NASCAR DFS

Welcome to another edition of Formula 1 Race Week: Australian Grand Prix 2023.

It’s race week in Australia! Albert Park is a similar track to Jeddah, the race from last week which means it’s all about speed! With 20 corners, 4 DRS zones, and just a few heavy braking corners, this track is all about balance and a strong front end. Prior to qualifying it has rained all weekend, adding a touch of spice to this weekend’s proceedings. So let’s get to it.

Team Breakdowns

Red Bull

Max Verstappen ($21,000) has looked human this weekend but has been amongst the top 3 drivers in all practice sessions, qualifying on the pole. Max in the Captain spot with Red Bull Racing ($13,300) in the constructor typically makes a ton of sense, but with Sergio Perez starting in P20, you really need him to get into the top 3 to maximize the RBR constructor play. Don’t be afraid to pair Max with a different constructor this weekend. 

For Sergio Perez ($11,400) to make value he has to pass damn near the entire field. Starting from P20 he’s got the machinery to do it, but considering overtakes are pretty difficult here and his struggles overall on the circuit, this might not be the best weekend for him.

Mercedes

The Mercs are strongly in play this weekend. After finishing in the top 5 last race and with both cars qualifying in the 3 top positions, pairing Lewis Hamilton ($8,200) starting in P2 or George Russell ($8,800) P3 with Mercedes ($8,700) in the constructor spot is a good way to get different while maximizing upside in your DK lines. If you’re playing multiple GPP lines, having a few with the Merc drivers in the captain spot could be very lucrative if things break in your favor.

Aston Martin

Once again a top 5 car, with the pace and the opportunity I would treat Aston Martin ($10,300) the same as I do Mercedes, very playable and a good way to get different while not being too far off the board. Fernando Alonso ($10,200) starts P4 with his teammate Lance Stroll ($7000) P6

Ferrari

Total GPP play here. In MME formats having some exposure to Ferrari ($9300) is very sensible. I would not play them in a cash game format or a single entry. The Mercedes has seemed to be better over the weekend and it really does feel as if Ferrari has kept their engine turned down, however, the Ferrari-powered cars (Haas, Alfa Romeo, Ferrari) seem to come alive on Sunday on long runs. Charles Leclerc ($9,400) and Carlos Sainz ($7,800) are fairly priced GPP plays.

Alpine

If I could make a bet for a team at longer odds to win this race I would put my money on the Alpine ($5,500) camp. They need things to fall their way, GPP plays in MME Gasly ($6,400) P9 and Ocon ($6,000) P11. Ocon did get caught out in qualifying so he might have a spot or two he can gain.

Haas

Having finished just outside the points in Jeddah and the similarities between that circuit and Albert Park here in Melbourne, Australia I like the Haas ($3200) to come alive and score well. Hulkenberg ($3000) is min price starting in P10, he might lose a spot or two so he comes with risk, but at that price point, it’s worth the volatility. Kevin Magnussen ($4200) starts in P14 and is a racer I won’t mind getting exposure to.

McLaren

Lando Norris ($5,600) P12 and Oscar Piastri ($5,000) P16 started to show some life as they made an effort to actually run deep into FP2, but then Lando’s McLaren broke down and they looked disappointing again. They are caring speed here in Australia so having one or two of these dudes in your GPPs is alright, but it feels really thin. This is Oscar P’s home race combined with Lando’s car being a gigantic question mark, I would prefer Oscar in his McLaren ($3,800)

Williams

As I mentioned in the opening paragraph this is a track for speed, and the Williams have a ton of it. The Williams($3,000) of Alex Albon ($4,600) starting in P8 is no fluke. He might have overqualified so it comes with risk, but the upside is there. I’m comfortable using Logan Sargent ($3,200), starting P18 especially if I am going to stack Max in the Captain with Red Bull Racing in the constructor spot.

Alpha Tauri

The last drivers into fades, taking Tsunoda ($4,400) P12 over DeVries ($3,600) P15 but not forcing in either, I will be okay ending up with some DeVries if it comes down to it.

Alfa Romeo

The Alfa is a pure race car. They tend to be nowhere on Friday and Saturday, then come to play in the race. I like the savings and neither is a priority like the Alpha Tauri so if I end up there that’s not an issue. Bottas comes in at ($5,400) and Zhou at ($3,800) starting in P19 and P17 respectively.

In Conclusion

Overall you really need Sergio to come from the depth of the field for the RBR constructor play to pay off. Max should dominate this race and should be in a majority of your lineups. Pairing him with a different constructor, I’ll have the majority Mercedes and Aston Martin but mixing and matching makes a ton of sense. Be careful with Sargent, Norris, and Perez as they all had reliability issues throughout the course of the weekend.

If you have any questions or if you’d like to talk strategy @tcuz86 in Discord.

Welcome to another edition of Formula 1 Race Week: Saudi Arabian Grand Prix 2023. I typically write this article by price point but this week there is a lot to break down, and it all matters for our DFS purposes. 

Fair warning I am a broken record in my breakdown stressing one point: this race is chaos. The Jeddah Corniche Street Circuit is one of the longest on the grid, has the most corners, and is very fast. All those factors tend to lead to Safety Cars, red flags, reliability issues, and pure chaos.

With that warning in place…

Team Breakdowns

Alpha Tauri– Nick De Vries $3000 had engine issues in fp3, he ended up only qualifying p18. Yuki Tsunoda $3400 had the same problem last year at this track and his engine decided to give out again before the start of the race. 

I will be fading the Alpha Tauri for the Constructor position, fading De Vries in the flex, and will only have a limited amount of Yuki as a last man in…would rather play K. Mag or L. Sargent around that price point though.

