NASCAR DFS

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

This week we are in stark contrast from last week’s 600-mile race as the Cup Series heads to wine country for the Toyota/Save Mart 350 from Sonoma Raceway. Last week I preached dominators and getting the lap leaders into your builds, this week not so much. With only 90 laps we are not so concerned with stacking 3 dominators, instead, you need to look for place differential plays and finishing positions. I will be looking for a mix of drivers starting towards the front of the field and place differential plays. Four of the last five winners at Sonoma have started between 8th-12th, because of this I do not recommend loading up on 4-5 place differential plays as tempting as it may be.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,900)

Starting Position: 19th

Truex is a 3-time Sonoma winner and is one of the best road course racers on the circuit, even though he didn’t have a great day at COTA two weeks ago. We all know Truex has the skill and upside to win this race, but he has not had a good race in three weeks. I think this week is the week Truex breaks out of his slump and earns a top 5. Truex is one of the few drivers in the higher price tiers that aren’t starting towards the front that I want to use this week.

Chase Elliott ($10,500)

Starting Position: 2nd

Elliot is the best road course racer in NASCAR currently and is my pick to win this race, his first win at Sonoma. In 2019, when NASCAR was last here, Elliott definitely had a car good enough to win, but his engine blew up on lap 60. Elliott has the third-fastest speed ranking in that race. Outside of that Sonoma race, Elliott has won six of the last nine road course races.

Kurt Busch ($9,100)

Starting Position: 30th

Busch is not having a good year, to say the least, but his best finish on the year did come at a rod course this season. At the Daytona Road Course, Busch finished 4th and then ran well at COTA, but had a disappointing result. Kurt has not finished lower than 13th in the last nine races at Sonoma and has seven top 10’s, four top 5’s, and a win in that stretch. I do not love this play but it’s hard to dispute his upside for his salary as Busch projects as the top Fpts/$ play on this slate. I will probably have a lot of Busch on Sunday but I am not happy about it.

Joey Logano ($10,100)

Starting Position: 13th

Logano is a really solid road course performer of late but it seems to go overlooked, even by myself. I know I mentioned race winners coming from starting positions 8-12 in 4 of the last 5, but Logano is on the fringe of those positions and I think he could contend for a win here. Logano has five straight top 10’s at road courses, and in his last three road courses, he has finished 3rd or better.

Remaining Top Tier Options:

• Kyle Busch ($10,300 – P5): Busch has been great at Sonoma over the last five races with a win and an average finish of 4th.
• Kyle Larson ($9,7000 – P1): Larson hasn’t had much success at Sonoma but that was not with his current team. This #5 team has been dominant all season and should contend for the win on Sunday
• Denny Hamlin ($9,900 – P4): Hamlin has finished top five in 8 of his last 12 road course races and should factor in for a top 5 on Sunday.
• William Byron ($9,500 – P3): Byron is a good RC racer and should earn another top 10 on Sunday. This team has been running great races all season and in his last 5 road course races, Byron has finished worse than 11th once.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Kevin Harvick ($8,900)

Starting Position: 8th

Harvick is a former Sonoma winner (2017) and would’ve had two wins but pit strategy cost him that win in 2018 where he ended up 2nd. In his last five Sonoma races, Harvick has never finished lower than 6th and has an average finishing position of 3.8.

Christopher Bell ($8,400)

Starting Position: 20th

Christopher Bell has been a solid performer at road courses over his career, and Joe Gibbs cars have also done traditionally well at Sonoma as well. Bell has never raced here so that is a slight worry, but with iRacing nowadays he can have some test runs here that will give him some idea of how the course runs. Bell also has teammates who have all had success here which will definitely help. I think Bell could be a sneaky top 5 pick on Sunday.

Ross Chastain ($7,700)

Starting Position: 29th

Chastain is one of the top upside plays in this race and his salary fits nicely with the top tier guys as well. I will have plenty of exposure to Chastain on Sunday and not feel bad about it at all. Chastain only has one race here at Sonoma (33rd) and was not in good equipment, now that he is in the CGR #42 he should have a much better result. Don’t rule out a top 10 on Sunday, but a more realistic finish is in the mid-teens.

