It’s another Saturday where the main slate is in the afternoon and there are nine games for us to go over, and the pitching is suspect after the top to some degree. Even the most expensive options could have some questions around them so this isn’t the easiest slate. Let’s figure out which direction we need to go in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/18 and find our way to green screens!
He didn’t exactly continue the trend I had hoped for last time out as he threw the fastball 50.5% against the Marlins compared to just 42.6% the previous start. The four-seam has been the worst pitch with a .267 wOBA allowed, a .373 xwOBA, and just a 14.7% whiff rate while the slider has 42 strikeouts and the curve has a 32.2% whiff rate (and 18 strikeouts, just as many as the fastball). He’s also been a little bit worse to righties with a 1.55 HR/9 and the K rate drops to 25.2% but the K number is still strong overall. It should help Verlander that the White Sox are only 25th against the fastball this season and they’re also 29th in ISO and then 25th or worse in wOBA, OPS, and wRC+. The only real aspect the White Sox has going for them against righty pitching is a low K rate at 19.7% but even though he’s in a slightly diminished state at this stage of his career, this is a pretty solid spot for him.
The salary is a little less than ideal in my mind but Seattle can be a feast or famine offense against either side and the K rate against lefties is almost 23%. One aspect that has kept Sandoval from being talked about much this season is the fact that he’s changed his arsenal, and I can’t say it has been for the better. Last year his changeup was the lead pitch and it had a 51.4% whiff rate, a .213 wOBA allowed, and 56 of 94 strikeouts. While it was only thrown 29.6% of the time, that was the one he used the most but this year it has a 50.9% whiff rate, a .171 wOBA, and 31 of 54 strikeouts. The difference is he’s throwing it 23.2% and the four-seam and slider have overtaken it in the hierarchy. Seattle is only 24th against the changeup this season and even with the shift in the arsenal, Sandoval still has a 2.80 ERA (3.90 xFIP isn’t the most comforting thing) and a 22.9% K rate. With a FIP of 2.93, he has some potential tonight, and hopefully, that changeup keeps creeping up a little more for the usage.
Honorable Mention
I don’t think Aaron Nola gets blown up but I do have serious questions about him hitting value at this salary. The Nationals rarely cooperate with strikeouts and I can see a Wheeler-esque start from Nola day, which was under 20 points despite quality pitching in real life. Nola is pitching very well this year with a 2.90 xFIP and 28.7% K rate but the path is not easy for him at over $10,000.
We’ve been chasing the upside for Wood for a while and the ERA of 4.11 still does not match the xFIP of 3.03 and he’s had bad luck almost all season. The ground ball rate is over 51% and the K rate is 23%, one of our favorite combos. Wood has also only allowed a 22.8% hard-hit rate and even though the wOBA against righties is .328, the xFIP only comes up to 3.29 and the K rate is still over 21%. The Bucks could throw out a couple of lefty bats as well, which would be great news for Wood as the K rate jumps up to 28.8% and the WHIP is down to 0.80. Pittsburgh is 25th or worse in wOBA and wRC+ against lefty pitching and the K rate is over 24%, all factors that should help Wood to a big game here. He’s similar to Carlos Rodon with the sinker/slider combo doing most of the work and the whiff rates on both pitches are over 24% this season.
Baltimore has been a thorn in our sides at times this season but on paper, this is just too good of a spot to ignore. The Orioles carry a K rate of 25.3% which is the second-highest in the league behind only Miami. On top of that, they are not higher than 21st in any of our offensive categories, a great mix for Springs. On his side of things, he does have a 3.31 xFIP to contrast the 1.45 ERA but he also has a K rate of 26.6% and he’s backing it up with a 14.2% swinging-strike rate. The changeup has been excellent with a 38.8% whiff rate and t has 28 of 50 strikeouts while the Baltimore offense is 25th when facing the change. We should hope for a righty-heavy lineup because Springs does have some sharp splits. When he’s facing a righty, the FIP is 2.29, the WHIP is just 0.84, and the K rate s just under 29%. The left side is what hurts him with a 5.97 FIP and a 2.31 HR/9 but the Orioles’ typical lineup would be eight righties. If that happens, I’m going to be very interested in playing him in a lot of lineups.
