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NASCAR DFS

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Darlington 5/9/21

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

The Cup Series will complete the throwback weekend from Darlington on Sunday with the Goodyear 400! This weekend we will have plenty of teams running variances of old-school paint schemes(See them all here). This is another high tire wear track that makes pit strategy, caution timing, and driver experience extra important. It is important to use history at Darlington and other tracks like it when deciding which drivers to choose. Typically a driver who has never driven or has never had success at the track “Too Tough To Tame” won’t on Sunday either.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kyle Larson ($11,400)

Starting Position: 14th

Larson has been spectacular at Darlington during his career. In his last four races (missed all three in 2020) he has three finishes of 3rd or better and has an average finish of 5.5. Larson also loves to run the high line at tracks like this with high tire wear, which in most races is usually the faster line. We saw that be the case in both of the previous races this weekend so Sunday should be no different. I know his price is steep, but I think there is just enough value to get Larson into your lineups on Sunday.

Kevin Harvick ($9,600)

Starting Position: 2nd

Throughout the 2021 season, people have been questioning if Harvick was done and what happened to Stewart-Haas Racing. I was one of those people, but of late Harvick has been one of the best drivers on the track each week. Harvick is coming to Darlington on back-to-back top 5 finishes and three top 10’s in the last four. Now coming off four solid weeks we get to a track where Harvick has been virtually unbeatable lately. Last season at Darlington, Harvick won twice, lead an avg of 67 laps P/R, and had an average finish of 1.7. In his last ten races here, Harvick has nine top 5 finishes as well.

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,300)

Starting Position: 4th

Like the two drivers on this list before him, Truex has to be considered a driver who can win this race and dominate it. At high tire wear tracks like Darlington, Truex has the 2nd best speed rating. Last fall Truex dominated this race after winning both of the first two stages and having the fastest car. He had a misleading 22nd place finish because as he was chasing down Chase Elliott, he got caught up with him and forced him into the back of the pack. In that race, Truex also led 196 laps and had 90 fastest laps.

Alex Bowman ($9,400)

Starting Position: 19th

Bowman is one of the best high tire wear track drivers in the entire field, and he owns two wins at two of these tracks (Chicagoland and Auto Club). This season at high tire wear tracks Bowman owns a 3rd place finish at Atlanta and a 9th at Homestead. Bowman is a bit risky and is a GPP only play with how he is currently running in 2021. Over his last five races, Bowman has only finished better than 18th once, his win at Richmond.

Denny Hamlin ($10,600)

Starting Position: 7th

Hamlin is a three-time winner at the track “Too Tough To Tame” including winning the one race that Kevin Harvick didn’t win last year. It is very surprising that Hamlin hasn’t found his way to victory lane yet in 2021, and even though he leads the series in points, Hamlin needs that win and it could come on Sunday. Hamlin should have been a factor here last fall but made a crucial mistake on pit road that took him from 3rd to the last teens and he ended up in 13th.

Remaining Top Tier Drivers (Ranked):

Kyle Busch ($9,800) – P3
Brad Keselowski ($10,000) – P1
Chase Elliott ($9,200) – P6
Ryan Blaney ($9,000) – P16
Joey Logano ($11,100) – P12

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

William Byron ($8,800)

Starting Position: 5th

I love Byron again this week, even though the projections don’t. Byron has a top 10 finish in nine straight weeks and has an average finish of 6th in those nine races. Byron did not fair well in the first Darlington race last season where he finished 35th thanks to an early wreck. In the next two Darlington races, Byron redeemed himself with 12th and then 5th place finishes. Byron should make this 10 straight weeks with a top 10 on Sunday.

Kurt Busch ($8,400)

Starting Position: 15th

This is a spot where I trust a driver who has been here before and performed well. Busch has not had a good 2021 season, he has been fast but just can’t get it done. In a complete 180 to Byron, it has been 8 races since Busch has a top 10, but at Darlington this could come to an end. In five of his six last Darlington, Kurt has finished between 3rd and 8th. Busch is a very risky play, obviously, but like I said in the open you want to trust and use drivers who have had success at Darlington, and that is Kurt Busch

Austin Dillon ($7,500)

Starting Position: 9th

Dillon hasn’t races many times at Darlington (9 races) but he has had success here. Dillon has finished top 12 in six races here, and in three of the last four he has finished 11th or better. Last fall Dillon finished 2nd to Harvick. This season at high tire wear tracks Austin finished 6th at Atlanta and 12th at Homestead.

Other Options: Christopher Bell ($8,600 – P21), Erik Jones ($8,200 – P26), Ricky Stenhouse ($7,600 – P28), Aric Almirola ($8,000 – P28), Ryan Newman ($7,200 – P20)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Chris Buescher ($6,500) – P11: Buescher has had some low to mid teen finishes at Darlington and has had good runs at high tire wear tracks this season
Ross Chastain ($6,300) – P18: Chastain is a mid teens upside driver since this is where he lands every week.
Ryan Preece ($5,900) – P29: At best Preece should be a low 20’s play on Sunday.
Daniel Suarez ($6,700) – P21: Suarez and 99 team have been competitive every week, don’t be surprised if they pull out a low teens finish
Michael McDowell ($6,100) – P13: McDowell is probably going to end up in the mid to high teens. He is cheap enough to make value if he can pull that off. GPP only
Chase Briscoe ($6,800) – P22: Pretty good chance Briscoe finishes just about where he starts. There isn’t much upside but he does have a win in the Xfinity Series here so he does have a feel for the track
Corey Lajoie ($5,700) – P30: Will need some attrition to make value which is not entirely out of the question on Sunday
Anthony Alfredo ($5,400) – P25: Cheap, but VERY risky. Play at your own risk this week.

Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Darlington 5/8/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

After a week off, the Xfinity Series is back on the track at the track that is “Too Tough To Tame”, Darlington! This is a fun track but it can also have plenty of chaos as we saw Friday night in the Truck Series race.

Similar to the truck race on Friday, we have a bunch of top-tier drivers with some great place differential upside that we will want to play. One of those drivers has to be the top-priced driver on the slate, Ty Gibbs ($11,100), but he is not the only one as you will see below.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Ty Gibbs ($11,100)

Starting Position: 29th

Gibbs is the top overall play for me and is a lock for cash games and single entry contests. I plan on playing Gibbs in GPP’s as well because he could very easily be the highest-scoring driver in this race. In three Xfinity races this season, Gibbs hasn’t finished lower than 4th. Gibbs has never raced at Darlington, so he could have some trouble while trying to figure it out but he is such a talented driver at just 18 years old that I don’t worry about him

Josh Berry ($9,100)

Starting Position: 24th

Josh Berry is a solid GPP play for me on Saturday. When you look at Berry’s races this season he is pretty much a top 10 car or he finishes 27th or worse. Berry is another driver who has never raced at Darlington but, like with Gibbs, I don’t worry about Berry having issues figuring out this track and getting a good finish today.

