It’s Sunday Funday which means we have a full slate of games and with that comes some great props to play on PrizePicks. Some of my favorite pitchers to attack today are on the mound and that means I’ll be attacking them with some hitter props.
Not already a PrizePicks member? Sign up today using the button below and you’ll get a bonus match of 100% up to $100. And to top it off, we’ll give you a free month of Win Daily Gold ($50 value).
Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.
Any time that Vincent Velasquez is on the mound, I automatically look to take some bats against him. He’s just not a good pitcher and one that gives up way too much contact. If we look at the advanced metrics of his first start, he got pretty lucky as he escaped with a 2.25 ERA. Whether it’s the 100% LOB, the 82% contact, or the 75% flyball rate, everything says that he should have given up way more runs than he did.
The first guy I’m going to attack him with today is Brandon Lowe, who had a really solid last week. Over the last week, Lowe had 3 homers and 8 runs scored. He’ll bat the top of the lineup today and should be a catalyst for a team that has the potential to put up a big number. I love the Over on this PrizePicks projection.
Franco is another guy that I like in this same matchup. He too had a great week. Over his last 30 Abs, Franco has 11 hits with 6 runs scored. He also has a 44% hard-hit rate. Franco is crushing the ball and with an easy matchup today, he should continue to roll. A 1-2 punch of Lowe and Franco will be successful in your DFS lineups today as well as crushing with PrizePicks projections. I’m going with the Over here.
It’s a Patrick Corbin day! If ever there was a day for him to have a good day, it would be today against a below-average Pirates lineup. They’re in the bottom half of the league in terms of barrel % and hard-hit rate over the last week. That said, he’s still a bad pitcher and righties torch him. This is a very attainable projection for Hayes today.
Over the last week, Hayes has really been seeing the ball well as he has a 50% hard rate on 25 Abs. He also has 10 actual hits over those 25 ABs with 4 runs scored. Really just need a double and a run scored from Hayes today and that seems very attainable. I like the Over on this PrizePicks number.
I feel like all the pitchers throwing today are ones that are on my list to continuously attack regardless of the team they are playing against. Ober made the list year and today he faces off against a tough Red Sox lineup. Ober has been pretty bad against both sides of the plate since he cracked the Majors last year. I’m going to side with lefties in this matchup though because they tend to hit the ball just a bit farther against him.
I love this matchup for Devers today. Since the start of last year, he’s had a .340 ISO against righties, and today he gets a very average one. He should have absolutely no problem with the low 90’s fastball that Ober will throw to him. Devers is also swinging a hot bat, with 10 hits in his last 26 Abs. Look for Devers to have a great day at the plate and I really like the Over here on this PrizePicks number.
I expect Ober to get rocked pretty hard today and that means a short outing. Vegas agrees as the Red Sox have an implied run total of 5 today. While Ober should get rocked today and that’s one thing against him, the Red Sox are a team that really hasn’t been striking out much to start the season. Over the last week, the Red Sox have just a 23% K rate. Only a handful of teams have been striking out less than them. It’s going to be a tough day for Ober on the hill and I just don’t think he lasts long enough to get his 5 K’s. I’m going with the Under on this one.
This is a great Sunday slate and whether you celebrate Easter or Passover, I hope y’all get to spend the day with family. I’m going to thoroughly enjoy watching some of my list of pitchers get tagged today and see those green bars on PrizePicks.
Whether it’s for PrizePicks or DFS, make sure you’re reading all of our great MLB content.
Good luck and hope to see some green bars tonight!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
We have a full slate of action this Sunday afternoon with 10 games and some actual options at the top of the grid. The mid-range and below start to get questionable so we’re going to have some work to do with those pitchers to find some options. Let’s dig into the MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 4/17and figure out who’s the main target up top and who needs to complement them!
Manoah took the ball in his first stat in New York and shoved for six innings, whiffing seven hitters on 89 pitches while walking four. The Yankees only got him for one hit and he generated a 50% ground ball rate, 13.5% swinging-strike rate, and the velocity was up just a tick. It was notable that his four-seam got a whiff rate of 41.2% compared to 32.5% last year and the slider jumped up by 7.4% as well. Manoah already displayed a 27.7% K rate during last season, if he’s got even better swing-and-miss stuff, the sky could really be the limit here. His K strut game is also elite already. We touched on this yesterday that Oakland has been better than advertised so far but they are in the bottom half of the league against righty pitching. Additionally, they have a K rate over 26% against righties and Manoah was excellent with walking four hitters and the salary dropped for some reason on DK. I can’t help but go right back to him.