I don’t believe that I’ll be dropping below Springs all that much but two players could provide some value based on the matchups. The first is Taylor Hearn and this is wildly risky, even against the Detroit offense. They’re dead last in ISO by almost 15 points, they whiff 22% of the time, and they’re no higher than 26th in any other offensive category. Hearn does have a K rate of 19.5% but the 5.37 ERA has been a little unlucky compared to the 4.66 xFIP. It also helps that Detroit is dead last when facing a fastball since Hearn throws one 60% of the time and Hearn does have just a 1.05 HR/9 against righties. It’s not super likely I would say, but it’s at least possible.
The second option is Kyle Bradish and I get it, we’ve been down this road before. He’s really only had one great start and then two good ones but the matchup works for him. The Rays are down Brandon Lowe, Wander Franco, and Mike Zunino at least and since Franco has been out, the Rays offense has been quite bad. They’re 27th in wOBA and OPS, 24th in wC+, 25th in ISO, and 26th in OBP, and the K rate is sitting at 23.9%. Bradish still has a monster gap between the 6.86 ERA and 3.93 xFIP and the HR/FB rate simply won’t stay at 24.4%. He’s got a solid K rate at 22.9% and an unsustainably high BABIP of .374 so a lot of factors have gone against him so far. He should also have a lineup of 5-6 lefties and that side has a .270 wOBA, a 28.9% K rate, and a 2.63 FIP/2.78 combo. If he can’t get it done here, it might not happen for him right now.
Graham Ashcraft – There is just such little strikeout upside that it’s hard to get behind him here. The xFIP is 3.79 which is good but the K rate is under 13% so if he allows any production there’s no route for him to make it up. I believe the more hitters see him, the less he’s going to be able to survive and the 58.3% ground ball rate isn’t enough.
Taijuan Walker – The last start was super impressive as he struck out 10 hitters but through 52.2 IP this year, the K rate is still just 16.1% and the xFIP is over 4.00. The good news for him is the Marlins are down multiple hitters but the bad news is the right side still has a 4.28 xFIP, a 13.2% K rate, and a .278 wOBA.
Mets
Reds
Rangers
Giants
Royals
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/18 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
It’s Friday and you know what that means, a full slate of MLB action! We may have the traditional aces on the slate for name value, but it is deceptive because there aren’t a ton of great choices. This article may be the shortest with a slate this size but I feel strongly that these are the pitchers that I’ll be targeting. That doesn’t mean you can’t play other players but I’m finding it easy to take stands early on and frankly, almost anything is better than yesterday. Let’s not waste any time and get right to work in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/17 to find our pitchers!
Rodon got back in the saddle in his last start with eight strikeouts and that was against the Dodgers, let alone the Pirates lineup. They may get some power reinforcements as Oneil Cruz continues to be rumored as a call-up but he doesn’t solve all the issues with the Pittsburgh offense. They strike out at the third-highest rate in baseball against lefty pitching and sit 24th against fastballs, which is a very poor matchup with Rodon on the other side. He’s throwing it 63.8% of the time and has a 24.6% whiff rate, 52 strikeouts, and a .317 wOBA when using it and it’s sitting over 96 mph for the average speed. Rodon also features a K rate over 30% and a 13.1% swinging-strike rate, some big numbers for under five digits on DK. Pittsburgh is 14th in ISO so Rodon may give up a home run or two but the upside here is immense and even righties have a 29.3% K rate, a wOBA under .300, and a 3.27 xFIP.
