NASCAR Cup

Welcome to the first-ever NASCAR DFS Pit Stop weekend preview edition! This week all three series head to “The Lady in Black”, Darlington Raceway! This is one of the coolest weekends on the schedule each season as it is throwback weekend. For long-time fans of the sport, we get to see old paint schemes that we haven’t seen in years, decades even, back on the track in an updated form. Some schemes are only a few years old, but some date all the way back to 1959 with the two Petty GMS Chevy’s in the Cup Series.

Darlington is one of the more difficult tracks on the circuit and is not typically a place you see young, inexperienced drivers succeed here. Darlington’s difficult nature stems from its egg shape, which was because of a logistical problem as the track was being built 73 years ago in 1949. The shape of the track is not the only challenge. Darlington was built for speeds topping out at 95 mph. Today speeds continually exceed 200-mph at the end of each straightaway. Another difficulty is that the track is narrow, with the fastest groove being the top. Drivers who run this groove exceptionally well include Noah Gragson and Tyler Reddick. Drivers need to pay more attention to the track than to their competition and try to avoid earning the Darlington “stripe”. Many drivers have said this is the only track where you need to race the track, not the other drivers.

NASCAR DFS: Truck Series

Laps: 147 (102.9 dominator points)

This race was dominated by John Hunter Nemechek but he came home second when the checkers waved. Darlington is not a track that is for the weak and inexperienced like I mentioned. In the last race here in September 2021, Only one driver starting outside the top 30 finished in the top 10 and the remaining nine top 10 finishers started 13th or better. Going deeper, only 2 drivers started worse than 30th and finished in the top 20. Needless to say, we aren’t looking to play the place differential game here, instead we want to look for drivers who can lead laps and finish in the top 10.

Looking at the optimal lineup from the last race here, we had five our six drivers starting 29th or better, including winner Sheldon Creed who won from the pole, Nemechek, and Austin Wayne Self who started from P16. Depending on how qualifying shakes out, we could be seeing a similar lineup build.

NASCAR DFS: Xfinity Series

Laps: 147 (102.9 Dominator points)

This week we have two Cup Series ringers joining the field on Saturday in Chase Elliott and Tyler Reddick. Elliott will be in the JRM #88 on Saturday and should be the class of the field and is the highest priced driver, but not so high where he can’t make value. As for Reddick, he will be in the Big Machine Vodka #48 so his equipment is not as superior as Elliott’s.

Last season in the fall Darlington race we had four drivers starting 15th or worse finish in the top 10, a contrast to what we saw in the Truck Series. Last weeks winner, Josh Berry, had a great run in his first Darlington race last spring when he finished 2nd, led 8 laps, and had an average running position of 8.4. I think Berry should once again be a factor in this race and being priced under $10K makes him an easy to fit play as well.

Looking back at the Fall race here, the optimal linep for that race had FOUR drivers starting 22nd or worse. I am not saying that is necessarily the best build, but if we get drivers like Reddick or John Hunter Nemechek starting in the 20’s we might need to take that same approach. One other driver who ran exceptionally, and surprisingly, well last season here is Alex Labbe. In two races at Darlington last year, Labbe averaged a 10th place finish (top 10 in both races), had an average place differential of +12.5 (best among drivers running both races), and averaged 46.5 DKFP per race.

NASCAR DFS: Cup Series

Laps: 293 (205.1 Dominator Points)

Last fall we had two drivers absolutely dominate this race, Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin. These two drivers led a combined 302 laps of 367 and were necessary if you wanted a takedown. Now, we only have 293, but if we have another race with two drivers leading over 100 laps it will be the same. Chris Buescher was one of only five drivers to finish top 10 in both races here last season so he will be another driver we need to give a hard look at on Sunday as well.

Over the previous two seasons here at Darlington, both Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. have been the best of the best. They have combined to win three of the four races and have each finished top 10 in three of the four as well. Hamlin actually has three top 5’s in that span and two for MTJ. Truex and Hamlin rank 1-2 in DKFP per race in the last four (among drivers who ran all four races). Kevin Harvick is the only driver in the last two seasons to have a top 10 in all four races. Harvick could end up being a chalk play at $8,800 on DK this weekend, depending on how he qualifies.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022. Check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

Welcome back to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for Sunday’s race from The Monster Mile, Dover Motor Speedway. I’m not gonna lie, Dover can produce some of the most boring races in NASCAR because of how hard it is to pass at this track. On the other hand, we can get a race as we had in the Xfinity Series where there was some late-race excitement and pit strategy that led to a great finish.

Looking over the practice and qualifying info it appears that once again the four cars from Hendrick Motorsports will dominate this race. Last season they finished in the top four spots, lead 382 of 400 laps, and were the top four highest-scoring drivers on DraftKings. Alex Bowman (winner) was the only one of the four to start outside the top 10 in that race. We have that same scenario with William Byron starting P33 on Sunday while his three teammates start 3rd, 4th, and 6th.

I know this is a different car, but I think Dover is a track where experience matters no matter the vehicle and that is what will win on Sunday.

Roster construction

Sunday’s race is 400 laps which means we have 280 dominator points on DraftKings and those points will go a long way to getting a takedown. Five of the top ten DKFP drivers started in the top 10 last season and six in the top 16. Chasing place differential in this race is not the best option in this race instead, we want to pinpoint dominators and finishing position. Of course, you can grab one or two drivers who will be top 10 cars who start near the back, but you should look to pair them with drivers starting near the front.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators) ($9K +)

Kyle Larson ($11,800)

Starting Position: 3rd

Kyle Larson is at the top of the charts in pretty much every single category when it comes to Dover over the past few seasons. In his last three races at Dover, Larson has led an average of 139 laps, run 68 fastest laps, averages 110.7 DKFP, and 95.2 FDFP per race (all are series best). Larson also has an average finish of 2nd, an average running position of 2.9, and finished top 3 in all three races. In practice on Saturday Larson was top 5 in 5,10,15, and 20 lap averages. I think you know where I am going with this, play Larson on Sunday. I know the price is sky high, but the return could be huge.

William Byron ($11,000)

Starting Position: 33rd

Byron had some bad luck on Saturday and crashed right at the beginning of practice and in turn, will be starting at the rear of the field. I am not worried about this in the least about the 24 car on Sunday though. We saw Kyle Busch have a great race in a backup car at Vegas earlier this season and Byron’s team always brings fast cars. Byron has back-to-back 4th place finishes at Dover and should be a contender for a third straight top 5 finish. At Dover last season we saw Byron’s teammate, Chase Elliot, start at the back and finish third. Everything points to Byron being just fine on Sunday and while he will be uber chalk, it’s similar to the Ryan Sieg chalk we had to just eat on Saturday to cash.

Chase Elliott ($11,300)

Starting Position: 4th

I know it may look like it, but I am not just listing all the Hendrick drivers. They just happen to be the best options in this race and while it doesn’t seem feasible, you can roster all three $11K drivers in this race. If you remove his wreck in 2020 and engine failure in 2019, Elliott only has one finish outside the top 5 in his 9 other starts at Dover. In practice on Saturday, Elliott’s car improved over the session as he was the top driver in 15 and 20 lap average speed.

Kyle Busch ($9,100)

Starting Position: 10th

If anyone can break up the Hendrick party at the front, it could be Kyle Busch. For whatever reason, Kyle has not run well here in the spring, but Dover is one of his better tracks. Before having a mechanical issue last season, Busch had an average finish of 7.6 in the previous five races. In Saturday’s practice session, Busch was 5th in 10 and 15 lap average and 3rd in 20 lap average. Busch has an outside chance to win this race and is a pretty good bet for a top 5.

Other Options: Martin Truex Jr. ($9,800 – P18), Alex Bowman ($10,100 – P6), Joey Logano ($10,600 – P22), Kevin Harvick ($9,300 – P11)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Austin Cindric ($7,300)

Starting Position: 12th

You all probably expected to see Tyler Reddick in this position, and he will have his moment later. If we want to roster two $11K+ drivers, we need a cheaper mid-tier option, enter Austin Cindric. In his rookie season, Cindric has been very up and down but he does have four top 20 finishes in his last five races. This will be Cindrics first Cup Series Dover race, but in the Xfinity Series, he was outstanding. Cindric had four straight top 3 finishes including a victory in his last Xfinity Series Dover race. In seven races at Dover, Cindric never finished lower than 9th in the Xfinity Series. I know using a risky at this track is risky, but Cindric isn’t a typical rookie.