Brandon Jones ($10,400)

Starting Position: 22nd

Jones won at Darlington the last time the series was here in September. In six previous races at Darlington, Jones has four finished of 12th or better and has never finished lower than 23rd. Jones has only led 2 laps at Darlington, the last two of the race he won, so him racking up dominator points may not happen here, but with his PD upside, I still think we can get the value we need.

Austin Cindric ($9,900)

Starting Position: 2nd

Cindric projects as the highest owned driver in this race so I don’t think he will be someone I’d used in GPP’s. He has dominator upside, but he has also never led a single lap at Darlington. If you are playing cash or SE I see Cindric as a solid play to pair with Gibbs, but in large field GPP’s I would fade him. If you are MME though, I could see having 10-15% exposure to him because of the dominator potential. Cindric has never finished better than 4th at this track and outside of his first race here where he crashed, he has never finished lower than 12th. I view Cindric as a safe play, but with limited upside

Other Options: AJ Allmendinger ($10,100 – P1), Justin Allgaier ($10,700 – P16), Michael Annett ($9,300 – P20), Noah Gragson ($9,700 – P5)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

JJ Yeley ($7,700)

Starting Position: 35th

Yeley is back in the #17, and severely underpriced at that, where he has been solid in all three of the races he has run in this season. Even in the races where Cody Ware ran it (outside of Daytona where he wrecked) the 17 has not finished worse than 25th. Yeley is my second favorite driver, actually more like a 1B, next to Ty Gibbs today. They are both a lock for cash games and SE tournaments.

Harrison Burton ($8,500)

Starting Position: 8th

Burton is one of my favorite GPP plays in the field today. I don’t see him picking up too much ownership starting from P8 but I think he could be a sleeper pick to win this race. Burton has only raced here at Darlington twice (both in 2020) and has two top-ten finishes. Looking at the most recent race here, last September, Burton ran all but one lap inside the top 15, and while he didn’t lead any laps he still finished 6th and had a great fantasy day. All of the Gibbs cars were solid at Darlington last year and that should continue on Saturday.

BJ McLeod ($7,400)

Starting Position: 38th

Do I expect McLeod to be chalky? Yes. Do I care? No. McLeod is a great driver who knows how to just drive his race and stay out of trouble. His price has the potential to scare some people off him, but I don’t see that happening. McLeod could easily be top 10 in DraftKings points when this race is all said and done. In seven Xfinity Series races at Darlington, McLeod has an average finish of 23.7 and has been running at the end in six. He isn’t going to dominate this race but he has top 20 potential and I really like this play today.

Other Options: Justin Haley ($8,700 – P4), Ryan Sieg ($8,900 – P11), Brett Moffitt ($8,200 – P13),Brandon Gdovic ($8,000 – P27) –I really like Gdovic for a top 20 today, Alex Labbe ($7,100 – P23)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Bayley Currey ($5,800) – P39: PD upside, great for cash games
Tanner Berryhill ($6,200) – P36: Another great upside play and is in good equipment. I expect a top 25, with top 20 upside on Saturday
Gray Gaulding ($5,500) – P37: Finished 15th in his only race here in 2020, has top 20 upside with attrition could be a top 15 car
Brandon Brown ($6,900) – P9: Brown is having his best season as a driver and will be very low-owned starting 9th. Don’t be afraid to run him in GPP’s. Brown has top 5 upside if things fall his way
Jeffrey Earnhardt ($6,100) – P28: Should be semi-low owned and has good PD upside
Josh Williams ($5,600) – P21: Nobody will play him but he is a great PP/$ play in this race
Landon Cassil ($6,800) – P19: Cassill has good results all season. GPP play only
Ryan Ellis ($5,000) – P33: Good car and a good driver. Top 30 car almost every week with top 20 upside
Joe Graf Jr. ($5,900) – P30: Had a promising start to the season, but a few bad weeks may keep his ownership down. I like him for a top 25 this week
Matt Jaskol ($6,000) – P40: Could be a good play starting last IF they have a sponsor. I Will post in discord if I see anything

Make sure to check in discord throughout the day on Saturday as I may update the value plays if I find out more info on sponsors and potential start and park drivers.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Truck Series Darlington 5/7/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Truck series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial as well to make sure you are ready and have an understanding of how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

This week NASCAR celebrates the past at one of its longest-standing tracks, Darlington! Welcome to NASCAR Throwback Weekend 2021! If you are a long-time fan of the sport you will see a bunch of familiar paint schemes that you haven’t seen in years. In all three series, we will see throwback paint schemes which will make for a fun trip down memory lane.

We start this weekend off with the Truck Series on Friday night for 200 miles of racing (147 laps). Last season was the first time the Truck Series came to Darlington since 2011. With such a large gap between races, we really only have one race to go on for track history. In 2020 we saw Sheldon Creed ($10,100) dominate this race but had issues late and ended up 18th. Ben Rhodes($9,200) won this race last season after only leading 4 laps, but he led the most important one.

As with every week, each tier of drivers is listed in order of preference

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

John Hunter Nemechek ($11,000)

Starting Position: 1st

Nemechek has been the most consistent driver in the Truck Series all season and that should continue on Friday. I honestly believe that Nemechek could lead over 100 laps in this race and win. Nemechek doesn’t have a great track history in the Cup and Xfinity Series, but that was in inferior equipment in those series. Now that he is in a KBM Toyota, arguably the best equipment in this series, Nemechek should be the favorite for this race.

Sheldon Creed ($10,100)

Starting Position: 15th

If anyone can push Nemechek as the top dominator in this race it would be the driver who dominated last year’s race in Creed. In 2020, Creed led 82 of 152 laps, but had some bad luck at the end and finished 18th. I think JHN wins, but Creed is a definite top 5 candidate. Because I think Nemechek leads the most laps, he is my favorite dominator, but Creed is a driver who can lead some laps and has the place differential upside to make this a great 1-2 dominator stack.

Derek Kraus ($9,000)

Starting Position: 20th

Kraus had a decent run at Darlington last season and ended up finishing 2nd after starting 13th. That 2nd may have been a little bit deceiving since Kraus only spent 38.2% of the race inside the top 15. Kraus has upside starting P20, and it doesn’t matter how many laps he runs inside the top 15, it’s just about where he finishes. If things fall his way, a top 10 is definitely in the cards for Kraus.

Other Options: Ben Rhodes ($9,200 – P4), Grant Enfinger ($10,700 – P17), Parker Kligerman ($10,400 – P36), Zane Smith ($9,600 – P3)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Timmy Hill ($7,200)

Starting Position: 26th

You have to be careful in which series you roster Timmy Hill, and the Truck Series is the one series I will roster him. Last season at Darlington, Hill had a good race and a quality finish. Hill came home with a top ten (9th) at Darlington in 2020. I wish we could get Hill for a few hundred dollars cheaper, but I think we will see much lower ownership on Hill this week and he could give you leverage on the field this week.

