MLB DFS Top Plays

Starting Rotation 4.26

Sunday was a pretty solid day for the Starting Rotation article and we have a fresh nine-game slate today to replicate those results. It’s a fairly interesting slate with plenty of options, just like yesterday. That’s led me to add a section to the article moving forward. After the main write-up, we’ll quickly touch on every single pitcher on the slate. It won’t be an in-depth look but this way we’ll hit on everyone. With some extra goodies ahead of us and full write-ups, let’s dig into the Starting Rotation 4.26 and find our path to the green screens! 

Starting Rotation 4.26 – Main Targets 

Corbin Burnes ($10,400 DK/$11,100 FD) 

We won’t be spending a ton of time here because Burnes is simply put the best play on the slate on paper and it’s not relatively close. If Burnes pitched in a league that Jacob deGOAT was not a part of, he would be widely recognized as the best pitcher in said league. He’s the first starting pitcher in the modern era to record 40+ strikeouts through four starts without a single walk. The statistics across the board are simply incredible. His cutter is rated at a 7.7 on FanGraphs. The only two pitches (not just cutters, mind you) that have a higher rating are the Tyler Glasnow fastball at 7.9 and the Trevor Bauer fastball at 7.8.

Burnes has a K rate over 41% and the fourth-highest swinging-strike rate in the league. Miami is striking out at a 25.4% clip to righty pitching so far. Burnes is a stone lock for cash and honestly, you’d likely want to be overweight in GPP. He has to have some sort of regression coming but it’s a smash spot and the DK price is laughable. FD a least is competitive. 

Shohei Ohtani ($7,700 DK/$9,100 FD) 

I honestly feel like this is some sort of trap. The last time we saw Ohtani on the mound, he was still throwing fire with a four-seam that’s averaging 97.2 MPH. The Angels were true to their word and kept him at 80 pitches but Ohtani demonstrated his upside in those four innings with 18.2 DK points. Oh, he did that while putting eight men on base. That feels like an outlier, as does his 26.8% walk rate currently. His fly-ball rate is only 13.3% so far and the swinging strike rate of 13.4% is excellent for his salary. 

With the Rangers whiffing at a league-leading 30.3% against righties, Ohtani may well be chalky. I can’t say I’d argue that in the least, even with it being the second straight start against Texas. We saw White Sox flamethrower Michael Kopech whiff 10 hitters in five innings just yesterday. If there is a concern, it’s how Ohtani has handled lefties so far this season. They have a .333 wOBA and just an 18.2% K rate although Ohtani has only faced 22 thus far. Both the FIP and the xFIP are over 7.00 and it would be foolish to not talk about that at all. Still, I have trouble believing that’s remotely real over the long run. In his career lefties have just a .282 wOBA and a 24.4% K rate. With the Rangers being the worst strikeout team in the majors, my fears are muted for Ohtani. I’ll be playing him a lot, it’s just to be determined if it’s in cash games. 

Trevor Rogers ($8,400 DK/$9,600 FD)

I mentioned with Burnes that he has the fourth-highest swinging-strike rate in the game. Burnes doesn’t even have the highest mark in this game among starting pitchers as Rogers is third. His fastball is remarkably electric, accounting for 23 of his 31 strikeouts to this point. The whiff rate on it alone is 38.7% and that’s despite throwing it so much. Rogers sits seventh in CSW (Burnes does have the advantage there since he’s first) and the mark is 34.2%. His K rate is 35.6% which is top 15 in the league while the FIP is 2.37. I’m not sure most of the public has caught on to just how good Rogers can be if he has it all working. 

That’s not to say this spot is without risk. Rogers does walk hitters at an 11.5% rate and Milwaukee leads the league in walk rate to LHP at 13.8%. The Brewers can hit lefties as well, sitting inside the top 10 in OBP, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. However, we saw yesterday that talented pitchers can still have good games against offenses that look great inside the splits. John Means was a good play against Oakland. With the upside that Rogers has, he could carve up this Milwaukee lineup that is second in baseball in K rate to LHP at 32.1%. That’s a massive number. 

Rogers has been lethal to RHH as well, with a 34.3% K rate 2.48 FIP, and a .229 wOBA. Lastly, Milwaukee has the third-least plate appearances to lefties this year. Their high ranks in offensive categories could be misleading with how poor the offense has been overall. Taking splits out of the equation, they are 25th in wOBA and wRC+ overall. This is not as scary a matchup that it appears to be on paper and I’m 1,000% here for a major pitcher’s duel. 

Deivi Garcia ($7,100 DK)

I’ve mentioned before I can be a sucker for young pitchers of some pedigree and the Yankees’ third-ranked prospect fits the bill. He’s not the easiest to get a handle on, including the pitch mix. Garcia pitched 34.1 innings in the majors last year and only 40 innings in AAA in 2019. That’s not a ton of time at those levels, but he has sported a K rate over 22% at both spots. His WHIP in the bigs last season was only 1.19 and the walk rate was only 4.1%. The fly ball rate over 41% at both stops isn’t totally ideal, but the hard contact rate of 27.4% last year was very solid. The stuff will absolutely play –

Garcia also generated a respectable 11.3% swinging-strike rate and a 25.6% CSW. The Orioles are sporting the fifth-highest K rate to righty pitching so far at 27.2% and are 23rd in ISO to go with 27th or worse in wOBA and wRC+. Garcia was a bit worse to righties in his stint last year with a .344 wOBA and a 2.41 HR/9. Honestly, that would be one of the bigger concerns here since the Orioles are projected to roll out five righty hitters. Even then, the 23.8% HR/FB rate for righties feels awfully high. This isn’t a lineup that should strike fear into us either. I of course wouldn’t preach this pick for cash, but in GPP he has some upside at his salary. Hopefully, FD recognizes a major league pitcher for his next start. 

Julio Urias ($9,700 DK/$9,900 FD)

Urias has been a bit of a tricky pitcher so far. He’s started four games and been excellent in two of them and very average in two of them. Being a young arm and pitching for the Dodgers almost surely means he doesn’t have a long leash, which is a bit scary at this salary. However, nobody will play him with Burnes costing just $700 more. It’s too easy to get there. On top of that, using lefty pitchers against the Reds offense isn’t something I’ll make a strong habit of this season. Urais sports a 26% K rate with a tiny 4% walk rate, and the WHIP is under 1.00 for the first time in his career. Both the swinging-strike rate and the CSW are career-bests at 13.8% and 31.5% as well.  This pitch is just silly and is an example of the talent the lefty has –

I hesitate to use this as a deciding factor because of how early it is in the season. Think about it, most teams are at 20 or so games played. Last year, that was a full third of the year. This year it’s around 1/8th of the year but the Reds have two different offenses – one at home and one on the road. The road version ranks bottom six in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ with a 23.6% K rate. Urias should face six righties and the pitcher’s spot and his splits suggest that would work best for him. The RHH has just a .229 wOBA, a .209 average, and a 25.4% K rate with a 0.50 HR/9. Do I believe he can out-score Burnes? Not particularly. If you play MME, it’s worth it to have some exposure in case he does. 