Haas $3100  is very much in play. The team typically qualifies well and fades in the race, however, this circuit has always been kind to them.
With Kevin Magnussen $3200, P13, and Nico Hulkenberg $4000, P10, I like the Haas for value and I wouldn’t be surprised if both cars finish in the points.

Williams $3300 is another strong value. The antithesis of Haas, they tend to qualify poorly and race well. This weekend is no different, Alex Albon $5000 was amongst the top 10 in practice all weekend, then Saturday came… starting in p17, I’d expect Albon to gain positions and make value.  Logan Sargent $3800 having damage and being a rookie, is a pure punt play, if you play him make sure you’re not playing Albon, and don’t go crazy on him.

McLaren $3700 is a full fade. McLaren Mercedes was amongst the slowest cars all weekend. With Lando Norris $6000 being overpriced, his car sucking and having clipped a wall during qualifying, I won’t have any Lando. Oscar Piastri $4800 would be a play due to Lando’s issues, but he’s also overpriced, his car also sucks, and he overqualified. Full fade

I want nothing to do with Valtteri Bottas $6400, Zhou Guanyu $4400, and Alfa Romeo $4300

Alpine $5200 is where things get interesting. It has been a strong car all weekend and was a strong car last weekend too. Esteban Ocon $5800 starts P6 and his teammate Pierre Gasly $5400 P9. With both cars firmly in the top 10, both are strong candidates to maintain position, score well, and return DFS value. Alpine with a double-point finish is a bet I would love to make.

Mercedes $8500, just like Alpine, has been strong all weekend; with this circuit being true to form and being chaotic as all hell, George Russell $7600 finds himself starting P3. He has been a touch better than teammate  Lewis Hamilton, $8400 this weekend, and his Merc should be in contention for a podium finish. George is going to be a volatile play so keep that in mind, on the positive side he’s starting P3, however, Carlos Sainz could get him, Lance Stroll could get him, and Max…oh we’re gonna talk about Max….could also get him. Risky, but a ton of upside and a hell of a value play if it works out. A sprinkle in the captain spot paired with Mercedes makes sense to me, depending on the way the rest of your roster looks of course.

Lewis Hamilton $8400 in P8 should maintain his position in the top 10 +/- a couple of spots. Once again this race tends to be chaotic so having a lineup or two in a GPP is a good way to go this weekend.

Aston Martin $9200 has been the second-best constructor all weekend. Both Lance Stroll $6800 and Fernando Alonso $9600 look like they are up for the task of bringing home a podium finish this weekend. Alonso starts in P2 and is notorious to be hard to overtake. Lance starts P6, putting the Aston in a fantastic spot for double points, and a podium finish if not two. 

Ferrari $10,900 has been a tough nut to crack. Charles Leclerc $10,200 comes into the weekend with a 10-grid penalty. After crossing the qualifying finish line in P2, his penalties were assessed and he will start 12th. He has a great shot of overtaking at least 5 cars before he starts to face stiffer competition. Normally his price would make him unplayable, but with the potential of overtakes and finishing in the points, I like the idea of having a limited amount.

Carlos Sainz $9000 on the other hand is an easier fade. Carlos starts in P4 which is a good spot for him, however, Ferrari seems to be nursing some sort of power unit issue. As I’ve mentioned quite a bit this race tends to be chaotic, so with all drivers and constructors I would tread lightly, considering Carlos’ price tag, I would tread even lighter; you need him to win to be a real value play.

And now for Red Bull $13,100. You could almost hear audible gasps from the fans at the Jeddah Circuit today when the unthinkable happened, Sergio Perez $11,200 putting his Red Bull on the pole….wow, what a shock! I kid of course because the gasps were due to the 2022 World Champ Max Verstappen $14,000 having gearbox issues and failing to get out of the 2nd qualifying session. This is Max’s 2nd gearbox replacement this weekend which puts him in an extremely interesting position for DFS purposes.

You could have zero…as I mentioned so many times, this tends to be a chaotic race, a race of reliability. Last year Did Not Finish due to reliability issues being extremely prevalent up and down the grid, and 4 cars all DNF’ed on the same lap. Add on top of that reliability issues on Friday or Saturday historically tend to pop up again on Sunday, taking the chance on Max not finishing this race is an understandable move.

Or you could go the exact opposite way, the Red Bull is in a class of its own, and playing Max in either the captain or the flex position puts you on the best driver, in the best car, with place differential, winning the race from P15 upside for maximum ceiling on your DFS lineup. His price tag wouldn’t be an issue at all at that point. I would advise if you go that route, play him with Red Bull Racing in the constructor spot to maximize potential upside. You would have to play the riskiest of the drivers to fill your remaining roster spots, but as Matt Damon likes to say “Fortune favors the brave”….that’s 2 articles in a row with that one, I promise I won’t make it 3 weeks in a row.

And last but most certainly not least is the pole sitter for the 2023 Jeddah Corniche Saudi Arabia GP, Sergio Perez $11,200. Sergio’s pole is no fluke as he was on the pole last year and was cruising in P1 till the chaotic nature of this race caught him out of position for a pit stop, pushing him to P4. Sergio fell out of contention due to pure randomness, and I bet he races hard to get that win back. I like him a lot this weekend. He pilots the sister Rocketship, err Red Bull so he has all the potential in the world to dominate this race. There’s tons of value to pair him with Red Bull (or any other constructor) so fitting him into the captain spot or the flex is a good play for DFS.

I have to say it one last time, THIS RACE IS RISKY! Don’t go all in this weekend, but also don’t be afraid to embrace the risk. If you have any questions or if you’d like to talk strategy @tcuz86 in Discord.