Bayley Currey ($8,600)

Starting Position: 38th

Currey is one of the best place differential plays on the slate. Like with Hill, I think Currey is a little overpriced, but he has incredible upside again this week. This is Currey’s second race in the number 44 truck that Brett Moffitt drove earlier this season. Niece Motorsports equipment isn’t the best in the series, but it is one of the better teams. Moffitt only had one finish lower than 25th on the season and that was because of handling issues. I think Currey is a lock for a top 20 and could pull a top 10 with attrition.

Todd Gilliland ($7,700)

Starting Position: 6th

Once again I believe Todd Gilliland will go practically unowned this week because of his starting spot. Gilliland has 3 straight top six finishes and has four total on the season. I know I always preach track history, but sometimes a hot driver that people are afraid to play is a great GPP play. In 2020 at Darlington, Gilliland came home with a seventh place finish after he started 15th.

Other Options: Tyler Ankrum ($8,200 – P16), Chandler Smith ($8,000 P8), Spencer Davis ($7,400 – P28)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

BJ McLeod ($6,500) P39: McLeod a good driver and can’t really hurt you starting 39th
Hailie Deegan ($4,800) P10: This is a risky play but could pay off. Deegan is super cheap and will help you afford three $10K+ drivers if you desire
Corey Heim ($6,900) P13: Heim is making his Truck Series debut but is having an incredible run in the ARCA Menards series this season. Heim is in Kyle Busch’s #51 so we know his truck will be fast.
Ryan Reed ($6,200) P19: Reed is now in the GMS #24 that Raphael Lessard vacated. Starts a littl higher then I would like, but he has top 15 upside in this truck
Erik Darnell ($5,000) P22: It’s been 13 years since Darnell was in a NASCAR Truck Series race, but he has decent equipment this week. I anticipate he could be semi-chalky so he may be better suited for cash or SE
Tate Fogleman ($6,100) P33: Fogleman is coming off two poor finishes, but Fogleman is too good to have too many more bad finishes. I think this week we get a top 25 from Fogleman
Spencer Boyd ($5,300) P34: Decent upside, basically a PD play at this price
Kris Wright ($5,100) P30: See above… another PD play
Carson Hocevar ($5,500) P14: Risky GPP play, has top 10 upside though
Cody Rohrbaugh ($5,900) P25: Minimal upside but if things fall his way a top 15 is definitely a possibility

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Premium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Kansas 5/2/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Yes, that is the real name of this race

One of the first things you will notice this week is the obscure and comical name this race has, so welcome to my breakdown for the Buschy McBusch Race 400! Yes, that is the real name of this race thanks to a fan vote by sponsor Busch Beer. Can you really expect anything less from the internet in 2021 though?

Kansas Speedway Breakdown

Kansas is a progressive banking 1.5-mile track that has very little to minimal tire wear. I will be focusing on those types of tracks when doing my breakdown, so just be prepared to read the words “low tire wear” numerous times throughout this article. Like I mentioned in discord last week after Talladega, we will WANT drivers starting towards the front this week.

There are plenty of place differential plays, but we will want drivers starting up front as well. In the last three Kansas races, eight different drivers have average finishes between 5th and 8.3. Last fall eight of the top ten finishers at Kansas started inside the top 10.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Brad Keselowski ($9,700)

Starting Position: 1st

Like I mentioned in the open, we want drivers starting towards the front and you don’t get much closer to the front than the polesitter. Keselowski is coming off a win at Talladega last week and is at another track he has a great history with. Over the last four races, Keselowski has three top 5’s, meanwhile, no other driver in the field has more than 2. Earlier this season at Las Vegas (a very similar type of track with low tire wear), Keselowski has the fastest total speed ranking and finished second. Keselowski should be fast on Sunday and will compete for the win again.

Denny Hamlin ($10,8000)

Starting Position: 20th

Denny is one of the best drivers at Kansas, and just in general as well. Hamlin has won two of the last three races at Kansas and has four top 5’s in his last 7. Dating back to 2020 at 1.5-mile tracks where tire wear is low, Hamlin has an average finish of 7.75 and has the 7th fastest total speed ranking. I don’t see Hamlin as a threat for the win this week, but he doesn’t need to starting from P20. If he can manage a top 5 and pick up some dominator points he will make value.

Kyle Larson ($11,300)

Starting Position: 32nd

Larson has been the best driver at mile and a half tracks this season, and even though he starts towards the rear of the field I think he can still manage to win this race and lead a ton of laps. In 2021 at 1.5-mile tracks, Larson has an average finish of 2.3, an average running position of 3.2, and has averaged leading 125.7 laps. Larson might be chalky because of his PD upside, but at his price, there are some good plays that are much cheaper.

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,000)

Starting Position: 15th

Truex is another driver who has a great track history at Kansas and should be someone competing for the win on Sunday. In his last eight races at Kansas, Truex has two wins, five top 5’s and has only finished lower than 9th once. Earlier this season at Las Vegas, another low tire wear track Truex finished 6th.

Ryan Blaney ($9,500)

Starting Position: 7th

Blaney earned his first win at a 1.5-mile track with low tire wear this season when he won at Atlanta. Last fall at Kansas, Blaney was one of the most dominant cars but had a misleading 7th place finish. In that race, Blaney finished 4th in stage 1, 3rd in the second stage, and had a 4.5 average running position. Blaney also had the third-best total speed ranking and the second-fastest green flag average speed.

Remaining top tier driver rankings:

Alex Bowman ($10,200) – P25
Chase Elliott ($10,400) – P17
Joey Logan ($11,100) – P29
Kevin Harvick ($9,100) – P4

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

William Byron ($8,800)

Starting Position: 2nd

Byron might be my favorite play in the field this weekend. This team has been great in practically every race this season. Since leaving Daytona the 24 team has not finished lower than 8th in any race and has earned dominator points in every one of those races as well. At 1.5-mile tracks this season, Byron has an average finish of 5.7 which is the second-best in the field. Byron is my pick to win this race and has a Hendrick Motorsports top 2 with Larson finishing 2nd behind him.

Ricky Stenhouse ($8,200)

Starting Position: 23rd

I promise I am not drunk (especially since I don’t drink), but Ricky Stenhouse is a viable cash/SE option this week. No, really, he is, I swear. Stenhouse and the 47 team have been a bright spot in NASCAR this season and he has done very well at these types of tracks this season. In his last 4 spring races at Kansas, he has three 11th place finishes and a 13th place. At 1.5-mile tracks in 2021, Stenhouse has finishes of 11th,12th, and 13th, needless to say, Stenhouse is a model of consistency at these types of tracks.

Christopher Bell ($8,000)

Starting Position: 8th

Bell is a good driver at these types of tracks and is a candidate for a top 10, and if things fall his way, a top 5. Over his last three races at 1.5-mile tracks, Bell has an average finish of 6.6, including his 7th place finish at Las Vegas earlier this season. Bell is averaging a top 10 finish since March (minus Bristol).