Tyler Reddick ($8,800)

Starting Position: 26th

If you are playing cash games, then a core of Larson/Byron/Reddick will be the path. In GPP you can still play Reddick and you can use him with Byron if you so desire. Reddick has been so close to winning so many times this season and while that win will come for him I don’t think it will be on Sunday. Reddick had issues in practice which also explains his poor qualifying effort. I still view Reddick as a top 10 car on Sunday.

Ross Chastain ($8,600)

Starting Position: 7th

It is hard to doubt Chastain in 2022. This team has been dominant pretty much all season, but especially of late. Chastain has a series-best six top 5’s in 2022 to go along with his two victories. Dover is a track where you have to drive hard and physically that is something Ross Chastain does exceptionally well.

Other Options: Christopher Bell ($8,100 – P17), Daniel Suarez ($7,900 – P8), Kurt Busch ($7,500 – P16), Austin Dillon ($7,600 – P24)

Value Tier (Under $7K)

1. Aric Almirola ($6,600) – P27: Almirola should be a mid-teens driver on Sunday based on his track history. In cash games, Almirola is another safe option to use with the core I mentioned earlier.
2. Cole Custer ($6,100) – P30: Custer appears to have this track figured out in his young career. In three career races at Dover, Custer finished either 10th or 11th. Custer has been good this season, that is when his car makes it through the race. In ten races, Custer has finished 23rd or better in seven of ten races. His three finishes lower than 23rd were all races when he wrecked or had engine issues.
3. Erik Jones ($6,800) – P25: Jones is in the same category as Almirola and will most likely be a mid-teens driver on Sunday. In four of the last six races, Jones has finished 14th or better. That is where I see him finishing on Sunday.
4. Ryan Preece ($5,700) – P15: Preece is in the RWR #15 car this week, but he showed speed that no Rick Ware car has shown in 2022. I believe that Stewart-Haas Racing has had a hand in building this car for Sunday. Preece was top 5 in all speed averages on Saturday and while he had speed he is still super risky. For me, Preece is a great GPP play.
5. Justin Haley ($5,500) – P14: Haley is another risky driver, but we know what we are getting in this 31 car. Haley has back-to-back top 15’s and has four in his last six races. Haley showed top 10 long-run speed in practice on Saturday.
6. AJ Allmendinger ($6,200) – P19: Dinger had a great showing on Saturday, and while I don’t expect him to be a top 5 car on Sunday, he could be a top 15 car in attrition is in his favor.
7. Ty Dillon ($5,900 – P31), Todd Gilliland ($5,400 – P34), and Harrison Burton ($5,000 – P35): All three drivers here have limited upside, but are key pieces to getting our three $11K drivers into lineups. I listed them in order of preference above. None of them are going to blow the doors off and finish top 10, but a top 25 would give you what you need from them.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022. Check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

Happy Easter and welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop breakdown for the Cup Series Bristol Dirt race! I’m just going to come out and say it, these races suck. I know I am in the minority with that statement but it’s how I feel. I have never watched REAL dirt racing so it is not something I am accustomed to and it is not something I want in NASCAR. These vehicles are meant to drive on paved roads, not dirt especially manufactured dirt tracks. These races are not overly enjoyable for me to watch, but also they are next to impossible to predict for DFS and betting purposes as well.

2021 Lookback

Looking back over the 2021 version of the Bristol Dirt race we see that it is similar to how the truck races played out in 2021. Joey Logano led the second-most laps (61) on his way to winning the inaugural race. Logano was one of only 5 drivers to lead a lap in that race. Only 31 cars of the 39 that started this race finished the race and only 19 of those cars finished on the lead lap. Martin Truex Jr. led the most laps in that race (126) but finished as the last car on the lead lap.

Practice:

We had two practice sessions on Friday afternoon, so the teams have a good idea of what their cars can do. Also, the drivers got a feel for the track and how the car will respond. Kyle Larson is one driver who took what they learned in the first practice and worked on their car and were much happier after Happy Hour.

Roster construction

On Sunday night we have 250 laps of “dirt track” racing so that means we have 175 dominator points available. As I mentioned earlier, we saw two drivers dominate this race in 2021 and we saw the same thing happen Saturday night in the truck race. It’ll be important to get the two dominators right when building for Sunday because of this. There are a good group of drivers in the mid and value tiers so this seems like a race where building balanced lineups is the way to go.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators) ($9K +)

Kyle Larson ($11,200) [ Proj. Ownership %: 33%]

Starting Position: 5th

Larson is the best of the best when it comes to dirt racing and he should be considered the favorite on Sunday night. Like I said in the open, Larson’s team worked on his car after the first practice on Friday and gave him a great car. Larson was tops in 20 and 25 lap average and was top five in 5, 10, and 15 lap average in final practice. In his heat, Larson started 6th and finished 3rd. Larson should push Christopher Bell for the early lead on Sunday night and is capable of dominating this race from beginning to end.

Tyler Reddick ($9,200) [ Proj. Ownership %: 41%]

Starting Position: 3rd

Reddick is another one of the top dirt racers in this race. In his heat race on Saturday, Reddick won and led 11 of 15 laps. Looking back at Friday’s practices, Reddick was atop the leaderboard in 5, 10, and 15 lap average. With how well Reddick has run in 2022 combined with his dirt racing prowess I view Reddick as a top 5 car with the potential to get his first career Cup Series win.

Christopher Bell ($10,800) [ Proj. Ownership %: 28%]

Starting Position: 2nd

Bell, like Larson and Reddick, is a first-class dirt racer and should be a threat to win this race as well. In his heat on Saturday, Bell led 6 laps on his way to victory after starting 5th. In practice on Friday, Bell was top five in both 5 and 10 lap average but he did dip after that. I am not worried about his car falling off after 10 laps and view Bell as a top 5 car on Sunday. Another positive for Bell is that he was helping spot youngster Buddy Kofoid in the Truck Series race so it’s safe to assume he gained some knowledge watching that race happen live and hearing how the track was running throughout the race.

Chase Briscoe ($9,800) [ Proj. Ownership %: 16%]

Starting Position: 4th

You are probably noticing a trend, the top plays are all starting upfront. Outside of Cole Custer starting from the pole, all the drivers starting inside the top 5 are great plays, including Briscoe. Like the previous three drivers, Briscoe is an accomplished dirt racer both in and out of NASCAR. Briscoe has a win (2018) in the Truck Series on dirt and has an average finish of 3.6 in his final three truck races on dirt. Aside from his great record on dirt, Briscoe has been having a career year with an average finish of 9th (removing COTA) and finished 3rd in his heat on Saturday.

William Byron ($10,000) [ Proj. Ownership %: 21%]

Starting Position: 19th

So we already broke down the dirt “experts” starting up front, and now we have a great place differential play in William Byron. Byron is the only multi-race winner in 2022 thus far and I am not predicting him to win this race, but a top 10 is definitely in reach. Rudy Fugle, Byron’s crew chief, has a dirt racing background so that gives Byron a boost. Last season at Bristol dirt, Byron had an average running position of 4.9, finished 2nd in the first stage, and came home 6th at the end of the day.

Other Options: Joey Logano ($10,600 – P10), Ryan Blaney ($9,400 – P25), Chase Elliott ($10,300 – P9), Martin Truex Jr. ($9,600 – P30)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,700) [ Proj. Ownership %: 21%]

Starting Position: 16th

Stenhouse has not been great or even good for that matter in 2022, but dirt is the great equalizer. This weekend Stenhouse has had a good car. In final practice on Friday, Stenhouse was only behind Reddick in 5 and 10 lap average. His car did fall off a little as the practice session went on, but he did rebound to finish with the 13th best 30 lap average. Last season at this race Stenhouse finished 2nd after running a smart, clean race. As a World of Outlaws team owner and another dirt racing expert, I expect Stenhouse to pull out a top 5 this year on the dirt.

