MLB DFS

Hump Day!  With it being Wednesday, we’ll have a bit of a small slate.  Thanks to the debauchery that happened with the Rangers/White Sox games last night, we’ll be down to just a 7-game slate of MLB DFS on FanDuel and an 8 gamer on DK.  At first glance, this is an odd pitching slate.  We have a couple of high-priced guys and then a whole lot of nothing.  It’s going to be a survival of the fittest type of night on the mound.

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

As will probably be the case going forward, I’m fading the most expensive arm on the slate.  Chris Sale is by far the best real life pitcher on this slate.  That said, his price is also by far the highest on the slate.  Can he post a monster outing here?  Sure, he certainly can.  I’m not willing to pay $11k for someone just as likely to throw a game hovering around 20 DK as he is 30 DK points.  We need 30 DK points out of him for him to reach value and I just don’t see it tonight. 

I’m also going to be out on Freddy Peralta.  He’s been very “mid” of late and I’m not paying $10k for someone who isn’t striking out people nor going long into games. 

Joe Musgrove ($8.8k on DK/$8.1k on FD) vs. St. Louis Cardinals

While I normally reserve Joe Musgrove for his games against the Mets, I’m more than likely going to rock him tonight on both sites.  Although the Cardinals aren’t the highest strike-out team, I think Musgrove can strike out enough to both not kill us and also take us up in the leaderboards.  My biggest concern tonight with Musgrove is his pitch count. 

Since returning from the IL, he hasn’t thrown more than 75 pitches in a game.  That said, he did put up 9K’s in his last outing with only having to throw 75.  That’s also baked into his price as he’s still under $9k.  This is nothing more than an average Cardinals lineup that Musgrove gets to face tonight.  I like for him at least 20 DK points tonight. 

Luis Severino ($7.3k on DK/$8.5k on FD) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

I’m way more interested in Luis Severino on DK than I am on FD.  His price is very enticing, even with the matchup.  The New York Mets are playing for their playoff lives at this point and need all the wins they can get.  I’m hopeful that Sevy can throw a third straight strong start.  Overall, his first year in New York has been a successful one.  After a disastrous 2023 campaign with the cross-town rival New York Yankees, Severino has pitched to a 3.84 ERA with a nearly identical xERA. 

While the K’s have been mostly down for him this year over years past, his groundballs have been up.  Against lefties over the last month, he has a nearly 54% groundball rate.  He should face a lineup tonight that has 7 lefties in it.  There’s certainly some power risk here, but with his recent propensity to get the ball on the ground, that should limit the damage.  This is far from a safe play, but with pitching the way it is tonight I’m willing to roll the dice on him in this matchup.  Especially with the Dbacks missing some of their top bats. 

The other pitchers I have an interest in tonight will be Andre Pallante vs. San Diego, David Festa vs. Atlanta, and Jack Leiter vs. Chicago (FD only).  I want to point out specifically today, I’m not 100% married to these pitchers.  Especially Sevy.  Make sure to hop into discord throughout the day to as I’ll be posting my final thoughts on pitching later today.  It’s very possible on DK that I end up going Musgrove/Leiter.  Leiter struggled in his first cup of coffee this season.  Since getting sent back down to the Minors, he’s had increased velocity and command.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Colorado Rockies vs. Max Meyer

As chalky as they’ll be, I’m going right back to the Rockies tonight.  They get a great matchup vs. a struggling Max Meyer.  Over the last month, Meyer has been terrible.  He’s allowed an ERA over 7 and has also allowed 8 homers and 13 barrels in the 25 innings he’s thrown over the last month.  Since being recalled back to the majors in July, he hasn’t had a start allowing less than 3 ER. 

In his 46 innings of work this season, he’s already managed to allow 11 homers.  He’s someone that we can rely to give up power.  With this stack, I’m not going to be overly concerned about splits.  Both sides of the plate have an OPS over .860, with lefties having a slight edge at .910. 

I’ll start this stack with the guys hitting at the top of the lineup.  That will be Charlie Blackmon, Ezequiel Tovar, and Ryan McMahon.  I said in yesterday’s article that Blackmon was due to for a big game and he rewarded us with 21 DK points.  In this matchup, he has similar upside.   

After the 3 guys at the top, I’ll look to guys like Brendan Rodgers, Michael Toglia, and Jeff Cave.  Plugging in a guy like Sam Hilliard so you can get a 9-3 or 9-4 stack is also very much in play.  This entire lineup should be in play tonight and they should score a whole bunch of runs. 

Boston Red Sox vs. Chris Bassitt

This is looking like a worst-case scenario type of matchup for  Chris Bassitt tonight.  Over the last month, lefties have really battered him.  They own a .250 ISO and a .426 wOBA vs. him over the last 30 days and also have a nearly 53% hard-hit rate and 50% flyball rate.  12 of the 16 bombs he’s given up this season have been to lefties. 

With Triston Casas back healthy, he should face a Red Sox lineup tonight that has 6 lefties in it.  Most of these lefties also own some power so tonight’s game very well could equate to a home run derby. 

Core Bats: Jarren Duran, Triston, Wilyer Abreu, Rafael Devers, Masataka Yoshida (I have this listed in my order of preference)

Secondary Bats: Tyler O’Neill, Connor Wong, David Hamilton

Value Bats: Ceddanne Rafaela

Other bats I like tonight will be the Mets vs. Eduardo Rodriguez, Blue Jays lefties vs. Brayan Bello, Rangers vs. Chris Flexen ,and Marlins vs. Kyle Freeland  

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Taco Tuesday! It’s Tuesday and that means we’ll have a decent slate to play with.  Tonight we have ourselves a nice-sized 9-game slate of MLB DFS.  This slate brings us mostly underwhelming arms and a whole bunch of average-at best pitching.  This should mean there will be plenty of options for us to choose for our stacks.  At first glance, this slate should be wide open. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Spencer Schwellenbach ($9k on DK/$9.7k on FD)

I like the price a bit more on DK than I do FD, but Spencer Schwellenbach is in play on both sites tonight.  I may be done paying up more than $10k on pitchers for the rest of the way out.  At this point of the year, pitchers are getting fatigued and the results are showing.  Schwellenbach is right in the price range of what I’m looking to spend these days.  And boy has he been performing up to the task.  Over the last month, Schwellebach has an insanely high 37% K rate and just a 2.84 ERA.  His ERA Is not fluky as his SIERA and xFIP are both more than .5 run lower.  