Austin Dillon ($7,500)

Starting Position: 6th

Dillon is one of the top GPP plays in the field, but is not a great option for SE or cash. While he has run well at 1.5-mile tracks with low tire wear he doesn’t have finishes that inspire a better than average outcome. In his last 13 races at similar tracks, Dillon has finished between 6th and 14th ten times. Dillon has an average finish of 16.6 in his last 8 Kansas races, which is worrisome but he has top 5 upside with how well he has driven this season. In a nutshell, play Austin at your own risk.

Other Options: Kyle Busch ($8,600 – P9), Matt DiBenedetto ($7,700 – P5), Ryan Newman ($7,400 – P14), Aric Almirola ($8,400 – P18)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Chris Buescher ($6,100) P16: It was a toss-up for me between Buescher and Reddick for the top spot in this tier, but I am leaning Buescher because of the salary savings. Buescher has also been really solid at 1.5-mile tracks in 2021 and a top 15 is definitely likely on Sunday
Tyler Reddick ($6,900) P11: Reddick will be running up against the wall all day on Sunday which could lead to disaster. In three Kansas races, Reddick has finished 13th and 9th, but did wreck last fall and come home 25th.
Austin Cindric ($6,700) P38: Finally, DK has priced Cindric at a price that he is actually a viable option. He is a mid-20’s at best option, but at this price, I can finally justify rostering him.
Ross Chastain ($6,500) P24: Chastain has been driving much better of late and has finished between 14th and 19th in his last in 6 of his last 8 races. At 1.5-mile tracks in 2021, Chastain has an 18th place average finish.
Ryan Preece ($5,600) P12: This tier is not great this week, but we will need some salary relief to get the tippy top-tier guys, and Preece is one guy I like for that. Preece manages to stay clean in most races and has run in the mid-teens all season at 1.5-mile tracks. We can expect a top 20 from Preece on Sunday
Anthony Alfred ($4,500) P22: I do NOT love this play, but once again, salary relief is the role for Alfredo on Sunday. If he can manage to finish around where he starts, he will be the top value play…but that’s a big if.
Daniel Suarez ($6,300) P21: Suarez has top 20 upside and will need to if we want him to make value.
Chase Briscoe ($6,000) P19: Upside is very limited with Briscoe, but he did race the truck race Saturday night so he has a feel for the track. I don’t love the play and I will probably have zero exposure, but he could surprise and get a top 20.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Truck Series Kansas 5/1

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Last season the Truck Series ran at Kansas three times, so we have plenty of data to go off, as do the teams and drivers who were here last year. In 2020, three different drivers won races at Kansas (Austin Hill, Brett Moffitt, & Matt Crafton) and none of the winners led more than 38 laps. Even though he didn’t win any of the three races, Zane Smith ($9,100 – P9) led the most laps with 104 in 2020. I really like Smith’s chances this weekend seeing with how well he did run at Kansas in 2020. He isn’t the top play on this slate because we do have a few Cup Series regulars jumping into trucks this weekend that could prove difficult for Smith to beat.

As with every week, each tier of drivers is listed in order of preference

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Grant Enfinger ($10,500)

Starting Position: 29th

Like I said there are a few Cup Series ringers in this race, but none of them have the upside that Enfinger does in my book. Enfinger hasn’t led a ton of laps in his six previous races at Kansas, but he does have consistency here. In six career Truck Series races at Kansas, Enfinger has never finished lower than 11th and has five top 10’s. Enfinger also has three straights top-five finishes at Kansas (all in 2020). Starting at P29 gives him the place differential upside for him to make value without picking up a lot of dominator points.

Kyle Busch ($15,000)

Starting Position: 2nd

Kyle is once again the most expensive driver in a Truck Series race, and rightfully so. Even though I don’t love Busch this week because of his enormous price tag and limited upside. Of course, Busch could lead 130 laps on Saturday night, but he could also lead 10 and finish second. We know what you’ll get with Kyle, so there isn’t really much I need to tell you. He is the top GPP play in my mind for this race.

Ross Chastain ($12,000 – P34)

Chase Briscoe ($11,500 – P30)

I lump these two together because I think they may break up the chalk a little. Both Chastain and Briscoe are in great spots and are in superb place differential spots on Saturday night. Honestly, I can’t even decide which one I prefer; it comes down to salary really. If you need the $500 to fit a better mid-tier or value driver in, go Briscoe. But if you are happy with your lineup and can fit Chastain, do it!

Sheldon Creed ($9,400)

Starting Position: 8th

Creed led 61 laps in the third Kansas race last season (most in the field) but ended up finishing second in that race. As the defending Truck Series champion, Creed has a target on his back this season and is coming off two poor performances but I really like Creed to get his 3rd top 5 and 4th top 10 this season on Saturday

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Matt Crafton ($8,700)

Starting Position: 12th

Matt Crafton may be from California, but Kansas may as well be his home away from home nowadays. Since 2013, Crafton has three wins in ten races, six top 5’s, and nine top 10’s. With the potential upside, Crafton has in this race, and where he starts in the field I believe he is underpriced but also may not be highly owned because I think people will do what they can to fit Kyle Busch in and won’t be able to afford Crafton.

Christian Eckes ($8,100)

Starting Position: 17th

Christian Eckes ran his first three Kansas races last season and did pretty well for himself in the KBM #18 Toyota. This season he is in the #98 ThorSport Toyota and should be able to do equally as well. Both he and Enfinger have driven this truck to quality finishes all season and it should not be any different on Saturday night. Last year at Kansas, Eckes did not finish lower than 13th in any of the three races and also had finishes of 6th and 2nd.

Jordan Anderson ($7,100)

Starting Position: 36th

Anderson is one of my favorite drivers to pair with Kyle in this race. He provides some salary relief as well as place differential upside. In his 8 races here, Anderson does have four top 20’s and has never finished lower than 30th.

Other Options: Tyler Ankrum ($7,800 – P13), Austin Hill ($8,900 – P7), Ben Rhodes ($8,300 – P3), Spencer Davis ($7,000 – P19)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Tanner Gray ($5,900) – P18: DK made Gray extreme chalk this week at this stupidly low price
Todd Gilliland ($6,900) – P6: Gilliland should come in at low ownership because of his starting position
CJ McLaughlin ($6,000) – P40: Starts dead last and is in a good truck. Great PD upside with a top 25 possible.
Tate Fogleman ($5,500) – P35: Another way too cheap driver for his upside. Top 20 possible, top 25 more likely.
Timmy Hill ($6,700) – P25: Always has food equipment in the Truck Series, top 20 upside
Kris Wright ($4,700) – P24: Decent GPP upside for cheap
Chase Purdy ($5,600) – P23: Had two top 15 finishes at Kansas last season
Dawson Cram ($6,400) – P28: A little expensive, but has top 25 upside
Ryan Reed ($5,800) – P33: Risky, but a decent GPP play for salary relief
Bayley Currey ($6,800) – P26: Good driver in ok equipment. I don’t love the Niece trucks, but he can get a top 20, maybe top 15 with attrition out of this truck.