Austin Dillon ($7,400)[ Proj. Ownership %: 15%]

Starting Position: 12th

Austin Dillon is having a great 2022 so far and is coming off a third-place finish in Martinsville, his third straight top 10. This weekend, Dillon has been fast ranking in the top 10 in all speed segments in happy hour outside of 5 lap average where he was 12th. In his heat, Austin started 8th but climbed up to 5th at the end. Dillon is an exceptional dirt racer who had some bad luck at this race last season.

Alex Bowman ($8,900) [ Proj. Ownership %: 11%]

Starting Position: 8th

Bowman had a top 5 car at this race last season, but he had issues under the hood and ended up 22nd. In 2022, Bowman has been running great race after great race. This season since Auto Club, Bowman has an average finish of 7.8 which ranks second-best during that stretch. Bowman was third in his heat race on Saturday and had top ten speed in 15 and 20 lap average in Friday’s final practice.

Higher Owned Plays:

All drivers listed above are the low-owned plays to pair with some of the higher owned drivers in the top tier. There are a good amount higher projected owned drivers who are great plays in this tier as well. All four drivers listed below are projected at 25% or higher but they are safer, place differential plays.

• Ross Chastain ($8,500) – P33
• Denny Hamlin ($8,700) – P34
• Daniel Suarez ($8,300) – P21
• Kevin Harvick ($8,100) – P32

Value Tier (Under $7K)

1. Todd Gilliland ($5,400) – P23: Gilliland has been the best car in this tier, but because of this and his low price he will be super chalky. Gilliland projects around 30% ownership with the next highest driver being Aric Almirola at 16%. I do like Gilliland this week, but for GPP’s you can pass on him and look elsewhere.
2. Michael McDowell ($6,400) – P17: McDowell is the anti-Gilliland this week. He was faster in happy hour, but not as fast as Gilliland, and is a thousand dollars more. One major difference is the projected ownership, McDowell only projects at 12%. If you are going with some of the lower-owned mid-tier options in SE tournaments, go, Gilliland, if not then look to McDowell.
3. Justin Haley ($5,600) – P6: I know Haley is scary starting from P6, but he has been fast. Haley won his heat from 2nd leading all 15 laps and in happy hour his car got better as he ran laps. Haley was top 10 in 25 and 30 lap average.
4. Aric Almirola ($6,800) – P31: Almirola has had a fast car all weekend, which is why he comes in as the projected second highest owned driver in this tier. Almirola is the safer play in the high $6K salary range over McDowell at not much higher ownership.
5. Ty Dillon ($6,200) – P7: Ty Dillon, much like his brother, is a great dirt track racer and it has shown all weekend. Dillon is similar to Haley where his starting position will scare people off which is why he projects at 5% ownership.
6. Josh Williams ($4,900) – P36: Williams starts dead last and his car has not been that good. All that being said, Williams is a veteran driver who, with attrition, could pull a top 30.
7. Noah Gragson ($5,300) – P28: Gragson is the #16 for Kaulig this weekend and his car has been faster than expected. In happy hour on Friday, Gragson was top 20 in all speed segments. I view Gragson as a top 25 car with mid-teens upside with attrition.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022. Check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Blue Emu Pain Relief 400 from Martinsville Speedway! The Paper Clip as it is otherwise known is a 1/2 mile short track and is the shortest track on the NASCAR circuit. Last season in both races at Martinsville we saw similar outcomes. In both races, we saw two drivers lead over 300 laps but neither driver won the race. Instead, someone who led 9 (Alex Bowman) and 20 (Martin Truex Jr.) won the races.

Denny Hamlin is the one constant in both of the Martinsville races last season leading 379 laps combined. Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney also lead a lot of laps in those races in 2021. Another thing to expect in Saturday’s race is a lot of drivers being a lap down when it finishes. In 2021 only 25 drivers and 18 drivers finished the races on the lead lap.

Roster construction

Based on what we’ve seen at this track previously, rostering two dominators will be key. After deciding on the dominators, finding the right place differential plays will be key. Looking at pricing, a balanced build with 2 drivers from each pricing category is the best path to cashing I believe.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators) ($9K +)

Denny Hamlin ($10,300)

Starting Position: 25th

As you read in the open, Hamlin was dominant here at Martinsville in 2021 and Saturday should be no different. After winning at Richmond last week, Hamlin’s confidence has to be back at a high level. Hamlin starts 25th, so he is a best of both worlds play, I think Hamlin will get to the lead at some point in this 400 lap race and will finish top 5.

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,500)

Starting Position: 20th

Martinsville has to be Truex’s favorite track looking at his recent history here. In his last ten races here, Truex has three wins and seven top 5 finishes. The Joe Gibbs Toyota’s were not really fast in practice, except for Kyle Busch, but I am confident that Truex (and Hamlin) will get to the front and be in contention for the win.

Chase Elliott ($11,200)

Starting Position: 1st

Elliott starts on the pole and should dominate the early part of this race. Over the past three Martinsville races, Elliott has led 525 laps and it’s not out of the question for him to lead 200 laps again on Saturday. In eight races since 2018, Elliott has a win (2020 – Fall), four top 5’s, and six top 10’s. After Hamlin got his first victory last week, I think this week could be Elliott’s time to do the same.

Joey Logano ($9,700)

Starting Position: 14th

Logano was another driver who didn’t show much speed in practice but has a great track history at Martinsville. In his last ten races here, Logano has a win, four top 5’s, and eight top 10’s. Logano has also averaged 64.2 laps led and 27.5 fastest laps during this 10 race stretch as well. Logano has run well in 2022 and should be in contention for the win, or at worst a top 5 on Saturday night.

Other Options: Ryan Blaney ($10,900 – P12), Kyle Larson ($10,600 – P8), Kyle Busch ($10,000 – P11), William Byron ($9,500 – P5), Alex Bowman ($9,300 – P15)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Brad Keselowski ($7,900)

Starting Position: 9th

Keselowski has ruined many of our good days this season, but the RFK Ford’s have shown speed recently and ran well at Richmond last week. In the last ten Martinsville races, Keselowski has the second most average DKFP per race. Keselowski also has three wins, eight top 5’s, and nine top 10’s while averaging 40.1 fastest laps per race.

Chase Briscoe ($8,200)

Starting Position: 19th

Briscoe has only run two Cup Series races at Martinsville and neither of his finishes was great but this season Briscoe has been one of the series’ top drivers. In 2022, Briscoe has four top 15 finishes this season in seven races, including his win at Phoenix. There is another driver who will garner more ownership so I think Briscoe could be a lower owned pivot with top 5 potential, but more likely a top 10 car.

Ross Chastain ($8,800)

Starting Position: 27th

Chastain is the driver I mentioned above who will be the more popular driver in this tier. This is the first time Chastain has come to Martinsville in a competitive car so his past races don’t really hold weight. After a slow start to the season, Chastain has come back strong. In the last five races, Chastain has a win and four top 3 finishes but he did have a rough go at Richmond last week finishing 19th and breaking his top 3 streak, but with his place differential upside this week, Chastain can make value with a top 15.

