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NASCAR DFS

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Martinsville 4/9

DFSGhost 4 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial as well to make sure you are ready and have an understanding of how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Welcome back NASCAR! after a week hiatus (two weeks for the Xfinity Series) I am finally breaking down some racing for you! I never knew I would miss dissecting late run green flag speeds and loop data after only a week, but here I am getting excited to do it again.

This week the Series heads to Martinsville, otherwise known as “The Paperclip”. This is a unique track with next to no banking, it is a very flat short track that isn’t really similar to other tracks, but we can look at both Richmond and Phoenix to get an idea how some teams may run here. This is a Dash 4 Cash race so there are NO Cup Series regulars in this race. We have 250 laps in this race under the lights on Friday night so I will look to have plenty of 2 dominator builds to eat up as many dominator points as possible. Last season was the first time in 14 years that the Xfinity Series ran a race at Martinsville, so we only have that data to go on for track history.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Harrison Burton ($9,300)

Starting Position: 1st

Once again I am going against my own rule of not rostering pole sitters, but at this price and after how Burton dominated this race from the pole last season it’s hard to not make him the top option in this tier. In 2020, Burton led 81 laps here on his way to winning this race. Burton never fell lower than 12th in the running order and had an average running position of 2.7 for this race last season. I really like Burton on Friday night, and there is a decent chance he comes in a low ownership starting from the pole.

Ty Gibbs ($10,500)

Starting Position: 16th

If Burton is your pure dominator for this race, than Ty Gibbs is your place differential dominator play. Gibbs has never raced at Martinsville in a stock car but he has had some success in 2020 and 2021 at Phoenix. In the ARCA Series, Gibbs finished 3rd in 2020 and 1st this season at Phoenix. Not only did he have two top 5’s he dominated these races leading a total of 246 laps in the two races combined. Gibbs is in some of the best equipment in the series and should easily see his way towards the front on Friday night and finish top 5 for the third time in three races this season

Brandon Jones ($9,900)

Starting Position: 24th

We are now 3 for 3 with Joes Gibbs cars in the top tier for this race. Jones is another potential dominator with place differential upside. I don’t think Jones dominates this race over either of the previous two JGR cars I mentioned above, but he can definitely pay off his price tag. Last season at Martinsville, Jones started P7 and came in 9th while never running higher than 5th in that race. Jones has the equipment and the ability to have another top 10, or ever a top 5 on Friday.

All three of Austin Cindric ($11,500 – P6), Noah Gragson ($11,100 – P8), and Justin Allgaier ($10,200 – P2) are in play for me this weekend and could very well push the JGR stable of Toyotas for the win here. My only issue with these three is their price tags. I am not 100% sure they can pay off their prices, especially Gragson with his bad luck this season. If anyone is going to take the top spot and be dominant in this race if should be one of these three drivers.

Other Options (in order of preference): Bretty Moffitt ($9,000 – P27 [could be chalky] Daniel Hemric ($10,800 – P4), Ryan Sieg ($9,600 – P12), AJ Allmendinger ($11,900 – P3 [Large Field GPP ONLY])

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Josh Berry ($8,000)

Starting Position: 29th

Berry is most likely going to be the chalk de jour on Friday night, and with reason. When you can get a driver with 20+ place differential upside at only $8K you have to take advantage of the soft pricing, especially in cash games. If you are playing GPP’s then I am totally on board with fading him.

GPP Pivots off Berry:

Jeb Burton ($7,800) – Burton starts from the 13th position and drove the #8 that Berry is in to a 4th place finish last season here. I don’t think Burton comes near the ownership that Berry will get but offers top 5 upside for a similar price

Brandon Gdovic ($7,500) – Gdovic is the Sam Hunt #26 on Friday night and should be practically unowned. I really like the upside of this car at Martinsville after three straight top 15 finishes. Gdovic finished top 10 in this ride at Daytona. Last season Mason Diaz drove the #26 to a 20th place finish, but I think Gdovic is a better driver and could bring this team their 4th straight top 15 finish.

JJ Yeley ($7,300)

Starting Position: 33rd

Yeley is an experienced driver who will keep this car clean and drive it to a potentially top 15 finish. In 2020, Yeley finished 14th in this race in this same car. Like with Berry, Yeley is going to be the chalkiest play in this price range, and like with Berry I will give you some GPP pivot off Yeley below.

GPP Pivots off Yeley:

Jeremy Clements ($7,200) – Clements has been one of the most consistent and best drivers in the Xfinity Series this season. Coming into Martinsville, Clements has 5 straight races finishing 17th or better, including three top 10 finishes. Even though he starts from P11, I like Clements for GPP’s because I think the majority of people will find the $100 to get the potential PD upside of Yeley. Clements is definitely the riskier play, but that’s what you want in GPP’s

Brandon Brown ($7,000) – Brown is $200 cheaper, but he offers 8 spots more of place differential with similar upside to Clements. So far this season Brown has four finishes of 11th or better, including three top 10 finishes. Brown does have two finishes outside the top 30, but I am not worried about those going into this race. Brown finished 18th in the 2020 Martinsville race.

Other Options: Myatt Snider ($7,700 – P9), Riley Herbst ($8,200 – P7), Justin Haley ($8,800 – P5)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Bayley Currey ($4,500) – P26: Currey is the cheapest driver in the field but actually has some upside. Usually, we want to fade these drivers but Currey has a top 10 at Phoenix this season and a 15th place finish in 2020.
Josh Williams ($6,000) – P15
Stefan Parsons ($5,200) – P38
Jade Bufford ($5,000) – P30
Tommy Joe Martins ($6,400) – P17
Joe Graf Jr. ($5,400) – P28
George Gorham Jr. ($5,600) – P37: Gorham is making his NASCAR debut Friday. He is evidently a very experienced and talented driver from Florida. Gorham has had success in his career at tracks similar to the style Martinsville so he may be a decent play starting P37.

I also have interest in Timmy Hill and David Starr but I will need to check around on Friday to see if they have sponsors for this race. I will update in discord when I find this info out.

Make sure to check in discord throughout the day on Friday as I may update the value plays if I find out more info on sponsors and potential start and park drivers.

Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Bristol: Dirt 3/28

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

For the first time in 50 years, the NASCAR Cup Series will be racing on a dirt track. The last time NASCAR raced the Cup cars on dirt Richard Petty won! Friday was the first time the Cup cars ran laps on the track and NASCAR was forced to make some adjustments to the race because of certain issues that arose.

One major issue was tire wear which led to NASCAR making the stage breaks. We will now have stage 1 and 2 consisting of 100 laps with the third stage being a 50 lap sprint. NASCAR has also added competition cautions at lap 50 and 150. Since the tire wear was greater than expected and cars cannot pit under green, NASCAR was forced to add more yellow flags to allow teams to change tires as needed, and they allowed the teams an extra set of sticker tires so that each team now has 6 sets as opposed to the original 5.

