We’ve got two different slates through the day but the pitching options on both leave something to be desired. There are some ace options and at least on the night slate we have some punts with some strikeout upside, but in general, it’s not the best pitching day. Let’s talk about who we do like and who we may avoid in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 5/30!
I have a feeling that this could be a pivot play since Lopez is still expensive (and very expensive at that) and he’s pitching in Coors Field but he’s been off the charts good this season. He’s leaned into the four-seam/changeup mix this yea and the change is generating a 43% whiff rate with 30 strikeouts and a .196 wOBA allowed. That has helped him keep his xFIP under 3.00 and the K rate over 27% to go along with his 14.4% swinging-strike rate. That would easily be the highest mark of his career and he also has some other traits that can survive Coors with a 25% hard-hit rate and a 44.3% ground-ball rate. The concern outside of the venue is Colorado is third against the changeup but Lopez has a better one than most. He’s also at his best as far as strikeouts when he’s facing righty hitters with a 31.1% K rate, a 1.99 FIP, and a 2.55 xFIP so the .274 wOBA isn’t that large of a concern. There is no getting around Colorado being in the top 10 in our offensive categories against righties at home, but going back into Coors can be an adjustment and pitching can win when it’s elite.
There isn’t much more of a disgusting salary on this pitching slate than Sunday at $9,500 but the Tigers are so bad right now that we at least have to talk about it. In the last two weeks, things have really gotten out of hand as they are striking out 26.7% of the time, they’re dead last in OBP, 25th in OPS, 21st in ISO, 25th in wOBA, and 24th in wRC+. Just look at yesterday when Triston McKenzie whiffed eight and could have had 30 DK points if Cleveland had produced more than one run. That’s obviously not a guarantee but Bundy has a 3.67 xFIP compared to a 4.54 ERA and his K rate is fine at 21.7%, not that far away from McKenzie. His swinging-strike rate is 11.3% and that’s a good bit higher than his 2021 season of 9.5%. One aspect that will be important is the lineup construction because Bundy has allowed a .377 wOBA, 15.2% K rate, and a 5.26 FIP. In contrast, righties have a 2.94 FIP, 27.3% for the K rate, and a wOBA of only .273. I’m far from convinced that Bundy will be part of my lineups, but it’s at least a possibility.
Valdez doesn’t have the K rate that we normally chase at 19% but the A’s do whiff over 24% of the time against lefty pitching and Valdez has an ace in the hole in his 65.8% ground ball rate. In addition to the gaudy strikeout rate, Oakland is also third in ground ball rate at 48.7% and Valdez only allows a 24.8% hard-hit rate on top of everything else. The ERA is under 3.00 and the xFIP is only 3.24 so that appears to be accurate and his splits are virtually identical across the board. Valdez is one of the least “exciting” pitchers that we talk about but it’s a smaller slate and he draws a perfect matchup. He’s throwing the sinker about 51% of the time and Chad Pinder is the only player that stands out against that pitch but the curveball is the pitch that gets the most strikeouts and the A’s are just 18th. Valdez makes plenty of sense in the slate context.
The reason I’m considering these aces is that there aren’t an overwhelming amount of other options. I had very high hopes for Logan Webb coming into the season but the 3.54 ERA isn’t exactly being out-weighed but a paltry 18% K rate. Philly is 12th in K rate against righties at 23.3% which helps a little but there is a big corner with any lefties since Week is at a 4.53 FIP, 13.4% K rate, and .270 wOBA. That’s not ideal with at least Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber waiting in the wings.
Ryan Feltner has made two starts this year and has whiffed over 31% of the hitters he faced so far and has a 3.38 xFIP compared to a 5.40 ERA. The Marlins are only striking out 22% of the time and I’m not sure how appealing it is to pitch someone who is making his first career start in Coors Field. The fly-ball rate is 44% (scary) and his 10.9% swinging-strike rate is generally a little lower than other pitchers who have a K rate over 30%.
