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NASCAR DFS

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Watkins Glen 8/8/21

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new to WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! Each week, I break down the field and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Welcome back, everyone! After a hiatus because of the Summer Olympics NASCAR is finally back at the track this weekend. This weekend all three series are at Watkins Glen International Raceway in upstate New York, a 3.4-mile road course featuring 11 turns.

Watkins Glen is NASCAR’s oldest road course and some would consider it the best. Drivers usually drive very aggressively here and that was evident by how both races on Saturday turned out. There has been a trend over the past 5 races that I think ends this week. Over the last five races here the winner has started in the top 6 four times and has an average starting position of 5.8. During this same time, the winner has led an average of 33.4 laps per race.

Chase Elliott ($10,600) starts 11th on Sunday and has won back-to-back races here and has also won back-to-back road course races this season. Elliott is the favorite to win this race and will be in the majority of my lineups and he is the best play on this slate in my opinion.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

I already mentioned Elliott in the open so I won’t spend more time on him. He is projected as the highest owned driver but also has the projected point total.

Kyle Busch ($10,900)

Starting Position: 20th

Busch is a two-time winner at WGI and will be in contention for a third on Sunday. In 2019, the last time the series raced here, Busch finished 11th, but that should have been a top 5. Busch had some mishaps on the track and a pit road speeding penalty that led to him finishing 11th. This season Busch has three top ten’s in four road course races. If you take out the Daytona Road Course (where he wrecked), Busch has an average finish of 6th in the remaining three races.

Kurt Busch ($10,000)

Starting Position: 17th

From one Busch to the other, Kurt has been as good, or better, of a performer at road courses than his little brother this season. Kurt has an average finish of 10.3 in his four races this season including three top tens and two top 5’s. I believe both Kurt (20%) and Kyle (30%) will be upfront most of the day and should compete for top 5’s, but Kurt will be the much lower owned of the two brothers.

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,400)

Starting Position: 9th

Truex is another driver who excels at road courses and doesn’t need his accolades written up again. I will just say that Truex has three straight top 2 finishes at Watkins Glen and is someone you need to consider for your builds on Sunday.

Kyle Larson ($10,200)

Starting Position: 4th

Larson has become one of the series top road course racers in 2021 and should finish in the top 5 on Sunday. In his last race here, Larson finished 8th and was 5th in total speed ranking as well as 6th fastest late in a run. With pit strategy being crucial here, a driver who can make the best of his car late in a run is key as we say with Ty Gibbs on Saturday.

Other Options: William Byron ($9,800 – P15), Denny Hamlin ($9,400 – P6), Joey Logano ($9,600 – P2)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Chase Briscoe ($8,300)

Starting Position: 27th

Briscoe will be popular on Sunday, but like I keep saying we need to just eat good chalk. This season Briscoe has two top 10’s but were 6th place finishes at the last two road course races and I expect another one from him on Sunday. Briscoe ran in the ARCA race on Friday night but had issues with his car and did not finish but he was running top 10 for the majority of the race before his issues.

Michael McDowell ($7,200)

Starting Position: 25th

I know McDowell is not someone I usually recommended and someone I rarely ever give a full write-up to, but here we are. McDowell is a good road course driver and top tens at both COTA and the Daytona Road Course this season. Watkins Glen is also one of McDowell’s better tracks with five straight top 20 finishes.

Erik Jones ($7,000)

Starting Position: 22nd

Here is another driver that most of you will be like “I’m not playing him”, but hear me out, please. Jones was running a great race here in the Xfinity Series race Saturday afternoon before he lost his brakes and finished 36th. Jones spent the majority of the day in the top 15 and was looking good for a top 10 finish before his wreck. In three races in the Cup Series at WGI, Jones has three top 10’s and two top 5’s. Now I know these finishes were in different equipment, specifically the two top 5’s that came in JGR cars, but Jones is having success at road courses in 2021 with his RPM #43. Jones’s worst finish at a road course this season is 19th at Road America and I expect another top 20 on Sunday.

Other Options: Ross Chastain ($8,100 – P12), Christopher Bell ($8,800 – P7), Chris Buescher ($7,800 – P24), Daniel Suarez ($7,500 – P21)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Austin Dillon ($6,100) – P16: Dillon ran the Xfinity race on Saturday but his day ended early. DraftKings price for Dillon is criminaly low which will make him semi popular, but not enough that he can’t make a difference in your lineups (sub 20%)
Corey Lajoie ($5,800 ) – P29: This season Lajoie has finished 21st or better in the last three road course races and has been seeing a vast improvement in his finished lately.
Ryan Preece ($5,500) – P23: Preece is cheap enough that if he finishes mid 20’s he doesn’t hurt you. I don’t know that we need to go this low with the value in the low $7K range though.
Cole Custer ($6,500) – P19: Custer has a top 10 average finish in the lower NASCAR series’s here, and I think that could translate to a top 20 finish for him on Sunday.
James Davison ($5,900) – P36: Davison is a good road course driver and nobody will roster him on Sunday. There is some decent upside starting next to last for Davison and if we have some early carnage it could guarantee a postinve PD day for him.
Bubba Wallace ($6,600) – P26: Wallace is not great at road courses, just ask him he will tell you. But, this season Wallace and 23XI racing have seen their team get better which has led to better finished for Wallace. I don’t know if he can pull of a top 15, but a top 20 is definitel in the cards.

Thank you for reading my weekly NASCAR DFS Pit Stop articles and make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Watkins Glen 8/7/21

Matt Vecchio 4 years ago

written by Matt Vecchio

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Xfinity series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then, you know the drill, but welcome if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content! Each week, I break down the field and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

The last time the Xfinity Series was here at Watkins Glen Austin Cindric ($10,100) went to victory lane (to no one’s surprise) and AJ Allmendinger ($10,300) finished second but was disqualified following post-race inspection. Once again, both Cindric and Allmendinger are the favorites to win this race on Saturday and both will be in the majority of my builds. We do have two Cup Serie regulars stepping down in Erik Jones ($10,600) and Austin Dillon ($9,900). Neither is probably a threat to win, but both should be given consideration when building lineups.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

AJ Allmendinger ($10,300)

Starting Position: 6th

I went back and forth between AJ and Austin Cindric on who should be the top play and it came down to the place differential for me. It may be minimal but the difference between starting 2nd and 6th could be all we need for a takedown. Now, cards on the table, I plan on playing both of Allmendinger and Cindric together some, but if you can only afford one, go Dinger.

Austin Cindric ($10,100)

Starting Position: 2nd

Even though I do say we don’t need to chase dominator points in low-lap races like this that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try and get the points where we can. Cindric could and should get the lead early from Allgaier and lead the early portion of this race. I don’t need to go over the credentials for Cindric on road courses, just know he is dominant at these types of tracks and should be again on Saturday.

Ty Gibbs ($10,500)

Starting Position: 15th

With how well the youngster has performed at road courses this season, I could have put Gibbs as the top play on this slate, but I think WGI is challenging and could give Gibbs some fits early on. Now, with that being said, I do see a path to using all three of these drivers I’ve mentioned together and that could potentially be the optimal build for this race. Gibbs has two top 5’s at road courses this season and I see him getting his third top 5 at a road course on Saturday.