Other Options: Tyler Reddick ($8,600 – P22), Kevin Harvick ($8,400 – P6), Kurt Busch ($8,000 – P18), Austin Dillon ($7,700 – P23), Erik Jones ($7,100 – P24)

Value Tier (Under $7K)

1. Ty Dillon ($5,500) – P34: In lesser equipment, Dillon has done well at Martinsville with an average finish of 20.5 in eight career races. This season Dillon has an average finish of 19.2 minus Daytona. I view Dillon as a top 20 upside play for SE or cash.
2. AJ Allmendinger ($6,600) – P36: Allmendinger had a good run here on Friday night in the Xfinity Series. In tech on Friday, AJ’s cup car failed three times so he wasn’t able to make a qualifying lap and will have to do a pass-through penalty putting him a lap down. Dinger will get back on the lead lap, similar to Haley last week, and be a contender for a top 20.
3. Daniel Suarez ($6,800) – P30: Suarez is having a resurgence in 2022 with teammate Ross Chastain at Trackhouse racing. In the past, Suarez has not run well here, but this season Suarez has three top 10s and had a 16th place finish last week. I view Suarez as a mid-teens driver on Saturday.
4. Bubba Wallace ($6,400) – P21: Last fall here, Wallace was running just outside the top 10 but had a tire go down and finished 25th. In that race, Bubba had the 14th best speed ranking and had an average running position of 16.1.
5. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,300) – P28: Martinsville is one of Stenhouse’s better tracks and he has an 18th place average finish here over the last 5 races.
6. Harrison Burton ($5,600) – P29: Burton has top 20 potential in this race on Saturday. In the last five Cup races, Burton has three finishes of 18th or better.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Toyota Owners 400 from Richmond Raceway. Richmond is a short flat track that is similar to Phoenix. In the past, the Joe Gibbs Toyotas have dominated at this track but this season they have not been good at all. Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch have combined to win five of the last seven races at Richmond including the last time the series was here in the fall when Truex won and led 80 laps. Denny Hamlin finished second and led a race-high 197 laps. Overall in that race, JGR Toyota’s led a combined 326 of 400 laps.

On the other hand, we have seen drivers like Ross Chastain, Tyler Reddick, and Alex Bowman dominate early this season in the new NextGen car. While the Toyota’s were fast in practice, it will be hard to trust them based on what they have done THIS season. All three of Bell, Truex, and Busch have shown flashes of greatness this season, but Hamlin has been, well, trash this season. Hamlin doesn’t seem to have a grasp on the sequential shifting and personally, I want to see him have a good performance before I will consider rostering him. Let’s see what we come up with for this week.

Roster construction

DraftKings decided to make the salaries a joke this week and it looks like the optimal build will be to go with 2 dominators and load up on the mid-tier. With 400 laps in this race and 280 dominator points available it will be crucial to get as many of those points as possible. With this many points, scores will be high on Sunday.

***** I will be running 20 lineups today, so I will have exposure to drivers not in the article *****

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators) ($9K +)

Ryan Blaney ($9,400)

Starting Position: 1st

Practice was short and every team has its own objective but the 12 team fielded the fastest car in practice. Blaney was fastest in all lap averages except the 30 lap (Larson) and then landed on the pole in qualifying. Richmond has not been Blaney’s best track, but he does have his best two finishes ever in his last two races here. Earlier this season at Phoenix, Blaney finished 4th, led 143 laps, and had the second-best speed ranking. On the season, Blaney has the top overall speed ranking. Blaney is a potential dominator at an extremely low price and should be your top play on Sunday.

Kyle Larson ($10,200)

Starting Position: 21st

Larson starts deep in the field, so he is the best place differential play and works nicely with Blaney. We all know Larson has the potential to dominate this race right alongside Blaney and showed his long-run speed in practice. In that short practice session on Saturday, Larson was top 2 in all lap averages from 10-lap to 30-lap. In his last seven Richmond races, Larson has finished top 10 in five of them.

Martin Truex Jr. ($9,600)

Starting Position: 6th

Here is our first JGR Toyota on the list and he is likely to be the best one at the end of the day. If a Toyota is going to win this race, my money would be on Truex. In practice on Saturday, True was top five in 10, 15, and 20-lap average. Truex is running his most successful paint scheme this weekend as well, the blue Auto-Owners Insurance scheme (if you believe in that type of thing). All the Joe Gibbs teams have a new setup for this race, and after practice Truex was gushing over how well his car felt and ran, so I think there is a good chance this team has their car ready for Sunday.

Other Options: Chase Elliott ($10,500 – P15) – Good PD upside and showed decent speed in practice. Kyle Busch ($9,900 – P3) – If the JGR cars have figured out the car for Sunday, Kyle could lead 200 laps and win. Unfortunately, we know until the race starts, but I am willing to take the risk with Kyle. Joey Logano ($9,200 – P11) – Logano runs well at Richmond and has top-fives in four of his last five here.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Ross Chastain ($8,900)

Starting Position: 8th

Chastain is hot right now coming off his victory last week at COTA. Coming into this weekend, Chastain has an average finish of 2nd in the last four races and has not finished lower than 3rd in any of those races. Earlier this season at Phoenix, Chastain finished 2nd, was the fastest driver late in a run and had the 6th best green flag speed. Chastain and the 1 team didn’t push their car in practice because it seems like they know they are good. I expect another solid finish and top 5 from Chastain on Sunday.

Alex Bowman ($8,500)

Starting Position: 28th

Bowman is the reigning winner of the spring race here at Richmond and should be highly owned on Sunday. We saw the chalk rule the day on Saturday and I think we may need to look to those types of builds as well on Sunday. I love the upside Bowman has in this race and his car was faster in practice than 28th. On Sunday, look for Bowman to be a top 10 car with top 5 upside.

Tyler Reddick ($8,200)

Starting Position: 16th

Reddick is way too cheap for his upside this week, especially now that he is starting from P16. This season, Reddick has been one of the fastest cars each and every week. At Phoenix this year, Reddick finished 3rd and had the fourth-best speed ranking.

Other Options: Austin Dillon ($7,000 – P25) – Similar to Reddick and Bowman, Dillon has huge upside for cheap. Kurt Busch ($7,900 – P27) – Busch was good at Phoenix this season and if the Gibbs cars are good, so should the 23XI cars. Daniel Suarez ($7,800 – P14) – Suarez like his teammate Chastain, has been having a great season. I expect him to be lower owned than Chastain and could be a great pivot off the chalk. Erik Jones ($7,600 – P5) – The upside on Jones is capped but he has been having a resurgence this year in the new car. I like Erik Jones as a great GPP play.

Value Tier (Under $7K)

1. Bubba Wallace ($5,900) – P29: Wallace is another driver underpriced on this slate. I don’t expect Wallace to carry much ownership in what could be a huge DFS day for him.
2. Ty Dillon ($5,200) – P30: Dillon has only one finish outside the top 20 this season(Atlanta – wreck) and should be seen as a top 20 driver again on Sunday.
3. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,500) – P32: Stenhouse perpetually runs near the front, but has some type of incident that sends him back and ends his day. I will go back to the well on Sunday and hope for a better result.
4. AJ Allmendinger ($6,700) – P26: Dinger ran exceptionally well in the Xfinity race on Saturday finishing 4th. I don’t expect that type of run on Sunday, but a top 20 is definitely in the cards.
5. Justin Haley ($6,300) – P36: Haley will be down a lap early, but he should get it back early. On Saturday, Haley was running top 20 laps in practice and has an avg finish of 17.7 on the season.
6. Corey Lajoie ($5,400) – P31: Lajoie looks like a top 25 car with top 20 upside on Sunday. His price is low, and the PD upside is there but there are other drivers in better equipment I like more.
7. Chris Buescher ($6,800) – P18: Buescher has value if you are playing large-field GPPs, but otherwise he is too risky for cash or SE.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the first road course of the season at Circuit of the Americas, otherwise known as COTA. This winding 3.4-mile road course produces some great action but is a difficult course for NASCAR since it was designed for Formula 1 racing. While I may reference practice speeds in this article, they aren’t the end all be all for me. No driver ran more than seven laps in practice so it’s hard to get a real gauge on what these cars can do. Because this race was run with a different car and in the rain, it is hard to use that race as a basis on how this race will go. No matter the generation of car or weather, good road course drivers always prevail and Sunday will be no different. I’ve mentioned it previously this weekend, but we are not chasing dominator points in this race. With only 68 laps in this race, it means we only have 47.6 dominator points available.

Roster construction

Looking at salaries and drivers we want to play, this seems like a 3-1-2 build for me. This means I want three dominators with two value drivers. Depending on which value drivers you go with, you can either roster a mid $8K or low $7K mid-tier driver. There are really a lot of different ways to go, but that style build is where I think the best path to victory will come from.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators) ($9K +)

Chase and the Two Kyle’s!

