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Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 07/21

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.

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Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Blast. For those not familiar with this contest, you get to pick 3 players that you’ll think will hit a homer. Within the game there are different tiers you can play. .5 you will only need 1 homer to cash and that pays double. 1.5 you will need 2 homers and that pays 5x your entry fee. 2.5 you will need 3 homers and that pays 10x your entry fee. With that said, lets dig in and see where we can find some long balls!

Home Run Blast

Yordan Alvarez vs. Eli Morgan

Eli Morgan is someone that will eventually turn into a solid pitcher. He’s got solid swing and miss stuff when he’s on, as evidenced by his 11.6% swinging strike rate over the past month. That said, he’s still raw and leaving far too many pitches over the plate.

On the year he’s giving up a 53% fly ball rate with a 47% hard hit rate. He’s been pretty consistent across both sides of the plate as both righties and lefties have an ISO of .300 against him. He’s going to throw Alvarez a mix of fastballs and change ups tonight. Alvarez has had a ton of success against change-ups with a .266 ISO against. Confidence Level – High

Rhys Hoskins vs. Asher Wojciechowski

Woj is making his 2021 debut with a spot start for the Yankees. He last pitched in the Majors in 2020 with the O’s. As someone who has watched a ton of O’s baseball, we’re in for a treat tonight. Over the last few years Woj just has not been able to find success at the Major League level.

Since 2019 his xFIP is sitting at 5.53. That’s a pretty high number and it indicates that we should be able to find some fly balls and homers. My lean here is to the right side of the plate as Woj gives up a 50% fly ball rate to righties. To righties, Woj will throw a mix of a low 90’s fastball, slider, and curve. Hoskins has historically done well against all three of these pitches. Confidence Level – Medium/High

George Springer vs. Garrett Richards

Richards has been one of the most affected pitchers in the game since the ban of the sticky stuff. Over his last 17 innings of work he has a 6.03 xFIP to go with 5 homers and 6 barrels. This is someone that we should take full advantage of. The guy here I’m most interested in is Springer. He just lines up so well tonight.

Richards throws his 94 mph fastball almost 50% of the time to righties. Over the last several seasons Springer has a .733 ISO against this pitch with an average distance of 377 feet. That’s just insane. The next pitch he’ll likely see tonight is a slider. He has a .227 ISO against this pitch. Confidence Level – High

Home Run Blast Wrap Up

The three guys I’m picking on tonight have been very susceptible to the long ball. If you want to go a little bit of a different route, JT Realmuto stands a good chance to also homer against Woj and Guerrero against Richards. All three games should see a healthy amount of long balls tonight.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

3 years ago 0 comments

Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife NBA Finals 7.20

David Stowe 3 years ago

written by David Stowe

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Now let’s take a look at Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife NBA Finals 7.20 and see what we have to work with.

Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife NBA Finals 7.20

More or Less:

Selections: Giannis Antetokounmpo over, Devin Booker over

I’m not spending too much time on Giannis as if you are playing any Monkey Knife fight or DFS you know that he has been a man possessed since coming back from his injury, scoring at least 32 points in 3 of 4 contests and over 40 in two of them carrying the Bucks to a 3-2 lead and a possible title tonight. Booker has decided that the fate of the Suns is on him and his shooting woes are finally behind him shooting the ball 28 and 33 times in the last two games with a 35% usage rate. With the officiating crew so quick to blow the whistle inside I think we will see the Suns opt to score from outside a bit more giving Booker even more opportunities to score than usual. He has not been as effective from three-point range lately but that is still the achilles heel of the Bucks in 2020-2021.

More or Less:

Devin Booker: Over Jrue Holiday Over

Already talked Booker above. The Jrue line is a full assist off in my opinion. His floor in the last ten outings has been seven assists with him having at least nine in 7 of 10 and at least 12 in three of them while playing 40+ minutes a game. On the season he only averaged 6.7 a game but at this point in the playoffs, he is also playing around 4-6 minutes more than he typically does. In a contest where the Bucks can close it out, it makes no sense for him to play less than 44 minutes if it stays close making this 7.5 prop one that I would jump on.

More or Less: Let’s get a little crazy

Alright, this is just for fun and what may be a final hurrah so let us throw five dollars at something we can get a 125x return on. I am playing the Scott Foster narrative so if you are someone who plays underneath and can not hit from outside I am giving a bit of a downgrade. CP3 and Middleton do not fit that bill but CP3 has a mental block with him on the court and if I think Jrue and Giannis go off I do not think that leaves much room for Kris. Crowder has been playing much better as of late scoring no less than 10 points in four straight and I think he sees close to 40 minutes tonight. Lopez can shoot from outside and I have some concerns that Ayton will be in foul trouble again. Just have a little fun and play around with this one. I am not taking it too seriously. We may not get another NBA game after tonight.

Extra Plays***

If I see anything else I like I’ll be sure to put it into our Discord before tip.