When it comes to building lineups for Sunday, there are a few different things I am looking at. First I want to focus on drivers who have dirt track experience, but not the dirt track ringers, but I want drivers who are in good equipment. Secondly, I want to look at practice sessions and see who was fast and ran well. Lastly, I still want to look at the current season and see what cars are currently running well in 2021.

This week, and going forward, I am going to break down the dominator and mid-tier in order of how I rank the drivers in this tier as opposed to in salary order

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kyle Larson ($12,000)

Starting Position: 1st – Starting from rear because of engine change

Larson was far and away the fastest car in both practice sessions on Friday but has overheating issues and the team was forced to change the engine in the 5 forcing him to start from the rear. Nobody in this field has a better history on dirt (of Cup regulars) and is in some of the best equipment in the series. Larson will probably low owned now that he is starting at the rear but that doesn’t deter me from rostering him, he will get back up front I believe and in the end, he will end up in victory lane. It will be hard for Larson to get the dominator points he needs to make value but it is feasible.

Tyler Reddick ($10,500)

Starting Position: 27th

Reddick has some enormous place differential starting from P27 on Sunday making him one of the top plays. Looking at lap averages from Friday’s “happy hour” (second practice session), Reddick improved over time. Reddick showed plenty of speed over time as he ran laps and was second to only Larson when it came to 15, 20, and 25 lap averages.

Christopher Bell ($11,000)

Starting Position: 15th

Both Bell and Reddick will most likely be the chalkier plays of this tier but with the upside both have, especially Bell, I want to have some exposure to them. Bell has some great history at Eldora in the Truck series including a win and 3 total top 10 finishes and 128 laps led in just three races. I do worry because Bell didn’t show much speed on Friday running no higher than 25th in 10 and 15 lap average speed.

Austin Dillon ($9,700)

Starting Position: 9th

Dillon is a fantastic dirt track driver and he has been having an outstanding season in the RCR #3 Chevy. Last week, Dillon ran 3 races at Bristol at the Nationals and won all three of his features. If Larson doesn’t win, there is a good chance that Dillon gets the #3 into victory lane. In practice on Friday, Dillon did not have great lap times, but he said he really likes his car and he wasn’t pushing the car because of the tire wear issues. If the driver likes his car, no matter the lap times, I like his car.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($10,200)

Starting Position: 13th

Stenhouse is another one of the great dirt track driver in the field on Sunday. Early on this season, Stenhouse has been a pleasant surprise as he has finished no worse than 18th and has four straight top 15 finishes. Stenhouse not only loves racing on dirt, he even owns a World of Outlaws team. I really love the upside from Stenhouse on Sunday and I plan to have a lot of Stenhouse in my lineups.

Denny Hamlin ($9,100) – P2: Hamlin could lead a lot of early laps since he will now be on the pole
Chase Briscoe ($9,900) – P25: Briscoe is a decorated dirt track racer, but he hasn’t had the best season. I will probably have some exposure but not more than 10-20%
Ryan Blaney ($9,300) – P3: Blaney started out in the top 10 in Happy Hour, faded in the middle of the session, but figured it out again by the end. I think Blaney could be a surprise dominator in this race.
Stewart Friesen ($10,500) – P32: Friesen is another great dirt track racer but I worry about him being very chalky. I think he could easily make value at his price with PD, but the #77 is not the type of equipment Friesen is used to.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Alex Bowman ($7,700)

Starting Position, 7th

Bowman isn’t, in his own words, a dirt guy per se but he probably has more dirt starts than most. In practice on Friday, Bowman had the 2nd best 10 lap average in the first session. Bowman then ran the 5th best 10 lap average in Happy Hour. He was able to run the high line in practice which is the faster line and if he can do that on Sunday he could surprise some with a top 5 finish here.

Kyle Busch ($8,900)

Starting Position: 4th

Kyle Busch has been looking like the Kyle Busch of old lately with three top 10 finishes and two top 5’s in his last four races. Busch does have 2 wins at Bristol Dirt, both of which came last week at the Dirt Nationals. Now, it was not the same type of competition that Kyle will see on Sunday, but seat time on this track is just, if not more, important.

William Byron ($7,100)

Starting Position: 8th

Byron does not have much dirt racing experience outside of his one run at Eldora in 2016 where he finished 14th. I love Byron’s price and it will be easy for him to make value with the current form he and his team are in. Byron did not have a great first practice but his team made the changes needed and he went from the 23rd best 10 lap average to the 7th best in the second practice session.

Other Options: Martin Truex Jr. ($8,000 – P5), Bubba Wallace ($8,500 – P19), Joey Logano ($8,300 – P10th), Kevin Harvick ($8,100 – P6), Kurt Busch ($7,800 – P28)

Place Differential Play: Chase Elliott ($8,700 – P26)

Elliot is starting from P26 which makes him one of the best plays on this slate. He is definitely a great cash gameplay and good for single entry as well. Elliott was very consistent in practice running the 4th best 10 lap average in both, and the third-best 15 lap average.

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Ryan Newman ($6,900) – P14: Newman is a great dirt track driver with an extensive background. Newman finished with the 11th best 10 lap avg
Matt DiBenedetto ($6,700) – P12: Matty D is a top 10 threat and like Newman, he is a driver with significant dirt experience
Corey Lajoie ($5,000) – P30: Lajoie put in some laps at the Dirt Nationals last week. At practice this week Lajoie had the 19th best 15 lap average and the 18th best 10 lap average
Cole Custer ($5,100) – P21: Custer was middle of the pack in both practice sessions and a top 20 is the cards for sure
Ty Dillon ($6,600) P39: I wish Dillon was a little cheaper but like his brother, he has some dirt track seat time and could contend for a top 20
Ryan Preece ($6,000) – P22: Preece is not a dirt track driver but he does exceptionally well at Bristol normally. Last fall Preece finished 9th, and this weekend at practice Preece had the 11th best 15 lap average.
Michael McDowell ($5,200 – P16: McDowell has stated his strategy is to ride around for 249 laps and push it after cars in front of him. McDowell wasn’t great in 1st practice but they fixed the issue it would seem since he finished inside the top ten in Happy Hour
Chris Buescher ($6,200) – P11: This isn’t a great play but if you want to be different, then Buescher is the guy for me
Anthony Alfredo ($4,800) – P29: I don’t love Alfredo today, but he starts far enough back that he can make some value at his price. A top 25 is almost a lock if he can avoid the carnage and a top 20 is possible.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Truck Series Bristol: Dirt 3/28

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Truck series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

This weekend is different than every other race has been or will be this season, this weekend we race on dirt. Bristol is usually its own monster but this is a whole different ball game. In the Truck Series, we do have some type of dirt racing history to fall back on with Eldora Speedway. There have been seven races run in the Truck Series at Eldora and it has seven different winners. Stewart Friesen ($10,500) is the most recent winner (2019) and is undoubtedly one of the favorites for this race. There are also seven full-time Cup Series drivers running in this race on Saturday as well.

