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MLB GPP Stacks 9/27

In this article I will be breaking down MLB GPP Stacks 9/27.In this article I will be breaking down MLB GPP Stacks 9/27. I will inform you with at one pitcher and three team stacks that strike my interesIf I am interested in a player on only one site, I will be site specific. I will be using DraftKings pricing for this article.

On this breakdown of MLB GPP Stacks 9/27, we have the final regular season slate to breakdown and we fifteen games to breakdown. Again, the top prize DraftKings is offering is just 5K, significantly smaller than usual. I will likely only have one lineup for this giant MLB slate. With this massive slate there will likely be some weather issues to look at so make sure to check into the Discord Chat rooms to keep updated on that. On top of that I feel with this being the season finale that some lineups could be altered severely, or teams may sit a pitcher to have him in the first round of the playoffs. The Discord Chat room will be your friend today, so join myself and the rest of the WinDaily staff for the potential of tons of slate altering news possible.

Pitcher

JT Brubaker ($7,600)

Brubaker has started to look better striking out nine in his latest outing against the Cubs. He has solid strikeout numbers as he is near 25% K rate against both sides of the plate. A good 15.6% swinging strike percentage with an exit velocity of just 84 MPH to right-handed hitters this season. As for left-handed hitting they have an ISO of just .112 this season off of Brubaker. According to my calculations of the AL Central standings the Indians are locked into the seven seed so shouldn’t have anything to play for. Keep an eye on the Indians lineup and Brubaker could see an even better opportunity for strikeouts.

GPP Stacks

Colorado Rockies

Colorado is going to see a declining Madison Bumgarner as he’s allowed 13 homeruns on just under 37 innings pitched. He has primarily struggled against right-handed hitting, only obtaining an 11.5% K rate and 7.5% swinging strike rate. The homerun numbers show as Mad Bum has allowed an ISO of .357 to right-handed hitters. Struggles against right-handed hitters goes further as he has allowed a .421 wOBA and an average exit velocity of 91.5 MPH. These Colorado righties should be in a prime spot to do some damage against a declining pitcher.

  1. Josh Fuentes (ISO of .286 and wOBA of .338 vs left-handed pitching)
  2. Kevin Pillar (ISO .240 and wOBA of .395 vs left-handed pitching)
  3. Trevor Story (ISO of .295 and wOBA of .447 vs left-handed pitching)

Houston Astros

Houston will matchup against Jordan Lyles, a pitcher that has given up eleven homeruns in 54 innings pitched. Lyles has missed few bats with K rates from both sides of the plate is below 13%. We also see this is evident as he has a total swinging strike rate of below 7%. Another reason to pick on Lyles is his total wOBA of .348. Lastly Lyles has given up an ISO of .261 to right-handed hitters this season. Should be a good matchup for Houston to try to find something before the playoffs.

  1. Michael Brantley (ISO of .202 and wOBA of .395 vs right-handed pitching)
  2. George Springer (ISO of .274 and wOBA of .384 vs right-handed pitching)
  3. Kyle Tucker (ISO of .271 and wOBA of .372 vs right-handed pitching)

New York Mets

Squaring off against Austin Voth the Mets see a pitcher who has allowed 12 homeruns in just 44 innings pitched. That leads him to have an extremely high ISO against right-handed hitters of .323 and an ISO of .230 to left-handed hitters. Voth has also given up an average exit velocity of 90 MPH to right-handed hitters this season. Throughout this season Voth has given up an ISO of .327 to left-handed hitters off his fastball. The Mets are in a great spot to have a good day hitting with the large homeruns per nine innings Voth gives up.

  1. Brandon Nimmo (ISO of .252 and wOBA of .421 vs right-handed pitching)
  2. Jeff McNeil (ISO of .193 and wOBA of .388 vs right-handed pitching)
  3. Dominic Smith (ISO of .339 and wOBA of .427 vs right-handed pitching)

Thank you for reading my article MLB GPP Stacks 9/27, a fifteen-game slate on this Sunday afternoon. As I mentioned earlier if you’re unable to check in and keep updated on information as it comes in this slate won’t be for you. I expect that some teams may rest a starting pitcher or possibly some star players going into these MLB Playoffs. Check into the Discord Chat Rooms to be informed on starting lineups and potential weather issues. Enjoy your Sunday afternoon watching NFL or MLB whichever it may be. As always best of luck and take down a GPP.

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MLB GPP Stacks 9/19

In this article I will be breaking down MLB GPP Stacks 9/19. I will inform you with at least one player per position that strikes my interest and If I am interested in a player on only one site, I will be site specific. I will be using DraftKings pricing for this article.

For Sunday we will be breaking down MLB GPP Stacks 9/19 eight game slate. I will be doing stacks today since the highest DraftKings payout for baseball is 5K again with football back. Today’s highest projected run total is the Yankees vs Red Sox game at ten runs. Pitching this slate could be ugly if Carrasco is held out as the second highest priced pitcher would be Dylan Cease who has a 4.15 ERA on the road. Don’t forget to join myself and the rest of the WinDaily staff In the Discord Chat rooms as we confirm our picks as lineups get locked.