When he hasn’t been striking hitters out, he’s been doing a splendid job of keeping the ball on the ground as hitters have a nearly 50% ground ball rate against him over the last month.  With his ability to keep the ball on the ground when it’s in play, he should be able to neutralize the power of the Twins.  There are definitely going to be K’s to be had against this Twins lineup as 5 of the hitters in the projected lineup have a K rate over 25% over the last month.  As of now, he’s my SP1.   

Andrew Heaney ($7k on DK/$8k on FD)

At this price point and in this matchup, Andrew Heaney is almost a free square tonight.  The White Sox just continue to lose and they continue to not score runs.  Over the last week, they’ve scored just 16 runs.  Against lefties over the last month, the projected lineup for the White Sox tonight has just a .042 ISO and a .205 wOBA.  The days of the White Sox being a powerhouse against lefties are long gone.  This should set up great for Heaney tonight. 

While he’s nothing splashy, he has pitched ok over the last month.  He’s coming off one of his best starts of the season, a start that saw him go 5 innings against the Pirates and strike out 8.  He’s normally capped around 90 pitches, but at $7k we won’t need much for him to hit value tonight.  If he can get up to 20 DK points again tonight, I’d consider that victory.  With how pitching has been recently, that would be a monster victory. 

I’m out on $10k Jack Flaherty tonight.  Even though the Orioles offense hasn’t been spectacular of late, they are still a solid lineup and I’m not going to target them with the most expensive pitcher on the slate.  He has cracked 25 DK points in just 2 of his last 8 outings.  If he does it tonight, I’m ok with fading him because the risk tonight just doesn’t seem worth it.  If you want to chase upside, Dylan Cease is your guy.  That said, he’s seen a massive downward trend in performance since no-hitting the Nationals.  Other pitchers I do like tonight will be Sean Manaea vs. Arizona, Logan Gilbert vs. Tampa, Logan Webb vs. Milwaukee, and Brando Pfaadt vs. the Mets. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Colorado Rockies vs. Roddery Munoz and a terrible Marlins bullpen

Y’all know me by now.  You know that I try to avoid going to Coors as much as possible.  It’s a chalky environment and I try to be different in a way to get to the top of the leaderboard.  It’s going to be tough to fade the Rockies though tonight.  Roddery Munoz just isn’t a major league-ready pitcher.  With a nearly 6 ERA for the full season, little has gone Munoz’s way this season. 

His K/9 is low at 7.75 and his BB/9 is extremely high at nearly 5.  When hitters do make contact against him, it’s normally pretty hard as hitters have a nearly 50% hard-hit rate vs. him over the last month.  In his last 20 innings of work, he’s allowed 5 homers and 7 barrels.  While both sides of the plate will be in play today, lefties are going to be my priority.  Lefties have an OPS of 1.069 against him this year thanks to a slugging % that is approaching .700. 

I’m going to build around guys like Charlie Blackmon, Ryan McMahon, and Michael Toglia tonight.  Blackmon is due for a big day at the plate. Over the last week, he’s been BABIP’s significantly.  He has just 2 hits while putting the ball into play in 16 of his 18 AB.  His BABIP is insanely low at .125.  Look for him to get off the shnide here. 

Another bat I like here is Jake Cave.  He’s in play on both sites tonight, but his price on FD is laughable at just $2.5k.  He’s a super-strong value play there.  I’ll round out this stack with guys like Ezequiel Tovar, Brenton Doyle, Brendan Rodgers and Nolan Jones.  This entire lineup is in play as after Munoz, they’ll get a bullpen that has a 5.79 ERA over the last 2 weeks. 

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cooper Criswell. 

The Boston Red Sox are fading, and they’re fading fast.  A big reason for their fall of late is due to terrible pitching.  Over their last 4 games (I’m not including their suspended game), they’ve given up 30 runs.  They’ve given up at least 7 in 3 of the 4 games.  With Cooper Criswell on the hill tonight, the faucet of runs allowed shouldn’t stop anytime soon.  While Criswell is known to throw a solid game or 2 here and there, he’s also someone that can implode just as quickly. 

Just 2 starts ago he got rocked by the Orioles for 6 ER in just 3 innings of work.  He’s a low strikeout guy that gives up a ton of contact.  Over the last month, hitters have a nearly 89% contact rate vs. him.  Criswell also rarely goes long in his outings.  He’s made it through 6 innings in just 2 starts this season.  That will bring us to a struggling bullpen.  The Red Sox bullpen has an ERA of 5.84 over the last 2 weeks.  Of the teams on the main slate tonight, only the White Sox bullpen has been worse.  Don’t panic if they only score a couple of runs early.  This is play as much on the bullpen as it is Criswell. 

Core Bats: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Spencer Horwitz

Secondary Bats: Daulton Varsho

Value Bats: Joey Loperfido, Addison Barger, Ernie Clement, Will Wagner

Other bats I like tonight will be the Red Sox vs. Yariel Rodriguez, Marlins vs. Cal Quantrill, Padres vs. Miles Mikolas, and Braves vs. SWR.  I also want to keep an eye on the Rangers tonight.  The weather does not look good for the game tonight.  If we get more clarity before first pitch, I absolutely love the Rangers vs. Crochett and a bad White Sox bullpen.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Happy Saturday y’all!  It’s Saturday and that means nonsense with the different slates.  I’ll be focused on the 7-game main slate of MLB DFS starting at 7 pm est.  This is a slate that is very top-heavy in terms of pitching.  We’ll have the likes of Tarik Skubal and Michael King up top.  And then not much else. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Tarik Skubal ($10.9k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox

Over the last couple of years, Tarik Skubal has turned himself into one of the top pitchers in the game.  Through 25 starts this season, he’s having one of the finest years of his young career.  He’s sporting a career-best ERA of 2.49 and has maintained a K/9 around 11. He’s coming into this one in solid form, with a 31% K rate over the last month and an ERA hovering around 3. 

He gets a great matchup today vs. a bad White Sox team.  A White Sox team that has mostly struggled against lefties this season.  I’m not going to overthink this one, Skubal is my SP1 this evening. 
  