Perhaps this is the slate to take a chance on Ethan Small, the 25-year-old lefty for the Brewers who is making his debut in Wrigley Field against the Cubs. He’s not getting a massively easy matchup and Chicago is mostly around the middle of the pack against lefties (they are seventh in ISO) but Small has a 30.4% K rate in AAA this season and a 56% ground ball rate, a great combo for success. Even dating back to 2019 in AAA, the ERA is only 1.78 and he has 177 strikeouts across 136.2 innings. There isn’t much more he can prove there so the time is now to see what he’s got for the major leagues.
Brewers
Twins
Giants
Padres
This is close to default because the slate doesn’t offer many options in this range, but Buehler at least draws the Pirates and they are banged up. Buehler has been far from a favorite guy for me for quite a while and he has a 3.81 xFIP compared to his 2.91 ERA along with a K rate that has suddenly dipped to 19.1%, the lowest of his career. The WHIP has never been higher at 1.23 but the oddest part is the swinging-strike rate is matching his career-high at 12.3%. The four-seam/cutter combo is the main two pitches from Buehler but they have only got 15 total strikeouts on the season and they are both under 28% for the whiff rate. He’s been oddly bad at home so far with a 4.37 xFIP, .370 wOBA, and 4.21 ERA but if this spot isn’t a get-right spot, I’m not sure what is. Pittsburgh is already in the bottom six in wOBA, OPS, OBP, wRC+, and ISO this season and they whiff over 25%, all the while missing regular players. On a shorter slate, Buehler is almost surely a lock for cash and even I’m going to give him a pretty long look especially since he’s only the this-most expensive pitcher.
He’s coming off a poor start and he still has some regression coming for his ERA of 2.22. After all, the xFIP is 3.66 but the good news is he’s going to face a righty-heavy lineup and he’s had better results against the right side as far as strikeouts go. The K rate is 27.4% and the WHIP is only 1.06 while the Braves are flirting with the highest K rate in baseball against righty pitching every day. When Gallen is facing the left side, he’s sporting a 0.59 WHIP and a .188 wOBA even though he won’t face many of them. Gallen hasn’t allowed much hard contact with a 22.4% rate so far and he’s generating a 46.6% ground ball rate on top of that. We could pick on the 10% swinging-strike rate or the fact that he throws the fastball 48% of the time and Atlanta is fifth but I’m betting he’s a major pivot in GPP. Buehler stands to be heavy chalk against a much worse Pittsburgh offense but Gallen can score more points even though he’s facing the Braves. If that happens, you’re in business.
Honorable Mention
I’m not sure who priced this slate but I cannot get on board with Drew Rasmussen for over $10,000. He’s been very good so far and the ERA is only 2.68 with a 3.11 xFIP but the K rate is only 23.7%. I grant you that the other pitchers in this tier aren’t any better but they also aren’t over $10,000 either. Rasmussen has only hit 20 DK or more twice so far this season.
These two slates are similar in that many of the other options aren’t super appealing, at least in the Mid-Range. Maybe you could talk me into David Peterson but I’m not a fan of him being over $8,000 against a Nationals offense that has a 17.5% K rate against lefties with the fact Peterson is not overpowering at 22.4% himself. He does have a good ground ball rate cooking for him at 54.5% so that is always a help and one aspect that could help Peterson is the slider. I’d love o see him throw it a little more here because it has a massive 52% whiff rate and .133 wOBA allowed. 15 of the 22 strikeouts for Peterson have come on that pitch and Washington is only 28th against it, but Peterson has only thrown it 23.7% of the time. There is at least a path here.
For all the reasons that we talked about with Small, Ashby is interesting as well. I have to give Ashby credit for going 91 pitches in the last start because he’s being bounced back and forth between roles. Overall, we’re looking at a 26.4% K rate but we should be a little wary of the walk rate over 13%. Having said that, he does get a ton of ground balls at a 65.9% rate and his slider is the primary pitch with a 41.4% whiff rate. The Cubbies are 13th against that pitch but in the negative numbers as a unit on the FanGraphs rating. Ashby is holding the right side of the plate to a 1.27 WHP and 3.50 xFIP along with a .267 wOBA so he’s absolutely in the running for a spot here. We’ll see what kind of lineup he gets to face in Game 2 of a doubleheader as well.