There were 44 drivers who entered but only 40 qualified for this race. JD Heffner withdrew from the race, Ryan Newman, Jessica Friesen, and Trevor Collins failed to qualify based on the algorithm NASCAR used to decide the starting grid.

NASCAR DFS: Cup Regulars

There are three drivers who aren’t just in this race seat time for the Cup race on Sunday but actually have a really good chance to win this race.

Kyle Larson ($11,500)

Starting Position: 28th

Larson is the favorite in this race and the Cup race on Sunday and is one of the best and most accomplished dirt racers in either field. Larson won the Eldora race back in 2016 leading 48 laps in the process. On Sunday, Larson will be in the #44 Niece Motorsports truck that Chastain drove to a top 10 last week. Larson is my pick to win this race and is a lock for any cash builds you make and will be in the majority of my GPP builds as well

Chase Briscoe ($11,000)

Starting Position: 33rd

Briscoe is the next driver I think can win this race on Sunday if the cards fall his way. Larson may be the favorite but Briscoe is right there as a close second. Briscoe won at Eldora race in 2018 and led 54 laps, he also finished 7th in 2019 leading 93 laps in the process. I think you should start any cash builds with Larson and Briscoe and find value to make that work.

Bubba Wallace ($9,700)

Starting Position: 32nd

Bubba Wallace is another former Eldora winner in running this race. Wallace dominated the Eldora race back in 2014, leading 97 laps on his way to a dominant victory. Even at the lowest price of the “ringers” who have a chance to win I don’t think Wallace will carry high ownership. People just don’t play him even though he is in a decent truck this week. Wallace will be driving the #11 that Spencer Davis drove to a top 20 last week.

Other Cup Series Regulars:

Kevin Harvick ($9,300) P30 – Harvick will be in the 17 that has two top 15’s this season for DGR
Martin Truex Jr. ($9,100) P15 – Of all the Cup drivers in this race nobody is in better equipment than Truex. He will be in the KBM #51 and could surprise with a top 5 if he figures out the track early on
Daniel Suarez ($8,000) P26 – Suarez is a decent play and he might carry some ownership because of his name and starting position. I won’t have any exposure to him personally, but he can be a good cash game play because he does have some upside.

NASCAR DFS: Truck Series Regulars

Stewart Friesen ($10,500)

Starting Position: 7th

Friesen has had plenty of success driving a NASCAR truck on dirt at Eldora in his career. In three races there Friesen has finishes of 1st, 2nd, and 3rd with his win coming in the series last race there in 2019. Friesen has led 150 laps over the three races at Eldora. On Friday, Friesen ran the 5th fastest single lap speed in first practice and 4th in second practice.

Matt Crafton ($8,600)

Starting Position: 4th

Crafton is another previous winner of the dirt race at Eldora that should be a contender on Saturday night. In seven career races at Eldora, Crafton has never finished worse than 10th but has only led laps in the one race he won in 2017. Crafton is my favorite mid-tier priced driver in this race and is a good pivot off one of the Cup drivers in GPP’s.

Todd Gilliland ($7,200)

Starting Position: 13th

Gilliland has some dirt experience from Eldora, running two races there in 2018 and 2019, and finished 5th in 2019, he did look really good in the first practice session on Friday. In the first session, Gilliland had the 12th fastest overall lap, but also had the fastest 10, 15, and 20 laps average speed. Gilliland had a top-five overall lap in second qualifying on Friday as well. I don’t think Gilliland is a threat to win this race, but he could pull out a surprise top 10.

Other Options: Ben Rhodes ($8,300) – Fastest lap in final practice, Parker Kligerman ($7,700), Sheldon Creed ($10,000), Zane Smith ($7,900) – Smith ran the most practice laps looking to get plenty of track time, Derek Kraus ($7,000)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Tate Fogelman ($4,500) – P24
Raphael Lessard ($6,600) – P29
Danny Bohn ($4,600) – P25
Myatt Snider ($6,500) – P37
Mike Marlar ($6,800) – P38
Hailie Deegan ($5,500) – P22
Chandler Smith ($6,300) – P21
Tanner Gray ($6,100) – P18
Jake Griffin ($5,700) – P34
Carson Hocevar ($5,800) – P11

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Premium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Atlanta 3/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

This week the Cup Series heads down to Georgia, more specifically Atlanta, for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 on Sunday. Last season’s winner Kevin Harvick ($11,000) is once again one of the favorites to win this race, but we need to decide if we want to pay up for Harvick at what could be lowered ownership.

Atlanta is another high tire wear course, similar to Homestead but maybe with more tire wear. We will want to look at drivers who faired well in that race earlier this season as well as drivers who have had success here in the past. When it comes to the drivers I want to target this week I want to look for drivers who have been successful here in the past, have a good history at other high tire wear tracks (Homestead, Darlington, Auto Club), and drivers who have been good of late. Pricing is soft on the top tier this week and the value tier is not great so I will look to fit 3 dominators into my lineups with 324 laps of dominator points available.

This week, and going forward, I am going to break down the dominator and mid-tier in order of how I rank the drivers in this tier as opposed to in salary order

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kyle Larson ($10,400)

Starting Position: 6th

Larson is one of the favorites on Sunday as he should be based on the 2021 season he is having in the #5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevy. In 2019, Larson’s last race at Atlanta, he was the most dominant car and should have won if not for a late-race incident that saw him finish 12th. In that race (in lesser equipment), Larson led a race-high 142 laps, had 54 fastest laps (most in the race), and had an average running position of 6.1. Larson also has the 2nd fastest speed rating in 2021, and nobody has a better speed ranking at 1.5 ovals this season than Larson. Needless to say, there is a very good chance Larson dominates this race on Sunday again but finishes it off in victory lane.

Kevin Harvick ($11,000)

Starting Position: 7th

Like I mentioned in the open, Harvick is the highest-priced driver on DK this weekend, but is his upside too limited to make value at that price? I believe he can be based on what he has done here in the past. Over the last 7 races in Atlanta, Harvick has led over 100 laps in 6 of those 7 races. Also, Harvick has won two of the last three Atlanta races, and this season he has the 5th best speed ranking.

Martin Truex Jr. ($9,600)

Starting Position: 2nd

Truex is one of the only drivers in this field who was able to run some “practice laps” on Saturday in the Xfinity race. On Saturday, Truex dominated the Xfinity race but a late-race caution kept him from earning his first Atlanta victory in a top-tier NASCAR series. Last season in the Cup race, Truex led 65 laps, had an average running position of 2.5, and won the first two stages while finishing 3rd. With Truex getting seat time on the track in Atlanta I really think that could be an advantage for him and potentially lead us to our first two-time winner this season.