Clayton Kershaw ($7.8k on DK) vs. Tampa Bay Rays

I really wanted to get up to Michael King as my second starter tonight, but paying up for double aces just may not be in the cards or wallet.  Kershaw is a nice alternative as he takes on a below-average Tampa Bay Rays lineup.  A Rays lineup that has struggled recently, with just 20 runs scored over the last week and a K rate of 28%. 

While the days of Kershaw being the best pitcher in the game are over, he will supply us with a nice floor tonight.  At Kershaw’s price point tonight, I’ll be ecstatic with a high-teens performance and that’s something well in play.

The only other pitcher I am interested in tonight is Michael Kings vs. the Mets.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Atlanta Braves vs. Jake Irvin

The Braves somehow continue to win games.  They were helped last night by a terrible play by CJ Abrams.  They should be able to continue their winning ways this evening against Jake Irvin.  Irvin is coming into this one not in peak form.  Over the last month, Irvin has an ERA of nearly 5.5.  He’s allowed a massive 83% contact rate over the last month and a slate leading 8 homers. 

While I wish this lineup was a little deeper for the matchup, the matchup is one where they should still put up a bunch of runs.  I’m not going to be overly concerned about splits here as Irvin has really struggled against both sides of the plate over the last month, especially the righties.

Core Plays: Marcel Ozuna, Jorge Soler, Matt Olson, Michael Harris

Value Plays: Ramon Laureano, Whit Merrifield, Adam Duvall

Cleveland Guardians vs. Jon Gray

I’m going to be chasing some lefty power here.  While Gray hasn’t pitched too poorly this season, he is someone that we should be able to attack tonight.  Gray is someone that typically gives up a lot of contact.  On the year, hitters have a nearly 80% contact rate vs. him.  He’s also a very low K guy as his K/9 are just 7.5.  We’ll have to be hoping for some BABIP luck here, but I think it comes. 

We’ll want to focus on lefties here as Gray’s K rate drops from 21.5% vs. righties to just 17.8% for lefties.  Lefties also have a much higher flyball rate and hard-hit rate vs. him.  This has enabled them to have a .355 wOBA vs. him, compared to just .247 for righties.  Thankfully, the Guardians have a whole bunch of lefties in their lineup!

Core Bats: Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Steven Kwan

Secondary Bats: Lane Thomas

Value Bats: Bo Naylor, Andres Gimenez, Brayan Rocchio, Daniel Schneemann

Other bats I like tonight will be the Nationals vs. Charlie Morton, Dodgers vs. Taj Bradley, Tigers vs. Ky Bush. 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

TGIF!  Happy Friday y’all.  We have ourselves a massive 14-game slate of MLB DFS tonight.  It’s the largest slate I can remember this season.  With this many teams in action, it will mean plenty of options on the mound and to stack.  We’ll also need to make a decision on what to do with Chris Sale tonight.  He’s by far the best pitcher and also by far the most expensive pitcher.  At over $11k tonight, he’s going to take up a bunch of our salary.   

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

As it stands right now, I’m going to fade Chris Sale.  Play him if you want to, he’s the best pitcher on the slate.  For me though, his price is very restrictive and I want to make sure to grab top bats in certain matchups. 

Carlos Rodon ($9.7k on DK) vs. Colorado Rockies

We saw yesterday what a lefty could do to this Colorado Rockies lineup away from Coors.  Patrick Corbin, yes that Patrick Corbin, went 6 strong innings and struck out 8 Rockies while allowed just 1 run on 4 hits.  I’m not saying it’s a certainty that Rodon can replicate that, but if Corbin can throw a masterpiece against them anyone can.   We’ve seen a lot of volatility in Rodon’s performance this season.  Last outing he gave up 4 ER in 3 innings of work against the Tigers. 

A few starts before that, he struck out 10 Rays.  With this type of matchup, I’m going to lean more toward a performance like his one vs. the Rays than the one against the Tigers.  He has a ton of strikeout upside tonight.  You’ll just need to close your eyes and hope for the best though with Rodon.    

Luis Castillo ($9.8k on DK) vs. San Francisco Giants

This Giants team is really struggling right now.  Over the last week, they’ve scored just 15 runs while striking out 32% of the time.  Against righties this season, they’ve also struggled.  They have a sub .700 OPS and a wOBA right at .300.  This should set up very well for a pitcher like Castillo.  While he’s coming off a subpar last game, we’ve seen Castillo at times throw gems this season. 

2 starts ago he manhandled my Mets, going 6 innings and striking out 9.  With this matchup, I could see him replicating his Mets outing.  He’s done it numerous times this season so it’s not out of the realm of possibility. 

Other pitchers I have an interest in tonight will be Chris Bassitt vs. a high strikeout Angels team, Hayden Birdsong vs. Seattle, and of course Chris Sale vs. Washington.   Keider Montero vs. Chicago would be a great value pitcher today 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Yankees vs. Kyle Freeland

The reason I’m mostly sacrificing paying up for Chris Sale tonight is that I want to grab the Yankees bats.  While it’s still going to be difficult to go to 2 pitchers priced over $9k, we’ll have to look to our second stack for value.  The stars have really aligned for us here.  They get to take on a struggling Kyle Freeland and Rockies bullpen today.  The Yankees have been one of the best teams in baseball vs. lefties this season, with a .720 OPS and a .160 ISO. 

With Freeland, he’s coming into this one with a 6.66 ERA over the last month.  Over his last 5 outings, he’s given up less than 3 just once and has given up 5 or more twice.  Then we move to the bullpen, a bullpen that has an ERA over 6 over the last 2 weeks.  Everything is setting up for the Yankees to have a monster night.

Core Plays: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto

Secondary Plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Volpe, Jazz Chisholm

Value Plays: Gleyber Torres, Jose Trevino, DJ

Detroit Tigers vs. Chris Flexen

I doubt they will be sneaky tonight, but I do think the Tigers can put up a bunch of runs tonight.  They face off against Chris Flexen who is a gas can at this point of his career.  Over the last month, Chris Flexen has an ERA over 6 and both his SIERA and xFIP are just as high.  He’s given up at least 4 ER in 2 of his last 3 outings.  I’m not going to be overly concerned about splits against Flexen.  Both sides of the plate have been crushing him of late. 