Other Options: Michael McDowell ($7,600 – P21), Alex Bowman ($8,700 – P7), Tyler Reddick ($8,000 – P10), Chris Buescher ($7,200 – P12), Cole Custer ($7,500 – P23)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Chase Briscoe ($6,900) – P25: Briscoe ran the ARCA West race here on Saturday night and dominated by leading all 51 laps on his way to victory lane. Briscoe has been a solid road course racer at every level and a top 15 is where I predict he ends up on Sunday
2. Ryan Preece ($6,800) – P27: Prior to 2020 Preece did not have great road course history, but in the past two seasons that has changed. Preece is having the best season of his career and I think Preece could finish in the top 15 play on Sunday.
3. Ryan Newman ($6,300) – P24: Newman has four finishes of 11th or better in his last 6 Sonoma races. A top 20 is very likely for Newman on Sunday but don’t rule out a top 10 with attrition.
4. Daniel Suarez ($6,400) – P16: Suarez has raced at Sonoma 3 times and has an average finish of 16th. If not for a pit road mistake in 2019 Suarez was in line for a top 10, but came home 17th instead.
5. Anthony Alfredo ($5,800) – P28: Alfredo is another driver making his debut at Sonoma but he has performed well at road courses in 2021. At the Daytona road course, Alfredo finished 22nd, and at COTA he came home 18th.
6. Ricky Stenhouse ($6,100) – P14: Stenhouse has finished between 15th and 22nd at all seven road course races since 2019 and has an average finishing position of 18th
7. Garrett Smithley ($5,000) – P34: Smithley is not going to compete for the win but his best finishes this season have come at road courses (27th and 28th). I don’t know how much Smithley I will use, but he should be reserved for those doing MME, not cash or SE really.
8. Scott Heckert ($4,800) – P35: Heckert is a road course ringer, but he isn’t expected to finish much higher than where he starts. I don’t think he is playable if building one lineup, but if you are MME then he should find his way into 10-12% of your builds
9. Ben Rhodes ($5,400) – P31: Rhodes is taking over for Justin Haley this week and is a respectable road course driver. Earlier this season in the truck series Rhodes won at the Daytona RC and finished 10th at COTA. Do NOT expect similar results on Sunday but a top 25 is definitely possible.
10. James Davison ($5,600) – P32: Davison is a road course guy, but like with Smithley, Heckert, and Rhodes he is only an option for those doing MME.

Thank you for reading my weekly NASCAR DFS Pit Stop articles and make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

This weekend is one of the Crown Jewel events on the NASCAR schedule, the Coca-Cola 600 from Charlotte Motor Speedway. The Coca-Cola 600 is the longest race of the year that starts at 6 pm local time in daylight and ends some 4+ hours later under the lights. This race is a test of endurance for not just the drivers, but the teams, and even those of us watching from home and in the stands.

Last season at this race Brad Keselowski ($9,700) won this race while only leading 21 laps. In this race there four different drivers led at least 38 laps, and six led at least 21. This is a race that I would like to try and fit 3 dominators into my lineups. There are some drivers in the mid-tier who could also lead laps on Sunday so I also like 2 dominator builds with a mid-tier driver as a third “dominator”.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kyle Larson ($11,300)

Starting Position: 1st

Larson is the top pick for this race and is the odds on favorite to win. This season at 1.5-mile tracks with low tire wear Larson has dominated. At Las Vegas Larson led 103 laps on his way to victory, and then at Kansas Larson led 132 laps but finished 19th after a late caution and run-in with Ryan Blaney on the final laps. This week Larson was 3rd in practice and had the fastest 10 lap average. I think Larson will be key to getting a takedown this week and could easily be the driver with the highest points. Larson might be semi-chalky, but it’s chalk that you might need to eat.

Kyle Busch (10,200)

Starting Position: 20th

Kyle is the best place differential play in this tier but he is also someone who could win this race. Busch was 10th in practice and had the 6th best 10 lap average which is good for his car’s long-run ability. At Charlotte, over the last four races, Busch has finished top 4 in all races including one win. This season, Kyle owns a win (Kansas) at 1.5-mile tracks as well as having the best average finish at these tracks this season (4.8).