This is not the best slate for aces overall and I will be very light on pitchers at $9,000 or above but Skubal checks the boxes for someone I do want to look at. I’m not concerned at all that he struggled with the Blue Jays lineup because most will and he still has a 2.84 xFIP, a 2.30 FIP, and 2.71 ERA so that all lines up. The K rate is 27.6% and the swinging-strike rate is 12.2% to go along with the career-high 29.3% CSW. Both the slider and four-seam have a whiff rate over 22.5% while Texas is 17th against the slider and 23rd against the fastball. Texas is not the easiest matchup Skubal will ever draw so I do prefer Rodon for just $900 more because Texas is top 10 in wRC+, wOBA, and ISO. Still, even righties haven’t done much damage against him with a 2.27 FIP, a K rate right at 27.8%, and a wOBA under .275. I could see him getting lost in the shuffle on this slate.
I feel like if I didn’t write up Montas at $8,300 on DK, Ghost would teleport from Canada and run me over with a moose or something. Fortunately, Montas is in a good spot regardless of the Ghost factor and he’s pitching at home, as he’s done for 57.2 innings this season. In that split, he’s put up a 2.81 ERA, a .263 wOBA, the K rate is 28.3%, and the xFIP has been fairly static regardless at 2.96. The Royals everyday lineup is mostly balanced but does have a lean toward righty hitters and that’s a plus for Montas as well with a 29.9% K rate against the right side. Despite only eight strikeouts, the slider is the secondary pitch when facing a lefty and it has a 41.3% whiff rate while setting up the four-seam/splitter mix which has 64 strikeouts in total. The Kansas City lineup isn’t rife with strikeouts but Montas has been far too good this season to be this cheap and I’d assume he’s going to be the SP2 for a lot of folks tonight, and he should be. One of the main reasons Montas could be chalk is the mid-range is fairly bereft of options tonight and Montas is the only one in strong consideration for me.
We’ve had slates lately where Gray has been chalk and this could potentially be one of them. Perhaps he’s the SP2 ahead of Montas but regardless, his 4.85 ERA is far higher than the 3.76 xFIP and Gray does have a K rate of 26% backed up by an 11.4% swinging-strike rate. We really don’t get that raw K rate for this salary too often and I don’t want to paint Gray as a free square but he does draw one of the better matchups that he can. Detroit is up to fifth in K rate overall when facing righties and they have fallen to dead last in every offensive category. If that wasn’t enough, Detroit is also dead last against the fastball and 28th against the slider, both of which are the main pitches for Gray. That makes up about 85% of the arsenal and the slider especially has been good with a 37.4% whiff rate and 32 strikeouts. The fly-ball rate is a bit high but by everything we have in front of us, Gray is in a fantastic spot and he’s shown upside in two of the past three starts.
It should go without saying that any pitcher against the Yankees has a higher chance of flopping but Stripling has turned some heads with his performances in the past two starts. He’s made it through 11 innings, only allowed two hits, zero runs, and struck out just six but he’s generating a big ground ball rate. He’s over 54% on the season and that’s one way to neutralize the Yankee offense, not to mention he’s been stronger when facing righties. The wOBA is .273 but the K rate jumps up to 22.3% and the xFIP is actually lower at 3.35. His slider only has a .259 wOBA against it along with a 23% whiff rate and that’s his main pitch when facing righties, with the four-seam coming behind it. A concern is the Yanks are the best team against the slider but they are also being carried in that category by Aaron Judge (shocker, right?) and Giancarlo Stanton. Needless to say, Stripling has to avoid those hitters anyway and the big ground ball rate can do just that. His count should be up to about 90 if he can make it that far, and this could be a strong pivot to potential Gray chalk.
Honorable Mention
This may be more for 20-max formats but Zach Thompson is mildly interesting. He’s had some success against the left side of the plate with a .260 wOBA, a .208 average, and an 18.9% K rate. The xFIP is still 4.26 so it could certainly go south but he will also face as many as six lefties. San Francisco can be a tough offense to attack but Thompson has held his ERA under 2.40 since the start of May with a wOBA under .270 and his strikeout rate has come up a tick as well.