4 years ago 0 comments

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NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Talladega 4/25/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Talladega history:

This week the Cup Series heads south to Talladega Superspeedway! This race will get crazy, unlike the Xfinity Series on Saturday. It will be unpredictable and there is a good chance we will get a last-lap pass before it’s all over. In 2020 we had a last-lap pass at both of the races at Talladega so why not go for 3 in a row on Sunday. We have seen crazier things, see Carl Edwards jogging to the finish line. Don’t believe me, check out the video below from the NASCAR Youtube channel:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7lfK7IOmk4

Lineup Construction:

When it comes to building lineups for me on Sunday I will focus on loading up on the value tier and drivers starting from 25th place and back. Below is how I plan on building most of my lineups on Sunday.

1 driver starting P15 or higher (GPP ONLY, none for Cash or SE)
1-2 drivers starting from P16-P25
3-4 drivers starting from P26 and back (4-5 for Cash or SE contests)

You will have some salary leftover if you build your lineups this way, but that is expected and necessary generally. In the past, at Superspeedway races, we would see optimal lineups with as little as $800 leftover, but as much as $3.1K leftover as well. Do NOT be afraid to leave salary on the table this weekend. I know as DFS players we are programmed to get the most we can from our “budget” but this is not one of those races.

This week, and going forward, I am going to break down the dominator and mid-tier in order of how I rank the drivers in this tier as opposed to in salary order

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Chase Elliott ($10,300)

Starting Position: 8th

Elliott is one of the top Superspeedway drivers in the field on Sunday and is coming off a 2nd place finish at Daytona. Starting 8th and with the potential to win this race, Elliott offers up some place differential. Over the four Superspeedway races in 2020, Elliot ranked 1st in overall speed and led 41 laps in the second Talladega race.

Team Penske

Joey Logano ($9,800 – P2), Ryan Blaney ($10,100 – P7), Brad Keselowski ($10,500 – P10)

Both Logano and Blaney are two of the favorites to win this race and I plan on having some exposure to both. Keselowski is a good Superspeedway driver but has had some problems at Talladega since his last win there in 2018. Blaney was dominant last season leading 73 laps in the two races and winning the first Talladega race. Logano is another great superspeedway driver having the 2nd best finish and average running position at this track since 2017 and is a three-time winner.

Denny Hamlin ($10,000)

Starting Position: 1st

Hamlin starts on the pole is only viable in large field GPP’s on Sunday. In his last 5 Talladega races, Hamlin has finished top 4 in four of those races including his win last fall here. This year at Daytona, Hamlin finished 5th after leading 98 laps and winning both stages.

Other Options: Alex Bowman ($9,000 – P5), Kyle Larson ($9,400 – P12)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Ricky Stenhouse ($8,500)

Starting Position: 17th

It’s how he races at Superspeedways that earned Ricky the name “Wrecky” Stenhouse but he is actually one of the best Superspeedway drivers. Talladega has been where Stenhouse shines with an average finish here of 4.2 since 2016 and he has finished in the top 5 40% in his career here.

Ryan Newman ($7,600)

Starting Position: 28th

If you are playing cash games or single entry on Sunday, Ryan Newman is a lock for those lineups. Starting 28th, he offers you some outstanding place differential. Newman will generally run in the back of the field throughout the race and then race his way into the top 10 before it’s all said and done.

Harrison Burton ($7,900)

Starting Position: 39th

Burton starts next to last in the #96 Gaunt Bros Toyota. This is going to be a 2021 Toyota (usually a 2020) which makes me think they will be getting help from Joe Gibbs Racing this week. Burton is another driver who will be very popular and is a great cash game/single entry play.

William Byron ($8,000)

Starting Position: 4th

Byron stats high and is another GPP only play, but he does have some upside here with his recent history at Superspeedways. In 2020, Byron won the second Daytona race and had an average finish of 7.5 at similar tracks. As long as Byron can avoid all the potential wrecks here he could come home with the win.

Aric Almirola ($8,700)

Starting Position: 14th

Almirola is a Superspeedway stud and is a former winner here at Talladega (2018 – Fall). In eight of his last nine races at similar tracks, Almirola has finished in the top 10 and like with all the other drivers listed has the potential for another if he can avoid the wrecks.

Other Options: Austin Dillon ($7,700 – P11), Kurt Busch ($8,300 – P15), Bubba Wallace ($7,000 – P24), Erik Jones ($7,500 – P22), Matt DiBenedetto ($8,200 – P13),

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

I can really make a case for any driver in this tier, but below are just a few of the ones I like the most.

Ryan Preece ($6,400) – P29: Preece is a solid superspeedway driver and is coming off a 6th place finish at Daytona. In his four SS races, Preece has an average finish of 11.5
Tyler Reddick ($6,500) – P20: Reddick is a bit risky of a play, but he did finish top 10 here last fall and has won in the Xfinity Series at Talladega
Ross Chastain ($6,100) – P18: Chastain finished 7th at Daytona and has 3 finishes of 12th or better in his 6 superspeedway races
Corey Lajoie ($5,600) – P26: It seems every Cup Series race at Superspeedways Corey Lajoie manages a good result. Lajoie finished 28th at the last Talladega race, but in his previous 3 races he had finishes of 16th, 7th, and 11th
Justin Haley ($5,900) – P34: We all know that Haley has had great success at the Xfinity level at Talladega, and even has a win in the Cup Series at Daytona. If we can get a top 20 out of Haley that would be great
Kaz Grala ($5,800) – P38: Grala is in the Kaulig #16 on Sunday. Starting 38th gives him plenty of upside and makes him a popular play. He is a cash game lock for me.
Anthony Alfredo ($5,700) – P30: Maybe this will be Alfredo’s week? If the attrition goes his way and he manages to avoid the wrecks a top 20 could be in his future.

As far as the drivers priced $5.4K and lower, you can take a shot if you want, but do so with caution. They will need some help from other drivers wrecking out and for their cars to function properly to give you value. I may throw one or two into my lineups because, hey you never know.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Talladega 4/24/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

This week the NASCAR Xfinity Series is in Talladega for the second Superspeedway race of the season. I’m not going to lie, I hate these races. They are impossible to predict and are generally accident-filled. My first suggestion for these types of races is to play light. I usually play 5-6 lineups, but I will be scaling it down to 1-2 lineups because it just doesn’t make sense financially to spend all that money. If I do decide to make multiple lineups it will be to play $5-$10 in $1 or $2 contests.

How I build Superspeedway lineups

I will do my best to give you some of the plays who tend to fare well at these type of tracks and who actually has some upside in the field. One thing that I will hammer into you over this weekend is the fact that you will have salary left over, a lot of it. You do not, nor should you, spend all $50K because the best way to get on the right side of the cash line or even have a chance at a takedown will be to load up with 4-5 drivers starting 25th or lower. I know as a DFS player it is not in our nature to leaves thousands on the table, but when you look at optimal lineups throughout the years at superspeedways, it just makes sense. Usually, you have anywhere from $1.2K to over $3K salary remaining in the optimal lineups at these types of tracks. I can almost guarantee I will have $1K or more salary leftover in every lineup I build this week.