Pitcher

Josh Lindblom ($8,100)

Some players may see that he’s been listed out lately, but it was a short stay on the bereavement list. He has been a strikeout pitcher specifically against right-handed hitters striking out 35% of right handed hitters. Hitters have an ISO of .016 against him which is clearly about as awful as it gets. Much of Lindblom’s struggle has been facing left handed hitters and the Royals have 0 that truly scare me. The Royals also only have two players that have an ISO above .200 coming into this game. The strikeout upside is there and the Royals don’t have good left handed hitters, this should be a fantastic spot for Lindblom.

GPP Stacks

New York Mets

These Mets left-handed hitters draw an excellent matchup against the Braves Kyle Wright. His 7.2 ERA and over 2 WHIP are not the only significant numbers working in the Mets favor. Wright has given up an ISO of .286 and massive wOBA of .502 against left-handed hitters. To put the icing on the cake he hasn’t been missing many bats either with just a 15.5% K rate and swinging strike percentage below 10 percent.

  1. Brandon Nimmo ( ISO of .270, wOBA of .425 and seven of his eight homeruns have been off right handed pitchers.)
  2. Dominic Smith (ISO of .324 and wOBA of .439 against righties)
  3. Jeff Mcneil (has a hit in 9 of his last 10 games and is was too cheap at $3,400)

Houston Astros

We must look at the obvious here which is Madison Bumgarner has been atrocious, specifically against right-handed hitters. Let’s start with he is missing significantly fewer bats as he holds a strikeout rate of 9.5% and swinging strike rate of just 7% against right-handed hitters. Now we take a deeper look at his struggles to find he has given up a humongous ISO of .402 and wOBA of .452 against right-handed hitters this season. We should also remember that this Astros stack although not as dominant is very affordable against a declining pitcher.

  1. George Springer (ISO of .310 and wOBA of .331 against lefties)
  2. Alex Bregman (ISO of .257 and wOBA of .448 against lefties)
  3. Yuli Gurriel (ISO of .333 and wOBA of .416 against lefties)

Tampa Bay Rays

This team is facing John Means who has given up ten homeruns in just 32 innings pitched this season. Means has been bad against both sides of the plate as ISO is around .255 and wOBA around .350 for both sides. For what is worth Means also has an ERA of nine in six home starts and he is playing at home today. I have been attacking Means all season for the evident reason of being unable to keep the ball in the yard. If you don’t want to stack these Rays hitters you can always use them as a one off with Means homerun track record.

  1. Randy Arozarena (ISO of .600 and wOBA of .570 against lefties)
  2. Hunter Renfroe (ISO of .395 and wOBA of .343 against lefties)
  3. Brandon Lowe (ISO of .391 and wOBA of .452 against lefties)

That will conclude this article of MLB GPP Stacks 9/19 for the Sunday eight game slate. We have another Football Sunday to go along with this MLB slate. Should have another Sunday fun day of sports, DFS, and season long fantasy leagues to keep an eye on today. Hop over in the Discord Chat rooms to join myself and all the WinDaily staff as we breakdown any lineup adjustments based upon the release of team’s lineups. Enjoy this glorious Sunday full of sports and thanks for reading my content! Goodluck!

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MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.16

We knew it was going to be a fairly tough slate and the results tended to show. Some pitchers did well like Yu Darvish and Matt Boyd while others were iffy, like Jack Flaherty. Tonight’s slate is great up top with four legit aces and then the bottom really falls out. It’s a night better spent with double aces and being creative with bats, but let’s take a closer look for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.16!

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For a limited time, Monkey Knife Fight is sweetening the deal with a 100% match bonus up to $50. Be sure to check out my picks for tonight after the pitchers!

Cash Options

Jacob deGrom

Pitch Data – FB – 7th SL – 20th CH – 1st

I was joking with Brian that I could likely write Picks and Pivots for him since we get deGrom on a #LesterDay, but I’ll let him handle the second part. In any other spot, the pitching data would give me pause. It doesn’t when it’s deGrom and he racked up 38.8 DK last time against Philly. For some unknown reason, his price actually went down $100 from the last time he was on a regular slate. deGrom should never be this cheap.

The K rate is 37.8%, the WHIP is 0.87, the ERA is 1.67…you start to run out of ways to describe the dominance. The swinging strike rate is an astounding 21.1% and there is literally no reason to not just lock him in.

Gerrit Cole

Pitch Data – FB – 17th SL – 18th CH – 11th

Cole has had a big weakness this year and it’s been lefty hitters (and not keeping the ball in the park). The lefties aren’t a giant concern with the Blue Jays lineup as they don’t have a lot of power lefties to worry about. Cole’s strikeout rate has come down a bit to just 33.2% but that’s still plenty to use under $10,000.

His swinging strike rate is down about 1% from last year but it’s still almost 16%. Cole has shown some flaws compared to last year but the salary is so easy to pay for. The upside is still there as his last two starts have generated 27.9 and 41 DK. To pair up deGrom and Cole for barely over $20,000 is not something to be done very often.

GPP Options

Lucas Giolito

Pitch Data – FB – 12th CH – 9th SL – 19th

I’m not sure I could mount a strong case to not play Giolito in cash, but he would definitely be my third choice. What’s interesting here is he’s coming off a start where he was the overwhelming chalk. Giolito really stunk against expectations in that one. Now the matchup ramps up to get much tougher. I doubt many flock to him given the other options.

