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Back on the grind with another day’s worth of Monkey Knife Fight plays for you to help line your pockets with a little walking-around money. I’ve had a couple of our subscribers ask so I am going to mix the article up with some plays from multiple sports. A cornucopia of selections if you will. We have some fantastic data that we can take advantage of in our sports betting section so why not take advantage of it?
Cubs still lead the the league in terms of strikeout at 10.07 K/9. Walker Buehler has struck out 10.51 per 9 innings over the last 5 seasons in over 500 innings of work. Over his last two games he has come into form striking out 9 and 10 batters respectively against the Padres and Reds. Hendricks is well, let’s just say struggling in the early going. In five starts he has failed to get past the 4th inning in three of them and failed to strike out more than four in three of them, and is near the bottom of the MLB in nearly every measurable category. Now he gets to face the monstrous Dodgers lineup who average 5.38 runs per game on the road and a .800 team OPS against righties.
Buehler: Over 7.5 Hendricks: Under 4.5
This just in, it looks like the Royals are good at baseball again and a big reason for that is that no batter has a whiff rate higher than 36% including six guys below 24%. Only the Astros strike out less and at home KC is at a minuscule 7.00 K/9. Out of his last three seasons, Civale is also looking at the worst metrics of his career including hard-hit rate, strikeout rate, walk rate, and chase rate. For those reasons, I like Santana plus 1.5 bases+walks. He is one of the sub 24% whiff rate guys I mentioned at 22.9% and in his last ten games, he’s exceeded that number 7 times. And my favorite if you read these regularly for the kicker is the 15mph wind blowing out to right field. Love me some physics.
Civale: Under 5.5 Santana: Over: 1.5
This one may change based on one piece of info. It all hinges on Malcolm Brogdon’s status. I think he plays tonight and if he does Levert will now be relegated to the 3rd option at best with Sabonis not missing a beat after a brief absence. No way the Pacers don’t lean on the mismatch under the glass. Brogdon is also one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA so I think the Pacers will opt to put him on the guy who can actually shoot from the perimeter.
Beal: Under 31.5 Levert: Under 22.5
As you guys/gals know the plays will change throughout the day. If and when they do I’ll post more plays in discord so we can take advantage of line movement. Make sure to join us on the WinDaily Discord chat so you don’t miss out.
Hope you enjoyed my Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight Plays 5.3. I look forward to more content covering all of the sports MKF has to offer. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight for the 2020-21 MLB season! MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $50 when you use promo code WINDAILY. Click on the link below to learn more.
Wind, wind, and more wind for the 10 MLB games that we have to choose from on Monkey Knife Fight. If you have read any of my MLB articles in the past you will know that I may just put more value in wind conditions than just about anyone. If you would like to know why here’s an interesting article from Forbes where you can dip your toe into the science. https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2018/10/23/understanding-the-meteorology-of-a-fly-ball-may-help-baseball-teams/?sh=72cd679b6a5c. Once you wrap up here pop on over there and you’ll gain an understanding as to why I value it so much. Ok, I am done nerding out, let’s dive into our Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 4.28.
Bizarro world here but you are seeing this correctly, I am taking the under 8.5 K’s on Glasnow and the over on Irving’s 3.5 K’s. The A’s are one of the best teams on this young season with making contact and they are sitting at 11th in strikeouts averaging 8.8 K’s per 9 innings. Rays on the other hand are bottom five sitting just under 10 strikeouts per game and a strikeout percentage of 32.7% against left handed pitching. No props out elsewhere but I’d imagine the number for Glasnow will be lower than 8.5 when they come out.
Don’t kill me here, Degrom is the best pitcher in baseball with a bullet. By no means do I think he’s going to get rocked. I just don’t think he will K 11 batters. The Red Sox are top five in the following categories: Slugging (1st), OBP (3rd), Babip (1st), OPS (1st), ISO (5th), Strikeouts (5th), and Extra Base Hits (1st). Add the wind blowing out to right around 10 MPH and I’ll go under just this once. Mets bats are nowhere near as potent on the season sitting near the bottom in almost every power category but one thing they are good at is not striking out sitting at 3rd on the season with 8.17 K’s per nine innings. Pivetta is far from a strikeout artist only exceeding 4 strikeouts once in four appearances and that was against one the worst offensive teams in baseball in the Orioles so the under feels pretty good here.
