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MLB DFS

FanDuel Main Slate Breakdown 7.25

Uriah Wesson 5 years ago

written by Uriah Wesson

What is going on everyone? After three long months where we have not only been told to stay in our homes but to do so without sports MLB is back!!! I hope you all have played the last couple of days because the overlay has been the stuff of dreams (almost 50% in some contests on FanDuel). If not, no worries. I am going to breakdown this giant 13 game main contest and give you some players and teams to attack to end your day with a little extra spending cash. Everything in this article is geared towards FanDuel specific pricing so keep that in mind while reading this breakdown.

Pitching:

Cash

Mike Clevinger, Indians, 10.4K:

Ladies and gentlemen, after seeing just how bad the Royals bats are last night when Beiber struck out 14 in six innings on just four hits there is no way I’m starting my cash game pitchers with anyone but Clevinger. In three starts against KC last year he only gave up two earned in 18 and two-thirds innings with 24 strikeouts and KC somehow looks worse offensively to start the year.

Luis Castillo, Reds, 9.8K:

The above mentioned Clevinger and Castillo are the only two pitchers I am rolling out today for cash. It makes no sense for me to use anyone else on FanDuel due to how they put such a points emphasis on K’s compared to DK. A potential Cy Young winner against the lowly Tigers for under 10k is not something FanDuel should have allowed but if they are offering, I will take it all day.

Max Fried, Braves, 7.5K

I’ll give you one more breakdown……..I don’t want to and I don’t advise any other pitcher for cash but If you absolutely can’t afford either, ~~(change your bats)~~ you can roll with Max Fried. He is another example of pricing not being where it should be. The Met’s are loaded with left-handed batters and they are going to have an incredibly difficult time trying to identify his off-speed pitches. He is young so nerves might be an issue, but he is the future Braves Ace no doubt about it.

GPP:

Zack Wheeler, Phillies, 9k:

Wheeler is in a prime spot against the Marlins and I see a scenario where he goes under-owned due to people paying up $800 for Castillo or down for someone like Matz or Freid. He moved teams but not divisions so there is no lack of familiarity against NL East competition and in two of his three starts against the Marlins he had at least ten K’s and eight innings. He does have a history of blow-up games so be mindful of the risk.

Steven Matz, Mets, 7.3K:

Speaking of Matz, he is right there at 7.3K opposite Freid in Atlanta. He is had a decent amount of success against the Braves allowing two earned over 18 in his last three starts with 18 K’s in the process. My breakdown concern is tied specifically Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna who both had an OPS of over .900 against left-handed pitching last season. All it will take is those two going off and his night is over early.

Yu Darvish, Cubs 9.3K:

I will be quick with this last one, everyone knows he has elite talent, but he is incredibly volatile. It appears that he found his rhythm in the second half of last year and people are likely looking past him if they pay up so he’s in a unique position to give you 60 plus points at sub eight percent ownership which is hard to pass up in a GPP.

*Two quick things before I breakdown hitters, when I am talking about stacks, I largely mean for GPP’s, it is not always optimal when it comes to cash games to stack multiple people from one team. If playing cash limit your exposure and just go with the best plays from the best games. It reduces your long-term volatility in cash game formats. With that said:

MLB Stacks and Bats

Chalk

Red Sox (6.2 implied total): Top stack after last night. No reason to not do it again. Keep an eye on Alex Verdugo’s status. He is 2.3k on FanDuel and he may go under owned because he did not play last night.

Cash: Martinez, Devers, Benintendi, Verdugo GPP: Yes

Astros (6.1 implied total): Stilldon’t know what’s going to happen now with them (how much did the cheatinghelp) but they came out hot scoring eight runs against the Mariners and nowthey get Taijuan Walker who’s pitch a total of 14 mediocre innings in the lasttwo seasons.

Cash: Altuve, Brantley, Springer GPP: Bregman, Correa, Gurriel

Indians (5.6 implied total): They didnot do much offensively in their first game, but the Royals are not likely torepeat that with Brady Singer making his first start today. His toughestcompetition was in AA ball where he was sporting a 3.47 ERA and 1.24 whip over10 starts. He may get through the rotation once just out of luck, but I see himgetting knocked around badly.

Cash: Ramirez, Lindor GPP: Mercado, Santana

Twins (5.0 implied total): Donot know how I almost forgot the Twins. I will be quick. Keuchel is not what heonce was, and Twins hit left-handed pitching…. Hard

Cash: Kepler, Cruz, Polanco, Donaldson GPP: Any right-handed bat

Potential lower owned stacks:

White Sox (4.6 Implied total): Who in the world is Randy Dobnak and why is Vegas saying the Sox are only scoring 4.6 runs against him? Rich Hill is going to miss his start so I think this is mispricing on Vegas’s part. Moncada is already mashing and I think people are going to lean heavier on the Twins bats leaving a leveraged position with better pricing.

Cash: Moncada, Abreu, Roberts GPP: Encarnacion, Jimenez

Braves (4.5 implied total): Ialready touched on this one with Albies and Acuna having .900 ops against LHP.Clearly, they can lay an egg as evidenced last night but a 3 player, low ownedstack will create some serious separation in your large field tournaments

Cash: Acuna, Albies GPP: Freeman, Swanson

Favorite Stack:

Cash: Red Sox

GPP: White Sox

Favorite Pitcher:

Cash: Castillo

GPP: Wheeler

Under owned Stud: Ronald Acuna JR.

Sneaky Play: AlexVerdugo/Luis Roberts

Home Run Call: Michael Brantley

Thanks for taking the time to look through my breakdown for today’s FanDuel main slate. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord Chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB GPP Picks 7/25 Slate

billyr011199@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by billyr011199@gmail.com

MLB GPP Picks 7/25 Slate

In this article I will be breaking down MLB GPP picks 7/25 slate. I will hit a few players from each position. If I am interested in a player on only one site, I will be site specific. I will be using DraftKings pricing for this article.

I am extremely happy that sports have returned and am ready to breakdown this 11 game MLB slate for Saturday afternoon. Chalk J.D Martinez hit again last night against an awful Orioles squad, same scenario will be in play tonight as Martinez will face Alex Cobb. As of now weather does not appear to be an issue for the second consecutive day. Don’t forget to join myself and the rest of the WinDaily staff in the discord chat rooms, as we breakdown the slate even further when starting lineups get solidified.

Pitchers – MLB GPP picks 7/25 slate

ZackWheeler – ($10,100)

I will goright back to a Phillies pitcher even though Nola wasn’t the best play lastnight. Wheeler’s best pitch to right handed batters is his slider, and the Marlinshave a ton of right handed bats. The Marlins entire lineup has a strikeoutpercentage of more than 20% against sliders last season. Only one Marlin isbelow 20% strikeout rate against curveballs as well, so this should be anamazing matchup even though Nola failed to hit value last night.