Giolito has shown he can get it done against the Twins. He has a 20.3 DK start against this team and they do strike out quite a bit to RHP at 24.9%. The flip side is they are top-eight across almost every single offensive category. He could be the least -used ace of the bunch and that’s worth it alone in GPP.

Aaron Nola

Pitch Data – FB – 5th CH – 3rd CB – 11th

I usually don’t go after the Mets with pitching. The MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.16 could be an exception. They only whiff 21.6% of the time and they lead the league in average, OBP and wRC+ to RHP. However, Nola is a true ace and has got them twice this year. He’s generated 18 strikeouts in two starts and he does have a 35.5% K rate on the year.

Nola pitches better at home with just a 1.57 ERA and he’s a hair better to LHB at a .247 wOBA. He does strike out the right side of the plate at a much higher rate, but that hasn’t bothered him against the Mets yet. Much like Giolito, Nola could be far overlooked on this slate.

Honorable Mention – Brian Singer (I’ll give any RHP against the Tigers a look, especially at the salary)

Monkey Knife Fight

If we’re looking for the most amount of strikeouts in a single game, look no further than the Mets at the Phillies. With deGrom and Nola on the mound, I’m going for broke as they have the ability to post 20 total tonight.

Let’s get after it tonight my friends! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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In this article I will be breaking down MLB GPP Stacks 9/13. I will inform you with three teams that you may stack, with three players from that team that are interesting GPP plays for today’s slate. I will be using DraftKings pricing for this article.

Today we will be breaking down MLB GPP Stacks 9/13 eight game slate. I will be doing stacks today since NFL will take over most of DraftKings focus on Sundays, as the highest top prize offered for baseball today is 5K. I myself am not a huge fan of this slate either, so I may have one lineup for baseball at best. Regardless we are going to break down this Sunday afternoon slate, with the first game on the slate between Baltimore vs The Yankees being the highest total in Vegas at ten runs. In any case of a weather delay or to find confirmed lineups, head over to the Discord Chat Rooms as myself and the rest of the WinDaily staff will be happy to provide the information we contain.

Pitcher

Triston McKenzie – ($8,100)

This young kid has been impressive early in his Major League career, with a WHIP of just .76 and 26 strikeouts in just 21 innings. Now this is a GPP only play as the Twins lineup can go deep very easily and knock him out. You may ask why McKenzie then? He still has great upside with his strikeout percentage is 34.2% and a swinging strike rate of just under 14%. The Twins, who hit the ball out of the ballpark also strikeout a huge amount, as they have five players with a strikeout rate above 30% and seven above 20%. When you add all that together this young pitcher has great upside in this matchup with a reasonable price tag.

MLB GPP Stacks 9/13

New York Yankees

The Yankees are in a great position to stack or even pick just one player with power to go deep (Luke Voit). John Means has given up an atrocious nine homeruns in just twenty-six innings this season. A couple great reasons you can stack against him are. He has only worked from ahead in the count 43% of the time this season, his hard to soft contact differential is nearly 30%, and right-handed hitters have a massive .329 ISO off Means this season. Clearly right-handed bats hit better off Means, so this is my Yankees stack.

  1. DJ LeMahieu (has 0% soft contact vs lefties this season)
  2. Luke Voit (ISO of .469 and wOBA of .416 off lefties)
  3. Aaron Hicks (.352 wOBA and hard hit of 50% off lefties)

Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati is facing another pitcher that has given up homeruns this season in Carlos Martinez giving up ten runs and three homeruns in just seven and one third innings. His other numbers have been terrible as well only showing a strikeout percentage of 13%, hard contact of 60%, and exit velocity above 95MPH 41% of the time this season. Lastly, he is giving up a total ISO of .328 and wOBA of .456. The following are the Reds players that catch my eye based upon their numbers.

  1. Nick Castellanos (ISO of .309 and wOBA of .371 vs righties)
  2. Jesse Winker (ISO of .292 and wOBA of .401 vs righties)
  3. Mike Moustakas (.365 wOBA and 47.8% hard hit rate vs righties)

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers are facing a rookie pitcher that until now has never seen anything above High-A level baseball and it isn’t like he dominated down there with an ERA of 3.5. This lineup offers me salary saving against a young inexperienced pitcher to get my more expensive bats listed above. We have no advanced pitching metrics for this rookie coming from the minors so I will jump into the Detroit bats that intrigue me.

  1. Jeimer Candelario (.243 ISO and .369 wOBA vs righties)
  2. Willi Castro (ISO of .250 and wOBA of .408 vs righties)
  3. Jorge Bonifacio (54.2% FB rate and 66% 95MPH exit velo off righties)

That will end this Sunday’s edition of MLB GPP Stacks 9/13 an eight-game noon slate. We have all major sports playing today so it will be a dream Sunday full of sports for me. It does not look as if we will need to watch any weather for this slate of MLB games today. Which may be a good thing if you set some MLB lineups and then get caught up in watching football. To talk more about NFL or MLB join myself and the rest of the WinDaily staff in the Discord Chat Rooms as we get more of our ideas and thoughts on the table over there.  Have a wonderful Sunday and I wish you the best of luck in all your lineups whether it be MLB, or NFL. Thanks for reading my content and let us make it a profitable Sunday.