We’ve seen this movie before when the Braves listed Strider as the starter and then later changed it, but hopefully, this is the real deal. He’s only pitched 24.1 innings and hasn’t started a game yet, and the farthest he’s gone is four innings. We’ll keep an eye out for a potential pitch count but the xFIP is 2.66, the FIP is 1.46, the ERA is 2.22, and the K rate is what we’re chasing at a massive 38.9%. It’s fair to expect that Strider will drop a little in K rate if he starts as opposed to coming out of the bullpen but still….even if he fell to 28-30% that’s a huge deal and his swinging-strike rate is closing in on a whopping 17%. He’s also sitting on his four-seam /slider combo 98% of the time which would be an issue in the long term because it’s very difficult to survive 2-3 times through the lineup with just two pitches. The good news is Arizona is fourth in K rate against righties at 24.9% and Strider has allowed a lower wOBA against the left side at .206. His K rate drops somewhat to 34.7% but it’s not like that’s anything bad!
Mets
Red Sox
Rays
Orioles
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 5/30 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Saturday means the MLB action is going to be split up and we have two separate six-game slates and they both have some repeat pitching options. The rain came in late in the day yesterday and wreaked some havoc but we’re ready to roll in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 5/28!
The number of pitchers who can give up seven hits, five earned runs, take a loss, and still score 25.8 DK points isn’t very large. Cole is one of those pitchers and he’s sixth in the league in swinging-strike rate at 15.2% and he’s third in CSW at 32.5%. The K rate is 29.4% which means there is likely even more to go given the other metrics and with this amount of K upside, I’m not about to sweat a 3.00 FIP or a 2.76 xFIP. The 23.5% hard-hit rate would be the lowest of Cole’s career as well so there isn’t much telling me the last start wasn’t a bit on the odd side as far as production allowed. His BABIP is higher on the right side a t.342 but the 2.29 xFIP is awesome and he’s generating a 51.2% ground ball rate as well. Every one of his main pitches has a whiff rate over 33.5% and Tampa strikes out at the seventh-highest rate against righties at 24.6%.
I wouldn’t expect another complete-game victory for Alcantara and he did go for 115 pitches, a season-high last time out against the Braves. He’s a slightly odd pitcher since he uses four pitches but they are all between 28.1% and 22.5% so it’s very even across the board. His changeup and slider are over 29% for the whiff rate and they have 36 of 49 strikeouts on the season. The K rate overall is not great at just 20.8% and that’s likely the largest concern when comparing him to Cole and even the next pitcher. Even though he’s generating a 50.3% ground ball rate, the 2.11 ERA is not in line with the 4.09 xFIP so that is another concern. The flip side is the barrel rate is just 5% and the hard-hit rate is only 26.1% so hitters can’t exactly figure him out even without overpowering K stuff. He is at his best against the right side of the plate with a .270 wOBA, 3.88 xFIP, and a 23.6% K rate so the Braves are a good matchup for an upside start since they whiff the most against righties at 26.3%. He’s likely third in this tier, but he’s still in play.
Bieber was covered in yesterday’s version and nothing has changed except for the day he’s pitching.
Wood is another Giants pitcher that is suffering from some bad luck with an ERA closer to 5.00 and his xFIP is only 3.14 and he’s managed to hold the HR/9 under 1.00. Cincinnati has been vulnerable to lefty pitching all season with the fifth-highest K rate (25.5%) and they rank in the bottom six in wOBA, OPS, OBP, wRC+, and ISO. His K rate is 23.2% and the fly-ball rate is only 22.8%, a good sign for pitching in Cincinnati. Wood even has the hard-hit ate under 23.5% and he’s currently getting killed by the BABIP against righties at .419, driving the WHIP to 1.85. That’s not going to last forever and the sinker/slider combo has 35 strikeouts for Wood to this point. The Reds are in the bottom 10 against fastballs and sliders so this is a solid spot if you decide to pay up for SP2 today.
