We only have a handful of games tonight but wow the pitching is going to be tough outside of one or two options. It’s not a total wasteland but we’re not going to have a ton of choices and the pitching is sure to be chalky this evening. I will say at least the sites were smart enough to add in the 6:00 p.m. games or it would have been even worse. Let’s talk about who we know will be popular and others in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/30!
Nola has been fantastic this season with a 2.98 ERA, a 2.88 xFIP, and a K rate over 29% and is worth every penny, even though the matchup is never going to be easy against the Braves. The fact that Nola has been able to get this done with a swinging-strike rate of 11.3% (the lowest since 2019) makes it even more impressive. Atlanta is ninth against the curve and that is a small worry since Nola relies on that pitch to the tune of 42 strikeouts, a 39.4% whiff rate, and a .254 wOBA. It may not seem ideal that the wOBA against righties is at .294 but the xFIP is 2.57 and the fly-ball rate is under 33%. The HR/9 of 16.3% is likely a little undeserved and Nola has been performing at an ace level even with that baked in. With the Braves whiffing 25.5% of the time against righties, Nola has immense upside even with the threat of the Atlanta lineup.
I think by default, Gilbert will be about the most popular player on the slate and he draws the Oakland lineup that typically doesn’t give us much fear. They are 29th or 30th in ISO, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, and OBP with a K rate just under 24%, the seventh-highest mark in the majors. He’s got a gap between the xFIP of 3.63 and his ERA of 2.44 but he does balance that with a 24.9% K rate and 10.8% swinging-strike rate. Oakland is also 29th when facing a fastball and Gilbert is throwing that around 56% of the time with a .319 wOBA allowed and a 23.5% whiff rate. Of his 89 strikeouts, 48 have come from the fastball so that aspect of the matchup is a checkmark for Gilbert. I don’t love the .313 wOBA against righties because the A’s could send six of them to the plate tonight but the quality of the righties isn’t anything special, to be sure. The K rate also drops to 21.1% when facing that side so this isn’t a perfect spot, but there’s enough there to be happy about playing Gilbert on this slate.
I don’t always love pitchers against the same team twice in a row but Severino has a big advantage for the splits as the Houston offense is typically righty-heavy. Unfortunately, there is a pretty good chance that Yordan Alvarez could be out for this game after a collision yesterday but that would be an advantage for Severino. He’s smoking the right side of the plate for a .267 wOBA, a .194 average, a 36.8% K rate, and a 2.54 xFIP. Houston already only had three lefties to worry about in their normal lineup and without Alvarez, this lineup gets less intimidating. Severino is using the slider much more against the right side of the plate and that is the strikeout pitch. It has a 44.8% whiff rate, 36 strikeouts, and a .230 wOBA allowed. If Alvarez is out as I’m assuming, he could wind up being my favorite pitcher on the entire slate.
Honorable Mention
I don’t know if I’d do this in anything else but deeper GPP, but the Dodgers are coming out of Coors and offenses can struggle in that first game. Joe Musgrove has been very strong this season even though he got waxed. His xFIP is 3.16 and the K rate is 24.6% and the K rate actually bumps up against the left side. It’s not an ideal spot but there are factors that could lead Musgrove to have a pretty good game for fantasy.
After the top tier, the drop-off is steep and there are a lot of unstable plays. Graham Ashcraft has shown he’s either going for 20+ or under five so far in his short career. I have a tough time going for a pitcher with a 15.8% K rate and it took eight in the last games to even get him that high. The good aspect is he has a ground ball rate of 57.5% and that can play in any park, let alone Wrigley. He’s also been worse when facing a righty with a .339 wOBA and a 4.27 xFIP so there’s a lot to worry about here.