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MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.6

Yesterday was an excellent day with no pitcher scoring under 16 DK and we got a gem out of a very cheap Seth Lugo. A lot of the offenses we discussed in Discord fell flat but sometimes that’s just the way a slate goes. Today’s slate features some really bad pitching so it could lead to some chalky options for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.6.

Cash Options

Shane Bieber

Pitch Data – FB – 28th CB – 7th CT – 25th SL – 21st

There has to be a day at some point where Bieber just doesn’t have it. That’s just a law of averages with pitching but there’s not much to suggest that day is today. The swinging strike rate is still 17.6%, The K rate overall is still 42.4% and the ERA, FIP and xFIP are all under 1.90. RHH have the slightly better wOBA at .257 but both sides whiff over 40%. With Milwaukee sitting second in K rate to RHP at 27.2%, Bieber has everything pointed towards him dominating yet again.

Tyler Glasnow

Pitch Data – FB – 23rd CB – 15th

Glasnow remains under $9,000 which simply seems like an error in pricing. He’s figured things out his past three starts, compiling at least 21 DK in all three and 33+ in two. During that time, he’s pitched 18.2 innings and racked up 30 strikeouts while giving up four earned runs. This is the Glasnow that we got at the start of 2019 before injuries ruined his season.

Even with some struggles, Glasnow has dragged the ERA to a 4.24 mark. The FIP at 3.03 and xFIP at 2.56 would continue to suggest there’s room to have bette results and the BABIP is still over .310. That’s not helping Glasnow. His K rate is 39.6% and the swing and miss stuff is up 2% from last season to 14.2%. Miami is sixth in K rate to RHP and Glasnow should flirt with double digits today.

GPP Options

Jacob deGrom

Pitch Data – FB – 9th SL – 14th CH – 1st

deGrom is probably happy to not be pitching against the Marlins. With the scheduling quirks and issues this year, he faced them four straight times his past four starts. I have him in GPP not for risk factor, but for ownership factor. Bieber has been the superior pitcher and has a much better matchup so the field will find the extra $500. If Bieber is off and deGrom is one, you could have a big advantage.

deGrom is another pitcher who has seen his swinging strike rate spike, all the way up to 20.6% this season. The next highest starting pitcher is Lucas Giolito at 17.9%, so it tells you just how nasty deGrom has been. Now, Philly is not a big K team at just 21% and the pitch data would give me pause with a lesser pitcher. I favor Bieber, but deGrom at a potentially low ownership is really fascinating.

Aaron Nola

Pitch Data – FB – 12th CH – 2nd CB – 24th

I really can’t get behind any pitcher lower priced than Glasnow and most of the field likely things the same. So if the ownership flocks to Bieber and then some pitch deGrom, Nola is absolutely worth the look as the third-highest owned pitcher. His K rate sits and what is easily his career-best of 34.3% and he will need it. The Mets only whiff 21.3% of the time and they also have the highest average vs RHP all year.

Nola has only pitched 9.2 innings on the road so far to the tune of a 5.59 ERA but that was one poor start vs the Braves. There’s no reason to think it’s not just a fluke, considering his other road start generated 27.6 DK vs the Nationals. The facet I like for Nola is he’s best to LHH, with just a .100 average and a .187 wOBA. Even the OPS is barely over .400. The Mets projected lineup has six LHH and most of their better hitters are on that side of the plate.

Monkey Knife Fight

Since this is a pitching based article, we don’t talk about offenses too much unless we’re attacking them. It’s a great time to sign up with our link to monkeyknifefight.com and make some bets yourself that are based on offense!

Matt Harvey is on the mound today and has given up a .563 average, 1.736 OPS and a .701 wOBA to RHH so far across 18 hitters faced. That’s not just a small sample, that’s who Harvey is at this point. The FIP is even an outrageous 17.77. These White Sox hitters should have a good day. Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez and Jose Abreu all have an ISO over .265 and a wOBA over .375 vs RHP on the season.

Let’s get after it tonight my friends! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.5

Yesterday was sort of a mixed bag for the Rotation. Yu Darvish and Corbin Burnes were absolutely lights out while Dane Dunning and Jack Flaherty struggled. Dustin May did right about what I figured and Zach Davies wasn’t far behind. Tonight’s slate is bigger but the mid-range and punt categories are a bit tougher to find matches. The top end is loaded tonight so let’s get onto the rubber to figure out who to prioritize in MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.5!

Cash Options

Lucas Giolito

Pitch Data – FB – 16th CH – 26th SL – 21st

This could really be a great spot for Giolito since 57 of his 66 strikeouts this season gave come via the fastball or changeup. He’s also coming on absolute fire, compiling 21 IP, two earned runs, seven hits and 34 strikeouts. Granted two of those starts cam vs the Tigers and Pirates, but he still put up 20 DK vs the Twins. The Royals are more towards the first two offenses and Giolito deserves to be the highest salaried pitcher on the slate.