There is virtually nothing to offer here. I suppose that the matchup between Zach Logue and Taylor Hearn might attract some folks but that seems scary, to be kind. On the Hearn side of things, his 5.77 ERA doesn’t match the 4.30 xFIP but he’s also walking 11.3% of the hitters he’s facing and the K rate isn’t even 21%. I get Oakland is striking out over 24% of the time but they are 16th in ISO and I may rather sacrifice a bat than take the chance here. Likewise, Logue got hit hard in the last start and the xFIP is up to 5.00 with a 2.01 HR/9. Given that we have a very small sample of just 22.1 IP and Texas is seventh in ISO and 13th in wRC+, this isn’t the best spot either.
Giants
Rockies
Guardians
Marlins/A’s/Rangers (salary relief)
Not one pitcher crosses the five-digit threshold but Musgrove deserves to be this high. He throttled Pittsburgh the first time around for 29 DK points, the highest of the season and his slider has been ridiculous. It’s the primary pitch and Pittsburgh is 22nd, not to mention that Musgrove has a 42.1% swinging-strike rate, a .167 wOBA, and 24 strikeouts with it. There is a gap between his xFIP of 3.12 to the 1.90 ERA but I’m not sure the Pirates can make him pay. Musgrove has a 25.1% K rate and Pittsburgh represents a strong matchup in that department with the fourth-highest K rate at 24.9%. The swinging-strike rate is 12% and neither side of the plate is over a .285 wOBA, both sides are under a 1.10 WHIP, and both xFIP’s are under 3.15. Sean Manaea was a disappointment last night but Musgrove cares not for his struggles.
Gonsolin is the same as Bieber as the Dodgers pushed him back one day and he’s already been covered.
Honorable Mention
It’s been a breakout season for Logan Gilbert in many respects with a 3.57 xFIP and a 26.2% K rate, although the swinging-strike rate is down to 11%. We’ll need to see the Astros lineup because Gilbert has been less successful against the right side of the plate with a 4.46 FIP, 4.21 xFIP, a 20.3% K rate, and a .329 wOBA. That is less than ideal at the salary with the other options available.
I’m not likely to spend much time in this range tonight but if I do, I might consider Michael Lorenzen. The lone reason is how well he’s pitched against the right side of the plate with a 24.1% K rate, a 0.67 WHIP, and a .178 wOBA. His sinker is the main pitch against the right side of the plate and that has a .229 wOBA and .200 average so far. my largest issue is I don’t exactly trust Lorenzen against a good offense and five hitters have a wOBA over .395 when they see a sinker this year. That’s not what I’m looking for so there’s a path of Lorenzen, but it’s not my favorite.
That’s right, it’s time for Johnny Two Shakes. Do I really expect his performance to continue? Not exactly, although the 3.30 xFIP through 12 innings with 12 strikeouts for a 26.1% K rate isn’t bad at all. The hard-hit rate is 33.3% but at the same time, the ground ball rate is 50%. I don’t love seeing the swinging-strike rate at 6.3% and only one pitch has a whiff rate over 19.2%. It’s been his four-seam but he’s only throwing that 15.9% of the time while using a sinker/slider combo as the main two pitches. The Cubs are just 15th against the slider but they are also striking out 25% of the time when facing righties. Cueto could be all a mirage but the salary is totally fine and he’s facing the second-heaviest strikeout team in the league.
Honorable Mention
Keegan Thompson is dirt cheap and has a 1.54 ERA, 23.1% K rate, and a 10.6% swinging-strike rate. The White Sox have been terrible against righty pitching and they have a 47% ground ball rate, the third-highest rate in the league. Thompson has generated a rate over 53% but my only fear is the pitch count. He’s not been over 65 pitches and has to be nearly perfect to score enough points to be worthwhile. Now, he’s done that in his past two appearances BUT just understand how narrow the path to success is here.
Dodgers
Phillies/Mets
Angels
Padres
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 5/28 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Welcome to the Friday edition of the Stack City, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
It’s Friday and that means we have a full slate of games. A full slate normally means a full array of options. We definitely have some tonight!
Always make sure to read Adam’s Starting Rotation when setting your lineup. It’s hands down the best pitching article in the MLB DFS business.
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!
If you’ve been living under a rock, you’ve been missing out on one of the most epic stretches of offense we’ve seen in quite some time. The Red Sox just continues to put huge run totals every single night. They put 16 runs twice against the White Sox, one against an ace-level pitcher in Dylan Cease. Tonight they get a matchup against rookie Kyle Bradish.
