It’s a bit of an odd Saturday slate because it’s an evening slate, which is not normal. There are 10 games tonight so it’s a decent-sized slate on top of things and we once again have some solid pitching options. Let’s get right to business and figure out who we like in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/23 to find green screens!
I’m sure he’s going to be pretty popular and he ended the first half on a high note with a massive 37 DK points and 12 strikeouts across seven innings. Baltimore is just 20th in wOBA, 21st in wRC+, 20th in OPS, and they strike out 22.8% of the time. I do have to grant they are 11th in ISO so that’s always a way to get to Cole because his HR/9 of 1.35 is the second-highest since 2017. His K rate is still 32.9% so you take the power potential with a grain of salt and the swinging-strike rate is still 14.4%. The four-seam and the slider do all of the heavy lifting here with 127 of 147 strikeouts on the season and his four-seam has 83 with just a .277 wOBA allowed. With Baltimore ranking 27th against the fastball, that’s a big boost for Cole and even with him being a little worse on the road, it’s hard to turn away from him tonight with a mediocre (at best) offense on the other side of things.
Seeing as how the Rockies are still not in Coors Field, I’m interested here. He was fairly inefficient in the last start with five walks but the Brewers let Woodruff throw a massive 112 pitches in the last game and he’s had plenty of rest. Probably the biggest concern here is the (likely) lack of lefties in the Rockies lineup. Despite a 30.2% K rate overall, it drops to 20.3% when he’s facing a righty hitter and the FIP/xFIP jumps to over 4.60. Overall, Woodruff is also allowing a lot of fly-balls at over 44% against both sides and the right side doesn’t see his changeup very much. Of the 209 he’s thrown this year, only 42 have come against the right side of the plate and his slider is more in play against the right side but he’s only used it 11.8% of the time. If the Rockies weren’t so bad on the road when facing a righty I might not be interested but I’m curious to see what happens as far as the field goes. Last year, Woodruff had a 28.7% K rate against the right side so I don’t think he’s not playable, but it’s been an oddball season for him so far.
The salary isn’t super comfortable and there might be up to give lefties against Bassitt, always a concern. His overall numbers are very strong at a 3.56 xFIP, a 46.6% ground ball rate, and a WHIP of 1.14 but we do need to pay attention to his splits as well. He’s been better at home with a 3.12 ERA, a .273 wOBA, and a 3.41 xFIP although the K rate is dead identical at 24.9% across the board. I mean home or away, righty or lefty, it is 24.9% which is wild to see. Bassitt is worse when he’s facing a lefty with a .351 wOBA but that is mostly driven by him getting hammered on the road with a .427 wOBA. It does freak me out a little bit to see a 5.14 FIP against the left side of the plate but he’s brought the K rate up and the Padres offense isn’t exactly one to fear.
I’m a little torn here because Wright has certainly reverted as the season has gone along and his K rate has been very average since the start of May, never clearing 22% in any month. That’s not exactly the most appealing number at this salary but it’s also the Angels without Mike Trout on the other side. Wright still has both sides of the plate under a .300 wOBA, and the right side is under a .300 xFIP. The lefties are higher and the Angels have lefties, but they don’t have good lefties outside of a couple of hitters. His curveball is the only pitch in the arsenal that s over a 30% whiff rate and it is the main pitch at 32.9%, but I can’t help but question the upside. I think I’d rather play him over Woodruff, but we’ll see how the day develops there as well.
I am not a fan of this range at all really. Blake Snell always seems to be popular and he can score 25 DK or more in any game but he can also score under 10 at any point and he has a 5.22 ERA (3.97 xFIP in fairness), a 29.5% K rate, and a massive 13.8% walk rate. With the Mets being top 10 in K rate when facing lefties at just 20.5%, it doesn’t read as a spot for a good outcome for Snell. I’m not willing to go after Patrick Sandoval against the Braves or Alex Wood against the Dodgers so that drops us down to Brady Singer. I don’t think the Rays’ offense is special, but Singer is sporting a .365 wOBA, a 1.85 H/9, and a 5.14 FIP when facing a lefty hitter. Tampa had six lefties n the lineup last night and I can’t get excited for him either. I don’t think this is the range we should be focusing on tonight and we can look to either go double aces or use some punt options.
Note – Quintana was meant to start on Friday but nothing has changed with his matchup.
We don’t have to go very far to find the next man on the list because Quintana is capable of exploiting the Marlins leading the league in K rate against lefties at 27.9%. They are also dead last in OBP, wOBA, OPS, and wRC+ while Quintana has a K rate of 21% and a ground ball rate of 44.2%. He’s shown upside especially for this salary and both of his main pitches are under a .300 wOBA allowed with at least a 26% whiff rate. Those two pitches have been the four-seam and curve, both of which the Marlins are ranked 19th or worse. The right side of the plate has just an 18.8% K rate and if Quintana gets lucky enough to face a lefty, that’s even better with a 32.3% K rate and a 1.58 FIP. As it stands, this is the style of matchup that Quintana could do very well in and he allows you to fit in bigger bats.