Lance McCullers– ($8,500)

Seattle ranout a lineup with six left-handed hitters last night, that screams Lance McCullers.Every season in the MLB McCullers has had a higher strikeout percentage againstleft-handed batters, the lowest percentage being 27.5%. Even though McCullersmissed last season, he has been excellent against lefties throughout his career.Facing a young Seattle offense should allow McCullers to have a successful returnto the diamond.

Jon Gray –($8,100)

Gray keepsthe ball on the ground with a 51.3% ground ball rate, which we love forpitchers in MLB DFS. He also had a strikeout rate of 24.5% last season,including that with the seven high strikeout hitters in this Texas lineup heshould be in a spot for success.

Dylan Bundy– ($7,700)

Bundy has a magnificentslider that is getting a swing rate of 27% against righties and 20% againstlefties. He will be facing Oakland who has seven guys in their lineup that hada strikeout percentage above 30 last season against sliders. His downfall hasbeen the homerun, but he’s playing in a big MLB ball park with loads of strikeoutupside.

Catcher

MitchGarver – ($5,300)

In the sectionbelow I tell you how I don’t spend up for catchers unless the numbers are toogood to pass up, that’s the case here. Garver absolutely tears up lefties with anISO of .415, a wOBA of .469, flyball rate of 53.8%, and hard hit rate at 57.7%.If you can find the salary to get to Garver this is a tough spot not to playhim.

WilsonRamos – ($3,100)

None of hisnumbers will just jump off the page at you but he’s a very good veteran hitter,with a low strikeout rate, facing a lefty with too cheap of a price tag on thisMLB slate. Catcher is typically my last position filled that is just how I constructmy lineups. I typically don’t roll out the high-end catchers so if you’relooking for a salary saver look at Ramos.

1^stBase

MitchMoreland – ( $4,300)

Moreland didn’tstart opening day since they squared off against a left, he should start todaythough. I may fade J.D Martinez if he approaches above 20-30 percent today but Istill want Red Sox exposure against a very vulnerable Alex Cobb. Moreland onlyhas a 10% soft hit percent against righties, leaving 90 percent for medium andhard hit balls. He hits knuckle curves well with an ISO of .263 and hard hitpercent of 41.18%. and the short porch in right at Fenway he should be in linefor a solid day.

RhysHoskins – ($4,200)

We got alefty on the mound in this game that struggles mightily against righties,including a lovely flyball rate of 55.8%. Hoskins loves left-handed pitching ashe has a flyball rate of 48% and a hard-hit rate of 54% those numbers arefantastic to predict a homer. This is also an extremely comfortable price topay for a guy with massive homerun upside here.

2^ndbase

OzzieAlbies – ($4,700)

Ozzie isexcellent against left-handed pitching he has an outstanding .451 wOBA, only12% strikeout rate, and his contact percentage is 83%. He only has 10% soft hitpercentage against lefties leaving 90% for medium and hard-hit baseballs. Ozziehas a good chance at hitting value with this left-handed pitching.

JasonKipnis – ($3,300)

He must playfirst so make sure you check your MLB team lineups, David Ross said Kipnis andHoerner will split time at second. Its another spot where Kipnis only has asoft hit percent of 12% leaving 88 for medium and hard hit. Add to that aflyball rate of 43.5% against a pitcher that is brutal against lefties, Kipnisshould pay off this price tag if he plays.

3^rdbase

MiguelSano – ($4,800)

This pick isnot for the faint of heart and not for those that don’t like high risk. Sanostrikes out a ton we all know that, but his soft hit percentage is only 4.5%,an ISO of .367, and wOBA of .408 versus left handed pitching. I’ll take acouple shots at Sano here.

Matt Carpenter($3,700)

Matching upagainst Trevor Williams a pitcher that has issues with left-handed bats. He hasa soft hit percentage of just 13.7% against lefties, along with that is a strikeout rate of just 12.5%. Carpenter has only a 9.8% soft hit rate againstrighties leaving 90% for medium to hard hit. Williams is clearly worse againstlefties in nearly every category, should be a great day for Cardinals lefties.

Shortstop

CarlosCorrea – ($4,700)

There isnothing crazy special here I just want some Astros facing a pitcher that hasonly pitched in four games in the last two MLB season combined. After two seasonsoff I think Walker will need a couple outings to adjust and get things backfully. Correa also has the second highest ISO on the team against righties at.307.

Jean Segura– ($3,600)

Now Seguraisn’t a power hitter but I mentioned in the Hoskins section that righties hit CalebSmith well. Segura puts the ball in play and has an exceptionally low strikeoutrate of 11%. The Phillies should put up more than two runs in this game and I alsodon’t mind Scott Kingery as more of a power bat around this same price and sameteam.

Outfielders

CodyBellinger – ($5,300)

Bellinger isthe Dodgers leader in fly ball percentage and in hard hit percentage againstrighties which is why I chose him. Stack Dodgers lefties if you can afford it, oddsare you’ll hear me say that a ton this season. Samardzija had a hard-hitpercent of 40% along with a fly ball rate of 47%. Bellinger has a giant ISO of.328 against righties. This is no secret play but it wont be much longer untilBellinger blasts his first of the season.

LourdesGurriel Jr. – ($4,600)

Simple wayto put it Gurriel smashes lefties, with 114 plater appearances against leftieslast season he had a .367 ISO, .406 wOBA, and a 44% hard hit. With a 43.1%flyball rate against lefties, this seems like a good spot for a potentialGurriel homerun at a climate-controlled Tropicana Field. After missing the MLBseason opener ownership should be low as well.

KyleSchwarber – ($4,500)
The Cubs are facingCorbin Burnes who didn’t have the best season last year. I like the Cubs as astack on today’s MLB slate, but give an advantage to the lefties in the lineup.Burnes has a 47.7% hard hit rate, average exit velocity above 90mph, an ISO of.373 against lefties. Schwarber rakes righties with an ISO of .298 and a hard-hitpercentage of 41.7%.

YoenisCespedes – ($3,600)

Cespedes missedall of last years MLB season and only completed 38 games the season prior. So,although not a lot of recent data on him we know what kind of player he is. He ispriced way too cheap. He Is facing a left-handed pitcher and hit a bomb in hisfirst game back to give the Mets a 1-0 win. I’ll take him at this price before Itincreases.

Thanks for reading my article on MLB GPP picks 7/25 slate. That will wrap it up for this 11 game afternoon slate. It looks like we should have great weather throughout most of these games, making for a beautiful afternoon of Saturday baseball. We are happy that sports are back and the DFS grind is back in full swing. Jump in the Discord chat to join myself and the WinDaily staff for late news and later game lineup locks and adjustments. Thanks for reading my content and best of luck everyone!