When building your lineups try to hold to this type of build

1 driver starting inside the top 15

1-2 drivers from 15th-25th

3-4 drivers starting 26th or lower

Yes, you will have salary leftover and that is ok.!

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kaulig Racing:

AJ Allmendinger ($10,600 – P11), Justin Haley ($9,200 – P5), Jeb Burton ($8,200 – P9)

Looking back to the two 2020 Talladega races you notice that Justin Haley swept them both. We also see that they had 5 top ten finishes with their 3 cars in the two races. With how well these cars ran I definitely have interest in running 1-2 of these cars in each lineup this week. Last season Jeb Burton raced the #8 for JRM, but he also had a good day in his one Talladega race. Burton came home 3rd in the June race with 2 fastest laps and 8 laps led. With these races being short, we are not chasing dominator poins but inteast finishing position and place differential. I think with all three of these drivers outside the top 5 they offer up limited PD upside, but they do have the potential to finish top 5 which is what we look for to pair with our place differential drivers from the back.

Austin Cindric ($9,600)

Starting Position: 1st

Cindric is a good superspeedway driver and even though he is on the pole for Saturday’s race, he has the potential to win. If you are playing one lineup, then maybe stay away from Cindric because he can kill your chances if he wrecks early. Typically the early wrecks come from the rear of the field but that’s not to say it can’t happen upfront. Last season in the October Dega race, Cindric wrecked out 75 laps in, but before that, he had finished top 5 in his previous two Talladega races.

Other Options (in order of preference): Noah Gragson ($10,000 – P4), Ryan Sieg ($9,800 – P17), Brett Moffitt ($9,000 – P17)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Jason White ($8,400)

Starting Position: 40th

White could be the chalkiest play of this tier, luckily DK priced him up some to try and limit his ownership but not enough in my opinion. White managed to avoid the chaos at Daytona and finished 10th after starting 40th earlier this year. I will probably have close to 100% ownership on White this week because he can’t really hurt you and if he is able to escape the carnage he should definitely find his way into the optimal lineup.

Alex Labbe ($7,500)

Starting Position: 30th

Labbe, like White, is too cheap for his upside in this race. Last season Labbe finished top 10 in both Talladega races and has never finished lower than 25th in four races here. If Labbe can navigate the wrecks, a top 10 is definitely a possibility for the #36 on Saturday.

Brandon Brown ($7,600)

Starting Position: 18th

In eight races at superspeedways since 2019, Brandon Brown has only one finish lower than 18th (26th at Daytona in 2020). Brown also has four top 10 finishes in those eight races and an 11th place finish. Brown is another driver who seems to know his way around these superspeedways and has some good place differential upside on Saturday.

Other Options: Landon Cassill ($7,100 – P32), Josh Berry ($8,100 – P6), Harrison Burton ($8,500 – P3), Ty Dillon ($7,900 – P16),

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Jeffrey Earnhardt ($6,300) – P33
Matt Mills ($5,900) – P36
Mason Massey ($6,600) – P31
Timmy Hill ($5,000) – P27
Ryan Vargas ($6,500) – P39
Natalie Decker ($6,000) – P38
Caesar Bacarella ($6,800) – P28
Josh Williams ($5,600) – P15
Jesse Little ($5,600) – P34
David Starr ($5,200) – P26
Gray Gaulding ($5,300) – P24

Make sure to check in discord throughout the day on Saturday as I may update the value plays if I find out more info on sponsors and potential start and park drivers.

4 years ago 0 comments

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NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Richmond 4/18

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

We are back with another short flat race track in the state of Virginia this weekend. After a fun, exciting, and profitable race weekend in Martinsville last week the NASCAR Cup series moves north to Richmond. Last season at Richmond it was a caution free race (outside of stage breaks) but I don’t see that happening again this weekend. One unusual thing we saw last season was that six of the top eight DraftKings point scorers started inside the top 10. This is definitely something to keep in mind when building your lineups for Sundays race.

This week, and going forward, I am going to break down the dominator and mid-tier in order of how I rank the drivers in this tier as opposed to in salary order

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,400)

Starting Position: 1st

*** GPP CORE PLAY ***

Last week we saw Truex come on late and earn his second win of the season, his first coming at Phoenix a track very similar to Richmond. Truex led 64 laps at Phoenix this season and over the last four races at short flat tracks Truex has a win (2021 Phoenix) three top 5’s and a 4th place average finish. Since 2018 Truex has yet to finish lower than 3rd here and has won 2 of the last 3 races at Richmond. In 6 of the last 8 races at Richmond Truex has led 109 or more laps and has an average finish of 1.8 in his last 4 races here. If you can’t tell, I LOVE Truex this week!

Joey Logano ($10,600)

Starting Position: 5th

If anyone can take Martin Truex down this week, it might just be Logano. Joey Logano is a two-time Richmond winner who has been one of the most dominant drivers at this track over the years. Since 2014, Logano has finished top 10 in 11 of 13 races and top 15 in all 13 races. Since the start of last season, Logano has been top 4 in every race at this track type in total speed, including being the fastest car at Phoenix this season.

Kyle Larson ($10,300)

Starting Position: 6th

Larson has already had plenty of success here in lesser equipment, so there is no doubt in my mind that he should have a good day here on Sunday. Over the last 5 races this season, Larson ranks 5th overall in total speed (he’d be top 3 if you take out Bristol: Dirt). Larson does have a win here and has finished no worse than 7th in 5 of his last 6 races at Richmond.

Chase Elliott ($9,700)

Starting Position: 3rd

*** CASH CORE PLAY ***

Elliott is underpriced on both sites this week and will most likely be semi-chalky. This is one of the few tracks that Elliott has never won at, but Sunday could be his day. Elliott has three top 5’s in his last five Richmond races though. We all know how well Elliott did at Phoenix last season when he won the last race and the championship, he also came from the rear of the field to finish 5th earlier this season at Phoenix. I think Elliot is a dark horse candidate to unseat the Richmond regulars and get his win.

Ranking the remaining top tier drivers:

Denny Hamlin ($11,000 – P2) – We can pretty much play Hamlin every week. He will lead laps on Sunday and could finally get to victory lane this season
Brad Keselowski ($12,000 – P20) – *** CASH CORE PLAY *** Keselowski is another great Richmond driver and should compete for the win. Keselowski let 192 laps on his way to winning this race last fall
Kyle Busch ($10,000 – P10) – Busch is another great play for Sunday and is the only top driver who raced in the Truck Series race so he knows how the track is running. We could see a top 5 from Busch on Sunday
Kevin Harvick ($9,400 – P9) – Harvick and the entire SHR team have not had a good season. I need to see them, especially Harvick, perform well before I will roster them, especially Harvick.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Austin Dillon ($7,600)

Starting Position: 11th

*** GPP CORE PLAY ***

Dillon is another driver who has been very consistent when it comes to Richmond. Dillon has finished top 6 In three of his last four races at Richmond including last season. In 2020, Dillon finished 4th after leading 4 laps and had an average run position of 5.8.