Bradish’s splits play right into the Red Sox’s hands. In his brief Major League career, Bradish has been significantly worse against righties than lefties and outside of Rafael Devers, the Red Sox core is all right-handed. In 63 plate appearances, righties have a .454 wOBA and an insane .714 slugging %.
We’ll build around Trevor Story here as he’s just on an insane run right now. With his 4 RBI last night, he’s now up to 21 RBI over the last week. That’s just an insane stretch that we may not see often. He’s seeing the ball as well as he’s ever seen it so let’s lock him in.
Next up would be J.D. Martinez. Martinez himself is off to an incredible start to the year. With last night’s 3 hits, Martinez’s average is now up to .380. While the power hasn’t really been there for him just yet, he’s still producing as he’s now up to 27 runs scored while having 21 RBI. I’ll also look to get Kike Hernandez into this stack. After starting out the year slowly, he’s back and really hitting the ball well. He’s now hit safely in 12 of his last 13 games and over that stretch has multiple games with at least 2 hits. He’s also super affordable at just $3.5k on DK tonight.
While I really like the righties in this matchup, Rafael Devers will also be in play. He’s crushed righties this year with a .319 ISO. This entire Red Sox team is in play tonight.
Chris Flexen has been a fun pitcher to pick on of late. Over his last 3 outings, Flexen has given up 14 ER in just 14 innings of work. A 1:1 ratio of runs to innings is just not good and today he faces off against an excellent lineup in the Houston Astros. Flexen now has given up multiple barrels in 4 consecutive games. The Astros faced Flexen in early May and were not able to put up much in that they only scored 1 run.
They had plenty of chances and just ran into some bad luck as they had a .077 BABIP in that game. I doubt that Flexen gets that type of luck again tonight. Flexen on the year has been considerably worse against same-handedness batters so I’m going to build my core of Astros batters around righties.
I’ll start off my Astros stack with Jose Altuve. Against right-handed pitching this season, Altuve has been really good. He has a .383 wOBA and has even shown a little pop with a .226 ISO vs. them. Altuve has hits in 10 of his last 11 games. I’ll look for him to continue with his hot hitting tonight vs. Flexen.
Next up is going to be Martin Maldonado. Flexen mostly throws a cutter to righties, about 45% of the time. Maldonado has really solid numbers against cutters. Over the last several years, Maldonado has a .426 ISO vs. them and a .451 wOBA. He’s super cheap and really has a chance to do some damage tonight. If we continue with the pitch data, Chas McCormick should also do well in this matchup. He has a .416 wOBA vs. the pitch from righties.
I know I said to focus on righties, but no Astros stack would be complete without the lefty duo of Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. Lefties also see a heavy dose of cutters from Flexen and both guys absolutely smash the pitch.
It feels like it’s been forever since I recommended a Braves stack. Tonight they get a really solid matchup vs. a pitcher that has struggled in 2022. Rogers had arguably the worst outing of his season in his last game against this same Braves team. Over his last 26 innings of work, Rogers is giving up what we look for the most in MLB DFS, and that’s homers and barrels. He’s given up 6 homers and 9 barrels in those innings.
Rogers’ biggest struggles this year has really been against righties. On the year, righties are significantly better against him in just about every metric. They hit the ball harder, get more loft, and strike out way less. With the Braves being able to put out a lineup that will be about 7-8 righties deep, this as bad of a matchup as possible for Rogers. It also doesn’t help that the Braves are finally starting to hit the ball well against lefties. After starting out the season slow against them, the projection lineup tonight has a .267 ISO vs. southpaws over the last month.
My Braves stack will start with Dansby Swanson. Swanson is swinging the hottest stick for the Braves right now. Over his last 29 AB, he has 13 hits and is currently riding a 9 game hitting streak. Against lefties over the last month, Swanson has a sick .522 wOBA and .409 ISO. His early-season struggles appear to be well over. I’ll lock him at a reasonable $4.2k on DK tonight.