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Saturday’s Aces and Bases

TimmySigs 5 years ago

written by TimmySigs

MLB DFS season is finally here and so is the Aces and Bases from Win Daily Sports. The July 25th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main 11-game MLB DFS slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Corbin Burnes ($6,200 DK / $5,700 FD)

Alright, it’s risky, but he’s damn-near free. Burnes has always been a highly-touted prospect with ELITE swing-and-miss stuff. The problem is, he’s capable of walking the entire lineup and being pulled after two innings. Burnes posted a ridiculous 12.9 K/9 in his inconsistent 2019 season so you always need to keep an eye on him when he’s slated to start.

He’s been lights out thus far in the Brewers’ “Summer Training” and exhibition match-ups and should offer a ton of upside at a low price tag against a Cubs’ lineup that is projected for over a 21% K-rate.

Honorable Mention: Mike Minor

Top Ace(s) FanDuel: Mike Clevinger ($10,400 FD) | Luis Castillo ($9,800 FD) | Lance McCullers ($8,500 DK / $8,000 FD)

Clevinger, Castillo, and McCullers have juicy match ups for their opening performance of the 2020 season. Clevinger is facing off against a feeble Royals offense that shouldn’t put up much of a fight as a now healthy Clevinger should mow down batters on Saturday afternoon (just like Bieber did yesterday).

Staying in the AL central for opponents, Castillo has a uninspiring Tiger lineup that finished the 2019 campaign with a team .240 BA and a sad .294 OBP. Expect Castillo to feed the big cats a steady diet of changeups and produce strikeouts.

McCullers is simply priced way too low going up against a Seattle with an implied total of just 3.45 runs and a slate-high projected K-rate of over 24%. Keep this one simple and use McCullers.

Honorable Mention: Zach Wheeler ($10,100 DK / $9,000 FD)

Punt Play: Alex Wood ($7,800 DK / $7,600 FD)

Alex wood was sitting below 90mph with his fastball last year, and keeping it in the zone about 50% it was hit around quite a bit. Woods has a reported uptick in velo this year which wood (heh) make the fastball much more appealing. His changeup and curve were useful last year, with his curveball just being a few swinging strike points lower (48% in 2020 to 54% in 2017) than his All-Star 2017 season. This looks like some good value against a woeful SF lineup.

Top Fade: Steven Strasburg ($10,000 DK / $ 9,900 FD)

The Nationals are coming off the ultimate high of winning it all in 2019, and Strasburg is primed for another great season, but this Yankee lineup is one to fade all season. I am staying away from the high price and deadly lineup.

Honorable Mention: Lance McCullers

MLB DFS: The Bases

On an 11-game slate, there are a ton of different ways to build your offense. Personally, I’m going to take a stand on a few offenses and call it a day. If you’re play MME style of GPPs, you can always get some exposure to more offenses, but for 3-Entry Max and Single Entry GPPs, I’m going to battle with a very limited player pool, as I really want to pick on a couple of starting pitchers and weaker bullpens.

We all know the importance of stacking when play MLB DFS GPPs, so here are my top stacks for the Saturday main slate.

Top Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers – The dodgers get to beat up the Giants staff this week, the prices will be high, but with great value in pitching on the board over the weekend its possible to get a few of these bats in. Believe me, you want to get some of these bats in against SF.
Houston Astros – The Astros face Taijuan Walker and I can’t think of anything positive to say about him. Houston feasts on fastballs and Walkers is bad, he also games a unreliable split finger that has a career -16pVal. Be aware of crooked numbers early and often courtesy of the Houston bats.

Value Stacks

Cincinnati Reds (FanDuel) – I love this reds team and the middle of their lineup is full of hitters that just take good at bats and have power to boot. With the additions of Castellanos and Moustakas the have as much fire power as they need.
Cleveland Indians (FanDuel) – Sticking with the Franmil Reyes and the tribe over the weekend. You know who else to play from this Cleveland offense, but you can always sneak in salary savers like Domingo Santana, Jordan Luplow, and Cesar Hernandez if you need salary elsewhere.

Good luck to all on this opening weekend!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter @TimmySigs and be sure to sign up for a ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups – July 24

Peter dremonas 5 years ago

written by Peter dremonas

FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups: Opening Day 2020 Recap

Before we talk about FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups – July 24, lets recap Opening Day *COVID 2020. It was predictably unpredictable. There were storm threats in the Washington, D.C. area causing many FanDuel MLB players to worry the slate could get cancelled.

Fortunately, the Nats and Yankees were able to start on time, and finished, but the game was called after the 5th inning, due mostly to the dugouts flooding along with a second line of storms (not originally visible on radar). To finish the game, they would’ve had to start play again after midnight.

So, it was called, and the Yankees won 4-1 in just five innings. However, the game in Los Angeles was played through a complete nine innings, and was a LOT of fun to watch!

Still, the Dodgers and Giants weren’t able to avoid fantasy baseball controversy on Thursday. With under an hour until MLB DFS lock, the Dodgers announced they suddenly put Clayton Kershaw on the IL, with a back issue.

Our ‘safe’ FanDuel MLB arm now off the board, and many of us were scrambling. However, if you followed our MLB chat on DISCORD, you likely got some good pre-lock advice.

Wilmer Flores was no longer as attractive of a play, now facing a right-handed starter for the Dodgers. So, I made a pivot move to Tyler Wade at 2B, for only $2,000 on FanDuel MLB…that’s actually $100 CHEAPER than Flores. Suddenly, we had an even better value play!

Wade delivered, getting a single and walk along with a run scored in just five innings. So, for only $2K, we got 9.2 FanDuel MLB points. I’ll take that EVERY SLATE!

Many of our WinDaily content providers harped on the fact that Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole were your top plays. Honestly, I felt Cole was the best of the four arms on the mound Thursday night.

But, even with four walks and four earned runs, Max as the best hurler, piling up 37 FanDuel MLB points due to his eleven strikeouts in just 5.1 innings. Scherzer is back folks, and he should be high on your board every outing!

Cole was a solid play, but 33 FanDuel MLB points was disappointing, considering the expectations. But, our Dodgers stack paid off, depending on who you had in your four-man offensive group.

Cody Bellinger was disappointing, with only nine points on top of a $4.5K salary. But, if you had Kike Hernandez in your lineup, for only $2.6K, he piled up 44.9 FanDuel MLB points with a home run, five RBI’s, and two runs. Hernandez is also someone to watch for fantasy baseball this season.

Speaking of players to watch, Giancarlo Stanton is clearly ‘back’, and Aaron Judge looks enormously smooth last night as well.

