For a 12-game slate tonight, I think this could be one of the tougher ones we’ve had so far. There are a few great pitchers on the mound but they’re in tough spots and then there is a big group that I believe should have good starts, but the range of outcomes is pretty wide. I’m not convinced there is a slam dunk spot available and that could make for a very fun GPP slate in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 5/20!
Lefties dominate the pricing grid at the top tonight and Cortes kicks it all off. We talked about Cortes in this spot the last time and the concerns we always have with lefty pitching against the White Sox but all he did was throw eight innings, striking out seven and only allowing one run. He’s been outstanding this season with a 1.35 ERA, 2.78 xFIP, 2.44 FIP, and a 32.5% K rate. The swinging-strike rate is just 10.2% and it’s not likely to get any higher seeing as how the career mark is 10.1%. but the White Sox are bottom five against the cutter, a nice bonus for Cortes since he throws the cutter around 40%. That pitch leads his arsenal in strikeouts with 22 and the four-seam isn’t far behind with 17. Only the slider has a wOBA over .213 and Cortes is only using that 14.7% of the time. He’s also striking out each side of the plate over 30% of the time and the wOBA’s under .240 so he hasn’t shown a lot of weakness to this point with the exception of inconsistent strikeouts from time to time. It’s not too hard to see why when you see him doing things like this on the mound.
He’s never a personal favorite and Manaea always freaks me out, let alone when he’s over $10,000 and draws the Giants. They are just one of those offenses that is very pesky and I mean that in the best way possible. They only strike out 22.3% of the time and they rank 12th or higher in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, ISO, and OBP. I mean, we can make the same argument against Cortes but Manaea has a 3.22 xFIP, 3.25 FIP, and a ground ball rate under 40% the profile does look a little bit worse in some areas. Even the K rate is 28.7% and while that’s nothing to sneer at, Cortes is better and that’s even with Manaea generating a 13.4% swinging-strike rate. It will almost always confound me that Manea can throw a sinker nearly 60% of the time and get a 27.6% whiff rate and it already has 31 strikeouts, which is nuts. San Francisco could be a team that can punish that pitch though because seven of their hitters have a wOBA over .355 against sinkers this season and five of them have a slugging over .500. I’ll be curious to see exactly how the field approaches Manaea tonight.
He’s far from the free square that he was last time out but Skubal has had a very strong start to the season, rocking a 2.50 ERA, 2.08 FIP, and a 2.71 xFIP. Like the previous two pitchers, he has a tough strikeout matchup because Cleveland only whiffs 21.1% against lefties. However, a key difference is Cleveland is also in the bottom eight in OPS, OBP, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ this year and Skubal has walked right through some of the tougher matchups he could face. Skubal has pitched against the Astros and Rockies already and totaled 12 IP, two earned runs, 15 strikeouts, and over 50 DK points. The HR/9 has been spectacular so far because last year, it was 2.11 and this season it’s dropped to 0.45 and the xFIP doesn’t suggest much flukiness there. His K rate is 28.3% and the swinging-strike rate is 12.6%, both strong marks. Skubal also isn’t overly reliant on any pitch as his four-seam/slider/sinker mix is all between about 29%-21% and the four-seam has shown massive improvement. He’s cut back on it by around 15% but the wOBA has come down from .413 to .292 (and the xwOBA is .210) and the strikeouts are evenly spread through the mix. With the Guardians just not hitting lefties well so far, you could argue Skubal has about the best matchup of any ace tonight. He just doesn’t have the track record to back it up…yet.
Honorable Mention
Eric Lauer isn’t here because he got beat up the last start against the Marlins (although it’s hard to believe that he’s suddenly going to be consistently worth five figures), it’s more about the matchup. While Washington isn’t what we’d classify as a good offense against lefty pitching, they do have the best K rate in baseball at just 16.9% and the walk rate is 10%. The 3.58 FIP could point to Lauer dodging a couple of bullets here and there but you can’t afford pitchers to not rack up strikeouts at this salary. Cortes, Skubal, and Manaea have the edge in that portion of the matchup on paper.
We’re entering the territory of even less safety than the aces, but Ray might have the best upside at his salary of any pitcher on the slate. Look, he’s going to give up runs. Let’s just agree that will happen and he’s not likely to replicate the Cy Young form of 2021. Having said that, he’s also whiffed 19 batters in his last two games and he’s thrown just 11.2 IP while giving up seven earned. He still garnered 20 DK in the last start even though he gave up five runs and while the win obviously helps, the K is the Almighty in DFS. The K rate is picking back up at an even 25% and he’s generating a swinging-strike rate comparable to last season at 14.9%. Ray is also throwing first-pitch strikes at an all-time high of 67% and his velocity has been up a little bit in the past two starts as well, coinciding with a lot more strikeouts. Boston is only 25th against the fastball this year and Ray is using that around 58% of the time with a 23.7% whiff rate. His slider has gotten 31 strikeouts so far and that has a 41.8% whiff rate, so the weapons aren’t that different than last season. I don’t expect Boston to remain in the bottom four in wOBA, OPS, OBP, ISO, and wRC+ against lefties all season but Ray is not priced nearly high enough for his ceiling even while knowing a floor game is possible.