That said, lefties are where the power comes from against him.  Lefites have hit 12 of the 19 homers he’s given up and have an OPS that is pushing .900.  The Tigers so happen to be lefty dominant. 

Core Bats: Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter

Secondary Bats: Matt Vierling, Spencer Torkelson

Value Bats: Parker Meadows, Colt Kieth, Zach McKinstry

Other bats I like tonight will be the Cubs vs. Max Meyer, Braves vs. Mckenzie Gore, Marlins vs. Kyle Hendricks, and Blue Jays vs Jack Kochanowicz

Update (2:48 pm est): As I’ve dug into the slate more while my kids enjoy themselves on the beach, I’m really liking the Royals more and more. Taijuan Walker is way past his expiration date. I’d focus on the entire lineup where you can fit them. Righties/Lefties, they all excel vs. Walker.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Hump day!  Happy Wednesday y’all.  We have a solid-looking 8-game slate of MLB DFS tonight.  There are 2 playable slates today but I’ll be focused on the main slate starting at 7 pm est.  This is a slate that has a stud pitcher in a pristine matchup.  It also has some very average to below-average pitchers.  This will mean that offense should be fairly spread out. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Jack Flaherty ($10.5k on DK) vs. Seattle Mariners

I’m going to have a hard time fading Flaherty tonight.  He’s by far the top pitcher on this slate and he’s facing a team in the Mariners that is back to strikeout ways.  Over the last 2 weeks, the Mariners have struck out 32% of the time.  That’s far more than any other team on this slate. 

At 28, it appears that Flaherty is finally putting it all together for the first time since back in 2019.  His K/9 is the highest it’s ever been and his BB/9 is significantly lower than they have ever been.  He’s my SP1 tonight and I’m going to overthink it.   

Ryan Pepiot ($8.3k on DK) vs. Oakland

I’m going to get a little risky with my SP2 tonight.  Ryan Pepiot is nothing special, but he hasn’t pitched all that bad.  On the season, Pepiot is sporting a very respectable 3.69 ERA and an xFIP that is nearly identical.  While I wish the K’s were a bit higher, the matchup today does provide him a bit more upside than normal.  The A’s are striking out more than 25% of the time against righties this season. 

Even though this lineup has some pop these days, it’s a lineup that can be had thanks to their high strike-out tendencies.  I can see Pepiot getting into the 20 DK point range tonight, and at this price point, I’ll take it.   

Other pitchers I have interest in tonight will be Yariel Rodriguez vs. Cincy and Aaron Nola vs. a depleted Braves lineup.   

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Yankees vs. Joey Cantillo

The Major League experience has not been kind so far to Joey Cantillo.  Through his first 3 starts, Cantillo has a far from impressive 6.23 ERA and an xFIP over 5.  It’s been a struggle for him so far to get hitters out.  So far he’s had 2 glaring weaknesses.  Getting the ball over the plate and keeping the ball in the ballpark when it does go over the plate. 

His BB/9 is a terribly high 4.15 and his HR/9 is also high at 2.77.  It’s a small sample size, but so far it’s been lefties that have tortured him so far.  They have a 1.563 OPS and a .641 wOBA. 

Core Plays: Juan Soto, Aaron Judge

Secondary Plays: Stanton, Verdugo

Value Plays: Oswaldo Peraza, Jose Trevino, DJ LeMahieu

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kyle Gibson

Kyle Gibson has been going through a rough stretch at his one talent, pitching.  Since the end of June, he has 5 starts out of 9 where he’s given up at least 4 ER.  Against a powerful Brewers lineup, he very well could add to that total this evening.  Over the last 2 weeks, the Brewers have been putting up some runs. 

Of the teams playing tonight, only the Braves and Royals have scored more than them.  I’m not going to be overly concerned about splits tonight as Gibson has been struggling against both sides of the plate over the last 30 days. 

Core Bats: William Contreras, Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio, Willy Adames

Value Bats: Joey Ortiz, Tyler Black, Garrett Mitchell

Other bats I like tonight will be the Rays vs. Mitch Spence, Angels vs. Michael Lorenzen, and Blue Jays vs. Nick Martinez. Guardians vs. Nestor Cortes are also very much in play.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Taco Tuesday!  Happy Tuesday y’all, we have ourselves a massive 13-game slate of MLB DFS tonight.  With 26 teams in action, we some how don’t have a single pitcher priced above $10k.  However, we have a bunch of really strong arms in action tonight in plus matchups.  We also have some very targetable bats as there are some pitchers in here that like to give up some runs.  

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Zack Wheeler ($9.3k on DK) vs. Atlanta Braves

I’ve been hesitant to start Wheeler at times this year because for the most part, he’s turned into a better real-life pitcher than he has a DFS pitcher.  That said, over the last month the K’s have come back to him.  His 29% K rate over the last month ranks 4^th out of all the pitchers on the hill today.  Over his last 6 outings, he’s hit 20 DK points in all. 

He’ll get the luxury of facing a Braves team tonight that will be without one of their top bats as Austin Riley will be on the IL for the next 6-8 weeks.  This is a team that is now without Riley, Acuna, and Albies.  It’s a far weaker lineup than we’ve been accustomed to seeing and one that Wheeler should be able to overmatch tonight.  As of now, he’s my SP1.  

Cole Ragans ($9.5k on DK) vs. Los Angeles Angels

I’m more than likely going to go double aces tonight.  That second ace is going to be Cole Ragans.  I was hesitant to start Chris Sale last week vs. this Angels team as they typically don’t K too much vs. lefties.  Sale went on to throw a gem vs. them.  While I’m not saying that Ragans is quite in Sales’ class of pitchers, he’s been known to show this season that he’s close to matchup proof. 

He’s become one of the top lefties in the game and should be able to continue to pitch well in this matchup today.  This is a weak-hitting Angels team and a team that has only scored 12 runs over the last week and has struck out 36% of the time.  The Royals are massive favorites tonight.  Let’s go double-aces tonight. 

Other pitchers I have intereste in tonight will be Jose Berrios vs. Cincy, Robbie Ray vs. Chicago, Luis Gil vs. Cleveland, and Shane Baz vs. Oakland.    

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Texas Rangers vs. Mitch Keller

Mitch Keller is coming off back-to-back horrendous starts.  Over his last 2 starts, Keller has allowed a combined 15 earned runs.  While that does seem to be exaggerated, I do think he gives up a bunch more tonight.  Keller just isn’t missing any bats right now.  Hitters have a nearly 84% contact rate vs. him over the last month and he has just a 7% swinging strike rate. 

