and 3rd in 20 lap average. Busch has an outside chance to win this race and is a pretty good bet for a top 5.

Other Options: Martin Truex Jr. ($9,800 – P18), Alex Bowman ($10,100 – P6), Joey Logano ($10,600 – P22), Kevin Harvick ($9,300 – P11)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Austin Cindric ($7,300)

Starting Position: 12th

You all probably expected to see Tyler Reddick in this position, and he will have his moment later. If we want to roster two $11K+ drivers, we need a cheaper mid-tier option, enter Austin Cindric. In his rookie season, Cindric has been very up and down but he does have four top 20 finishes in his last five races. This will be Cindrics first Cup Series Dover race, but in the Xfinity Series, he was outstanding. Cindric had four straight top 3 finishes including a victory in his last Xfinity Series Dover race. In seven races at Dover, Cindric never finished lower than 9th in the Xfinity Series. I know using a risky at this track is risky, but Cindric isn’t a typical rookie.

Tyler Reddick ($8,800)

Starting Position: 26th

If you are playing cash games, then a core of Larson/Byron/Reddick will be the path. In GPP you can still play Reddick and you can use him with Byron if you so desire. Reddick has been so close to winning so many times this season and while that win will come for him I don’t think it will be on Sunday. Reddick had issues in practice which also explains his poor qualifying effort. I still view Reddick as a top 10 car on Sunday.

Ross Chastain ($8,600)

Starting Position: 7th

It is hard to doubt Chastain in 2022. This team has been dominant pretty much all season, but especially of late. Chastain has a series-best six top 5’s in 2022 to go along with his two victories. Dover is a track where you have to drive hard and physically that is something Ross Chastain does exceptionally well.

Other Options: Christopher Bell ($8,100 – P17), Daniel Suarez ($7,900 – P8), Kurt Busch ($7,500 – P16), Austin Dillon ($7,600 – P24)

Value Tier (Under $7K)

Aric Almirola ($6,600) – P27: Almirola should be a mid-teens driver on Sunday based on his track history. In cash games, Almirola is another safe option to use with the core I mentioned earlier.
Cole Custer ($6,100) – P30: Custer appears to have this track figured out in his young career. In three career races at Dover, Custer finished either 10th or 11th. Custer has been good this season, that is when his car makes it through the race. In ten races, Custer has finished 23rd or better in seven of ten races. His three finishes lower than 23rd were all races when he wrecked or had engine issues.
Erik Jones ($6,800) – P25: Jones is in the same category as Almirola and will most likely be a mid-teens driver on Sunday. In four of the last six races, Jones has finished 14th or better. That is where I see him finishing on Sunday.
Ryan Preece ($5,700) – P15: Preece is in the RWR #15 car this week, but he showed speed that no Rick Ware car has shown in 2022. I believe that Stewart-Haas Racing has had a hand in building this car for Sunday. Preece was top 5 in all speed averages on Saturday and while he had speed he is still super risky. For me, Preece is a great GPP play.
Justin Haley ($5,500) – P14: Haley is another risky driver, but we know what we are getting in this 31 car. Haley has back-to-back top 15’s and has four in his last six races. Haley showed top 10 long-run speed in practice on Saturday.
AJ Allmendinger ($6,200) – P19: Dinger had a great showing on Saturday, and while I don’t expect him to be a top 5 car on Sunday, he could be a top 15 car in attrition is in his favor.
Ty Dillon ($5,900 – P31), Todd Gilliland ($5,400 – P34), and Harrison Burton ($5,000 – P35): All three drivers here have limited upside, but are key pieces to getting our three $11K drivers into lineups. I listed them in order of preference above. None of them are going to blow the doors off and finish top 10, but a top 25 would give you what you need from them.

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022. Check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

Formula 1 DFS Race Week: Imola, Italy April 2022

Warren Kosoy 3 years ago

written by Warren Kosoy

This was a mixed bag of a weekend. It was a sprint race weekend, meaning the starting grid for Sunday was set by the winning positions of the sprint race held on Saturday, not by qualifying like it usually is.

It’s an attempt to shake things up, but I don’t know…I’ll keep my opinions out of it. One thing it does do is limit the teams’ ability to properly tune the race car. So typically, what we see is what we get.

It rained during the Friday sessions of Practice 1 and sprint qualifying so that added another layer of complexity to this weekend. We were gifted a demonstration of each constructor’s capabilities and each driver’s talents. This should make breaking down this race weekend a little more straightforward. For this reason, I changed the format for this race week article with an emphasis on each team more so than price point plays.

Team Breakdowns for Formula 1: DFS Race Week Imola

Ferrari $11,600 and Red Bull Racing $11,00. This is where the battle is. This race should come down to which one of these 4 drivers puts it all together. The Red Bull of Max Verstappen $10,400 and Sergio Perez $9000 are the team to beat this weekend.

The Ferrari’s of Charles LeClerc at $11,000 and Carlos Sainz at $10,000 will be right in the mix, I would do my best to have a share of drivers and constructors in every DraftKings lineup I make.

Merc long shots

If you’re playing multi-lines and want to get different, the Mercs looked off in the speed traps. Mercedes finds itself in no firm position going into race Week 4: Imola, Italy, and can try different strategies that the Red Bull and Ferrari probably would not make.

Mercedes $9000 seems to be set up for long runs. George Russell starts P11, 3 spots in front of his teammate he is also less expensive at $8600. Compared to Lewis Hamilton at $9600, I would err on the side of George.

The rest of the field???