Alright, enough about Opening Day, lets start looking at our options for a more exciting, and bigger, day 2 of the 2020 FanDuel MLB season!

FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups – July 24

For the FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups – July 24, the schedule starts at 4:10pm ET in New York, on Friday afternoon. The Mets are hosting the Braves. That’s follow with two more games before 7PM ET, when the FanDuel MLB Main slate begins.

I’m going to focus mostly on the Main slate, as that has more options. However, I’ll make a few comments for those of you excited to play an ‘All Day’ or ‘Early Only’ lineup, because you’re some sort of Mets or Reds homer, and you know Sonny Gray and Jacob deGrom are on the mound!

FanDuel MLB: Top Pitching Plays

For the All Day slate, starting at 4:10pm, Jacob deGrom ($10,700) is by far the most attractive play at pitcher. The Braves aren’t typically a lineup I’d target any pitcher against, but this match-up actually sets up well for a good deGrom fantasy baseball day.

The Braves have a 97 wRC+ against RHP’s away from Atlanta. That’s roughly mediocre. To give you an idea of where that lands them, 10th in MLB, it’s just behind the Mets offense, in the same situation.

Name	Team	K/9	HR/9	K%	BB%	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	ERA	xFIP
Jacob deGrom	Mets	11.25	0.84	31.70%	5.50%	0.205	0.97	0.282	2.43	3.11
Justin Verlander	Astros	12.11	1.45	35.40%	5.00%	0.171	0.80	0.218	2.58	3.18
Shane Bieber	Indians	10.88	1.30	30.20%	4.70%	0.229	1.05	0.296	3.28	3.23
Charlie Morton	Rays	11.1	0.69	30.40%	7.20%	0.214	1.08	0.298	3.05	3.28
Hyun-Jin Ryu	Dodgers	8.03	0.84	22.50%	3.30%	0.23	1.01	0.278	2.32	3.32

deGrom has the lowest xFIP (3.11), during the 2019 season, of all starting pitchers in this slate. And this is a STRONG SP slate!

Jake is fanning hitters at nearly a 32% rate, second highest in this slate, but is also giving up only 0.84 home runs per nine innings, one of the lowest rates and significantly lower than Justin Verlander ($11,200).

Speaking of Verlander, he’s in a similar situation to deGrom, in that he’s facing a mediocre offense against RHP’s on the road, has a high K-rate, but Justin is more likely to give up bombs and runs.

Comparing to the results last night, while Verlander is very much like a Scherzer, piling up FanDuel MLB points with K’s, deGrom will give you most of those points, while also very likely adding points with low earned runs and a win.

So, you’re getting nearly the same amount of points for $500 cheaper on FanDuel MLB. If you’re playing the All Day slate, find a way to get deGrom in your lineup!

Name	Team	K/9	HR/9	K%	BB%	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	ERA	xFIP
Charlie Morton	Rays	11.1	0.69	30.40%	7.20%	0.214	1.08	0.298	3.05	3.28
Hyun-Jin Ryu	Dodgers	8.03	0.84	22.50%	3.30%	0.23	1.01	0.278	2.32	3.32
Sonny Gray	Reds	10.52	0.87	29.00%	9.60%	0.193	1.08	0.255	2.87	3.65
Matthew Boyd	Tigers	11.56	1.89	30.20%	6.40%	0.244	1.23	0.307	4.56	3.88

For the ‘Early Only’ slate, you have to play Sonny Gray ($9,700) at home against the Tigers. Detroit bats have an insanely high 27.4% K-rate in 2019 against RHP’s on the road.

Meanwhile, Gray’s 29% K-rate suggests he’s going to have near, or at, double-digits in strikeouts. Along with a win, Gray should easily be the top SP in the ‘Early Only’ slate.

That said, Gray is also a solid pivot from deGrom, if you’re looking for lower ownership and need another $1K to use for offense in the All Day slate.

Name	Team	K/9	HR/9	K%	BB%	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	ERA	xFIP
Justin Verlander	Astros	12.11	1.45	35.40%	5.00%	0.171	0.80	0.218	2.58	3.18
Shane Bieber	Indians	10.88	1.30	30.20%	4.70%	0.229	1.05	0.296	3.28	3.23
Lucas Giolito	White Sox	11.62	1.22	32.30%	8.10%	0.203	1.06	0.273	3.41	3.66

For the Main slate, let’s not get cute. There are some interesting cheaper ‘value’ plays you could consider, but there’s enough good pitchers in this slate that you can snag a top play with sub 20% ownership.

We already talked about Verlander, he’s possibly the best overall fantasy baseball play on Friday night. But, Shane Bieber ($10,200) and Lucas Giolito ($9,500) are potentially better values in the Main slate.

Unfortunately, Giolito is facing a Twins offense who had a 120 wRC+ and very low 20.7% K-rate when facing RHP’s on the road. In fact, the Twins are honestly a solid offense to consider stacking, even against Lucas, who was one of the best MLB DFS pitchers in the second half of 2019.

That leads us to Bieber. Shane had a solid 3.23 xFIP last season, and very good 30.2% K-rate. Bieber also had a low 1.05 WHIP, which matches up well to the Royals terrible 86 wRC+ on the road against RHP’s like Bieber.

Also, the Royals 25.4% K-rate in this scenario was the 7th worst in MLB last season. Don’t overthink the SP position for the main slate, it’s Verlander or Bieber, and Shane gives you the better plays on offense.

Quick Recap on SPs:

All Day – deGrom

Early Only – Gray

Main Slate – Bieber

And of course Verlander is viable in All Day and the Main Slate.

FanDuel MLB: Hitting Stacks, Value, and Best Plays

Name	Team	K/9	HR/9	K%	BB%	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	ERA	xFIP	Opponent
Jeff Samardzija	Giants	6.95	1.39	18.90%	6.60%	0.222	1.11	0.24	3.52	5.02	Dodgers
Marco Gonzales	Mariners	6.52	1.02	17.00%	6.50%	0.261	1.31	0.295	3.99	5.11	Astros
Danny Duffy	Royals	7.92	1.45	20.70%	8.30%	0.25	1.31	0.285	4.34	5.14	Indians
Sandy Alcantara	Marlins	6.89	1.05	18.00%	9.70%	0.239	1.32	0.271	3.88	5.17	Phillies

Alright, of the starting pitchers in the All Day and Main slates, Alcantara, Duffy, Gonzales, and Samardzija (aka ‘Shark’) are the four worst SP ini those slates.

That lines us up to consider stacking the Phillies, Indians, Astros, and Dodgers. That’s a pretty wide range of talented fantasy baseball options.