This hasn’t been all unluck for him either as hitters have just a .241 BABIP over the last month.  Things could be even worse for the Pirates righty.  Against Keller, I’m going to be targeted with my approach.  Lefties have a .405 wOBA against him over the last month and a .359 ISO.  I’m going any and all lefties here. 

Core Bats: Corey Seager, Josh Smith, Nate Lowe

Secondary Bats: Marcus Semien, Wyatt Langford, Adolis Garcia

Value: Jonah Heim, Leody Taveras

Kansas City Royals vs. Tyler Anderson

I don’t trust the version of Tyler Anderson that we’re seeing this season.  At some point, he’s going to regress back to the pitcher that we’ve all come to know and love.  This is a guy who finished 2023 with an ERA and xfip in the mid 5’s.  He has a career 4.52 xFIP. 

Anderson has started to come back down to earth a bit as he‘s allowed at least 3 ER in 3 of his last 4 starts, including 7 in his last outing.  I’m going to mostly target righties here as he gives up way more fly balls to righties than lefties and I want to chase power. 

Core Bats: Bobby Witt (I have him a notch behind Seager tonight), Hunter Renfroe, Sal Perez, Maikel Garcia

Secondary  Bats: Vinnie Pasquantino

Value Bats: Dairon Blanco, Freddy Fermin, Paul Dejong

Other bats I like tonight will be the White Sox vs. Robbie Ray, Mets vs. Dean Kremer, and Yanks vs. Matthew Boyd.  Toronto vs. Carson Spiers is also very much in play.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Happy Saturday Y’all!  We have ourselves a nice-sized 8 game slate of MLB DFS tonight.  With this slate, I’m going to be prioritizing bats.  Pitching is very wonky at first glance, with only 1 pitcher being priced over $9.1k on DK.  We have another Coors slate, followed by some other bats that will be in amazing spots. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Here’s my take on Chris Sale tonight.  As it stands right now, I’m fading.  I’m not saying that he won’t smash tonight because he has every opportunity to.  This is a slate loaded with bats in great spots and I want to make sure that I grab them.  I also don’t love the matchup here. Although the Angels are a mostly weak hitting lineup, they don’t strike out much vs. lefties.  Collectively, the projected lineup tonight for the Angels has jut a 14% K rate over the last 30 days and just 18% for the season. 

At $11k on DK, we need a near-perfect start for Sale and the matchup doesn’t dictate perfect for me.  I’m not saying he isn’t the best pitcher on this slate, because he is.  I’m just making the strategic decision to fade him.  I will not talk you out of starting him though because again, he’s by far the best pitcher on this slate. 

Hunter Brown ($9.1k on DK/$9.9k on FD) vs. Chicago White Sox

I knew going in last night with Spencer Arrighetti that he was a bit of a risk.  He was coming off 2 stellar performances and was surely going to be chalky.  He is an inconsistent pitcher that could have had a myriad of outcomes.  He wasn’t terrible, but he wasn’t great.  That matchup was there for the taking and it is again tonight for a pitcher that’s been way more consistent and a pitcher I’m more comfortable with in terms of being chalky. 

Hunter Brown is having an extremely strong season, with a  10-7 record and an ERA of 3.96.  Over the last 30 days, he’s sporting an extremely respectable K rate over 28%.  He’ll be facing off against a weak-hitting White Sox team, a White Sox team that has a 25% K rate vs. righties over the last month.  At this price point, we should hope for a low 20 DK point outing.  With what he’s done this season, he’s hit that more often than not.  As it stands right now, he’s my SP1 tonight. 

Dylan Cease ($8.6k on DK/$10.7k on FD) vs. Colorado Rockies

I need to preface this by saying this is a DK-only play tonight.  I’m not willing to pay top dollar for a pitcher that is pitching in Coors.  At $8.6k on DK though, well that’s a whole different story.  Cease surely tanked in his last outing.  I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt and say he was a bit rusty as he had only thrown 1 inning of work over the previous 10 days.  It’s rare that we can get a pitcher of this magnitude at this price.  Is it a risk because he’s playing in Coors?  Oh, 100% it is.  Am I playing cash games?  No, I’m not. 

This is strictly reserved for GPP’s.  If you play cash, go spend up on Chris Sale.  If you’re new here and new to baseball, the ball travels far in Coors.  But it can only travel far if hitters are hitting the ball.  Cease has one of the lowest contact rates against of any pitcher on this slate.  The last time he played in Coors, he went for 33 DK points thanks to his 8 K’s in that game.  Again, this isn’t for the faint of heart as he’s pitching in Coors. This is the risk I’m taking tonight with pitching.   

Other pitchers that I do somewhat have interest in tonight will be Hayden Birdsong (could also stack against him) vs. Oakland, Osvaldo Bido vs. San Fran, and David Festa vs. Texas.  Chris Sale is also very much in play and I wouldn’t blame you for using him, I’m just making a strategic decision to fade him tonight. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

San Diego Padres vs. Kyle Freeland

I wanted to spend down on pitching tonight because I want to spend up on hitting.  While he’s been ok last couple of games, Kyle Freeland is still sporting an ERA well over 5 over the last month.  He’s a pitcher that we can always count on to give up a lot of contact.  Over the last 30 days, hitters have a more than 82% contact rate against Freeland.  To make matters even worse for the Rockies southpaw, nearly 42% of that contact has been hit hard. 

Over his 25 innings of work, Freeland has allowed a slate-high 11 barrels.  Hitters aren constantly squaring up against him and that should continue tonight with a team that is hitting the ball well right now.  After Freeland, we’ll get into a bullpen that has an ERA of 6.59 over the last 2 weeks.  With Freeland, I’m going to be overly concerned about splits. 

Priority Plays: Jurickson Profar, Donovan Solano, Manny Machado (he’s still really good vs. lefties)

A notch down: Jackson Merrill, Ha-Seong Kim, Kyle Higashioka, Xander Bogaerts

Boston Red Sox vs. Cade Povich

We’ll need to monitor the weather here tonight, but if this game plays without any rain issues I not only like the Red Sox side of this one but a complete game stack.  These 2 teams combined for a whole bunch of runs last night and the pitching today is more suspect.  The Orioles have recalled Cade Povich to make today’s start. 

