MLB

Saturday is another full slate of games with action starting at 1:10 ET, and ending with a final game at 10:07 ET. There is no shortage of solid targets on the mound or at the plate, so without further ado, let’s get to it!

MLB DFS Aces

Michael Kopech vs Miami Marlins

There are few pitchers who have been as hot as Kopech recently, and I’m ready to roll him out against the Fish on Saturday. Over his last four starts, he has totaled 26.1 IP, allowing 6 ER on 11 hits with a 38/3 K/BB. He draws a Marlins team that is 26th in runs scored on the season.

The fish can hit (.259 BA), but they don’t have much power (24th in MLB with 60). Kopech has had some struggles with keeping the ball in the park in 2023 (15 HR in 68.2 IP), but I’m not overly concerned here. A win may be tough to come by with Sandy Alcantara opposing him, but Sandy hasn’t been his usual self this season.

Kopech and the White Sox are a small +105 dog in this one. I like the upside for Kopech here.

Miles Mikolas vs Cincinnati Reds

Speaking of guys who have been on fire of late, Mikolas has been fantastic since the beginning of May. Over his last six starts, he has allowed 1, 1, 3, 0, 0, and 2 ER, including 7 shutout innings against these Reds (minus Elly De La Cruz of course).

He doesn’t have big strikeout potential in any matchup, and that certainly applies here against a fairly patient Reds lineup. That said, he is a -165 favorite against the Reds and rookie Andrew Abbott (who was fantastic in his MLB debut). Miles is a safe bet for a QS here and could pay off nicely.

Triston McKenzie vs Houston Astros

If you’re chasing strikeout upside, McKenzie is your guy. He was electric in his 2023 debut, striking out 10 Twins over 5 shutout innings while allowing just a single hit and a one walk. Now, this Astros lineup is lightyears better, but the upside is still intact.

These two teams combined to use 15 pitchers in last night’s 14 inning game, so the leash might be a bit longer for McKenzie on Saturday. The Guardians are listed as -135 favorites, despite JP France on the other side who has been solid in his own right. I’m chasing some Ks here with Triston.

MLB DFS Stacks

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Matt Boyd

Matt Boyd has had his ups and downs in his career, but a few things have remained. He can strike batters out at about one per inning, but he is also prone to blowups, and that’s what I’m banking on here. The Diamondbacks have been one of the best surprises in 2023, and that should continue on Saturday.

Boyd has allowed 5 ER in two of his last five starts, and his success has come against the likes of Kansas City, Washington, and the White Sox. This Diamondbacks lineup is a different beast.

Corbin Carroll will be one of the first players clicked into a lot of lineups after his double dong game last night. Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, and Emanuel Rivera are my next favorite options here. There will be plenty of value to join in what could be another high-scoring day for the DBacks.

San Diego Padres vs Kyle Freeland

Kyle Freeland has found ways to invent some success at Coors Field, but overall he still isn’t a very good pitcher. Over his last two starts (both on the road), he has allowed 7 ER in 12.2 IP, including four HR and has a 2/3 K/BB ratio. Yes, you read that correctly. In fact, he has 1 or less strikeout in three of his last four outings.

The Padres are waking up at the plate, and that doesn’t bode well for him. Give me Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Gary Sanchez, and Manny Machado here. Xander Bogaerts and Trent Grisham can fill in as well, I’m all aboard this train on Saturday.

Colorado Rockies vs Ryan Weathers

This is far from a bold prediction, but it seems too simple once again. I’m stacking both sides of Coors and hitting some HR parlays as well. Weathers has been brutal in 2023, posting an ERA north of 5 with a 1.53 WHIP and just a 23/15 K/BB over 35.1 IP.

He has served up 7 ER over just 5.2 innings of work in his last two outings. He doesn’t seem fit to be a starter, and Coors Field will amplify that.

Ryan McMahon is my favorite target here, with Charlie Blackmon, Elias Diaz, Nolan Jones, and Randal Grichuk right behind. I want all the pieces of this game. We saw 15 runs last night, and this total is a massive 12.5. I’m not sure even that is high enough!

MLB DFS Summary

Coors Field on tap again with two bad starters who can’t miss bats. There are plenty of SP in solid spots, but I’ll likely roll out Mikolas for safety then chase some upside with a guy like McKenzie along with my Coors bats!

Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!

Thursday is here, and with it comes one of the best slates of the week! We have action all day long. Let’s get to it!

MLB DFS Aces

Merrill Kelly vs Washington Nationals

There isn’t much sexy about how Kelly pitches. He doesn’t rack up strikeouts usually, but is is efficient and facing one of the lesser lineups in MLB. He has fantastic numbers this season, and this is a prime spot. Kelly owns a 2.80 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and a 77/28 K/BB over 70.2 innings of work. He has allowed 2 or less ER in six of his last seven outings, and has 8+ K in four of those starts.

Arizona is listed as a -155 favorite in this one. Kelly looks like a lock for a quality start against a Nationals team that is largely devoid of power

Tyler Glasnow vs Minnesota Twins

Glasnow is back, and so is his sky-high K potential. The Twins are striking out at an alarming rate, and have scored a grand total of one run in two games so far against the Rays.