Alex Bowman ($8,800)

Starting Position: 24th

Bowman has great upside on Sunday starting P24 even though he doesn’t have a great past here. Last season’s race here at Richmond Bown has his career-best finish at this track when he came home13th. Bowman isn’t a core GPP play, but the upside seems limited, so I wouldn’t consider Bowman as a core play this week.

William Byron ($8,500)

Starting Position: 4th

Byron is one of the best drivers when it comes to speed this season, but most people may not realize this. In 2021, Byron ranks third in the last five races when it comes to total speed rankings. Byron was a top ten car according to the speed rankings, and it showed when he finished 8th. I think we need a top 5 from Byron for him to make value, but I think that is very possible.

Other Options: Christopher Bell ($7,800), Matt DiBenedetto ($8,000), Tyler Reddick ($7,200, Kurt Busch ($8,300), Erik Jones ($7,600)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Ricky Stenhouse ($6,200) – P14 *** CASH CORE PLAY*** I think Stenhouse is underpriced this week. He isn’t great at Richmond usually, but he is having a great season and could get to a top 10
Daniel Suarez ($6,600) – P27 *** GPP CORE PLAY *** Suarez has been a bright spot in the series the past few weeks. At Phoenix earlier, Suarez finished 21st, but his team has seemed to figure something out and has top 20 potential this week.
Ross Chastain ($6,000) – P18: Chastain finished 18th at Phoenix this season and was 22nd in total speed ranking. I think Chastain is cheap and has some small PD upside
Michael McDowell ($5,800) – P23: McDowell has come back down to earth after his early-season run. Even with that being said, I think a top 15 is possible with attrition
Justin Haley ($5,200) – P34: Haley is in a spot where he can give you a plus 10 PD on Sunday. At Phoenix, Haley finished 24th and has been averaging a 26.6 finish this season.
Chris Buescher ($6,100) – P12: I wish Buescher was cheaper or starting further back but it is what it is. I think Buescher is probably at best around a 15th place car this week.
Ryan Preece ($5,600) – P25: With attrition Preece could finish top 20, but a low to mid 20’s finish is more likely. Over the last year, Preece averages a 22.5 finish at these track types
Corey Lajoie ($5,700) – P36: Do I love Lajoie, no. Will I have some exposure? Most likely. I think Lajoie can finish top 30 and provide some value.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Truck Series Richmond 4/17

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Last time we saw the Truck Series they were on the dirt at Bristol, luckily they are back on pavement and this race should be more predictable. This race is typically a two dominator race because we have 250 laps to pick up points, but this is a Kyle Busch ($16,500) race. With Kyle running this race we could see him leading the majority of laps. Now, at this high price and the limited place differential upside I can see a reason to fade Kyle this weekend. I will probably be underweight on Busch this weekend. There is another driver who has similar equipment to Kyle and has better place differential upside.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

John Hunter Nemecheck ($11,500)

Starting Position: 18th

If you take out the dirt race (and I do), Nemechek has not finished lower than seventh this season. Nemechek drives for Kyle Busch Motorsports and was able to hold his own against his owner a few weeks back at Atlanta he came home third behind Busch. JHN has never raced a truck at Richmond, but in 21 races at similar tracks (Martinsville, Loudon & Phoenix) he has 1 win, 8 top 5’s, and 12 top 10 finishes. I will have plenty of exposure to Nemechek this week as I think he is the real main threat to Kyle this weekend and could lead some laps and has that PD upside we like.

Zane Smith ($9,800)

Starting Position: 6th

Last season Smith led 44 laps at Richmond and had 8 fastest laps on his way to finishing 11th. Smith spent the entire race running inside the top 15 last season as well and had an average running position of 6.1. In 2020 at comparable tracks (Martinsville & Phoenix), Smith had top 5 finishes in both races and led 68 laps in those two races. Also, if you believe in these types of things, Smith posted a picture on Twitter of himself finding a four-leaf clover this week, so maybe he has some luck heading into Saturday’s race.

Sam Mayer ($9,200)

Starting Position: 40th

Sam Mayer is one of the best up-and-coming drivers in NASCAR and is extremely unpriced this week. Mayer will be chalk this week and I am ok with eating some of that chalk because the upside is there with him. Mayer is not in the best truck he’s ever been in, but he is so good he can make the most of it. Last season in this race, Mayer finished 19th after starting from P25 but he ran as high as fourth place. I can see Mayer coming home with a top 10 this week and potentially picking up some fastest lap dominator points.

Other Options: Grant Enfinger ($9,500 – P3) – Enfinger dominated this race some last season on his way to a win. Sheldon Creed ($10,500 – P9)

Here is a special FADE play for this week:

Tyler Ankrum ($11,000 – P30) You may be tempted to play Ankrum for the place differential, but he and his team have just been horrid this season. I need to see something from this truck before I can consider using him this season. Ankrum has not finished higher than 17th in 2021 and has negative fantasy points in 3 of 5 races.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Matt Crafton ($8,700)

Starting Position: 7th

Crafton turned out a solid performance in this same race last season leading to a second-place finish. In 2020, Crafton led 25 laps, had 27 fastest laps, had an average run position of 7.3 in this race. Crafton hasn’t really led many laps this season, which is normal for Crafton. I like him for GPP’s because I believe the #88 doesn’t garner much ownership this weekend and has top 5 potential.

Ben Rhodes ($8,300)

Starting Position: 1st

Kyle Busch will most likely take over this race at some point, but before he does Ben Rhodes should lead the majority of the early laps. Last season at Richmond, Rhodes led the most laps with 66 and also had 39 fastest laps. I know he is on the pole, and generally, we stay away, but Rhodes has been the best overall truck this season and I think he ends up top 5.

Timmy Hill ($7,000)

Starting Position: 34th

Hill has only run one race this season, Daytona RC, and he finished 9th after starting from P34. Last season at Richmond, Hill started 15th but came home in P9. Hill didn’t lead any laps, but he did have 3 fastest laps. I think Hill could be a very popular option on Sunday because of his price and starting position.

Other Options: Todd Gilliland ($7,200 – P8), Chandler Smith ($7,900 – P23), Derek Kraus ($8,500 – P19), Spencer Davis ($7,400 – P25)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Ryan Reed ($5,300) – P39
Jett Noland ($6,800) – P36
Danny Bohn ($5,700) – P28
Howie Disavino ($5,200) – P35
Tate Fogleman ($4,900) – P24
Carson Hocevar ($5,500) – P13
Kris Wright ($4,800) – P22
Keith McGee ($4,500) – P32
Josh Reaume ($5,100) – P37
Dawson Cram ($6,300) – P31

4 years ago 0 comments

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NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Martinsville 4/10

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

NASCAR is back after a week off for the Easter holiday last weekend. This week we head to Martinsville, Virginia, and the circuit’s oldest track. This is a slow, short track that is pretty much two drag strips attached to two shallow banked turns. This is a 2-3 dominator race on Saturday with there being a 500 lap race.