The Orioles rookie has struggled at the Major League level.  Through his first 8 starts, Povich owns a less-than-impressive 6.27.  He’s been especially weak against righties this season as they have an OPS well over .900 against him.  6 of the 7 homers he’s allowed this season have been to righties and the Red Sox should be able to throw out 7 righties this in this lineup. 

Core Plays: Tyler O’Neill (should return from the IL tonight), Rob Refsnyder (also a strong value), Connor Wong

Secondary Plays: Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers

Value Plays: Danny Jensen, Rommy Gonzalez (pinch hit risk once a righty comes in), Ceddanne Rafaela

Other bats I like tonight will be the Orioles lefites vs. Brayan Bello, A’s vs. Hayden Birdsong (if Rooker is back tonight, I like them even more and could jump into my top 2), Astros vs. Chris Flexen (Yordan Alvarez is my favorite individual bat on this slate), and Braves vs. Griffin Canning.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

TGIF!  We’ve almost made it to the weekend!  It’s Friday and we have a nice-sized 8-game slate of MLB DFS on DK and a much bigger 13-gamer on FD.  At some point, I hope that DK adapts and starts to include the earlier games on the site as well.  At first glance, this slate looks to be very chalky on the pitching front, at least on DK.  We have 2 young studs facing 2 very beatable opponents.  This slate also brings the return of Coors so we’ll need to factor that into our decision making. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Spencer Arrighetti ($8.5k on DK/$9.5k on FD) vs. Chicago White Sox

I’m not sure yet how comfortable I am using Spencer Arrighetti as a chalk pitcher.  We’ve seen him get mauled by the Tigers, but we’ve also seen him throw some gems like his last outing vs. the Red Sox.  Over his last 2 starts, Arrighetti has struck out 25 hitters across 13 innings of work and allowed just 3 ER.  While it’s nearly impossible to make it a third in a row like that, the matchup is there for the taking. 

He gets to take on the lowly White Sox tonight.  A White Sox team that is pacing to shatter the New York Mets record for the worst record in the history of baseball.  The White Sox currently sit 64 games under .500 and will be lucky to win 40.  They are the only team yet to score 400 runs on the season.  They’ve scored the fewest runs in baseball by more than 80.  It’s baseball and anything can happen, but oh what a spot for the young Astros hurler. 

Spencer Schwellenbach ($9.8k on DK/$9.7k on DK) vs. Los Angeles Angels

My two favorite pitchers tonight will both be named Spencer.  I’m not sure that’s ever happened before.  Over the last week, we’ve seen pitchers like Jose Berrios and Kevin Gausman throw gems against this same Los Angeles Angels team.  This is a very weak-hitting Angels team without Mike Trout in it.  If we look at the projected lineup for the Angels tonight, it’s a lineup that has a K rate greater than 25% over the last month and a woeful WOBA of just .283. 

Schwellenbach has been in play for me quite a bit recently, but this matchup solidifies his pick for me.  He’s coming into this one strong, with a 3.12 ERA over the last month and an extremely impressive 36% K rate.  He’s hit at least 7 K’s in 4 straight games and at least 6 K’s in all but 2 of his starts over the last 2 months.  He’s been superb for the Braves and he should continue to his dominant run tonight in a plus matchup. 

Other pitchers I have tepid interest in tonight will be Sean Manaea vs. Miami, Corbin Burnes vs. Boston, and Gavin Williams vs. Milwaukee.  As of writing this though, I have little interest in moving away from the Spencer and Spencer.

FD only options

 Paul Skenes vs. Seattle is in play.  Just know that Skenes has come back down to earth over his last handful of starts.  Albeit they were against teams like the Dodgers/Dbacks/Astros.  He gets a much softer matchup today vs. a Mariners team that has struck out a ton vs. righties this season, though they have been much better over the last month or so.  Gilbert vs. the Pirates is also very much in play.  Same for Gerrit Cole vs. a young Tigers lineup.  Ryne Nelson vs. a free-swinging Rays team may be my favorite play of the day on FD.  Dollar for Dollar, Ryne Nelson may have the best matchup and skillset with bringing in the early games.  He’s cheap and will allow for a ton of flexibility with bats. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Patrick Corbin (FD Only)

Oh FanDuel, thank you for making my Friday.  When I first saw the schedule for today and saw Patrick Corbin was playing at 6:40 I panicked.  I thought he wouldn’t be on the main slate.  Then I looked at FD and saw they included the early games in the Main Slate and it made my week.  Patrick Corbin continues to just be terrible.  Over his last 3 games, he’s given up an impressive 18 ER while striking out just 11. 

On the season, his ERA is up 5.98 on the year and his xERA is just behind it.  We can only hope that some team is desperate enough this upcoming offseason to give him another contract.  With Corbin, we want any and all righties.  Righties have a slugging % of .528 vs. him this season and 17 of the 19 homers he’s given up have been to righties.

That means I’m going to prioritize getting in Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos into this stack.  Both guys are hitting the ball really right now.  Bohm has been held hitless just once over the last 2 weeks and is coming off a game with a 3-run homer.  Over the last month, he has a .472 wOBA vs. southpaws and an impressive .286 ISO. 

Castle’s numbers are even better against lefties over the last month, with a .535 wOBA and a .357 ISO.  Both guys are extremely affordable as they are under $3.5k.  Weston Wilson is an amazing value at $2.4k on FD.  When he’s been in the lineup, all he has done is rake and with a lefty on the mound tonight he should be in there.  This entire Phillies lineup is in play for me tonight. 

Houston Astros vs. Garrett Crochet and the White Sox bullpen

I’m going to continue to stack teams against Garrett Crochet.  Last Friday we did and they proceeded to award us with 7 runs.  Crochet is a shell of what he was earlier in the season.  He is now at 120 innings pitched, which is close to double the total that he had coming into the season.  He hasn’t pitched more than 4 innings in more than a month as his innings/pitches are being severely limited. 

We should get at least 4 innings of the White Sox bullpen today, a bullpen that has an ERA of 6.46 over the last couple of weeks.  After Crochett, we’ll more than likely see journeyman Touki Toussaint who has mostly served as the long man after Crochet exits.  Toussaint is nothing more than a gas can at this point in his career.  He’s bounced around a handful of teams over the last few years, spending much of it in the minors.    