There was some good and bad in the first start for Wheeler as he rolls into a matchup with the Marlins today. The good was he only allowed one earned run in 4.2 IP and he only walked one hitter. Wheeler also managed to generate a 32.3% CSW and only allowed one barrel all day. Now, the bad news is his velocity was way down at 95 mph on the four-seam compared to 97.2 last season, and his whiff rate dropped from 26% in 2021 to just 10% in the first turn. Perhaps his arm wasn’t where it needed to be because he also threw just 65 pitches, so getting to 90 is probably about as high as he could go. That’s an advantage to Manoah right off the bat and the swinging-strike rate was concerning as well at 6.2%. That would be bad enough but when it goes hand-in-hand with a drop in velocity, that’s more notable. If he can ramp up the four-seam, my caution may look silly but I don’t trust that or the pitch count right now. Who knows how long this can last but Miami is too 10 in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ right now, and they’re under 21% for their K rate against righty pitching. The K rate was dead even to each side of the plate last year at 29.1% and the xFIP was lower at 2.61 so there is potential here with likely six righties for Miami, but there are some concerns here as well.
I think Wood is definitely the third of the expensive guys but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have some upside at the salary. It was very notable that the sinker for Wood was up over 93 mph for the average (91.8 mph last year)and he may have fallen in love with it just a bit since it also hit 95 mph in portions of the game. Wood threw that pitch 52.3% of the time and threw fewer changeups, while his slider had a 55.6% whiff rate. The newfound velocity is great but last year the slider was the strikeout pitch with 91 strikeouts and the sinker still gave up four hits which included a home run. The swinging-strike rate was down to 9.3% compared to 12.5% but the CSW was 32.6% so Wood was still fooling hitters. Cleveland has been white-hot so far but we’ve seen a talented pitcher can get through that lineup as Carlos Rodon did on Friday. Now, Wood is not Rodon but he did have a 26% K rate last year and added to his arsenal. Cleveland is also striking out almost 26% of the time against lefties so far so Wood could be a strong GPP-pivot today if the other two are major chalk.
Honorable Mention – I’ll give Aaron Civale a mention strictly because he’s always handled lefties in his career with a .283 wOBA, 23.6% K rate, 3.98 xFIP, and a 1.08 WHIP. The Giants are likely to throw out five lefties but the salary is not very appealing in my eyes. His K rate for his career is just 20.5% and it gets difficult to build paths to success over $9,000 with that low of a mark, in addition to a career 4.31 xFIP. Oh, by the way, San Francisco is a top-five offense in OPS, ISO, wOBA, wRC+, and OBP against righties so far.
This range is mostly gross but Cortes does stand out among the crowd with some potential. It’s always going to catch our eye to some extent when a pitcher can walk through the Blue Jays lineup but Cortes did that trick through 4.1 IP and 72 pitches thrown. While his swinging-strike rate doesn’t stand out in any way at 8.3%, he still got five strikeouts and didn’t allow a single barrel. The fly-ball tendencies were still there with a 45% rate but the xFIP, FIP, and xERA were all under 2.45 from that start and the Orioles have moved their fences back this year. So far, that’s had a big effect as they’re still looking for the first home run from a visitor. This cutter is from last season but it shows how big of a weapon it is for Cortes and he’s started to utilize it as a back-door cutter to righties (on the outside of the plate). That would make life more difficult and so far, Baltimore is striking out almost 30% of the time and is in the bottom 10 in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, and OPS. Cortes only has 17 career starts under his belt but he is starting to turn into a very strong pitcher.
Honorable Mention – Some may want to play Dakota Hudson and I get it to an extent. The Brewers offense has been horrific in the early going, sitting in the bottom five in almost all offensive categories. I simply don’t pay these prices for pitchers that have so little strikeout ability as Hudson is at 18.2% for his career. Some days I miss on good starts but I avoid an $8,600 land mine more often than not and that trend continues today.