We’re going to need to play this one by ear, but Bailey Falter is on the radar. This will be the second game of a doubleheader and even though Washington is not the offense we target with lefties generally, that is subject to change. The Nats have the best K rate against lefties at 17.5% but we could see an easier lineup in the second game and Falter has been lights out at AAA this year with a 1.54 ERA, 3.22 xFIP, and a 33.7% K rate. That’s enough to raise some eyebrows and if hitters like Juan Soto, Nelson Cruz, or Josh Bell sit out, it changes the calculus.
Clayton Kershaw – This list is bigger than normal since we have a lot of big names that I’m just not interested in. As a reminder, there are paths to success and these are good pitchers but I’m chasing the best possible spots on the slate since it’s so big. I’m not even giving Kershaw much consideration as he only threw 71 pitches in the last start, his first since the start of May. He’s likely to top out at 85 pitches and I can’t pay the top salary for that.
Pablo Lopez – Along the same lines, Lopez had this start pushed back due to a wrist injury that he sustained on the 10th. Sure, it’s not a long layoff but the fact that he had to be pushed back makes me nervous and the Mets aren’t the ideal matchup anyway with a K rate under 20%.
Lucas Giolito – Houston only whiffs 20.7% of the time, which is not a good start. I will say Giolito has a 30.7% K rate and his 3.28 xFIP is lower than the 3.88 ERA. The largest issue in my eyes is his struggles against righty hitters, which is the majority of the Houston lineup most nights. They have a 6.24 FIP, a 2.73 HR/9, and a wOBA over .400. While he could neutralize the lefties with a 39.6% K rate, the normal Astros lineup will not do him any favors.
Carlos Carrasco – The Marlins are better than most think and they’re likely going to be righty-heavy tonight. That has been the worse side for Carrasco with a 3.72 xFIP, a 22.1% K rate, and a .313 wOBA. Miami only whiffs 21.9% of the time and they are in the top five in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+.
Robbie Ray – I’d rather use some of the top-of-the-order hitters against him, even though he always has strikeout upside. The HR/9 is over 1.55 against both sides of the plate and the Angels have some big-time power at the top of the lineup.
Twins
Phillies
Mariners (LHH)
Padres
Rockies
D-Backs
Dodgers
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/17 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Stack City, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
Today we have just a 5-game slate. At first glance, we have limited options outside of one glaring spot. That said, we’ll find some spots for us take advantage of.
Always make sure to read Adam’s Starting Rotation when setting your lineup. It’s hands down the best pitching article in the MLB DFS business.
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!
Patrick Corbin on the mound? Check! Patrick Corbin on the mound vs. a team that is crushing southpaws? Check! While Corbin hasn’t been awful of late, I also wouldn’t categorize him as good. He’s now gone six consecutive starts with allowing at least 3 ER. With a matchup against a team that has crushed lefties this year, he should make it a seventh consecutive start.
On the year, the Phillies have a 114 wRC against lefties and a .189 ISO. They can show power against them in an instant and they’ll do that tonight. As long as Corbin continues to give up barrels and homers at the pace he gives them up, I’m just going to continue to stack against him. Will it always work out? Nope. But more often than not it will, especially in the right matchup. And tonight we have the right matchup.
This Phillies stack will start with Rhys Hoskins. Hoskins is on absolute fire right now. Since June 7, he’s hit safely in 8 of his 9 games. Over that stretch, he’s had 6 multi-hit games and 2 multi-homer games. Against southpaws over the last month, he’s just been balling. He has a .414 ISO and a .500 wOBA against them. He’s as dialed in as he’s been and until he cools down we’ll want to prioritize getting him in there.