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,100)

Starting Position: 8th

The 2019 Coca-Cola 600 winner, his third career at Charlotte, Truex will be a driver who will be contending for the win. Over the past six Charlotte races, Truex has 2 wins, an average finish of 3rd, and lead an average of 159 laps PER RACE. To say Truex dominates at Charlotte may be an understatement. One concern I have, and it is slight, is that Truex didn’t run well in practice. Truex had the 14th fastest lap and the 9th best 10 lap average, but this concern is slight. The 19 team will make sure this car is ready to go for Sunday and Truex should be running up front all day (and night).

Chase Elliott ($10,500)

Starting Position: 3rd

Elliott had a great qualifying run and looked extremely fast, unlike in practice. In practice on Friday, Elliott had the 12th fastest single lap time and the seventh-best 10 lap average. Elliott won the second race here in 2020 and he would have won the 600 if it was not for a late caution with two laps left. Elliott had the 6th best total speed ranking at Kansas and finished 5th, the last 1.5-mile race we had in 2021.

Other Top Tier Drivers:

• Denny Hamlin ($10,800) – P14: Hamlin has never won here, but does own a 2nd place finish. Hamlin has top 5’s in six of the last 9 1.5-mile tracks
• Kevin Harvick ($10,000) – P5: Since 2013 at Charlotte, Harvick has only finished outside the top 10 two times. I don’t love his price, but he will be one of the lower owned plays in this tier
• William Byron ($9,200) – P4: Byron is the most consistent driver in the series this season and even though he starts towards the front, like Larson he could be a force and lead a bunch of laps here. Byron won earlier this season at Homestead, a similar 1.5-mile track.
• Brad Keselowski ($9,700) – P13: Keselowski won last year’s 600 and has an average finish of 7.8 in the last four races.
• Alex Bowman ($9,400) – P7: Bowman loves the high line and that is usually the fastest part on the track at Charlotte. Last year at this race Bowman led 164 laps but finished 20th. I really like Bowman on Sunday for a top 5.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Joey Logano ($8,800)

Starting Position: 16th

Logano is one of the drivers I spoke about in the open who could be a dominator in this race but not be in the top tier. In the last four Charlotte races, Logano has an average finish of 7.3 and the 5th best driver rating. In his last five races at 1.5-mile tracks, Logano has finished between 8th and 11th in four of them.

Tyler Reddick ($8,200)

Starting Position: 15th

Reddick and the #8 team have been getting some great results over the last eight races. In seven of those eight races, Reddick has finishes between 7th and 12th. At Kansas, earlier this season Reddick finished 7th and had an average running position of 9.7. Reddick was fast in practice on Friday finishing with the 7th best single lap time and the third-best 10 lap average.

Austin Dillon ($7,700)

Starting Position: 6th

Dillon is a former winner of this race and will probably come in with little to no ownership on Sunday. If you are going to roster Dillon you need to know there is risk, but as a former winner and someone who does well at 1.5-mile tracks he could be key to getting a takedown on Sunday. Dillon has an average finish of 10th at 1.5-mile tracks this season and has not finished lower than 12th. In Friday’s practice, nobody ran a faster lap than Dillon and he also has the 12th best 10 lap average.

Other Options: Matt DiBenedetto ($7,500 – P22), Aric Almirola ($7,900 – P31) – Honestly, I hate this play, but you can’t ignore the potential upside. He is a CASH ONLY play. Christopher Bell ($8,600 – P17), Erik Jones ($7,200 – P19)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Chris Buescher ($6,700) – P27: Buescher has a 12th place average finish in 1.5-mile track this season and could be a sneaky top 10 driver this week
2. Ryan Newman ($6,400) – P25: Newman was a top 15 car in practice this week and should contend for a top 20. Newman has a 13.5 avg finish at 1.5-mile tracks in 2021.
3. Michael McDowell ($5,800) – P24: McDowell has performed well at 1.5-mile low tire wear tracks this season. In two races he has an average finish of 15th.
4. Chase Briscoe ($6,200) – P21: Briscoe has finished between 18th and 23rd at 1.5-mile tracks this season and should contend for a top 20 on Sunday
5. Ross Chastain ($6,900) – P10: Chastain has been a low teens driver at 1.5-mile tracks this season. I know he starts high, but a top 10 is not out of the question.
6. Daniel Suarez ($6,500) – P9: On Sunday Suarez will need a lot of attrition and be able to avoid the big wreck(s). Suarez is a GPP only play but will be under 10% owned in contests.
7. Ryan Preece ($6,000) – P28: Preece is mainly a low 20’s driver on 1.5-mile tracks but could end up in the top 20 if things go his way.
8. Anthony Alfredo ($5,500) – P29: Alfredo has finishes of 23rd and 24th at 1.5-mile tracks in 2021, and I see him finishing around that on Sunday.
9. Corey Lajoie ($5,600) – P26: Lajoie is not a sexy pick, but if things shape up like that did in the previous two races this weekend Lajoie could pull a top 20.

Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

This week all three of the top NASCAR Series head to Circuit of The Americas (COTA) in Austin, Texas! This is the first time ANY of these Series will run here so there is no data for us to go back to, we just need to rely on past road course history for the drivers in these races

NASCAR DFS: COTA Breakdown

COTA is a fairly new track, less than 10 years old, and has hosted many of the world’s top series from Formula 1 to IndyCar and even motorcycle races. NASCAR is choosing to run the full 3.426-mile course which means there are not a lot of laps being run. In fact, the three series are running 42, 44, and 68 laps respectively, so dominator points will be at a premium in all three races. Typically, we look more at place differential and finishing position for points when we have races like this with very few laps.

Two of the most dominant road course racers in the Cup Series are also the highest priced drivers on the slate today, Martin Truex Jr. ($10,600 P17) & Chase Elliott ($10,500 P8). Truex is a four-time road course winner and Elliott won four straight road course races coming into the season until he was unseated by Christopher Bell ($8,300 P10). Both Truex and Elliott should be anchors for lineups today.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Like I mentioned in the open both Truex and Elliott are the dominant road course racers in the field and should still be considered for GPP’s even though they will be highly owned. For GPP’s I would probably lean Elliott because he was the better car in practice on Saturday. In cash games, I want to play them both together and you will still have over $7.2K left per driver which is plenty of salary based on the value we have in this race.

Kyle Larson ($10,200)

Starting Position: 2nd

Larson was potentially going to take the lead and win earlier this season at the Daytona RC when he wrecked late and finished 30th. In that race, Larson was 4th fastest in total speed and was 8th fastest in late run speed. On Saturday Larson was third fastest in practice, one of three Hendrick cars in the top in overall speed (Byron- 1st, Elliott- 5th).

Kyle Busch ($9,900)

Starting Position: 4th

Kyle all but dominated the Xfinity race on Saturday and that track time will definitely help him on Sunday. While the competition will definitely be tougher, I still think the 18 could be in for the win when all is said and done on Sunday. In practice on Saturday, Busch pushed his car in the heavy rain and ended up 4th fastest.

William Byron ($9,200)

Starting Position: 5th

Byron is currently a top 10 machine and comes in with 11 straight top 10’s and back-to-back 4th place finishes. In Saturday’s rain-soaked practice, Byron was the fastest car by over half a second (that’s a lot for NASCAR) and should easily find himself in contention for a third straight top 5 on Sunday. Before his wreck at the Daytona road course earlier this season Byron has three straight top 10 finishes at road courses (6th, 6th, 8th).

Remaining Top Tier drivers:

Kevin Harvick ($9,700) P11: Harvick had a good day in the Xfinity race on Saturday and has a shot at the win on Sunday

Joey Logano (9,500) P6: Logano has the second-best avg speed ranking behind Elliott over the last two seasons at road courses. I would look for Logano to be in contention for the top 5 on Sunday

Denny Hamlin ($10,100) P19: Hamlin had a power steering issue in qualifying, but they believed they fixed the issue. If Hamlin’s car is fine then he will be one of the top plays in this race. Hamlin has PD upside and is a good bet for a top 5 at COTA

Ryan Blaney ($9,100) P9: Blaney is starting exactly where he ran in practice on Saturday and should be a contender for a top 10. Blaney has finished 12th or better in all but two road course races since 2017 and has a 6.4 average finish.

Brad Keselowski ($9,300) P24: Keselowski was bad in practice and bad in qualifying. These were not his first laps here because he did test at COTA earlier this year with Truex and Elliott, but unless he is playing possum, Keselowski doesn’t seem like a top play today

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Christopher Bell ($8,300)

Starting Position: 10th

Bell won the only other road course races this season and will definitely be a threat for another top 5 on Sunday. In practice, Bell ran the 6th best practice lap which was 1.3 seconds off the top lap run by Byron. Bell seems underpriced for his upside on Sunday. I also think that Bell doesn’t get too much ownership and he will be viable in cash and GPP.