With a 9.5 implied run total and climbing, favorable wind conditions, and a gas can arm in Erick Fedde against a Blue Jays offense that just put nine on the Natinals (bonus points if you get that) last night and this will be my target for offense this morning. I’m going to lead it with Vlad Jr who was the main reason for those nine runs blasting three HR’s. After that you can pick your poison but I’m going to opt for Bo Bichette and Trea Turner. Bichette is sitting at a .231 ISO and 41% hard hit rate against righties . Trea is turning it on lately hitting four home runs in his last eight games including two last night and he is smashing Left Handed pitchers albeit a small sample with three of his six homers in 19 plate appearances. My preference is to stick with the .5 HR’s but your mileage may vary. I never go beyond the 1.5 HR just due to the variance that comes from home runs.
As you guys/gals know the plays will change throughout the day. If and when they do I’ll post more plays in discord so we can take advantage of line movement. Make sure to join us at windailysports.com/chat so you don’t miss out.
This is just a quick little article to get the blood flowing for everyone. Hope you enjoyed my Monkey Knife Fight MLB plays 4.28. Expect more articles with more selections as the data evens out over this long 162 game season. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight for the 2020-21 MLB season! MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $50 when you use promo code WINDAILY. Click on the link below to learn more.
Happy Monday Morning ladies and gentlemen! We have a nice windy 14 game slate ahead of us that we should have some fun with. We’ll have a little fun with the bats but at the end of the day you have people trying to hit a round ball traveling close to 100 mph with a cylindrical stick so while you will see some hitting props on here I tend to lean towards pitchers when choosing plays.
The two top aces and most prolific strikeout pitchers on the board today against two of the most strikeout prone teams in the early part of the 2021 season. It feels like a trap but I’m falling for it. I don’t really think I need to say all that much about either Tyler Glasnow or Gerrit Cole. If you don’t know who they are I don’t really know why you’re reading this. Take the overs and have some fun.
This prop feels like a trap. Triston Mckenzie is an absolute top young army but way more young than top at this point. He only pitched 3.2 in his first outing on the 5th and it looks like Cleveland is going to take their time getting him going this season. It doesn’t help much that in the 58 pitches he threw he managed to walk four. He can rack up K’s with the best of them, I just don’t know if he’s in long enough. Carlos Rodon on the other hand looked great in his first game striking out 9 and in his last stint as a starter in 2019 he struck out no less than 5 batters in all seven starts. I don’t expect him to have as strong of an outing against Cleveland but I feel pretty good about him fanning 5 today.
With a 10+ run implied total, wind blowing out to dead center hard, JD Martinez fresh off of a three home run game, and the team with the highest average launch angle in the league in the Minnesota Twins the home run derby for this game is the perfect fit. My usual stance is to just take the 0.5 goal and take the money but I’m feeling a little froggy given the combination of circumstances in this game. It’s likely I end up taking the 1.5 goal to triple my return. I’ve been trying to talk myself out of it but I just don’t see a scenario where Happ or Perez slows down either of these offenses today.
I will be putting out extra plays as I see them in our discord chat so be sure to pop in there from time to time to see what pops up. As lines change so does the value.
This is just a quick little article to get the blood flowing for everyone. Hope you enjoyed my Monkey Knife Fight MLB plays 4.12. Expect more articles with more selections as the data evens out over this long 162 game season. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight for the 2020-21 MLB season! MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $50 when you use promo code WINDAILY. Click on the link below to learn more.
Did you miss me? Sure you did. I hate to have kept you all waiting for so long but I promise you it’ll be worth it. We have six games to choose from as of right now and one of the things I like to do when it comes to MLB is to target wind conditions when choosing hit props. It is by no means a guarantee but the slightest edges make a huge difference over the long term. I won’t melt your face with the math but a 10 mph wind can add or subtract over 30 feet to the distance of a fly ball. Enough chit-chat, here is my Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 4.8.