At first I was worried about affordability, because several of these teams have star players who often come with large FanDuel MLB price-tags, because they’re popular picks.

However, there are affordable stacks in all of these lineups. For example, Cesar Hernandez ($2,500) 2B is likely leading off for the Indians, and he should be followed by Jose Ramirez ($3,500) 3B. There’s a lot of speed and power in that combo.

While Bryce Harper ($3,900) OF and Rhys Hoskins ($3,400) 1B are attractive power bats in this slate, a cheaper Andrew McCutchen ($2,800) OF re-entering the Phillies lineup likely at lead-off, makes the Phillies top of the lineup more affordable.

Probably one of the most underrated bats in the Astros lineup, is Michael Brantley ($2,900) OF. Brantley doesn’t have a ton of power, but he gets on base often and has plenty of speed. With a run or a couple of RBI’s Brantley is a cheap double-digit FanDuel MLB play.

Finally, the Dodgers are often consistently one of the best MLB DFS stacks over the last couple of years. With Shark on the mound, that continues today. A.J. Pollock ($2,900) OF and Corey Seager ($3,200) SS are two mid-salary range plays I like to blend in with the bigger star-power bats in that lineup.

FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups – July 24 Summary

So, for the All Day slate, we’re looking at deGrom as our top pitching play, while considering Verlander for both All Day and the Main slate. Sonny Gray is our favorite option for the smaller ‘Early Only’ FanDuel MLB slate, and Bieber and Giolito are also attractive SP’s for the Main slate.

For the All Day and Main slate offensive positions, we like the Phillies, Indians, Astros, and Dodgers. They may sound expensive, but there are plenty of great value plays in each of those lineups.

If you’re playing the smaller ‘Early Only’ Fan Duel MLB slate, just don’t stack the Tigers, and play any decent lineup along with Gray as your SP.

Thanks for checking out this article on FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups – July 24! Our team will continue to bring you daily content, tools, and projections and a community that will help you make this your best MLB season yet…and…OH, btw, use promo code “23” and you can join for your first month for just 23 CENTS. Literally cents.

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5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

7.24 MLB Full Slate Breakdown

Joe Biewer 5 years ago

written by Joe Biewer

7.24 MLB Full Slate Breakdown

Here is a 7.24 MLB Full Slate Breakdown for you to enjoy! Get your research in early and start making those lineups for the DraftKings AND FanDuel Milly Makers!

Make sure to check out more MLB content on WinDailySports.com, follow us on Twitter @WinDailySports and @JbiewerDFS, and hop into our Expert Chat to talk one on one with our DFS pros!

5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports

7.23 MLB Slate Overview| Win Daily Show

Michael Rasile 5 years ago

written by Michael Rasile

7.23 MLB Slate Overview| Win Daily Show

Baseball is finally back and we have a 7.23 MLB Slate Overview for you to enjoy! Ghost (@DFS_Ghost) and Michael (@MichaelRasile1) chat about the two game slate for 7.23 on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Yankees vs. Nationals and the Dodgers vs. Giants! Which pitchers to choose with only 4? Which teams are we stacking, and why? But really, how many Dodgers can we fit in a lineup, and how!

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5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups: Opening Day 2020 (*COVID)

Peter dremonas 5 years ago

written by Peter dremonas

FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups for Thursday, July 23

It’s here! It’s finally here! This is really happening…I think. It IS 2020, so who the hell knows what happens next. But, it feels like this really could happen. After almost FOUR MONTHS of waiting, we now have a MLB Opening Day set for Thursday, July 23rd. Which means, we finally have FanDuel MLB in 2020!

We’re safe to begin discussing top pitching plays or sneaky SP value moves for FanDuel MLB. We can talk about our favorite FanDuel MLB stacks again, value nuggets to make great plays affordable, and players most likely to hit bombs!

If feels so great to pour over advanced MLB statistics again, digging for the right FanDuel MLB GPP moves, hoping no one else found them. Or, who’s the chalk for cash games and is that THE route I want to take?

Unfortunately, we only have two games on Thursday night, so frankly, the options do feel quite limited. However, we do have some appealing FanDuel MLB options, like a $3 buy-in for $1M payout.

At the time of writing this article, there are still plenty of spots open in the $1M tournament. Also, I haven’t seen this many DFS multipliers available in many months! Lastly, I was also given free money from FanDuel, to spend on MLB…so, that’s always a plus! Check to see if you got some too!

Alright, alright, alright…let’s get to the Daily Lineup top plays of the slate.

FanDuel MLB: Top Pitching Plays

Honestly, Friday’s Main FanDuel MLB slate will be more fun to play. While we have some great starting pitchers on the mound to start the season this Thursday night, picking between just four pitchers makes differentiating your lineup for GPP or Cash, quite difficult.

The top three starting pitchers are obvious, Gerrit Cole ($11,400), Max Scherzer ($10,700), and Clayton Kershaw ($10,300). FanDuel MLB has them priced in the correct order.

Cole was, arguably, the best MLB DFS pitcher last season, Scherzer has a competing K-rate, and Kershaw had a great second half of 2019, but still struggles at time (compared to his career).

It may be July, but I did look at the first half stats of last season because it often takes time for some pitchers to hit their stride.

Interestingly, Max started the season well (2.83 xFIP) and struggled in the second half (4.81 xFIP) of the season. Although, some of that was due to injury but also, likely, wear and tear from the 1st half of the season.

Cole started the season almost as well as Max, then became one of the hardest pitchers in baseball to hit, during the second half of 2019. So, while Mad Max often starts well, Cole is still the better overall pitcher.

Also, Scherzer was violently crushed by Phillies bats in his ‘camp’ debut late last week. That worries me. Max is an incredible competitor and likely will bounce back, but the Yankees offense stacks up better compared to the Phillies.

For GPP, the obvious pivot from ‘great’ is Cueto. But, over each of the four careers, Cueto’s overall metrics are nowhere near close to any of the top three picks. He’s worth a flier, but likely a better offensive stacking target (will get to that in a minute).

This leads me to Kershaw as a potential move from Cole. As a Nats fan, it’s very difficult to suggest Cole or Clayton have a better outing than Max to open this season. And, Kershaw’s xFIP, and overall metrics, aren’t as good as Max’s over the last two seasons.

However, Cole should be the top MLB DFS play, with Kershaw as a second, safer option. Scherzer is the riskier play, but still has high upside. And, Cueto is your desperate GPP move.

Scherzer’s WHIP and low HR/FB rate early last season were the best in baseball. But, from the second half of the season, into this preseason and ‘camp’ period, we’ve seen a higher WHIP and HR/9 inning rate. Hence the risk.

So, here’s how I’d break down the SP plays for FanDuel MLB:

Cash: Cole, top play, or Kershaw, safe play.