He now has a first start under his belt and the lineup for the Pirates is simply not going to be good tonight. Bryan Reynolds is still not back yet and Dan Vogelbach was traded last night and those two are about the two best hitters for the Bucs. In the first start for Meyer, he was not shy about his slider as he threw it almost half the time with a 41.2% whiff rate. Even though he had an 8.44 ERA, his xFIP was 3.75 and the 11.4% swinging-strike rate was very solid. Meyer got left in the game a couple of hitters too long in that first start and he showed a lot of good signs for his future. Pittsburgh is 27th when facing the slider, they whiff over 25% of the time, and they rank 26th or worse in OPS, wOBA, OBP, and wRC+. This is the perfect landing spot for him to pay off this paltry salary.
Julio Urias – The Dodgers have started to loosen the reigns as far as pitch count goes, which is a positive. The matchup is not totally ideal since the Giants are seventh in wOBA, fourth in ISO, seventh in OPS, and 10th in OBP. His K rate is only 24.3% and I’m still not interested, just like yesterday.
German Marquez – I really thought about giving him a look outside of Coors but the xFIP and FIP are both over 4.30 and the K rate is down to 17.6%. Additionally, both sides of the plate are over a .300 wOBA so even though Milwaukee can be vulnerable, Marquez has been roundly awful this year.
White Sox
Guardians (LHH priority)
D-Backs
Braves
Rays
Rangers/A’s Game Stack
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/23 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Welcome to the Friday edition of the Stack City, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
Welcome back my friends, welcome back. Tonight we have a 13-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through, and one that is pitching heavy. There are however a few exploitable spots for offense.
Always make sure to read Adam’s Starting Rotation when setting your lineup. It’s hands down the best pitching article in the MLB DFS business.
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!
Cole Irvin is one of those pitchers that likes to rely on his defense heavily. His contact rate of 83.4% over the last month is one of the highest of any pitchers on the mound tonight and his K rate of 15.3% is close to the lowest. He just gives up a ton of contact and nearly 43% of it is considered hard. His 42.6% hard-hit rate is the highest of any pitcher tonight with more than 1 start. He’s been extremely lucky over the last month and at some point, your luck tends to run out.
Although his ERA over the last month is a very nice 3.34, his xFIP is 4.61. There will be some regression for him and it’s going to be at the hands of the Texas Rangers. The Rangers went into the All-Star break playing some of their best baseball of the season. They continued with that yesterday vs. the Marlins and in a plus matchup tonight, should do well again.
Core: My core with the Rangers today will be centered around Marcus Semien and Corey Seager. Both guys went into the All-Star break swinging hot bats. Semien continued with his hot ways yesterday with another 2 hits and 2 runs scored. Both guys have done really well against lefties over the last month with Semien having a wOBA of .482 and Seager having a .441.
Irvin is going to throw Seager a sinker close to 38% of the time. That’s a pitch that Seager has historically done really against, with a .497 wOBA vs. lefty sinkers. Semien will mostly see fastballs as Irvin throws them close to 47% of the time to righties. Against lefty fastballs, Semien has a .411 wOBA and a .293 ISO over the last few years. Just a great spot for both of these guys.
Secondary Pieces: My complimentary pieces here will be Adolis Garcia, Jonah Heim, and Nate Lowe. All three of these guys are reasonably priced tonight and are in spots to succeed. Both Heim and Lowe have been highly respectable vs. southpaws over the past month with ISO’s over .230 and wOBA’s over .360.
Value: Leody Tavares continues to be extremely cheap, regardless of how well he’s been playing. At just $2.5k on DK tonight, he’s still an absolute steal. His combination of power, speed, and ability to knock in runs makes him one of my favorite value plays on the night.
Although Jameson Taillon has been a little unlucky over the last month, I still don’t think he’s very good and this newly made Orioles lineup can absolutely get to him tonight. Over the last month, Taillon has struggled with both hard contact and the long ball. In his last 27 innings of work, Taillon has given up 8 homers and 11 barrels. His hard-hit rate against him during that stretch is nearly 41% and his flyball rate is sitting at nearly 46%.
With the temperature expected to be in the 90s at first pitch tonight in Baltimore, those hard-hit flyballs will have some extra giddy up. With Taillon, we have a slight lean towards the lefties. Of the 14 homers that he’s given up this season, 8 have been to lefties in 70 less AB. They have a .478 slugging % and a .330 wOBA. Both are slightly higher than what he’s giving up to righties.