AJ Allmendinger ($8,500 – P7) & Austin Cindric ($8,700 – P3)

I think both Dinger and Cindric are solid mid tier plays for this race. They both raced in the Xfinity race on Saturday and performed well so they have track experience which is key. I wouldn’t roster them both together because of the volatility of they’re cars. My preference would be AJ for cash/SE and Cindric for GPP’s.

Michael McDowell ($7,400)

Starting Position: 23rd

McDowell is an excellent road course racer and could push for a top 10 today. In his last four road course races, McDowell has finished 12th or better in three of them. McDowell was 10th in practice on Saturday and looked really good in the rain, which there is a chance we get some rain during this race

Other Options: Kurt Busch ($8,100 – P13) – Busch had his best finish (4th) this season at the Dayton RC, maybe gets right here. Alex Bowmn ($8,900 – P12), Cole Custer ($7,800 – P14), Matt DiBenedetto ($7,900 – P21)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Ross Chastain ($6,000 P20) : Chastain ran a top 10 practice lap on Saturday and has PD upside. Great cash play as well.
2. Chris Buescher ($6,900 P28) : Buescher is another great road course racer who will probably go underowned today. In his last three RC starts, Buescher has an avg finish of 12th
3. Chase Briscoe ($6,400 P27): Briscoe is another good road course racer and has won at lower levels. If you need the $500 I don’t mind dropping down to Briscoe over Buescher one bit.
4. Daniel Suarez ($6,600 P15): Suarez and the 99 team seem to be getting better every week. Earlier at Daytona RC in 2021 Suarez was 16th
5. Ricky Stenhouse ($6,200 P22): Stenhouse is an average road course racers, look for him to finish top 20, maybe top 15 if he catches a break or two
6. Ryan Newman ($6,700 P34): Newman can’t really hurt you at this price, but expect him to be highly owned
7. Ryan Preece ($5,700 P36): Preece had a top 10 at the Daytona RC earlier this season, but don’t expect that. Look for Preece to finish top 20
8. Ty Dillon ($5,500 P33): Dillon was 19th in this car at the Daytona RC earlier and I expect a similar finish on Sunday
9. James Davison ($5,000 P32): Davison is a solid road course racer who will go overlooked. Davison was fast in practice finishing with the 20th best lap

Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

This weekend NASCAR’s premier circuit heads to “The Monster Mile”, Dover International Speedway in Dover, Deleware. One of the coolest things about this track is the Monster trophy the winner receives. Dover is a track that is extremely difficult to pass at and where having the right dominators in your lineup is very important.

Last season at Dover we had two different type of races in regards to dominators. In the first 2020 Dover race, Denny Hamlin led the most last with 115 which is just 37%. In race number two it is more what we usually see with Kevin Harvick leading 223 laps (71.7%). What you need to decide when building your lineups on Sunday is if you need 1, 2, or potentially 3 dominators. I will probably keep my lineups to just two dominators personally, but if the salary works I don’t see any issues going with three, but do not force it.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Martin Truex Jr ($11,900)

Starting Position: 1st

Truex is on the pole for Sunday’s race and should dominate this race early. Over his last four races here, Truex has three 2nd place finishes and a win. Last season in the first Dover race, Truex led 88 laps and had 33 fastest laps while finishing 2nd. With how well the number 19 team is performing this season I would not be surprised to see Truex lead over 200 laps and winning this race. I anticipate Truex being among my highest-owned drivers on Sunday.

Kyle Larson ($11,500)

Starting Position: 4th

Larson is another previous winner here at Dover and should be in the running for a win on Sunday. In the Fall 2019 race, Larson won and dominated in the process. Larson has finished in the top five at Dover in 50% (6) of his races here and in the top ten 75% (9) of the time. I know he is expensive, like Truex (they are the top two priced drivers) but I think the prices could keep their ownership down some.