Next up would be William Contreras. All Contreras has done is rake since he’s been in the lineup. Over his last 5 games, he has 7 hits and a handful of walks. While his price has really risen, this is a great matchup for him as he’s just been crushing lefties. Over the last month, Contreras has had an insane .600 ISO. Expect him to do some damage vs. Rogers.
I’ll also look to include guys like Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, and Adam Duvall. Overall, the Braves are very affordable tonight in a great matchup.
Check out our MLB Projection Model to see who is the best value pitcher of the slate on DraftKings.
While I didn’t name them in my top 3, the Dodgers are also in a great spot tonight vs. MadBum. The righties in that lineup should have a field day. You can also look to the Padres vs. Quintana and Milwaukee vs. Dakota Hudson. There are some rain spots today so you’ll want to monitor that throughout the day to make sure your lineups are clear of potential postponements.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Thursday is a little odd this week because almost every game is in the 7:00 p.m. window but I honestly prefer that style of slate. We get nine games and a whole bunch of options at the top, although the punt options tonight are severely lacking. Let’s get into who we’re going to chase in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 5/26 and to lead us to green again!
So this will be the second straight time that Skubal has faced the Guardians offense and this is what we talked about the last time –
He’s far from the free square that he was last time out but Skubal has had a very strong start to the season, rocking a 2.50 ERA, 2.08 FIP, and a 2.71 xFIP. Like the previous two pitchers, he has a tough strikeout matchup because Cleveland only whiffs 21.1% against lefties. However, a key difference is Cleveland is also in the bottom eight in OPS, OBP, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ this year and Skubal has walked right through some of the tougher matchups he could face. Skubal has pitched against the Astros and Rockies already and totaled 12 IP, two earned runs, 15 strikeouts, and over 50 DK points. The HR/9 has been spectacular so far because last year, it was 2.11 and this season it’s dropped to 0.45 and the xFIP doesn’t suggest much flukiness there. His K rate is 28.3% and the swinging-strike rate is 12.6%, both strong marks. Skubal also isn’t overly reliant on any pitch as his four-seam/slider/sinker mix is all between about 29%-21% and the four-seam has shown massive improvement. He’s cut back on it by around 15% but the wOBA has come down from .413 to .292 (and the xwOBA is .210) and the strikeouts are evenly spread through the mix. With the Guardians just not hitting lefties well so far, you could argue Skubal has about the best matchup of any ace tonight. He just doesn’t have the track record to back it up…yet.
Skubal then proceeded to go out and shove for five innings with five strikeouts, four hits, and zero runs allowed before taking a comeback shot to the leg. That forced him from the game before he even hit 70 pitches and I’m in again for all the reasons laid out.
Wright continues his breakout campaign with a 2.97 xFIP, 2.51 FIP, and 2.49 EA to go along with a 0.38 HR/9 and a K rate of 29.5%. On top of all of that, Wright only has an 8.4% walk rate and a 50.9% ground ball rate so there is very little to pick on here. He’s generating a 12.5% swinging-strike rate and the hard-hit rate is under 30% while Wright has started to live up to his draft pedigree. Both sides of the plate are under a .270 wOBA and we do prefer as many righties as possible with a 2.33 xFIP and 30.7% K rate but it’s not like the lefties are doing a ton of damage either. Philly is 12th in K rate against righty pitching and the curveball has been massive for Wright. He’s now throwing it the most of any pitch at 32.7% and it’s still generating a 38.4% whiff rate and it has 26 strikeouts. That is going to be a challenge in this spot because Philly is fourth against the curve but Wright has been so good that just one issue isn’t enough to put me off of him tonight.
I’ve certainly not been a fan in the past but I have to give Nola credit for being fifth in the league in total strikeouts at 64and the K rate is 30.9%. The ERA looks like a problem at 3.96 but the xFIP is only 2.69 and his HR/FB rate is 20%. His career mark is 14.3% and Nola is also generating the second-highest ground ball rate of his career at 50.8%. His curve has been a star pitch as well since it leads in strikeouts at 22 and it also has a 42.9% whiff rate. Now, it has allowed three home runs and a .308 wOBA but that will go down when the HR/FB rate stabilizes. The lineup construction doesn’t exactly do Nola a lot of favors because his K rate is 27.5% against the right side and the WHIP is 1.30. Some folks may worry about a .385 wOBA but that’s being driven by six home runs because the xFIP is still down at 2.69. With the Braves striking out the most in the league against righties at 25.8%, Nola has plenty of upside and hasn’t pitched as bad as the ERA would indicate.