Last season five drivers swept the top 6 positions and seven drivers swept the top 10 positions. Nobody has been better at Martinsville than the Penske Fords over the past few seasons. I will have plenty to say about the Penske cars in this article, especially Brad Keselowski. There is also the narrative that the drivers who call the Xfinity/Truck race the day before the Cup race win (Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano won the previous two races). So, if you believe in this narrative (Brian Tulloch to name one person), keep an eye on Austin Dillon and Ryan Blaney to win this race.

This week, and going forward, I am going to break down the dominator and mid-tier in order of how I rank the drivers in this tier as opposed to in salary order

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Brad Keselowski ($11,000)

Starting Position: 10th

Keselowski might as well be collecting rent from the other cars in the field because he owns Martinsville. In his last 10 races at Martinsville, Keselowski has TEN top 10’s and NINE top 5 finishes. Keselowski has to be one of the favorites to win this race and should be a lock for a top 5. In the Spring race here in 2019 Keselowski dominated by leading 446 of 500 laps and won this race. Brad knows his way around this track and will be tough to beat on Saturday night.

Chase Elliott ($11,400)

Starting Position: 5th

Elliott was the most dominant car at this race in the fall last season leading 236 laps on the way to the win. Not only did Elliott lead the most laps in the fall, but he also led the field in fastest laps with 110. Elliott has to be another favorite to win this race on Saturday night. We only need to weigh the price tag and dominator point upside to see if he can make value. I believe that Elliott will lead a good amount of the 500 laps in this race and will crush his value.

Martin Truex Jr. ($12,000)

Starting Position: 7th

I will start by saying I do not love the price for Truex, but I think his incredibly high salary could keep his ownership down for this race. Truex does have great track history here at Martinsville, including last fall when he led 129 laps and had 75 fastest laps. Truex has a late-race pit stop that torpedoed his shot at the win, so pay no attention to his finish for this race. If you don’t factor in the race last fall, Truex has an average finish of 3.2 at this track since 2017.

Joey Logano ($10,700)

Starting Position: 1st

Logano is coming of the win at Bristol two weeks ago and has to be considered to compete for the victory on Saturday night. There is this weird stat that shows since 2015 when Logano is on the pole at Martinsville he has an average finished of 22.75, but when he starts elsewhere in the field he has a 5th place average finish. Do with that what you will, but I am not scared off of Logano because of that. In 2020 at Martinsville, Logano had the fastest green flag speed in the Spring race and the 4th best speed in the Fall. If he can hold off Hamlin, I think we could see a lot of the early laps led by Logano on Saturday night.

Kyle Busch ($9,8000)

Starting Position: 12th

Busch is underpriced in my opinion for his upside in this race. I hope people just don’t play him because of this narrative that he can’t hack it anymore. Martinsville is one of Kyle’s favorite and best tracks with nine top 10’s and eight top 5’s in his last 11 races at Martinsville. Busch is also a two-time winner at Martinsville and is my pick to win this race.

Ranking the remaining top tier drivers:

Denny Hamlin ($10,400) – P2: Hamlin has the best speed ranking on the season and is also a 5 time winner here at Martinsville.
Ryan Blaney ($10,100) – P4: Blaney finished runner up in both 2020 Martinsville races.
Kyle Larson ($11,700) – P19: Larson has amazing upside starting P19, but he doesn’t have a great history here. I think Larson is a contender for the top10 this week and offers some PD upside.
Kevin Harvick ($9,600) – P9: Harvick is not one of the drivers I plan on rostering because I don’t think he finishes much higher than his starting position.
Alex Bowman ($9,200)) – P20: Bowman has great PD upside and has three finishes of 7th or better in his last 4

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

William Byron ($8,700)

Starting Position: 3rd

Byron is one of the teams running the best in 2021 and already has a win. At Martinsville in the fall 2020 race, Byron had a car with top 10 speed, but with about 60 laps remaining he got into the wall when he cut down a tire and finished 35th. Byron had the 11th best total speed ranking and 12th best green flag speed

Kurt Busch ($8,900)

Starting Position: 21st

Kurt Busch is another solid place differential play in the field on Saturday night. Busch is another multi-time winner at Martinsville who has been clicking off some great finishes recently. Since 2018, Kurt has an average finish of 8.2 and an average running position of 9.7 as well as finishing between 5th and 12th in every race.

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,800)

Starting Position: 22nd

DiBenedetto had some really poor finishes at Martinsville, but last season that changed. DiBenedetto had some of that Penske greatness here rub off on him when he finished with two top 10’s. After a poor start to the 2021 season, DiBenedetto and the 21 team are improving weekly and is one of my top place differential plays on this slate.

Bubba Wallace ($7,300)

Starting Position: 25th

Martinsville is one of Wallace’s best tracks, especially over since 2019. In his last four races at “The Paper Clip”, Wallace has an average finishing position of 15.5. These finishes were in the #43, and now that he has JGR equipment which could improve his finish.

Other Options: Christopher Bell ($8,400 – P23), Austin Dillon ($7,100 – P18), Aric Almirola ($8,100 – P31) — Almirola is my favorite PD play in this race., Tyler Reddick ($7,500 – P13)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Chris Buescher ($6,400) – P15: Buescher has finished 12th or 13th in 3 of his last 5 Martinsville races. His team has shown some great speed this season and a top 10 isn’t out of the realm of possibilities.
Ricky Stenhouse ($5,800) – P6: Do I wish Stenhouse was starting further back? Of course, but that won’t scare me off him. I think he goes practically unowned which makes me like him even more
Erik Jones ($6,600) – P16: The 43 team has looked good so far this season and a top 15 is a real possibility this season
Michael McDowell ($5,500) – P14: McDowell is cheap enough that he can make value with a top 20 finish on Saturday, especially at his bargain price on FanDuel
Corey Lajoie ($5,200) – P34: Lajoie has an avg finish of 20.3 in his last 3 Martinsville starts
Ross Chastain ($6,300) – P27: Chastain hasn’t been great a Martinsville, but that was in subpar equipment. His CGR Chevy should easily help him finish with a top 20 this week.
Ryan Newman ($6,800) – P8: Newman, like Stenhouse, starts a little high up but he has top 10 upside and should make for a great GPP play.
Anthony Alfredo ($5,300) – P35: The combo of starting in the back and his low price makes Alfredo one of the safest plays in this tier. I really like him to help you get 3 dominators in your lineups
Ryan Preece ($5,600) – P17: Preece will need some attrition to have a good night but it’s not impossible. Preece is a GPP play only
Chase Briscoe ($6,100) – P24: Briscoe ran well here last fall in the Xfinity race, and has finished between 18th and 23rd since the series left Daytona

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