Next up is Nick Castellanos. While he’s not overly hot right now, this is a spot for him to take advantage of. Corbin throws his sinker more than 44% of the time to righties. Against lefty sinkers, Castle has a .435 ISO and a .611 wOBA. He’s historically crushed them and if there were ever a ‘get-right’ spot for him to show some power, this is it.
Other bats I’ll look to prioritize getting in here are going to be Alec Bohm, Bryce Harper, and Matt Vierling.
Through his first 9 starts this season, Beau Brieske has really only had one or two bad starts. He’s given up more than 3 ER just twice and recently gave up 0 ER against the mighty Toronto Blue Jays. He’s been able to do this while just giving up a ton of contact. His 82% contact rate would rank third among all the pitchers on tonight’s slate. Of that 82% contact, almost 36% of it has been hard-hit. He’s also given up 12 barrels over his 26 innings of work and 7 bombs.
So far, Brieske has been extremely lucky to avoid giving up too much damage. With the amount of contact and hard contact that he gives up, at some point, the dominos are going to fall for an epic game against him and I’m going to want to be part of the game. Tonight, there’s a strong chance they fall.
My first piece to this Rangers stack will be Adolis Garcia. Garcia’s been their hottest hitter of late. He’s currently riding a 7-game-hitting streak where he’s had 13 hits. He’s been on fire and it should continue in an exploitable matchup. He also lines up well with Brieske. Brieske will throw a fastball/slider combo to righties. Garcia has strong power numbers against both pitches. While Garcia is always a risk to K, knowing that Brieske is a low K guy, I’m not going to be overly concerned with the K risk.
Next up will be Marcus Semien. Over the last couple of weeks, Semien has finally started to show some of the power and stats that helped him land his massive contract from the Rangers. After starting the year slowly, he finally has his average up to .220 and is up to 6 homers and 25 RBI on the year. Not All-Star numbers just yet, but he’s been increasing his production and that should continue tonight.
I’ll also want some of Ezequiel Duran in this stack. At just $2.5k on DK, he’s one of my favorite value plays of the day. He’s had hits in 5 straight, including 3 multi-hit games. Over that stretch, he’s also had 2 stolen bases. If he gets on, which he has been, he’s going to try to swipe a bag. Other guys I like here are going to be Corey Seager, Kole Calhoun, and Nate Lowe.
The Angels have been one of the worst teams in baseball over the last month or so. They have just too good of a lineup to be this bad for this long. At some point, they’re going to break back out. Could it be tonight against a pitcher that’s given up 7 homers and 11 barrels in his last 27 innings of work? Absolutely. So far in his brief career, righties have been what has given Kirby fits. They have a .305 ISO and a .375 wOBA against him. Most importantly, his K rate drops down to just 19% against righties.
Even though Mike Trout is matchup-proof, knowing that Kirby is worse against righties makes me love him even more in this matchup. There’s not much I need to say to sell you on Trout. He’s the best player in the game, and even though he’s ‘cool’ right now, he’s always a risk for a monster game. Against righties over the last month, Trout has a .355 ISO and a .363 wOBA. He’s always in play, especially in a matchup with a pitcher that has struggled against righties.
Next up will be Taylor Ward. Yes, he’s ice-cold right now and only has 8 AB since coming off the IL. That said, he started off the year extremely solid and that player is still in there. He’s going to see a ton of sliders tonight as he throws it more than 50% of the time to righties. Ward’s historically done well against them as he has a .380 wOBA against them from righties. If Kirby hangs one, Ward should be able to do some damage.
Other guys I like here are going to be Jared Walsh, Brandon Marsh, and Shohei Ohtani.
Other stacks I’ll like here are going to be the Mets vs. Ashby, Milwaukee vs. Megill, and Tigers vs. Perez. I also like the Yankees tonight. Depending on what the Rays do with pitching, they could slide into my top 3 stacks.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
The main slate tonight has only nine games but the top end of the salary grid is loaded with quality options including arguably the best fantasy pitcher in all of baseball so far. Oh, Corbin Burnes is on this slate as well so we have some interesting choices to make. There is also at least one strong option in the punt range so we can try unique builds in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/15!