Mystery Pitcher 

Let’s play a game. We’re going to take names out of this one and just go straight statistics, and you tell me if you want to play this pitcher. The mystery man has a FIP and xFIP both under 4.00 on the season. The K rate is not spectacular at 18.2% but the walk rate is 3.4% and the HR/9 is 0.93. His BABIP is .333, which is high. This pitcher is doing a very solid job of generating ground balls at 50.7% and even the hard contact is solid at 30.9%. Heck, even the barrel rate is only 7.4%. The swinging-strike rate is not good at 7% and the CSW suffers because of it at 23.2%. The good news is the salary is not overly high. 

Here’s where things get very interesting. The mystery man has a .376 wOBA to RHH but the BABIP to that side of the plate is a ridiculous .425. His FIP to righties is 2.81 and the K rate jumps up a hair to 20.4%. That’s great because he will face a righty-heavy lineup. Said lineup is 30th in average, 20th in OBP, 29th in slugging, 26th in OPS, 25th in ISO, 26th in wOBA, 23rd in wRC+, and 16th in ground ball rate. This spot sounds like it could go in favor of the pitcher, right? 

Say hello to Matt Harvey against the Yankees. 

Make ZERO mistake – this is likely the craziest call of the season. It’s not even a case of the Yanks are likely to be chalk, so play the pitcher against them just for the sake of leverage. There is a fairly strong statistical case to make this play, especially at $5,300 on DK as your SP2. He can still get it up there at 94 MPH –

I’d be a little leery on FD where you can’t prop him up with a Burnes or a strikeout artist of your choice. This is NOT a single entry style play. If you’re not doing 3-max or more, I would likely let this one go. I feel strongly that the stats tell us as the Yankees are hitting right now, Harvey has a chance of hitting 12-14 DK points. We all are well aware the Yankees could go nuts at any point. This could backfire spectacularly….or it could work at super low ownership and catapult you up the leaderboards. 

Starting Rotation 4.26 – In Play 

Tyler Mahle – He’s been incredible this season and sits eighth in K rate at 38.8%. I’d want to see the Dodgers lineup. Mahle has owned the left side with a .139 wOBA and a 40.8% K rate. RHH has a .361 wOBA and generally, we’re not going to make money targeting the Dodgers. However, they’re coming off a rivalry series and an extra-innings game last night that was a heart-breaking loss. If there was a time to use a big strikeout arm against them, this could be it. 

Zack Wheeler – The Cardinals are still inside the top 10 in K rate to righty pitchers, so the 26.3% K rate for Wheeler plays well. The 1.31 WHIP and the 1.52 HR/9 for Wheeler leave him as a very low priority target for the Starting Rotation 4.26. 

Charlie Morton – Ground Chuck has a 3.05 FIP and a 3.29 xFIP, contrasting his 3.91 ERA. His K rate is 28.7% and the ground ball rate is 49.1%. That’s the combo you need for Morton to be successful. The Cubs rank ninth in ground ball rate and whiff the sixth-most to RHP. 

Anthony DeSclafani – His finest start of the season has come in San Francisco against this Rockies lineup. I’m always happy to go after the Rockies lineup in their first game outside of Coors after a homestand, I’m just not likely to do it at the expense of Ohtani. DeSclafani has a 23.6% K rate and a massive 57.4% ground ball rate, the latter of which ranks fourth among starting pitchers. 

Sean Manaea – Sort of the same story as DeSclafani as I’m very focused on Ohtani. The Rays are a very feast or famine offense against lefties, with a K rate of 29.5% which is the fifth-most in the league. They also rank inside the top 12 in the offensive categories we value and I feel much better with Ohtani. 

Starting Rotation 4.26 – Out of Play

Jose Urquidy – He’s coming off a poor start but Coors Field so we can’t penalize him too harshly for that. Still, Urquidy is not a high strikeout arm himself at 22.5% and the fly ball rate is over 51%. The Mariners are inside the top 10 in K rate as a team but sport a projected six RHH and Urquidy is yielding a .419 wOBA and 1.74 HR/9 to that side of the plate. 

Zach Davies – A pitcher who has more walks than strikeouts, a 6.00 xFIP, and a 6.7% swinging strike rate against a team that got no-hit yesterday? That doesn’t seem like a great mix. Both sides of the plate have a wOBA over .370 and RHH are at .422 with a 2.8% K rate. There’s no interest in the Starting Rotation 4.26. 

Adam Wainwright – He’s not terrible and is coming off a game where he struck out 10 (!) hitters. The WHIP is over 1.50 and the splits aren’t great with a wOBA over .320 to both sides. Philly is average against the cutter and curve, which are the main two pitches for Waino. Still, I have a hard time trusting any ceiling even though the Phils are coming out from the mountains of Colorado. 

Rich Hill – I’m looking to stack against him. Oakland is 13th against the curveball and Hill throws it 45% of the time. That’s not even counting his 5.48 FIP, 2.20 HR/9, and a .399 wOBA to RHH which the A’s will have plenty of tonight. 

Austin Gomber – The Giants are seventh in walk rate against lefty pitching and Gomber is over 17% himself. San Fran is also fifth in ISO this year to lefties and Gomber has a fly ball rate of over 40%. Pitching in San Fran will help, but not enough to interest me. 

Jordan Lyles – The 20.7% K rate isn’t terrible but the 2.11 HR/9 is and the Angels are 21st in K rate to righties. It’s hard to see much of any upside for Lyles since he’s giving up a .362 wOBA to righty hitters. 

Justus Sheffield – We don’t make a habit of targeting the Houston offense with lefty pitching. The Astros are eighth in OPS and have the sixth-lowest K rate to LHP. Sheffield only has a 22.2% K rate and a 5.13 FIP, so I’ll pass. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.26 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 4.23

Friday is here and we have the typical monster slate on hand for MLB tonight with 14 on tap. The good news is there is a very clear cash pitcher that will be the chalk, so one spot is already decided right off the bat. Finding one other pitcher among the 27 left shouldn’t be too difficult, right? Let’s get right into work in the Starting Rotation 4.23 and find out who we’re pairing with our ace! 