Austin Dillon ($9,900)

Starting Position: 33rd

Dillon will be in the #23 for Our Motorsports this weekend and will hope to duplicate the performances his brother has had in this car in 2021. Ty Dillon has two top 10 finishes this season in the #23 and you can bet that Austin will want to one-up his brother. This is not a great car, but when there is a capable driver like Austin Dillon behind the wheel it can perform with the top half of the series. I really love the potential upside of this car on Saturday and I will look to Dillon as a potential pivot off of one of the three mentioned above.

Other Options: Erik Jones ($10,600 – P36), Sam Mayer ($9,700 – P23), Brandon Jones ($9300 – P21), Noah Gragson ($9,500 – P11)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

I am going to do something very different with this tier this week since there is a group of drivers all in similar starting positions and similarly priced. Instead of breaking them down individually I will list them (in salary order) and give a small blurb about them. It will basically come down to you picking your 2-3 dominators above, a cheap value piece, and then potentially 2 of these 5 drivers.

Josh Bilicki ($7,500 – P30): Bilicki is a good road course driver with an average finish of 18.8 in 5 road course races since 2020.
Preston Pardus ($7,400 – P36): Pardus is a road course ringer and should push for a top 20 on Saturday. If you take out the Daytona Road Course this season where he wrecked, Pardus has an average finish of 18.3 with two top 15’s. All things being equal, save the $100 and go Pardus over Bilicki.
Alex Labbe ($7,200 – P26): Since 2020, Labbe has run eight road course races and has two top 10’s. Labbe also has an average finish 16th place. I think Labbe is probably my favorite play in this group. At Watkins Glen, Labbe has finishes of 16th and 19th in two races.
Kyle Tilley ($7,100 – P37): Tilley has very little experience in NASCAR (two Cup Series races), but is a skilled veteran at these types of tracks. If you can’t get up to a Labbe or Pardus, Tilley is a solid pivot.
Michael Munley ($7,000 – P34): Munley is a 14 year veteran and a road course specialist making his NASCAR debut. He has a decent car and the place differential upside is there. Munley is probably my least favorite of thee five, but if you can’t get higher than his price, I do not hate using him.

Other Options: Justin Haley ($8,700 – P5), Harrison Burton ($8,500 – P4), Michael Annett ($7,700 – P18), Justin Allgaier ($8,900 – P1)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Stephen Leicht ($6,300 – P40) – Leicht will be tough to fit in three dominator builds but I will try to make it work. Since 2020, Leicht has an average finish of 23.8 in six road course races. If we can get that type of performance from him on Saturday he will be optimal for sure.
Kyle Weatherman ($5,400 – P22) – Weatherman has performed really well at road courses this season and is cheap enough to finish around where he starts to make value. He has top 20 upside as well.
Jesse Little ($4,600 – P27) – Little is cheaper with similar upside to Weatherman.
David Smith ($5,900 – P38) – Smith is a road course veteran with no NASCAR experience. Starting 38th at under $6K leaves me wanting to take the risk on him. Smith will be in the #52 on Saturday, a car with top 25 upside.
Brandon Brown ($6,900 – P14) – Similar to Tanner Gray in the Truck Series, Brown is a low owned piece to use in 2 dominator builds.
Jade Buford ($5,600 – P16) – Buford is a pretty good road course driver and is having a pretty good run of later. I don’t love this play because of his starting spot but he will be low owned.
Matt Mills ($4,800 – P29) – Mills has been good at road courses in 2021 averaging a 22nd place finish. That is more than enough upside for his salary.
Kris Wright ($4,500 – P24) – Cheapest driver on the slate with some risk. Wright is a road course driver, but I worry that he could sink some really good lineups otherwise. If you want to take the risk, go for it, but just know that he is probably someone who will finish around 30th.

Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Truck Series Watkins Glen 8/7/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Truck series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then, you know the drill, but welcome if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content! Each week, I break down the field and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

It has been a very, VERY long time since the Truck Series has been to WGI, in fact, it’s been 21 years. This will only be the sixth race in this series here, and the last time there was a truck race here Greg Biffle won. Obviously, there is nobody in this race currently running in the Truck Series full time, in fact, only Kurt Busch is still running regularly in any of the three major series’ who ran that race in 2000. Like with all road courses this season you need to remember that we are not hunting dominator points, but instead, we are looking for finishing positions and place differential plays.

As with every week, each tier of drivers is listed in order of preference

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

AJ Allmendinger ($10,100)

Starting Position: 21st

Allmendinger was not originally scheduled to run this race, but because of a positive COVID-19 test for Chase Purdy, Dinger got the call. Purdy has been running some decent races in the #23 truck this season but Allmendinger is an obvious upgrade over him. Allmendinger is an absolute lock for me in this race. We are getting one of the premier road course races in NASCAR racing in arguably the best equipment in the Truck Series. Honestly, what’s not to like?

Sheldon Creed ($9,800)

Starting Position: 19th

Sheldon Creed starting 19th at only $9,800, SIGN ME UP! This is clear mispricing by DraftKings and he is the perfect “salary relief” to pair with an Allmendinger and another high-priced dominator. In the past two seasons, Creed has run three road course races and has three top 5’s and a win in 2020 at the Daytona Road Course. It is kind of hard to pass up this type of value today.

Sam Mayer ($10,600)

Starting Position: 40th

Mayer is going to be the most popular play on Saturday but is likely to also be the driver who scores the most DKFP as well. I have been saying it all season, do not worry about ownership when it comes to the top tier, you need to just lock in the guys we want up here and play the ownership game in lower price tiers. Mayer has run two races in the #32 this season and finished top 10 both times, and most importantly he finished 6th at COTA this season.

Kaz Grala ($10,000)

Starting Position: 23rd

This is clearly a top-heavy field when it comes to DFS on Saturday but I believe there is enough value to lock in three $10K+ drivers. Grala has run two races in the 02 truck this season, both top 10 finishes. At COTA (Austin), Grala started 2nd and finished 2nd so we know this truck can pull a top 5 and I think Grala can get there again Saturday. If it comes down to Grala and AJ, I have no problem going Grala if you need the $100 (you shouldn’t though).

If you want to be different, both Paul Menard ($10,400 – P39) and Parker Kligerman ($10,200 – P38) are good place differential plays. Both Menard and Kligerman should finish top 20, or even top 10. Their pricing combined with the other drivers mentioned above do make three dominator builds difficult. Ownership should be spread out in this tier this week but they should both come in at lower ownership than the four drivers above.

Other Options: Grant Enfinger ($9,600 – P30),Ben Rhodes ($9,100 – P5), John Hunter Nemechek ($9,500 – P6), Todd Gilliland ($9,300 – P2)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Corey Heim ($8,900)

Starting Position: 16th

Heim is an exceptionally talented teenager, but the difference between Heim and the others is, well there are two differences. One difference being that he is in a KBM truck which is arguably the best equipment in the field and second, Heim won the ARCA race here on Friday night. In two road course races in the ARCA series, this season Heim has a 7th place finish at Mid-Ohio and the win on Friday. In his only career truck race, Heim finishes 23rd at Darlington, but I’m not really worried about that finish since Darlington is one of the toughest tracks, especially for a young driver like Heim.

Taylor Gray ($7,800)

Starting Position: 32nd

This play could be risky since Gray is just 16 years old, but he is another of the future stars of the sport. Gray has never finished outside the top ten in the ARCA Series. Last season Gray finished 4th at the Daytona Road Course. On Saturday the teenager will be jumping into the DGR #17 Ford that has performed well this season with five top 15’s, three top 10’s, and a win.