It’s comforting to know that in this crazy world, we can bank on Shane O’Mac coming out every start and doing magical things with a baseball. Sure, the Yankees are dangerous against lefty pitchers but McClanahan has been a different breed this season and leads the league in K rate over 37% while also boasting a swinging-strike rate of 16.9%. That’s what happens when three of four pitches have a whiff rate over 34.5% and you can still whip in a four-seam that can touch 99 mph. His xFIP is 2.02, the FIP is 2.45, and the ERA is just 1.87 and while we know he’s going to have a bad start here and there, absolutely nothing in the profile suggests that’s happening tonight. Neither side is over a .245 wOBA, both sides whiff over 35%, and both sides have a matching 0.86 WHIP. It’s hard to find anything to not like here.
Provided there isn’t a crazy and in Wrigley to deal with, this could wind up being a great spot for Musgrove because the Cubs tend to play 5-6 righty hitters and that’s directly in the wheelhouse for Big Joe. He’s significantly better when facing a righty hitter with a .218 wOBA, 0.76 WHIP, a walk rate of just 2.4%, and an xFIP of 2.96. The K rate drops a bit to 24.4% but everything else improves so that it’s a wash with the 26.6% mark he has when facing a lefty. No pitch is thrown more than 28.5% and the slider leads the pack there with a 37.7% whiff rate and 27 strikeouts while the four-seam and curve have 20 each. The Cubs are just 13th when facing a slider and even the 3.17 xFIP in total doesn’t worry me much, although I obviously don’t expect Musgrove to carry a 1.50 ERA through the season. His ground ball rate is over 46% and the hard-hit rate is under 24%, a perfect mix to put up a big score in Wrigley.
The Padres elected to move Musgrove and start Ryan Weathers and with the perfect hitting conditions in Wrigley tonight, this game has turned into a chalk-fest for hitters.
He’s already faced the Rays once and scored 27 DK on them in an eight-inning start and this may not be the best spot for strikeouts ever since the Rays are barely over 17% as a team. Tampa is also just 16th when facing a cutter and the version from Cortes has only allowed a .238 wOBA and it has 31 strikeouts. He also has a 0.84 HR/9, a FIP of 2.85, a K rate of 28.6%, and a barrel rate under 5%. It can be tough to make good contact against Cortes since the hard-hit rate is also just 25.3% and even the 43.8% fly-ball rate doesn’t seem to be a massive issue with just a 3.24 xFIP. Righties only have a .253 wOBA against Cortes and if the Rays try to play lefties, Cortes counters with a 35.5% K rate and a 0.67 WHIP. I likely favor Musgrove with the splits, but both pitchers just get the job done this year.
Honorable Mention
Corbin Burnes will never be all the way out of play, regardless of any circumstance but he has pitched worse than McClanahan and doesn’t have an easy matchup either. The Mets have the second-lowest K rate against righties in the majors and Burnes is under 32% for the K rate. Don’t get it confused, that’s still third-highest in the majors so it’s not bad by any stretch but Burnes has had some varied results lately. He only throws them a combined 17% of the time but his sinker/slider combo has gotten roughed up in 2022 compared to 2021. Last year, the slider had a .151 wOBA and this year it’s at .272 while the sinker has skyrocketed from .229 to .516. After he only allowed seven home runs in 2021, Burnes is already at nine this year and six have come from the slider/sinker, not great considering how much he throws them. With a 1.51 HR/9 against the right side of the plate, we could potentially get a low-owned Pete Alonso and I think Burnes will be fine, but paying off the salary is a question. I would never tell anyone they’re wrong for playing him, just point out that his past few starts have been like riding the roller coaster.