Starting Rotation 4.23 – Cash Targets 

Jacob deGrom ($10,900 DK/$12,500 FD) 

If deGrom was a mere mortal, I might have some slight concerns about the Nationals being a top 10 team against the fastball. We all know that deGOAT is not a mere mortal and he’s destroying everyone in his path even though he’s throwing a fastball almost 70% of the time. I’m not exactly sure how to explain how ridiculous that is. deGrom sports a 39.1% whiff rate on the pitch. Look at the first fastball just climb the ladder. It’s like a UFO –

He leads the league in K rate at 48.6%, swinging strike rate at 23.2% (which is 3% higher than Shane Bieber at second), and is fourth in CSW at 37.5%. The Nationals don’t strike out much as a team at 21.4% but just like the fastball ranking, I don’t care against deGrom. Nothing in the profile projects anything but dominance and he should get five righties. So far this year, deGrom has a -0.26 FIP to the right side of the plate. He’s the easiest play on the board for cash. 

Sandy Alcantara ($7,400 DK/$8,000 FD)

There are a lot of metrics to love for Alcantara to slide in as he SP2 with deGrom tonight. For starters, the pitch mix looks great as the Giants are in the bottom half of the league against all of his offerings. Secondly, he’s dominating the left side of the plate which is exactly what we hunt for against the Giants. The projected lineup has five in it and Alcantara sports a .191 wOBA, .140 average, and a 28.6% K rate to that side. It’s not like he doesn’t whiff righties either since they have a 27.5% K rate. Very few ballparks can offer the same environment that Miami does but San Francisco is one of them. Both parks are in the bottom five in run factor this season. 

One thing we want to try to nail down is why Alcantara has suddenly become a strikeout pitcher. This season he’s at 28% but in the previous 279.2 IP in the majors, he’s never been over a 22.7% rate in a season he’s pitched more than 10 innings. One big aspect that stands out is the change in the sinker/four-seam mix. Last season the sinker led his usage at 34.9%. This year, it’s down to 26.8% and the four-seam and changeup have ticked up in a big way. I don’t think it’s a huge coincidence that those pitches have combined for 22 of 28 strikeouts for Alcantara. This changeup is unhittable, flat out –

His velocity is up a hair, the mix is different and the results show so far. 

Starting Rotation 4.23 – Secondary Targets

Note – For the early look, I would hazard a guess that the deGrom/Alcantara pairing is the cash pair and that’s going to be heavy chalk. For the rest of the way, let’s chat about the other five pitchers that really interest me and we can let the projected ownership be the guide. 

Tyler Glasnow ($10,200 DK/$11,200 FD) 

I don’t believe this will be the cash pair with deGrom since we have a Coors game on the slate. The field will want a piece of those bats so spending over $20,000 on pitching is likelier to be a pivot than the norm. Still, the chance to rack up 22 strikeouts or more is tempting. Moreover, Glasnow is one of the only pitchers in baseball this year that I would say has the shot to beat deGrom in fantasy points on a slate. Only six pitchers have a K rate at 40% or higher and Glasnow is part of that exclusive club. Toronto isn’t a huge strikeout team at 23.7% but at the same time, they struggle against the main two pitches for Glasnow. This overlay is a thing of beauty –

The big righty isn’t getting a lot of strikeouts on his slider, as the four-seam and curve account for 32 of 36 strikeouts so far. All three pitches have a whiff are of 33.6% or higher and what is funny is his slider is still a top 15 pitch in baseball for FanGraphs ratings. The fastball is the highest rated in baseball so far and only Vlad, Marcus Semien, and Randal Grichuk rate well against that pitch. The latter two are also over 23% in K rate so there’s still upside for Glasnow. I continue to be impressed with the strides that Glasnow has made and if the Blue Jays matchup leaves him slightly unpopular, I’m all for it. 

Steven Matz ($8,900 DK/$9,500 FD) 

The matchup via pitch data is not exactly ideal for Matz but he’s been too good to start the year, I have to give him a look here in GPP formats. He’s dropped the sinker usage under 50% and is using the secondary pitches more often. The changeup especially is the out pitch with eight of the 18 total for Matz. The sinker does have nine to his credit and only has a .283 xwOBA. Matz is sporting a K rate of 26.5% so far and he also has a 48.8% ground ball rate, his highest since 2016. 

That last part is important since the Rays rank ninth in ground ball rate to lefty pitching at 45.6%. They also have a 23.5% K rate which is the fifth-highest in baseball so far in 2021. It’s still a dangerous spot since the Rays are top 10 in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, and average. Matz has already handled tough matchups before and has yet to drop below 18 DK. Since he’s still under $9,000, I am interested. Tampa should throw out six righty hitters tonight and Matz has dominated that side of the plate with a .189 wOBA, .098 average, and a 23.4% K rate. He could sail past 20 DK points again tonight. 

Sonny Gray ($9,300 DK/$8,100 FD) 

The pitch data for Gray is really outstanding here, as is the ninth-highest K rate to righty pitching for Cards. St. Louis isn’t even out of the 20’s against the main pitches for Gray while sitting 20th in wOBA and wRC+. For Gray’s end of the bargain, he should be at 90-ish pitches tonight after throwing 71 in his first start of the season. His velocity was down just a hair, but nothing that would concern me right out of the gate for him. He gets a little help from the ump but the movement is still great here –

His BABIP walking out of the first start was .417 which will obviously come down, so the K rate of 28.6% is encouraging. Perhaps even more encouraging was the hard contact rate was only 15.4% in the first turn. He generated a respectable 17.3% swinging strike rate as well, along with a 30.7% CSW. I believe Gray could get lost in the shuffle tonight with the players around him in price on DK, but that could be a mistake. Over on FD, he feels very cheap for his strikeout upside tonight.

Dylan Cease ($6,600 DK)

This pick is not for the faint of heart and I’d pass on FD since you only have to pitch one. Cease has some strikeout ability but comes with a catch. The only predictable aspect of his profile is his wild unpredictability. He is leaning more on just his four-seam and slider this year but the walk rate is still through the roof at 14.3%. That’s the career high and that’s saying a lot since his career marks is 12.1%. However, his swinging strike rate is also a career high 11.6% and that’s got me interested in this price tag. He’s still just 25 years old and the talent is there –

Another aspect that catches my eye is Cease has been better to lefties so far this year with a .292 wOBA and a .133 average allowed. Considering the Rangers should play five lefties and hold the highest K rate to RHP in baseball at 29.5%, the path for some ceiling for Cease is easy to see. The path for failure is also pretty simple to find because even though he whiffs the lefties at a 27.3% clip, Cease has a 6.09 FIP to that side as well. You can’t touch him in anything other than GPP but he is the lowest I’d be willing to go in salary. 