Both the Pirates and the Cubs have been at the bottom of the barrel when it comes to K-rate over the last few seasons in the MLB and they have started 2021 in the same way. Cubs have struck out 48 times in five games thus fast including striking out seven times against Tyler Anderson in his first start. Jake Arrieta is a little tougher, but with the Pirates sporting a 26.9% K-rate in the early part of this season I’m willing to take the chance. If you were so inclined to take the under on Jake I would not argue with you but I think he will throw his 85 pitches, get his 5-6 innings and get his 5 K’s and call it a day.
This is one of those situations where I’m using the wind to my advantage. It’s projected to be blowing out to left field at around 13mph and you are giving me guys like Yelich, Arenoda, Cain, and Arenado to choose from. Sign me up for that. I don’t get cute with my risk and I’ll stick with my 1.5x return for a home run but if you wanted 3x your investment for two homers I think you are in a reasonable spot to take advantage. I just think the return isn’t worth the risk for the 3 HR prop so stay away from that. I know the Brewers have started a little slow but I have all the confidence in the world that they’ll get on track.
Gray had a freak incident in his first start against the Dodger and had to leave the game in the 6th with full body cramping. Even with the issue he fanned seven against one of the most prolific offenses in the MLB and now he gets a Diamondbacks team with a .631 OPS and they were just skunked 8-0 in their last game against Colorado. When it comes to Merrill Kelly…well…did I mention Colorado put up 8 runs on Arizona last night? Did I mention how many they scored the night before? Also 8 runs. Colorado is 4th in the MLB in slugging with a .465 and 9th best in strikeouts only striking out 8.83 per game on average. Kelly will be a target of mine down the road in DFS but he was smashed in his first outing against the Padres giving up three earned in four innings only striking out four batters and walking three batters. I do not expect a much different result against the Rockies in Colorado.
This is just a quick little article to get the blood flowing for everyone. Hope you enjoyed my Monkey Knife Fight MLB plays 4.8. Expect more articles with more selections as the data evens out over this long 162 game season. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
Here are some quality DFS Hitting Picks for Tuesday, many designed to help you save some salary and bolster your stacks.
C Buster Posey ($4200 on DraftKings): He homered in the first game of yesterday’s doubleheader at Coors and is hitting .351 with eight RBI over his past 10 games.
1B Ryan Zimmerman ($3,700): You will get to pounce on Baltimore’s Asher Wojciechowski here at a lower price. Zimmerman has hit safely in five consecutive games and could break out for a very productive DFS Hitting outing in this matchup.
2B Jonathan Schoop ($3700): Steven Matz has not been right since June after starting the season well, and Schoop gives you Twins exposure for a good price tag against the lefty returning from the bullpen.
SS Brandon Crawford ($3,900): At that price, he is way too obvious of a DFS Hitting choice after a historic day at Coors Field Monday. Ride the wave of momentum, Crawford has a good chance of continuing to sizzle.
3B Marwin Gonzalez ($3500): He is coming off a three-hit game and can save you some salary while giving you another route to attack Matz. Gonzalez is hitting .324 vs. LHPs.
OF Oscar Mercado ($4100): The last time Carpenter faced the Indians, he allowed six earned runs in three innings. Mercado is coming off a two-HR night against Detroit on Monday and should stay hot for DFS Hitting purposes.
OF Jordan Luplow ($4000): We should pick on Carpenter as much as we can, so I’ll be recommending two Cleveland outfielders on this slate. Luplow has hit eight of his nine homers vs. LHPs and is hitting .298 against them.
OF Eloy Jimenez ($4100): You have to take the DFS Hitting shot here on a power display against Glenn Sparkman and his 5.18 ERA. Jimenez has a five-game hitting streak and may be on the verge of an impressive outing.
I am going to take the over for Nelson Cruz for a good night against Matz. Conforto is hitting .167 over the past week and .179 over the past 15 days, so I will take the under on him against Michael Pineda, who has allowed one earned run in four of his past five starts.