JT Brubaker also checks in as someone that could succeed or get hit hard as he has a .319 wOBA against lefties but the K rate bumps up to 23.7% and the Brewers can strike out at 23.7%. The xFIP of 4.49 is not the most comforting aspect of his profile but the slider and curve have legit swing-and-miss stuff over 32.5% each. The hard-hit rate s just 29.2% for Brubaker and he can avoid damage and occasionally pop up for a big start, worth taking a chance on tonight.
Ian Anderson is another player that could get a break as far as the lineup because Philly could throw a few lefties. They have a .291 wOBA, a 21% K rate, a 0.55 HR/9, and a 3.99 FIP but the xFIP is 4.55. The walk rate also skyrockets to 14.5% and even without Bryce Harper, it’s not hard to see this fall apart for Anderson even with a shot at a solid game.
Honorable Mention
Adrian Martinez made his big-league debut last time out and went 5.1 innings without allowing a run, but the K rate was only 14.3% and that’s been hit-and-miss in the minors. The xFIP was 4.50 but eventually, the Mariners are going to start serving suspensions. He’s under $6,000 and I can see taking some shots with an unknown as it sometimes takes a couple of starts for the majors to catch up.
Kyle Hendrick could wind up being a little chalky tonight, which I would get but would be terrifying. His K rate is under 18%, the FIP is 4.87, and the xFIP is 4.62. He has controlled the righties to a higher degree with a 0.74 HR/9, a 3.47 FIP, and a .281 wOBA so there is a chance I’d be a bit more interested, but the conditions and lineup would have to be perfect.
Yankees
Pirates
Blue Jays
Cubs/Reds Game Stack
Rays
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/30 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of the Stack City, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
We have a nice-sized 7-game slate of MLB DFS to play with tonight. On the hill tonight will be some options that will provide us some real upside with our bats.
Always make sure to read Adam’s Starting Rotation when setting your lineup. It’s hands down the best pitching article in the MLB DFS business.
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!
My hope here is that after scoring just 4 runs through the first 2 games of this series that maybe, just maybe their ownership will be suppressed a bit. Of the three matchups that they will have had in this series, tonight is probably the best one. Both Kuhl and Freeland haven’t pitched all that poorly this season, especially at home in Coors. German Marquez on the other hand has really struggled this season in Coors. Pitching in Coors this season, hitters have a .587 slugging % vs just .358 on the road.
If we look at what he did last season, those numbers are just about reversed. He was a stud at home, but not anymore and that’s something we’ll want to take advantage of. In his last 3 starts at home, he’s given up 4 ER to the Padres, 7 to the Marlins, and 5 against the Mets. If we dig more into splits, we’re going to want to favor the righties here. At home, Marquez is giving up a .670 slugging % to righties, while just a meager .500 to lefties.
We’ll start off this Dodgers stack with the man at the top, Trea Turner. Outside of his 0 for 4 Monday night, Turner has been hot at the plate. Over his last 6 games, he has hits in 5 of them with 2 multi-hit games. He’s also homered a couple of times over that stretch, including one last night. He’s always a threat to put up a full stat line thanks to his combo of power and speed. He’s pricey, but he’s in a great spot to smash tonight.
Next up is Will Smith. Smith is also coming into this one playing very well. Over his last 28 AB, Smith has 9 hits and most importantly, 4 barrels. He’s been hitting the ball very hard and in the air, with a nearly 54% flyball rate over the past week. That combo is what I’m looking for here and there’s a strong chance he can take Marquez deep tonight.
Other guys I like here will be Freddie Freeman, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, and Trayce Thompson.
This is more of a testament to the Twins’ offense right now than it is on Cal Quantrill. The Twins’ offense is really clicking right now. No team has scored more runs over the past week than the Twins. While Quantrill hasn’t been awful, he is someone that gives up a ton of contact. Of all the starters on the main slate, only Ranger Suarez has given up a higher contact rate over the past 30 days than Quantrill.