His swinging strike rate has jumped all the way up to 17.3% and the K rate overall is over 34%, to go along with a 0.74 HR/9. Both sides of the plate whiff at a fairly close rate so there’s not much to worry about there. Giolito is set up to cruise in this one, even though any pitcher can have a rough night anytime they take the mound.

Kenta Maeda

Pitch Data – SL – 26th CH – 15th FB – 4th

Even though the Tigers kill the fastball, it’s the third-most used pitch in Maeda’s arsenal so that helps avoid the tough matchup. The former Dodger has been the model of consistency this year, with only one start out of seven below 19 DK points. Even that one was still 13 so he’s been excellent so far.

His swinging strike rate is a career-high 15.8% which has helped boost the overall K rate to 30% also a career-high. The Tigers can be pesky some nights but they are still leading the league in K rate and Maeda just got them for eight in his last start. Giving up two home runs in that game seems like a fluke since he’s only given up five total on the season. There’s no reason to not consider Maeda in cash tonight.

Justus Sheffield

Pitch Data – FB – 27th SL – 30th CH – 22nd

The format you consider Sheffield in depends on the site. He’s only a cash option as an SP2 on DK, whereas he’s solely GPP for FanDuel. The pitch data matchup really couldn’t get much better, as the fastball/slider combo is 85% of the pitches for Sheffield. Texas whiffs at the sixth-highest rate in MLB to lefties at 25%, which helps the ceiling here. They also rank 29th in OBP, 27th in OPS, 23rd in ISO, 27th in wOBA and 30th in wRC.

The 4.75 ERA is interesting because he also has a 2.94 FIP and a 4.25 xFIP. He may have seen some bad luck so far. Sheffield himself doesn’t have a massive K rate himself at just 22%. The aspect that I think helps cover that is the ground ball rate. Sheffield is respectable himself at 45.6% but Texas leads the league at 53.3%. They also rank bottom-five in fly ball rate, which should help keep the ball in the park. We saw Sheffield score 20 DK two starts ago and he could get there again tonight.

GPP Options

Aaron Civale

Pitch Data – FB – 28th CT – 26th CB – 7th SL – 24th CH – 21st

I’ve been going after the Brewers offense for most of the year and tonight is no different. The jury is still out on Civale as a strikeout pitcher. He was only at 20.3% last year and this season is only at 23.5%. However, his swinging strike rate went from 8.8% in 2019 to 11.2% this year so the improvement could be here to stay. It’s not going to hurt that the Brew Crew whiff 27.3%, second-most in baseball.

They have now had 1,001 plate appearances as an offense to RHP this year and are bottom four across every major category. There’s very little there for them this year. I don’t love the .344 wOBA for Civale to RHH but the projected Brewers lineup only has four. LHH only have a .264 wOBA this year so there’s plenty of room for upside here.

Seth Lugo

Pitch Data – FB – 10th SL – 15th CB – 2nd

This is surely the riskiest play in MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.5 tonight, but when pitchers are priced lower than high-end hitters, we have to look. Lugo is getting stretched out and should throw close to 80 pitches. That may not get us through five innings, and the Phillies do not strike out. They’re the third-best team in that category behind only the D-Backs and Dodgers. Still, Lugo has a 17.1% swinging strike rate thus far through 17 IP. The K rate is 35.4% but it has to be noted that he has only started two games. You’re hoping for the same result as the Yankees game, 12-15 DK and the hitters you can afford with him do the job.

Monkey Knife Fight

Since this is a pitching based article, we don’t talk about offenses too much unless we’re attacking them. It’s a great time to sign up with our link to monkeyknifefight.com and make some bets yourself that are based on offense!

The Bomba Squad Twins get a lefty tonight, and Tarik Skubal has not acquitted himself well early on. Through 32 RHH faced, he’s given up a .407 average, 1.253 OPS and a .495 wOBA. Oh, that comes with a 4.26 HR/9. Of course, 32 hitters does not a career make but these are decidedly not ratios you want to display vs the Twins. Donaldson has a .375 ISO, Cruz has been smashing lefties since the Jurassic Era and Sano has power to spare. His 48.8% K rate doesn’t overly scare me vs a rookie.

Let’s get after it tonight my friends! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.30

Well we can start right off the bat by being very happy pitching is FAR better on paper than yesterday. Frankly, Saturday was a tire fire and it was when we first opened up the slate. Sunday looks light years better and is way more exciting. There’s a few options at seemingly every tier, including at the top today so let’s get after it in MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.30!

Cash Game Options

Kenta Maeda

Pitch Data – SL – 25th CH – 12th FB – 2nd

Maeda also throws in a curveball and a cutter for fun, but not over 4% for either pitch. I assumed one of the biggest changes for Maeda this season was the Twins letting him pitch deep into games. He’s averaging about six innings per start. Last year with the Dodgers, it was 5.8 which is surprising. The biggest change is the K and BB rates, which have gone up and down respectively. Maeda’s 2.21 ERA is backed up by a 2.59 FIP and a 2.86 xFIP as well.

It’s quite nice to see Maeda getting a 15.7% swinging strike rate, which is the highest of his career. He’s also striking out RHH at a 35.4% clip and the Tigers are projected to have six in the lineup today. The pitch data matchup is surprisingly mediocre, but this is a spot where the talent of Maeda should come through. Detroit still leads MLB in K rate to RHP and we shouldn’t overthink this one.