We have no idea how the McLarens $8000 is going to perform on the medium tire. Due to issues overall we have not seen the Mclaren in race pace, and during the final laps of the sprint race, they were falling back on the timesheets. If McLaren has the race pace combined with their overall speed, Lando Norris $8000 and Daniel Ricciardo $7600 make for roster-worthy drivers.

Alpine $6400 performs better on the soft tire. A trend we had seen in Australia. Esteban Ocon, $6400, starting in P16, Imola being an older circuit and has fewer overtake spots, Esteban might find it hard to move up.

Fernando Alonso, $5800 has been experiencing reliability issues and that’s concerning so I wouldn’t go crazy, but he should be strong in the speed runs.

With a good strategy, Alonso could stay in the positions he should gain on Sunday while beating his teammate for maximum points.

Valtteri Bottas, $6800, is in the same boat as the Mclaren’s; we just don’t know how well his long-run race pace is. Too bad Zhou Guanyu is starting in P20, the Alfa Romeo $5200 would make for an intriguing constructor play.

The Hass’ of Kevin Magnussen, $5400 has shown pace on the soft tires. However the Haas is slow in long-run form, so it feels like the Haas was set up more for the sprint race on Saturday.

He and teammate, Mick Schumacher $4400 started on the medium tires during the sprint race and after being beaten in the first half, the medium tire held up and helped the Haas gain starting positions in the top 10, P10, and P8.

The Haas $4600 should be a good low-owned value constructor play.

The Last Guys In

Yuki Tsunoda $4800 might be the sleeper play of the weekend.

Yuki and his newfound long-run pace in the Alpha Tauri, and Yuki’s teammate Pierre Gasly’s $7200 getting into an accident in the sprint race making him start in P17 are all positives in Yuki’s favor.

Yuki’s team in Alpha Tauri, $3800 will be a team I take a few shots with if I need a cheap constructor to fit the top drivers in my DraftKings lineups.

Alex Albon $3600 will be a driver I’ll be heavy on until his price is in the $5000s. He is just better than Nicholas Latifi and should earn the 5 bonus points every week

Aston Martin is a team full of “last guy in” options. The Aston has not shown much this racing season, but with a capable veteran driver like Sebastian Vettel, $3400, and to a lesser degree, Lance Stroll $3200, the Aston can take advantage of strategies and limited overtaking and could find its way into good fantasy scoring positions.

A team I won’t be featuring, but if I need salary savings, the Aston makes for potentially low-owned punt plays

In Conclusion

Should be an interesting weekend, let’s see what kind of impact the sprint race weekend has for the real race this coming Sunday morning. As always thanks for reading, catch me in the discord chat @tcuz86. Best of luck.

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Talladega 4/23

rmferenc@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop breakdown for Talladega! If you are in discord (if you aren’t you are missing out!) then you already saw my preview looking back at previous races here. For those who aren’t, here is a quick synopsis:

Stacking the back can work, but I view it more as a cash-type build in this race. Most of the drivers in the optimal Xfinity Series have come from the mid-teens and twenties. Looking at how qualifying shook out on Friday, I can see a similar path to those lineups being optimal again on Saturday.

Roster Construction

With only 113 laps equaling 79.1 dominator points for this race we are not chasing those points. Of course, we want to get dominator points, but there aren’t enough laps here that those points will make that big of a difference. Like I said, stacking the back is a great cash strategy, but I believe that stacking the mid may be a better build type. Looking at pricing, 2-3 top-tier drivers might be the best path.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier ($9K +)

Noah Gragson ($10,300)

Starting Position: 19th

Just based on my knowledge of the sport I did not think Gragson would be my top driver, but when I looked at how he has fared at Superspeedways I couldn’t go anywhere else. Gragson has run well at this track type, especially Talladega. In six career races on this track, Gragson has five finishes of 11th or better including two top 5’s. With Gragson starting P19, he has the best place differential in this tier.

AJ Allmendinger ($9,700)

Starting Position: 13th

Dinger is the driver I expected to be my number one driver, but number two isn’t bad. In four career races here, Allmendinger has two finishes of 7th or better, but also has two finishes of 24th or worse. Allmendinger has been solid so far in 2022 and if he can navigate through the potential carnage like he has many times before he should be in contention for the win. We know Kaulig has been dominant at Superspeedways and if they can get together they will be touch to pass let alone beat.

Justin Allgaier ($9,500)

Starting Position: 11th

Allgaier is the old(er), wily veteran in this race and should be one of the top considerations at low ownership on Saturday. Before he had a string of bad luck from 2019-21 where he wrecked three times in four races, Allgaier had six straight finishes of 8th or better. Last fall here Allgaier got back on track with a third-place finish after starting on the pole. Allgaier clearly knows how to make his way through these races and if he can do it again a top 5 could be in the cars.

Brandon Jones ($9,000)

Starting Position: 15th

Jones is coming off his first win in 2022 and is at a track he has enjoyed some minimal success at in his Xfinity Series career. In eight career races here at Talladega, Jones has only wrecked twice. If you remove those two 37th place finishes, Jones has an average finish of 10th in the remaining 6 races including three top 5’s. Jones got off to a slow start this season, but he has four top 10s in the last six races and has finished no worse than 18th in any of those races.

Other Options Josh Berry ($10,100 – P16), Ty Gibbs ($10,500 – P3), Sam Mayer ($9,200 – P14), Daniel Hemric ($9,900 – P5)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Jeb Burton ($8,400)

Starting Position: 22nd

Jeb Burton has one career victory and it came here at Talladega, yes it was rain-shortened, but a win is a win. In four career Talladega races, Burton has three top 10s so that win was not a fluke. Now, much of his success came in a Kaulig Chevy, but now Burton is in the #27 Our Motorsports Chevy. While that is somewhat of a downgrade in equipment, Burton has only two finishes outside the top 20 this season including three top 15s in his last five races.