Quantrill is also giving up a healthy amount of flyballs, as he has a nearly 38% flyball rate over the past month. Between giving up a lot of contact and a decent amount of flyballs, he’s been very susceptible to the home run ball. He’s now gone 4 consecutive starts with giving up at least 1 homer.
I’m starting off my Twins stack tonight with Carlos Correa. He’s absolutely locked in right now at the plate. Even though he took an 0 for in the nightcap of yesterday’s twin bill, he still walked 3 times. Since June 21, Correa has had 4 homers and 6 RBI. He’s been the leading charge of this Twins offense and he’s still under $5k on DK. He’s got a great shot at continuing to roll tonight vs. Quantrill.
I also really do like Byron Buxton here. With Buxton, you always have to be prepared for a game like Monday where he K’d 3 times in 4 AB and walked away with a goose egg. The reward with Buxton is much like last night’s game where he went 2 for 5 with a homer, scored 2 runs, and got you almost 20 DK points. Buxton has been extremely solid over the last 30 days vs. righties, with a .407 ISO and a .444 wOBA. Again, he can get you nothing tonight at a high price, but it’s a great spot for him.
Other bats I like here are going to be Luis Arraez who just continues to hit in any and all matchups, Jorge Polanco, and Max Kepler.
I really wish the Guardians were hitting the ball better right now, but I still like them in this matchup. Dylan Bundy, although he can pitch well from time to time, is a pitcher that we should almost always consider stacking against. More often than not, he gets hit extremely hard. Over the last month, Bundy has given up 10 barrels over the course of 26 innings of work.
Over those 26 innings, he’s also given up 5 homers. On the year he has a handful of games where he’s given up at least 4 ER. Tonight’s one of those nights where he can give up a ton of runs. With the Guardians on the cold side, we can also get them at suppressed ownership. With Bundy, I’m not going to be overly worried about splits as he’s been pretty neutral against both sides. They each have 5 homers against him and both have slugging %’s over .450.
I’ll start off my Guardians stack with their hottest hitter right now, Amed Rosario. Rosario has hits in 8 of his last 9 games, including hits in both ends of yesterday’s double header. The ex-Mets shortstop is off to a great start this season and is on pace to set career highs in runs scored. He’s hitting close to the top of this lineup and should produce for us tonight.
Next up will be another ex-Met in Andres Gimenez. Gimenez gets the platoon advantage tonight and has been very solid against righties over the past month. His wOBA over the past 30 days is .449 vs. righties and he’s even shown some pop with a .241 ISO against them. Although he went hitless yesterday in 7 AB across the 2 games, prior to that he had hit safely in 12 of his previous 13 games. Look for him to get back on track tonight in a great matchup.
Other bats I’ll look to include here will be Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes, and Josh Naylor.
Other stacks I like tonight will be the Braves vs. Ranger Suarez, Angels vs. Michael Kopech, and Blue Jays vs. Nick Pivetta.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
We have the mother-load of games tonight with all 30 teams in action, so it’s obviously a big slate. There are a ton of directions these kinds of slates can go but pitching remains the bedrock of anything. We definitely have some aces up top and some other players along the way in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/28!
The Tigers have come to life in the last 14 days when facing a lefty pitcher, ranking in the top 12 in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ but the K rate is right under 24% and on the season, Detroit is in the bottom 10. Rodon has gotten back on the horse with 30+ DK points in each of the past three starts and he’s racked up 26 strikeouts, one earned run, and 21 IP. Two of those starts have come against the Dodgers and Braves, making them even more impressive. His FIP is 2.34 and the xFIP is 3.10 to go along with a 31.3% K rate and a 14.2% swinging-strike rate. The fastball has a 4.6% whiff rate and 58 strikeouts to go with 39 from the slider while Detroit is bottom-four against both pitch types. Rodon has also held both sides of the plate under a .270 wOBA, a 2.45 FIP, and a K rate over 30%. He makes a ton of sense up top tonight.