I know some in the Discord will be on Bruce Zimmermann and after seeing the Yankees offense this first week plus a little bit…I’m not going to say no outright. The New York offense is built in a certain way and they’re going to have some prolonged cold stretches, as they are now. They have the third-most PA against righty pitching and are 15th in average and wRC+, 19th in OBP, wOBA, OPS, 18th in ISO, and they have a 25.4% K rate. Just keep in mind they can break out with frightening speed and Zimmermann is a leftyz and NY is better suited for lefty pitching. Even though theyve been bad against righties, that may not transfer to this spot although Zimmermann has a career ERA over 5.00 with a K rate of barely 20.1%. Both sides of the plate have wOBA’s over .345 and RHH have the better success with a 1.96 HR/9 and 4.81 xFIP on top of it.
This is a DK-only play for me because you’re playing Peterson in conjunction with a better pitcher to hopefully form a tag team more than a solo act. Peterson was forced into long relief when Taijuan Walker had to leave the game last time and is now on the IL. He threw 58 pitches and is on schedule, so we should get 70-75 I would bet unless the Dodgers are in charge. He’d only pitch 60 in that case but I digress. I can’t pretend Peterson is anything special as the lefty has 120.1 IP on the major-league level and has a 4.42 xFIP and just a 22.1% K rate. Think about that for a second though and you can get a 22% K rate for about $2,000 less than Hudson from St. Louis. Peterson also gets a spectacular matchup as Arizona is dead last in wRC+, ISO (they are the only team at .000 through 58 PA), and batting average. Peterson does have a solid ground ball rate and he used the change/sinker combo around 60% of the time. That would be a shift in his mix from his sample in 2021 and the four-seam was his primary pitch. There is a risk with pitchers at this salary and while Peterson is very average, the matchup pushes him onto the table. I’d prefer to play him in GPP unless we have to play him with the field in cash.
Honorable Mention – I’d love to play Aaron Ashby as I’m a sucker for pitching prospects, especially when they can do this. The issue is (granted, 46 PA so far) the Cards have gone scorched Earth on lefties, ranking first in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, OPS, and average. The ISO as a team is .442 and the next best squad is the White Sox…at .279. We’ll catch Ashby another time.
The Tampa Bay Rays jump out here facing Vince Velasquez, who walked away from his firs stat with some horrifying metrics. He gave up a 25% barrel rate, had an xFIP over 7.56, a fly-ball rate of 75%, more walks than strikeouts, and a swinging-strike rate of 8.1%. The results didn’t look bad but he was a blowup waiting to happen with an average exit velocity of 95 mph and a launch angle of 37.1%. He’s always been worse to lefties with a .355 wOBA and a 4.48 xFIP with a WHIP over 1.50, so this is a very poor matchup from that respect. Tampa should play at least five here and Vinnie Melo pounded fastballs to the left side in the first start. Brandon Lowe, Wander Franco, Brett Phillips, Ji-Man Choi, and Kevin Kiermaier hit the fastball well last year and that doesn’t even include Josh Lowe, who is still cheap at least. All of the other Rays were at least above a .300 wOBA and all but Franco had an ISO over .150.
We can also mix and match Mets since they get to face Humberto Castellanos of the D-Backs and in his 59.1 career IP, the xFIP is 5.12, the K rate is just 16.5%, and his swinging-strike rate is 7.7%. His primary pitch to lefties is the four-seam and it’s gotten mashed for a wOBA over .360 since last year in his sample size. Unsurprisingly, he’s worse against lefties with a .361 wOBA, xFIP over 6.00, and a HR/9 over 1.88. Now, he’s not good against righties either so we can go full bore here. Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil, Robinson Cano, and Eduardo Escobar can all be played from the left side and Pete Alonso was the best fastball hitter on the Mets last year. Starling Marte is expensive but I’m betting the field agrees, leaving him lower-rostered than he should be.
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 4/17 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Saturday beings us a ton of baseball as all teams are in action and with that comes some great props to play on PrizePicks. We have some great pitchers to attack today with some props and I’ll look to walk you through them.
