Jared Contestabile 
Thursday just keeps getting better and better for DFS action. Today we have 10 total games, with one lone 1:05 game, followed by a pair of afternoon games before the late slate. I’ll focus on the main slate for today, since the majority of action is in the evening for once. Let’s roll!
MLB DFS Aces
Sonny Gray vs Detroit Tigers
Gray is never a sexy pick, but he is having a solid season for the Twins. He is one of the safer plays of the day. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in a start this season, and has allowed 1 ER or less eight times. His strikeouts have slowed down a good deal, but he is still averaging over a K per inning.
The Tigers’ bats woke up yesterday against the Braves, but I’m not expecting much from them here. Gray has allowed just a single homer in 2023, and the Twins are listed as -200 favorites against the #29 offense in MLB in terms of runs scored. Gray is a solid floor play today.
Marcus Stroman vs Pittsburgh Pirates
The Cubs have been truly pathetic over the last month or so, but Stroman continues to dominate. It sure looks like he will be a primary target for pitcher-needy contenders at the deadline, but we will deal with that later. For now, he’s in a Cubs uniform, and he’s firing on all cylinders.
Over his last three starts, (21.2 IP) he has allowed just two earned runs while posting a 19/8 K/BB and giving up just 11 hits. The Pirates are in first place in the NL Central, but we will see how long that lasts. The team isn’t particularly good at anything, but they have just enough to keep their heads above water.
Either way, don’t expect a pile of strikeouts from Stroman, but we can bank on a solid outing that won’t torpedo our lineups. He owns a 2.42 ERA and 1.04 WHIP on the season. He’s ready for the Pirates’ middling lineup.
Christian Javier vs Washington Nationals
Choosing Shohei Ohtani here would be simple, but this matchup is lightyears easier for Javier than facing the Rangers in Arlington. Javier has been tremendous in 2023, posting a 3.13 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with a 74/19 K/BB over 74.2 innings of work.
The Nationals have a few bright spots, but overall they are still…well, the Nationals. They are 6th in BA in MLB, but 23rd in runs, 24th in slugging, 23rd in OPS, and 29th in HR. The could string together some hits at some point, but the are seriously lacking power, and Javier does a great job of limiting damage. Houston is a huge -210 favorite here.
MLB DFS Stacks
Chicago White Sox vs Michael Grove
Michael Grove has been little short of bad this season. He had one good outing against the Cubs, but has gotten hit hard in his last two starts, serving up 8 ER on 11 hits in 9 innings of work. While I do think that he is a bit better than these results indicate, the White Sox have a prime opportunity to make a run in the AL Central, and I like this spot for them.
Luis Robert is quietly having a great season, Eloy Jimenez just returned from another absence, and Jake Burger is mashing baseballs under the radar. He has a ridiculous 53.3% HardHit and a 21.5% Barrel rate. He went deep twice last night, and I’m loving him again here. Andrew Vaughn, Tim Anderson, or Yasmani Grandal are fine fillers for your Sox stacks.
Atlanta Braves vs Kyle Freeland
You all know I’m not a Kyle Freeland fan, and that won’t ever change. Any time I get the opportunity to stack the Braves against a guy who doesn’t miss bats, I’m all aboard. Freeland has just a 15.7% K rate and is allowing 40% HardHit on the season.
The Braves’ statcast data looks like a fire. There is red everywhere. They have FOUR batters with a xSLG of at least .513, and those are my main targets. Ronald Acuna Jr., Marcell Ozuna, Sean Murphy, and Matt Olson. Orlando Arcia has hit well of late, and Michael Harris Jr. is always a threat in a wraparound stack. The Braves could put up a huge number again here.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Dylan Cease
I’m not sure if Dylan Cease is broken, but his statcast data is incredibly alarming. He is giving up a 48% HardHit on the season, is walking over 10% of the batters he faces, and now he lines up against the Dodgers in their own backyard. Not a recipe for success.
Cease pitched great over his last two starts, but you can’t take the talent from those two teams COMBINED (Miami and Detroit) to make even half of this lineup. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, and the ageless JD Martinez are the top options here. With Cease struggling with his command, we could see some early fireworks in LA.
MLB DFS Summary
It’s Kyle Freeland day again! Back to the well. I see another shootout on tap in LA this evening, and will be rolling with some safe pitching to fit some bats. All aboard the Braves train, let’s make some money!
Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