The perception is the matchup against the Tigers is going to be easier for Rodon, but Wheeler sets up quite well for this spot against Atlanta. Granted, there is more talent in comparison to Detroit but Wheeler is better when facing a righty even with a .294 wOBA because he has a K rate of 29.8%, he’s allowed no home runs with a 2.49 xFIP and 1.46 FIP combo, and the .389 BABIP is not going to stick around forever. Atlanta is in the top 10 in ISO but they’ve fallen outside of the top 10 in many others and they strike out 25.4% of the time, third-most in baseball when facing a righty pitcher. Wheeler took a minute to get going this year but he’s now got the FIP down to 2.27, a 2.93 xFIP, and a 12.2% swinging-strike rate. That would narrowly edge out 2021 for his best mark and I’m interested to see how the field approaches these two. They may not be as far apart as the perception might be.
He has come to life with a vengeance in the past four starts with 40 total strikeouts, four walks, and a total of 10 earned runs across 25 innings and the curveball has been cooking. It’s up to a 39.9% whiff rate and 39 strikeouts to lead the arsenal and it has been in the positives in FanGraphs rating In all four starts. Philly is second against the curve this year but they’re without Bryce Harper after a broken thumb and that’s a big boost for any pitcher facing them. The wOBA in June has dipped down to .271, the K rate is an (unsustainable) 40%, and the xFIP is down to 1.59. Even with Harper this year, Philly is 17th in wRC+, wOBA, 11th in ISO, and 15th in OPS so it’s far from dominant. Morton didn’t suddenly get THIS good but his salary is reasonable and I’m still interested.
Honorable Mention
We saw Zac Gallen go off in the last start against the Padres and it is a reminder of what he can do. His metrics are still kind of average for an ace with a 3.73 xFIP and the K rate is under 25% and he does at least generate a ground ball rate just a hair under 48%. I wouldn’t argue with you at all if you played him, but he wouldn’t be my first choice and in June he still has a 4.35 ERA, a .351 wOBA, and a 1.74 HR/9.
We all know in New York against the Yankees can be a difficult matchup and I would say I’m not putting much weight into the 5.21 road ERA since that sample is only 19 innings and the xFIP is better than at home at 2.92. Montas also has a 30.5% K rate, a 3.4% walk rate, a 2.08 FIP, and a 2.46 xFIP when he’s facing a righty and that’s what I’m after against the Yanks. His splitter gets a lot of attention and it should but the slider is a weapon when facing the right side even with just nine strikeouts. It still has a 41.7% whiff rate which is the best of the arsenal and the splitter is next at 29.7%. Montas has actually thrown the slider and sinker more against righties than the splitter and it has worked all year. We all know the risk but the reward could be well worth it.
I can’t say he’s been anything special this season with a 3.46 xFIP, 49.6% ground ball rate, and a 22.9% K rate but those certainly aren’t bad numbers either. The barrel rate for Castillo is still just 5.6% so he’s not being squared up and the biggest change for him has been the swinging-strike rate dropping to 10.5% after never being lower than 12.6% at any point in his career. His sinker and changeup are both down in whiff rate this year and they make up almost 55% of the arsenal, so that tends to explain it. The Cubs are just 21st when they see a changeup so that’s a bump to Castillo and he’s been better against righties. They only have a .242 wOBA, a 2.63 FIP, and a 0.37 HR/9 with a higher K rate of 23.7%. The Cubs could throw out six of them and we’ll see if the weather cooperates, but it’s not a terrible matchup since they whiff 22.8%, 12th most against righty pitching.
This is another risk/reward spot because Bay isn’t the cleanest when facing lefty hitters. Throughout his career (only 41 hitters), the wOBA is .279 but the BABIP is only .182 and the FIP is 4.84 to go along with the 4.48 xFIP. Since Milwaukee still strikes out the seventh-most against righties at 23.7%, there is plenty of upside at the price. His slider and curve both have whiff rates over 40% this season and he’ll need the slider to be strong since the Brewers are fifth against it. Baz has only made three starts so far this season but the xFIP is 3.78 and the K rate is 28.3%, an excellent number. The 12.4% swinging-strike rate is solid as well and this could be the first game he gets over the 80-pitch threshold. Now that he has dipped under $8,000, he’s very appealing for the ceiling he could bring.