GPP: Scherzer or Cueto. It’s likely Scherzer and Cueto have the lowest ownership in most slates, oddly with Cueto having higher ownership in GPP. Of the two, Scherzer is oddly somehow the sneakier GPP pick.

FanDuel MLB: Hitting Stacks, Value, and Best Plays

Picking your SP for Cash or GPP, will help you define your offensive focus for the rest of your roster.

Newbie note, you shouldn’t pick too many, or any, offensive players facing your SP. However, there are some caveats.

They’re going to be chalky, but the Dodgers are the glaring obvious offensive stack play for this slate.

Even better, with Cueto as a RHP, I’d focus mostly on finding a way to plug Corey Seager ($3,200) SS, Joc Pederson ($2,800) OF, and Cody Bellinger ($4,500) OF into your lineups. With some of our value plays, you can even have these three in the same lineup as Cole, for a SP pick. Yes, really!

Now, you can continue to focus on lefties against Cueto, but Justin Turner ($3,100) 3B is a right-handed bat likely slated in third position of the Dodgers lineup.

If the Dodgers get hot, Turner is likely a part of the production, and still worth a solid mid-range salary to complete your Dodgers stack.

If you have a cheap enough SP, and a boat-load of value in the rest of your offensive picks, you should also consider Max Muncy ($3,900) 1B to complete your Dodgers stack. However, between Muncy and Bellinger, Cody is your safer play.

To afford some of the big bats with the expensive arms, we’re going to need offensive value plays. There’s plenty in this slate, which suddenly makes the Opening Day for FanDuel MLB more interesting.

First of all, as our Win Daily Sport MLB DFS buddy Brian Tulloch mentions in his MLB DFS Picks and Pivots post, Wilmer Flores ($2,100) is a ‘must have’ when facing lefty bats.

To summarize a different way, if Flores only faced right-handed pitchers, he’d never see the light of day in the majors. However, if he only faced lefty pitchers, he’d likely be a hall of fame hitter. The kid crushes lefties! And, he’s dirt-cheap in this slate (likely intentional).

Another, more sneaky, value play is Brett Gardner ($2,700) OF likely hitting 3rd in a great Yankees lineup with a lefty bat against Scherzer. There’s risk here. In 19 plate appearances, Gardner struck out five times, and reached base six times with three walks and three singles.

Those aren’t sexy stats, but they haven’t faced each other in five years, and all three of Gardner’s hits (and one walk) were within his last eight plate appearances against Scherzer, once with the Nats. This is a potential sneaky low-ownership value play in a very obvious slate.

Also, while we love Cole for this small slate, there are two big Nationals Caveats I have to consider. First of all, Howie Kendrick ($2,500) 2B is quite possibly the most underrated DH in the National league for this COVID season.

Kendrick has been nearly the sole offensive production for the Nats during camp, and the righty could be a sneaky value play at 2B or Utility for FanDuel MLB. Kendrick is 2-6 with a double and 3 RBI’s in his last two games facing Cole. And he’s been red-hot to start this July season.

From the other side of the plate, and with Eric Thames ($2,400) 1B is now a National. He’s also a lefty monster bomb bat facing a right-handed pitcher. But, again Cole is one of the top DFS MLB pitchers.

Still, one thing we haven’t really covered yet (mostly b/c I think all pitchers are in the same situation and therefore it doesn’t impact the SP play much), is that the Starting Pitchers will likely get less time on the mound for a 60-game season in MLB.

So, while guys like Thames and Kendrick may seem counter to the Cole top play at pitcher, especially for cash games, it’s potentially still a good offensive pick for the slate.

We likely won’t see Cole on the mound for more than five innings, which means Thames and Kendrick will get a shot at any of the other Yankees relief pitchers. And…there are holes there!

FanDuel MLB Opening Day 2020 Season (*COVID) Summary

Cole is your best overall SP, but Kershaw will help you differentiate at least with GPP plays, and potentially make some sneaky moves into the top cash-game slots.

Cueto is likely going to be a popular GPP desperate grab, but Scherzer is oddly your better GPP play for this slate.

With that in mind, remember that none of these pitchers may pitch more than five innings, but they’re all in a similar position. That point is mute for MLB DFS.

For offense, you can’t ignore the chalky Dodgers in a small slate like this. Just pack it up, water it down, and drink the chalk for the night!

But there are several interesting offensive differentiations to consider, especially for value. Flores is an obvious top value play, but not all MLB DFS players are on to that pick.

Also, guys like Kendrick, Gardner, and Thames are sneaky plays as well. Any one, or all three, could explode your lineup to a top spot with just one at-bat.

Our team is ready to bring you daily content, tools, and projections and a community that will help you make this your best MLB season yet…and…OH, btw, use promo code “23” and you can join for your first month for just 23 CENTS. Literally cents.

Also, make sure to check out WinDailySports.com for more content in the near future, follow me me on Twitter @MattyMcMatt17 and our team at @WinDailySports, and hop into our Expert Chat for one on one conversations!

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB Premium

MLB DFS: Friday’s Aces and Bases

brgrewe@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

MLB DFS season is finally here and so is the inaugural Aces and Bases from Win Daily Sports. The July 24th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main 11-game MLB DFS slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Chris Paddack ($8,600 DK / $8,900 FD)

Chris Paddack is one of the best young arms in the game and gets to make his 2020 debut in the pitcher-friendly, Petco Park (without a pitch-count). Paddack is currently a (-130) favorite and was absolutely DOMINATE at home in 2019 (which is really all the data we have on Paddack for Friday’s slate) supporting the following:

.188 Batting AVG Against
.235 wOBA
28% K-Rate

Paddack will face off against a respectable Arizona Diamondbacks lineup who’s projected K-Rate sits right around 21%. I don’t expect a lot of MLB DFS ownership going towards the Padres’ Ace on Friday, so I’ll be more than happy to have a lot of exposure to Paddack. This price tag also helps you jam in some of our top stacks you’ll see below.

Honorable Mention: German Marquez

Top Ace(s): Shane Bieber ($10,300 DK / $10,200 FD) & Jack Flaherty ($9,000 DK / $10,500 FD)

I don’t need to write a whole lot about Bieber (-215) and Flaherty (-200) as they’re going up against arguably the two worst offenses in baseball (Kansas City and Pittsburgh). They’re both coming off of outstanding breakout seasons and should have no issues racking up strikeouts and hitting value against these minor league lineups opposing them.

Both pitchers are hefty favorites in terms of Vegas odds and make for excellent cash-game and GPP pitchers. On FanDuel, I’m more likely to roll out Bieber due to the savings, but on DraftKings, Flaherty’s $9K price tag is unbelievably affordable.