Timmy Hill ($7,100)

Starting Position: 36th

Hill is one way you can go to get three $10K drivers into your builds on Saturday. In 2021 this truck (#56) has only finished 30th or worse twice, both were because of wrecks and neither time was Timmy Hill behind the wheel. Hill actually has two top 10’s in this truck this season (he is the team owner) one of them coming at the Daytona Road Course. This truck is practically a lock for plus place differential points and could be part of the optimal build and help get you a takedown.

Other Options: Zane Smith ($8,500 – P8), Christian Eckes ($7,400 – P15), Josh Berry ($7,300 – P21), Tyler Ankrum ($8,200 – P10)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Chad Chastain ($4,900 – P31) – Ross’s brother has no NASCAR experience but has plenty of truck experience. Cheap and has PD upside
Jack Wood ($6,000 – P27) – Rough start to his career but has great PD upside at a cheap price in GMS equipment
Will Rodgers ($6,500 – P29)
Austin Wayne Self ($5,700 – P20) – Starts a little high but that should keep his ownership down. Self is a good road course racer as well
Bobby Reuse ($5,400 – P35) – Of the two Reuse brothers in this race he is probably the better value
Tanner Gray ($6,900 – P22) – For two dominator builds Gray is a good fit, he will also be very low owned (sub 10%).
Spencer Boyd ($5,300 – P34)
Lawless Alan ($5,900 – P24) – Another driver who starts a little high but will be signigicantly lower owned that Self. If you want to play that game, Alan is a good pivot off Self at sub 5% ownership.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Premium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series New Hampshire 7/18

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new to WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Sunday’s race will be the last for a couple of weeks while NASCAR (is forced) takes a break for the Olympics. New Hampshire Motor Speedway is located in Loudon, New Hampshire, and is a short, flat track similar to Phoenix and Richmond. Track position is key here and generally drivers starting inside the top 10 dominate this race. It’s not just here that drivers starting towards the front tend to dominate, it’s the same at all similar tracks this season. Only once this season (Dover) has anyone starting lower than 9th led more than 50 laps at short, flat tracks while running the 750 HP package.

One thing to note for this race is that I plan on going with more of a balanced build.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Denny Hamlin ($10,000)

Starting Position: 6th

If it’s a short and flat track then Denny Hamlin is your man. This season at similar tracks Denny has been outstanding leading 207 laps and finishing second at Richmond. At Phoenix, Hamlin wasn’t as dominant but he did lead 33 laps and finished third. Hamlin has been one of the best at New Hampshire as well. Coming into Sunday, Hamlin has back-to-back 2nd place finishes and led 205 laps combined. Hamlin will definitely be in contention for the win on Sunday in my opinion.

Martin Truex Jr. ($9,100)

Starting Position: 2nd

Truex like Hamlin has been dominant at Loudon, but unlike Hamlin, Truex has never won here. Even though he hasn’t won here, Truex does have the best average finishing position of any driver in the field here over the last six races (4.7) and the best average running position (5.6). Truex has also led the most laps on average here in that same span, averaging nearly 79 laps led per race. At similar tracks, this season Truex has led 171 laps and finished 5th at Richmond, and won at Phoenix.

Kyle Busch ($10,900)

Starting Position: 1st

There is a pretty good chance Busch dominants the early segment of this race before eventually falling back into the back. I say he will fall back, but the last time Kyle was on the pole at New Hampshire he led 187 laps and won (2017-2) so maybe I’m wrong about that. In the last 13 races here Busch has seven top 5’s. ten top 10’s, two wins, and has only finished lower than 12th twice.

Brad Keselowski ($9,300)

Starting Position: 11th

Keselowski is the reigning winner of this race and should be a factor again on Sunday. If you are looking to pay up in this tier then I would recommend Kyle Busch being paired with his JGR teams I mentioned before him. But if you want to go more balanced but with a similar upside, then Keselowski is your man. In the last five races here, Keselowski has four top 5’s and an average finish of 4.4.

Kyle Larson ($11,200)

Starting Position: 10th

Larson has come back down to earth recently after he owned the series through May and June. DraftKings still has him priced up, but that doesn’t scare me off him, yet. Larson has performed well at New Hampshire and short flat tracks in general. This season at similar tracks Larson has finished 7th at Phoenix while having the 4th best total speed ranking. Larson finished second in two of his last four races at Loudon as well. I think another top 5 is in the cards for Larson on Sunday.

Other Options: Joey Logano ($9,500 – P15) – Has some potential PD upside and is fairly inexpensive. Chase Elliott ($9,800 – P3) – Raced in the Nashville SRX race on Saturday, is fatigue an issue? Either way, he is cheap.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Christopher Bell ($7,700)

Starting Position: 9th

Bell is surprisingly projecting as the highest owned driver. I guess I shouldn’t be that surprised considering the day he had on Saturday as well as his price. Bell was pretty dominant on Saturday leading more than half the race (151 laps) and heading back to victory lane for the third time in three races at Loudon. I don’t know if Bell can do the same with more talented field of drivers on Sunday but I don’t doubt he can pull off a top 5.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,100)

Starting Position: 29th

I know a lot of you don’t like playing Stenhouse, and I get that, but this season is different. Stenhouse has only finished outside the top 20 five times in 20 races, three of which were for mechanical issues with his car and one one from a wreck he didn’t cause. At similar tracks this season Stenhouse has finishes of 12th (Phoenix) and 17th (Richmond). Last season at NHMS, Stenhouse finished 14th.

Kurt Busch ($8,500)

Starting Position: 4th

Kurt Busch was written off a few months back and then he and the 1 team decided to go on an absolute tear. Busch has finished top 8 in five of his last six races including last weeks victory in Atlanta. This season at short flat tracks, Busch has finished top 15 in both races and he is a three time winner at New Hampshire. Busch will most likely be very low owned again this week and could pair nicely with a three cheap dominator build.

Other Options: Aric Almirola ($8,400 – P22) – Don’t sleep on this team. It’s been a bad season but they have finishes of 11th and 6th at similar tracks this season. Matt DiBenedetto ($7,500 – P14) – Matty D is driving for a job in 2022 and has back-to-back top 10’s. DiBenedetto also has finishes of 14th and 9th at similar tracks in 2021. Ryan Newman ($7,200 – P28) – Is a great and a perceived more consistent pivot off Stenhouse. Newman has not been good at similar tracks and only has one finished better than 22nd in his last 9

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

This week the value tier is not great, in fact it’s barely good, so this is why I said I prefer a balanced build because I don’t want to have too much exposure to this tier.

