It’s the last day of games before the All-Star break, which means a few things. We will likely see some lineups we don’t expect, guys being given a bit of rest, and everything in between. The main slate starts at 1:35 ET, and there is plenty to be excited about! Let’s crush this slate then get ready to make some money on the Home Run Derby!
Yet another player who came up with Oakland who is finding success elsewhere. Weird how that happens. We aren’t here to commiserate about that team and their ineptitude. What we ARE here for is money, and Luzardo has been MONEY lately.
His last three starts have each been worth a minimum of 28.7 DK points, and he has a 26/4 K/BB over those three outings while allowing…ZERO runs. He has 120 K in 103 innings of work, and the Phillies are always susceptible to the punchout. While some may flock to the more proven commodity in Aaron Nola in this game, I’m on Luzardo.
Over the last 7 days, the Phillies offense has been pathetic, posting a 23.7% K rate and a 3.4% BB rate, which is EASILY the lowest in baseball over that span.
Luzardo should have plenty of upside in this one, and I love him here. The Marlins are small -120 favorites here with a total of just 7.5. It’s time to turn to Jesus.
No, this isn’t a piggyback play after what happened to Toronto yesterday. What I’m after here is one of the best young arms in the game who is ready to roll. His 2023 debut was nothing short of spectacular, tossing four no-hit innings with six punchouts against the A’s on just 58 pitches.
I would be stunned to see him go much more than 80 pitches here as the Tigers ease him back into action, but we have to take some shots on a slate like this, and I love Skubal. The dynasty baseball nerd in me has been watching his progress for years, and the kid has ace potential in my book.
The short leash certainly puts a damper on his upside, but I’m rolling with him here. We may see an unorthodox lineup from Toronto, but either way I think he can smash this salary. The risk is inherent, but you don’t win without taking chances. This is my hill to die on today.
Bieber is still a very good pitcher, although he isn’t often the guy who will rack up huge strikeout numbers anymore. Well, facing a Kansas City offense may change that for him today. He faced this same AAAA squad two starts back and was fantastic, striking out 8 over six scoreless innings with just a single walk and two hits.
He has had his issues this season, including five walks last time out against Atlanta, but we can go ahead and give him a pass there. This play is about safety and some upside, and Bieber has it all against this offense. The Royals have a 27.1% K rate over the last week, a .277 team wOBA, and a 73 wRC+. They are struggling big time, and the Guardians are looking to end the first half in a big way. Bieber is a solid option today.
The former Reds pitcher is in for a rough day on Sunday. The Reds have shocked the MLB world with their breakout this season, and they have been one of the best against LHP. On the season, they own a .770 OPS, .335 wOBA, and a walk rate north of 8% against southpaws.
Miley is a contact pitcher who doesn’t miss bats very often. He has just 38 strikeouts to 16 walks over 61 innings this season, and the Reds lineup is dangerous.
Elly De La Cruz just completed more history yesterday by stealing every base in about 10 seconds, Joey Votto has found the fountain of youth (be sure to check if he is in the lineup), and the list goes on all day. Matt Mclain, Spencer Steer, Tyler Stephenson, and Jake Fraley are all in play here. Kevin Newman shouldn’t be blocking CES anymore, but he is cheap and could hit leadoff. The Reds are looking to make a statment before the break, and Miley is going to have to take on the challenge.
Godspeed.
Sure, Matz is unlikely to go past 4 innings or so, as his highest pitch count is 64 since late May as a bullpen arm. He is taking the place of Adam Wainwright because he is “hurt” (he just sucks, but that’s what we are being told).
Luis Robert is one of the hottest hitters on the planet, Eloy Jimenez is taking form, Jake Burger, Oscar Colas, and Tim Anderson all have some upside here as well. Matz may be given a longer leash in order to preserve some bullpen arms, and that is good news for the ‘Sox. They can’t be any worse than they were yesterday, right?
Regardless of the fact that he is a truly terrible person and shouldn’t be playing professional baseball, German is not that good as a pitcher either. Perfect game aside, he has had major struggles this season. I imagine Dansby Swanson will continue to get rest going into the break, but did you know that Cody Bellinger (despite going 0-4 yesterday) is batting .449 over the last 14 days? Even more impressively, his K rate is 7.5% over that span. He is looking again like a former MVP.