Honorable Mention
I don’t love attacking the Mets but Framber Valdez is well in play with a 3.20 xFIP, 21.1% K rate, and a 67.6% ground ball rate. He has hit at least six strikeouts in four of his last five starts but this salary is kind of expensive for a ceiling of likely around 20 DK points. The Mets aren’t the best team ever against lefties but the K rate is under 20.5% as a team.
Johnny Cueto is sort of on the fringe for me since we know the Angels strike out at the highest rate in the league, but I can’t help but think Cueto can’t keep this up. His metrics aren’t bad with a 3.63 FIP and a K rate just under 21% to go along with a 42.1% ground ball rate, but there isn’t anything special here either. I think you probably get a solid 13-17 DK and move on, and a player like Baz can hit over 20 with much more strikeout upside in my eyes.
This was from yesterday, but Sears is actually pitching tonight for the Yanks – Sears is certainly interesting as he grabs the Oakland matchup and went 84 pitches in the last start. They are in the bottom 10 in every offensive category and whiff 23% of the time, while Sears is a lefty with just seven innings in the majors. He does have a 4.72 xFIP with his 0.00 ERA but the salary is certainly cheap enough and the K rate in the minors has been over 31.5% since the start of last year. There’s not much to go on but the salary is great and Oakland is not, so he makes plenty of sense. Just like we thought for Monday, the builds he opens up are worth the risk and I’m always willing to chase a big K rate in the minors at this salary.
This guy has been a bear to figure out, with two starts in the negatives and two over 26 points in the last four. The funny part is one of the good ones came against Atlanta and one of the bad ones came when facing the Orioles, so it’s tough to say he’s matchup dependent. The xFIP is over 4.00 when facing either side of the plate and we’d want more lefties to get the 25.7% K rate in play. The right side is under 20% with a 1.54 HR/9 and a 4.84 FIP, which are a little worrisome. That could be an issue depending on the Reds lineup but the ground ball rate is very nice at 45.5% and the hard-hit rate is under 40%. He checks boxes that could get the job done, but I want to see the lineup and weather before deciding.
Honorable Mention
This goes along the same lines as yesterday, but Dean Kremer could turn interesting. On the whole, across his 21 IP, the 16.3% K rate and 4.75 xFIP aren’t what we’re looking for. However, Seattle had suspensions handed down today so that could have an effect here. They plan to appeal (not sure how Jesse Winker appeals helping start it and flipping the double bird, but I digress) so we need to see the lineup.
Clayton Kershaw – He was great in the last start but again, he was only at 80 pitches. The game was out of hand at that juncture but the best case is likely still 90 and that’s a tough sell in Coors for five digits. We have other pitchers with higher ceilings in my view.
Robbie Ray – Of all the pitchers on this list, he almost certainly has the highest upside but across the past 30 days, Baltimore is in the top three in OBP, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ with a K rate under 24%. Ray has given up plenty of runs and does have a 4.18 FIP with a 3.83 xFIP, so the bombs could fly.
Sean Manaea – He gets this Arizona offense for the second straight start and while they haven’t been good against lefties, Manaea is not an ace in my eyes. He’s a good pitcher but he also has a 3.92 xFIP and the K rate is 25.5% with a fly-ball rate over 42%. I think he makes a fine start but not one we need at the salary.
Dodgers
Blue Jays
Cardinals
Twins
Rangers
Pirates
Red Sox
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/28 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Welcome to the Monday edition of the Stack City, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
It’s Monday and we have a nice-sized 9-game slate of MLB baseball. The only downfall of this slate is that we have a Coors game again and that always adds a wrench into the strategy of the slate.
