It’s finally Saturday! As always, we have a full day of games, first one starts at 1:40 ET and we conclude with Diamondbacks/Angels at 10:07. I went to bed with some awful sickness last night, so I’m going to keep this one short, and sweet. Let’s roll!
We will continue to pick on the A’s until they start caring about winning baseball games. Fortunately, that day isn’t coming any time soon. Cease has had a rollercoaster of a season, but he is still striking batters out at an elite rate.
Over his last five starts, he has allowed no more than 2 ER and has struck out 9+ in three of them. The victims? Dodgers, Angels, and Rangers. This guy is as locked in as any pitcher in the game, and he is in a fantastic spot again against an Oakland team that continues to rank near the bottom of every offensive category (aside from the zillion steals by Esteury Ruiz).
He is my favorite arm of the day, and I’m sure I’m not alone in that. Cease time!
This one is a combination of excitement that Glasnow finally put together a dominant showing last time out (5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 12 K), and a play against a struggling Mariners offense. I’m not expecting the numbers that Glasnow put up against the Royals last time out, but this is still a great spot.
The Mariners have a team K rate north of 27% over the last 14 days and are quickly falling out of contention at the midway point this season. The Rays are still sitting pretty, and Glasnow will be key to any deep run they want to make this season.
With George Kirby on the other side of this one, the total is set at just 7.5, and I’m not opposed to the F5 under here as well.
Here is my bold call of the day. Wind and humidity have only added to the risk for pitchers facing the best lineup in baseball, but Perez has been absolutely electric lately. Over his last three starts, he has thrown 18 shutout innings with a 24/2 K/BB. Five of his last six outings have been scoreless, and the one that wasn’t? He gave up a single run to the White Sox on a solo shot.
While it would be pure magic for him to shut out this lineup, I think he can be a nice GPP pivot on Saturday. He has a 54/15 K/BB, 1.34 ERA, and 0.98 WHIP across 47 innings. This kid is off to a phenomenal start to his career, and he could be a money maker Saturday.
The risk is clear, but the payoff may be worth the squeeze.
Nearly boasting a WHIP of 2 (1.94) across 47 innings of work with just a 33/22 K/BB and 9 HR allowed, it is safe to say that Kyle Muller isn’t having much success. The White Sox have been a major disappointment this season, but there are still some guys swinging the lumber.
Luis Robert has been the hottest hitter not named Ohtani in the league over the last month, Eloy Jimenez is (fingers crossed) finally healthy, Andrew Benintendi has been setting the table quite nicely, and Andrew Vaughn is seeing the ball well. If Jake Burger is in the lineup, I’ll give him a look as well for his power.
Muller has allowed 42 ER in 47 innings. This is unlikely to end well for him.
I’m going a bit off the wall here are targeting Severino with a struggling offense. He looked solid his last time out against Texas, but prior to that, he gave up 19 ER in 18.2 IP across four starts. The Cardinals are a dumpster fire, but they still have elite hitting littered across their lineup, and I’m shooting my shot here.
Paul Goldschmidt never ages, Nolan Arenado is still crushing the ball, and Jordan Walker has been quietly elite in his rookie season. You can look toward Brendan Donovan also, as he has been seeing the ball well of late, and one day Willson Contreras will be hitting the ball again, right? RIGHT?
Led by Mookie Betts, the Dodgers have been on fire of late. Tonight they draw a matchup against Lynch, who is actually coming off of consecutive solid outings. He just finished a 6 inning day against the Rays where he allowed just one ER on a solo homer. What he didn’t do, and doesn’t do well is miss bats. He has 7 strikeouts over his last 20 innings of work.
If you aren’t missing bats, you likely aren’t finding much success against a stacked lineup like LA. I’m all aboard here starting with Mookie Betts, then Freddie Freeman, JD Martinez, and Will Smith. James Outman, Jason Heyward, or David Peralta are fine fillers down at the bottom of the order as well. I’m not a believer in Lynch.
There is a Coors game, and I don’t blame you for going there, but I like some other spots! Let’s find ourselves a GPP win behind our guy Eury Perez, what do you say?
Find the team in the Win Daily Discord channel and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
Thursday is a deep slate of games for once, with a nice afternoon slate and an evening slate with nothing starting past 8:40 ET! Let’s make some money tonight and end the sweats early for once!
With Jon Gray being pushed for the weekend, I’ll pivot to France. He has been an under appreciated asset to the Astros this season. He has posted four consecutive quality starts, including impressive outings against the Dodgers and Angels.
Aside from a 6-walk outing against the Guardians, his command has been solid. He owns a 42/18 K/BB over 53.1 innings of work this season.
Don’t expect a big strikeout number, but he should be in good shape for the win and a quality start with the Astros’ lineup behind him facing the corpse of Adam Wainwright (more on that below).
Bello has been impressive this season, and the Red Sox have needed every bit of it. He owns a 3.27 ERA and 1.27 WHIP across 66 innings of work with a 62/21 K/BB. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in a home start since April 17th, and the Marlins aren’t scaring anyone.