Core Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena, Yainer Diaz

Secondary Bats: Jose Altuve

Value Bats: Chas McCormick, Mauricio Dubon, Jake Meyers, Zach Derenzo

New York Mets vs. Roddery Munoz

Although their pitching is still horrible, the New York Mets bats have come alive over the last couple of days, and with a matchup vs. Roddery Munoz tonight, that should continue.  Munoz has a very clear weakness, and that’s lefties.  Against lefties this season, Munoz has allowed a .441 wOBA and a .371.  The metrics adding to that are a low K rate of just 18.6, a flyball rate of 39%, and a hard-hit rate that has inched over 50%. 

He’s just allowing a ton of power vs. lefties.  Of the 21 bombs he’s allowed this season, 18 have been to guys from the left side.  Lefties also have a massive OPS of 1.052.  Sign me up for all the lefties in this lineup this evening. 

Core Bats: Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeill, Jesse Winker

Secondary Bats: Mark Vientos, Pete Alonso, JD Martinez

Other bats I like tonight will be the Padres vs. Cal Quantrill, Dodgers vs. Miles Mikolas and Twins vs. Andrew Heaney.  On FD, Reds vs. Michael Lorenzen are also very much in play.  

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Hump day!  It’s Wednesday and we have ourselves a pretty large slate considering the day of the week.  Thankfully, the sites adjusted and the main slate will start at 6:35 tonight.  We have an 11-game slate of MLB DFS.  We are in the tough part of the year.  Pitching recently has been even crazier than normal, with large fluctuations in performance.  We have a slate tonight that’s really void of any true ace.  That said, we do have some really solid arms in great spots. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Ronel Blanco ($9.3k on DK) vs. Tampa Bay Rays

This year’s version of the Rays has been a complete 180 from what we’ve seen over the past few years.  They currently sit a game under .500 and it will be a battle between them and the Blue Jays for last in the AL East.  Gone are Aroz and Isaac Parades.  With just 463 runs scored this season, they sit in the bottom 3 in baseball in terms of run scored.  Against righties this season, they have been terrible.  They have just a .662 OPS and a wOBA of just .293. 

For Blanco, there are definitely strikeouts to be had tonight.  5 of the 9 hitters in the projected lineup tonight have a K rate over 25% vs. righties this season.  If we look at what Blanco has done over the last 30 days, he’s been mostly strong.  Although the ERA is high at 5.68, his xFIP and SIERA both sit around 2 runs lower at 3.6.  He’s due for some positive regression and it should come against a lineup that has struggled.  He’s hit at least 5 K’s in 7 of his last 8 games.  There’s no reason to think he can’t get more than tonight.  He’s my SP1 tonight. 

Robbie Ray ($8.6k on DK) vs. Atlanta Braves

Over the last 2 nights, we’ve seen the Braves get tsruck out 11 times by Blake Snell and 6 times last night by Kyle Harrison.  I’m expecting something in the middle of that tonight.  The question with Robbie Ray is always which Robbie Ray will show up.  He’s essentially a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde type of pitcher.  There are going to be games where he has no idea where the ball is going and there will be games where he looks like the Cy Young Award winning pitcher that he is. 

With a struggling Atlanta Braves lineup in the matchup, I’m going to put odds on him having a Cy Young-level performance tonight.  Even though he’s been up and down in terms of performance, he still has struck out at least 7 in 3 of the 4 outings so far this season.  He’s been under 18 DK points in just one.  This is an exploitable spot for the Giants’ southpaw tonight.  He’ll be my SP2. 

He’s not currently in my top 2 as I write this, but I also really like Jose Berrios here against the Angels.  He’s a frustrating pitcher who could easily get tagged for a bunch of runs.  But thanks to his ability to get hitters to chase, he can also get us upwards of 30 DK points.  We saw Guasman have a really strong outing vs. them last night and no reason to think Berrios can’t do the same.  Other pitchers in my pool will be Bryan Woo vs. Detroit and maybe Tyler Anderson vs. Toronto. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Yankees vs. David Martin

I’ve been trying to avoid writing the Yanks as the top stack, but it’s just impossible tonight.  They get a matchup vs. the Davis Martin and an atrocious bullpen.  Martin hasn’t been terrible this year in his 3 starts.  He hasn’t really been tested that much though.  He’s coming off a 6-inning solid performance against an inconsistent A’s team.  The one time he was tested this season was against the Twins and he proceeded to give up 4 ER in just 3 innings of work.  Thanks to a terrible bullpen, the final score in that matchup was 10-2 in favor of the Twins. 

I would not be shocked to see that happen again tonight.  I’m going to focus on the righties here.  So far this season, righties have a .261 ISO and a .421 wOBA.  It’s a small sample size, but if we look at his career as a whole (still a very small sample) righties have done better vs. him.

The big dilemma here will be Soto or Judge.  Tbh, you can’t go wrong with either.  I think that Judge comes in at a lower ownership tonight for a few reasons.  He’s not the one who hit 3 homers last night, he’s more expensive, and he doesn’t get the platoon advantage.  Because of that, I’m going to side with him here.  But again, you can’t go wrong with either. 

Other bats I’ll look to get into my Yankees stack will be Austin Wells, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres.  Alex Verdugo is also a nice piece here.  He’s just $3.5k on DK and almost always puts the ball in play.  It’s just going to be a matter of the BABIP gods being in his favor.  Fit any and all Yanks as you see fit.  They should score a bunch of runs.

Oakland A’s vs. David Peterson

After jumping into the Wild Card lead a few weeks ago, all has completely fallen apart for my New York Mets. They aren’t scoring runs and they are giving up a ton.  Since Friday, they’ve given up 31 runs in 4 games and have scored just 5 themselves.  They are a mess right now and I’m going to attack them with what is a very inconsistent lineup for the A’s. 

We’ve seen them on a bunch of occasions put up a ton of runs and I think they do it again here vs. a struggling pitcher in David Peterson.  Peterson is normally a headcase on the mound.  He will show flashes of greatness, but in a moment’s notice will fall completely apart.  He’ll face an A’s team that is very competent vs. southpaws. 