Always make sure to read Adam’s Starting Rotation when setting your lineup. It’s hands down the best pitching article in the MLB DFS business.
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!
While I normally tend to shy away from making a team playing in Coors a top stack for my MLB DFS stack article, it’s really tough tonight to ignore the spot that the Dodgers are in vs. Chad Kuhl. While Kuhl hasn’t been awful this season, he still has an xFIP for the year right at his career average in the mid-4 range. Over the past 30 days, that xFIP has actually climbed a bit to the upper 4’s.
The Rockies have also lost 7 of Kuhl’s last 8 starts and after today, it should be 8 of his last 9. With Kuhl, attacking him with lefties is normally a good strategy. He’s been giving up more power to them as lefties have a slugging % 50 points higher than righties and are also getting on base at a higher clip with an OBP about 30 points higher.
I’ll start this Dodgers stack with Freddie Freeman. Freeman has an extremely hot bat right now as he currently has a 10-game hitting streak. He’s coming off a solid Sunday night of baseball that saw him go 2 for 5 with a walk, double, and an RBI. Freeman also matches up extremely well with Kuhl. Kuhl is a sinker ball pitcher, throwing it around 40% of the time to hitters this season. On the year, Freeman has a .558 slugging % vs. sinkers and a .421 wOBA. He should absolutely smash tonight and increase his hitting streak to 11 games.
Next up will be Cody Bellinger. This is an extremely solid spot for Bellinger tonight and at just $4.4k on DK tonight, we’re getting a hitter at a reasonable price in Coors that could perform really well for us. Against sinkers this season, Bellinger has a .552 slugging % and a .439 wOBA. He’s also coming into this game with hits in 3 of his last 4 games, 2 of which were multi-hit games.
Other Dodgers I really like tonight will be Will Smith (.703 slugging % vs. Sinkers this season), Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, and Gavin Lux.
Something is off with Lucas Giolito this season, and until he’s back to form he’s really someone that we want to attack. Over his last 5 outings, he’s been getting absolutely shelled. He’s allowed 13 barrels and 9 homers in those 5 starts. Hitters have a hard-hit rate pushing 40% against in those 5 and a 45% flyball rate. He’s just off and with the Angels playing somewhat better baseball of late, they can definitely get to him tonight.
This season, Giolito has been as reverse-splits as you can be. Righties have a massive .702 slugging % vs. him compared to just .278 for lefties. Their wOBA is the same story. Righties have a .465 vs. just .255 for lefties. Most importantly, righties also have an OBP of .409 vs. him this year. There are a couple of righties in this lineup that we’ll really want to focus on.
You thought I was going to say Mike Trout first didn’t you? Nope, my most important piece here will be Taylor Ward. Ward has had basically 3 chunks to this season. A solid chunk, an awful chunk, and he’s back to a new solid chunk of the season. With another 2 hits yesterday, he now has a 7-game hitting streak. Over those 7 games, he’s had 3 multi-hit games and very well could have another one tonight. He’s back to being the on-base machine he was early in the year and against a pitcher that has struggled against righties year, we’ll want to take advantage of that.
Next up will be Mike Trout. The DK price point of $6.3k tonight is a little prohibitive and high for my liking, but what a spot for him tonight. He’s coming off a solid series against Seattle that saw him get on base 8 times in 13 plate appearances. He’s historically done well against Gio as he has a .432 wOBA against him with a homer. We’ll need a lot from him to pay off his salary today, but knowing that Gio has given up a .702 slugging % vs. righties this season, I think there’s a solid chance for a Trout homer tonight!
Other guys I like here will be Shohei Ohtani, Lucas Rengifo, and Max Stassi.