The debate is somehow raging on about Luis Arraez not getting enough love for MVP, but we all know that’s nonsense. Jorge Soler is the hitter that pitchers fear in this lineup, and that’s about it. Jazz Chisholm is back, so there are more strikeouts to have for Bello and company, although we do know he has some power. Bello has served up just 7 HR on the season, so I’m not overly concerned there.
The total here is 9.5 with the Sox as a small -120 favorite. I like the balance of floor and a bit of upside here with Bello. Jesus Luzardo doesn’t look too bad on the opposite side either, but he’s a much deeper play for me.
Walker got off to a rocky start to his 2023 campaign, but has been fantastic of late. Over his last four starts (26 IP), he has allowed just two earned runs with a 26/6 K/BB. He takes on a Cubs team that is great at getting on base, but not great at finishing the job.
Walker faced the windy city foes on May 21st and was solid, giving up just two hits over 5.1 scoreless innings. On a night slate that doesn’t have many options to feel good about, Walker stands out as a solid option.
We are approaching an “Old Yeller” situation with Adam Wainwright. The Cardinals clearly love the guy, but he quite simply is a liability at this point. He has given up at least 8 hits in six consecutive starts, and owns a 16/9 K/BB over that span.
He isn’t missing bats anymore, and that’s a recipe for disaster against a potent Astros lineup. His fellow Cardinal Miles Mikolas learned that the hard way last night. The ‘Stros are in a great spot here. The red-hot Jose Abreu, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Jeremy Pena, Alex Bregman, and Yainer Diaz are all in great spots here. Grab any pieces you want in the contact party tonight. It may just be another shootout like last night.
Yonny Chirinos is a guy who can eat innings, but he fools absolutely noone while doing so. He has just a 23/16 K/BB over 48.1 innings of work, and has a tough one ahead of him here. Arizona is 5th in runs scores, 4th in hits, 3rd in BA, 5th in OPS, 7th in SLG…the list goes on and on.
Ketel Marte has been raking, Corbin Carroll has been quiet but is in a good spot, Christian Walker continues to hit bombs, and that isn’t even all of it. Lourdes Gurriel is a statcast darling, Alek Thomas can help your wraparound stack. I love the D-Backs here.
The Dodgers are still in Coors, you say? I’ll keep this one simple for you here. Chase Anderson against one of the best lineups in baseball in Coors? A match made in heaven.
Mookie Betts, Will Smith, JD Martinez, Freddie Freeman, you know what to do here. Anderson has given up 16 ER in his last 5.2 innings of work. Yes, SIXTEEN. There is no overthinking this one. You want Dodgers, and you want a lot of them.
It seems evident that the Rockies will give him some leash, as they have left him out to die the last two starts. If you can’t fit Dodgers in your lineup, you’re finding a way.
Dodgers, Dodgers, Dodgers! I’ll be mixing in some value plays, but my priority will be Coors. The Rockies don’t look bad against the rookie Sheehan either. Happy Thursday!
Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
We have a packed slate of games all day on Saturday, starting with the London Series between the Cardinals and Cubs. That game has a massive total of 13.5, so have fun with some SGP and single-game DFS action. First main slate of games starts at 4:05 ET. Let’s get to it!
Kelly has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. Across 90 innings of work, he has posted a 2.90 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and a 96/35 K/BB. He now takes on a Giants team that has been performing above their talent level…and in a pitcher’s park.
Kelly has allowed 3 ER or less in seven consecutive starts, and nine of his last ten. The Giants rank in the top 10 in some offensive categories, but they do a lot of their damage via the longball (they have 95 on the season, 9th most in MLB). Kelly has allowed just 9 HR in 90 innings this year, good for less than 1 HR/9. He is a safe bet here with a decent bit of upside.
Jose Berrios got rocked in his last start, serving up 5 ER on 8 hits across just four innings against the Marlins. He draws a much more favorable matchup here against the worst offense in baseball. The Jays are massive -280 favorites here, and Berrios should be able to get back on track.
Prior to his disaster last time out, Berrios had allowed 0, 2, 1, 0, and 1 ER over his last five starts with a combined 23/13 K/BB. He doesn’t possess a very high ceiling (79 K in 89 IP), but should be able to pitch deep here if his command is in check.
Remember the days of James Paxton being an ace? Well, he has certainly looked the part again thus far in 2023 since his return. He has been electric of late, striking out 32 batters and walking just 5 over his last four starts. During that span, he has allowed just 6 ER in 23.1 innings of work.
The White Sox have some power bats that can take advantage of Paxton’s longball issues, but if he continues to command the zone as he has, a solo shot or two won’t hurt him too badly. The Red Sox are small -120 favorites on the road in this one.
Dean Kremer is one of the worst pitchers in baseball who continues to get regular work. His numbers aren’t terrible (4.56 ERA, 1.41 WHIP), but he has given up 14 HR in 81 innings of work, and now faces a red-hot offense. His statcast metrics suggest that he is much, much worse than these numbers.