Honorable Mention: Aaron Nola, Justin Verlander

Punt Play: Joe Musgrove ($6,900 DK / $6,500 FD)

Musgrove’s price is enough to intrigue me for some of my GPP builds. Joe Musgrove and the Pirates are a big underdog (+179) on the road in St. Louis but that doesn’t take him out of my player pool at this price. I highly doubt anyone plays Musgrove (especially on FanDuel) and I’m not quite sure why.

This aging, St. Louis lineup lacking in power (in addition to a projected 21% strikeout rate) does not scare me one bit. If Musgrove can continue to sit around a 9% Fly-Ball/Line-Drive rate like he did in 2019, his downside is rather limited. For sub $7K on both sites, give me some shares of Musgrove in order to jam in the top bats on this 11-game MLB DFS slate.

Honorable Mention: Brandon Woodruff, Sandy Alcantara

Top Fade: Nathan Eovaldi ($7,100 DK / $7,100 FD)

I’m expecting Eovaldi (-222) to be very high owned on Friday’s main slate (on both DFS outlets) and for that reason alone, I’m out. Eovaldi hasn’t gone deeper than six innings since early August of 2018 and I don’t see him going deeper than five innings on Friday in his first start of the season.

Yes, Baltimore may be terrible and Chris Davis being in the lineup probably gives Eovaldi two free strikeouts, but the rest of this lineup isn’t going to give up at-bats. I think Eovaldi is fine for cash games with the cheap price tag, heavy ownership and a big Vegas favorite, but I have no confidence in his GPP winning upside. FADE.

Honorable Mention: Ross Stripling

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers – Good luck being able to afford them unless you roll out Joe Musgrove and/or another punt pitcher, but there’s no arguing the appeal of the 2020 Dodgers. You can honestly stack any part of this offense… they’re that lethal (especially if Jeff Samardzija is on the bump).
Houston Astros – No surprise here. Whether or not they cheat, they’re likely to have the first or second highest implied team total going up against soft tossing Marco Gonzales. Gonzales gave up a LOT of fly balls and line drives with an exit velocity > 93MPH… that’s going to be a problem if he didn’t work on some things in the off-season.

Value Stacks

Boston Red Sox – Love this match-up against a dumpster fire pitching staff from Baltimore. It blows my mind how cheap this offense is going to be on Friday, which will allow you to roster the top pitchers on the slate. Guys like Jose Peraza, Michael Chavis, and Kevin Pillar offer a TON of salary relief if you plan on using some of the other main weapons in the Boston offense (J.D. Martinez, Devers, Bogaerts, etc.)
Cleveland Indians – Give me all of the Cleveland Indians on Friday and then even more Franmil Reyes. Reyes is going to hit a home run in his 2020 Cleveland Debut. You know who else to play from this Cleveland offense, but you can always sneak in salary savers like Domingo Santana, Jordan Luplow, and Cesar Hernandez if you need salary elsewhere.

Good luck to all on this opening weekend and be sure to check out one of the sharpest minds in MLB DFS, Brian Tulloch’s Picks and Pivots!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter @StixPicks and be sure to sign up for a ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

MLB DFS Strategy: Is BvP Real?

WIN 5 years ago

written by WIN

There may not be a bigger debate in the MLB DFS community than whether the idea of BvP is real or not. BvP has caused many arguments in the MLB DFS industry. Touts everywhere have had to draw a line in the sand and declare if they were on #TeamBvP or not.

What is BvP?

What is BvP? It stands for Batter vs Pitcher. Specifically it stands for a batter’s previous performance against a certain pitcher. While the past performance is indeed true, the question of using BvP in DFS goes much further. The real question is if a batter’s past performance against a certain pitcher is a predictor of what will happen in future match-ups. And if we should responsibly use the information for DFS lineup decisions.

So is it real?

So is BvP real in MLB DFS? The answer is it depends. While that is not a definitive answer, it is the right answer. Here is the truth about BvP: It can be used as a stat for lazy touts. These touts can easily reference BvP and it makes them look like they researched the match up and can recommend a player as a good play. But what we must ALWAYS remember is that correlation does not imply causation.

On the other hand, BvP can also be used by very informed touts who are able to better find the correlation and causation to the success for a named batter. To better understand the difference, lets take a look at two cases of a batter and his history against two pitchers.

Case 1: Mike Trout vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu

In his career against left-handed Hyun-Jin Ryu, Mike Trout is 0 – for – 10 with four strikeouts according to R o towire. If you are a strict BvP truther, there is no way you are building your DFS lineup around Mike Trout when Ryu is on the bump, right? But by now you should already be asking yourself if you should really be scared of Hyun-Jin Ryu.

According to FanGraphs, Trout had a .294 ISO, ,408 wOBA and a 161 wRC+ against southpaws in 2019. Sounds like Trout has had plenty of success against lefties so are we still buying the BvP numbers against Ryu?

While taking a look at Ryu’s 3.05 FIP and 3.44 xFIP versus righties in 2019 it is respective but certainly should not turn you immediately off Trout.

Ryu’s splits in 2019 courtesy of Fangraphs

And as you dig deeper into the numbers, specifically what Ryu’s pitch selection is, we will see that Trout is very likely long over due for some positive regression against the left-handed pitcher in their next match-up.

According to Brooks Baseball, Ryu throw a fourseam fastball 24% of the time to right-handed batters in 2019. The southpaw also throw a change-up 31% of the time to righties last season.

Trout Results and Averages courtesy of Brooks Baseball

And don’t you know it, Trout had a .300 ISO against fourseamers and a .556 ISO versus the change in 2019 according to Brooks Baseball. All of a sudden, Trout’s 0-for-10 BvP versus Ryu isn’t so intimidating is it? In this case the correlation just doesn’t fit the causation.

While this is probably another lesson for another day, but this is the perfect opportunity to get Trout at a lower ownership than normal because the lazy touts won’t think Trout is a slam dunk against Ryu because of a lousy 0-for-10 sample.

Case 2: Mike Trout vs. Felix Hernandez

When Felix Hernandez goes to sleep at night, he likely wakes up in a cold sweat courtesy of Mike Trout. The best player in baseball, and arguably MLB DFS, has had Hernandez’s number in their 88 at-bat lopsided battles.

Mike Trout’s Career Numbers Versus Felix Hernandez courtesy of Rotowire

The next time these two are to face-off, every DFS tout will be recommending Trout as perhaps the top play on the slate. And of course, they would be right. Consider though that many of those touts would just reference the BvP as the reason why. But once again, we will see that the correlation is not the causation. But instead, it is the type of pitcher that Hernandez is that leads to Trout’s success against him.