Brad Keselowski ($10,200)

Starting Position: 4th

First and foremost let me get this out of the way, Keselowski will be without his crew chief on Sunday but I don’t think that is an issue and won’t factor into be rostering Keselowski. In the last four Atlanta races, Keselowski has won twice, oh, and in the other two races, he finished second. Keselowski has been good on similar tracks as well with six straight top 9 finishes on high tire wear tracks. and an average finish of 5.1.

Denny Hamlin ($10,000)

Starting Position: 1st

Hamlin has been the picture of consistency in 2021 when it comes to speed rankings. Nobody has been faster this season and Hamlin could have a dominant day on Sunday starting P1. Every weekend the #11 is fast, this team just knows how to build fast cars. It’s always risky playing the pole sitter, but with Hamlin on the pole, there is a pretty good chance he can lead leaps as well as hang around the top 5 all day.

Chase Elliott ($9,800) – P5: Elliot is relatively cheap this week but with good reason. Elliott hasn’t been great on 1.5 ovals this season, but it’s Elliott so he is always a contender
Joey Logano ($9,400) – P3: Logano has had some success here, but I don’t love the upside here for Logano. I won’t talk you off him because he can dominate, but I don’t think I’ll have exposure.
Ryan Blaney ($9,200) – P10: Blaney and the #12 team seem to be figuring it out now and Blaney could be a factor on Sunday. He has the best PD upside in this group.
William Byron ($9,000) – P9: Byron had a fast car in 2020 here, but hit the wall after the competition caution. That incident put him four laps down and he never recovered. He started 20th and was heading into the top 10 when the incident happened

Top Tier Place Differential Play: Kyle Busch ($10,700) – P19

Busch finished 2nd here last year and has finished top 7 in six of the last eight high tire wear tracks. Last season in six races at high tire wear tracks Busch had a 7.5 average finish which was 3rd best in the series.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Kurt Busch ($8,300)

Starting Position: 11th

Busch is a former three-time winner of this race and had to fight through adversity but had a good day. After starting at the rear, Busch then had to make a pass-through penalty which set him a lap down right away, but he fought back and came home 6th. In that race last year, Busch was 6th fastest late in a run and had the 9th best total speed ranking. Busch is my favorite mid-tier play today, but the next driver is a very close second.

Ryan Newman ($7,100)

Starting Position: 28th

Newman presents some amazing value at his price this weekend starting from P28. When you have a veteran like Newman starting this far back with great history at high tire wear tracks he becomes a near must play. Newman finished 7th at Homestead earlier this season and finished last season with a 14.5 average finish at these types of tracks. I really love Newman as a great inexpensive place differential play.

Alex Bowman ($8,800)

Starting Position: 14th

Bowman has never finished better than 12th here (2020) but his two career wins have come at high tire wear tracks. In seven high tire wear tracks in 20-21, Bowman has the third-best speed ranking but has a 9.4 average finish. This is the kind of stuff I talk about that average finish can be misleading, clearly, Bowman is fast at these tracks but just had some misfortune that ruined his races.

Austin Dillon ($7,300)

Starting Position: 13th

Dillon is one of the best of the bottom-priced mid-tier drivers on Sunday and a top 10 is definitely in the cards. Last year Dillon wasn’t great but managed an 11th place finish, but this season the speed had been there for the 3 team. I think Dillon could have himself a top 10 finish on Sunday.

Other Options: Christopher Bell ($7,800), Matt DiBenedetto ($8,100 – PD play starting P20), Aric Almirola ($8,000), Tyler Reddick ($8,400 – PD play starting P29),Bubba Wallace ($7,400)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Ricky Stenhouse ($6,300) – P12: Stenhouse has been nothing short of great in 2021. We don’t expect much from him and he has overperformed. Stenhouse has not finished lower than 18th this season and in his last three races lower than 13.
Anthony Alfredo ($5,500) P32: Alfredo has low 20’s upside which gives him some pretty good PD for his price
Chase Briscoe ($6,800) – P24: Outside of the Daytona RC, Briscoe has finished between 18th-22nd place. I don’t love the price for that limited value but he will be low owned and maybe this is the race he breaks out
Chris Buescher ($6,000) P17: Buescher has top 15 upside, but is more likely to finish low 20’s. The value tier is not great this week, so we need to make do with what we have.
Ross Chastain ($6,600) P21: Chastain has been a consistent driver for us this season and I see no reason it doesn’t continue this week.
Ryan Preece ($5,800) P23: Preece is another driver off to a surprising start. At his price and where he starts, unless he wrecks early, he can’t really hurt you
Daniel Suarez ($6,500) P25: After Daytona, Suarez’s average finish is 19.5. I am not a fan of his price either, but that price may keep his ownership down this week
Josh Bilicki ($4,800) P37: If you really need a punt play to make your build work, Bilicki is the guy. I don’t love the play and I don’t plan on playing him, but I know some of you love your cheap under $5K drivers

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Atlanta 3/20

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Atlanta is hosting a doubleheader Saturday afternoon with Truck Series kicking off the day followed by the Xfinity Series – EchoPark 250. Like with the Truck Series earlier on Saturday, the Xfinity race also has a Cup driver coming down to race. Martin Truex ($11,300) will be in the JGR #54 that Ty Gibbs has had much success in this season so we should see Truex also have a great day on Saturday as well. This is a 200 lap race so we have a good amount of dominator points available in this race, so I will look to have 2 dominators in my builds.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,300)

Starting Position: 18th

I mentioned in the open that Truex will be driving the #54 JGR Toyota on Saturday. We have seen both Ty Dillon and Ty Gibbs have good days in this car, especially Gibbs at the Daytona RC where he won his first career race. Truex is obviously the best driver to get into this seat this season and I think he will get this car to victory lane. I think Truex could collect plenty of dominator points as well as plus place differential points.

Austin Cindric ($10,900)

Starting Position: 1st

Cindric should dominate the early part of this race like he does most weeks. Last season, Cindric led 68 laps and had 41 fastest laps (both race highs) at this race but ended up 16th. We can see that Cindric was fast at Atlanta in 2020 and should have had a better fate. Cindric will have a better day on Saturday and should be fighting with Truex for the win come lap 200.

AJ Allmendinger ($10,300)

Starting Position: 3rd

Almendinger is finally back full-time in a top-flight NASCAR series and is making the best of it in 2021. In five races this season, Dinger has three top 5 finishes including his win at Las Vegas. Speaking of winning, Allmendinger won this race last season while leading 37 laps late and picking up dominator points from running 19 fastest laps as well. There is a lot to like in the top tier this week and Allmendinger is definitely one of the better plays.