Not already a PrizePicks member? Sign up today using the button below and you’ll get a bonus match of 100% up to $100. And to top it off, we’ll give you a free month of Win Daily Gold ($50 value).
Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.
As a fan, we’ve really been robbed of getting to see Trout over the last couple of years as he’s battled some injuries. He’s healthy now and starting to heat up. Trout already has 3 hits and 2 walks in this series, including 1 homer and 1 double. Now Trout gets put into a great matchup who has historically not done too well against right-handed hitting.
Since the start of the 2021 season, Taylor Hearn has given up a .349 wOBA to them with a 46% hard-hit rate. In his career, Trout has a slugging % over .500 to lefties. Look for Trout to continue his hot start in Texas. I like the over on this PrizePicks projection.
Anytime there’s a game in Coors, there’s always going to be a chance for some fireworks. Add in a pitcher that hasn’t thrown in the big leagues in a few years, well you have a chance for a spectacular show! Leiter hasn’t really pitched much over the last few years due to injury and Covid wiping out the 2020 minors season. Having to throw your first major league game in 4 years in Coors is going to be no easy task.
The Rockies should be able to get to Leiter early in this one. With a game that already has an implied run total of 12, we should expect scoring early and often. I’m going with the Over on this first running projection from PrizePicks.
Since the start of the 2021 season, Bryse Wilson has been pretty poor against left-handed hitters. They have a .224 ISO against him and a .347 wOBA. He’s attackable from both sides of the plate, but lefties tend to get more loft so we can chase homers a bit more with them.
In this matchup, I really like Bell this afternoon. He’s been one of the Nationals’ best hitters to start the year. Over the last week, he has 9 hits in his last 26 at-bats, with 7 RBIs. He’s been extremely productive and there’s nothing about this matchup that should stop it. I like the Over on this PrizePicks number.
Raise your hand if the Yankees buried you in fantasy yesterday. They sure did for me. But in DFS and also with PrizePicks, you need to have a short term memory. The one guy that really wasn’t a disappointment yesterday was Stanton as he had 3 hits and the lone RBI in last night’s dud for the Yanks. Stanton gets another plus matchup in this on.
Since last year, Wells has gotten hit very hard by righties, with a 48% hard-hit rate from them and a 54% flyball rate. Wells will throw Stanton a bunch of sliders tonight and if you know anything about Stanton, you know he LOVES left-handed sliders. Look for Stanton to go deep, even with the new wall in Camden. I’m siding with the Over on this number.
Prized prospect Hunter Greene got hit pretty hard in his career debut. The Braves had a 50% hard-hit rate against him and 3 barrels but were only able to put up 3 runs. While it’s just a 1 game sample size in the Majors and we need to take it with a grain of salt, lefties had a 60% hard-hit rate against him. Due to knowing that, I’m going to target him with a lefty that has a really low projection in Bellinger.
To say that the last couple of years have been a disappointment for Bellinger would be an understatement. He is however showing some signs of life with 6 hits in his last 21 Abs. All we need out of him is a double tonight and I absolutely think he can get there. I’m going with the Over on this PrizePicks number.
We have a full day of baseball and I for one feel like a kid in a candy store. I tried to pluck out the PrizePicks projections that made the most sense to attack. While I picked Bell against Wilson, going with Soto at 8.5 hitter fantasy score will also make sense. The same goes for Aaron Judge. I threw out Stanton, but Judge gets the same matchup and should do well tonight.
Whether it’s for PrizePicks or DFS, make sure you’re reading all of our great MLB content.
Good luck and hope to see some green bars tonight!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
It’s Saturday in the majors and that means split slates with a day slate and then the main slate in the evening, so there are plenty of options to choose from. The quality of those options is up to debate to some extent but there are solid choices on both slates. Let’s get right into all the action today and tonight in the MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 4/16 to find our green screens again!