Erik Jones ($6,700) – P24: I expect Jones to be a top 20 driver on Sunday like he was early this season at Richmond and Phoenix. Jones won’t set the world on fire but for his price and where he can finish he will be a nice low owned compliment to my high owned top tier drivers
Cole Custer ($6,300) – P21: Custer does start a little higher then I’d like but he has top 20 potnetial. Last season in his first Cup Series start at Loudon Custer finished 8th. I am not expecting another top 10, but a top 15 is possible.
Tyler Reddick ($6,800) – P8: Reddick has three straight top 10’s and is underpriced in my opinion. Reddick wasn’t great at short flat tracks this season, but this team is much improved since then and should be in contention for a top 10.
Bubba Wallace ($6,500) – P18: Wallace has been running great recently with an average finish of 13.2 in the nine non road course races since Dover. This team is heating up and I think Wallace could finish around that 13 average
Chase Briscoe ($6,000) – P19: Briscoe finished 22nd at both short flat tracks this year but this team is improving each week and a top 20 is where I see Briscoe finishing this week.
Michael McDowell ($6,200) – P23: McDowell has top 20 upside, but I think there are better options in this tier for around the same price.
Corey Lajoie ($5,700) – P26: Lajoie has been better than expected so far in 2021 after a very slow start. Since the series was at COTA, Lajoie only has one finish lower than 23rd (Pocono 1).
Quin Houff ($4,500) – P36: This makes me sick to write but yes, Quin Houff is actually an option this week. Houff finished 32nd and 34th at similar tracks this season and has finished of 32nd and 31st at his two previous NHMS races.
Justin Haley ($4,700) – P30: Like Houff I do not like this play, but he has been pretty decent of late and is in line for an 8th straight top 30 finish (when he doesn’t have car problems). Haley also finished 24th at Phoenix, but at Richmond he only completed one lap before having engine issues.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series New Hampshire 7/17

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Xfinity series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

This week is the last NASCAR Xfinity Series race for a couple of weeks as the series takes off during the Olympics (thanks, TV contracts::eye roll emoji::). If you are like me and love short track racing then you won’t be disappointed this week. New Hampshire is a short flat track that is similar to Richmond and Phoenix. You can also look at Martinsville and Nashville but I will be focusing mainly on Richmond and Phoenix as comparables. There is not a lot of experience when it comes to the Xfinity Series regulars at New Hampshire so using data from other tracks will be important this week. Christopher Bell ($11,500) is the only driver in this race with a win here, but I will get into him more in his breakdown. One thing to take note of is that a Joe Gibbs driven car has won six straight Xfinity Series races here and nine of the last eleven. There are a few drivers in JGR Toyotas that I think can keep this streak alive on Saturday.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Christopher Bell ($11,500)

Starting Position: 14th

I just need to open by venting about how disrespectful DraftKings is being to Christopher Bell in this race. This man is a TWO-TIME winner and the ONLY previous winner in this race at Loudon. Bell is only priced $400 more than Allgaier and $800 more than Cindric while starting nine and ten places further back in the field. I expect Bell to be upwards of 75% owned because of this but I cannot in good conscience fade him. The man is perfect at this track. He has run two races here with wins in both and he led 279 of 400 laps. Bell also has four wins, six top 5’s, and seven top 10’s in ten races at Phoenix and Richmond in this series. I’m sorry but I cannot find a reason DK priced him so low and in the same breath I cannot find a reason not to roster Bell on Saturday as well.

Josh Berry ($10,400)

Starting Position: 21st

Berry is back in a JRM Chevy this week for the injured Michael Annett. This season Berry ran 12 races for JRM and outperformed all expectations. At Phoenix Berry wrecked out and finished 36th, but he did win in Martinsville and finished 4th in Nashville so as long as he can keep his car clean we should see a big DKFP total day from Berry. Like with Bell, Berry is too cheap for his upside and I expect at least a top 10 with top 5 upside for him on Saturday.

Brandon Jones ($10,100)

Starting Position: 23rd

Jones is the next Joe Gibbs car in this tier that I want to roster on Saturday. I don’t know if the 19 team can get to victory lane but they should be able to pick up another top 10. Jones has run four races at Loudon but has only finished lower than 11th once (wrecked out in 2017). In his two races in the 19, Jones has finished 6th and 9th. I think game log watchers will pass on Jones at this price and keep his ownership down. Jones is coming in off two poor finishes but prior to that he had five straight top 10’s.

Daniel Hemric ($9,800)

Starting Position: 13th

Hemric is having one of the best years of his career and it’s no coincidence that he is in the best equipment he’s ever been in. Hemric has run two races at New Hampshire (2017-18) and has an 11.5 average finish. I really think Hemric is another potentially low owned driver to pair with our Bell/Berry builds. When I look at similar tracks, Hemric has run well at both Richmond and Phoenix in his career. Hemric has seven top 10’s and five top 5’s in eleven races between the two tracks.

Other Options: Austin Cindric ($10,700 – P4),Noah Gragson ($9,100 – P3), Justin Allgaier ($11,100 – P4)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

JJ Yeley ($8,400)

Starting Position: 36th

Yeley is expensive this week but the upside is incredible for him this season in this car. So far in 2021, Yeley has run six races in the Rick Ware #17 with his worse finish being a 24th place at Martinsville. Yeley did run this car at Phoenix earlier this season and finished 13th there. Yeley has run nine races in the Xfinity Series at Loudon and outside of the two races he wrecked in, he has only finished lower than 17th once.

Jordan Anderson ($7,600)

Starting Position: 33rd

Like with Yeley, Anderson is priced up some and might be overlooked for bigger names this weekend. Anderson has good equipment and he was helped by Josh Berry and Tyler Reddick getting him points to qualify for this race. Anderson did run one race this season and finished 34th, but he did have issues with his car and finished 51 laps down. I think Anderson is a top 20 car on Saturday.

Brandon Brown ($7,500)

Starting Position: 22nd

Stop me if you’ve read this before, but Brown is having a great season for a small single car team. Brown has run one race at Loudon (2109) and he finished 16th. At Phoenix this season Brown had a 3rd place finish and overall he has run great in his career there too (12.9 avg finish). I really like Brown’s chances for a top 10 this week, but is purely a GPP play.

Other Options: Sam Mayer ($8,800 – P9), Riley Herbst ($8,000 – P12), Brendan Gdovic ($7,300 – P32)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Dexter Bean ($5,400) – P37: Bean can’t really hurt you at this price starting P37. I will probably be overweight on him and it scares me
Kyle Weatherman ($5,300) – P34: Weatherman has eight finishes of 28th or better in his last nine (excluding races he’s wrecked). Bean/Weatherman is a combo I will be using to fit three top tier drivers
Patrick Emerling ($6,700) -P24: Emerling is a Loudon “ringer”. This is home track and he has plenty of experience on this track that will definitely help him on Saturday.
CJ McLaughlin ($6,300) – P39: McLaughlin is on par with Emerling and Bean for me. If you need the salary savings go Bean, but if you can afford McLaughlin, go there.
Matt Mills ($4,800) – P27: I love Mills’ price, but his starting position scares me some. Mills does have 5 straight finishe of 26th or better, so maybe the risk is worth it with him.
Spencer Boyd ($5,200) – P40: Boyd starts dead last and is cheap, so why isn’t he higher on the list? He will most likely be the chalk value play and I would rather pay up for a chalk driver and find value drivers to be different. If you are playing cash, then Boyd is your man for the value tier.

4 years ago 0 comments

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NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Atlanta 7/11/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Something a litte different …

Since we have already been to Atlanta this season and since it’s your basic 1.5-mile high tire wear track I want to change up my open a little this week and focus on something different but just as, or more, important.

I want to start by reiterating something I talked about in discord this week. Contest selection is key in NASCAR like in all other DFS sports you need to pick the contests that fit your playing style. If you are an MME type of player then max those types of contests out to optimize your potential wins. But, if you are like most of the subscribers here and play one lineup a race you need to focus on the single entry contests. There are two in particular on DraftKings that I really like and Brian will back me up on this, the $12 and $24 SINGLE ENTRY contests are the best contests I have found. If you plan on playing 2-3 lineups in the $4 or $5 large field GPP you might be better suited switching to one semi-cash style build and play the $12 SE to maximize your win potential. That contest in particular is nice because minimum cash payout is $25, more than double your entry fee.