Michael Annett ($9,000)

Starting Position: 27th

I hardly, if ever, write up Michael Annett as a top play, but this week Annett just makes sense in my opinion. After having a solid start to the season. Annett crashed last week and ended up 38th which gave him the starting position of 27th this week. After a rough Daytona, Annett rattled off three straight top 15 finished, including his 6th place finish at Las Vegas. Last season in Atlanta, Annett finished 11th and led just 3 laps, but those numbers would most certainly make us happy on Saturday with the #1 JRM Chevy.

Other Options (in order of preference): Daniel Hemric ($10,000 – P11), Brandon Jones ($9,600 – P16), Noah Gragson ($11,500 – P30), Justin Haley ($9,200 – P13), Ryan Sieg ($9,400 – P35)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Brett Moffitt ($8,400)

Starting Position: 8th

Every week I think Moffitt can’t be good again, can he? And with the exception of Las Vegas, Moffitt has been good. In five races this season, Moffitt has only finished worse than 11th once this season, the aforementioned Las Vegas race where he wrecked and finished 34th. Moffitt is strictly a GPP play and is a way to get different from everyone who will be paying up for the top tier drivers.

Josh Berry ($8,200)

Starting Position: 22nd

Berry will be taking over the 02 in the Truck Series from Kris Wright which can only be a good thing. Last season in this #8 car, Daniel Hemric finished 4th in this race. I would not be surprised to see Berry finish around the same on Saturday.

Santino Ferrucci ($7,500)

Starting Position: 12th

Ferrucci has seen immense improvement as this season has progressed with back-to-back top 15 finishes in the Sam Hunt #26. This is the 23 year Ferrucci’s first season in a NASCAR series and he is proving himself to be a respectable driver so far. I don’t think Ferrucci gets any ownership on Saturday making him a really good GPP play. There is plenty of risk involved with using Ferrucci, but a top 10 is also a possibility as well.

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Chad Finchum ($5,400 ) – P40
Cody Ware ($4,500) – P28
Landon Cassill ($5,600) – P20
Jeremy Clements ($6,400) – P10
Tommy Joe Martins ($4,900) – P15
Timmy Hill ($4,800) – P17
Jade Buford ($6,000) – P21
Blaine Perkins ($5,500) – P25
Dexter Bean ($4,600) – P29
Jeffrey Earnhardt ($6,800) – P26

Make sure to check in discord throughout the day on Saturday as I may update the value plays if I find out more info on sponsors and potential start and park drivers.

Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up to date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Truck Series Atlanta 3/20

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

The NASCAR Camping World Truck Series is back this weekend and is the first race of a doubleheader day on Saturday from Atlanta Motor Speedway! This race features two Cup Series regulars, Kyle Busch ($14,000) and Ross Chastain ($13,000). Busch will be back in his number 51 Toyota while Chastain will be in the #44 Niece Motorsports Chevy.

Busch starts 2nd and there is a pretty good chance he leads the majority of laps (if not all) and could also earn the most dominator points for this race. I can also see a reason to fade Busch when you look at his recent history in this truck at AMS. Busch only has one win in his last four races at Atlanta which is also his only top 20 in that time period. I will definitely have exposure to Busch but it won’t 100% exposure like usual when he runs the Truck Series.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Ross Chastain ($13,000)

Starting Position: 40th

Chastain has two straight 6th place finishes in a Niece truck at Atlanta (2019 & 2020). In both races, Chastain started towards the back of the field and made his way through for a top 10. Chastain is the place differential play for this race and I will have more exposure to him over Busch. I think Chastain could actually push for the win, but even just a top 10 would be enough to make value and that’s all we really want.

Tyler Ankrum ($10,200)

Starting Position: 30th

Ankrum has not had a great start to the season, but it’s not necessarily on Ankrum. In two of his three races, Ankrum was involved in wrecks that ended his day. As long as he can avoid trouble, a top 20 is in the cards. Combining his high salary and poor finishes, Ankrum will probably come in at very low ownership but he has the upside to make his salary pay off. Last season Akrum finished 15th in his first Atlanta race.

Grant Enfinger ($9,000)

Starting Position: 19th

Enfinger LOVES racing at Atlanta and is grossly underpriced for this race. In 5 career races here Enfinger has never finished outside the top ten and won this race last season. After Chastain, my next highest exposure to a driver will be Enfinger. I don’t think he wins this race again, but I do think he earns another top 10 and makes value.

Other Options: John H Nemechek ($9,600), Austin Hill ($11,000), Sheldon Creed ($9,900), Brett Moffitt ($9,300)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Ben Rhodes ($8,800)

Starting Position: 5th

Rhodes won the first two races this season and finished 10th at Las Vegas two weeks ago. Even though this team has already earned their playoff spot they are taking the foot off the gas and are still out there trying to lead laps and win races. I don’t know if Rhodes can get his 3rd win on Saturday but a top 5 for a driver who will probably have under 15% ownership will be someone I am interested in every week.

Derek Kraus ($8,100)

Starting Position: 29th

Like Ankrum, Kraus has had some bad luck this season but that doesn’t mean I am going to ignore a great place differential play with HUGE upside. Last season Kraus started 11th and finished 7th in his first race at this track. As long as Kraus can avoid the cars that typically wreck at the back of the field early on, he should drive his way through and finish top 15.

Spencer Davis ($7,000)

Starting Position: 39th

This is the first time we will see Davis on the track in 2021, but he has had two good days in Atlanta in 2020 and 2018. In 2018 he drove for KBM so that race isn’t as relative, but in 2020 he drove the same truck he will be in on Saturday. Last year at this race, Davis started from P34 and came home 25th. I will gladly take a 25th place finish starting from P39 on Saturday for Davis. If you want to play both Busch and Chastain, Davis is the best mid-tier option for that build.

Other Options: Parker Kligerman ($8,600 – if you $200-$400 Kligerman is a GREAT pivot off Rhodes or Enfinger), Johnny Sauter ($7,900), Raphael Lessard ($7,700), Chandler Smith ($7,500), Matt Crafton ($8,400)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Jordan Anderson ($6,000) – P24
Bret Holmes ($5,900) – P35
Akinori Ogata ($4,500) – P38
Dawson Cram ($5,400) – P27
Bill Lester ($6,200) – P31 – Driving the #17 that Herbst and Gilliland drove to top 15 finishes this season
Ryan Ellis ($4,800) – P36
Hailie Deegan ($6,500) – P28
Chase Purdy ($6,900) – P26
Cory Roper ($5,800) – P34
Kris Wright ($4,900) – P18

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Premium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Phoenix 3/14

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

This week we are out in the desert for the Instacart 500 from Phoenix Raceway! Looking back to last week quickly we saw Kyle Larson ($9,600) dominate the second half of the race from Vegas and get the win. Phoenix is another great track for Larson, so this won’t be the last time you see his name in this article.

Also last week we had Kevin Harvick ($11,900) as absolute chalk that completely busted. This week Harvick is the highest priced driver starting from P18 which will make people have to decide if they want to play Harvick at his elevated price.