These three drivers are the top three priced drivers and will all be starting between 12th and 15th on Sunday. I like all three of these drivers and anticipate having plenty of exposure to all three of them.

Chase Elliott ($10,500 – P12)

Elliott is my favorite of this group and the one driver I would focus on fitting in if you’re building only one lineup. I hope you have some time because the list of accomplishment’s on road course I am about to go through could take a while. Over his last eight road course races, Chase has the most wins (3 – tied with Larson), best average finish (5.5), and the most top 5’s (6). Elliott is second to Larson in both average fastest laps per race and laps led per race. Elliott also trails only Larson in average running position with an avg RP of 8.7 (6.6 for Larson). Lastly, Elliott has the most average DKFP and FDFP per race during this eight-race span. I know Elliott will carry some high ownership, but when someone is as dominant as Elliott has been it’s hard to fade that kind of upside.

Kyle Larson ($10,400 – P13)

I listed a few of the things Larson has over Elliott above, so you already know he is a solid play at this track type. Larson has three wins and four top 5’s in the last 5 road course races. I know that Larson’s Chevy was not that fast in practice and he had some issues with it, but this team will have this car ready for Larson on Sunday and he will surely move through the field when the green flag flies.

Kyle Busch ($10,200 – P15)

As I mentioned in Saturday’s Xfinity article, Busch dominated this race in that series last year and he also ran well on Saturday in the Truck Series race. Busch clearly has this track down and should be a contender for the win on Sunday. In the last five races at this track type, Busch has four top 5’s and an average finishing position of 7.2. During this same stretch of races, Kyle is second to only Elliot in DKFP and FDFP per race.

William Byron ($9,300)

Starting Position: 24th

William Byron has been a solid road course racer of late, but he just doesn’t have the results. Over the last five road course races, Byron has an average finish of 23.6 but his averaging running position is 10.5. Last season at this track type, Byron has a sixth place finish and two 11th place finishes but then had four finishes in the 30’s. I know there is a lot of negativity there about Byron, but he has had some bad luck with good cars and hopefully momentum is on his side coming off a victory last week. I view Byron as a top 10 car on Sunday.

Austin Cindric ($9,500)

Starting Position: 10th

Cindric was known as a road course specialist earlier in his career, he has since evolved into an all-around racer who can win on any track type. In three career Cup Series road course races, Cindric has not had any real success but no by his own doing. At Indianapolis G.P., Cindric fiished 9th but at both Road America and COTA he had issues and finished 38th and 25th. Cindric is a GPP only play for me and is not safe for SE or cash.

Other Options: All the drivers in this tier are in play for us on Sunday. Looking at the remaining drivers, I rank them as such:

• Martin Truex Jr. ($9,700 – P17)
• Joey Logano ($9,100 – P6)
• Ryan Blaney ($10,000 – P1)
• Denny Hamlin ($9,800 – P8)
• Christopher Bell ($9,000 – P7)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

This week the mid-tier is loaded with great plays, the top one is semi-obvious if you watched the Xfinity Series race on Saturday. AJ Allmendinger ($8,800 – P20) was the class of the race and is a dominant road course racer. I know Dinger will be popular, and a fade here is risky, but I won’t argue against it either.

Ross Chastain ($8,200)

Starting Position: 16th

Chastain, and Daniel Suarez ($7,100 – P2), are both great plays this week as they have been all season. Trackhouse Racing seems to have the Next Gen car figured out. Chastain was running up front all day in the Xfinity race before being spun out on the last restart by Landon Cassill. While his finish wasn’t what he deserved on Saturday, Chastain has this track down it appears and should be a top 10 lock with top 5 upside.

Tyler Reddick ($8,400)

Starting Position: 4th

Could Tyler Reddick break up the Hendrick party at the top (I mean, he is kind of Hendrick adjacement, but I digress)? Reddick has been fast all season and he ran well here at COTA last year in this race. In that race, Reddick started from the pole and finished 3rd in stage 2 and was running 5th late in the race before spinning. Reddick came back to finish with a top 10 in that race. In the final road course race of 2021, the Charlotte Roval, Reddick finished 2nd, his best finish in a Cup race.

Erik Jones ($7,400)

Starting Position: 30th

Jones was spectacular at road courses in 2021 with an average finish of 14th and didn’t finish lower than 19th in any race. In 2022, Jones and the 43 team have shown speed all season and they should be in contention for a solid finish again on Sunday. When it comes to Jones, he is a good driver, he just has some bad luck occasionally and if he can avoid those hiccups on Sunday he could be a top play and compete for a top 10.

Other Options: Chase Briscoe ($8,900 – P14), Chris Buesher ($7,300 – P22), Alex Bowman ($8,500 – P5)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)

1. Joey Hand ($5,000) – P38: Hand was looking fast in practice but had a tire come apart late and shredded the car. This #15 will be getting help from Stewart-Haas so we know it will be fast. There is minimal risk with this play making him chalky, but it’s good chalk. I see Hand as the top value play.
2. Michael McDowell ($6,200) – P27: McDowell had success early at road courses in 2021, but was not as successful late on. This is a risky play, but there is plenty of upside with McDowell.
3. Ty Dillon ($5,100) – P33: Dillon has finished 26th or better in all five of his last five road course races with an average finish of 21.8.
4. Kaz Grala ($5,900) – P31: Grala is a road course specialist and he ran well here in the Truck Series last season. Grala finished 2nd and led 11 laps in that race.
5. Corey Lajoie ($5,400) – P32: In 2021 at this track, Lajoie finished 20th and had an 18.3 average running position.
6. Ricky Stenhouse ($6,900) – P28: Stenhouse had a 17.2 average finish at road courses in 2021. This is a risky play but with top 15 upside, a low owned Stenhouse could be a difference maker.
7. Andy Lally ($5,200) – P39: Lally had issues with his car on Saturday and was unable to make a practice run and qualifying appearance. On Sunday, Lally will be seen as a mid 30’s play.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

Atlanta has been renovated since the last time the NASCAR Cup Series was here in July of 2021. The 1.5 oval was reconfigured to have 28-degree banking from 24 degrees, which is higher than any other 1.5-mile track. The front stretch was widened as well. These changes were done to promote a superspeedway style of racing similar to Daytona and Talladega.

Kurt Busch stated that “Once we got out there in a group the pace picked up by over a second having the cars draft together… things were amplified way more than what we expected when we had just three cars drafting with each other”. Ross Chastain also said that you will “need friends to navigate the draft”. Both of these drivers tested tires for Goodyear at Atlanta back in January.

Roster construction

We saw it all come apart at the end of the Xfinity race on Saturday night and while that could happen on Sunday, I don’t think it will. There are some great place differential plays in this race, the best of those being Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr. One thing I did notice in the Xfinity race was you needed teammates to move through the field and the same will most likely be true on Sunday. Similar to MLB and NHL, stacking teammates might not be a bad idea. Now at the finish of the Xfinity race, the teammate pushing fell apart some, except for Kaulig, but it was key to leading laps early in the race. This is a 500-mile race with 325 laps on Sunday meaning we have 227.5 dominator points available in this race.

Looking at build types for this race, we don’t really need to value tier. Pricing is such that you can easily run a 2-3-1 type build with 2 dominators, 3 mid-tier, and one value. Depending on which top-tier drivers you use, a 3-2-1 build is also a possibility. No matter the build type you go with, I think one value driver is all you’ll need on Sunday.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators) ($9K +)

Kyle Larson ($10,500) [ Proj. Ownership: 52%]

Starting Position: 21st

Larson was not fast in single-lap speed, but over the long run he really picked it up. In the 5-lap average Larson was 10th, and he was top-5 in the 10, 15, and 20-lap averages as well. I know this is a new racing surface and the field will be racing differently on Sunday, but it’s hard to think that Larson won’t be good on Sunday and potentially dominate a good portion of this race.

Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas:

All four of their Cup cars were great in practice on Saturday. The best of the bunch may have been the driver not in this price tier, Christopher Bell ($7,700 – P27). Bell was the top car in 10-lap average as well as third in single lap speed. Kyle Busch ($9,800 – P4) was 2nd in single-lap speed, third in 10-lap avg, and he was atop the chart in five-lap avg. Denny Hamlin ($10,100 – P15) was 8th in single-lap speed and 5th in 10-lap average so it could be a good sign for the veteran. Hamlin has not had a good year so far, but this speed is promising for him. Lastly, Martin Truex Jr.($9,200 – P26), could end up being the best play of this group. Truex was 9th in single-lap speed and 11th in 10-lap average.

Chase Elliott ($10,300) [ Proj. Ownership:13% ]

Starting Position: 6th

Elliott was fast in practice and is someone I will look to play with Larson in lineups. Similar to Larson, Elliott did not have a great single-lap run (11th), but he did have the 2nd best 10-lap average. Elliott also had the 2nd best 15-lap average and the 3rd fastest 20-lap average.

Other Options: Ryan Blaney ($10,700 – P2): Blaney didn’t have a great practice session and is the most expensive driver in the field. I do think Blaney gets ahead of Briscoe and leads the early portion of this race. Blaney won’t be highly owned at his price and starting position. William Byron ($9,400 – P12): Byron wasn’t fast in practice, but both Larson and Elliott were so I am not worried about Byron. Tyler Reddick ($9,000 – P5): Reddick WAS fast in practice and he has been so close to wins multiple times this season some would say he is due. RCR uses Hendrick engines, so using Reddick with the HMS cars is a good way to be different.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Ricky Stenhouse ($7,100) [ Proj. Ownership: 31% ]

Starting Position: 28th

Stenhouse is a great superspeedway driver and he showed amazing speed in practice on Saturday. In that practice session, nobody put down a faster lap than Stenhouse did and he was also 6th fastest in 10-lap average. Stenhouse is another Chevy that uses Hendrick engines. With the speed he had in practice and the potential to get through the field with the HMS cars makes Stenhouse of my favorite plays in the field on Sunday.

Bubba Wallace ($7,300) [ Proj. Ownership: 19% ]

Starting Position: 19th

Wallace has always been a better superspeedway driver than he has at 1.5-mile tracks. With Atlanta working as a mini-superspeedway, Wallace should perform well on Sunday because of this. Wallace will run with the JGR Toyota’s, if he can link up with them that is. On Saturday in practice, Wallace was a top 20 car in practice.

Brad Keselowski ($8,600) [ Proj. Ownership: 23%]

Starting Position: 24th

Will Brad Keselowski wreck anyone on Sunday? Well, yes he most likely will. Keselowski was showing some decent speed on Saturday, but he was great in superspeedway races so far this season. Keselowski won his duel before the Daytona 500 and ran great at Daytona (while wrecking half the field at that). I view Kes as a top 15 car on Sunday.

Other Options: Austin Cindric ($7,800 – P16), Alex Bowman ($8,800 – P11), Austin Dillon ($7,400 – P17)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)

1. Harrison Burton ($6,400) P31: Burton has not been great, but he showed speed on Saturday. In practice on Saturday, Burton was fourth in single lap speed and was 16th in 10-lap average.
2. Erik Jones ($6,900) P23: Jones is having his best season in two years and showed some good speed on Saturday. In practice, Jones was top 15 in single lap speed and was 8th in 5-lap average.
3. Michael McDowell ($6,600) P29: McDowell is another driver like Burton and Jones, that showed some good speed on Saturday. In reality, all three of these drivers project similarily so I suggest that you use who ever fits your build best.

Cole Custer ($6,300 – P20), Corey Lajoie ($5,300 -P33), and Daniel Suarez ($6,800 – P13) are the next group of three that can be used in this tier. While I like Suarez, you are better off with one of Burton/McDowell/Jones.

Ty Dillon ($6,000 – P18), Noah Gragson ($5,800 – P30), and Chris Buescher ($6,700 – P14) are the last three viable options in this tier. Gragson has the best PD upside, while Buescher has had the most success at superspeedways.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

This week we get our first “short track” of the season which means we have a plethora of dominator points on the table on Sunday. Sunday’s race has 312 laps which convert into 218.4 dominator points. At this race last season, Joey Logano led 143 laps but he would finish second to Martin Truex Jr. who led just 64 laps on his way to victory. Last fall at the Championship race it was more balanced with three drivers leading at least 72 laps and all three would finish in the top 5.

Phoenix has been dominated by two teams over the last few seasons. In the last seven races, six of them have been won by either Hendrick or Joe Gibbs cars including the last three. Logano winning in March of 2020 is the only outlier in this stretch, but we do have a Penske car on the pole on Sunday in Ryan Blaney so maybe this streak can be snapped. We have had six different winners in the last six races at Phoenix and if that trend is to continue on Sunday I could see one of Blaney, William Byron, or Tyler Reddick going to victory lane on Sunday.

Roster construction

Last season at this race, eight of the top ten in DKFP started inside the top 10. Looking back at the optimal lineups at that race none of the top 5 scoring lineups had more than two value tier plays so we are looking at a more balanced approach. I think we can implement that same lineup building style on Sunday, there is even enough value in the lower-priced top tier and mid-tier that building lineups with one value play is totally feasible.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators) ($9K +)

Kevin Harvick ($9,100) [Proj. Ownership: 31%]

Starting Position: 16th

Harvick has been one of the most dominant drivers in the history of Phoenix Raceway. Since 2012 (20 races), Harvick has had 19 top tens. Yes, you read that correctly, Kevin Harvick has finished in the top 10 nineteen of his last twenty races at Phoenix. Harvick also has 14 top 5’s and seven victories. Harvick wasn’t great in practice posting just the 24th best single lap, but during the long runs, he had top 10 speed and I expect a 20th top 10 in 21 races on Sunday.

Martin Truex Jr. ($9,800) [Proj. Ownership: 29%]

Starting Position: 20th

Truex wasn’t fast in practice, but I am not worried about his lack of speed. Phoenix is one of MTJ’s better tracks with two straight top 2 finishes and five top 10’s in his last seven here. In the last six races here, Truex has an average finish of 8.8 and is averaging 32.2 fastest laps and 24.5 laps led. On Sunday I view Truex as a top 10 car with top 5 upside.

Kyle Larson ($11,800) [Proj. Ownership: 24%]

Starting Position: 7th (will start at the rear)

Larson had the best car in practice on Saturday and I don’t have any worries about him having to start at the back. In 10 lap average Larson was 3rd fastest and in 15, 20, and 25 laps he was tops. Larson led 107 laps and won at Phoenix last fall en route to winning the Cup Series Championship. Since 2018, Larson has a 4.2 average finish which is the best in the series during this time and has not finished below 7th in any race.

Ryan Blaney ($9,600) [Proj. Ownership: 27%]

Starting Position: 1st

Blaney was another car that was incredibly fast in practice and it’s no surprise he is on the pole for Sunday. Blaney was a big letdown last Sunday, but at no fault of his own, he was taken out by the wreck starter himself, Brad Keselowski. I don’t expect Blaney to be caught up in any wreck on Sunday. In practice on Saturday, Blaney was 2nd fastest in EVERY category, trailing only Larson in averages and Austin Cindric in single lap speed.

Other Options: Joey Logano ($10,400 – P10) – Logano has to be considered a favorite on Sunday because of his track history here. Chase Elliott ($10,700 – P19) – Elliott was not one of the fast cars in practice, but that isn’t a worry, Elliott loves Phoenix and will be a top 10 car on Sunday. William Byron ($9,400 – P3) – Byron had the fastest 10 lap average and was top five in single lap speed. Kyle Busch ($11,200 – P11) – Busch is expensive but there is some upside here. He won’t be starting dead last like last week, but Busch traditionally runs well at Phoenix.

Denny Hamlin usually runs well here, but I need to see him finish a race before I can pay $10,100 in salary to roster him. If you think this is the week he turns it around, go for it, but for me, he is a fade.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Ross Chastain ($8,100) [Proj. Ownership: 26%]

Starting Position: 17th

Last week Chastain was the one driver I missed on, but not this week. Trackhouse has been fast and been near or at the front of the field for a good portion of the last two races and Chastain should be a threat to get there again on Sunday. Chastain is an aggressive driver and we have seen that the guys who drive like him have the most success in the Next-Gen car. In practice, Chastain was top 10 in both single lap speed and 10 lap average.