Journeyman Mike Tauchman has been heating up, Ian Happ is always a threat to park one in the seats, Nico Hoerner is one of the best contact hitters in the game, and Seiya Suzuki has power upside as well. If you believe in Christopher Morel also, I don’t blame you.
This is going to be a bad day for a bad person, and we will make some money from it. Let’s go Cubbies!
I hope everyone makes some cash and enjoys the All-Star Break! See you all here again next week!
Find the team in the Win Daily Discord channel and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
Saturday is here, and we have a nice 11-game slate starting at 1:05 ET! There are quite a few options I’m excited about on this slate, and plenty of targets to stack against! Time to get this money train rolling. Let’s do it!
Paxton was one of the best pitchers in MLB before he missed what felt like 10 years with injury. Well, he is back and as good as ever, sporting a 2.70 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 61/13 K/BB over 50 innings of work. Saturday he takes on the lowly Athletics, and is a monster -220 favorite.
Oakland isn’t a team that strikes out a ton, but they also rank 30th in MLB in both runs scored and hits. Estuery Ruiz is now on the IL, which takes away some speed from the basepaths. Paxton is expensive, but he may be worth every penny in what looks like a dream home matchup this afternoon.
Saturday’s slate seems like as good a time as any to take advantage of some significant mismatches. The Tigers haven’t been much better offensively than the Athletics, and they have to face the workhorse Gausman.
Also listed as a -220 favorite, Gausman is one of the frontrunners for CY Young in the American League. He has racked up 146 strikeouts to just 27 walks in his 109.2 innings in 2023. Gausman has 11+ strikeouts in three of his last seven games, and seven times overall this season.
He is a solid bet to lead the Jays to another road win here, and should have little issue racking up strikeouts here once again on the road in a pitcher’s park in Detroit.
It is well-known how bad the Twins have struggled at making contact this season. For the entire season, the Twins have a K rate of nearly 27%, which is the worse in all of MLB. They are a league-average offense that is loaded with bats like Joey Gallo and Byron Buxton that are true three-outcome hitters.
Wells should have no problem racking up some Ks here, and regardless of that, he has been incredibly solid this season. He owns a 3.19 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 99/22 K/BB in 2023. Home runs have been an issue, as he has served up 21 of those bad boys already. Crazily enough, he somehow finds a way to give up primarily solo shots.
A product of keeping the bases clear, Wells hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in a start since May 24th against the Yankees, despite having three games where he allowed 2 HR.
If he keeps the ball in the park and ducks off the pond, he is a sneaky contender for one of the high scores of the day.
Seabold is…not good. On the season, he has an ERA nearing 7, a 1.47 WHIP, and has allowed EIGHT home runs over his last three starts. While this Giants offense isn’t nearly as good as the Dodgers and Braves who did 2/3 of that damage to Mr. Seabold, the upside is there.
There are few bats that I’m excited about for this one, but I expect plenty of fireworks. This is the ultimate “get-right” situation for the Giants. JD Davis, Patrick Bailey, Joc Pederson, Luis Matos, and LaMonte Wade Jr. are my primary targets here. Blake Sabol might get a start, and he is worth a look as well. This is more of a lack of confidence in Seabold than it is confidence in the Giants.
Remember when Touki was one of the top prospects in the minors? He was supposed to be the next big thing? He had his moments, but overall he is a fringe MLB player at best. His command was always poor, and that isn’t going to serve him well against the Cardinals.
Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado will have their way with him, Brendan Donovan is swinging a hot bat, Nolan Gorman has top-shelf power, and Jordan Walker is struggling, but this may be the spot to get him going as well. I love this stack, and even though the team sucks overall, we are just here for fantasy points. Stack ’em up!
The Reds were mowed down by Corbin Burnes for the most part yesterday, but showed some signs of life late. Colin Rea isn’t the pitcher who will be fooling many of these hitters. He has a total of 7 strikeouts over his last three starts (18.1 IP), and if these Reds are making contact, it is generally very loud contact.
Elly De La Cruz, Matt Mclain, Jonathan India, Joey Votto, and even Will Benson or Tyler Stephenson for a wraparound stack. I’m all over the Reds here, and think they put a hurting on Rea. I optimistically hoped they would get to Burnes, but Counsell was smart and pulled him just as the wheels started to fall off.
This is a huge game in the division, and I’m expecting fireworks on both sides. The Brewers are a solid stack as well against Luke Weaver, but I’ll take some lower ownership on the Reds.