Blake Snell

Pitch Data – FB – 24th CH – 24th CB – 18th

Now that Snell has worked his pitch count up, we can count on him in cash and he’s coming off back to back starts of 90+ pitches. He’s struck out 12 over the past 10.2 IP and the K rate overall is 33.3%, identical to last season. Snell has even cut the walks down just a bit at 7.3%, which is a career-low. The swinging strike rate is a bit low for him at 14.7% but that’s more than respectable overall.

Miami sits at the third highest K rate to LHP at 28% and are 26th or worse in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. Snell has a 3.04 ERA that is almost perfectly matched by the xFIP at 3.05 (FIP is 4.07 but that doesn’t sound alarm bells). He’s really rounding into form and is slightly underpriced for his current pitch count.

Brandon Woodruff

Pitch Data – FB – 30th SL – 15th CH – 25th

One of the better pitch data matchups on the board today, especially since Woodruff throws the fastball 65% of the time. I initially thought about putting Woodruff in GPP. He’s had a small run of not going further than five innings in three of his last four starts. Then I remembered he faces the Pirates and he moved into cash consideration pretty easily.

The last time Woodruff faced the Buccos, he racked up 10 strikeouts and a season-best 37 DK points. I can’t guarantee that result today but it’s not out of the realm of possibilities. His swinging strike rate is 12.9%, a career-high and the overall K rate is 27.3%. Woodruff also whiffs both sides of the plate relatively equally so the splits aren’t a big concern. Five of the projected Pirates starters have a K rate of 23.7% or higher and the price is right for Woodruff.

GPP Options

Dane Dunning

Pitch Data – FB – 11th SL – 17th

I had thoughts of Dunning in cash, but that might be too much of a risk to take. The price is just so low for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.30. He is less expensive than right about 55 hitters today, so the temptation is severe. Dunning was a bit of a mixed bag in his first start against the Tigers. He whiffed seven but gave up three earned over 4.1 IP. That was still worth 14.2 DK and is a home run from a hitter. You don’t get pitchers this cheap, especially ones that actually could strike out hitters.

The Royals are a different matchup as far as K rate than Detroit, sitting at 23.6%. They are 20th or worse in OBP, OPS, wOBA and wRC+ so there is potential from that end. Dunning was a top-five prospect for the White Sox last year so there’s some pedigree involved here. The 23.3% swinging strike rate is intriguing, although the 18.2% barrel rate is scary. The bottom line is Dunning opens up whichever offense you want, so this is a risk worth looking at.

Luis Castillo

Pitch Data – FB – 18th CH – 14th SL – 29th

It’s hard to say use Castillo over Snell given each matchup, but that makes Castillo a prime GPP target is Snell is much more popular. We know that the Cubs are a dangerous offense, sitting in the top 12 in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, OPS, slugging and OBP. The weakness is they’re 24th in batting average and second in K rate at 27.6%. Castillo has only given up a 0.28 HR/9 through 32.1 IP so he could hold down the best facets of the Cubs offense.

Something that really sticks out for Castillo is the .400 BABIP, which is insanely high. That helps explain why the ERA of 3.62 is so much higher than the FIP at 2.06 and the xFIP at 3.10. With a career-best K rate of 31.0%, it’s not hard to see the ceiling that Castillo has today even if he’s not the prototypical cash game option today.

Framber Valdez

Pitch Data – FB – 13th SL – 18th

Valdez has been a revelation for the Astros this year, being their second-best starter by the numbers. I don’t normally attack the A’s with lefty pitching, but Valdez has been phenomenal this season. His starts have included vs the Angels twice, Mariners, A’s and in Coors Field. The lowest DK output in those starts? It was 20.7 DK points against the Mariners.

Valdez has been excellent in tougher matchups and the A’s are a top-four K rate team to LHP this year at 26.0%. Valdez has massively cut his walk rate from 13.4% in 2019 to 5.8% so far in 38.1 IP this year. The ERA of 2.35 is matched by the FIP and xFIP being under 2.85 each. Perhaps the craziest part of his production is it has come with just a 9.7% swinging strike rate and a .307 BABIP. There’s actually room for more and he’s really cheap for his production so far.

Deivi Garcia

Pitch Data – N/A

Garcia is making his major league debut today for the Yankees and he’s even cheaper than Dunning. The risk here is intense but he’s the cheapest we ever get a starting pitcher and if he hits 10 DK, it’s well worth it. Through 40 IP in AAA last year, he posted a 25.3% K rate along with an 11.2% walk rate. He was better to LHH with just a .216 average and .667 OPS given up. That’s a big plus against the Mets.

Garcia’s main calling cards are his curve (Mets rank 23rd) and the big fastball (16th) and the curve has a major spin rate, according to an MLB.com scouting report. I’m always willing to chase talent when it’s cheap and we could conceivably spend $8,500 on a pitching duo today. You could really play a Frankenstein offense after that!