Core Plays: Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, Miguel Andujar

Secondary Plays: JJ Bleday

Value Plays: Zack Gelof, Daz Cameron

Other Stacks I like tonight will be the Phillies vs. Edward Cabrera, Guardians vs. Jameson Taillon, Cubs vs. Alex Cobb, Dodgers vs. Frankie Montas, and Marlins vs. Tyler Phillips. 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Taco Tuesday!  It’s Tuesday and we have ourselves a nice-sized 9-game slate of MLB DFS tonight.  Unlike last night, we don’t have 2 studs facing off like we did with Sale and Snell. What an absolute joy to watch that was.  The 2 southpaws combined to strike out 23 hitters with the Braves coming out on top 1-0.  It’s rare that we ever get to see games like that these days.  Tonight will be different as we have just a few above-average arms going.  On the flip side, there are a bunch of really great spots for bats. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Michael King ($9.5k on DK) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Not sure how happy I’ll be to play chalk Michael King, but this slate is really limited with quality arms.  King is the most expensive and arguably the most talented arm.  The key piece to the Juan Soto to the Yanks trade, King has been very solid in the brown and yellow of the Padres.  At 129 innings, he’s already surpassed the career high in innings.  It’s quite possible that at some point soon, his innings will be monitored, especially with Joe Musgrove back in the mix. 

Over the last month, King has been very strong.  Pitching to an ERA of 2.95 and having a K rate that’s bumping pretty close to 32%.  He gets a favorable matchup tonight vs. a Pirates lineup that has been mediocre at best over the last week.  They’ve scored just 25 runs and have a strikeout rate of 30%.  I’ll have a bottle of Tums next to me, but I’m rocking King as my SP1 this evening.  

Eduardo Rodriguez ($8.7k on DK) vs. Colorado Rockies

Eduardo Rodriguez made his return last week in what could be said were mixed results.  The matchup in his firs start could not have been tougher as he faced the Guardians.  The Guardians are a solid lineup with players who rarely K vs. lefties.  He gets a much easier task tonight vs. the Colorado Rockies.  The Rockies have been one of the worst teams in the league this season vs. lefties.  The projected lineup for them tonight has a collective 28% K rate vs. lefties over the last month and a sub .285 wOBA.  7 of the 9 hitters in this lineup have a K rate of at least 25% vs. lefties over the last month, with 4 being in the mid 30’s and above. 

He’s still at a nice discount compared to what we were paying for him last season.  Look for him to return to the glory of last year in a plus matchup.  Far from safe, but on a slate like this and his price tag I’m willing to roll the dice.

Outside of these 2, I have little interest in anyone else.  Lugo has been very good this year but he gets a tough Twins team and he’s not really blowing away people with his 13% K rate over the last month.  He’s in play, but just know he has a very low ceiling in this matchup.  A case could also be made to throw Paul Blackburn vs. his former team.  He’s going to be chalky and there’s nothing worse than Paul Blackburn chalk. 

Same could be said for Nestor Cortes vs. the White Sox.  It’s the White Sox so he’ll chalk.  The only thing worse than Blackburn chalk is Cortes chalk.  Colin Rea has been good, but he’s facing a Dodgers team that is getting healthy.  No thanks.  I may have some interest in Kyle Harrison as he takes on a struggling Braves lineup.  Kevin Gausman has strikeout upside, but he’s as inconsistent as they come. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Texas Rangers vs. Kutter Crawford

Kutter Crawford is lost right now.  He’s had 4 horrendous games and it’s not like this isn’t something we haven’t seen from him in the past.  He had a stretch similar to this a couple of months ago.  He’s now given up 22 ER over his last 4 starts and has also allowed 13 homers.  Although he gave up just one of those bombs in his last outing, he did allow 4 walks in just 3 and 2/3 innings. 

He’s been making just a ton of mistakes and until he figures out, he’s someone that we should continue to stack against.  Both sides of the plate are going to be in business as he’s been terrible vs. both.  That said, lefties have a .619 ISO vs. him over the last month.  It’s exaggerated, but again, he’s been awful for a while now. 

Core Plays: Corey Seager, Josh Smith, Nathaniel Lowe, Adolis Garcia

Secondary Plays: Marcus Semien, Josh Jung, Wyatt Langford

Value: Leody Taveras

Padres vs. Luis Ortiz

On paper, the Padres get one of the best matchups of the day vs. Luis Ortiz.  He’s a low strikeout pitcher who has been giving up a ton of power of late.  Over his last 23 innings of work, he’s given up 6 bombs and 7 barrels.  He’s allowing a greater than 52% fly ball rate over the last month, with the majority of that being allowed to lefties.  Lefties also have a 50% hard-hit rate vs. him over the last 30 days. 

To make matters even better here, the Pirates bullpen hasn’t been very good.  Over the last 2 weeks, the Pirates bullpen has an ERA over 5 and an xFIP that’s nearly identical.  The Padres have been playing some amazing ball and that should continue tonight in this plus matchup. 

Core Bats: Jackson Merrill, Jurickson Profar, Jake Cronenworth, Donovan Solano

Secondary Bats: Manny Machado, Ha-Seong Kim

Value Plays: David Peralta

Before commenting on the Dbacks tonight, I’ll want to see their lineup.  Marte has now left 2 games early over the last 3 days.  He’s banged up and I can see them sitting him again.  I do like Bell and Suarez though vs. Gomber and Kevin Newman for value.  I don’t mind the White Sox here vs. Nestor Cortes.  Cortes is average at best and he’s been terrible recently.  I’d go with guys like Vaughn, Korey Lee, and then Corey Julks for value.  Luis Robert is in play, but he’s really expensive and he’s been awful ever since Jose Ramirez clocked him last year. 

Should Paul Blackburn come in as chalk today, I’ll look to the A’s.  It’s a high risk/high reward play as the the A’s are all or nothing.  Blackburn has historically been a reverse splits pitcher so Rooker/Andujar/Shea are in play.  That said, don’t shy away from Butler and Bleday.  Zack Gelof is a nice value play who’s hitting the ball well right now, with 2 bombs over the last week. 

The Royals will be taking on a pitcher in Zebby Matthews who is making his big league debt.  Matthews has skyrocketed through the Twins system this season.  He’s got some raw, but really nasty stuff.  Royals would be in play, but it’s always risky taking on the unknown. 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!