Note – The early slate is split differently depending on which site you’re on. DK has a six-game slate that starts at 1:00 p.m. but FD is six games that starts at 4:00 p.m. In truth, the only pitching plays that look strong on FD that isn’t available on DK are Anthony DeSclafani and Ranger Suarez. I’m not super motivated to play DeSclafani as the most expensive option there and the fact he was worse to lefties last year with a .301 wOBA and a 1.21 WHIP. Cleveland could put more than a few lefties into the lineup so if that happens, I’d be more likely to go elsewhere. Suarez got blistered in his first start but he did get a ground ball rate of 69% and the Marlins are in the bottom three of every offensive category and they lead in K rate at over 39%. It’s a great bounce-back spot and the salary works on FD to be sure.
As far as DK, this appears to be a slate where the bats are going to do the talking. I’m not finding myself all that interested in either of the pitchers that are above $9,000 (the cutoff for aces, generally). Sonny Gray takes on the Red Sox in Boston and while the Sox bats have been cold to start the year against righties, his xFIP was 4.48 in the first start and the K rate was 20%. I do have to give him the fact the swinging-strike rate was 11.8% but he gave up a wOBA over .295 to each side of the plate last year. I’m not going to be in the habit of attacking the Red Sox unless the sample gets bigger and they aren’t striking out much at just 18.9%.
Zac Gallen does have some strikeout upside with a career 27.6% K rate but his swinging-trike rate was only 9.1% last year and that was the first time he pitched more than 80 innings in a season. Both sides of the plate had a wOBA of at least .306 and these just aren’t metrics that we want to pay a big salary for. I’m betting that one of these pitchers might be chalky for cash games and that’s fine but I won’t be pitching them other than that. There’s too many issues around them to feel that safe.
This is an interesting spot because Ryu got pummeled in his first start but his metrics painted a much rosier picture with a 3.31 xFIp compared to his 16.20 ERA, his K rate was 23.5%, and the BABIP was .400. He’s really not a pitcher that is going to get a big whiff rate on any one pitch and that happened again as nothing was over 22.2%. Everything as far as velocity looked the same as it did last year and now we get to the matchup. The A’s have bit us on some slates so far but on the season, they are still an average offense in OBP, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ against lefty pitching. Oakland has the seventh-most plate appearances to lefties and they also have the sixth-highest K rate at 31.8%. I don’t believe we have any safe options on the early slate but I do think Ryu gets back in the saddle today and is firmly in play given the slate context.
Picking on the Diamondbacks has been profitable so far and I would expect that to continue through most of the year and Carrasco put together an encouraging start in the first game. His CSW got over 30% with a 13.9% swinging-strike rate and he did not walk a hitter. Giving up three barrels is not ideal in just 79 pitches but the xFIP was still only 3.07 so that’s a strong mark. Another strong aspect today for Carrasco is Arizona has a ton of lefties and even in a tough year last year, Carrasco was far superior to that side of the plate with a .299 wOBA, 1.03 HR/9, and 4.08 WHIP. The K rate dips below 24% which is a small issue but the salary helps make up for that and he still had a whiff ate of at least 18% for his slider/change/four-seam mix that was the bulk to lefty hitters in the first start. Arizona has a K rate over 26% so far this season and they are hitting under .150 as a team while sitting in 24th in wOBA and 26th in wC+.
Another reason I’m not spending much on pitching today is because I have the ability to play a fireballer like Kopech who has a career K rate against lefties of 41.5% across 159 batters faced. The Rays could throw as many as six out there in this game and Kopech threw 69 pitches in his last game, so 80-85 makes plenty of sense. The K rate may fall some since he’s not a reliever at this point but even if it drops by 10% against lefties…that’s still interesting. Kopech has only started nine games in his career so there are going to be bumps in the road to be sure. One aspect that’s a little concerning is his four-seam velocity was down by two mph in that first start but he also was dealing with injuries in spring. It could be he just wasn’t all the way there yet with his arm strength and if he regains his form, he is too cheap for the pitch count. Much like the others, he’s not safe but there’s sky-high potential.