Zach Eflin punched out nine two nights ago, and Glasnow has 14 strikeouts in just 9.2 innings of work against the Dodgers and Red Sox. He might not go much past 5 innings, but the upside is massive. The Rays are -165 favorites with a total of just 7.5 runs. Glasnow could hit double digits before he takes a seat in this one.

Spencer Strider vs New York Mets

For better or worse, Strider carries strikeout upside that is second to none. He has looked shaky at time recently, but that doesn’t scare me off of him for a second.

On the season, he has a ridiculous 113/25 K/BB over 69.2 IP. He faced the Mets earlier this season and gave up four ER over five innings, but still managed to strike out eight.

If he keeps the ball in the park, this Mets lineup is very beatable. He is a -175 favorite at home.

MLB DFS Stacks

New York Yankees vs Lance Lynn

The Yankees offense is still one of the elite in MLB, and I am a firm believer that Lance Lynn is just about out of gas.

He had a nice three-game stretch against the Tigers, Royals, and Guardians, but then was absolutely shelled by the Angels last time out.

His hideous 6.55 ERA and 1.51 WHIP to go along with 15 HR allowed in 67 innings of work wont end well in Yankee Stadium today.

Even with Aaron Judge on the shelf, this lineup is in a prime spot. Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Volpe, and even Jake Bauers are in play here. It’s going to be a long day for Mr. Lynn.

San Fransisco Giants vs Chase Anderson

Chase Anderson looks on the surface to be finding success in 2023, but I’m not buying what he is selling.

He has just an 11.9% K rate and has an xBA of .273. His hard hit rate is manageable, but Coors Field is going to catch up to him.

I’m betting today is that day. JD Davis has actually been an elite hitter this season by batted ball metrics. Mitch Haniger is finding his groove, Joc Pederson has top-shelf power, and i can’t het enough of Blake Sabol in a power environment.

Anderson is pitching to contact in a major way. This game has a total of 11.5 for a reason.

Colorado Rockies vs Alex Cobb

Alex Cobb is another pitcher who is destined to see some negative regression. He has kept the ball on the ground at an elite rate of 61.9%, but his HardHit rate is over 44%.

I think this is the perfect time to target both sides of Coors against two aging pitchers who are pitching above their talent level.

Ryan McMahon has been red hot, Nolan Jones is showing some power, Elias Diaz continues to hit well, and the ageless Charlie Blackmon continues to rake. Give me both sides of this one in what should be a very high-scoring affair.

MLB DFS Summary

Coors Field looks too good to pass up, and we have a few good slates split up over a long day!

Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!

It’s Saturday, and you know what that means. Baseball all damn day! The first game of the day starts at 1:10 ET, and we end the action with a 10:10 first pitch in San Diego when the Cubs take on the Padres. Let’s start the weekend off right!

MLB DFS Aces

Sonny Gray vs Cleveland Guardians

Sonny Gray isn’t blowing anyone away, but is averaging just over a strikeout per inning this season (69 in 60 IP). He has kept runners off the bases (1.19 WHIP), and has allowed ZERO home runs. The Guardians don’t hit many anyway, as they are one of the more power-averse teams in MLB.

Overall, Gray has been fantastic this season, and is listed as a -140 favorite in a game with just a 7.5 run total. Cleveland is 29th in runs scored, 24th in AVG, 27th in OBP, 30th in SLG, 29th in OPS, and 30th in HR. Gray should have no problem putting up another quality start here at home.

MacKenzie Gore vs Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are in a close competition with the Chicago White Sox for biggest disappointment this season. They have now lost five straight, and are coming in to face a pitcher who is coming off the best start of his young career.

Gore punched out 11 Royals over 7 strong innings in his last outing, and while that may be tough to replicate, the Phillies have been a dumpster fire. Over their last six games, they have scored 2, 4, 0, 1, 2, and 7 runs. Gore has 74 strikeouts over 58 innings of work, and if he can navigate Bryce Harper, I’m not too concerned about the rest of this lineup. There is some inherent risk here, but the upside is lovely.

Eury Perez vs Oakland Athletics

I mentioned earlier how bad the Guardians have been on offense this season, and the Athletics are the only team who has been worse. Young Eury Perez catches my eye here. He has been solid in his short time in the majors, posting a 19/10 K/BB over 19 innings of work with a 1.21 WHIP.

He hasn’t pitched more than five innings yet, and I don’t expect him to pitch much deeper than that here either way. That said, he is a -200 favorite in a pitcher’s park against the worst offense in baseball. He has had some command issues lately, but the punchout potential is what I’m chasing here. A solid 5-6 innings with a strikeout per inning would be fantastic here.

MLB DFS Stacks

Atlanta Braves vs Ryne Nelson

If there is any disagreement that the Braves are the best offense in baseball…I’m here to argue with you. One look at the statcast data from this team and it is absolutely terrifying. Nelson actually posted a couple solid outings against the Phillies and A’s, but came back down to earth with his last performance in Coors Field. He has a 1.44 WHIP and 5.37 ERA on the season. He has just a 37/18 K/BB over 57 innings.

Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Sean Murhpy make for an elite stack at the top of this lineup. You could chase some power with the biggest piece of garbage in MLB with Marcell Ozuna as well. At least he is hitting baseballs now instead of women. Go Braves!

Toronto Blue Jays vs Tylor Megill

If you want baserunners, you have come to the right place. Megill hands out bases like those guys in Vegas hand out those little business cards. You know the ones I’m talking about. Anyway, Megill has a pathetic 1.59 WHIP across 54 innings of work, and has allowed 33 runs (28 earned).

The Blue Jays overall have struggled, but a few bats jump off the page again. Matt Chapman continues to barrel up the ball, Bo Bichette is hitting like a guy twice his size, and Vlad Jr. is always a threat. I always love some Daulton Varsho due to his versatility as well, and George Springer found the seats last night also. Blue Jays will have opportunities, let’s hope for some big innings.

Kansas City Royals vs Austin Gomber

One of the worst starters in MLB, Gomber has been lit up all season long. He carries a 7 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, a 34/22 K/BB and 12 HR allowed in 54 innings of work. The Royals are constantly overlooked, but this isn’t the spot to turn a blind eye.

Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, MJ Melendez, the ageless Salvador Perez are my top targets. I’m a big fan of a wraparound stack also if Drew Waters is hitting 9th. Don’t expect a lot of power (although he did find the seats last night), but that kid can swing the bat. Get some Royals in your life!

MLB DFS Summary

Gomber, Megill, there are so many exploitable pitchers on the mound. I’ll be looking to combo Royals/Braves, Jays in my stacks and pick my spots with some value bats from the bottom of lineups.

Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!

Thursday is always a fun day of games, and today is no exception. We kick things off at 1:07 with Brewers/Blue Jays, then wrap up the day with a trio of games at 7:10 or later. Let’s get to it!

MLB DFS Aces

Kevin Gausman vs Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers continue to disappoint in 2023, and today looks like no exception. Kevin Gausman takes the hill for Toronto, and he has been excellent this season.He owns a 3.03 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 89/16 K/BB over 68.1 IP.

The Brew Crew has been sluggish at the plate, as they rank 25th or worse in runs scored, hits, AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS. Vegas sees this one coming a mile away as usual, as they listed Toronto as a -200 favorite in this one. Expect Gausman to continue his solid campaign here.

Hunter Greene vs Boston Red Sox

Don’t look now, but the team with the worst ownership in the history of sports is on a 5-game winning streak. Last time out, we saw Green absolutely dominate over 6 no-hit innings with an 11/2 K/BB against the Cubs. He now has 10+K in back-to-back games, and will look to continue that success Thursday night.

On the opposite side, Chris Sale has been solid of late, and we could actually see a lower-scoring game in Boston. I’m banking on a pile of strikeouts for Greene, and let’s hope he can keep his pitch count down and keep the ball in the park!

Max Scherzer vs Philadelphia Phillies

Love him or hate him, Max is looking more and more like his dominant self lately. He is coming off a dominant performance against the Rockies in Coors Field, and has now allowed just two earned runs over his last three starts (18 IP, 19/3 K/BB).

The Phillies offense received a boost with the return of Bryce Harper, but overall this has still been a disaster of a lineup compared to expectations. The Mets and Mad Max are -175 favorites here with a total of 8.5 runs. Max may serve up a solo shot or two, but these bats strike out a good deal. Punchout time.

MLB DFS Stacks

New York Mets vs Taijuan Walker

It is safe to say that the Phillies got absolutely hosed on this Walker deal so far. He has been one of the worst starters in MLB in the early going this season. He has a 5.57 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and just a 43/23 K/BB across 53.1 IP. In fact, over his last three starts, he has just five strikeouts and has allowed 22 baserunners (12.2 IP).

Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Brett Baty, and Fransisco Lindor are my favorites to jump start this onslaught. Some timely hitting could lead to a huge outing for the Mets.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chase Anderson

Chase Anderson has been well-known as the guy who gives up too many home runs. He didn’t make it back to the majors with the Reds, and now he is faking it until he makes it for the Rockies. The 35-year old isn’t fooling anyone. I’m not buying his 1.31 ERA and 0.97 WHIP.

The D-Backs have been showing some ability to mash the ball lately, and I’m betting on big things here. Corbin Carroll, Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. are my top targets here. Give me all the power bats for a guy who pitches to contact.

Houston Astros vs Reid Detmers

Death, taxes, and the Houston Astros against a LHP. Detmers has some solid K upside, but overall he is a subpar pitcher. He has a 4.93 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and a 58/19 K/BB over 45.2 IP. The Astros mash lefties, and I’m all aboard on this short slate.

Yordan can hit L/L, Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena, another LHB in Kyle Tucker, and any RHB in an envious position is in play here. Astros to the moon!

MLB DFS Summary

Thursday is always a roll of the dice. Let’s hope for some sevens.

Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!