On the early slate, Gerrit Cole seems like the obviouschoice at $11,400 on DraftKings against Cincinnati. The Reds are middle of theroad in MLB in home strikeouts. Cole has 60 strikeouts in 40.1 road innings. Heis the apparent cash game play even though you will have to work in somecheaper bats to fit him into your day or full slate lineups.
Blake Snell is your gusty GPP play at 9500 at the Yankees.It’s obviously a big risk, but Snell is capable of dominating any opponent whenhe has his best stuff, and he has allowed three earned runs or less in seven ofhis last eight starts. He is not afraid of the Bronx, as last month he held theYanks to one run in six innings while striking out nine in a no-decision atYankee Stadium.
Zach Eflin (9100) is cheaper than Cole and may be just a tadsafer than Snell. He has allowed three earn runs while striking out 15 in twostarts since coming off the IL. Washington is 18th in home batting,and the lineup is less scary than the Yankees one that Snell has to face. It’seither the better pitcher in Snell vs, the slightly better matchup for Eflin. Iwould prefer Snell in a tournament but it’s close.
Chris Bassitt has to be your only choice for a second DKstarter and may be the best choice on the day slate for combination of value at 8000 and a vulnerable opponent, ashe hosts the Orioles. Baltimore is 27th in road batting and Bassitthas allowed more than three earned runs in a game once this season. You do haveto hope for higher K numbers here, but it’s possible you could just enough witha good chance of a victory.
On the night slate, but you definitely have to considerAndrew Heaney at $8500 at Toronto. He already has a pair of 10-strikeout gamessince coming off the IL and the Blue Jays are Top 7 in the American League inhome strikeouts. The lineup looks more formidable than it did earlier in theseason but it’s still a viable matchup for Heaney, who has looked good in two ofthree turns since coming back. He should get good run support against Aaron Sanchezfor a possible victory.
Lucas Giolito (11,300) is the obvious standout and cashpitcher of the night against the Cubs. Right now, I do not care who Gioloto isfacing, he is the top pitcher on the slate when he is listed among the probables.
Zack Greinke is a GPP play at 9000, as Colorado has been thesecond-best hitting team in the Majors over the past week. You may think theyare less threatening away from Coors, but the Rox have scored five or more runsin six of their last seven road games. Their lineup is clicking regardless ofvenue.
Rich Hill (10,300) faces San Francisco at home, and theGiants are 25th in road batting. Hill has a 2.61 home ERA with 33strikeouts in 31 innings. Hill is also starting to shed concerns about length,as he has worked seven innings in two of his past three starts. He is the bestcash game play if you don’t want to spend up for Gioloto against a betterlineup.
Our experts have been terrific when pinpointing Monkey Knife Fight plays in our premium chat rooms. Tonight, I will take my shot in the Over/Under in the Angels/Jays matchup, locking in Heaney for over 6.5 strikeouts, Mike Trout easily over 1.5 hits plus walks, and considering Aaron Sanchez has not gone over four Ks in five of his past six turns, I’ll take the under on 4.5 strikeouts. Get in against Sanchez now and get 100 percent bonus!
If you are playing on the two-game early DraftKings slate,you will be locked into Kenta Maeda at $8800. You will have to hope he pretendshe is at home, where he has a 1.64 ERA as compared to his 5.64 road figure.Maeda is the best pure starter on the short slate and the only other realrespectable choice to pair him with seems to be Jake Arrieta (8000), as the Padrescertainly appear to be an inviting matchup. Arrieta has been a bit moreeffective in the K department on the road.
At first glance, James Paxton would appear to be well worththe 11,300 against Toronto, but we still cannot be fully certain how far hewill be allowed to go into the game. If you want to risk it with Paxton he isstrictly a GPP play and he will not help your salary structure, either.
You could be looking at a bounce-back spot for Martin Perezagainst Cleveland, Perez is just 7400 and the Indians are ninth in MLB strikeoutsvs. lefties. On the other side of that matchup, I am not taking chances withthe erratic Carlos Carrasco against that potent Minnesota lineup.
