We have a packed slate of games all day on Saturday, starting with the London Series between the Cardinals and Cubs. That game has a massive total of 13.5, so have fun with some SGP and single-game DFS action. First main slate of games starts at 4:05 ET. Let’s get to it!
Kelly has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. Across 90 innings of work, he has posted a 2.90 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and a 96/35 K/BB. He now takes on a Giants team that has been performing above their talent level…and in a pitcher’s park.
Kelly has allowed 3 ER or less in seven consecutive starts, and nine of his last ten. The Giants rank in the top 10 in some offensive categories, but they do a lot of their damage via the longball (they have 95 on the season, 9th most in MLB). Kelly has allowed just 9 HR in 90 innings this year, good for less than 1 HR/9. He is a safe bet here with a decent bit of upside.
Jose Berrios got rocked in his last start, serving up 5 ER on 8 hits across just four innings against the Marlins. He draws a much more favorable matchup here against the worst offense in baseball. The Jays are massive -280 favorites here, and Berrios should be able to get back on track.
Prior to his disaster last time out, Berrios had allowed 0, 2, 1, 0, and 1 ER over his last five starts with a combined 23/13 K/BB. He doesn’t possess a very high ceiling (79 K in 89 IP), but should be able to pitch deep here if his command is in check.
Remember the days of James Paxton being an ace? Well, he has certainly looked the part again thus far in 2023 since his return. He has been electric of late, striking out 32 batters and walking just 5 over his last four starts. During that span, he has allowed just 6 ER in 23.1 innings of work.
The White Sox have some power bats that can take advantage of Paxton’s longball issues, but if he continues to command the zone as he has, a solo shot or two won’t hurt him too badly. The Red Sox are small -120 favorites on the road in this one.
Dean Kremer is one of the worst pitchers in baseball who continues to get regular work. His numbers aren’t terrible (4.56 ERA, 1.41 WHIP), but he has given up 14 HR in 81 innings of work, and now faces a red-hot offense. His statcast metrics suggest that he is much, much worse than these numbers.
I’m banking on the Mariners putting up big numbers in this one. Julio Rodriguez, Ty France, Teoscar Hernandez, Jarred Kelenic, and Cal Raleigh are my main targets here.
This is a match made in heaven if you’re the Tampa Bay Rays. The actual worst starter in the majors faces the team that can’t stop hitting home runs. What could go wrong? Lyles is now 0-11 with a 6.72 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and just a 62/29 K/BB over 85.2 innings. Did I mention he has given up 18 HR? Let’s go ahead and assume that number will be 20+ by the end of Saturday.
Jose Siri has been on fire, Randy Arozarena does it all, Manuel Margot is finding his swing, Josh Lowe and Issac Paredes are always threats. Take your pick here, I’d be stunned if Lyles keeps this one close.
We only saw 11 runs scored last night between these two teams, but Saturday night is set up for some fireworks. Neither Griffin Canning or Chase Anderson are in a good spot here. The total is a huge 12.5. Anderson has given up 7 HR in his last four starts, and Canning has served up 6 over his last four.
I can’t just name them all, but you know what to do here.
Ohtani, Trout, Drury, Renfroe, Elias Diaz, Nolan Jones, Ryan McMahon, Randall Grichuk. Anyone with an ounce of pop should be on your radar here.
The London game looks like fun to kick things off, and we end with what looks like a massive shootout in Coors Field. Happy Saturday to everyone!
Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
Eight games on tap for Thursday, with four beginning just after 1:05 ET, followed by a random 3:45 game, then the nightcap is three games starting at 6:40 ET. There are a few nice spots to target Thursday, so let’s get right to it!
The Royals offense is hot garbage. They rank 29th in runs scored, 23rd in hits, 29th in OBP, 28th in OPS, and 26th in HR. McClanahan and the Rays are listed as ridiculous -360 favorites in this one, and it’s hard to argue with it. The Rays are more than 30 games ahead of Kansas City (yes, THIRTY), and McClanahan is in a tremendous spot.
He has given up 1 or fewer ER in four of his last six starts while compiling a 36/9 K/BB. He is striking out more than a batter per inning (97 in 89.1 IP), and has an elite WHIP of just 1.10. He will be very high owned on the late slate, but I don’t see much reason to fade him. This is one of the largest favorites we have seen this season, and there is very little downside in this matchup.
Joe Ryan is one of the best pitchers to not get the respect he deserves. His numbers this season are nothing short of elite.
84.2 IP
3.30 ERA
0.97 WHIP
91/15 K/BB
This isn’t an easy matchup by any means, as Boston ranks near the top of MLB in AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS. That said, great pitching outweighs great hitting more often than not. Ryan is actually coming off his worst start of the season, as he gave up 6 ER to the lowly Detroit Tigers. His command was still excellent, posting a 7/0 K/BB. This isn’t an ideal spot for a pitcher, but I’m taking Ryan here rather than Aaron Nola against the Braves’ powerful lineup.
Looking at the early games, Allen jumps out at me. The main draw here is the matchup (Oakland is the worst offense in baseball). Allen has actually struggled quite a bit over his last two starts, serving up 10 ER to the Padres and Astros. However, he hadn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his previous 8 starts this season.
Oakland’s offense is scaring nobody but their fans, and Allen has flashed some upside as well. He has three starts with at least 8 K in 2023, and Vegas is on board with him again today as a -175 favorite against JP Sears (who hasn’t been too bad himself).