Over his last 4 appearances since May 10, Wilson has been nothing short of awful. In his 3 starts during that stretch, he’s allowed 20 ER in just 9 innings of work. Just not good! I will say though that the 3 starts were against really solid teams in the Cardinals and Dodgers. That said, Wilson just isn’t very good and he’s someone that we should feel comfortable attacking with hitters.
While he’s been pretty bad to both sides of the plate this year, he’s been especially bad against lefties. Lefties have a slugging % of .590 on the year and a wOBA of .446. Their OPS vs. him is over 1.000 and that indicates he’s letting a healthy amount of runners on to them and they are also hitting for power. Let’s attack!
I’m starting off my Nationals stack with Josh Bell. Bell is quietly having a really good year. His average is up to .310 and has 11 homers and 46 RBI. When you think of the Nationals’ offense, you typically think of Juan Soto. But it’s actually been Bell that has been carrying this offense in 2022 at a fraction of the cost in MLB DFS. Bell is coming into this game with 2 3-hit games in his last 3 games. Bell should see a healthy dose of changeups today as it’s one of Wilson’s favorite pitches to throw to lefties. On the year, Bell has a .541 slugging % and a .411 wOBA vs. changeups.
Next up will be Juan Soto. Soto had a pretty impressive feat on Sunday, walking 4 times. To me, that indicates that he’s seeing the ball extremely well right now. His series against text was decent, as he had a pair of doubles and scored 4 runs. While at his price point you want more, with this matchup tonight we’ll see the ‘more’. Soto has home run upside in every at-bat, and with this a matchup vs. a struggling pitcher, he should put one into the seats tonight.
Other Nationals I like tonight are Cesar and Yadiel Hernandez, and Nelson Cruz.
Other stacks that have my interest tonight will be Pittsburgh vs. Erick Fedde, Minnesota vs. Triston McKenzie, and the Yankees vs. Paul Blackburn. Kris Bubic has been a favorite of mine to stack against in his career. Since coming back up from the minors, he’s actually been pitching well. His K’s are up and the flyballs are down. I’m not saying to use him as a pitcher, I’m just going to be more cautious stacking against him right now.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Today’s slate is a little different than the recent ones we’ve had since there is a clear-cut, “no-doubt” ace pitcher that I will be borderline all-in for playing. That doesn’t mean we can’t find other players we like but I fully expect the slate to be dominated by one player. Let’s find out who that is and who else we like in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/26!
Shane O’Mac is probably happy to not see the Yankees in this start after two straight starts against them when he racked up 12 innings, two earned runs, and 15 strikeouts. The last two lefties that faced this Bucco offense have totaled over 15 strikeouts and with due respect to Justin Steele and Jeffrey Springs, Shane O’Mac is about six levels above them. We basically know the arsenal at this point and even the fastball has a whiff rate just under 29% and the wOBA is under .350. That should terrify everyone facing him and he’s leading the league in strikeouts at 113 which has equated to a 35.3% K rate. Both sides of the plate have a K rate over 33%, an xFIP under 2.15, and a WHIP under 0.95. The Pirates are striking out 25% against lefties this year and are in the bottom four in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. Spots just don’t get better than this for Shane O’Mac and he’s going to be wildly chalky, which is fine by me. As the song goes, here comes the money!
He probably doesn’t get the gift of a strike zone that he got in the last start, but he still should not be under $10,000 here. Lance Lynn smoked a version of this lineup until Tony LaRussa couldn’t be bothered to manage his group (can we fire this chucklehead already) and Cease has shown elite strikeout upside all year. His K rate isn’t far behind Shane O’Mac’s at 34.3% and he’s only five strikeouts behind him in total at 108. Now he’s been more flighty with a walk rate of 11.4% but even still, the xFIP is 2.91 and the FIP is 2.58. Baltimore has crept into the top 10 in K rate when facing a righty at 23.1% and perhaps the biggest knock is they are third against the slider. That’s a main weapon for Cease at 36.9% usage with a 45.1% whiff rate and a .168 wOBA, so it’s not a deal-breaker. The Orioles tend to be righty-heavy as well and nothing goes me pause there with a .266 wOBA, 2.72 xFIP, and a K rate that rises to a 36.7% mark. Fitting these two will be one of my primary goals on this slate as I could get a potential 20 strikeouts and over 50 DK points.