Lineup Building:

I mentioned semi-cash style lineups in the last paragraph and if you’re not sure what I mean by that, I will elaborate. When I build single entry style lineups I look to use 3-4 high ownership safe plays, like I did last weekend in the $12 SE. I used 4 drivers I knew were going to be popular but had a big, safe upside. I rounded it out with a low-owned Kurt Busch (15%) and a semi-chalky Ricky Stenhouse (29%). In that contest, the one lineup that beat mine had 5 of the same drivers and the one difference was he went Christopher Bell over Busch.

I know a lot of people are programmed to look for low-owned plays to be “different” but in NASCAR you NEED a decent amount of chalk and find those 1 or 2 drivers that can be the difference. With a limited player pool each week you should focus on picking out the drivers who have the best shot at getting the highest point totals regardless of ownership. After that, you find 1-2 drivers who have high upside but are also a little risky. You cannot cash, ok not necessarily cannot, but it is highly unlikely that you’ll cash if you build a team full of low-owned plays. They are projected with low ownership for a reason, they aren’t in a good spot. I hope this helps some when it comes to building lineups and picking out your contests this weekend, now speaking of that, let’s get to it!!

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kyle Larson ($12,000)

Starting Position: 6th

Projected ownership: 66%

Who saw this coming? Well, if you didn’t you should have. Larson dominated the spring race here in Atlanta leading 269 of 325 laps but ended up second after Ryan Blaney ($10,500) passed him late in the race. Larson is also dominant at high tire wear tracks this season where he has the best overall speed ranking and a series-best 2.7 average finish. I believe that the path to victory lane goes through Larson on Sunday. Larson’s projected ownership is high, but when he is potentially going to be the highest-scoring driver on the slate you need to ignore that and lock him in.

William Byron ($10,000)

Starting Position: 19th

Projected Ownership: 28%

You’re going to see a trend in this tier and it continues with William Byron. The Hendrick Motorsports cars are the best in the series at 1.5-mile tracks, especially the high tire wear tracks like Atlanta. Byron has finished in the top 10 in every race at these tracks this season with an average finish of 6th. Byron also is second only to Larson when it comes to overall speed at 1.5-mile tracks in 2021. At high tire wear tracks, Byron’s average finish actually improves to 4.3. I know the price is high, but combining Larson and Byron is how I want to start my build today.

Alex Bowman ($9,400)

Starting Position: 17th

Projected Ownership: 18%

Here is the last in the trend I mentioned earlier, another HMS Chevy, this time we have Alex Bowman. I think he is too cheap today and he is projected for sub 20% ownership, yes, please! Bowman is my Kurt Busch from last week, he will be under-owned but has immense potential to have a great fantasy day and pairs well with some of the high owned plays. Bowman has the potential to be a top 5 car today based on his earlier run at Atlanta this season. In the spring, Bowman finished 3rd, he also had the 3rd best average running position (4.9) and was 5th late in a run which is key because that shows he can take care of his tires here.

Ryan Blaney ($10,500)

Starting Position: 15th

Projected Ownership: 20%

Blaney is another car who runs really well at Atlanta. Earlier this season Blaney stole the victory from Larson and in 2020 he ended up 4th. This season Blaney had an average running position of 2.7 (2nd), the second-best total speed ranking behind Larson, and was the best car late in a run. Blaney definitely has top 10 potential, and I don’t see why he can’t sweep Atlanta this season.

Kevin Harvick ($10,900)

Starting Position: 21st

Projected Ownership: 22%

Harvick is priced up this week, and with good reason. Atlanta is one of Harvick’s best tracks throughout his career and he should be a contender for the win here on Sunday. Harvick comes into this race riding an eight-race top 10 streak at ovals this season. Since April 25th (Talladega), Harvick’s lowest finish (outside of road courses) is 10th at Charlotte and he has four top 5’s in that span as well. At high tire wear tracks this season, Harvick has finished in the top 10 in all three and has an average finish of 7th.

Other Options:

I really like all three of Chase Elliott ($9,800 – P1), Kyle Busch ($10,300 – P2), and Denny Hamlin ($9,600 – P3), but their upside is capped today. I think all three have the potential to do really well here but I have to take the place differential upside and dominance (Larson) in the drivers I mentioned above over them. I will not talk anyone off these three on Sunday, but the drivers above have more upside in my opinion.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Similar to last week I am focused on using 3 dominator builds so my lineups do not have much exposure to the mid-tier. I will still give you some of the plays I do plan on using in the few 2 dominator builds I have.

Daniel Suarez ($7,70)

Starting Position: 27th

Projected Ownership: 31%

Suarez had some bad luck last week which puts him starting towards the back this week. Yes, Suarez will be higher owned this week because of this, but as I talked about in the open it’s ok to have some high ownership drivers with huge point upside. At the last two 1.5-mile tracks the Cup Series has been to Suarez has finished top 15 at both and he should be a contender for another top 15 on Sunday. Suarez is the perfect play in my eyes for two high-priced dominator builds (Larson with Harvick or Blaney) because he cheap enough to allow you to not have to go real low in the value bin which gives you higher point potential.

Kurt Busch ($8,400)

Starting Position: 8th

Projected Ownership: 10%

Busch has been running great recently after a really bad start to his season. In the last five races, Busch has finished 8th or better in four of them, including last week at Road America. Busch is another driver I think pairs well with two dominator builds and is that low-owned play that will set you apart from the field.

Austin Dillon ($7,900)

Starting Position: 13th

Projected Ownership: 17%

We saw Dillon jump in the #1 car for injured Michael Annett yesterday and have a strong showing. Overall, Dillon has been great at 1.5-mile tracks this season with three top 10’s, an average finish of 9.2 and never finishing below 12th. In the spring race here, Dillon started exactly where he is today, 13th, and finished 6th. I expect Dillon to be a top 10 car on Sunday again and if luck is on his side, maybe he can steal a top 5.

Other Options: Joey Logano ($8,800 – P10), Chris Buescher ($8,600 – P18), Ryan Preece ($7,400 – P34)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Ryan Newman ($6,100) – P29/PO 49%: Newman will carry ownership but there is so much upside here for so little salary you have to just bite the bullett here and take the consistency of Newman on Sunday.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,600) – P16/PO 32%: Stenhouse has finished 13th or better in 4 of his last 6 in Atlanta and has an average finish of 13.7 here during that 6 race span.
Michael McDowell ($5,900) – P25/PO 35%: If you don’t want to use Newman, then McDowell is your pivot. He is still going to be relatively higher-owned but not nearly as high as Newman. McDowell also carries similar upside to the 6 car.
Bubba Wallace ($6,300) – P24/PO 19%: Here is your pivot off of Stenhouse if you don’t trust him starting so high. I actually trust Ricky a little more than Bubba right now, but Wallace and the 23 car has been improving and a top 20 is definitely expected this week
Anthony Alfredo ($5,500) – P32/PO 10%: Nobody likes playng Alfredo, hell I don’t really like it, but for this price and where he starts he is a pretty solid play today. I prefer you find a way to fit the top 4 drivers in over him, but if you need the savings Alfredo is your man
Corey Lajoie ($5,700) – P26/PO 16%: Lajoie would be ahead of Alfredo but for the 6 place starting difference. Lajoie will be in the mix for a top 20, but he could also finish with a top 30 like he did in the spring here
Erik Jones ($6,900) – P22/PO 14%: Jones is a good driver at Atlanta but will need a big day for him to make value on Sunday. I think you can go here if you have the salary and want to be different in 2 dominator builds.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Atlanta 7/10/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Welcome (back) to Atlanta NASCAR! This is the first time the series has come back to a track for the second time in 2021. It is nice to have some stats from this season to go off when building lineups even though there are some drivers in different cars.