Good luck on Saturday! I love the Cardinals stack and will be filling in around Wells and one of the other top arms with bats from the Reds and Giants! Let’s kick the weekend off right!
Find the team in the Win Daily Discord channel and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
Thursday is here and we are ready to crush the day! I’ll be focusing on the night slate that begins at 7:05 ET. We have seven games on tap for the evening, and plenty of opportunities to cash in big! Let’s get right to it.
Eovaldi isn’t cheap on the night slate, but you simply cannot argue with how productive he has been all season long. Now facing his former team on the road, he may have a bit of a tougher path to success, but his floor is unmatched on this slate.
He has been very solid over his last two starts especially, allowing just 6 H and 2 ER over 12.2 IP against the Yankees and Astros. He does have just a 10/6 K/BB over that stretch, but I’m not overly concerned with that. He has a WHIP under 1 on the season, has been limiting opportunities, and is backed by one of the best lineups in MLB.
One of the dark horse candidates for Cy Young, he looks like a solid play for Thursday evening. At his price, I’m not certain there is a lot of upside here, but the high floor is awfully tempting.
Not only are the Yankees an embarrassingly bad offense without Aaron Judge, Bradish has quietly been damn good this season.
He has allowed just 4 ER over his last four starts (25 IP) with a 23/5 K/BB. One of the best things he has done is limit baserunners, and if he can keep the ball in the park (no easy task in Yankee Stadium), he could be one of the high scorers of the day at a middling salary. Across 78 innings of work this season, he owns a solid 74/21 K/BB.
Nobody is afraid of this Yankee lineup right now, although there have been some bright spots of late. Anthony Volpe has been crushing the ball recently, but I have zero qualms about this matchup for Bradish. I expect another stellar performance. Baltimore is a small -125 favorite in this one with Bradish being opposed by Luis Severino.
For those of you who have read my articles this season, you likely know that I love Kirby. His command is absolutely elite, and that’s exactly what we are looking for in a DFS pitcher. In 101 innings this season, he has an 86/9 K/BB, and stunningly enough, he walked more than one batter last game…for the FIRST time all season.
Houston has a solid lineup as we know well, but are still missing their best hitter in Yordan Alvarez (sorry, Kyle Tucker). Kirby’s main issue this season has been HR, but even that stat is misleading overall. He has given up 11 longballs, but four of them came in one start against the Pirates back in May.
Kirby isn’t the type to rack up a huge number of strikeouts, but given the layout of this slate, I’m taking the safety. There are too many gas cans at the bottom of the barrel tonight who are just waiting to get crushed. That said, let’s get to a few of them.
I actually hate stacking the Guardians, but when Mr. Lyles is on the mound, I feel just fine making some concessions. He actually had a serviceable start last time out against the Rays (6 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 2 K), but that’s about as good as it gets. In 91.2 innings this season, he has allowed 89 hits, 19 HR, 68 ER, and has just a 64/30 K/BB.
Cleveland is one of the most patient teams in MLB and they do not waste AB nor strike out a lot (no thanks to Josh Bell). I’m sure they are more than happy to be finished with the Braves and move straight to Lyles.
Jose Ramirez is the obvious top choice here, Amed Rosario had one of those random huge games recently, and his speed combo gives him a nice ceiling. Bo Naylor has plenty of upside, and Will Brennan has quietly been a solid hitter recently. I don’t mind Steven Kwan, just know that you get what you get. Singles, doubles, a bit of speed, but no HR upside. Guardians should make life very difficult for Lyles tonight.
Carrasco is one of those MLB guys that everyone just loves as a person. That’s a beautiful thought, but we are here to make some money. He has a 1.57 WHIP, 5.94 ERA, and just a 39/26 K/BB over 53 innings this season.
I still love this lineup, and am fine playing just about anyone from it tonight. Corbin Carroll, Christian Walker, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Ketel Marte, even Jake McCarthy for his upside on the bases. Arizona has lost 3 straight, but is listed as a -135 favorite here despite Ryne Nelson being on the mound. This one might sail over the 10.5 run total.
For the good and the bad in his game, I don’t trust Oviedo at all. Milwaukee just had their turn beating up on him to the tune of 8 ER in five innings, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see more of the same here. His 81/38 K/BB over 93.2 innings is nothing to be proud of, and he had a stretch of very easy matchups prior to the beating he took at the hands of the Brewers.