This week, and going forward, I am going to break down the dominator and mid tier in order of how I rank the drivers in this tier as opposed to in salary order

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Chase Elliott ($11,500)

Starting Position: 6th

Elliott is the defending series champion and won the fall race here championship weekend to clinch the title. We know this team knows to prepare dominant cars for this track and they will have one on Sunday. Elliott had 53 fastest laps and led 153 laps (49% of the race) at this race in November, both were the most by any driver. In the spring he was just as dominant leading more laps than anyone (93) and had more fastest laps than the field as well (60). Basically, Elliott should dominate this race on Sunday and I don’t fear his high price tag.

Brad Keselowski ($10,400)

Starting Position: 1st

Keselowski has never won at Phoenix, but this could be his week. Last week at Vegas, Keselowski was the fastest car but just couldn’t get to Larson to get the victory. It was a similar situation for the #2 Penske Ford at Phoenix last season where he was the fastest car (tied with Elliott). Elliott dominated the middle of the race, but Keselowski was the fastest car in the final 80 laps but just couldn’t get to Elliott. I really like what Keselowski has done this season and I think this may be his week to get his first Phoenix win.

Kyle Larson ($9,600)

Starting Position: 2nd

Coming off his first win in 2021, Larson will start 2nd and I think he is honestly underpriced for what he could potentially do at this race. Last spring Larson finished 4th in the #42 Chip Ganassi Chevy which isn’t nearly as good as the car he will be in on Sunday. Larson’s speed ranking was 11th, but he came on strong at the end of the race and was the 4th fastest car in the finally 80 or so laps.

Joey Logano ($11,100)

Starting Position: 9th

Logano is priced up on Sunday but I like that because it could keep his ownership down. Last season at this race Logano came home with victory after leading 60 laps and having ranked 3rd in speed in the race. Logano was also strong in the fall where he finished 3rd and led 125 laps (second to Elliott). In 2020 on similar flat short tracks like this one nobody was better than the 22 team. Logano had a 2.8 average finish, finished in the top 4 in EVERY race, and ranked as the 4th fastest car overall. Logano should definitely be a factor for the win and a plethora of dominator points on Sunday.

5 – Denny Hamlin ($9,900) – P3: I really do like Hamlin this week, but I think he may be somewhat chalky and there are better options around him this week

6 – Kyle Busch ($10,800) – P7: Busch finally had a good showing in Vegas last week. I haven’t decided if I will have a lot or none of Kyle in this race, but I think his ownership will be down again this week

7- Kevin Harvick ($11,900) – P18: Harvick has won at Phoenix nine times, and we cannot overlook that stat. I don’t love the price, but I do love the possible place differential upside.

Top Tier Place Differential Play: Aric Almirola ($9,000) – P30

Almirola has been in a slump to start the year, but he is at a track where he’s had success. In the 4 flat short track races last season, Alrimola finished inside the top 13 in each race and had an average finish of 9th. I thought Almirola would be priced higher so he will be chalky, but this could be good chalk that I don’t mind eating.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Christopher Bell ($8,100)

Starting Position: 4th

I don’t think anyone will play Bell this week based on his starting position, but that is why I have him as my top mid-tier play. Bell is in some of the best equipment in the series and should compete for a top 10, maybe even a top 5 on Sunday. Last season at similar tracks Bell fared well in inferior equipment. At New Hampshire Bell was the tenth fastest car, and then at Richmond Bell ranked 14th. This season alone Bell has had fastest laps, led laps, or both in every race and I think that is an indicator of how well he has been doing in 2021 and I am not afraid to put him in my lineups on Sunday.

William Byron ($8,300)

Starting Position: 10th

Byron has been good at Phoenix, especially last year when he came home with two top 10 finishes in two races here. In 2021 so far, Byron has been one of the best drivers with two straight top 10’s including the win at Homestead. At short flat tracks like Phoenix, Byron has finished inside the top 15 in 9 of his 14 races at these tracks. Byron had a 13.25-speed ranking last season at similar tracks and was top 13 in all races with the exception of Richmond. Byron is practically a lock for a top 10 on Sunday, barring unforeseen circumstances obviously.

Matt DiBenedetto ($8,500)

Starting Position: 20th

DiBenedetto is actually one of the top drivers at Phoenix, and short flat tracks in general. Over his last three Phoenix races, DiBenedetto has an average finishing position of 11.3 and an average running position of 11.6. At similar style tracks in 2020, DiBenedetto had the 7th best speed ranking (9.5) and had an average finish of 11th (8th best in the series)

Mid Tier Place Differential Play: Tyler Reddick ($7,900) – P23

Reddick was a top 10 contender last season at short flat tracks and had a total speed ranking of 12th. Last season at the first Phoenix race Reddick had the 8th best speed ranking and was top 10 most of the day but a late-race wreck relegated him to a 33rd place finish.

Other Options: Kurt Busch ($7,700), Alex Bowman ($8,700), Austin Dillon ($7,400), Bubba Wallace ($7,200)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Cole Custer ($6,700) – P24: Custer was a top 15 driver at these tracks last season
Ricky Stenhouse ($5,500) – P11: Stenhouse starts high in the field, but he is cheap and was top 20 here last Spring until he got busted for speeding on pit road
Chris Buescher ($6,400) – P17: Buescher has five straight top 20’s at Phoenix
Anthony Alfredo ($5,800) – P28: Alfredo has low twenties potential as he has been improving his finishes each week.
Michael McDowell ($6,200) – P16: McDowell is having a career year and this is his home track and a top 20 is on the cards
Daniel Suarez ($5,900) – P27: Suarez finished 21st here last spring, he is in better equipment this season.
Ryan Newman ($6,600) – P19: Short-track racing has been some of Newman’s best tracks and he hasn’t finished lower than 24th here since 2016
Corey Lajoie ($6,000) – P33: If Lajoie can avoid more issues with his car he can easily come home top 25, but that’s a big IF.
Ross Chastain ($6,900) – P22: Chastain has an average speed ranking of 15.5 in 2021, and if things go well for Chastain he could pull a top 15.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Phoenix 3/13

Mitchell Thoennes 4 years ago

written by Mitchell Thoennes

This week the NASCAR Xfinity Series heads to Phoenix, the site of the final race last season where we saw Austin Cindric ($11,200) win and become the 2020 season champion. Cindric is definitely one of the favorites for this race and the season title again in 2021. I don’t love Cindric’s starting position but he is the odds-on favorite to win this race (+275) and with him starting from the 3rd position he does offer early dominator point upside. I will have some Cindric in my lineups on Saturday, but there are some better options that I will breakdown below.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Justin Allgaier ($12,000)

Starting Position: 12th

Allgaier is the highest-priced driver on the slate, and for good reason, he dominates races here at Phoenix. Last season at this race, Allgaier led 51 laps (25% of the race) and had 20 fastest laps. Allgaier offers the best place differential upside of all drivers in this tier as well. I really like Allgaier this week and he may be my favorite play in this tier.