Honorable Mention – I wanted to write up my man JT Brubaker for the Buccos but he’s in a difficult spot. The Minnesota Twins are rife with righty power and Brubaker has a wOBA over .400 to the right side. That’s going to be a pass for me. 

The other two pitchers that have to be talked about are Clayton Kershaw and Yu Darvish. These two just faced each other five days ago and both went over 29 DK points. I generally don’t care for pitchers against the same team but these are elite pitchers in the majors. Even the Dodgers are going to have issues with a pitcher that can do this –

On the flip side, Kershaw is among the best to ever do it and still is capable of dominating any given fifth day –

I easily prefer deGrom and Glasnow for Starting Rotation 4.23 but Kershaw and Darvish are in play in both formats and I wouldn’t fault you at all even in tough matchups. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.23 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 4.21

Wednesday brings us some big names on the mound even though we have two separate slates ahead of us, an early and main slate. The early slate is a little more fun at least as name-value but we’re just doing the notes for that since the main slate is seven games. Let’s not waste any more time and dive into the Starting Rotation 4.21 and find out who we like and who to avoid! 

Starting Rotation 4.21 – Early 

Cash – This is a pretty easy starting point because it’s Max Scherzer and there’s not much discussion. St. Louis (thanks for last night by the way, much appreciated) is whiffing over 25% against righty pitching so far. Mad Max has the K rate up to 34.8% so far this season and the walk rate is down to 4.3%. The swinging strike rate is sitting at 17.4% and that would be the highest mark of his career, which is patently terrifying. Scherzer is more or less doing what he always has and that is strike the other team out, even with the velocity down just a tick. No other pitcher on this slate really matches the potential upside. Lock him in. 

At a guess, I would think the field gravitates to Kenta Maeda on DK for their SP2. I totally see why and don’t mind eating the chalk, but I don’t think Maeda is the slam dunk play here. He does feature a 25.8% K rate to righty hitters, and Oakland is likely to feature six. The wOBA to that side of the plate isn’t great for Maeda at .379 and both sides are hitting over .300 against him so far. That might be pretty misleading though. His barrel rate is a tiny 2.1% and the BABIP is over .400. There’s been some tough luck involved for Maeda so far and it’s an easy duo to start building around. 

GPP – If everything was equal, I would say Dinelson Lamet could push Scherzer for the fantasy point lead today. The only aspect holding me back is this is his first start of the season coming off a UCL sprain. That’s scary for a pitcher and in the past two seasons, Lamet has thrown a total of 142 innings. In that time, he’s sported a K rate over 33% and a swinging strike rate of at least 17.7%. That would rank fifth this season among qualified starters, for context. The Brewers are 28th against the slider and the last we saw Lamet, he was fastball/slider primarily. If you need a reminder of how ridiculous the slider is from Lamet, allow the Pitching Ninja to refresh your memory –

With Milwaukee struggling mightily in games not started by Chris Paddack, Lamet has upside but is a very big mystery bag here and I would tread with caution at full price. 

Honorable Mention – I looked at Frankie Montas again but the Twins are ninth against fastballs and he throws a four-seam or sinker about 67% of the time. On top of that, he’ll face 5-6 RHH and only has a 12.9% K rate to go along with a 5.05 xFIP. The Twins are sixth in wOBA, OPS, and slugging against righty pitching so far so this could be a rough ride for Montas. It’s not a question of raw stuff, just the matchup doesn’t look super favorable.

For those who feel like riding the wave, Jose Urquidy is on the board but I wouldn’t go there in single entry formats. Colorado continues to be mostly terrible, even in Coors. Only Oakland has a lower average at home against RHP and they are 20th in OPS along with 26th in wOBA. The K rate is even spiked over 25.4%. Urquidy has a very worrisome fly ball rate of 48.8% but the K rate is just under 29%. We’ve seen multiple starters succeed in Coors so far this season. It’s no guarantee at all, but it’s time to adjust and realize the Rockies offense just isn’t all that good. There is always worry in Coors and Urquidy does utilize a curve, so tread carefully.

Starting Rotation 4.21 – Main

Cash Targets 

Tyler Mahle ($9,500 DK/$8,800 FD)

I’m not sure how often Mahle is going to lead the cash group, but I can’t in good conscience pay over $10,000 for Aaron Civale against the White Sox for the second time in a row. Mahle has come out of the gates on fire with a K rate over 39% and some newfound velocity. His four-seam has jumped to almost 94 MPH and owns 15 of his 22 strikeouts. The barrel rate is only 7.4% so far and the hard contact is under 30%. Mahle also is rocking his career-high in CSW at 33.2%. 

Even though the D-Backs rank high against the fastball, I really love the splits for Mahle. He’s projected to face six lefties and the pitcher spot. So far this season, LHH have a .040 average, .126 wOBA, and a 41.4% K rate. Kick in the 1.65 FIP and those are some gaudy numbers to the left side of the plate. That fastball is generating a 30% whiff rate and he’s pounding it to lefties, throwing it 95 times already. Two of the top four fastball hitters are righty for Arizona and the fifth is on the IL. The metrics really line up for Mahle in this one. 

Jakob Junis ($6,400 DK/$7,300 FD) 

I suppose if my cutter was as good as the one Junis is throwing, I wouldn’t deviate from the plan either.

Look, if DK won’t raise his price we have to keep coming back to him at least in passing. Maybe the field doesn’t come with us and doesn’t trust him. I will say that the trust factor isn’t 100% there but the matchup looks tasty. Junis added the cutter this season and it’s been dynamite. It has supplied 10 of his 15 strikeouts so far to go along with a 55.6% whiff rate and a .238 xwOBA. The Rays strike out at the 11th highest rate in baseball to righty pitching at 26.6%. 

Junis has never been a big strikeout pitcher in his career but adding the new pitch has him sitting pretty through his first few appearances. The swinging strike rate is 12.4% and he’s never been higher than 9.8%. The CSW has followed at 31.4% contrasted with a career average of 27.6%. The overall K rate of 32.6% likely will settle lower but his barrel rate is just 7.1% as well. The smart bet would be the Rays throwing out five LHH to combat Junis but so far, Junis has chewed them up with a .146 wOBA, .136 average, and a 26.1% K rate. Righties are whiffing 39.1% of the time early on and the xFIP is no higher than 3.03 to either side. The metrics don’t suggest a $6,400 pitcher and the Rays are a good matchup to get after some strikeouts. 