Earlier this season Martin Truex Jr. dominated this race but finished 2nd to Justin Allgaier ($10,600). This week Kyle Busch ($14,000) is in the #54 car that Truex drove to P2 but he will start from the pole and should dominate the early part of this race. This week DK did a good job pricing up Busch and making us decide to use him or not (more to come on that). Another Joe Gibbs car, Harrison Burton ($9,000) also ran really well here in the Spring and should be in for another solid day on Saturday.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Justin Allgaier ($10,600)

Starting Position: 8th

Allgaier may be from Illinois, but it seems like Atlanta is his second home. In his last nine races at Atlanta, Allgaier has one finish outside the top 11 and has four straight finishes of 6th or better. I think Allgaier will give Busch a run for the win on Saturday as he did with Truex in March.

Kyle Busch ($14,000)

Starting Position: 1st

Kyle Busch is expensive this week, good! It should keep his ownership down and make you have to decide if you can afford to play him (spoiler alert: YOU CAN). It’s not pretty, but you can build a three-dominator lineup with Busch in it. If you don’t love stars and scrubs builds you can definitely go with a two dominator build and get a little more balanced. I do think Busch leads a good amount of laps on Saturday and probably wins, but he is ranked 3rd in this tier in my opinion. It will take a lot for him to pay off his salary and I think that both Gragson and Allgaier have easier paths doing that. Busch does have six top 2 finishes in his last eight Atlanta races and has won his last two races here in the Xfinity Series

Josh Berry ($10,000)

Starting Position: 28th

Berry has run this #31 car for Jordan Anderson twice this season and both have resulted in top 10’s. In both races in this car Berry has started higher than 30th, now this week he starts 28th, but that doesn’t change his ability to get a top 10 again. Earlier this season while driving for JRM, Berry wrecked early and finished 38th so we can’t truly count that race.

Noah Gragson ($9,200)

Starting Position: 9th

Gragson is another JRM driver who has run well in every race he’s been in at Atlanta. In the Spring, Gragson started 30th but managed to finish 4th while running nearly 72% (117 laps) of the race in the top 15. Gragson has never finished outside the top 10 in his three career races here in Atlanta and has two straight top 5’s.

Austin Cindric ($11,000 – P4) is always a driver to consider and if you plan on running multiple lineups he is someone you can look to as a pivot off Busch. Cindric does not have great track history at Atlanta with only two top tens and an average finish of 11.5. It’s hard to doubt Cindric any week with the equipment and skill he possesses but I just think there may be better options for the salary this week.

Other Options: AJ Allmendinger ($10,300 – P3), Sam Mayer ($9,400 – P22), Harrison burton ($9,000 – P5), Ty Dillon ($9,700 – P30)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Jeremy Clements ($7,000)

Starting Position: 19th

Before 2019 this team did not run well here in Atlanta, but things changed in the last three seasons for Clements. Over his last three starts here Clements has managed three straight top 20 finishes and had his best career finish of 12th here in the Spring. Before having problems at Road America last week, Clements had rattled off three straight top 15’s as well. Clements actually comes in as the third-best FPTS/$ play on this slate behind Kyle and our top value play.

Santino Ferrucci ($8,000)

Starting Position: 25th

Ferrucci only has one start here at Atlanta and it was a 15th place finish in the Spring this year. In his five career Xfinity races, Ferrucci has only finished below 15th once so a top 15 seems very likely for the 26 team on Saturday. Ferrucci is relatively expensive, but if you are running two dominator builds he is a great low-owned pivot off guys like Brandon Jones, Justin Haley, or Daniel Hemric.

Brett Moffitt ($7,800)

Starting Position: 20th

Moffitt is a driver that nobody seems to play weekly, but he usually seems to have a good day. In his last six races, Moffitt has outscored his projection in half of those races. Earlier this season at Atlanta, Moffitt finished last (40th), but that was because he got involved in a wreck on lap 39. Moffitt was set for a solid day in that race running all 39 laps inside the top 15. In his only other race at Atlanta in the Xfinity Series, Moffitt finished 14th.

Other Options: Brandon Jones ($8,800 – P13), Daniel Hemric ($8,600 – P2), Justin Haley ($8,700 – P7)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Carson Ware (4,7000 – P26): Ware is the top FPTS/$ play on this slate and is too cheap for the equipment he is in
Jeffrey Earnhardt ($6,900 – P37): Highest priced value play, but has huge upside starting so far back
Colby Howard ($6,100 – P36): Howard has great track history at Atlanta (avge finish of 18th) and starts far enough back to destroy value today.
Landon Cassill ($6,800 – P21): Consistent and safe driver who will probably finish around where he starts and make value
Bayley Currey ($5,900 – P39): Similar to Earnhardt he starts at the back and has some upside for the price.
David Starr ($5,100 – P35): Starr is not a pretty play, but he is cheap and has top 25 upside on Saturday.
Jade Buford ($5,400 – P27): Buford has been running well of late, and could be a top 20 threat if things break his way.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Truck Series Knoxville (Dirt) 7/9/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Truck series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Listen, everyone, I’m going to be blunt with you all, this whole race sucks as far as DFS purposes go. We won’t know the starting grid until about an hour before the green flag and it is really a crapshoot when it comes to who will do well. I will recommend playing light, don’t empty your bankroll because of a birthday or silly narrative you find…Brian looking at you…but instead, put a little on it and enjoy the action Friday night.

Instead of giving you the usual categories I am going to rank my favorite drivers in two categories. The First will be the Truck Series regulars, and the second will be the dirt track ringers. I will be in discord giving updates after the heat races to any changes that may be needed. One positive is that ALL trucks will qualify for this race so there is no need to worry about any drivers being sent home. We did have practice on Thursday night so I will at least be able to use that as somewhat of a basis on how drivers could run.

As with every week, each tier of drivers is listed in order of preference

NASCAR DFS: Truck Series Regulars

Stewart Friesen ($10,400)

Single lap practice rank: 22nd

Friesen is the class of the field when it comes to dirt track racing in NASCAR. Over his career in the Truck Series, Friesen has raced on dirt five times with three top 5’s and a victory in 2019 at Eldora. Friesen has also led 152 laps in the five races.

Matt Crafton ($9,100)

Single lap practice rank: 2nd

Matt Crafton is one of the better, if not second best to Friesen, in the field of Truck Series regulars when it comes to dirt. Crafton has plenty of experience with eight total dirt track races in his career. Over those races, Crafton has amassed seven top 10’s, two top 5’s, and a win in 2017 at Eldora.

Hailie Deegan ($6,800)

Single lap practice rank: 5th

Deegan didn’t run great at Bristol earlier this season, but she did get a top 20 (19th). In her career before this season Deegan has been superb on dirt. In three dirt races at lower series, Deegan has two second place finishes and a win. On Thursday Deegan was top 5 in practice and really seemed like she had a good feel for the track.

Todd Gilliland ($8,900)

Single lap practice rank: 29th

Gilliland is not generally known as a dirt track specialist but he has done well in his few NASCAR dirt races. Gilliland has run three dirt track races in his NASCAR career and has two top 5’s including a 4th place finish at Bristol (dirt) this season. In practice on Thursday, Gilliland did show some good speed early and looked to have a handle on this track. Depending on how he looks in his qualifying heat, Gilliland has a shot at being our low-owned gem and lead us back to the green like he has done a few times this season already.