It doesn’t appear that Montas will have any issues coming into this start after being hit in the hand in his last start and leaving early. The bullpen session went well and the season has gone well so far for Montas with a 2.97 xFIP and a 27.4% K rate through 50.2 innings. The ground ball rate has only been higher n the 2019 season and this year it’s at 48.5% to go along with his career-high 13.5% swinging-strike rate. We want a lot of righties here for Montas because he’s sporting a 33.3% K rate against that side compared to 22.2% against lefties. The xFIP is also 2.22 and the splitter/four-seam combo has racked up 43 total strikeouts. Both pitches have a whiff rate over 27.5% and Texas is 11th in K rate against righty pitching this season at 23.6%. They are also in the bottom three in wOBA and wRC+ so this is a pretty excellent spot for Montas.
Honorable Mention
Eric Lauer is the top salary on the slate and he’s been excellent all season long with a 2.66 xFIP and a 32.9% K rate. The issue in my eyes is St. Louis ranks either second or first in wOBA, OPS, OBP, ISO, wRC+, and they only strike out 19% of the time. At the salary, you need Lauer to post the highest score and the road to getting there is very narrow for him. The Cards can chew up any lefty, just as they recently did to Carlos Rodon of the Giants.
Before going off a couple of nights ago, the Blue Jays have been scuffling mightily and now they have to deal with Ohtani on the mound. One of the keys for Ohtani is lineup construction because he’s utterly dominant against the right side with a .140 wOBA, .113 average, 41.9% K rate, and a 1.71 xFIP. Not only is Ohtani likely to see at least 7-8 righties, every single one of the big guns from Toronto is a righty. That’s not a guarantee by any means but his slider has the highest whiff rate of his arsenal at 48.9% and that is virtually tied with the four-seam as his main pitch against righty hitters. Given the easier matchups for other pitchers on this slate, I’m going to be very interested to see what happens with Ohtani tonight. This is still a pitcher that is only allowing a 20% hard-hit rate against righties and has a 2.46/2.16 xFIP/FIP combo while getting a swing and a miss 16.3% of the time.
Check out our MLB Projection Model to see who is the best value pitcher of the slate on DraftKings.
Honorable Mention
I feel like I’m a game log chase by bringing up Marin Perez because he’s coming off a complete-game shutout but he’s up to 49.1 IP with a 2.44 FIP and 3.66 xFIP. Now, the ERA is just 1.64 so there’s regression coming at some point and the K rate is just 19.9%. That’s always a concern when we get over the $8,000 threshold but with the game against the A’s, he might be popular. Perez is only allowing a .233 wOBA against righties but even then, the xFIP is still 3.46 so this isn’t my favorite play.
I mentioned that I don’t care for many of the punt options tonight. Hyun Jin Ryu has been pitching better but I’m not comfortable challenging the Angels with him and then you get the Patrick Corbin and German Marquez matchup, which is more of a game stack than it is a pitcher’s paradise. That brings us to Pilkington in part because he’s only $4,000 and in part through 8.2 IP in the majors, he has a 3.27 xFIP and 30.6% K rate. Detroit is striking out 23% of the time against lefties and they are 23rd or worse in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, and OPS so the matchup is strong. Every pitch that he’s thrown in the majors this year has a whiff rate over 25% and the pitch that has given him some issues has been the fourth-seam. It’s allowed a .324 wOBA and .487 xwOBA but the Tigers are 23rd against fastballs, a bonus for Pilkington. There is always going to be a risk with inexperienced pitchers and through 14.1 IP in AAA this year, his K rate is just 17.5%. It’s also the first time since rookie ball in 2018 that the K rate has been below 23.2% so I’m willing to roll the dice with all of the good offenses we have on the board.
Red Sox
Rockies
Angels
Dodgers
Twins
Royals
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