GPP Targets (could easily turn into cash targets)

Michael Wacha ($7,200 DK/$7,000 FD) 

Figuring out who’s chalk and not tonight is tougher than the night before. I could see the field chasing the 33 DK Wacha just posted against the Yankees here since the Royals are a much worse offense in the public eye. They do hover around 14-18th in the offensive categories we value but they also whiff 26.9% against righties, ninth-most in baseball. Wacha has dialed back the four-seam usage and leaned into his cutter a lot more. Those two pitches have done well for him with 15 of his 20 strikeouts to this point. The four-seam is the biggest concern with an xwOBA over .400 and that is the best pitch for the Royals. Still, there is potential for Wacha at this price. 

When we target the Royals offense, we want a pitcher who can control the right side of the plate. Generally, that side has the most dangerous hitters for Kansas City. Wacha is mostly doing that with a 33.3% K rate and a .314 wOBA. He’s also only allowing a 27.3% fly-ball rate to righties. I would much prefer not to use him in cash, but we’ll see where the chalk falls. 

Ian Anderson ($8,400 DK/$7,800 FD) 

You didn’t really expect me to not include Anderson on this slate, did you? I really don’t want much to do with him for cash but man this spot could be directly in his wheelhouse. His changeup is lethal when everything is working and it’s a funny coincidence this GIF is against the Yanks –

The Yankees offense has been quite poor so far this year against RHP. I’m laying out the ranks a little differently for them to drive home the point – 

Average – 27th 

OBP – 17th 

Slugging – 29th 

OPS – 23rd 

ISO – 22nd 

wOBA – 21st

wRC+ – 17th 

This is not what anyone expected from the Bronx Bombers even in the relatively early going. It stands out as an elite pitch mix matchup for Anderson since the Yanks are in the bottom-five against his main three pitches. Another good look for Anderson is the splits, as he’s gotten cracked by lefties with a .476 wOBA. The Yankees are projected to roll out six righties and that’s where Anderson has excelled with a .269 wOBA, .171 average, and a 0.87 HR/9. Anderson’s raw stuff is good but his control is spotty at best. It’s over 10% and the Yanks do lead the league in walk rate to righties, over 12%. If Anderson can have his control and continue to generate a 50% ground ball rate, he can succeed against this lineup. If not, it could be a real short trip for him. 

Honorable Mention – Civale, but I have real issues with the salary compared to the K rate. Also, I typically try to avoid starters their second straight time against the same offense. I would bet the field doesn’t go this high, but I also thought Corbin Burnes would be GPP-only last night and he was a building block in cash lineups. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.21 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 4.18

We get a nine-game slate today for Sunday baseball action and we have two of the best fantasy pitcher on the mound today! Days like this tend to make this article fairly simple and today won’t be much different. The targets are clear and there are even a couple of secondary pitchers that are going to fit nicely into the Starting Rotation 4.18! 

Starting Rotation 4.18 – Cash 

Shane Bieber ($10,000 DK/$11,500 FD) 

There are not many pitchers that I will have zero fear over and Bieber is absolutely one of them. He’s coming off nine innings against the White Sox in which he whiffed 11 hitters and racked up 43.3 DK points. If Cleveland had given him run support in time he would have flirted with 50 for a complete game shutout. For some incredible reason, DK decided to drop this man’s salary by $700. The Reds aren’t striking out a ton as a team at just 21.6% but Bieber is sixth in baseball at a 41.7% K rate. 

It was also encouraging to see Bieber only walk one batter last game after there and four in his first two starts. Only Jacob deGrom has a higher swinging strike rate than Bieber’s 20.3% rate and there’s just so little to pick on here. If there’s anything, I guess it would be Bieber has given up a higher wOBA to RHH but it’s only .270. The xFIP to that side of the plate is still 2.61 and Bieber seeing a price reduction is nonsensical. He’s my top option on the slate and I would think the field agrees. 

Gerrit Cole ($10,400 DK/$11,000 FD)

Another spot where the pitch data may not look fantastic outside of the slide but that’s not a deciding factor. Cole is right with Bieber at a 41.4% K rate and his HR/9 is down at 0.49 after ballooning to 1.73 last season, a career-high. Even the walk rate has come down a bit to 4.3% and so far, Cole hasn’t been bothered by the 52.6% fly-ball rate he’s displaying. It helps that the barrel rate is tiny at 2.6% and hitters aren’t making a ton of contact with a 16.8% swinging strike rate for Cole. Perhaps the best metric for Cole is the difference in lefty bats this year. In 2020, lefties started to do some damage with a .319 wOBA and a 2.70 HR/9. So far through 25 batters faced this year, the wOBA is .070 and he’s yet to give up a bomb to that side of the plate.

What has been super interesting so far is the drop in four-seam usage for Cole. Last season it was at 52.8% and this year it’s at 43.2%. The changeup has been the pitch that he’s using a lot more than last year at 13.7%. Cole has yet to give up a hit with the change and has a .093 xWOBA on it. The 36.4% whiff rate is nothing to sneer at either. He may not throw it often but it’s the fourth-ranked changeup in the league so far this year among starters. About the only reason Bieber is my first option is he is cheaper on DK. I will have a lineup or two with both pitchers and it could yet be the cash route. 

Pablo Lopez ($6,200 DK)

If we can’t fit both aces comfortably, I believe Lopez slides directly into the SP2 position for DK. He’s bringing some serious salary relief to the table and I’m not worried about his last start. He was on the road against the Braves and Lopez has a career ERA over 6.00 on the road. Now he gets back to Miami and inherits quite the spot. First off, the Giants are second in K rate against righty pitching at 29.6% and only carry a .203 average, which is 25th. Lopez should have to face at least five lefty hitters today and he’s carrying a 25.9% K rate to that side of the plate. He’s struck out six of the 18 lefties he’s faced at home so far as well. 

Every strikeout but one for Lopez has come from either the four-seam or the change so far and he’s not using the sinker as much either. That’s great news as it only recorded one strikeout last season through 94 pitches. Lopez has a 43.8% fly-ball rate to lefties but the home park helps take care of that. The Giants do have the best fly ball rate in the majors so far to righties but I’m not sweating one factor when Lopez has K upside under $6,500. 

Starting Rotation 4.18 – GPP

Freddy Peralta ($9,500 DK/$8,500 FD)

Three of the top seven pitchers in K rate in 2021 are on this slate and the player that leads the pack is no Cole nor Bieber. It’s Freddy Peralta, who has been unreal to start the season. He and Corbin Burnes are the only players that have a K rate over 43% and Peralta sits at 47.1%. Now, he’s only GPP for a couple of reasons. First off, the duo of Cole and Bieber will carry the ownership just from name value alone. Secondly, Peralta is second among starters in walk rate at a ghastly 17.7%. Strikeout pitchers inherently can be a little wild but if you’re putting this many runners on base, one swing of the bat can ruin the day. The 100% strand rate won’t stand either. 