Austin Wayne Self ($5,400)

Single lap practice rank: 21st

Self finished 10th earlier this season at Bristol, but that wasn’t a fluke. In his career, Self has run four races on dirt and has an average finish of 12.5 with his worse finish being 18th place. Self could end up being one of the top value plays on the slate depending on where he qualifies.

NASCAR DFS: Dirt Track Specialists

Donny Schatz ($10,700)

Single lap practice rank: 4th

Schatz is one of the most accomplished dirt track racers in the history of the sport. After 31 years of racing on dirt, Schatz is making his NASCAR debut at a track he knows well. Schatz is a ten time winner of the Knoxville Nationals as well has having 300 World of Outlaws wins (3rd most). Schatz has also won ten WoO championships. With all this being said I really think Schatz could be a sleeper pick to win this race. I know the price is steep, but it’s hard to not consider him with his credentials and the speed he showed on Thursday.

Brian Brown ($10,100)

Single lap practice rank: 9th

Brian Brown will be in the KBM #51 on Friday night and while he isn’t as accomplished as Schatz he is a great dirt driver. Brown is a seven time champion at the Knoxville Nationals and set the fastest lap time at Knoxville earlier this year. We know that Brown is in one of the best trucks in the series and should easily compete for a top 5 on Friday.

Kyle Strickler ($7,000)

Single lap practice rank: 19th

Kyle Strickler is replacing Spencer Boyd in the #20 truck this week and is himself a dirt track veteran. Strickler has run two races in the NASCAR Truck Series, both at Eldora. After a wreck in thee 2018 Eldora race, Strickler came back in 2019 and finished 18th. Strickler ran a top 20 practice lap on Thursday and depending where he qualifies he could be a top mid-tier pla

NASCAR DFS: Cup/Xfinity Regulars

There are really only two drivers that are hopping into a truck ride this week that would be viable for me. Chase Briscoe ($11,000) is the top priced driver and will be popular I believe. Briscoe has four top 10’s in four dirt races in his career as well as three top 5’s. Chase also has an average finish of 4th with his worst finish being a 7th place finish.

Josh Berry ($6,900) is a pretty good play for me at this price. Berry is back in the #25 for Rackley W.A.R. on Friday. After practice on Thursday, Berry could be a contender for a top 10 finish after coming home with the 17th fastest lap. If Berry qualifies poorly then at this price for his upside could be key.

Last but not least, well almost least based on his practice times, Michael Annett is hopping into the 02 that Kris Wright usually pilots. Annett did not have a good go of it in practice finishing 39th with only Jennifer Joe Cobb running slower.

4 years ago 0 comments

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NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Road America 7/4/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Happy Independence Day everyone stateside! Usually, NASCAR heads to Daytona for July 4th weekend, but this year they are north, REALLY north, all the way to Minnesota, specifically Elkhart Lake. Road America, the home of this weekend’s race, is a 4.048-mile, 14 turn road course that is only of a select few tracks that have kept its original track configuration since its inception. This marks the first time the Cup Series has been here in nearly 65 years.

When it comes to road courses we can almost always count on the usual suspects like Chase Elliott ($10,600) and Martin Truex ($10,300) to run well, but we’ve seen both Kyle Larson ($10,500) and Kyle Busch ($10,100) become better road racers recently, with the latter winning the Xfinity race on Saturday. There are a couple of other drivers that may be sneaky plays on Sunday and might carry very little ownership, but I will save those for the driver breakdowns.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Chase Elliott ($10,600)

Starting Position: 34th

I wasn’t originally going to have Elliott in this write-up because he is a known play at road courses, but I need to explain why he starts 34th today. Elliott was unable to run a qualifying lap during the allotted 25 minutes. He tried multiple times but a yellow flag came out for two different incidents on the track forcing him to stop his lap. Elliott ran out of time in the end but this poor starting position has nothing to do with his ability on this track or his car. He is the top overall play…well second-best overall play now.

Kyle Busch ($10,100)

Starting Position: 40th

Busch is now the top play on this slate, but will probably carry the most ownership on the slate (which is why I listed him behind Elliott). Kyle did not take a lap during Sunday’s qualifying since he was already starting in the back for going to a backup car. My only fear is that Busch does not know what this car can do and it will take him some laps to get it right and get some damage while fighting through the field. Going back to 2015, Busch has run 12 road course races in the Cup Series and he has one win, seven top 5’s, and eleven top 10’s. This season at Sonoma (the most relevant comparison to RA), Busch finished 5th and had the 2nd fastest late run speed and the 3rd fastest total speed. Busch will be starting at the rear on Sunday, so maybe that could lower his ownership but not for me.

Kyle Larson ($10,600)

Starting Position: 2nd

I know both Elliott and Truex have a better pedigree when it comes to road courses, but how do you pick against the best driver going this season. Coming into the weekend Larson has led 30% of all laps run this season in this series. In 2021 Larson has two top 5’s and a victory in three road course races this season. Larson ran the 9th fastest lap in practice, but I am not putting too much stock in these times. A lot of the drivers were just trying to get a feel for the course since most have never raced here, or at least haven’t raced here in years.

Joey Logano ($9,800)

Starting Position: 14th

Joey Logano might be the most overlooked road course performer in the entire Cup Series field right now. Over the past two seasons, Logano has run five road course races and has finished in the top 10 every time as well as four top 5’s. Logano also has an average finish of 4th in these five races and his worst finish is 9th.

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,300)

Starting Position: 9th

Truex, like Elliott, tends to dominate at road courses, and Sunday should be no different. In a post-practice interview, Truex said he wasn’t 100% sure he knew how to run this course and was concerned about that. I think he may have figured out in qualifying and will also be overlooked because of Busch and Elliott and to a lesser extent Larson.

Denny Hamlin ($9,700)

Starting Position: 6th

Hamlin ran the most laps in practice on Saturday (16) and was 6th fastest. This season at road courses, Hamlin has an average finish of 8.3 with his best finish coming at the Daytona road course (3rd). This season has not been good for Hamlin, while he does lead the regular-season point standings but he is winless. I don’t think Hamlin wins on Sunday, but a top 5 is something I think can happen for the 11 team.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Kevin Harvick ($8,600)

Starting Position: 25th

Harvick did not have a good qualifying session on Sunday and will start 25th. We did see Harvick on this track Saturday afternoon in the Xfinity Series and he came home with a top 10. Since 2018, Harvick has seven top 10’s in 11 Cup races at road courses and has an average finish of 11.8. I thought Harvick was underpriced going into this race, but he is ridiculously underpriced for his upside. I like using Harvick as a “top tier” substitute in Busch/Elliott lineups.

Austin Cindric ($8,300)

Starting Position: 5th

With all the top drivers starting at the back of the field Cindric will likely be overlooked completely. Cindric was fast in both practice and qualifying as well as running great in the Xfinity Series race and should be a darkhorse contender for the win on Sunday. We know Cindric is great at road courses and seems to have the best Penske car in the field going in.