Ricky Stenhouse ($7,000) [Proj. Ownership: 38%]

Starting Position: 36th

Stenhouse had a top 20 car in practice, but then the engine gave out (valve spring) and he was unable to make a qualifying attempt which means he starts dead last. Hendrick was able to give him a new engine to put into this car so we know it will be fast and I think this is a chalk play that you need to eat and enjoy the +20 place differential. I view Stenhouse as a top 15 car with huge upside and little to no downside.

AJ Allmendinger ($7,200) [Proj. Ownership:]

Starting Position: 29th

In his Cup career, Allmendinger has never really run well at Phoenix, but this car is probably the best he’s ever had here. In practice, Allmendinger had a top 10 single lap time and was 16th in 10 lap average. Allmendinger came home 7th in the Xfinity race here while running as high as 2nd and spending 95.7% of the race in the top 15. Now, I know these stats don’t translate but just getting seat time on this track and running as well as he did has to be a confidence boost for Dinger for Sunday’s race.

Other Options: Tyler Reddick ($8,500 – P12) – I love this play for Sunday, the only reason he wasn’t higher in my rankings was because of salary. I think we need the $7K drivers if we want to go three deep on dominators. Brad Keselowski ($8,200 – P18) – While Keselowski has wrecked plenty of drivers this season he has kept his own car pretty clean. Kes has top 10 upside on Sunday. Austin Cindric ($7,700 – P8) – We go from the old driver of the #2 to the new one. Cindric was fast in practice, even producing the fastest single lap time. I view Cindric as a potential top 10 car, but realistically a mid-teens car.

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)

1. Bubba Walalce ($6,400) – P27: Bubba was much faster in practice than his qualifying postion would lead you to believe (13th in SL and 10 Lap avg). On Sunday expect a mid teens performance out of the 23 team.
2. Cole Custer ($6,200) – P25: Custer did not have a great run in practice, but I epxect his team, with the help of Harvick, to get this car right and gain some speed as the race progresses.
3. Harrison Burton ($5,700) – P24: Here we are again with another driver who was great in practice but it did not translate to a good qualifying effort. This typically happens when a car is trimmed out for racing, not qualifying. Burton is a top 15 car on Sunday in my eyes.
4. Todd Gilliland ($4,900) – P33: I expect some ownership for Gilliland on Sunday, but if you need the savings you will have to eat this chalk. It’s neccissarily good chalk, but he is the only option I am considering in this price range. Gilliland is one of the top Fpts/$ plays on this slate.
5. Daniel Suarez ($6,600) – P23: Suarez wasn’t fast in practice but we have seen these Trackhouse over perform on the season, so why not Suare again on Sunday.
6. Justin Haley ($6,000) – P28: Haley should some speed on Saturday in practice and I view the 31 car as a top 20 upside play.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

Hittin the track in Vegas!

This week the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Vegas for the second leg of their west coast trip. Las Vegas Motorspeedway is a smooth intermediate 1.5-mile track. Unlike last week in Fontana, tire wear will not be an issue but track position will. We can still look to Auto Club as a gauge since it is the only intermediate track the NexGen car has raced at this season.

NASCAR held an extended practice this weekend as opposed to the 20 minutes the teams had last week. To no one’s surprise, Kyle Larson dominated practice and had the fastest single lap, 5 lap, and 10 lap averages. There was only one driver who bettered Larson at any length, William Byron was fastest in 15-lap and 20-lap averages. Byron’s car will be good on the long run with Larson. Another driver who was fast on Saturday was Ryan Blaney. Blaney was the only driver other than Byron who was top 3 in all facets of practice, running the best 25-ap average. Kyle Busch spun early in practice after running top 10 speeds and will be going to his backup car, but this also means he didn’t run a qualifying lap and will start dead last.

Roster Construction

Short and sweet… load up on the top tier. I like 3-4 dominator builds this week, similar to the Xfinity race. There is plenty of value in this race that makes these types of builds easy to do.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators) ($9K +)

Kyle Larson ($11,300) [ Proj. Ownership: 34% ]

Starting Position: 2nd

Nobody had a better car in practice than Larson and he should be the top dominator in this race. With track position being key, Larson starting on the front row should give him the chance to get out front early and lead laps. Larson is coming off a victory last week and won at Vegas last fall. Larson is the favorite to win this race and he is my pick as well.

Kevin Harvick ($9,100) [ Proj. Ownership: 39% ]

Starting Position: 25th

Harvick was not fast in practice but he was running consistent laps and we have seen the Fords run well in every race this season. In three of his last four Vegas races, Harvick has finished no worse than 10th but his one poor performance was at this race last year where his team just missed the setup (no practice or qualifying). I believe that this car will be faster on Sunday and come home with a top 10.

William Byron ($9,800) [ Proj. Ownership: 18% ]

Starting Position: 14th

Fast Willy B was just that on Saturday in practice. Byron was top two in all multi-lap averages he ran in (Byron did not run 25 consecutive laps) and was the only driver to do so. Las Vegas is a track where Byron typically runs fast, but he has had some issues. The last time the series was here in the Fall, Byron was a top 5 car all day but had a ton of issues and finished 18th. Last season at intermediate tracks, Byron had the top speed ranking and was either 1st or 2nd in speed in the last five races.

Ryan Blaney ($10,500) [ Proj. Ownership: 23% ]

Starting Position: 11th

Blaney will be a top 5 car on Sunday. He may not finish there, because the unpredictable can always happen in NASCAR, but Blaney was fast in practice and should be in contention for the win on Sunday. Blaney has an average finish of 6.6 in the last five Vegas races and has finished 7th or better in eight of the last ten.

Kyle Busch ($10,200) [ [ Proj. Ownership: 47% ]

Starting Position: 37th

Like I mentioned in the open, Busch will be going to his backup car and be starting dead last. Busch’s backup car is said to not be “race ready” so there is a chance this car might not be competitive on Sunday. I still expect Busch to be highly owned but because of the potential upside, I will have some shares. This is one of Kyle’s better tracks with an average finish of 4th in the last three races and finished 3rd in both races here in 2021.

Other Options: Joey Logano ($10,800 – P6) – Logano is a pivot off of the chalky Busch and was running really fast laps in practice on Saturday. Chase Elliott ($11,000 – P5) – Expensive, but another fast Hendrick car. Martin Truex Jr. ($9,500 – P12) – MTJ is the pivot off Harvick in GPPs or MME. Could be a top 10 car with top 5 upside. Tyler Reddick ($9,300 – P7) – After how well Reddick has run this season it will be hard to fade him. I may not have a lot of exposure but I will have Reddick in some lineups.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Kurt Busch ($8,900) [ Proj. Ownership: 36% ]

Starting Position: 31st

Kurt Busch is either a top 8 car or 20th or worse car at Vegas in his last six races here with no in-between. On Saturday, Busch was showing top 20 speed in practice but had a terrible qualifying effort. Busch is another driver who will carry high ownership, but I like the idea of pairing him with three top-tier lower-owned drivers.

Erik Jones ($7,300) [ [ Proj. Ownership: 37% ]

Starting Position: 23rd

Erik Jones has been outstanding to start the season and was one of the best cars last week at Auto Club. Jones finished 3rd after finishing 2nd in both stages. At Fontana, Jones’s accomplishments continued with the best total speed ranking, best green flag speed, the best driver rating, a 4.3 average running position, and 2nd fastest driver late in a run. This team seems to have intermediate tracks figured out and because of this, Jones will be high on my radar on Sunday.

Christopher Bell ($8,200) [ [ Proj. Ownership: 29% ]

Starting Position: 1st

Bell is risky as he and the JGR Toyota’s have not run well so far this season but he showed plenty of speed on Saturday. In practice, Bell was 2nd in single-lap speed, and third in 10-lap average. Last year at this race, Bell finished 7th after running top 10 all day and 6th in stage 1 and 7th in stage 2.