Landon Cassill ($8,800)

Starting Position: 6th

Cassill has historically run well here with three finishes of 11th or better in much lesser equipment. In 2022, Cassill signed with Kaulig and he is in the car that Jeb Burton vacated. There is an outside chance that Cassill wins this race and I can all but guarantee that he will come in somewhere in the teens in ownership as well. Cassill is by no means safe and should only be used in GPP’s.

Alex Labbe ($7,000)

Starting Position: 21st

Labbe is in that sweet spot where he won’t be high owned, but also not super low owned. If you are in discord then you already saw that Labbe was in two of the previous four optimal lineups for this track. Labbe has been consistent at Talladega with four straight finishes of 21st or better including two top 10s.

Other Options: Riley Herbst ($8,500 P20), Myatt Snider ($7,900 – P31): Great cash play, Brandon Brown ($7,300 – P17)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)

Jeremy Clements ($6,900) – P34
JJ Yeley ($6,500) – P28
Ryan Ellis ($5,400) – P38
David Starr ($6,000) – P35
Gray Gaulding ($4,600) – P33
Joey Gase ($5,900) – P36
Kyle Sieg ($6,600) – P37
Chandler Smith ($6,800) – P30
Shane Lee ($5,500) – P32

Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Premium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Bristol (Dirt) 4/17

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

Happy Easter and welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop breakdown for the Cup Series Bristol Dirt race! I’m just going to come out and say it, these races suck. I know I am in the minority with that statement but it’s how I feel. I have never watched REAL dirt racing so it is not something I am accustomed to and it is not something I want in NASCAR. These vehicles are meant to drive on paved roads, not dirt especially manufactured dirt tracks. These races are not overly enjoyable for me to watch, but also they are next to impossible to predict for DFS and betting purposes as well.

2021 Lookback

Looking back over the 2021 version of the Bristol Dirt race we see that it is similar to how the truck races played out in 2021. Joey Logano led the second-most laps (61) on his way to winning the inaugural race. Logano was one of only 5 drivers to lead a lap in that race. Only 31 cars of the 39 that started this race finished the race and only 19 of those cars finished on the lead lap. Martin Truex Jr. led the most laps in that race (126) but finished as the last car on the lead lap.

Practice:

We had two practice sessions on Friday afternoon, so the teams have a good idea of what their cars can do. Also, the drivers got a feel for the track and how the car will respond. Kyle Larson is one driver who took what they learned in the first practice and worked on their car and were much happier after Happy Hour.

Roster construction

On Sunday night we have 250 laps of “dirt track” racing so that means we have 175 dominator points available. As I mentioned earlier, we saw two drivers dominate this race in 2021 and we saw the same thing happen Saturday night in the truck race. It’ll be important to get the two dominators right when building for Sunday because of this. There are a good group of drivers in the mid and value tiers so this seems like a race where building balanced lineups is the way to go.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators) ($9K +)

Kyle Larson ($11,200) [ Proj. Ownership %: 33%]

Starting Position: 5th

Larson is the best of the best when it comes to dirt racing and he should be considered the favorite on Sunday night. Like I said in the open, Larson’s team worked on his car after the first practice on Friday and gave him a great car. Larson was tops in 20 and 25 lap average and was top five in 5, 10, and 15 lap average in final practice. In his heat, Larson started 6th and finished 3rd. Larson should push Christopher Bell for the early lead on Sunday night and is capable of dominating this race from beginning to end.

Tyler Reddick ($9,200) [ Proj. Ownership %: 41%]

Starting Position: 3rd

Reddick is another one of the top dirt racers in this race. In his heat race on Saturday, Reddick won and led 11 of 15 laps. Looking back at Friday’s practices, Reddick was atop the leaderboard in 5, 10, and 15 lap average. With how well Reddick has run in 2022 combined with his dirt racing prowess I view Reddick as a top 5 car with the potential to get his first career Cup Series win.

Christopher Bell ($10,800) [ Proj. Ownership %: 28%]

Starting Position: 2nd

Bell, like Larson and Reddick, is a first-class dirt racer and should be a threat to win this race as well. In his heat on Saturday, Bell led 6 laps on his way to victory after starting 5th. In practice on Friday, Bell was top five in both 5 and 10 lap average but he did dip after that. I am not worried about his car falling off after 10 laps and view Bell as a top 5 car on Sunday. Another positive for Bell is that he was helping spot youngster Buddy Kofoid in the Truck Series race so it’s safe to assume he gained some knowledge watching that race happen live and hearing how the track was running throughout the race.

Chase Briscoe ($9,800) [ Proj. Ownership %: 16%]

Starting Position: 4th

You are probably noticing a trend, the top plays are all starting upfront. Outside of Cole Custer starting from the pole, all the drivers starting inside the top 5 are great plays, including Briscoe. Like the previous three drivers, Briscoe is an accomplished dirt racer both in and out of NASCAR. Briscoe has a win (2018) in the Truck Series on dirt and has an average finish of 3.6 in his final three truck races on dirt. Aside from his great record on dirt, Briscoe has been having a career year with an average finish of 9th (removing COTA) and finished 3rd in his heat on Saturday.

William Byron ($10,000) [ Proj. Ownership %: 21%]

Starting Position: 19th

So we already broke down the dirt “experts” starting up front, and now we have a great place differential play in William Byron. Byron is the only multi-race winner in 2022 thus far and I am not predicting him to win this race, but a top 10 is definitely in reach. Rudy Fugle, Byron’s crew chief, has a dirt racing background so that gives Byron a boost. Last season at Bristol dirt, Byron had an average running position of 4.9, finished 2nd in the first stage, and came home 6th at the end of the day.