What I like about Peralta is the fact he’s leaning more into his slider and backing off the four-seam a bit. Regardless of how electric a fastball is, major league hitters are going to tee it up if you’re throwing it 73.5% of the time like Peralta did last season. His slider has accumulated 14 of his 24 strikeouts, has a .121 xwOBA, and a 60% whiff rate. It shows up in the FanGraphs rating too as Peralta’s is third among starters.

With the Pirates striking out 24% of the time so far, this is a spot that Peralta could potentially match Cole and Bieber for fantasy points. I don’t think it’s likely but if Peralta can score 5-10 more DK at a fraction of the ownership, that’s how you jump thousands in the standings in GPP. 

Honorable Mention – John Means, Aaron Nola but I am very focused on these four pitchers. When we have three massive strikeout options and a great salary-saving option in Lopez, I’m having a very hard time deviating from these four pitchers. 

Gas Can of the Slate – Well, it’s Madison Bumgarner day and he gets another terrible spot. The Nationals have smashed lefty pitching for multiple seasons and lead the league in average so far. They back that up with top-eight marks in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ as well. MadBum is not fooling anyone with a 1.98 HR/9, 11% walk rate, 2.20 WHIP, and an ERA over 11.00 backed up by a 6.22 FIP. The scary part is he’s only giving up a 4.3% barrel rate after 14.9% last year. If that starts to go the other way, lookout. 

Bumgarner is relying on a four-seam and cutter almost 80% of the time and Juan Soto, Josh Harrison, Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman, Josh Bell, and Victor Robles are all positive against the four-seam. Both pitches have an xwOBA over .400 and this spot is crazy dangerous. Turner sits at a wOBA over .600 with a .467 ISO, Zimmerman is at a .382 wOBA and even Soto is at a .375 ISO. There’s honestly not a hitter I wouldn’t consider here. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.18 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 4.16

It is a monster baseball slate tonight with 28 teams in action, so there are plenty of pitching options tonight! The biggest question is how many are solid options that we want to utilize. There are plenty of big names to choose from but they may not be the best options on the table so let’s dig into Starting Rotation 4.16! 

Starting Rotation 4.16 – Cash Targets 

Note – Once again, I’m not going to dig too deeply into Jacob deGrom. The weather in Colorado is calling for snow during the game so I’m not sure if it gets played at all and I doubt that deGrom would be popular at all. If the game is clear, I’d not hesitate at all to pitch him. We already saw Trevor Bauer record 10 strikeouts in Coors. deGrom at potentially low ownership would be fascinating and I’m hoping the game plays. Colorado whiffs about 21.1% at home against RHP so far in 161 plate appearances. 

Max Scherzer ($10,400 DK/$10,400 FD)

Truth be told, I’m not sure what to do with Scherzer based on his two starts. His velocity is down across the board and teams are getting the barrel to the ball at a 20.7% rate. For context, Scherzer has never had a barrel rate over 8.4% in his career and his hard-hit rate has followed at 44.8%. When it’s coupled with a 62.1% fly-ball rate, it’s not hard to see why the HR/9 is spiked at 3.00. That isn’t to say Scherzer is a trash pitcher now, but his K rate has been at about 31% since the start of last year. The FIP of 5.39 isn’t exactly comforting either although the FIP is 3.65. He just may not be as dominant as we’ve been spoiled to see for many years with so many miles on that arm. Also, it’s not like he still doesn’t have some evil pitches –

Arizona also isn’t striking out a ton so far at 23.8% but they are also hitting under .220 as a team. I believe there’s an upside to be had if Scherzer’s fastball can survive. He’s only given up a .125 average but the xSLG is .798 and the xWOBA is .434. The whiff rate is down to 23.1% which is 5% lower than last year as well. Also concerning is the put-away rate from 2020 was 23.5% and this year is 11.8%. If the velocity comes back he could go Vintage Scherzer in a heartbeat. Assuming he’s the chalk, I’m in without question and we can evaluate after this start with how he looks. 

Anthony DeSclafani ($8,100 DK/$8,200 FD) 

Do I totally buy into DeSclafani after just two starts? Not exactly, but this is a good spot to keep some positive momentum going. Miami is in the bottom-five in park factor so far this season and the Marlins offense can be had. They are ninth in K rate to RHP at 26.5% and 22nd in wOBA so far this year. DeSclafani is using relatively the same pitch mix as last year but the biggest change is the curve at a 5% higher rate. Seven of his 12 strikeouts have come off that particular pitch and it’s generated a 47.1% whiff rate. He hasn’t been throwing it a ton to RHH and there are six projected for Miami’s lineup. Even still the swinging strike rate jumping from 9.6% to 14.4% is eye-opening and the CSW is up to 26.1%. If you ever wanted to understand why hitters swing at curves, check this out –

DeSclafani’s righty splits are being dragged down a touch by his walk rate over 13% to that side. Still, the OBP is only .318 which is not that bad for how high that walk rate is. The 42.9% fly-ball rate to that side of the plate should be muted by the park and he is still whiffing the righties at a 22.7% rate. He obviously won’t hold a 0.82 ERA but the xFIP is 3.46 and the FIP is 2.05. With the Marlins ranking in the bottom half of the league against the two main pitches and the curve being a great K pitch, DeSclafani makes plenty of sense tonight. 

Yusei Kikuchi ($7,200 DK/$8,800 FD)

The pitch data looks terrifying and we almost always go with Astros hitters against lefty pitching but that’s not the case tonight. Not only does Houston go out on the road but Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Jordan Alvarez, and Martin Maldonado are all out of the lineup. That’s a massive hit to the lineup and if Kikuchi can keep up his start to the season, he may cut through this lineup like a knife through butter. He’s been touching 97 MPH regularly with his fastball this year –

Kikuchi has a 32.7% K rate so far and his CSW has jumped to almost 32%. He’s throwing his cutter the most of any pitch and it’s ranked 10th among starters so far this season. The only remaining hitter that has a positive cutter rating is Kyle Tucker and he’s only sporting a .200 wOBA to lefties so far this season. The two scariest hitters left are Carlos Correa and Yuli Gurriel (who leads the league in fastball rating and has a .553 wOBA and .263 ISO. Hello one-off hitter) and that’s not enough to avoid Kikuchi. I’m not going to hold the last start against him all that much because the Twins are built to smack lefties. The Astros are as well…when they’re healthy. I’ll be very interested to see who the field flocks to on DK as their SP2 tonight. 