I’m banking on the Mariners putting up big numbers in this one. Julio Rodriguez, Ty France, Teoscar Hernandez, Jarred Kelenic, and Cal Raleigh are my main targets here.
This is a match made in heaven if you’re the Tampa Bay Rays. The actual worst starter in the majors faces the team that can’t stop hitting home runs. What could go wrong? Lyles is now 0-11 with a 6.72 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and just a 62/29 K/BB over 85.2 innings. Did I mention he has given up 18 HR? Let’s go ahead and assume that number will be 20+ by the end of Saturday.
Jose Siri has been on fire, Randy Arozarena does it all, Manuel Margot is finding his swing, Josh Lowe and Issac Paredes are always threats. Take your pick here, I’d be stunned if Lyles keeps this one close.
We only saw 11 runs scored last night between these two teams, but Saturday night is set up for some fireworks. Neither Griffin Canning or Chase Anderson are in a good spot here. The total is a huge 12.5. Anderson has given up 7 HR in his last four starts, and Canning has served up 6 over his last four.
I can’t just name them all, but you know what to do here.
Ohtani, Trout, Drury, Renfroe, Elias Diaz, Nolan Jones, Ryan McMahon, Randall Grichuk. Anyone with an ounce of pop should be on your radar here.
The London game looks like fun to kick things off, and we end with what looks like a massive shootout in Coors Field. Happy Saturday to everyone!
Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
Eight games on tap for Thursday, with four beginning just after 1:05 ET, followed by a random 3:45 game, then the nightcap is three games starting at 6:40 ET. There are a few nice spots to target Thursday, so let’s get right to it!
The Royals offense is hot garbage. They rank 29th in runs scored, 23rd in hits, 29th in OBP, 28th in OPS, and 26th in HR. McClanahan and the Rays are listed as ridiculous -360 favorites in this one, and it’s hard to argue with it. The Rays are more than 30 games ahead of Kansas City (yes, THIRTY), and McClanahan is in a tremendous spot.
He has given up 1 or fewer ER in four of his last six starts while compiling a 36/9 K/BB. He is striking out more than a batter per inning (97 in 89.1 IP), and has an elite WHIP of just 1.10. He will be very high owned on the late slate, but I don’t see much reason to fade him. This is one of the largest favorites we have seen this season, and there is very little downside in this matchup.
Joe Ryan is one of the best pitchers to not get the respect he deserves. His numbers this season are nothing short of elite.
84.2 IP
3.30 ERA
0.97 WHIP
91/15 K/BB
This isn’t an easy matchup by any means, as Boston ranks near the top of MLB in AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS. That said, great pitching outweighs great hitting more often than not. Ryan is actually coming off his worst start of the season, as he gave up 6 ER to the lowly Detroit Tigers. His command was still excellent, posting a 7/0 K/BB. This isn’t an ideal spot for a pitcher, but I’m taking Ryan here rather than Aaron Nola against the Braves’ powerful lineup.
Looking at the early games, Allen jumps out at me. The main draw here is the matchup (Oakland is the worst offense in baseball). Allen has actually struggled quite a bit over his last two starts, serving up 10 ER to the Padres and Astros. However, he hadn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his previous 8 starts this season.
Oakland’s offense is scaring nobody but their fans, and Allen has flashed some upside as well. He has three starts with at least 8 K in 2023, and Vegas is on board with him again today as a -175 favorite against JP Sears (who hasn’t been too bad himself).
Aaron Nola is still a very good pitcher, but this isn’t the arm we are accustomed to. He has allowed 4 ER or more in four of his last five starts, and now faces the toughest lineup in MLB. The Braves took Nola deep three times in their last meeting, and hung five ER on him in six innings of work.
I’m going back to the well here. Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, and Marcell Ozuna have all had a lot of success against Nola (including 3+ HR each). That’s where I’m starting my stack. Ozzie Albies has been heating up, and Michael Harris II is batting over .500 for the last week. This team is absolutely on fire offensively, and there isn’t a pitcher on the planet I’m taking in this matchup right now.
In what will be a bullpen game for Kansas City, we will see Cuas, likely followed by Austin Cox and Brooks Kriske on Thursday. Regardless of which arm is on the mound, the Rays are in a great spot. Arguably the best lineup in baseball, I’m banking on the Rays to put up some big numbers here.
Yandy Diaz, Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco, and the power-hitting Isaac Paredes top my list here, but I’m OK with rostering just about anyone in this lineup. It’s likely that this one turns quickly for Kansas City.
The Diamondbacks are one of the most fun young teams in MLB (well below my Cincinnati Reds…winners of 11 straight!). Irvin hasn’t necessarily been bad, but he doesn’t miss bats and his control has been poor. Across 36 innings of work, he has a 27/22 K/BB and has served up 21 ER.
Corbin Carroll, Christian Walker, Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, and Ketel Marte stand atop my list of bats to target Irvin with. We will be rolling as soon as we see Irvin get wild then Walker parks one in the cheap seats. All aboard the D-Backs train!
We have a nice fun split slate on Thursday, let’s ride some hot bats to the top of the leaderboards!
Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
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