Honorable Mention
I am very focused on the pair we’ve talked about, but Joe Ryan could be a stealthy strong play if he gets a lineup like Colorado played last night. They sent seven righties out there and Ryan sees significant splits as he’s got that side of the plate to a 3.34 xFIP, 3.02 FIP, 30.5% K rate, and a .266 wOBA. Factor in the Rockies ranking 26th or lower in OPS, wOBA, wRC+, ISO, and OBP when facing a righty on the road and he has some strong potential. I do think Cease would have to have a poor game for Ryan to outscore him, but that could happen.
Oakland can be peskier than they get credit for on some days but they also aren’t a good offense by any real stretch. After all, they are 29th or 30th in our offensive categories and Singer has been pretty unlucky so far if the 3.30 xFIP is any indication of what the 4.34 ERA should look like. The K rate s over 23.3% and Singer leans on his slider to generate any whiffs with a 41.5% mark and 27 strikeouts. Since teams make a good amount of contact, it’s a good thing his ground ball rate is 50.4% and the hard-hit rate is under 28%. We can hope Oakland sends out the same lineup as yesterday with seven righties because Singer is much better against them with a .277 wOBA, a 2.59 xFIP, and a 1.06 FIP. The mid-range is questionable today which makes me think McClanahan and Cease will be the chalk pair but we’ll wait and see.
It’s Roansy Day and he’s had some tougher spots for what his splits have been lately, a trend that should reverse today. The Rays are almost always lefty-heavy and they strike out a ton (25.1%) which is exactly what Contreras would need for a big game. His fastball/slider combo has 35 of 38 strikeouts and where he’s excelled so far is keeping lefties in check. The wOBA is .285, the WHIP is 1.07 and the HR/9 is just 0.96. When he’s facing a righty, the K rate goes up to 26.5% and the xFIP comes down under 3.90 and the .319 BABIP isn’t helping. With a 12.5% swinging-strike rate and a lineup that can swing and miss with the best of them, I’m very interested.
Honorable Mention
I personally can’t go of Jose Berrios today. He absolutely has an upside and he’s been pitching much better with a 4.15 ERA, .303 wOBA, a 26.7% K rate, and a 3.15 xFIP in June. The Brewers are a top 10 strikeout team when facing a righty and they are 28th when facing a curveball, a crucial pitch to the success for Berrios. He’s just so untrustworthy and the Brewers will have some lefties, the worse side of the splits for him. Perhaps the lineup turns out better than we think and I’ll upgrade him but he freaks me out.
Just typing his name should make you understand that this can go south in a real hurry but the White Sox have scored a combined three runs in three games against Baltimore. The issues when facing right-handers have reared their head in a big way so far and it’s a stark reminder that 22nd or lower in OPS, OBP, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ to this point. They should be very righty-heavy today and that also benefits Lyles with a 0.82 HR/9, 19.1% K rate, and a 3.51 FIP when facing a righty. The slider is a key component in why he’s better against righties and the White Sox are 27th when facing that pitch. Lyles has 18 strikeouts with it and a 32.7% whiff rate so, for his salary, he could exceed 15 DK points and might be the only punt option on the board.
Nestor Cortes – I’m not sure I’m willing to test the Houston lineup with Cortes as he’s racked up a 3.86 ERA, .343 wOBA, a 19.5% K rate, and a 5.08 xFIP through 21 innings in June. Cortes isn’t that bad but he’s likely not as good as at the start of the season as well.
Blue Jays
Cardinals/Cubs Stack
Rangers
Royals
Red Sox
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