Honorable Mention – deGrom, Walker Beuhler

Starting Rotation 4.16 – GPP Targets

Steven Matz ($9,300 DK/$9,800 FD) 

I’m not in love with the salaries because I’m not sure Matz has the ceiling to go with it. Still, he’s been excellent so far this year and he even navigated the Angels lineup, which can hit lefties some nights (although not that night when I played him). I’ll go back to him here as his sinker has been his go-to pitch so far. It’s only allowed a .107 average, .285 xwOBA, and a .285 xSLG to this point with eight of the 13 strikeouts. Kansas City has a strong rating against fastballs, but they are very top-heavy. Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez, and Michael A. Taylor are the only ones with a 1.0 rating or higher. The other great metric in Matz’s favor is his ground ball rate. 

If we’re not totally sold on the strikeout upside, we need ground outs and Matz is at a 55.2% rate so far. It just so happens that the leading ground ball team to lefty pitching are these Royals, which is fantastic news for Matz. They only whiff about 21% of the time. The biggest concern is likely the 19.4% K rate to RHH for Matz so far since the Royals are very righty-heavy in their lineup. It’s the main reason I won’t go there in cash but Matz has upside potential even if the path is a little less clear. 

JT Brubaker ($7,500 DK)

This might seem like an oddball pick at first glance but digging in, Brubaker looks like a great option. The Brewers are struggling badly offensively right now, ranking no higher than 22nd in average, OBP, OPS, slugging, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. On top of that, the K rate is an even 25%. That’s already a nice checkmark for Brubaker. The CSW is respectable at 28.2% and the swinging strike rate is also solid at 10.9%. Brubaker has also kept the hard contact down at 24% while the Brewers sit 28th in that category. His slider is the key, as it has six of his 10 strikeouts and a 32% whiff rate. What is really encouraging is the splits because he has owned lefties thus far. 

That side of the plate is hitting for a .167 average, .227 wOBA, and a 2.95 FIP. The K rate is stagnant at 23.8% for each side and the Brewers projected lineup has five lefties with the pitcher spot on top of it. Of those lefties, Christian Yelich has a 0.7 rating and Omar Narvaez has a 0.2 rating against the slider. Every other lefty is in the negatives in FanGraphs rating. He’s averaging a little over 16 fantasy points despite only pitching four and 5.1 innings in each start. If he can go a little deeper than 82 or 72 pitches, he could be a very cheap 20 DK points. It could help his cause to go deep into the game since the Pirates only got 3.1 innings out of their starter yesterday. I would only use him as an SP2 on DK and skip him on FD. 

Honorable Mention – Adrian Houser, Mike Foltynewicz in MME formats 

Gas Can of the Slate – If it plays, the Mets are in Coors Field against a pitcher who has given up a .346 wOBA to LHH over his career and only strikes them out 14% of the time. New York has Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, and Jeff McNeil at $4,200 or less on DK. Add in Francisco Lindor or Pete Alonso and away you go. 

Let’s talk about a less obvious spot. Well, it’s probably still fairly obvious but I digress. The Rangers are drawing one of the weakest pitchers on the slate in Baltimore’s Jorge Lopez. He’s allowing a barrel rate over 11% and a hard hit rate over 44%, to go along with a 3.12 HR/9. Lopez also is getting crushed by lefties with a .300 average, 1.062 OPS, .459 wOBA, and a 7.7% K rate. Friends, if you’re not going to miss Joey Gallo’s bat you’re going to have a hard time. There should be at least 4-5 lefties in the lineup and in honesty, the .388 wOBA to righties isn’t anything to write home about for Lopez either. 

Gallo, Nate Lowe, Jose Trevino, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are all over a .335 wOBA and Gallo is super fascinating. This is a hitter with a career .282 ISO against righty pitching and so far this season, he’s at .000. That’s not a typo. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that won’t stick forever. Even Adolis Garcia is well in play, as he’s been hitting clean-up and he’s just $2,700. I’ll make a home run call early and say Gallo leaves the yard tonight as a centerpiece to a Texas stack.

Starting Rotation 4.16 Betting Section 

Free Bet 

Record – 9-8

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.16 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 4.14

We’re back with a split slate on Wednesday with five and seven games in front of us. It shouldn’t come as a big surprise, but the pitching on today’s slate is….not great. The early slate especially looks a little rough but let’s talk about both in the Starting Rotation 4.14 and figure out who we need to target for the green screens!

Starting Rotation 4.14 – Early Slate 

There’s not much of a discussion in my eyes about who’s the lock on the five-game slate and it’s Corbin Burnes. His cutter continues to do the heavy lifting with a 33.3% whiff rate even though Burnes is throwing it about half the time. It’s the highest-rated cutter in the league via FanGraphs rating and even though Chicago is 12th against the pitch, Burnes is just nasty. The Cubs are flirting with a 30% K rate as a team and Burnes is at a 48.8% K rate through 12.1 IP and a massive 37.6% CSW. This cutter is just silly good –

I only really “like” two other options. The first is Jake Arrieta and we all know that I don’t love playing him. In honesty, it’s kind of a scary spot for him. He’s got a bit of a weakness to the left side of the plate with a .329 wOBA and a .300 average. Now, he does strike them out at a 24.2% rate but Milwaukee should feature five lefties. There’s virtually no upside at the price either. The Brewers offense hasn’t done a lot and only has the 27th ranked wOBA to righty pitching. I’d like to see the ownership before deciding on Arrieta. 

The other pitcher that might be worth playing is Nathan Eovaldi. Minnesota is a very tough spot as they sport a top 10 mark in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. They also smash some fastballs at a top 10 rate and Eovaldi throws a four-seam, split-finger, and cutter almost 65% of the time. Eovaldi does have a 31.7% CSW and a 63.3% ground ball rate to go with a 16.7% hard-hit rate. At the price, we don’t need a ton and I’d rather go after the Twins offense than the Red Sox with Kenta Maeda (who is wildly cheap in his own right), though neither sounds that fun. 

The Red Sox strike out at a much lower rate (22.7%), are number one in ISO, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, and average against righties. Yikes. As I said, neither matchup is a walk in the park and you’re hoping either pitcher didn’t get blown up. I’ll slightly lean Eovaldi and I honestly will likely avoid cash on this slate. There are enough games but the pitching is dreadful. I plan on playing lighter and likely just in GPP. 