Mike Trout’s 2019 Splits Versus Power/Finesse Pitchers courtesy of Baseball Reference

Using the image above it is easy to see that Trout crushes against non-power pitchers as defined by Baseball Reference. And guess what? Hernandez hasn’t been a power pitcher in a long time.

Felix Hernandez’s MPH Numbers Over the Last Two Seasons according to Baseball Savant

In fact he has not averaged over 90 MPH on a pitch type in two seasons. So while Trout would be a great play next time he faces Hernandez, be sure to look past the BvP numbers and see the real reason why.

MLB DFS: BVP Conclusion

While using Mike Trout as an example might be extreme because he is the best hitter in baseball, none the less, these two examples should help you decide which side of the BvP battle you need to be on. You can use the same research process to debunk or confirm the use of a bad hitter with a good BvP history against a certain pitcher.

The lesson here is simple: Dig deeper into the match-ups and numbers. Simply make sure the correlation implies the causation before you buy the hype from lazy touts.

Be sure to check out our MLB Season-Long rankings!

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB Strategy: Stacking for Cash

David Jones 5 years ago

written by David Jones

Check out our MLB DFS Data-Driven Projections for FanDuel Hitters for Premium Gold Members.

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel play MLB DFS! Read about it here!

Tenacious Strategy Session: Stacking in MLB DFS

If you are completely new to MLB DFS or just need a reminder, you ALWAYS stack two teams. This means you want four hitters from two different teams to fill out your lineup. The only way I would possibly not do this is on a very short slate (ex. two-game slate, four teams).

An example of a two-team stack would be one pitcher, four Astro bats, and four Braves bats.

Why do you want to stack in MLB DFS? Why would you not try and pick the best player from each team like with NFL or NBA?

The answers are because of all scoring correlates for hitters in baseball. If a hitter gets an RBI you also want the runner(s) on the base(s) who are going to score. For example, if the bases are loaded and your hitter gets a grand slam you get a ton of points for the four RBIs and the home run which is great! However, if you don’t have the three players on the bases that cross home plate during the grand slam you are missing out on three hits (or walks, depending on how the bases got loaded) and the three runs (that get hit in by the grand slam slugger). Not only are you missing out on these points, but it’s more likely than not your competition stacked this team and got the points you are missing out on. Therefore while you are moving up the rankings, you are still getting passed by the people who stacked making it near impossible to get first place.

MLB DFS is very momentum dependent. This means if a pitcher is getting lit up momentum builds as players round the bases and the offense smells blood. Every batter wants a piece of the pitching and running up the score is on the table. Also, once a team is winning significantly, the bullpen is no longer putting in their best arms in an attempt to get a win. The BP may even let an unproven arm come in the game who is still developing and take his lumps while working through a high-pressure situation. This is a dream situation if you stacked against him.

How do I know who to stack in MLB DFS?

This is what I do. I pick my pitcher first. If your pitcher fails, you will most likely not be cashing so that should be your main focus. Once you have your pitcher write down your top six teams. I personally write down the starting lineup for each of the six teams I prefer and go through each eight/nine (depending on DH) hitters in the order they are batting. I cross out any batter that has bad (not average) stats against the pitcher (depending on if the pitcher is right-handed or left-handed). I mainly look at ISO, WOBA, Weather and Home Runs. I will glance at BvP (Batter vs Pitcher) but it is not something I focus on too heavily unless there is a clear advantage that has a long track record.

Once you have the hitters you are considering from your top two teams see if you can fit them in a lineup with the pitcher you have selected. If one of your hitting combos in your second favorite team is not fitting then it does not work. You are going to need to move on to your next favorite team. Continue going through your preferred teams until you find a clean fit of the hitters you like. If you can’t fit your favorite team, that also means your competition won’t be able to either. Baseball is a high variance sport. Chalk in baseball tends to fail more than any other sport in my opinion. I hardly ever play chalk in baseball because of this.

What order of the batting lineup should I stack in MLB DFS?

Try and clump your batters together best you can in MLB DFS. If you can take the 1-4 hitters that’s great. 2-5 works, 3-6 works and so on. You can also skip a player you don’t like and do something like 1; 3-5, 2; 4-6. Do not stack a team by skipping too many batters for example 1,3,5,7. This does not tend to correlate well. You can even go the route of stacking 8,9,1,2. This will be lower owned because you are taking two guys from the back of the lineup however you are still getting batters that are hitting in order.

There will be times where you try and stray from stacking in GPP’s. This is a mistake. Your main focus should be picking your pitcher and stacking two teams in MLB DFS and not getting cute and cherry-picking from teams.

Below is my best example of stacking from last season. I chose my pitcher and stacked the Mets and the Indians.

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5 years ago 0 comments

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Older Posts

MLB DFS

Pitching:

Cash

Mike Clevinger, Indians, 10.4K:

Luis Castillo, Reds, 9.8K:

Max Fried, Braves, 7.5K

GPP:

Zack Wheeler, Phillies, 9k:

Steven Matz, Mets, 7.3K:

Yu Darvish, Cubs 9.3K:

MLB Stacks and Bats

Chalk

Potential lower owned stacks:

MLB GPP Picks 7/25 Slate

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Corbin Burnes ($6,200 DK / $5,700 FD)

Top Ace(s) FanDuel: Mike Clevinger ($10,400 FD) | Luis Castillo ($9,800 FD) | Lance McCullers ($8,500 DK / $8,000 FD)

Punt Play: Alex Wood ($7,800 DK / $7,600 FD)

Top Fade: Steven Strasburg ($10,000 DK / $ 9,900 FD)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stacks

Value Stacks

FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups: Opening Day 2020 Recap

FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups – July 24

FanDuel MLB: Top Pitching Plays

FanDuel MLB: Hitting Stacks, Value, and Best Plays

FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups – July 24 Summary

7.24 MLB Full Slate Breakdown

7.23 MLB Slate Overview| Win Daily Show

FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups for Thursday, July 23

FanDuel MLB: Top Pitching Plays

FanDuel MLB: Hitting Stacks, Value, and Best Plays

FanDuel MLB Opening Day 2020 Season (*COVID) Summary

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Chris Paddack ($8,600 DK / $8,900 FD)

Top Ace(s): Shane Bieber ($10,300 DK / $10,200 FD) & Jack Flaherty ($9,000 DK / $10,500 FD)

Punt Play: Joe Musgrove ($6,900 DK / $6,500 FD)

Top Fade: Nathan Eovaldi ($7,100 DK / $7,100 FD)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stacks

Value Stacks

What is BvP?

So is it real?

Case 1: Mike Trout vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu

Case 2: Mike Trout vs. Felix Hernandez

MLB DFS: BVP Conclusion

Tenacious Strategy Session: Stacking in MLB DFS

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