Core: My Orioles core tonight will be centered around Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman, and Anthony Santander. Santander has shown more power this season batting as a lefty, as 11 of his 15 bombs have been as a lefty. While Mullins is having a down year compared to his last couple of years, he’s still hitting a very respectable .278 vs. righties this season and has a .333 wOBA. A leadoff extra-base hit tonight against Taillon is not out of the question. In his short career so far, Rutschman has absolutely destroyed righty fastballs. He’ll seem about 64% of the time tonight. He has a .688 ISO vs. them so far. Great spot for him tonight.
Secondary Pieces: While not a priority in this matchup, guys like Trey Mancini, Ryan Mountcastle, and Austin Hays have carried this offense this season. Taillon is only slightly better vs. righties and these guys can potentially flourish in this matchup. My favorite of this group tonight will be Trey Mancini. Over the last month, he has a .326 wOBA vs. righties and a 46% hard-hit rate. His days in an Orioles uniform are numbered and this will more than likely be his final homestand. I’m playing the matchup and narrative here.
Value: My value here will come with Ramon Urias and Rougned Odor. Both guys are sitting right around that $3k number on DK tonight. Urias has been a beast of late, with 11 hits in his last 30 AB and a 1.120 OPS. Against righties over the last month, he has a .463 wOBA and a .273 ISO. He is in a sneaky good spot tonight and will be in most of my lineups.
While I normally like to target the Rockies pitching at Coors, this is just too good of a spot to pass up tonight. Antonio Senzatela has not had a good year. His 4.95 ERA is the highest it’s been since 2019. His xERA of 5.92 indicates that things could actually be a little worse for him and with a matchup tonight vs. a solid Brewers lineup, things very well could get worse for him.
With this stack tonight, you need to go all in or not at all. On the year, Senzatela has only given up 5 homers. You can’t fully expect that this lineup will hit a random home run and you’ll get it right. You’ll more so want to chase the 1.80 WHIP that he has on the season, the highest it’s ever been in his career.
Core: With Senzatela, we’ll want to focus on guys from the right side. Righties have a .407 wOBA vs. him this season and a .565 slugging %. While lefties have also done well against him, righties have been his kryptonite. I’ll start my Brewers stack with guys like Willy Adames and Andrew McCutchen. Both guys are having solid seasons and have done well against righties. Adames has a .479 slugging % vs. them this season with 15 homers. McCutchen has a .365 wOBA vs. righties over the last month.
Secondary Pieces: My complimentary pieces here will be Rowdy Tellez, Christian Yelich, and Kolten Wong. While I want the righties, lefties will also be important here. Yelich has done well against righties over the last month, with a .376 wOBA. Tellez, although not as hot as he was early in the year, has a .329 ISO vs. righties over the last month. If I were to chase a random homer against Senzatela, he’d be my guy.
Other MLB DFS stacks I like tonight will be the Nationals vs. Zac Gallen, Yankees vs. Tyler Wells, Astros vs. Marco Gonzales, and Cubs vs. Kyle Gibson. And of course, maybe the Diamondbacks vs. Patrick Corbin.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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DraftKings has thrown us a bit of a curveball as they canvassed the entire early slate today with 11 games. Why they decided this Saturday was suddenly different than any others is far beyond me, but that’s not the first time we’ve questioned DK this year. Let’s get busy talking about who we like on this slate and one very interesting rookie in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/16!
I’m very hesitant to spend above the five-figure threshold on pitching for this slate outside of cash games. I feel like Justin Verlander is going to be popular but he’s over $11,000. The Texas lineup could play right into what Gilbert does best and that mainly is getting lefties out at a high rate. He has held them to a .232 wOBA, 0.55 HR/9, a 26.3% K rate, a WHIP under 1.00, and a FIP of 2.72. Since the day he hit the majors, I’ve wanted him to throw more breaking/secondary stuff because he’s still using the fastball 55% of the time and that’s part of the reason his swinging-strike rate is still under 11% on the season. His four-seam also allows a .340 wOBA while none of his slider/curve/change is over .263. In fairness, the four-seam has 55 of 100 strikeouts but with how much he throws that, it should. The Rangers are much sketchier against righty pitching as they rank 23rd in wRC+, 26th in wOBA, 21st in ISO, and they strike out over 23% of the time. Lastly, they are only 25th against the fastball so that’s a nice bump to Gilbert. If they throw out a bunch of lefties like normal, this is a really strong spot for Gilbert at an easier salary to live with.