Starting Rotation 4.14 – Cash Picks 

Dustin May ($9,400 DK/$9,000 FD) 

It won’t come as a surprise but I’m back to attacking the Rockies outside of Coors Field. May was superlative in his first start and I do think he could be a little overpriced, but for this slate, he’s one of the safest candidates out there. May’s largest issue in the past has been not enough strikeouts as his career K rate is just 21.6% through 90.2 IP. That was different in his first start and his cutter was one of the main reasons. It whiffed five of the eight A’s that night and it was moving a lot more than last year. In 2020, it was at 23.8 inches of drop, and this year it was at 26 inches. He also added some drop onto the curveball and everything clicked for him. I mean, what are you supposed to do with this?

Do I fully trust him to do it again? Not exactly, but the spot is fantastic and May has always had some serious like on his pitches. Seeing the CSW jump from 26.3% to 32.9% and the swinging strike rate go from 8.4% to 17.6% is super exciting, even if it is just one start so far. This kid is still only 23 years old and his first 90 innings might just have been learning the ropes. May also generated a 61.5% ground ball rate in that first start so there’s a ton to be excited about here. On a slate where there’s not a ton of trust to go around, he checks in as my number one play. 

Charlie Morton ($7,600 DK/$8,500 FD)

Alright, after Max Fried got wrecked last night let’s try this again. The crafty veteran Charlie Morton toes the rubber tonight and is in a little better spot simply because he throws the ball right-handed. Miami is striking out over 26% against righties and Morton has a 26.7% K rate through two starts. His four-seam/curve combo has done the job with a 41.7% whiff rate or higher so far to rack up 10 of his 12 strikeouts. The swinging strike rate is down a hair at 11.7% but the CSW is up 34.4% so Morton still looks quite dangerous. Morton’s velocity is up slightly too to 94 MPH on the four-seam, which is a great sign coming off only 33 IP last season. 

For him to succeed, Morton needs to generate ground balls and he has at a 50% rate and he’s at his best when holding RHH to very little. So far, he’s held both sides of the plate to a wOBA of .270 or lower and the righties are at a 2.02 xFIP. Morton is also sporting an xFIP/FIP combo of 2.85 or lower so he’s been a little unlucky so far with a 3.27 ERA. Teams won’t continue to have a .345 BABIP against Morton and he’s too cheap for the spot against a lineup that should feature just two lefties. 

Starting Rotation 4.14 – GPP Picks

Lance McCullers ($9,900 DK/$9,500 FD) 

McCullers is a pitcher that could wind up chalky but I’m never going to feel great about it. I believe last game he was between 50-60% in cash settings and he didn’t clear 18 DK points. I like McCullers but I will always feel more comfortable with him in GPP. We do have to talk about him adding a slider this year, which has done very well for him.

McCullers has thrown it the most of any pitch and it has six of 13 strikeouts for him on the season. He’s thrown it 63 times and has yet to even allow a hit to go along with the 47.1% whiff rate on it. The ground ball rate of 66.7% is highly encouraging for McCullers as well, though Detroit is 24th in ground ball rate so far. 

McCullers is also down in swinging-strike rate by just a bit but the CSW is up 2.2% so that’s a fine tradeoff. There are some fears here with the walk rate because not only does a 14.6% walk rate put folks on base, it runs up that pitch count in a hurry. The Tigers are only walking 8.1% on the year but McCullers has nights where he needs a GPS to find the strike zone. The other major fear is McCullers has started poorly against LHH. That’s not been an issue through the career, but through the first 14 hitters, he’s given up a .437 wOBA and a 6.45 FIP. Detroit has six lefties projected for the lineup so it has to be at least talked about. If he’s chalky, I’ll eat in in cash but this isn’t the absolute best spot for McCullers. 

Zack Wheeler ($8,400 DK/$9,700 FD) 

I already saw some noise on social media about the “Wheeler Revenge” game and my eyes about rolled out of my head. It’s not that big of a deal, Wheeler got $100 million. I think he’s alright guys. Anyways, he could wind up being chalky on DK because the price is more than reasonable and the Mets have been average. Perhaps the biggest issue for Wheeler is even if the Mets aren’t hitting a ton, they don’t strike out either. Only the Padres whiff less on the season and I’m not sure where the ceiling is for Wheeler. It doesn’t help figure out what version of Wheeler we’re getting when his K rate is easily a career-high at 31.1%. For his career, it sits at 22.6% so that’s a significant gap. 

With that number in hand, it’s not shocking that the swinging strike rate is up 3% and the CSW is up about 7%. The fastball is excellent so far with half of the 14 strikeouts and that’s where things get interesting. It helps when you can blow hitters away with 100 MPH upstairs –

Brandon Nimmo leads the team at 3.1 in FanGraphs rating against the pitch and he’s 19th in baseball so far. After that, Jacob deGrom is fifth on the team against the fastball. You read that correctly. The Mets regular hitters are not doing much against that fastball right now so even with some flaws in the spot, Wheeler could get it done in a big way here. 

Honorable Mention – I’ll at least throw in a mention of Zack Plesac but I’m going to have a hard time getting to him. We talked about this before but he’s looking a lot more like the 2019 version with an 18-20% K rate and that’s not enough to pay the top dollar for. The CSW is under 27% and I think he has the least attainable ceiling of the high-salary group. On the other side of the game, Carlos Rodon is somewhat interesting but the Indians are striking out at the second-lowest rate in baseball. 

Gas Can of the Slate – I used the Braves stack last night and I’ll go right back to the well tonight. The Marlins bullpen pitched five innings last night and now they turn to Nick Neidert who was not good in the first start if we look at the metrics. He only gave up one earned run across 4.1 IP but the xFIP was 6.84 and he walked more hitters than he struck out. The swinging strike rate is only 8.2% and if you can’t miss Atlanta bats, you’re going to get worked over. I’m going to borrow some of what we talked about yesterday – 

The first two have to be Ronald Acuna and Freddie Freeman. Acuna is making an early case for possibly the best player in baseball and has a .531 ISO and .571 wOBA while Freeman has a .360 ISO. Both players are under 18% for their K rate and both have serious upside against a pitcher who can’t strike folks out and throws a fastball 54% of the time. If Acuna walks, he’s got a great shot to swipe second immediately. 

Atlanta has been below average to start but we’re talking around 30 plate appearances. They also woke up last night with eight runs. Also, dial it back to last year and Marcell Ozuna, Travis d’Arnaud, Dansby Swanson, and Ozzie Albies all had a wOBA over .360 and an ISO over .240. All six hitters occupied six of the top nine spots on the Braves against the fastball in 2020 as well. 

Starting Rotation 4.14 Betting Section 

Free Bet 

Record – 9-8

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