MLB DFS Top Plays

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.25

Last night’s slate didn’t turn out exactly how I had envisioned, but we still hit on a lot of solid plays. Maybe the higher end like Trevor Bauer were a little disappointing but overall, it wasn’t the worst night. Lance Lynn and Jesus Luzardo especially stood out so let’s keep building momentum. Tonight’s slate has two of the best arms in the business so let’s get right into MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.25!

Cash Game Options

Shane Bieber

Pitch Data – FB – 19th SL – 18th CT – 25th CB – 18th

Perhaps one of the reasons Bieber has already had a 13 strikeout, 46.2 DK performance against these Twins is the pitch data. Minnesota isn’t in the top half of the league against any of Bieber’s main four pitches. The 46 DK points have been Bieber’s best score to date, so I can’t say I’m extremely worried about the matchup. He still leads MLB starters in total strikeouts, K% and ERA. On top of that, the swinging strike rate is also best in the majors at almost 19%. Still under $11,000 for some unknown reason, Bieber is an incredible option across all formats tonight.

Gerrit Cole

Pitch Data – FB – 3rd SL – 3rd CB – 3rd

Well, talk about a not-so-encouraging pitch data matchup. The Braves sit third vs all Cole’s major pitches and we’d be silly to not consider that. However, Atlanta is also top six in K rate to RHP at 25.6% on the year so there’s absolutely room for Cole to mow them down.

The key for Cole this year has been what type of lineup he’s facing. LHH have actually had some success with a .344 wOBA and an .800 OPS. Additionally, the K rate is 27% versus a 35.5% mark to RHH. The 6.33 FIP to LHH is eye-opening as well. Fortunately for Cole, the Braves lineup projects to be skewed to the right side of the plate with five RHH. I prefer Bieber, but Cole is still talented enough to overcome whatever flaws we can pick at.

Chris Paddack

Pitch Data – FB – 29th CH – 24th

With Paddack relying on these two pitches 87% of the time, they’re the pitches that are most important to look at. I believe the Bieber and Paddack pairing will be the chalk pairing in cash over on DK to afford some offense. With the Mariners having a 22.8% K rate and bottom 10 in ISO and wOBA, it’s hard to argue.

Paddack has only had one poor start this year that has skewed some of his results. Considering it was against the Dodgers in LA, I’m fine giving him a pass. He’s at home tonight and he continues to love it in San Diego with a 2.66 ERA through 23.2 IP. His K rate isn’t spectacular at 21.1% but he is under $8,000. His swinging strike rate is only down one percent so he should see an uptick in K rate. Paddack recorded a 26.1% rate last year and 25% seems reasonable the rest of the way.

GPP Options

Lucas Giolito

Pitch Data – FB – 28th CH – 22nd SL – 12th

This is one of the more interesting picks in MLB DFS: Starting rotation 8.25. If this was last year when Giolito was in full breakout mode, he’d be sitting in the cash options pile. He has had a couple bumps in the road so while I do think he’s right at the cash line, the Bieber/Paddack combo is likely the route to take. Giolito is coming off his best start of the year, racking up 43.4 DK points against the Detroit Tigers. Now he gets the Pirates, who are of little threat.

The K rate and swinging strike rate this season are really right in line for last year for the righty. One thing that has shifted is the walk rate from 8.1% to 11.3%. Since Pittsburgh is dead last in walk rate to RHP, this is less of a concern tonight. Giolito might be lower owned than Cole or Bieber, making him very interesting tonight.

German Marquez

Pitch Data – FB – 30th SL – 1st CB – 9th

As is typical of Marquez, he’s two different pitchers so far this year. He’s been awesome on the road with a 1.93 ERA and .237 wOBA through 18.2 starts. Somebody please trade for him to get him out of Coors. Anyways, he’s in Arizona tonight and the D-Backs offense has been less than inspiring this year. They are 20th or worse in wOBA, wRC+ and ISO so far.

The bugaboo here is the six LHH projected for the D-Backs. Marquez only gives up a .250 wOBA on the road to lefties, but the K rate is only 16.7%. Combine that with a second-best 20.4% K rate for Arizona and there’s risk here. The risk is more “does he pay off price” because I don’t think he gets lit up. I always have shares of Marquez on the road and tonight will be no different.