Other Options: Joey Logano ($10,600 – P10), Ryan Blaney ($9,400 – P25), Chase Elliott ($10,300 – P9), Martin Truex Jr. ($9,600 – P30)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,700) [ Proj. Ownership %: 21%]

Starting Position: 16th

Stenhouse has not been great or even good for that matter in 2022, but dirt is the great equalizer. This weekend Stenhouse has had a good car. In final practice on Friday, Stenhouse was only behind Reddick in 5 and 10 lap average. His car did fall off a little as the practice session went on, but he did rebound to finish with the 13th best 30 lap average. Last season at this race Stenhouse finished 2nd after running a smart, clean race. As a World of Outlaws team owner and another dirt racing expert, I expect Stenhouse to pull out a top 5 this year on the dirt.

Austin Dillon ($7,400)[ Proj. Ownership %: 15%]

Starting Position: 12th

Austin Dillon is having a great 2022 so far and is coming off a third-place finish in Martinsville, his third straight top 10. This weekend, Dillon has been fast ranking in the top 10 in all speed segments in happy hour outside of 5 lap average where he was 12th. In his heat, Austin started 8th but climbed up to 5th at the end. Dillon is an exceptional dirt racer who had some bad luck at this race last season.

Alex Bowman ($8,900) [ Proj. Ownership %: 11%]

Starting Position: 8th

Bowman had a top 5 car at this race last season, but he had issues under the hood and ended up 22nd. In 2022, Bowman has been running great race after great race. This season since Auto Club, Bowman has an average finish of 7.8 which ranks second-best during that stretch. Bowman was third in his heat race on Saturday and had top ten speed in 15 and 20 lap average in Friday’s final practice.

Higher Owned Plays:

All drivers listed above are the low-owned plays to pair with some of the higher owned drivers in the top tier. There are a good amount higher projected owned drivers who are great plays in this tier as well. All four drivers listed below are projected at 25% or higher but they are safer, place differential plays.

Ross Chastain ($8,500) – P33
Denny Hamlin ($8,700) – P34
Daniel Suarez ($8,300) – P21
Kevin Harvick ($8,100) – P32

Value Tier (Under $7K)

Todd Gilliland ($5,400) – P23: Gilliland has been the best car in this tier, but because of this and his low price he will be super chalky. Gilliland projects around 30% ownership with the next highest driver being Aric Almirola at 16%. I do like Gilliland this week, but for GPP’s you can pass on him and look elsewhere.
Michael McDowell ($6,400) – P17: McDowell is the anti-Gilliland this week. He was faster in happy hour, but not as fast as Gilliland, and is a thousand dollars more. One major difference is the projected ownership, McDowell only projects at 12%. If you are going with some of the lower-owned mid-tier options in SE tournaments, go, Gilliland, if not then look to McDowell.
Justin Haley ($5,600) – P6: I know Haley is scary starting from P6, but he has been fast. Haley won his heat from 2nd leading all 15 laps and in happy hour his car got better as he ran laps. Haley was top 10 in 25 and 30 lap average.
Aric Almirola ($6,800) – P31: Almirola has had a fast car all weekend, which is why he comes in as the projected second highest owned driver in this tier. Almirola is the safer play in the high $6K salary range over McDowell at not much higher ownership.
Ty Dillon ($6,200) – P7: Ty Dillon, much like his brother, is a great dirt track racer and it has shown all weekend. Dillon is similar to Haley where his starting position will scare people off which is why he projects at 5% ownership.
Josh Williams ($4,900) – P36: Williams starts dead last and his car has not been that good. All that being said, Williams is a veteran driver who, with attrition, could pull a top 30.
Noah Gragson ($5,300) – P28: Gragson is the #16 for Kaulig this weekend and his car has been faster than expected. In happy hour on Friday, Gragson was top 20 in all speed segments. I view Gragson as a top 25 car with mid-teens upside with attrition.

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022. Check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Truck Series Bristol (dirt) 4/16

rmferenc@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop breakdown for the Truck Series Bristol Dirt race! I’m just going to come out and say it, these races suck. I know I am in the minority with that statement but it’s how I feel. I have never watched REAL dirt racing so it is not something I am accustomed to and it is not something I want in NASCAR. These vehicles are meant to drive on paved roads, not dirt especially manufactured dirt tracks. These races are not overly enjoyable for me to watch, but also they are next to impossible to predict for DFS and betting purposes as well.

Last season in two Truck Series races on dirt we had a combined 22 trucks fail to finish races because of crashing or electrical issues. Between the two races, they averaged only 24 trucks finishing on the lead lap and had a combined 26 cautions for 136 laps run under caution. At Knoxville in particular it was a nightmare of a race. What was supposed to be a 150-lap race turned into 179 laps and 80 of those laps were run under caution. Looking back at this race last season, Martin Truex Jr. dominated leading 105 of 150 laps on his way to victory lane. Truex is not in this race, but there are plenty of other Cup drivers trying their hand at this race in 2022.

Roster Construction

Saturday’s race has 150 laps so that means we have 105 dominator points available and I will be leaning into a 2 dominator type build. There are two trucks that looked to be the class of the field in the heat races and I will get into them soon. Like I said a two dominator build is probably the best way to build and then look at some good value place differential plays. There were a couple of trucks that were good in practice on Friday and are starting towards the back.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier ($9K +)

Joey Logano ($10,900)

Starting Position: 1st

Logano has the potential to lead over 100 laps and win this race making him my favorite play on Saturday. In his qualifying heats, Logano looked impressive and he will be hard to pass. Logano won the Cup Series race here last season and is the favorite to win in my book. I know there is a chance Logano garners high ownership, but if he leads the bulk of this race and wins, you probably won’t have a shot at a takedown without him.