Martinez is a pitcher that we need to be careful as far as saying one great start is the normal for Martinez because he was out of the league for so long. That being said, it was a strong first start with a 1.82 FIP, 28.6% K rate, 14.5% swinging-strike rate, and a 38.6% CSW. Something that is a concern is the fly-ball rate of 53.8% and the hard-hit rate over 38% and the wOBA’s were still over .300 against each side of the plate. His four-seam sat at 92.4 mph and had a .525 wOBA, another reason to at least be a little bit cautious here. The positives were his cutter/change/curve mix all totaled up 52% of his pitches and they were fantastic with at least a 45.5% whiff rate and he didn’t give up a hit with them. If the four-seam gets figured out, there could be something here with Martinez. Atlanta is 14th against that pitch early on and that would match the ranking of 13th from last year so there is danger, but he’s not terribly expensive and the Braves are also whiffing at 25.7% so far.
Since we’re not likely spending up on pitching, the Jays certainly look fun. Paul Blackburn had a great start in the first turn but he has a career 4.55 xFIP, 13.5% K rate, and a 7.1% swinging-strike rate. Now, I’m more likely to use 2-3 man stacks on this slate in lieu of a huge one but Blackburn has allowed a .347 wOBA and just an 11.5 K rate to the right side in his career. That means we’re looking at the main candidates in Vlad Jr., George Springer, and Bo Bichette. We can also chase the Tigers/Royals game because Matt Manning had some troubling metrics in his first start and Kris Bubic got hammered. On the Royals side, Bobby Witt Jr. and Whit Merrifield are the top end targets and we’ll see what lineup the Tigers use with Javier Baez struggling with a thumb injury. If you don’t go Vlad at first base, Spencer Torkleson is my main player for Detroit as he murdered a baseball last night and is getting comfortable.
I was very hesitant with Verlander in his first start for quite a fe reasons but he came out of that start looking like…well, mostly Justin Verlander that we’ve known for so long. The K rate was 35% but that doesn’t mean everything was great. He only generated a swinging-strike rate of 8.8% and his fly-ball rate was over 44% with a 20% barrel rate. He did get a whiff rate of at least 24% on all three of his pitches and he deployed the slider against righties and the curve against lefties. Seattle’s new-look offense is not clicking yet as they sit in the bottom 10 in all offensive categories that we utilize (with the exception of wRC+, where they rank 16th) and they’re whiffing 25% of the time. Verlander should face at least 3-4 lefties and he did have most of his strikeouts against them at a 45.5% rate in the first start. I’m not totally in love with the profile but the matchup is solid and it’s not like he pitched horribly.
The box scores looks bad for Urias but that tends to happen often in Coors Field so I give it very little weight. The concerning issue was his four-seam was down a lot by almost three mph and it’s not a big surprise it had a 0% whiff rate while it got smacked for a .489 wOBA. His curve had a 30% whiff rate but gave up a home run and Urias navigated those issues with a 46.2% ground ball rate. Cincinnati is mostly average against lefties so far this year with a 19.1% K rate but they are also 17th against the fastball so far and dead last against the curve. Last season saw Urias whiff 76 hitters with that curve and it’s a strong bounce-back spot, even without much of a discount.
Honorable Mention – I’m not sure I can stomach pitching Steven Matz at his salary, but man the Brewers offense has been dreadful so far. They are in the bottom 10 in about any facet you can find but the salary is really asking a lot for Matz and there’s a large path to not hitting value.
We don’t really have tiers after the top two players and it might be a night were we need to comb for some cheaper hitters instead. Let’s give a quick rundown on some of the options that have a path to success, but a large path to failure.
Noah Syndergaard – Another 15 DK points wouldn’t kill you, but he struck out just one hitter and had a 5.16 xFIP with a 75% ground ball rate. Perhaps he can get through the Texas lineup with that, but I don’t love the idea of trying it. He did at least mostly shelf his four-seam with just 15 thrown (the least of any pitch) because it had a .406 wOBA.
Hunter Greene – I’m as excited as anyone outside of Cincy for this kid, but he had a 6.62 FIP and two homer runs in the first start. While the velocity is eye-popping on the four-seam at 99.7 mph, it doesn’t matter if you’re throwing it over 60% of the time because MLB-level hitters will catch up (both homers came off the fastball). His swinging-strike rate was 14.1% and he got a whiff ate of 45.5% so there is so much talent here. It’s just the Dodgers aren’t a friendly matchup by any means and the slider/change combo has to be a bigger weapon as he goes.