Tony Gonsolin

Pitch Data – FB – 27th SF – 12th

We’re on take three for a GPP option, so this is going to be a quick one. Gonsolin has yet to be scored on this year but the 2.12 FIP is still more than solid. Sure, he’s not going to boast a 100% strand rate forever but Gonsolin is a solid arm. He’s racked up a 2.14 ERA and a 22.9% K rate through 54.2 IP at the major league level.

Texas isn’t a huge K team but 22.5% isn’t sparkling either. Gonsolin’s has given up a whopping .143 wOBA to the LHH so far and I like to see that vs the Rangers. Five of their projected lineup are on the left side of the plate. With Woodruff being cheaper in a better spot, Gonsolin won’t get a ton of ownership.

Monkey Knife Fight Picks

Since this is a pitching based article, we don’t talk about offenses too much unless we’re attacking them. It’s a great time to sign up with our link to monkeyknifefight.com and make some bets yourself that are based on offense!

The Nationals and Red Sox both get amazing matchups today. Zac Godley and Austin Voth are on the mound so we’re going after them. Voth is giving up a .403 wOBA to LHH so Devers is the perfect fit. Godley is just poor to everyone so we’ can pick two stars from the Nationals lineup with ease!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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MLB GPP Picks 8/30

In this article I will be breaking down MLB GPP Picks 8/30. I will inform you with at least one player per position that strikes my interest and If I am interested in a player on only one site, I will be site specific. I will be using DraftKings pricing for this article.

For this MLB GPP Picks 8/30 afternoon slate we will have a ten-game slate to breakdown. The Boston vs Washington game has a projected total of 11 ½ currently which will likely be the largest for this slate. Interesting pricing on pitchers for this slate as no one is priced above 10K and Kenta Maeda is your highest priced pitcher at $9,600. There doesn’t appear to be any weather that to keep an eye on but in case that changes head over to the Discord Chat rooms as myself and the rest of the WinDaily staff stays updated on all news and we solidify our top plays as lineups are confirmed.

Pitcher

Blake Snell – ($9,200)

Finally eclipsing one hundred pitches this season, Snell has shaken his restrictions and appears to have found himself recording nine strikeouts last outing. The Marlins have been awful against left-handed pitching with seven hitters above a 20% K rate and only one hitter with an ISO above .150. With a 33.3% strikeout rate and nearly a 15% swinging strike percentage allows Snell to have huge upside with this matchup.

Catcher

Jacob Nottingham – ($2,300)

Nottingham being a young player that just got called up my biggest concern would be strikeouts. Lucky for Nottingham the opposing pitcher Steven Brault fails to miss bats with a strikeout rate of just 14.1% this season, only getting swinging strikes on 6% of his pitches, and a contact rate of 83.2%. I love this spend down spot for a cheap catcher.

1st base

Mitch Moreland – ($4,700)

Moreland has mauled right-handed pitching this season with an eye-opening ISO of .509, a wOBA of .518, flyball rate of 52.5%, and a hard hit rate of 57.5%. The opposing pitcher Austin Voth has given up a 50% hard hit rate to left-handed hitters this season, while missing few bats. This is a plus matchup for Moreland today.

2nd base

Nick Madrigal – ($2,500)

I’m a big fan of the White Sox facing left-handed pitchers and Madrigal provides some salary relief and can be used with Tim Anderson. Madrigal won’t have to do much to pay off this price tag, as if he gets his first extra base hit that would about get him there. I especially like him because he will likely bat ninth and Tim Anderson bats leadoff, so you get the wrap around the lineup.

Short Stop

Tim Anderson – ($5,500)

Anderson is a tough guy to pass up based upon his success this season against left-handed pitching. Against lefties Anderson has a massive ISO of .786, a wOBA of .764, and a hard-hit percentage of 73.5%. Facing a left-handed pitcher that carries a poor hit percentage of just 1.9% and a swinging strike percentage of only 8.5%. Given this matchup Anderson should have success as much of the White Sox lineup should as they rake left-handed pitching this season.

3rd base

Rafael Devers – ($4,700)

Obviously, the same pitching matchup applies here as Moreland and the stats against left-handed hitters. 41% of baseballs hit in play for Voth have an exit velocity above 95 MPH. Devers has seen right-handed pitching better as he has a soft contact percentage of 6.3% and a hard-hit percent of 50%. This game has a high total so you want pieces from it and I will focus on some Boston lefties.

OF

Juan Soto – ($5,700)

As good of a match-up as you can get for Soto, facing Godley who has given a 44.3% hard hit rate this season. Godley also has a walk rate of above 10% so there should be plenty of scoring opportunities for Washington as this game has a high total. Soto has smashed right-handed pitching with an ISO of .391, a wOBA of .525, and a hard-hit percentage of 63.9%. Soto should have a productive game against Boston today.

That will finish my weekend and this slate of MLB GPP Picks 8/30. Ownership for pitching should be spread out today as several options at the top are viable and none are too spendy. It is a slightly bigger Sunday slate as in the past we’ve had seven or eight game slates now we have ten. With more games we have more lineups and weather to watch so be sure to join myself and the WinDaily staff in the Discord chat rooms as we lock our picks when lineups and weather news trickles in. Thanks for reading my article, enjoy your Sunday morning, and good luck I hope you take down a GPP!