Ben Rhodes ($9,500)

Starting Position: 2nd

If there is a driver who could take down Logano, it’s Ben Rhodes. After watching how well Rhodes ran in the qualifying heats, I have to consider him one of the favorites to dominate this race as well. Rhodes led only three laps in 2021 here on the dirt at Bristol, but he came home 2nd so he is no stranger to running well here. If Logano is the chalkier play in this group, Rhodes could be considered the cheaper, lower-owned pivot, but I actually like the idea of playing them together.

Stewart Friesen ($10,400)

Starting Position: 3rd

I promise I am not just listing the drivers in starting position order. Friesen is probably the most experienced dirt driver in this field, at least of the NASCAR regulars. Last season in this race Friesen finished 12th but does own three top-five finishes in 6 total races including a victory at Eldora. Friesen was fastest in first practice on Friday and ran exceptionally well in his heat. If you want to fade Logano, I think Friesen is the real pivot in this $10K+ price range.

Other Options: Buddy Kofoid ($9,300 – P32): Dirt track expert in the KBM 51. He was fast in practice and should be a good PD play. Chase Elliott ($10,700 – P7): I expect Elliott will carry some high ownership on Saturday night, but he could be worth it with his upside here. Grant Enfinger ($9,800 – P16) ): Enfinger finished 6th here in 2021 and has 5 top 10’s in 5 career dirt races with an average finish of 3.6. Enfinger could be a sneaky PD top 5 pick on Saturday. Chandler Smith ($9,700 – P5): Smith was another truck that was fast throughout the practice sessions and was 3rd overall in 10-lap average.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K-$8.9K)

Matt Crafton ($8,900)

Starting Position: 14th

Crafton is another driver who excels on dirt. In his career in the Truck Series, Crafton has eight top 10’s in nine career races including a win and an average finish of 7.9. With how well Crafton and the 88 ran in practice coupled with his experience on dirt he could be an extremely low-owned play that gets you to the top. In builds where I go with two top-tier drivers, I will use Crafton as a pseudo-top-tier play.

Kaz Grala ($7,900)

Starting Position: 25th

Grala’s truck wasn’t great in single-lap speed, but he did improve as the practice sessions went on Friday. I like the potential upside with Grala because of how his truck improved throughout the sessions. In his qualifying heat, this same principle held true as he was coming for the leaders as his heat went along, but Grala just ran out of laps to get a top 3.

Derek Kraus ($7,600)

Starting Position: 15th

Kraus did not run well at Bristol on the dirt in 2021, but he did have a great run and a top 5 finish at Knoxville later in the year. In practice on Friday, Kraus was a top 15 car in almost all categories and if he can avoid the potential carnage, he could finish top 10.

Other Options: Christian Eckes ($8,400 – P19), Mike Marler ($7,100 – P21), Tyler Ankrum ($7,300 – P20), Ty Majeski ($7,700 – P8)

Value Tier (Under $7K)

Tanner Gray ($6,800) – P35
Chase Purdy ($6,500) – P33
Tate Fogleman ($5,200) – P24
Spencer Boyd ($4,800) – P34
Lawless Alan ($5,100) – P31
Kris Wright ($5,800) – P30
Colby Howard ($6,300) – P12
Timmy Hill ($5,900) – P29
Keith McGee ($5,000) – P36

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

Formula 1: Race Week Miami, May 2022

Richard Masana 3 years ago

written by Richard Masana

Welcome to the 5th edition of Formula 1 Race Week: Miami, May 2022. Round 5 of the championship introduces Miami Autodrone to the Formula 1 calendar. This 3.36 mile street circuit winds it’s way around the Hard Rock Stadium, home of the Miami Dolphins.

Miami reminds me of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia where high speed long runs meet slow corners. The Ferrari duo should do well in slow corners, and the Red Bull should get them back in the straights. With an inaugural race anything can happen when the green flag drops Sunday the 8th 3:30pm EST.

Formula 1 DFS: Top Captain Options

Charles Leclerc, Ferrari $17,100. Charles was in the top 2 in all three practice sessions and put himself on the pole to start the race, once again. Miami seems to be a narrow track which should play into Charles gaining maximum DraftKings points by leading laps and a podium finishing position. If you’re playing one lineup or a Single Entry, Charles makes a lot of sense in the Captain position.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull $17,700. Max had an interesting weekend thus far. He started Friday in Free Practice 1 in P3, than followed that up with mechanical issues in FP2. The crew fixed their issue and got Max on the track for FP3 and qualifying. He is set up for long runs and will be featured in my captain spot.

It’s more than possible to play both guys in your lineups utilizing the Cheap 5 points value plays (found later in the article) and dropping down to the mid-priced constructor options, which are not so bad this week.

Low owned captain options

Sergio Perez, Red Bull $15,900. Sergio looked just as competitive as Max in the sister Red Bull. Practing all weekend in the top 3, Sergio will be heavily in the mix for the captain options.

An interesting play this week is Carlos Sainz, Ferrari $15,000. After a tough start to the weekend, crashing in FP1 and getting limited run; Carlos rebounded and qualified in P2. With his recent struggles, he should garner lower ownership and makes for an interesting GPP play.

Formula 1 DFS: Captain options summary

Overall, I would not hesitate to mix and match these top 4 salaried drivers. For DraftKings purposes, keep in mind the 5 points for defeating your teammate as the difference between a 1st place takedown in your tournaments and a 2nd place finish can be as little as 4 points.