The last pitcher I can get after is Jameson Taillon and he walked through the Toronto matchup mostly in good shape. His four-seam/slider combo both had a whiff rate over 40% and even though the slider gave up a home run, Taillon only gave up four other hits. The 2.39 xFIP was strong, as was the 16.7% swinging-strike rate and 31.9% CSW. Lastly, the Orioles are 23rd or worse in OPS, OBP, wOBA, and wRC+ so Taillon could be popular.
Mark Leiter Jr. is a righty pitcher that has not been in the majors since 2018, he’s 31 years old, and he throws right-handed. The main Rockies (Kris Bryant, C.J. Cron, Connor Joe) are no more expensive than $4,000. I don’t even know how to explain that and even though we prefer these guys against lefties, the salaries are ridiculous. We can also just flip to the other side and attack Antonio Senzatela from the Rockies, with lefties being a main focus. He’s allowed a wOBA of .335 and an xFIP over 4.50 to the left side and we can use Ian Happ & Jonathan Villar while we don’t need to shy away from righties like Seiya Suzuki, Willson Contreras, and Frank Swhwindel. Both offenses are far too cheap and we’ll only need a punt or two to play them with the higher end pitching.
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 4/16 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
We have a full slate of baseball tonight and with that comes some great props to play on PrizePicks. Tonight on the mound we have some of my favorite pitchers to attack, and I plan on doing that with some Fantasy Hitter Scores!
Not already a PrizePicks member? Sign up today using the button below and you’ll get a bonus match of 100% up to $100. And to top it off, we’ll give you a free month of Win Daily Gold ($50 value).
Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.
This game really has a chance to get out of hand quickly. On the mound for the Orioles tonight will be gas can extraordinaire, Jordan Lyles. Lyles has become one of my favorite pitchers to attack in both DFS and on PrizePIcks.
He’s someone that gets hit hard while also giving up a healthy amount of fly balls. That’s a bad mix and one that we should always consider taking advantage of with batters. Lyles should get tagged early with runs in this one by the powerful Yankees lineup. I’m siding with at least 1 run in the first from them. I like there over here.
If you were to ask me for my favorite batter to hit a homer tonight, it would be Stanton. He just lines up so well Lyles. Lyles heavily relies on his slider to righties and it’s a pitch that Stanton has a long and powerful history against. Over the last several years, Stanton has had an outstanding .342 ISO against right-handed sliders. That screams power and with a bad pitcher in Lyles on the hill, I just love this spot. I’m going with the Over on this projection from PrizePicks.
Rizzo gets the same matchup tonight as teammate Stanton. Rizzo and Stanton will be in all of my DFS lineups tonight and also all of my PrizePicks contests. Lyles gives up a flyball rate of over 46% to lefties and a 44% hard-hit rate to them. This season Camden Yards is going to play a lot more friendly to lefties with the changes they made to the left-field wall. With this great matchup and Rizzo being a powerful lefty, I hope the people on Eutaw Street have a glove because there’s a good chance Rizzo hits one to them. I love the over here on this PrizePicks number.
Another spot for offense I really like tonight will be the Texas Rangers. With the Rangers, Garver has been of their most product batters to this point. Through the first week of the season, Garver has been on base 11 times, with 6 hits and 5 walks. He also gets the platoon advantage tonight against Reid Detmers.
Last season Garver had a .237 ISO against southpaws and a 51% hard-hit rate. He should be able to do some damage against a pitcher that has not had much luck in the Majors yet. I’m siding with the Over on this number.
This is a really tough matchup for Skubal tonight. Kansas City has been really tough to strike out this season. Only the Astros have been tougher. Skubal has a ton of talent, but he’s also someone that really makes some mistakes. This Royals lineup, while not one of the better lineups in the game, is still a lineup that can do some damage and takes full advantage of mistakes. We went with the under on Mize last night and I’m going right back to it with the Under on the K prop against the Royals.
Love Friday night slates as we normally get a healthy amount of games. With tonight, we really have some bad pitching that’s going to lead to some high fantasy scores and I tried my hardest to find guys that feel “safe.”.
Whether it’s for PrizePicks or DFS, make sure you’re reading all of our great MLB content.
Good luck and hope to see some green bars tonight!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
"*" indicates required fields