We actually have a reasonable salary for Berrios, who has scored at least 18 DK in four of his past five starts and there is some hope that he’s got his mojo working. In the past two starts, he’s thrown 15 innings, allowed three earned runs, walked three hitters, allowed eight hits, and has 18 strikeouts. Berrios has thrown the curveball over 30% of the time in four of the past five and in his four good starts, it totaled 2.9 FanGraphs points and in the one poor one, it got hammered for -1.6. Getting that curve working is not only a big deal just for him in general but the Orioles are third against it so they will smack around a bad curve. His metrics are all still ugly and out of whack, so we have to hope that the past two starts represent the turnaround which also has a .215 wOBA, a 32.7% K rate, and a 2.51 xFIP. Baltimore is creeping up to almost a 23% K rate so there is a tangible upside for Berrios tonight.
Washington isn’t our favorite target to use pitchers against because they don’t help out too much with a K rate of just 20.1% against righties. However, the walk rate is barely above 7% and they’re only 17th in wRC+, 16th in wOBA, 23rd in ISO, and 17th in OPS. Since moving into the rotation, Strider has only thrown 14 innings but his pitch count has climbed with each start and he topped out at 92 last time out. His K rate is holding strong at 33.3% and the ERA hasn’t moved much from his mark when he was a reliever at 2.57 and the xFIP is barely over 3.00. We could hope Juan Soto sat out another game but that remains to be seen and his four-seam remains his weapon of choice at over 65% of the time in his three starts. Washington is sixth against the fastball but the bottom line is Strider is still extremely cheap for what he can put out there. The Nationals may not be the ideal dance partner but he can still score over 20 so he’s worth consideration.
The strikeout matchup isn’t perfect but I’m happier attacking the Cardinals lineup with a righty pitcher since St. Louis is 21st in ISO, 18th in wOBA, 13th in wRC+, 18th in OPS, and 13th in OBP. The young righty for the Bucks has a 3.31 xFIP, a 3.25 FIP, and an ERA of just 2.57. He’s also striking out 28.2% of the hitters he faces with a walk rate under 8%, positive signs for a long pitcher in the majors. His 14.5% swinging-strike rate is a big number and the slider has generated a 48.7% whiff rate and 19 strikeouts with a .241 wOBA. The Cards are this when facing a fastball but they also dip down to 18th when facing a slider so Contreras does have that in his favor. His splits do present a bit of a worry with a .353 wOBA against righty hitters but the K rate is 30% and the xFIP is lower than the left side at 3.18. After all, we’re only talking 28 innings pitched in total this year so splits may not be the best thing to judge by and the .378 BABIP is pretty high. Contreras hasn’t earned any type of trust yet, but DK won’t raise his salary either.
Tyler Anderson – I’m not in a huge rush to target the Angels lineup now that they are healthier but they are only mid-pack in wOBA and wRC+ against lefties. They also still carry a high K rate of 23.9% and Anderson is solid at 23.4% himself but his xFIP against the right side is 3.78. He could have a strong start but I’m not thrilled with the salary so I likely skip him.
David Peterson/Jack Flaherty – These guys both fall into the same bucket for me because I have concerns about the pitch count. Peterson gets a Milwaukee lineup that can hit lefties when they’re healthy and he only threw 45 pitches in his last appearance and hasn’t crossed five innings since the 23rd of May. For Flaherty, he’ll make his season debut but he only is stretched out to 58 pitches. That’s not quite enough for $8,100 on DK in my eyes, even against a Pirates team that has lost nine straight.
Caleb Kilian – The Padres couldn’t hit Kyle Hendricks last night and Kilian had a solid big league debut, striking out six and allowing three earned. He generated a 54.5% ground ball rate, a 3.11 xFIP, and a 10.8% swinging-strike rate. In AAA this season, he has a 25.7% K rate so he has that ability and the ground ball rate is even higher at almost 58%. That’s a good combo to take chances on in the bottom range if you don’t believe Contreras can get it done.
Blue Jays
Rockies
Dodgers
Braves
Red Sox
A’s
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