Mookie Betts is hitting balls to the moon right now, JD Martinez has found his fountain of youth, David Peralta is a fun guy to roster as you chase a HR, and both Will Smith and James Outman stand out here as well. I don’t hate Max Muncy, but you better hope he can make contact. He and Kyle Scwarber must be long-lost brothers with these sub-.200 BA and tons of homers they hit.
Good luck Thursday! I’ll be locking in some safety with some top-tier arms and I love Bradish as my value. I’ll be stacking as many bats against some poor pitching to make it happen. Happy Jordan Lyles day!
Find the team in the Win Daily Discord channel and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
It’s finally Saturday! As always, we have a full day of games, first one starts at 1:40 ET and we conclude with Diamondbacks/Angels at 10:07. I went to bed with some awful sickness last night, so I’m going to keep this one short, and sweet. Let’s roll!
We will continue to pick on the A’s until they start caring about winning baseball games. Fortunately, that day isn’t coming any time soon. Cease has had a rollercoaster of a season, but he is still striking batters out at an elite rate.
Over his last five starts, he has allowed no more than 2 ER and has struck out 9+ in three of them. The victims? Dodgers, Angels, and Rangers. This guy is as locked in as any pitcher in the game, and he is in a fantastic spot again against an Oakland team that continues to rank near the bottom of every offensive category (aside from the zillion steals by Esteury Ruiz).
He is my favorite arm of the day, and I’m sure I’m not alone in that. Cease time!
This one is a combination of excitement that Glasnow finally put together a dominant showing last time out (5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 12 K), and a play against a struggling Mariners offense. I’m not expecting the numbers that Glasnow put up against the Royals last time out, but this is still a great spot.
The Mariners have a team K rate north of 27% over the last 14 days and are quickly falling out of contention at the midway point this season. The Rays are still sitting pretty, and Glasnow will be key to any deep run they want to make this season.
With George Kirby on the other side of this one, the total is set at just 7.5, and I’m not opposed to the F5 under here as well.
Here is my bold call of the day. Wind and humidity have only added to the risk for pitchers facing the best lineup in baseball, but Perez has been absolutely electric lately. Over his last three starts, he has thrown 18 shutout innings with a 24/2 K/BB. Five of his last six outings have been scoreless, and the one that wasn’t? He gave up a single run to the White Sox on a solo shot.
While it would be pure magic for him to shut out this lineup, I think he can be a nice GPP pivot on Saturday. He has a 54/15 K/BB, 1.34 ERA, and 0.98 WHIP across 47 innings. This kid is off to a phenomenal start to his career, and he could be a money maker Saturday.
The risk is clear, but the payoff may be worth the squeeze.
Nearly boasting a WHIP of 2 (1.94) across 47 innings of work with just a 33/22 K/BB and 9 HR allowed, it is safe to say that Kyle Muller isn’t having much success. The White Sox have been a major disappointment this season, but there are still some guys swinging the lumber.
Luis Robert has been the hottest hitter not named Ohtani in the league over the last month, Eloy Jimenez is (fingers crossed) finally healthy, Andrew Benintendi has been setting the table quite nicely, and Andrew Vaughn is seeing the ball well. If Jake Burger is in the lineup, I’ll give him a look as well for his power.
Muller has allowed 42 ER in 47 innings. This is unlikely to end well for him.
I’m going a bit off the wall here are targeting Severino with a struggling offense. He looked solid his last time out against Texas, but prior to that, he gave up 19 ER in 18.2 IP across four starts. The Cardinals are a dumpster fire, but they still have elite hitting littered across their lineup, and I’m shooting my shot here.
Paul Goldschmidt never ages, Nolan Arenado is still crushing the ball, and Jordan Walker has been quietly elite in his rookie season. You can look toward Brendan Donovan also, as he has been seeing the ball well of late, and one day Willson Contreras will be hitting the ball again, right? RIGHT?
Led by Mookie Betts, the Dodgers have been on fire of late. Tonight they draw a matchup against Lynch, who is actually coming off of consecutive solid outings. He just finished a 6 inning day against the Rays where he allowed just one ER on a solo homer. What he didn’t do, and doesn’t do well is miss bats. He has 7 strikeouts over his last 20 innings of work.