Noah Gragson ($11,600)

Starting Position: 10th

I said Allgaier was the best PD play in this tier, well that would make Gragson the second best. Gragson starts 10th but has top 5 potential and there is a chance he wins this race (+800). In the first Phoenix race n 2020, Gragson wasn’t dominant like he can be at times, but even so, he did lead 27 laps as well as having 8 fastest laps. Gragson also spent the entire race last spring running in the top 15 and had an average running position of 4.3.

Justin Haley ($9,200)

Starting Position: 5th

While I think many people will flock to last week’s winner and Haley’s Kaulig Racing teammate AJ Allmendinger ($10,400), I prefer to go with Haley. Last season Haley has a good day here at Phoenix where he ran an average position of 8.1 and made the 3rd most green flag passed (52). Haley had two top 10 finishes here last season (5th and 8th) and while he doesn’t collect dominator points, he is really good at flat tracks and should come home with a top 5.

Riley Herbst ($10,100) has been having an atrocious year in 2021. Herbst offers great upside potential but I cannot roster him for this price based on the year he is having. He is a safe play on Saturday, and I won’t try and talk you out of him, but just know I won’t be

Other Options (in order of preference):Brandon Jones ($9,500),AJ Allmendinger ($10,400), Harrison Burton ($10,800),

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Ty Gibbs ($8,900)

Starting Position: 27th

In his first career start in an Xfinity Series race all Gibbs did was dominate the second half of the Daytona RC on route to the win. DraftKings was smart and jacked his price up, rightfully so. Gibbs is in some of the best equipment in the series and should definitely contend for a top 10 with great PD upside

Ryan Sieg ($8,600) was someone I really liked last week and still do this weekend. My only worry with Sieg will be ownership, with him starting from P31. I know Sieg has a top 15, maybe top 10 car but he will most likely be the play for a lot of people in the mid-tier so unless you play cash games I wouldn’t look to roster Sieg on Saturday.

Brett Moffitt ($8,400)

Starting Position: 20th

If you are looking for a lower-owned pivot off Sieg for GPP’s, I give you Brett Moffitt. I don’t expect Moffitt to have near the ownership that Sieg will and he may actually have a better race car this weekend. In my opinion, Moffitt has a top 10 car every week and this week is no exception. Moffitt has three finishes of 11th or better already this season and has been very successful here in Phoenix with the Truck Series (1 win and 3 top 10’s)

Josh Berry ($7,600)

Starting Position: 9th

Berry is one of the best mid-tier options this week. Over the beginning of this season, Berry has progressively improved since his first race in the JRM #8. We know the JRM cars are always running towards the front and Berry is a short track specialist of sorts. In 3 Xfinity Series short track races, Berry has two top 10 finishes and an average finish of 9.3. I like his chances for a top 10 this week, or even a top 5.

Other Options: Alex Labbe ($7,200), Myatt Snider ($8,200), Santino Ferrucci ($7,400)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

JJ Yeley ($6,700) P33 – Too much upside for this low of a price
Stefan Parson ($5,400) P35
Josh Williams ($6,000) – P17
Timmy Hill ($5,500) – P39 – Way too cheap for where he starts
Blaine Perkins ($4,700) – P28 – Only driver under $5K I am interested in and is in the same equipment as Moffitt
Bayley Currey ($5,900) – P29
David Starr ($5,300) – P37 – Starr has top 25 potential this week, maybe even top 20
Landon Cassill ($5,200) – P18
Gray Gaulding ($6,900) – P34
Dexter Bean ($4,500) – P22

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Premium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Las Vegas 3/7

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

We are back for one last time this weekend from Las Vegas with the Cup Series Pennzoil 400! Last week we saw Byron dominate the second half of the race and get the win. We also saw Kyle Busch as the top-priced driver and for intents and purposes, bust. This week, Kyle is the highest-priced driver again and I just don’t think he can meet the value he needs to for that huge price tag. Joey Logano is the two-time defending champion of this race and there is a really good chance he 3 peats.

Unlike last week, tire wear here is minimal so you won’t see as much strategy involving tires, and also tires won’t make too much of a difference later in runs. When building lineups I will try to follow similar builds to the previous races this weekend. I want to find one driver who will lead a good portion of laps, and then pair them with drivers who have place differential upside in the top tier. We have some good plays in the mid-tier so we don’t need to take more than 2 low-tier drivers which is definitely what we want.

Kurt Busch ($8,100) won the fall race here last season but he wasn’t a dominant driver and benefited from a timely caution. This was Busch’s first win at his home track. I wouldn’t say I want to fade Kurt on Sunday but even though he’s shown good speed this season and won here in 2020 he is not one of the top options in the mid-tier this week.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

This week, and going forward, I am going to break down the dominator tier in order of how I rank the drivers in this tier as opposed to in salary order.

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,000)

Starting Position: 4th

Truex has been immensely successful at Vegas over his career, especially recently. In five of the last six races here Truex has had a top five ranked car based on all the speed metrics. Since 2017 Truex has a 3.5 average finish, a 6th place average running position, and has led 47.3 laps per race. Truex looked really good last week at Homestead and will be a threat to win on Sunday.

Kevin Harvick ($9,700)

Starting Position: 1st

Harvick dominated this race last season, but ended up second to Logano. In the first Las Vegas race in 2020, Harvick had 61 fastest laps and 85 laps led, both of which were tops in the entire race field. Normally we don’t want polesitters, but when you have someone like Harvick who could take over a race and lead 75-100 laps you need to roster those types of drivers.

Chase Elliott ($10,600)

Starting Position: 8th

In my mind, Elliott rounds out the trio of drivers I think have the potential to dominate this race. Last season in the fall Las Vegas race Elliott had one of the best cars in the entire field but you wouldn’t know it by his 22nd place finish. Elliott led 73 laps, finished 4th in stage one, and won stage two, and lastly, Elliott had an average running position of 4.4. If it wasn’t for an untimely caution late in the race Elliott probably would have come home with an easy top 5.

Joey Logano ($10,000)

Starting Position: 15th

Logano is one of the best fantasy drivers when it comes to Las Vegas. Like I said in the open, Logano is the back-to-back winner of this race and will be one of the favorites to win again on Sunday. In the last 5 spring Las Vegas races, Logano has finished in the top seven in every race and has an average finish of 3rd. Since the current rules package was introduced (last 4 Vegas races), Logano has led the most laps per race (56.8), has the second-best average finish (6.3), and the 3rd best averaging running position (8.3).