I really think we need to focus on the high-priced top-tier drivers and pair them with the plethora of value plays in this race so I won’t have much exposure to the mid-tier. Outside of Harvick and Cindric, I am only interested in :

Kurt Busch ($8,800) – P16
Christopher Bell ($8,00) – P13
Brad Keselowski ($8,500) – P20
Alex Bowman ($8,100) – P10

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Austin Dillon ($6,800) – P37: Dillon ran into the same problems that Elliott did. Incredible upside for this price
Chase Briscoe ($6,700) – P35: See Dillon and Elliott
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($5,900) – P38: No issue here with the #47, just ran into the same issues as Briscoe, Dillon, and Elliott
Ty Dillon ($5,700) – P39: Cheap and can’t hurt you. So many drivers in worse equipment starting ahead of him that he will surely pass. I see Dillon as a top 30, maybe top 25 car.
Bubba Wallace ($6,000) – P36: Wallace’s team had to change his transmission after qualifying so be aware of that when using him. Wallace is coming off his first top 5 finish of his career and was not too pumped of coming to a road course though.
Ryan Preece ($6,100) – P32: Preece will start from the rear, but has similar upside to Ty Dillon
Ryan Newman ($6,300) – P28: Newman is a decent road course driver and did run the Trans-Am race this morning to get track experience.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Road America 7/3/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

This weekend, the Xfinity Series heads to Wisconsin, specifically Elkhart Lake, between Milwaukee and Green Bay. Road America is a long and storied track that will be hosting its 12th ever Xfinity race here on Saturday. There will be four previous winners (Cindric, Allgaier, Clements, and Allmendinger) in the field so there is no lack of experience in the field for this race.

Both Kyle Busch ($10,900) and Kevin Harvick ($9,900) will be in the field for Saturday’s race trying to get some experience for their Cup Series race on Sunday. I honestly believe they are both severely underpriced by DraftKings which will lead to some pretty massive ownership. While I am not happy about the pricing and the potential ownership it would be ill-advised of me to not suggest that you play these drivers on Saturday.

Lastly, this is a live practice and qualifying race on Saturday so all of these plays will be based on how the cars ran in practice on Friday. Make sure you are in the WinDaily Sports Discord on Saturday after 12:30 EDT to see my updates.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kyle Busch ($10,900)

Single Lap Practice Rank: 7th

This will be Kyle’s first time on the track at Road America, which is why he is running in this race, but he has become somewhat of a road course expert in this season. Busch already has a win in his only road course race this season in the Xfinity Series, COTA, where he led 35 of 46 laps. I really think DraftKings mispriced Busch this week, he should around the $12K mark, but here we are with him over a thousand dollars cheaper. Busch will be chalk, but I don’t think you can fade him in any type of contest this week.

Austin Cindric ($10,700)

Single Lap Practice Rank: 1st

Cindric is one of the best road course racers in the Xfinity Series and how well he ran in practice should be a threat for the pole. With only 45 laps in this race, we aren’t chasing dominator points but if we can get them why not try. Since 2019 in the Xfinity Series, Cindric has run 11 races on road courses and he has four wins, nine top 5’s, and ten top 10’s. Cindric has an average finish of 3.7 and has led 181 laps.

Justin Allgaier ($9,500)

Single Lap Practice Rank: 3rd

Allgaier is not necessarily known as a road course specialist, but he does have a good track record over the past three seasons. In eleven road course races, Allgaier has three top 5′ and seven top 10’s. If Allgaier ends up on the pole or in the top 3 I may back off him some, but I could see him coming at very low ownership. With all the names pilled up above him in the field, Allgaier will quite possibly be overlooked and we need to take advantage of that on Saturday. Allgaier’s salary is perfect to pair with a Cindric/Busch build and still have plenty of salary remaining to build a lineup you can feel confident in.

A.J Allmendinger ($10,300) was fourth in practice on Friday and will be a threat, as always, on a road course. I think A.J. will carry some ownership like he usually does on this type of track. Allmendinger will be in my player pool on Saturday but I think there are some better choices.

Ty Gibbs ($10,500)

Single Lap Practice Rank: 6th

Gibbs will be in the #81 for Joe Gibbs this weekend, their 5th entry into this race and how can you deny running a car with Gibbs in it. This season Gibbs has run two road course races and has finished top 5 in both. Included in these was his FIRST CAREER race in the Xfinity Series where he led 14 laps on his way to victory lane. One build that will be very different in my opinion will be running Busch/Cindric/Gibbs together. I don’t think people will want to run a stars and scrubs type of build but there is enough value in that tier to make this work.

Other Options: Kevin Harvick ($9,900) – Harvick wasn’t fast in practice (22nd), but I need to see where he qualifies before I decide if I want to use him. Daniel Hemric ($9,300) – Top 5 practice speed, another of the Gibbs cars that could be a factor Saturday. Kaz Grala ($9,100) – Road course ringer in the #31 for Jordan Anderson, had top 20 speed in practice.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Alex Labbe ($7,200)

Single Lap Practice Rank: 9th

How do we get the three of the top tier drivers I mentioned you ask, well enter Alex Labbe. On a normal oval track, I would be wary of using Labbe at this price, but Labbe is another road course specialist. In his career, Labbe has eight top 10 finishes in 95 races, half of those top 10’s came in his 13 road course races. Labbe has an average finishing position of 14.3 in those 13 road course races. We see that Labbe showed top 10 speed so we know he has that potential. Labbe could be a key driver in three dominator builds for us on Saturday.

Jeb Burton ($7,600)

Single Lap Practice Rank: 2nd

Burton is another driver not known as a road course driver, but this season something clicked for him. In three races at similar tracks this season, Burton has two top 10’s and a top 5 which were all firsts for him. Burton has never run here at Elkhart Lake, but he showed he can handle this track on Friday in practice by running second to Cindric by under a second. Burton is a piece I want to use in Busch/Cindric/Allgaier builds on Saturday.

Andy Lally ($7,800)

Single Lap Practice Rank: 13th

Maybe I am showing my local Long Island bias (Northport) here, but I think Lally is another great play come Saturday. Lally is solely a road course racer in the Xfinity Series, and the stats show why. He has run 16 races in his career, but more specifically Lally has run four races here at Road America. In his four races, Lally has three top 10’s, a top 5, and an average finish of 9.3 with his lowest finish being 15th.

Other Options: Justin Haley ($8,900) – Solid road course driver, but needs a great day to pay off his price. Preston Pardus ($7,700) – Good road course driver, if you can’t get to Lally, Pardus is a good pivot.

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Myatt Snider ($6,900) – Fast in practice, too cheap for the upside
Jeremy Clements ($6,500) – Top 10 speed, WAY too cheap if qualifies outside the top 10. A previous winner here as well
Ryan Ellis ($5,800) – Ellis has five races here at Road America, but his average finish is deceiving with 2 DNF’s in his first two races here. Since those races, Ellis has finished 21st or better in all three. Ellis was 18th on practice on Friday
Jade Buford ($6,100) – 19th here last season, top 15 in practice. I like the potential upside here
Matt Jaskol ($4,500) – Finished 20th in practice on Friday. Jaskol also finished 19th in his only career road course race this season in this same car. As the lowest priced driver in the field, he is worth a look in three dominator builds, especially if he qualifies poorly
Kyle Weatherman ($5,300) – Weatherman will most likely be low owned but he has top 25 potential. I need to see where he starts before I add him to my player pool but he did finish 21st here last season and has a career avg finish of 22nd on road courses.
Spencer Pumpelly ($5,900) – Finished 19th in his only career Xfinity race at COTA this season. Ran a top 20 lap in practice on Friday.

*** As always with qualifying races PLEASE make sure to check discord before building lineups. I will update with any changes in there ONLY since I will be at work post qualifying.***

4 years ago 0 comments

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