If you aren’t missing bats, you likely aren’t finding much success against a stacked lineup like LA. I’m all aboard here starting with Mookie Betts, then Freddie Freeman, JD Martinez, and Will Smith. James Outman, Jason Heyward, or David Peralta are fine fillers down at the bottom of the order as well. I’m not a believer in Lynch.
There is a Coors game, and I don’t blame you for going there, but I like some other spots! Let’s find ourselves a GPP win behind our guy Eury Perez, what do you say?
Find the team in the Win Daily Discord channel and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
Thursday is a deep slate of games for once, with a nice afternoon slate and an evening slate with nothing starting past 8:40 ET! Let’s make some money tonight and end the sweats early for once!
With Jon Gray being pushed for the weekend, I’ll pivot to France. He has been an under appreciated asset to the Astros this season. He has posted four consecutive quality starts, including impressive outings against the Dodgers and Angels.
Aside from a 6-walk outing against the Guardians, his command has been solid. He owns a 42/18 K/BB over 53.1 innings of work this season.
Don’t expect a big strikeout number, but he should be in good shape for the win and a quality start with the Astros’ lineup behind him facing the corpse of Adam Wainwright (more on that below).
Bello has been impressive this season, and the Red Sox have needed every bit of it. He owns a 3.27 ERA and 1.27 WHIP across 66 innings of work with a 62/21 K/BB. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in a home start since April 17th, and the Marlins aren’t scaring anyone.
The debate is somehow raging on about Luis Arraez not getting enough love for MVP, but we all know that’s nonsense. Jorge Soler is the hitter that pitchers fear in this lineup, and that’s about it. Jazz Chisholm is back, so there are more strikeouts to have for Bello and company, although we do know he has some power. Bello has served up just 7 HR on the season, so I’m not overly concerned there.
The total here is 9.5 with the Sox as a small -120 favorite. I like the balance of floor and a bit of upside here with Bello. Jesus Luzardo doesn’t look too bad on the opposite side either, but he’s a much deeper play for me.
Walker got off to a rocky start to his 2023 campaign, but has been fantastic of late. Over his last four starts (26 IP), he has allowed just two earned runs with a 26/6 K/BB. He takes on a Cubs team that is great at getting on base, but not great at finishing the job.
Walker faced the windy city foes on May 21st and was solid, giving up just two hits over 5.1 scoreless innings. On a night slate that doesn’t have many options to feel good about, Walker stands out as a solid option.
We are approaching an “Old Yeller” situation with Adam Wainwright. The Cardinals clearly love the guy, but he quite simply is a liability at this point. He has given up at least 8 hits in six consecutive starts, and owns a 16/9 K/BB over that span.
He isn’t missing bats anymore, and that’s a recipe for disaster against a potent Astros lineup. His fellow Cardinal Miles Mikolas learned that the hard way last night. The ‘Stros are in a great spot here. The red-hot Jose Abreu, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Jeremy Pena, Alex Bregman, and Yainer Diaz are all in great spots here. Grab any pieces you want in the contact party tonight. It may just be another shootout like last night.
Yonny Chirinos is a guy who can eat innings, but he fools absolutely noone while doing so. He has just a 23/16 K/BB over 48.1 innings of work, and has a tough one ahead of him here. Arizona is 5th in runs scores, 4th in hits, 3rd in BA, 5th in OPS, 7th in SLG…the list goes on and on.
Ketel Marte has been raking, Corbin Carroll has been quiet but is in a good spot, Christian Walker continues to hit bombs, and that isn’t even all of it. Lourdes Gurriel is a statcast darling, Alek Thomas can help your wraparound stack. I love the D-Backs here.
The Dodgers are still in Coors, you say? I’ll keep this one simple for you here. Chase Anderson against one of the best lineups in baseball in Coors? A match made in heaven.
Mookie Betts, Will Smith, JD Martinez, Freddie Freeman, you know what to do here. Anderson has given up 16 ER in his last 5.2 innings of work. Yes, SIXTEEN. There is no overthinking this one. You want Dodgers, and you want a lot of them.
It seems evident that the Rockies will give him some leash, as they have left him out to die the last two starts. If you can’t fit Dodgers in your lineup, you’re finding a way.
Dodgers, Dodgers, Dodgers! I’ll be mixing in some value plays, but my priority will be Coors. The Rockies don’t look bad against the rookie Sheehan either. Happy Thursday!
Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
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