I’m just as surprised as you are to see him here but five of his past six starts have produced at least 18.9 DK points and four of them have been over 25 DK. One aspect that is noticeable is he’s dropped his cutter usage in the past six and that’s been his worst pitch with a wOBA over .400. Instead, it’s been more four-seams and splitters and those pitches have 51 of 68 strikeouts and it’s not a coincidence he’s had nine, nine, 10, and seven whiffs in some of those starts. Walker has been better against righties with a .248 wOBA, an 18.4% K rate, and a 2.71 FIP but he’s also generating a ground ball rate over 50%. That’s big in Wrigley and he should face a bunch of righties, so I’m looking toward him as well today. Give me the savings with Gilbert and Walker over the pricier (albeit slightly more stable options).
Honorable Mention
As I mentioned earlier, I’ll really never tell you to not play Verlander even though his 2.00 ERA is almost a run and a half lower than the xFIP. The K rate isn’t even 25% this season so he can certainly dominate, but he needs such a big score at this salary that I think it’s more efficient to spend elsewhere.
I’ll admit I was wrong in his last start and he came on strong with 7.1 innings, five strikeouts, and only one run allowed. He’s really put together a great first half of the season with a 2.62 ERA, a ground ball rate just under 44%, and a 0.95 HR/9. Now, the xFIP is a little higher than I’d like at 3.81 and the K rate is under 20% but he just has a knack for getting enough strikeouts to pay it off and he can go deep into games. Mikolas is a virtual lock for 95 pitches, if not a few more and he’s better when facing a righty hitter. The wOBA is a touch higher at .271 but the K rate comes up to 21.1% and the xFIP is 3.66. He should face more righties than anything else and he mixes his pitches well with the slider leading but only at 27.3%. He’s always a strong option with about as much as a floor as a pitcher can have.
With a minimum stay on the IL, I think we have to look at Suarez to some extent between the salary and the fact that the Marlins have the highest K rate in the league against lefty pitching. His profile isn’t outstanding with a 4.04 xFIP and a 4.33 ERA but he does get a 55.1% ground ball rate and has an 18.6% K rate. That’s not a ton but that’s enough at $7,700 and he’s been a little unlucky when facing a righty. The BABIP is .320 but the K rate does come up and his sinker is the pitch he throws the most with a .290 wOBA. I’ll be interested to see what the field does with him.
Honorable Mention
I didn’t have Dean Kremer at $8,500 on the 2022 MLB bingo card this year, but he’s been solid so far through 37.2 IP. He’s definitely dodging some bullets as the xFIP of 4.65 doesn’t match the 2.15 ERA at all, so that’s a concern to be sure. He has been a lot better against the left side with a 25.7% K rate, a 3.05 FIP, and a .279 wOBA but I do feel like you’re playing with fire at this salary.
We’re going to be in uncharted waters in this range today but Castillo looks interesting. He’s only pitched 15.2 innings in the majors but has a 2.30 ERA and a 2.71 xFIP, so that’s a good sign. He’s not facing a major-league quality lineup, another plus. Castillo has generated a ground ball rate of 50% in the majors and that has been a calling card in AA and AAA with over 44%. His hard-hit rate is under 29% so the metrics behind Castillo look promising, even if there is no track record. Both sides of the plate are under a .300 wOBA and whiff at least 28% of the time, so I’m willing to continue attacking Kansas City (at least what’s left of them). Castillo should be able to get up to 80 or so pitches today on top of everything else.
A much-anticipated debut for the Marlins, Meyer has somewhat walked through AAA this season. In his nine starts that he wasn’t impacted by an injury, he’s totaled 45 IP, a 1.60 ERA, 53 strikeouts, and just one home run allowed and the righty has a K rate of 28.4%. We love ground ball pitchers that combine that skill with big strikeout potential and he has a 50% ground ball rate while Philly is at 22.6% for the K rate against righties this season. He’s fortunate to get the Phils without Bryce Harper and this is an average lineup right now. In the past 14 days, they are below average in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+, and they are 28th in OBP with a K rate over 24%. As always, there’s no telling how a debut will go but $5,000 is awfully fun to build with. Everyone regards him as a legit starting pitching prospect and we should too.
Honorable Mention
I’m starting to wane on my Lance Lynn love as far as playing him but his metrics do say he’s not been quite THIS bad. He still has a .301 wOBA, 26.8% K rate, and a 2.86 FIP against the right side so let’s see what the Twins put up against him. There’s no doubt it’s generally been a rough go for him so far though.
Max Fried – He’s a very, very good pitcher but at this salary, ground balls just don’t get the job done. Washington has a K rate of just 17.8% against lefties this season and I’m not convinced in the least this is the spot for a ceiling game, even though I think Fried has a strong real-life game.
Marcus Stroman – It’s a revenge spot but he’s not really the style of pitcher I want to try and test against the Mets. He doesn’t have enough strikeout upside on paper to go after them.
Pirates (chalky again)
Braves
Mariners
Orioles
Blue Jays
Cardinals
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