Formula 1: DFS Mid Tier options

The mid-tier options are wide open this week. This is where DraftKings scoring strategy comes into play. After 5 weeks of race data, still a small sample size though, there have been fantasy scoring trends; one being: beat your teammate…even better if your select driver finishes in the top 10, and the teammate finished outside that range.

Those 5 points are critical, and if you’re playing multiple lineups this week, I would rotate through the driver options of:

Alpha Tauri

Pierre Gasly $5400 and Yuki Tsunoda $4200. On the Hard compound tires, the Alpha Tauri’s were firmly in play in the top 10. They might opt for a one stop strategy and try to gain track position in the pits. Considering their time on the hards, it could be a strategy that pays off.

Choosing between the two is the really difficult part, but Gasly seems to have the upper hand this weekend. Don’t hesitate to use Alpha Tauri $3800 in the constructor position either.

McLaren

Lando Norris $8600 Lando should get the 5 Deafeat Teammate points this week as he starts 6 positions ahead in P8. The McLaren is set up for a 2 stop stratergy and has not been really impressive in the long runs.

Aston Martin

Sebastian Vettel $3600 and Lance Stroll $3200 The Aston seem to be mimicking Mercedes this weekend, following the same practice strategy all weekend. They will be worthy of roster spots as last man in options for your DraftKings lineups.

The Alfa Romeo of Valtteri Bottas $7400 qualified well, but I have a feeling Valtteri loses out on grid positions during pit rotations.

Formula 1: DFS Cheap 5 points options

Alex Albon $3,400 is always a good cheap 5 points option. Albon has been getting the most out of his Williams, and his teammate really sucks.

Other Options include $9200 Lewis Hamilton and $5800 Fernando Alonso.

Formula 1: DFS Constructor options

Red Bull for $12,000 this weekend. It’s hard to overlook what they can do at P3 and P4, especially in the 2nd half of the race.
Ferrari $11,600. If Sainz and Leclerc can stay in the top 3, the Ferrari makes for a hell of a play.
Mercedes $8400, their race pace always keeps them in the fight.
Alpha Tauri $3800, lets see what that long run pace can do.

Formula 1: Race Week Miami DFS overall strategy

I’m building from the bottom up with weekend in DraftKings. Its tough to outscore the potential 60 points from a constructor finishing with both drivers on the podium. After stressing staying in the midfield with longer run potential (the Alpha Tauris and Astons) Ill be sprinkling in the drivers whom have seriously outscored their teammates (Bottas and Hamilton)

As always I’m excited about another race and am happy to see the hype behind this one. Its been fun watching people like George Lucas, Tom Brady, Michael Jordan, Danica Patrick, freaking Snoop Dogg running around the paddock. If you have questions please feel free to hit me up in discord @tcuz86. Have fun and thanks for reading Formula 1: Race Week Miami May 2022.

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Premium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series from Martinsville 4/9

rmferenc@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Blue Emu Pain Relief 400 from Martinsville Speedway! The Paper Clip as it is otherwise known is a 1/2 mile short track and is the shortest track on the NASCAR circuit. Last season in both races at Martinsville we saw similar outcomes. In both races, we saw two drivers lead over 300 laps but neither driver won the race. Instead, someone who led 9 (Alex Bowman) and 20 (Martin Truex Jr.) won the races.

Denny Hamlin is the one constant in both of the Martinsville races last season leading 379 laps combined. Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney also lead a lot of laps in those races in 2021. Another thing to expect in Saturday’s race is a lot of drivers being a lap down when it finishes. In 2021 only 25 drivers and 18 drivers finished the races on the lead lap.

Roster construction

Based on what we’ve seen at this track previously, rostering two dominators will be key. After deciding on the dominators, finding the right place differential plays will be key. Looking at pricing, a balanced build with 2 drivers from each pricing category is the best path to cashing I believe.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators) ($9K +)

Denny Hamlin ($10,300)

Starting Position: 25th

As you read in the open, Hamlin was dominant here at Martinsville in 2021 and Saturday should be no different. After winning at Richmond last week, Hamlin’s confidence has to be back at a high level. Hamlin starts 25th, so he is a best of both worlds play, I think Hamlin will get to the lead at some point in this 400 lap race and will finish top 5.

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,500)

Starting Position: 20th

Martinsville has to be Truex’s favorite track looking at his recent history here. In his last ten races here, Truex has three wins and seven top 5 finishes. The Joe Gibbs Toyota’s were not really fast in practice, except for Kyle Busch, but I am confident that Truex (and Hamlin) will get to the front and be in contention for the win.

Chase Elliott ($11,200)

Starting Position: 1st

Elliott starts on the pole and should dominate the early part of this race. Over the past three Martinsville races, Elliott has led 525 laps and it’s not out of the question for him to lead 200 laps again on Saturday. In eight races since 2018, Elliott has a win (2020 – Fall), four top 5’s, and six top 10’s. After Hamlin got his first victory last week, I think this week could be Elliott’s time to do the same.

Joey Logano ($9,700)

Starting Position: 14th

Logano was another driver who didn’t show much speed in practice but has a great track history at Martinsville. In his last ten races here, Logano has a win, four top 5’s, and eight top 10’s. Logano has also averaged 64.2 laps led and 27.5 fastest laps during this 10 race stretch as well. Logano has run well in 2022 and should be in contention for the win, or at worst a top 5 on Saturday night.

