NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Dover 5/15/21

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Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

This week the NASCAR Xfinity Series hits the track at the Monster Mile for Drydene 200 from Dover, Delaware. Last week we had Justin Allgaier ($10,400) win from P16, but he wasn’t the highest-scoring driver, that distinction went to Josh Berry ($8,900) who finished 2nd. Even though Allgaier had twice as many fastest laps, led 2 more laps, and won but Berry started 8 spots further back and that was the difference. I bring this up because there are days where you don’t need to roster a race winner to have the highest-scoring driver in your lineup, but this week probably won’t be one of those weeks.

Dover International Speedway Breakdown:

Dover has a tendency to produce semi boring races where one driver can just completely dominate a race and that was the case in 2020. Last season in both races a Dover one driver led more than 50% of the laps in each race. In the first race in 2020 here, Allgaier led 120 laps (60% of the race), and in the second race, Chase Briscoe led 107 laps (53.5% of the race). In both races, having the winner was key to cashing and potentially a takedown.

Looking at both races from last season, only 2 drivers in both races finished inside the top 10 while starting outside the top 16. Both of those instances happened in the first race when Jeb Burton (P27) and Justin Haley (P22) finished 7th and 8th respectively. The last little tidbit about Dover I have for you is one to reinforce the fact it is difficult to pass the leaders here. In race 2 last season at Dover there were only 11 green flag passes for the led, and there were even fewer in race 1, just four. Take a track like Phoenix where there was 24 green flag passes for the lead in 2020 and you can see how important getting the dominator right is on Saturday.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Austin Cindric ($11,000)

Starting Position: 16th

I predict that Cindric will be the highest owned driver on the slate, but also could easily be the driver who dominates this race. In two races here last season, Cindric has an average finish of 2.5, had 70 fastest laps, and led 50 laps. There isn’t much more I need to say about Cindric in this race, he had a bad week last week and will be an angry and determined driver on Saturday and he is my pick to win this race.

Ty Gibbs ($11,500)

Starting Position: 14th

Gibbs is another driver I think will be highly owned on Saturday even at his elevated price (highest on the slate). There is no doubt that Gibbs is one of the most talented drivers in this race but Dover can be a difficult track for a newcomer. Gibbs made his first laps at Dover in the ARCA race on Friday night and he of course led all 125 laps and won. This experience should help Gibbs on Saturday, but I would still prefer to pay down the $500 and get Cindric for tournaments.

John Hunter Nemechek ($10,100)

Starting Position: 30th

Nemechek has dominated the truck series this season but this isn’t the KBM equipment he is used to driving. On Saturday, Nemechek will be in the Sam Hunt Racing #26 Toyota. This is a steep price to pay for a single-car team, but they have had success this season with lesser drivers. In nine races in 2021, this car has seven top 20 finishes, including five top 15’s. I really think Nemechek could get this car to a top 10 finish with some attrition.

I am not opposed to double dominator lineups and I will probably have a couple myself. I would pair one of the top-priced drivers listed above with any of these three:

• Noah Gragson ($9,900 – P3) – Gragson is in the Dash 4 Cash and has won the previous 3 races ($300K in total). He will be highly motivated to win the fourth $100K
• Harrison Burton ($9,100 – P5) – Burton is priced appropriately this week but is still a solid play who could lead laps and is always fast.
• Daniel Hemric ($9,400 – P1) – Hemric is on the pole but if he can get out front he could dominate and lead over 50% of the laps. Hemric has 7 top 10’s on the season and hasn’t finished lower than 12th in his last 4 races

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Landon Cassill ($7,700)

Starting Position: 37th

Cassill is in the #6 this week as opposed to the #4 he has been in all season. I think Cassill can still manage a top 20 in this car that has only one finish better than 24th this season. Ryan Vargas ($5,200 P23) will be in the 4 this weekend but I am not too high on him. Back to Cassill, he does have some minimal success at Dover in the Xfinity Series. Cassill has an average finish of 20.9 in 12 races here and I predict another top 20 is in his future on Saturday

Josh Berry ($8,900)

Starting Position: 6th

Berry, like Gibbs, ran in the ARCA race at Dover on Friday night and finished second behind Gibbs. This is the first season for Berry in the Xfinity Series and he has already established himself as one of the top drivers in this series. I think Berry has an outside chance to lead laps and win this race.

I have a lot of interest in the mid tier this week so I will rank the rest after Cassill and Berry

1. JJ Yeley ($8,100 – P31): Yeley was the chalk mid-tier last week and let us down, he has a bounce-back this week and makes value
2. Jeb Burton ($8,300 – P13): Burton had five straight top 10’s, but only has one since. Burton is due for a bounce-back week as well and ran well here last season
3. Riley Herbst ($7,900 – P20): In 2020 Herbst has two top 10 finishes at Dover
4. Zane Smith ($8,000 – P9): Smith will be in the #11 Kaulig Chevy replacing Justin Haley who is out with COVID. Smith is a really good driver and is in top-end equipment. I think Smith will be low owned and has top 10 potential
5. Myatt Snider ($7,400 – P15): Snider has only two finishes lower than 15th this season and in much lesser equipment he finished 17th and 18th last season at Dover

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Kyle Sieg ($5,700) – P35: Sieg has run two races in the ARCA Series at Dover, so he is familiar with the track and he is in decent equipment with PD upside
2. Josh Williams ($6,700) – P29: Williams had one bad week this season and now gives us great PD upside this week. Williams is a high teens to low 20’s driver this week
3. Gray Gaulding ($6,800) – P40: Gaulding starts dead last and is typically a mid to high 20’s driver. Love his upside this week.
4. Brandon Brown ($6,900) – P19: Brown finished 14th and 16th at Dover last season. He has top 10 upside
5. BJ McLeod ($5,500) – P24: McLeod is cheap enough that if he finishes around his starting position he could make value
6. Timmy Hill ($4,600) – P22
7. David Starr ($4,500) – P21: Both Hill and Starr are good plays for the price if they are running full races. I will update in discord on Saturday
8. Tommy Joe Martins ($5,300) – P17: Hoping for a top 15 from Martins on Saturday. Martins finished 15th and 21st at Dover in 2020
9. Matt Jaskol ($6,300) – P38: Mid to high 20’s upside
10. Colby Howard ($6,200) – P25: I wish he was a little cheaper, but if you have the salary you could do worse.

Make sure to check in discord throughout the day on Saturday as I may update the value plays if I find out more info on sponsors and potential start and park drivers.

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