Charlie Morton appears to be a quality cash game play andworth the 11,600 against a Tigers team that is fifth in strikeouts. But SpencerTurnbull may not make it easy on the Tampa Bay bats and garnering a victory mightnot be easy for Morton.
Jimmy Nelson (8200) cannot be used yet in his first startback, even against Miami, which could go hitless against him for five inningsafter scoring 16 runs last night.
The Orioles are Top 10 in the league vs. LHPs and John Meanscould hold the Rangers offense in check, so don’t spend 10,800 on Mike Minor.
German Marquez is worth the GPP play at 10,800. The Cubs aremiddle of the road in team hitting and Marquez is 3-1 with a 2.08 ERA in awaygames, with 42 Ks in 43.1 IP. He has struck out at least six batters in all ofhis road starts.
Chris Sale is the apparent cash game play at 10,600 vs. theRoyals but I would pivot off him with Marquez in GPPs.
Brad Peacock is a very appealing pick at 9600 against theMariners, who pace the league in strikeouts. They are also 19th in teambatting over the past seven days. Perez is my favorite non-Sale pick on thenight slate, followed by Peacock and Marquez.
Martin Perez over 4.5 strikeouts vs. Cleveland
This seems to be a very attainable feat for Perez, who has at least seven strikeouts in four of his past six games. He may continue to regress soon, but will get a break from a possible upcoming and recent downturn here. I’d go with the under vs. Carrasco too, as Minnesota is 28th in strikeouts overall. Punch Your Ticket to a Win with Perez here and get 100 percent Bonus!
If you are playing on the two-game early DraftKings slate,you will be locked into Kenta Maeda at $8800. You will have to hope he pretendshe is at home, where he has a 1.64 ERA as compared to his 5.64 road figure.Maeda is the best pure starter on the short slate and the only other realrespectable choice to pair him with seems to be Jake Arrieta (8000), as the Padrescertainly appear to be an inviting matchup. Arrieta has been a bit moreeffective in the K department on the road.
At first glance, James Paxton would appear to be well worththe 11,300 against Toronto, but we still cannot be fully certain how far hewill be allowed to go into the game. If you want to risk it with Paxton he isstrictly a GPP play and he will not help your salary structure, either.
You could be looking at a bounce-back spot for Martin Perezagainst Cleveland, Perez is just 7400 and the Indians are ninth in MLB strikeoutsvs. lefties. On the other side of that matchup, I am not taking chances withthe erratic Carlos Carrasco against that potent Minnesota lineup.
Charlie Morton appears to be a quality cash game play andworth the 11,600 against a Tigers team that is fifth in strikeouts. But SpencerTurnbull may not make it easy on the Tampa Bay bats and garnering a victory mightnot be easy for Morton.
Jimmy Nelson (8200) cannot be used yet in his first startback, even against Miami, which could go hitless against him for five inningsafter scoring 16 runs last night.
The Orioles are Top 10 in the league vs. LHPs and John Meanscould hold the Rangers offense in check, so don’t spend 10,800 on Mike Minor.
German Marquez is worth the GPP play at 10,800. The Cubs aremiddle of the road in team hitting and Marquez is 3-1 with a 2.08 ERA in awaygames, with 42 Ks in 43.1 IP. He has struck out at least six batters in all ofhis road starts.
Chris Sale is the apparent cash game play at 10,600 vs. theRoyals but I would pivot off him with Marquez in GPPs.
Brad Peacock is a very appealing pick at 9600 against theMariners, who pace the league in strikeouts. They are also 19th in teambatting over the past seven days. Perez is my favorite non-Sale pick on thenight slate, followed by Peacock and Marquez.
Martin Perez over 4.5 strikeouts vs. Cleveland
This seems to be a very attainable feat for Perez, who has at least seven strikeouts in four of his past six games. He may continue to regress soon, but will get a break from a possible upcoming and recent downturn here. I’d go with the under vs. Carrasco too, as Minnesota is 28th in strikeouts overall. Punch Your Ticket to a Win with Perez here and get 100 percent Bonus!
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