5 – Kyle Larson ($9,400) – P3

6 – Brad Keselowski ($10,300) – P10

7 – Denny Hamlin ($9,200) – P6

Top Tier Place Differential Play: Ryan Blaney ($10,800) – P26

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

William Byron ($8,300)

Starting Position: 2nd

Byron is once again in a position to be overlooked and come in with minimal ownership and I want to take advantage of that. Last week Byron surprised me and dominated at Homestead and I won’t make the same mistake this week. In the fall race here last season, Byron had a very unfair finish of 25th place. Byron led 12 laps and had 10 fastest laps as well as spending the majority of the race inside the top 15 and being the 13th ranked car in NASCAR speed rankings. In this race, last season Byron was tied with Logano for the fastest car on track in all segments, but again was unlucky because of cautions and finished 22nd.

Alex Bowman ($8,800)

Starting Position: 9th

Bowman was in contention in both Vegas races last season and ranked 4th (Spring) and 3rd (Fall) in the speed rankings but finished 13th and 5th respectively. Bowman has the 5th best average finish ranking over the last four Las Vegas races with an 8.8 average finish.

Austin Dillon ($7,600)

Starting Position: 12th

Last season in the 2nd Las Vegas race Dillon was a contender for the win and was running inside the top 10 most of the night. Dillon finished 6th in both stages and was set u for a great finish until it all unraveled for him. With about 75 laps to go Dillon received a pit road penalty for too many men over the wall on his stop when a crew member fell over trying to catch a tire. After being sent to the back for that violation, Dillon had a power steering leak 20 laps later which ended his day and had him finish 32nd. Austin has looked good this season and was a top car here last season and should be one of the top mid-tier drivers when it’s all said and done on Sunday.

Tyler Reddick ($7,900)

Starting Position: 11th

Reddick was a chalk play last week, but this week he could be on the complete opposite end of ownership. On Saturday Reddick ran the Xfinity Series race here and came home in 12th place so he has a feel for the track which is an advantage no one else in the top tiers of the field has. Last Fall Reddick a disastrous race here finishing 38th, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. On lap 37 Reddick had to make a pit stop for a loose wheel which put him a lap down. Then on the final lap of the second stage, Reddick went hard into the wall which put an end to his day early.

Mid Tier Place Differential Play: Aric Almirola ($8,600) – P28

Other Options: Christopher Bell ($7,700), Bubba Wallace ($7,000), Chase Briscoe ($7,400)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Cole Custer ($6,500) – P20: Custer was 16th here last fall and a top 15 is definitely in the cards on Sunday
Chris Buescher ($6,400) P18: Buescher was a surprise last week when he led a good portion of the early race, but his car got away from him late
Daniel Suarez ($6,100) P22: Suarez has two straight top 20’s and he is a very confident driver right now.
Anthony Alfredo ($5,700) P27: Alfredo is a mid-20’s driver at best, but maybe some luck comes his way, and does better on Sunday
Ryan Preece ($5,800) P19: I don’t expect much more than a mid-20’s finish from Preece but he has been better than expected this season, so a high teens finish is possible
Ryan Newman ($6,700) P13: I don’t love Newman, but he is a veteran that will have little to no ownership
Michael McDowell ($6,000) P5: McDowell has not done well at Vegas in the past, but he has outdone all expectations this season so far, so why not again on Sunday.
Corey Lajoie ($6,300) P32: Lajoie had some decent success in recent Las Vegas races finishing in the low 20’s. That type of finish would be great value for his price on Sunday.
BJ McLeod ($5,100) P34: McLeod is at best a low-30’s to high-20’s driver. I don’t expect much but in large field GPP’s he could be a decent low owned play.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Las Vegas 3/6

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

This week we are in Sin City, which I have renamed Chalk City this week thanks to all the chalk plays this weekend especially in the Xfinity Series. Because of some poor finishes and one driver being disqualified after post race inspection we have some really quality drivers in great spots for huge place differential days. We also have some pretty good value tier drivers as well which will make playing the high priced guys easier.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Austin Cindric ($10,500) should be viewed as we did with Nemechek on Friday night. He will lead the most laps and most likely win this race. I want to paint him with the drivers listed below in this tier for dominator/place differential combos. Like I mentioned, there is some decent value in this race to make this type of build work.

Tyler Reddick ($11,600 – P40)

Noah Gragson ($11,300 – P34)

Justin Allgaier ($11,000 – P37)

I group these drivers together because they are all going to be the chalk of this tier, and this race. We were concerned going into last weeks race about what Reddick could get out of this car and he got all he could and then some. Reddick was disqualified post race, but luckily DraftKings doesn’t take that into account and pays out based of unofficial results.

Gragson and Allgaier are two of the top drivers in the Xfinity Series and will be competing for a title later this season but have started slowly this season. Gragson is a Vegas kid and ran well here last year running the second fasted green flag average as well as running 92% of laps in the top 15 and finished 4th. As for Allgaier, he led 63 laps and had 32 fastest laps before finishing 8th. I will most likely be trying to fit 2 of these drivers in each of my lineups along wit the next driver.

Harrison Burton ($9,900)

Starting Position: 22nd

Burton was one of the best drivers in the series last season at Las Vegas and I like his odds to have another great race here on Saturday. Unfortunately last season Burton did not have any dominator points but this week we don’t really need those to make value since he starts so far back in the field. In 2020 Burton was top 10 in green flag speed average in both Vegas races and finished 5th and 9th. Burton will be a contender for the win on Saturday and should have an easy time coming home top 10.

Other Options (in order of preference): Riley Herbst ($9,000), Ty Dillon ($10,200), Daniel Hemric ($9,200)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

This weeks mid tier is not great. There are a couple of decent plays, but I would rather try and fit 3 top tier drivers in and use the value tier. I will give you a couple of plays I do like in this tier though.

Ryan Sieg ($8,200)

Starting Position: 11th

Ryan Sieg had two really good days at Vegas last season with two top 5 finishes. In the first Las Vegas race of the 2020 season Sieg came home in 3rd place, led one lap, and had 21 fastest laps after starting 32nd. Sieg followed that up in the fall with a 5th place finish and 10 laps led.

Jeb Burton ($7,800)

Starting Position: 5th

Burton has been one of the best and most consistent drivers in the Xfinity Series this season. Burton has a top 5 in each of the three races this season and will most likely be low owned on Saturday because of his limited place differential upside. With his price being as low as it is, Burton just needs to stay in the top 10 and he should be able to make value.

Other Options: Ryan Vargas ($7,100), Brett Moffitt ($8,400), Myatt Snider ($8,000), Jeffrey Earnhardt ($7,600)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

UPUPDATESGray Gaulding ($6,700) – P36
Bayley Currey ($6,200) – P39
Joe Graf Jr. ($4,800) – P26
Josh Williams ($6,000) – P24
Colby Howard ($6,100) – P38
Jesse Little ($5,000) – P32 – may start and park. Check discord for updates
Stefan Parsons ($5,200) – P33
Brandon Brown ($6,900) – P25
Matt Mills ($4,700) – P31
David Starr ($5,100) – P28 – may start and park. Check discord for updates

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