Other Options: Alex Bowman ($8,700 – P13), Daniel Suarez ($7,000 – P21), Aric Almirola ($7,800 – P20)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)

1. Daniel Hemric ($5,800) – P16 : Hemric has a fast car running top 10 practice speeds in every category he ran in. I might have more exposure to Hemric than any other driver in the field.
2. Cole Custer ($6,700) – P24: Custer was faster in practice than his qualifying effort showed. We saw Custer run well at Auto Club last weekend and I expect a top 15 from the 41 on Sunday.
3. Chris Buescher ($6,500) – P27: There is some upside to Buescher on Sunday, but I only see him as a top 20 car on Sunday. His speeds were in the mid 20’s on Saturday.
4. Harrison Burton ($5,900) – P19: Burton ran well in practice with mid teens speed. We know the Fords have performed at high levels this season, so Burton could surprise but reaslitically he is a top 15 car at best.
5. Ty Dillon ($5,600) – P32: I don’t expect much from Dillon on Sunday since he ran speeds right around his qualifying effory. With attrition this is a top 20 car, but it will take a lot for that to happen.
6. Bubba Wallace ($6,300) P17: Wallace had good long run speed in practice and could be a contendor for a top 10, but a more realistic expectation is mid to high teens

All three of Michael McDowell, Corey Lajoie, and Todd Gilliland are three sub $5.5K plays that can be used in four dominator builds. Lajoie was the fastest of these three in practice but they all project around the same points.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Cup series for the 2022 season! If you’ve been with us before then, you know the drill, but welcome if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play. There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

California dreamin‘

I had a whole different into planned for this open before practice and qualifying took place. If I am being honest I have no idea what to expect on Sunday afternoon. We saw six cars wreck in some way in practice, and then in qualifying five more spun. I would hope that the teams were able to figure out what happened and have fixed the issue that led to this. With so many cars having issues we won’t have 1-2 chalk plays, we instead have 5-6 drivers who will be popular but ownership could be spread out since you cannot roster all of them. One driver who will be in the group starting at the rear is Kurt Busch. This is a different situation from the rest, Kurt failed tech 3x’s on Friday so he wasn’t allowed to make a qualifying lap and will have to serve a pass-through penalty. Busch is the riskiest play of the drivers starting at the rear but he was 14th in practice and 10th in 10-lap average. It is pretty much a given that Busch will go a lap down early, but there will be plenty of time for him to recover and get back on the lead lap. You won’t Busch in this article, but I expect to have some exposure to Busch on Sunday, but he won’t be my highest owned driver.

Roster Construction

I planned on doing a typical two dominator build for this race because of how the laps led in the previous five races have gone. Similar to the Xfinity Series, typically two drivers lead 75-80% of the laps in races at Auto Club. But with so many drivers that fit the dominator tier, we may be looking at three dominator builds. There is still some value in the mid-tier but very little in the value tier. Luckily we can actually build a variety of lineups with the way this field panned out. Let’s get started!

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators) ($9K +)

Kyle Larson ($11,600) [Proj. Ownership: 23%]

Starting Position: 13th

Larson is an interesting play this week. He did not have a great practice, but it was only 15 minutes of track time so it’s hard to really get a gauge on what he can do. We do know that Larson can drive anything to victory lane and he has done so here in the past. Larson should come in at much lower ownership than usual because of the PD plays elsewhere in the field but he has the car and the ability to lead the majority of this race and win.

Kevin Harvick ($9,200) [Proj. Ownership: 45%]

Starting Position: 32nd

On the opposite end of the pricing in this tier is Harvick. Harvick was one of the many cars who had issues in practice and went around in turn four early in the session. This is a track Harvick performs well at with eight top 10’s in his last 12 races here including a win in 2011. For his price, upside, and past track history Harvick is the best of the bunch coming from the back.

Kyle Busch ($10,400) [Proj. Ownership: 30%]

Starting Position: 3rd

Kyle was one of the best cars in the limited practice time the teams had. Busch was 2nd in both single lap and 10-lap practice with Denny Hamlin (single lap) and Chase Elliott (10-lap) being faster. Busch has seven top 3 finishes in the last nine races here and has finished 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the last three races. During those three races, Busch is tops in average finish (2nd), average running position (4.5), fastest laps per race (33.3), and laps led (65.3).

While nothing has been announced at the time of writing, there is speculation about Kyle having to start at the back because of unapproved adjustments. I will post any updates on this in discord if and when they become available. As of now, he is a top play, but if he goes to the back I will reassess any potential changes to his status for this race fantasy-wise.

Alex Bowman ($9,000) [Proj. Ownership: 22%]

Starting Position: 14th

When the Cup Series was here last in 2020 Bowman was the winner and should be a contender again on Sunday. Bowman was top 5 in practice on Saturday in single lap times but he did not run a 10-lap stretch. Bowman had the fastest car in this race in 2020, but I don’t think that will be the case on Sunday. I view Bowman as a top 10 car with top 5 upside.

Ryan Blaney – $10,000 P6:

Blaney is someone I am just coming around on and while he didn’t show a ton of speed in practice he does project at low ownership (around 20%) and is capable of winning. Blaney is a GPP play because of the potential downside. In 2020 they had a tire vibration that caused them to pit late while running near the front and they were not able to recover. Blaney is a dark horse candidate to win this race, but could also finish in the high teens. He is definitely a high-risk high-reward type of play on Sunday.

Other Options: Denny Hamlin ($10,700 – P4), Chase Elliott ($11,100 – P8), Martin Truex Jr. ($9,800 – P12)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Christopher Bell ($8,000) [ Proj. Ownership: 28%]

Starting Position: 19th

Bell was another one of the drivers that went for a spin in practice on Saturday but he managed to save his car from damage and will not need to go to his backup. Before he went around, Bell did run the 5th best 10-lap average lap as well as the 9th fastest single lap. Bell had some success at high tire wear tracks in 2021, and I see him as a low teens driver with top 10 upside. This is purely a salary and ownership play because other drivers may project for more points in this tier but they will be more popular and their upside is capped.

Bubba Wallace ($7,000) [Proj. Ownership: 43%]

Starting Position: 34th

Wallace finished 2nd last week at his best track type, but this week when I did not plan on using him he ends up not getting to put a qualifying lap down and makes himself playable. Wallace spun out in practice (because who didn’t?!) and had damage that sent him to the garage which disqualified him from qualifying. In that practice session, Wallace did have the 7th fastest lap before his spin. I know he will be high owned, but the upside here of a top 15 makes it hard to fade Wallace especially if you play the lower owned drivers listed above.

Aric Almirola ($7,400) [Proj. Ownership: 37%]

Starting Position: 31st

Another driver and another one who took a spin in practice. It’s going to be impossible to fit all of these drivers starting at the back in, but Almirola might be among the best options. We know the Fords have dominated early on this season and being back there with a teammate in Kevin Harvick to work with as they work through that field will help Almirola. In his three races at Auto Club, Almirola is yet to finish lower than 12th in any race.

Other Options: Brad Keselowski ($8,600 – P9), Ross Chastain ($8,200 – P33), Tyler Reddick ($8,400 – P11)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Justin Haley ($6,500) – P35: Haley was another driver who didn’t get to qualify. No driver in this tier that has the potential to have a great positive place differential.
2. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,200) – P17: Stenhouse will have almost no ownership (around 10%) but had a car that had top 5 long run speed. This care has top 10 upside
3. Cole Custer ($5,900) – P21: Custer dominated the Xfinity race on Saturday and should be in contention for a top 15 on Sunday.
4. Todd Gilliland ($5,300) – P26: Limited upside here, but is the best in the ow $5K range if you are in need of salary relief.
5. Michael McDowell ($5,700) – P23: McDowell has top 15 speed in practice and should be a top 20 car on Sunday.
6. Erik Jones ($6,400) – P2: This is a risky play, but Jones and Ty Dillon were both fast in practice and at his salary if Jones can finish around the top 10 he could make value at 5% ownership.

Thank you for reading my weekly NASCAR DFS Pit Stop articles and make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!