MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/26
Today’s slate is a little different than the recent ones we’ve had since there is a clear-cut, “no-doubt” ace pitcher that I will be borderline all-in for playing. That doesn’t mean we can’t find other players we like but I fully expect the slate to be dominated by one player. Let’s find out who that is and who else we like in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/26!
Shane O’Mac is probably happy to not see the Yankees in this start after two straight starts against them when he racked up 12 innings, two earned runs, and 15 strikeouts. The last two lefties that faced this Bucco offense have totaled over 15 strikeouts and with due respect to Justin Steele and Jeffrey Springs, Shane O’Mac is about six levels above them. We basically know the arsenal at this point and even the fastball has a whiff rate just under 29% and the wOBA is under .350. That should terrify everyone facing him and he’s leading the league in strikeouts at 113 which has equated to a 35.3% K rate. Both sides of the plate have a K rate over 33%, an xFIP under 2.15, and a WHIP under 0.95. The Pirates are striking out 25% against lefties this year and are in the bottom four in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. Spots just don’t get better than this for Shane O’Mac and he’s going to be wildly chalky, which is fine by me. As the song goes, here comes the money!
He probably doesn’t get the gift of a strike zone that he got in the last start, but he still should not be under $10,000 here. Lance Lynn smoked a version of this lineup until Tony LaRussa couldn’t be bothered to manage his group (can we fire this chucklehead already) and Cease has shown elite strikeout upside all year. His K rate isn’t far behind Shane O’Mac’s at 34.3% and he’s only five strikeouts behind him in total at 108. Now he’s been more flighty with a walk rate of 11.4% but even still, the xFIP is 2.91 and the FIP is 2.58. Baltimore has crept into the top 10 in K rate when facing a righty at 23.1% and perhaps the biggest knock is they are third against the slider. That’s a main weapon for Cease at 36.9% usage with a 45.1% whiff rate and a .168 wOBA, so it’s not a deal-breaker. The Orioles tend to be righty-heavy as well and nothing goes me pause there with a .266 wOBA, 2.72 xFIP, and a K rate that rises to a 36.7% mark. Fitting these two will be one of my primary goals on this slate as I could get a potential 20 strikeouts and over 50 DK points.
I am very focused on the pair we’ve talked about, but Joe Ryan could be a stealthy strong play if he gets a lineup like Colorado played last night. They sent seven righties out there and Ryan sees significant splits as he’s got that side of the plate to a 3.34 xFIP, 3.02 FIP, 30.5% K rate, and a .266 wOBA. Factor in the Rockies ranking 26th or lower in OPS, wOBA, wRC+, ISO, and OBP when facing a righty on the road and he has some strong potential. I do think Cease would have to have a poor game for Ryan to outscore him, but that could happen.
Oakland can be peskier than they get credit for on some days but they also aren’t a good offense by any real stretch. After all, they are 29th or 30th in our offensive categories and Singer has been pretty unlucky so far if the 3.30 xFIP is any indication of what the 4.34 ERA should look like. The K rate s over 23.3% and Singer leans on his slider to generate any whiffs with a 41.5% mark and 27 strikeouts. Since teams make a good amount of contact, it’s a good thing his ground ball rate is 50.4% and the hard-hit rate is under 28%. We can hope Oakland sends out the same lineup as yesterday with seven righties because Singer is much better against them with a .277 wOBA, a 2.59 xFIP, and a 1.06 FIP. The mid-range is questionable today which makes me think McClanahan and Cease will be the chalk pair but we’ll wait and see.
It’s Roansy Day and he’s had some tougher spots for what his splits have been lately, a trend that should reverse today. The Rays are almost always lefty-heavy and they strike out a ton (25.1%) which is exactly what Contreras would need for a big game. His fastball/slider combo has 35 of 38 strikeouts and where he’s excelled so far is keeping lefties in check. The wOBA is .285, the WHIP is 1.07 and the HR/9 is just 0.96. When he’s facing a righty, the K rate goes up to 26.5% and the xFIP comes down under 3.90 and the .319 BABIP isn’t helping. With a 12.5% swinging-strike rate and a lineup that can swing and miss with the best of them, I’m very interested.
I personally can’t go of Jose Berrios today. He absolutely has an upside and he’s been pitching much better with a 4.15 ERA, .303 wOBA, a 26.7% K rate, and a 3.15 xFIP in June. The Brewers are a top 10 strikeout team when facing a righty and they are 28th when facing a curveball, a crucial pitch to the success for Berrios. He’s just so untrustworthy and the Brewers will have some lefties, the worse side of the splits for him. Perhaps the lineup turns out better than we think and I’ll upgrade him but he freaks me out.
Just typing his name should make you understand that this can go south in a real hurry but the White Sox have scored a combined three runs in three games against Baltimore. The issues when facing right-handers have reared their head in a big way so far and it’s a stark reminder that 22nd or lower in OPS, OBP, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ to this point. They should be very righty-heavy today and that also benefits Lyles with a 0.82 HR/9, 19.1% K rate, and a 3.51 FIP when facing a righty. The slider is a key component in why he’s better against righties and the White Sox are 27th when facing that pitch. Lyles has 18 strikeouts with it and a 32.7% whiff rate so, for his salary, he could exceed 15 DK points and might be the only punt option on the board.
Missed The Cut
Nestor Cortes – I’m not sure I’m willing to test the Houston lineup with Cortes as he’s racked up a 3.86 ERA, .343 wOBA, a 19.5% K rate, and a 5.08 xFIP through 21 innings in June. Cortes isn’t that bad but he’s likely not as good as at the start of the season as well.
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