Adam Wainwright

Pitch Data – FB – 6th CT – 16th CB – 27th

This pick isn’t exactly typical, as I’m not a big Wainwright guy at this point in his career. However, the deeper I looked, the more sense he made in GPP. Splits are important for Waino. Last year he was lights out at home with a 2.56 ERA compared to 6.22 on the road. Through 13 IP at home this year, he’s at a 2.08 ERA and just a .208 wOBA. The opposing lineup composition is important as well.

Waino only has an 11.9% K rate to LHP compared to 24.1% to RHH. The Royals are projected for five lefties, but three have a K rate above 26%. With the Royals being near the bottom of the league against the curveball, that could help Wainwright in a major way. It’s been responsible for seven of 12 strikeouts already. The only two hitters in the positives of FanGraphs rating vs the curve is Whit Merrifield and Maikel Franco. Wainwright could be a stealthy option with Paddack and Marquez both cheaper.

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.22

My goodness, was it an absolute minefield for pitching last night. Walker Buehler, Max Fried and Chad Kuhl were about the only two that hit and Buehler was the only big hit. Past that, it was littered with busted chalk and pitchers that couldn’t get out of their own way. There’s not many more obvious choices for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.22 but we’ll unearth some gems along the way here!

Cash Game Options

Zac Gallen

Gallen was featured today in Picks and Pivots so there’s no need to go over him again.

Zack Wheeler

Pitch Data – FB – 1st SL – 6th CB – 8th CH – 25th

At first glance, it’s not an encouraging matchup for Wheeler via the pitch data. However, some of that is mitigated by the pieces the Braves are currently missing. Yes, Nola fell apart but that seemed more a case of him losing it than anything. He was strong to start and I was as if someone hit the switch on him. Wheeler has a 9.8% swinging strike rate and a a puny 12% K rate.

He’s really cash only (and overpriced at that) because of the K rate so far. His calling card has been no hard contact at 27.2% and no fly balls at 22.5%. Neither side of the plate has over a .300 wOBA against Wheeler but the matchup means we should consider him. He’s certainly not my pitcher of choice. We’d just be aiming for safety here.

Kyle Hendricks

Pitch Data – FB – 10th CB – 4th CH – 16th

Another matchup where the pitch data may not look great, but Hendricks is very good at limiting damage. His ERA hasn’t been over 3.50 since 2015 and the FIP hasn’t been over 4.00 in his career. This year, the K rate has dipped a little to 19.7%. The White Sox might help him out though since they sit fourth in K rate at 26.1%.

Chicago showed last night that the lineup is certainly dangerous. Still, Hendricks doesn’t allow much hard contact at 36.4% and it’s hard to lift the ball on him at a 28.3% fly ball rate. Aiding that metric is the White Sox ranking 26th in flay ball rate to RHP at just 31.8%. Hendricks should be able to frustrate this mostly young White Sox lineup with his craftiness.

GPP Options

Triston McKenzie

McKenzie was also featured in Picks and Pivots so you can check out his breakdown there!

Dustin May

Pitch Data – FB – 8th CT – 20th

May is a really interesting case for this slate. He does throw a curve and a change but not really enough to consider here. I thought about putting him in cash but the reality is he’s only scored above 9.5 DK twice in five starts. Now, he’s still appealing because the Rockies have two different offenses. They have a good one in Coors and they have an abjectly awful one on the road. They even got Buehler a get right spot last night for the first time all year.

Colorado may also help out May’s lack of strikeouts since they have a 27.1% rate to RHP on the road. There’s no discernible advantage from either side of the plate, so the projected lineup shouldn’t be a huge concern from that aspect. I’m not a huge fan of the price but there’s definitely a reason to take the shot here with May flashing ceiling in two starts.

Justus Sheffield

Pitch Data – FB – 23rd SL – 30th CH – 18th

Sheffield arguably has the best pitch data matchup of the slate and that’s very nice tick in his direction. It also helps that he comes cheap still and the Rangers have been rough vs LHP so far. They rank sixth K rate at 27.1%, which should help out Sheffield’s 21.4% mark. Texas ranks no higher than 20th in average, OBP, OPS, wOBA and wRC+ vs LHP. Their best mark is the 18th best ISO, at .162.

The young lefty for the Mariners is combatting a mediocre K rate with a great fly ball rate of just 27.1%. Texas is right in the middle of the pack for fly ball rate at 17th overall. Sheffield is far from trustworthy, but with only one earned run over his past 12 IP he is rolling. The matchup is well worth considering.