Other Options: Ryan Blaney ($10,900 – P12), Kyle Larson ($10,600 – P8), Kyle Busch ($10,000 – P11), William Byron ($9,500 – P5), Alex Bowman ($9,300 – P15)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Brad Keselowski ($7,900)

Starting Position: 9th

Keselowski has ruined many of our good days this season, but the RFK Ford’s have shown speed recently and ran well at Richmond last week. In the last ten Martinsville races, Keselowski has the second most average DKFP per race. Keselowski also has three wins, eight top 5’s, and nine top 10’s while averaging 40.1 fastest laps per race.

Chase Briscoe ($8,200)

Starting Position: 19th

Briscoe has only run two Cup Series races at Martinsville and neither of his finishes was great but this season Briscoe has been one of the series’ top drivers. In 2022, Briscoe has four top 15 finishes this season in seven races, including his win at Phoenix. There is another driver who will garner more ownership so I think Briscoe could be a lower owned pivot with top 5 potential, but more likely a top 10 car.

Ross Chastain ($8,800)

Starting Position: 27th

Chastain is the driver I mentioned above who will be the more popular driver in this tier. This is the first time Chastain has come to Martinsville in a competitive car so his past races don’t really hold weight. After a slow start to the season, Chastain has come back strong. In the last five races, Chastain has a win and four top 3 finishes but he did have a rough go at Richmond last week finishing 19th and breaking his top 3 streak, but with his place differential upside this week, Chastain can make value with a top 15.

Other Options: Tyler Reddick ($8,600 – P22), Kevin Harvick ($8,400 – P6), Kurt Busch ($8,000 – P18), Austin Dillon ($7,700 – P23), Erik Jones ($7,100 – P24)

Value Tier (Under $7K)

Ty Dillon ($5,500) – P34: In lesser equipment, Dillon has done well at Martinsville with an average finish of 20.5 in eight career races. This season Dillon has an average finish of 19.2 minus Daytona. I view Dillon as a top 20 upside play for SE or cash.
AJ Allmendinger ($6,600) – P36: Allmendinger had a good run here on Friday night in the Xfinity Series. In tech on Friday, AJ’s cup car failed three times so he wasn’t able to make a qualifying lap and will have to do a pass-through penalty putting him a lap down. Dinger will get back on the lead lap, similar to Haley last week, and be a contender for a top 20.
Daniel Suarez ($6,800) – P30: Suarez is having a resurgence in 2022 with teammate Ross Chastain at Trackhouse racing. In the past, Suarez has not run well here, but this season Suarez has three top 10s and had a 16th place finish last week. I view Suarez as a mid-teens driver on Saturday.
Bubba Wallace ($6,400) – P21: Last fall here, Wallace was running just outside the top 10 but had a tire go down and finished 25th. In that race, Bubba had the 14th best speed ranking and had an average running position of 16.1.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,300) – P28: Martinsville is one of Stenhouse’s better tracks and he has an 18th place average finish here over the last 5 races.
Harrison Burton ($5,600) – P29: Burton has top 20 potential in this race on Saturday. In the last five Cup races, Burton has three finishes of 18th or better.

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Martinsville 4/8

rmferenc@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop breakdown for Martinsville! The Paper Clip as it is otherwise known is a 1/2 mile short track and is the shortest track on the NASCAR circuit. The last time the Xfinity Series was at Martinsville, Noah Gragson dominated on his way to winning that race. Gragson led 153 of 257 laps while nobody else led more than 64. In that race, we saw 10 cautions for incidents, and only 27 cars finish on the lead lap. In the spring race here in 2021 it was a similar race with Josh Berry leading a race-high 95 laps. In that race, we saw 10 cautions for incidents, and only 19 cars finish on the lead lap. Needless to say, Martinsville is a race of attrition and is not easy to predict.

Roster Construction

Friday’s race is 250 laps, which means we have 175 total dominator points available and it will be important to try and collect as many as possible. Like I said in the previous paragraph typically one car dominates this race and it will be key to find that person. Looking at where drivers qualified and how they ran in practice there are a couple of drivers who could be that guy on Friday. As far as building lineups, the way to go appears to be similar to the truck race and build a balanced type of lineup.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier ($9K +)

Ty Gibbs ($11,300)

Starting Position: 1st

Gibbs has been the best driver in the Xfinity Series in 2022 and he was the second-fastest car in practice on Thursday. There isn’t a scenario where I see Gibbs falter on Friday night, other than someone else wrecking him. Gibbs is the top play on this slate and should be the top dominator come the end of the night on Friday.

Noah Gragson ($11,000)

Starting Position: 3rd

Gragson was not a top car in practice but that is not a concern. I mentioned in the open how Gragson dominated the race the last time the series was here. No driver in the Xfinity Series has been in more optimal lineups than Gragson has with five. In seven races this season, Gragson has one win included in his five top 5’s and three top 2 finishes. With how well Gragson has run in 2022 and at Martinsville in the past he is a driver who can dominate this race on Friday.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($9,800)

Starting Position: 30th

Junior is back in the 88 this weekend for his team. This will be Earnhardt’s first-ever Xfinity Series race at Martinsville but he does have 35 Cup Series races here. In those 35 races, Junior has one win, 13 top 5’s, and 18 top 10’s so it’s no wonder why he chose Martinsville to come race this season. In practice on Thursday, the 88 was fast and ran the 7th best single lap time. I view Earnhardt as similar to Byron who starts in the 30s but has a fast car and could push for the win. Realistically, Junior is more likely to get a top 10 and not be a factor for the win, but he has massive upside.

Justin Allgaier ($10,200)

Starting Position: 2nd

If not Gragson or Gibbs, then it could be Allgaier who dominates Friday night. Allgaier has been outstanding in his three races here never finishing lower than 9th. Allgaier has never led a lap at Martinsville, but starting on the outside pole he could get out in front of Gibbs and lead this race for a while.