Aaron Nola is still a very good pitcher, but this isn’t the arm we are accustomed to. He has allowed 4 ER or more in four of his last five starts, and now faces the toughest lineup in MLB. The Braves took Nola deep three times in their last meeting, and hung five ER on him in six innings of work.
I’m going back to the well here. Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, and Marcell Ozuna have all had a lot of success against Nola (including 3+ HR each). That’s where I’m starting my stack. Ozzie Albies has been heating up, and Michael Harris II is batting over .500 for the last week. This team is absolutely on fire offensively, and there isn’t a pitcher on the planet I’m taking in this matchup right now.
In what will be a bullpen game for Kansas City, we will see Cuas, likely followed by Austin Cox and Brooks Kriske on Thursday. Regardless of which arm is on the mound, the Rays are in a great spot. Arguably the best lineup in baseball, I’m banking on the Rays to put up some big numbers here.
Yandy Diaz, Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco, and the power-hitting Isaac Paredes top my list here, but I’m OK with rostering just about anyone in this lineup. It’s likely that this one turns quickly for Kansas City.
The Diamondbacks are one of the most fun young teams in MLB (well below my Cincinnati Reds…winners of 11 straight!). Irvin hasn’t necessarily been bad, but he doesn’t miss bats and his control has been poor. Across 36 innings of work, he has a 27/22 K/BB and has served up 21 ER.
Corbin Carroll, Christian Walker, Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, and Ketel Marte stand atop my list of bats to target Irvin with. We will be rolling as soon as we see Irvin get wild then Walker parks one in the cheap seats. All aboard the D-Backs train!
We have a nice fun split slate on Thursday, let’s ride some hot bats to the top of the leaderboards!
Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
Thursday just keeps getting better and better for DFS action. Today we have 10 total games, with one lone 1:05 game, followed by a pair of afternoon games before the late slate. I’ll focus on the main slate for today, since the majority of action is in the evening for once. Let’s roll!
Gray is never a sexy pick, but he is having a solid season for the Twins. He is one of the safer plays of the day. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in a start this season, and has allowed 1 ER or less eight times. His strikeouts have slowed down a good deal, but he is still averaging over a K per inning.
The Tigers’ bats woke up yesterday against the Braves, but I’m not expecting much from them here. Gray has allowed just a single homer in 2023, and the Twins are listed as -200 favorites against the #29 offense in MLB in terms of runs scored. Gray is a solid floor play today.
The Cubs have been truly pathetic over the last month or so, but Stroman continues to dominate. It sure looks like he will be a primary target for pitcher-needy contenders at the deadline, but we will deal with that later. For now, he’s in a Cubs uniform, and he’s firing on all cylinders.
Over his last three starts, (21.2 IP) he has allowed just two earned runs while posting a 19/8 K/BB and giving up just 11 hits. The Pirates are in first place in the NL Central, but we will see how long that lasts. The team isn’t particularly good at anything, but they have just enough to keep their heads above water.
Either way, don’t expect a pile of strikeouts from Stroman, but we can bank on a solid outing that won’t torpedo our lineups. He owns a 2.42 ERA and 1.04 WHIP on the season. He’s ready for the Pirates’ middling lineup.
Choosing Shohei Ohtani here would be simple, but this matchup is lightyears easier for Javier than facing the Rangers in Arlington. Javier has been tremendous in 2023, posting a 3.13 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with a 74/19 K/BB over 74.2 innings of work.
The Nationals have a few bright spots, but overall they are still…well, the Nationals. They are 6th in BA in MLB, but 23rd in runs, 24th in slugging, 23rd in OPS, and 29th in HR. The could string together some hits at some point, but the are seriously lacking power, and Javier does a great job of limiting damage. Houston is a huge -210 favorite here.
Michael Grove has been little short of bad this season. He had one good outing against the Cubs, but has gotten hit hard in his last two starts, serving up 8 ER on 11 hits in 9 innings of work. While I do think that he is a bit better than these results indicate, the White Sox have a prime opportunity to make a run in the AL Central, and I like this spot for them.
Luis Robert is quietly having a great season, Eloy Jimenez just returned from another absence, and Jake Burger is mashing baseballs under the radar. He has a ridiculous 53.3% HardHit and a 21.5% Barrel rate. He went deep twice last night, and I’m loving him again here. Andrew Vaughn, Tim Anderson, or Yasmani Grandal are fine fillers for your Sox stacks.
You all know I’m not a Kyle Freeland fan, and that won’t ever change. Any time I get the opportunity to stack the Braves against a guy who doesn’t miss bats, I’m all aboard. Freeland has just a 15.7% K rate and is allowing 40% HardHit on the season.
The Braves’ statcast data looks like a fire. There is red everywhere. They have FOUR batters with a xSLG of at least .513, and those are my main targets. Ronald Acuna Jr., Marcell Ozuna, Sean Murphy, and Matt Olson. Orlando Arcia has hit well of late, and Michael Harris Jr. is always a threat in a wraparound stack. The Braves could put up a huge number again here.
I’m not sure if Dylan Cease is broken, but his statcast data is incredibly alarming. He is giving up a 48% HardHit on the season, is walking over 10% of the batters he faces, and now he lines up against the Dodgers in their own backyard. Not a recipe for success.
Cease pitched great over his last two starts, but you can’t take the talent from those two teams COMBINED (Miami and Detroit) to make even half of this lineup. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, and the ageless JD Martinez are the top options here. With Cease struggling with his command, we could see some early fireworks in LA.
It’s Kyle Freeland day again! Back to the well. I see another shootout on tap in LA this evening, and will be rolling with some safe pitching to fit some bats. All aboard the Braves train, let’s make some money!
Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
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