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.21

It was quite the day in the Starting Rotation on Thursday! We helped a member with a takedown and really nailed the majority of the picks. Even though Kevin Gausman wasn’t anything special, he still scored 18 DK. The only pitcher that scored under 16 was Brandon Woodruff and we’ll take that every night. Tonight is a good deal trickier but we do have a ton of options to pick from for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.21.

Cash Game Options

Aaron Nola

He was covered in Picks and Pivots today, so you can read up on him right here.

Max Fried

Pitch Data – FB – 9th SL – 13th CB – 10th

This would not normally be a cash pick but the options are fairly limited tonight. Fried draws a tough matchup for a lefty pitcher against the Phillies but he has come through against them once already for 23.7 DK points. He’s upped the swinging strike rate to 12.9% and the overall K rate is at 25.4%. Hitters simply have not gotten the ball in the air or hit it hard at 21.1% and 32.4%, respectively.

Philly should throw out seven RHH against Fried but that actually might help the K upside just a bit. He only whiffs LHH at a 9.1% rate compared to 29.5% to the right side. Fried is one of the better young pitchers in the league and I’ll ride with the talent tonight.

*Note* Bryce Harper is not in the lineup tonight, which certainly doesn’t hurt Fried at all.

Andrew Heaney

Pitch Data – FB – 8th SL – 15th CH – 30th

This is another one that I might not normally love for cash, but it’s always a slate by slate kind of deal. The A’s absolutely have some power vs LHP and that’s a concern. They also lead the league in K rate to LHP at 29.1%. In the first start of the season, Heaney racked up 19.3 DK vs these A’s on just 64 pitches. His last start he threw 101 against the Dodgers, a much better offense.

If Heaney uses that changeup a little more often, it could really give the A’s fits. The swinging strike rate is more than respectable at 12.4%, as is the 24.5% K rate overall. We don’t love an 8.8% walk rate but with Oakland leading the league in strikeouts to LHP, the good should more than outweigh the bad in this spot.

GPP Options

Chad Kuhl

Just like Nola, he’s been covered today. I think on DK, he’s very close to a cash option at his price especially with the options behind Nola not the prototypical picks.

Walker Buehler

Pitch Data – FB – 5th SL – 5th CT – 17th CB – 27th

Buehler is likely the most talented pitcher on the slate overall but there’s no way getting around it – he’s bee awful this year. In four starts, he’s yet to cross 18 DK points and the 5.43 xFIP supports the 5.21 ERA. The K rate is down to 21.3% and the walk rate has skyrocketed to 11.3%. Also, the HR/9 is a massive 2.37 right now and that’s not like Buehler at all.

Eventually, he’s going to snap out of this funk and we want to be on the first big game. His price hasn’t come down at all so it’s not like he’s easy to play. Perhaps the Rockies on the road can bring that first massive game. They rank 20th or worse in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+ on the road to RHP. Additionally, the 25.5% K rate should favor Buehler. It’s a matter of time before he turns things around.

Adrian Houser

Pitch Data – FB – 29th SL – 12th CH – 23rd

Houser is a touch overpriced on DK but we can’t deny the spot for him. The pitch count doesn’t appear to be a concern with 87, 77 and 86 in the past three and he’s scored 14.9 DK against these Pirates once already on 68 pitches. Pittsburgh is approaching 26% in K rate and are bottom five across the board in everything we look at. There’s not much else to write about past the Pirates being the second-worst team to the fastball and Houser uses that pitch 65% of the time.

Lance McCullers

Pitch Data – FB – 11th CB – 17th CH – 9th

I always have a soft spot for McCullers and the pitch data is a little bit better than I thought it might be. The change is the pitch he uses the least, so that helps. We may not love the 45.3% hard hit rate but the 18.9% fly ball rate is beyond excellent. That ranks third among starters to this point.

McCullers doesn’t have an impressive ERA at 5.47 but the 3.95 xFIP suggests that positive regression is on the way. San Diego absolutely has a good offense and doesn’t strike out that much at 21%. The BABIP to RHH is pretty high at .323 so it should be expected to come down as we go. While this isn’t the greatest spot McCullers will ever get, he should be low-owned and he has the ability to shut down any team in the majors on any given night.

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.