Other Options: Josh Berry ($10,800 – P10), AJ Allmendinger ($10,500 – P13), Daniel Hemric ($9,500 – P9)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Sam Mayer ($8,900)

Starting Position: 21st

Mayer has traditionally run well at short tracks in his short career. Last fall at Martinsville, Mayer started 11th and finished 4th. Mayer has run four short track races in the Xfinity Series and has two top 5’s and three top 10’s.

Myatt Snider ($7,300)

Starting Position: 19th

In practice on Thursday, Snider had top 5 speed but it didn’t show through in qualifying. Last season Snider finished top 15 in both races here at Martinsville. Looking at his price, the speed he showed, and his history here Snider appears to be one of the top plays in this tier on Friday.

Brett Moffitt ($7,700)

Starting Position: 6th

Moffitt is strictly a GPP play since he is starting from P6. In the past, Moffitt has been successful at Martinsville in both the Xfinity Series and Truck Series. In his first four Truck Series races here, Moffitt finished no lower than 6th and had three finished 2nd or 3rd. In the Xfinity Series, Moffitt has never finished outside the top 20 and has a track-high finish of 12th. In practice on Thursday, Moffitt was 5th fastest.

Other Options: Jeb Burton ($7,800 – P25), Parker Retzlaff ($7,000 – P20), Ryan Truex ($8,400 – P4)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)

David Starr ($5,100) – P35
JJ Yeley ($6,200) – P33
Derek Griffith ($6,600 ) – P36
Matt Mills ($4,900) – P37
Joe Graf Jr. ($5,800) – P24
Ryan Vargas ($5,300) – P34
Kyle Weatherman ($6,000) – P27
Jade Buford ($6,400) – P31

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Truck Series Martinsville 4/7

rmferenc@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop breakdown for Martinsville! The Paper Clip as it is otherwise known is a 1/2 mile short track and is the shortest track on the NASCAR circuit. Unlike at a 1.5-track, it is not easy to pass here which is exemplified by the fact only two drivers led 60 or more laps at this race last season. Most passing is done under caution at this track, and there were a lot of them last time the series was here. Last season we had 12 cautions for accidents at this race but only two trucks did not finish the race.

Roster Construction

With how everything shook out with qualifying or lack thereof, I think you need to prioritize locking in two top-tier drivers. There is a good chance that one driver leads 75-90% of this race (Kyle) and if that happens you will be out in the cold if not rostering him. There are other build types for GPP’s but I think you need William Byron for SE and cash, in fact, I think it’s mandatory in cash you pair him with Kyle. My ideal roster build is a 2-1-3 build for this race. You can do, 2-2-2 but you will be risking a lot on really cheap value pieces that could hurt you in the end.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier ($9K +)

William Byron ($9,800)

Starting Position: 32nd

With no qualifying or practice times to look it we have nothing to gauge this truck on, but at COTA Bowman ran well in this same truck so I have worries about Byron. Byron will be chalky, probably the highest owned driver, but he could actually outscore Busch if he leads laps. Either way, I am not fading Byron in this race.

Grant Enfinger ($10,400)

Starting Position: 12th

Martinsville is one of Enfinger’s better tracks and he should be in for another solid finish on Thursday night. In his last four races here (since 2019), Enfinger has one win (2020), two top 5’s, and three top 10’s. Starting from P12, Enfinger has some of the best PD upside (outside of Byron) in this tier.

Kyle Busch ($15,000)

Starting Position: 2nd

Busch is incredibly expensive and I will not argue a fade on him. But, the last time he ran the truck race here at Martinsville (2019) Busch started on the front row (2nd) and won. In that same race, Busch led 174 laps and racked up over 120 DKFP. I know it’s hard to stomach this price, but I think there is a path to roster him comfortably.

John Hunter Nemechek ($12,000)

Starting Position: 5th

If anyone can unseat Busch here at Martinsville, it would be a car he owns. Nemechek has had issues in three of his last five races here. In the two races he didn’t wreck or have a mechanical issue, Nemechek finished 7th and 1st. I don’t think we can roster Busch and Nemechek together and I do prefer Busch because of the dominator potential, but JHN will be a solid GPP play.

Other Options: Zane Smith ($11,400 – P1), Stewart Friesen ($9,000 – P6)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K-$8.9K)

Johnny Sauter ($7,500)

Starting Position: 36th

Sauter, like Byron, will be massive chalk, but again, it will be hard to avoid him. Based on where he starts, his salary, and his history at Martinsville you can argue that Sauter is the best play in this race. Since 2013 (16 races), Sauter has three wins, eight top 5’s, and twelve top 10’s. I may be 100% on Sauter, and I never do that in NASCAR so that is how high I am on him on Thursday.

Bret Holmes ($7,00)

Starting Position: 35th

Holmes can be used as the lower owned and cheaper pivot off the chalk Sauter if you so desire. Holmes has run once here at Martinsville, a 22nd place finish in 2021. I don’t think Holmes’s upside is as great as Sauter’s but if I do pivot off Sauter in any lineups, it will be to Holmes.

Other Options: Parker Kligerman ($8,200 – P16), Christian Eckes ($8,700 – P7), Tanner Gray (7,600 – P13), Colby Howard ($7,100 – P26)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)

Hailie Deegan ($6,300) – P31
Timmy Hill ($6,100) – P20
Austin Wayne Self ($6,400) – P22
Jesse Little ($5,200) – P25
Jack Wood ($5,800) – P29
Spencer Boyd ($5,000) – P24
Dean Thompson ($5,600) – P28
Blake Lothian ($4,600) – P30

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

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