Denny Hamlin ($11,100)

Starting Position: 2nd

Early on in his career, Dover was one of Hamlin’s worst tracks, but now it has become another track where he dominates. In his last ten races here at Dover, Hamlin has seven top 10’s including winning here in the first race last year. In the second race, Hamlin was running in the top 5 (3rd) but had to make an unscheduled pit stop because of a loose wheel which led to him finishing 19th. Denny has yet to win this season and Sunday could be the day this winless streak ends for Hamlin and he joins his JGR teammates with victories this season.

Chase Elliott ($10,700)

Starting Position: 8th

Elliott is like Hamlin in that he hasn’t won a race in 2021 and is the only driver in the Hendrick stable of Chevy’s without a victory. Elliott is the reigning NASCAR Cup champion and it has to be eating him up that he hasn’t found success in 2021. Dover is one of Elliott’s best tracks as he has seven top 10 finishes in ten races here. In the first Dover race last season, Elliott led 27 laps and had 41 fastest laps, and finished 5th. I like Elliott for a top 5 finish on Sunday.

Other Top Tier Plays:

• Kyle Busch ($10,00) – P6: Busch has 3 wins at Dover and is averaging a finish of 5.5 in his last 5 races (minus Talladega)
• Kevin Harvick ($9,800) – P5: Harvick is a Dover ace and should compete for the win here. I really like pairing Harvick with one of the $11K drivers for a double dominator stack
• Brad Keselowski ($10,300) – P15: Keselowski has place differential upside and has finished between 8th and 12th in his last four races here. Also, Keselowski called the Xfinity race on Saturday which during this season has worked out well for drivers.
• Alex Bowman ($9,200) – P16: If Bowman can finally end his streak of bad races he could be in line for a top 5. Bowman has three top 5’s in his last 4 at Dover

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Kurt Busch ($8,700)

Starting Position: 28th

Busch was also in the booth with Keselowski on Saturday and like Bowman, he is also trying to end a streak of poor finishes. In his last six races at Dover, Busch has finished between 5th and 13th five times. I know a lot of people will avoid Busch and I think his ownership should be around 20% and will make for a great large field GPP play.

Cole Custer ($7,700)

Starting Position: 30th

Custer is another driver that has not had a great run of late in the Cup Series but is due for a good run. Last year at Dover, Custer had finishes of 10th and 11th. In the second race here, Custer finished 10th while averaging a 10.1 average running position and had the 9th total speed ranking.

Ryan Blaney ($8,400)

Starting Position: 7th

I honestly think Blaney is underpriced for the value he can present on Sunday. Blaney hasn’t been outstanding at Dover, but he has top 10 upside here. In the second Dover race, Blaney led 37 laps, had the 5th best average running position and had the 5th best total speed ranking, and finished 12th. Blaney also has finished top 11 in five of the last six races this season and will probably carry sub 20% ownership.

Other Options: William Byron ($8,900 – P3), Aric Almirola ($8,200 – P32), Matt DiBenedetto ($7,800 – P18)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Chris Buescher ($6,600) – P10: Buescher will be low owned again, but with how well he has been driving this season I will take the risk in tournaments
2. Bubba Wallace ($6,900) – P22: Wallace has never finished better than 20th here, but he has been better of late and a top 20 isn’t out of the realm of possibility
3. Daniel Suarez ($6,300) – P24: Suarez had an average finish of 8.6 at Dover prior to 2020 and had never finished worse than 14th
4. Ross Chastain ($6,500) – P19: Chastain and the 42 team have been improving weekly this season and have finishes of 17th or better in 5 straight races
5. Ryan Newman ($6,800) – P13: Newman is an experienced driver who knows his way around the track. I like Newman for a top 20 on Sunday
6. Chase Briscoe ($6,100) – P17: We saw Briscoe have his best finish last week, but temper expectations. I see Briscoe finishing right around where he started
7. Ryan Preece ($5,900) – P25: Preece has never finished better than 19th at Dover, but he has outdriven expectations all season, so don’t be surprised with a top 15 on Sunday
8. Josh Berry ($5,300) – P29: Berry has had a great weekend at Dover, but this will be the worst equipment he has driven all week. I don’t expect much more than a high 20’s finish though
9. Michael McDowell ($6,200) – P21: McDowell is a mid 20’s driver at Dover and that’s where I anticipate he finishes on Sunday
10. Anthony Alfredo ($5,500) – P27: Once again, Alfredo is in play if you need the salary relief, but he isn’t going to finish better than mid 20’s

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