The first start for Silseth went really well with six innings pitched, four strikeouts, and no runs allowed while he generated a 61.5% ground ball rate as well. The 3.91 xFIP from that start isn’t anything that’s terrible and he also didn’t give up a single hard hit. Now, the jury is still way out on him because he’s barely even pitched in AA, let alone any other level of being a pro baseball player. He showed immense strikeout upside in AA with a 37% K rate but there’s far from a guarantee that travels. I did like seeing over 80 pitches in the first start, so we could see 90+ tonight if things go well and he mixed pitches nicely. Rob refers to this as a changeup but I believe this is what Statcast is calling his splitter, which generated a 37.5% whiff rate and got three of the four strikeouts in the first turn. While we can expect clarification if Silseth stays in the majors, the bottom line is it was a good pitch and he controlled it well. He only allowed a single on his sinker, which he only threw seven times total. With Oakland sitting 10th in K rate at 23.8%, Silseth is worth another look tonight and we could see an extra strikeout and/or inning tonight.
This is probably the most out on a limb pick of the day, and it is not recommended for any contest outside of deep GPP. Ryu has been objectively bad so far this year but he’s pitched all of 12 innings. He’s also given up 12 earned runs, so let’s talk about why. The main culprit appears to be the four-seam fastball as it’s sitting with a .512 wOBA and a .333 average. The good news is the Reds offense is only 22nd against fastballs this season and they also stink against lefty pitching. Cincinnati has a 26.5% K rate and is in the bottom three in all of the offensive categories that we value. In this last start, Ryu got a 21% whiff rate on the four-seam and he threw it almost 55% of the time, so that was a good sign. He also generated a 24% whiff rate overall and held the Rays to just one run over 4.1 innings. The pitch count should be up to around 85 or so tonight and the Reds have been so bad, I’m willing to see if Ryu can build on the positives from the last start and see if he can get that 9.00 ERA a lot closer to his 4.00 xFIP so far.
Honorable Mention
The Giants have seemingly found a gem in Jakob Junis who may not have the K upside we crave at just 22.5% but his ERA is just 1.74 and the xFIP is fine at 3.54. Junis has been almost dead even at a .272 wOBA against either side but he’s whiffed more lefties at 25.9% compared to 20.8% against the right side. Junis has embraced his slider, which has 17 of 18 strikeouts and a 32.1% whiff rate despite him throwing it 56.3% of the time but a concern is the Padres are seventh against that pitch.
I am not a fan of this slate in the punt range because I don’t trust Ranger Suarez to get through the Dodgers lineup twice in a row and I don’t go after the Astros with guys like Martin Perez. I’ll be honest, I don’t even really love Smeltzer but if there’s a lineup or two that I want to splurge on hitting, Smeltzer theoretically allows me to do so. Keep in mind that in his 74.2 IP in the majors, he has a career 4.95 xFIP (5.15 in the first start), a K rate of just 18.7%, and a hard-hit rate of 39%. That doesn’t even mention his 40.6% fly-ball rate or his 9.4% swinging-strike rate. This is strictly his salary and matchup-based since the Royals are in the bottom 10 in ISO, wRC+, OPS, OBP, and wOBA so far this season against lefties. They have shown more signs of life lately after they fired their hitting coach so this is a mild recommendation and I will mostly be in the mid-range, mixing in Aces tonight.
Honorable Mention
If Daniel Lynch had been able to draw the Twins before Carlos Correa got back or Gary Sanchez was heating up, I would have been more excited. As it is, Minnesota is third in OBP, fifth in OPS, 11th in ISO, second in wRC+, and fourth in wOBA with a K rate under 22%. Lynch has an xFIP of 4.68 compared to his 3.30 ERA and his K rate is 22.5%, so it’s hard to put him through the process and come out saying to pitch him. What I will say is he did face the Twins and went five scoreless innings, so I think Lynch still has potential but I wish we could see him in something other than the gauntlet that he’s had to run so far.
So we’re going to kick off things with the Yankees and I expect them to be the most popular team once again. That’s been happening a lot lately but they’ve faced some bad pitching and lefty Dallas Keuchel qualifies as bad pitching, especially in New York. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Donaldson, Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu, and Aaron Hicks are all potential options for cash and everyone but Donaldson is over a .300 wOBA for the season. Torres, LeMahieu, and Judge are the top three as far as wOBA, and Torres and Judge have an ISO of at least .323. I do have to point out that Keuchel did control this team just a few days ago and that got me to consider a factor I maybe overlooked in that game – New York is a lot worse against the sinker as a team than I really gave credit for. Keuchel throws that pitch almost half the time and only two hitters have a wOBA over .350 against sinker this season (Hicks, Donaldson). At the end of the day, Keuchel is allowing a .359 wOBA and 1.29 HR/9 against righty hitting with a 4.48 xFIP but if the Yanks are chalk, you can make a case to fade in GPP on such a large slate. I also still love Anthony Rizzo in a NY stack as leverage because Keuchel has a 3.8% K rate, 6.20 xFIP, and a .431 wOBA against lefties.
I also really like the Brewers tonight and the salaries involved should keep most of the field away, even though maybe they should be more interested. Eric Fedde takes the hill for Washington and he’s been getting hit hard by lefty bats, allowing a .346 wOBA, 18.3% K rate, and a 4.88 xFIP. He’s using the cutter as the main pitch against lefties and while the samples are small, Rowdy Tellez (.675), Omar Narvaez (.600), Christian Yelich (.442), and Kolten Wong (.400) all have killer wOBA’s against cutters. The lowest hard-hit rate of the bunch is Narvaez at 50% and that quartet also has at least a .332 wOBA on the year along with ISO’s of at least .223 with the only exception of Narvaez at .159. This stack could do a lot of damage at home and it wouldn’t shock me to see them under 10%.
Honorable Mention
Coors Field
Rays
Tigers
Astros
For more stacks for Friday’s slate check out our Stack City article written by Jared!
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