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MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.26

When you write up a pitcher that walks our there and scores 55 DK points and throws a no-hitters, things can’t bee that bad! Lucas Giolito was phenomenal last night and did whatever he wanted to the Pirates. Shane Bieber continued his run of dominance with double-digit strikeouts and if you paired those two up, you were in pretty good shape last night. MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.26 features two premier strikeout pitchers but we also have at least one pitcher at a significant mis-price to go after tonight!

Cash Game Options

Jacob deGrom

Pitch Data – FB – 13th SL – 21st CH – 22nd

deGrom does throw a curveball every now and again, but it makes up under 5% of his arsenal. Really the only nit-pick we an make here is it’s the third straight time for deGrom facing off against the Marlins. I’m not sure it makes him easier to hit, but it is an odd occurrence. Miami is also just mid-pack for K rate to RHP and deGrom hasn’t passed seven K’s or 25 DK in the first two starts. These are still minor concerns.

The righty for the Mets has seen his swinging strike rate jump by 3% this year to 18.3%, top-five in the majors. Unsurprisingly, the K rate is right at his career best of 32.1%. The ERA is under 2.00 and the FIP is a tiny 2.12. He’s one of the best for a reason and should be considered in all formats, and is likely cash chalk.

Dinelson Lamet

Pitch Data – FB – 28th SL – 17th

I’m not sure why DK keeps pricing Lamet so low, but it’s making it really easy to pair up deGrom and Lamet tonight for a potential 20 strikeouts in the lineup. Chris Paddack was flat awful in this same spot last night but those pitchers are not the same. Lamet is sporting a 34.1% K rate on the season to go along with his 1.98 ERA and 2.96 FIP.

He’s been lights out to both sides of the plate with a wOBA of .250 or under to both sides. He does whiff RHH more than LHH, but lefties are still over a 30% K rate. Splits aren’t a huge concern even with five lefties projected. The four RHH have a collective K rate of 29.2% so there’s no real reason to suggest Lamet shouldn’t dominate. He’s also still at least $1,000 too cheap, again.

Clayton Kershaw

Pitch Data – FB – 14th SL – 7th CB – 27th

If you feel compelled to not play the deGrom/Lamet pairing in cash (I’m fairly locked in), you almost have to go to Kershaw by default. I said last start we might not get vintage Kershaw but that’s exactly what we got. He struck out 11 hitters across 7 IP and just 96 pitches. The 32.2% K rate is the best Kershaw has had since 2015, a bad sign for the rest of baseball.

The swinging strike rate is back up over 15% for the first time in four years on top of that. The whiff rate on the slider has jumped by about 5%, which certainly helps explain some things. That pitch has gotten 62% of his strikeouts, where it was 57% last year. The Giants have given Kershaw his worst start of the year, but that is an outlier of the four starts. I strongly prefer deGrom/Lamet, but it’s hard to ever go wrong with Kershaw.

GPP Options

Elieser Hernandez

Pitch Data – FB – 18th SL – 8th CH – 1st

We don’t love the data for the slider and change, but Hernandez does use the fastball over 60% of the time so that helps mitigate the fear. The other factors that point me to Hernandez are the 32.9% K rate to just a 4% walk rate. He’s hit at least 13 DK in all four starts and given up three earned or under in all four. Coming off back to back 20+ DK starts, Hernandez didn’t see a salary raise from $6,600.

The splits really work out in the favor of Hernandez as well. He only gives ups .187 wOBA and .412 OPS to the left side of the plate so far. The K rate is spiked all the way to 40% and the FIP is 0.88. With five LHH projected for the Mets, Hernandez is a great low cost options with the tangible upside tonight. He is my favorite GPP option for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.26.

Jose Berrios

Pitch Data – FB – 24th CB – 22nd CH – 24th

It’s always scary putting Berrios in any article, let alone the next start after a dominating performance. Berrios is consistently inconsistent and getting him right twice in a row could be a lot to ask. Still, the matchup is good on paper. The pitch data really lines up well for Berrios, as does the ninth-highest K rate to RHP for the Indians at 24.7%.

Cleveland is also not above 24th in average, OPS, ISO, wOBA or wRC+ so the offense is one we can target. They do have more talent than the numbers indicate, so there’s sill risk. For Berrios, the 25.2% K rate is right about at his career best mark. The 11.5% swinging strike rate would be the best mark so there’s reason to believe he has some upside tonight. If the “Good” Berrios shows up, he could go for another 25+ DK game like last time.

Kevin Gausman

Pitch Data – FB – 1st SF – 18th CH – 9th

In the long run, there’s not a lot of money to be made using pitchers against the Dodgers. However, Gausman has already faced the gauntlet once and came away with 6.1 IP, six strikeouts and 22.5 DK points. That was on the road to boot. His pitch count has been over 100 for the last two starts so if things got relatively well, six innings is well within reach.

The Dodgers are the best K rate team to RHP but Gausman counters that with a 31.6% K rate of his own. He gets a swinging strike 14.8% of the time and the 4.65 ERA doesn’t match the 3.12 FIP. Pitchers against the Dodgers always come in low-owned, especially one without a real reputation like Gausman. Still, he’s already shown ceiling once in this spot and is capable of doing it again. This is only a play for the bold at heart.

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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