Hope you enjoyed my Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife NBA Finals 7.20. I look forward to more content covering all of the sports MKF has to offer. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

3 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting

Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 07/19

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

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Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Run Blast. For those not familiar with this contest, you get to pick 3 players that you’ll think will hit a homer. Within the game there are different tiers you can play. .5 you will only need 1 homer to cash and that pays double. 1.5 you will need 2 homers and that pays triple. 2.5 you will need 3 homers and that pays 4x your entry fee. With that said, lets dig in and see where we can find some long balls!

Home Run Blast

Jesse Winker vs. Jerad Eickhoff

In his last 8 innings of work Mr. Eickhoff has given up 6 home runs. That’s almost a homer an inning. He’s a gas can and we should attack him at all costs. The guy that takes him yard tonight is Jesse Winker (and probably others). If we look at the pitch mix that Winker should see tonight we see that he’s set up for success.

Eickhoff will throw his fastball and slider more than 67% of the time to Winker tonight. Against sliders Winker has a .203 ISO and a 47% hard hit rate. Against a very low 90’s fastball his ISO climbs to .238. With the game in Great American Ballpark tonight I really like Winker’s chances of taking Eickhoff deep. Confidence Level – High

Pete Alonso vs. Vlad Gutierrez

The Polar Bear should homer tonight. He’s facing a pitcher that has had some really mixed results at the Major League level. On the year his xFIP is still at a pretty high 5.67. He’s been susceptible to the long ball this year as he’s given up the 6 in his last 27 innings of work.

Gutierrez’s main pitch to righties this season is his 93 MP fastball. Alonso crushes this pitch. Over the last 3 years he has a .564 ISO against this pitch. You read that right. I expect Alonso to take Gutierrez very deep tonight. Confidence Level – High

Adam Duvall vs. Jon Lester

Gone are the years where Lester was a good pitcher. Now, he’s a serviceable pitcher for those playing DFS as he is one of the most attackable pitchers in the game. He just doesn’t have much left in the tank. His last few games have been downright bad.

He’s given up 5 homers in just 19 innings of work to go with a 6.53 xFIP. He’s just giving up way too much contact and way too much of it has been hard contact. Duvall has been hammering left handed pitching this year. His ISO is sitting at .247. If he’s not striking out against lefties, he crushing them. Look for Duvall to be one of the Marlins that takes Lester deep. Confidence Level – High

Home Run Blast Wrap Up

The ball should be flying in Cincinnati tonight. While Alonso and Winker are my top picks to homer from that game, guys like Naquin on the Reds and Conforto on the Mets are also primed to homer tonight. For the Fish, I also like Aguilar to take Lester deep.

3 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting

Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 07/16

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

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Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Run Blast. Every Friday night MKF runs a special contest where if you play in a $5+ Home Run Blast contest and all 3 of your batters hit a home run you get share of the jackpot. Tonight’s jackpot is $10,000!

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some homers!

Home Run Blast

Michael Conforto vs. Chad Kuhl

I should preface this pick with saying that there is risk with this game. You’ll need to monitor the weather up until first pitch before locking in Conforto. If that game plays I really like Conforto’s chances of hitting a homer today.

Prior to last Sunday’s game Conforto went 89 at bats without a homer which was one of the longest stretches of his career without one. As a die-hard Mets fan I know that with Conforto, when he gets his swing locked in he goes on stretches where he hits for a ton of power. I’m hopeful that his homer last weekend before the break is a start of things to come for him.

It also helps that Conforto matches up well with Kuhl. The main pitch that Conforto will see is the are slider from Kuhl. This is a pitch that Conforto has historically crushed. His ISO against the pitch over the past several years is sitting at .300 with a 51% hard hit rate. Confidence Level – High

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs. Jordan Lyles

I’m expecting some regression coming Lyles’ way. Over the past 30 days his SIERA and xFIP are both sitting over 5 while his ERA is at 3.68. He has the lowest CSW of any pitcher on the slate tonight and has an 85% LOB. All of this indicates to me that he’s been skating by with a ton of luck.

Unfortunately for him he’s facing off against one of the best lineups in the business. The guy that I think takes the most advantage of him tonight is Guerrero, fresh off his All Star Game MVP. In looking at Lyles’ pitch mix we see his 93 MPH fastball is the pitch he’ll throw the most to righties. In his career Guerrero has a .378 ISO with a 56% hard hit rate to this pitch. I see no way that Lyles is able to keep Guerrero in the park tonight. Confidence Level – High

Adolis Garcia vs. Robbie Ray

Look, I love Ray as a pitcher. He’s made some huge strides this year with cutting down his walks and improved on his strike outs. Even though he’s made all of those strides, he’s still giving up the occasional long ball and he’s getting tagged by righties.

His fly ball rate jumps from 31% against lefties to 43% against righties. His hard hit rate goes from 36.5% to 43.3%. We know that if we want to take advantage of Ray, we need to do it from the right side of the plate. Insert Garcia. On the year Garcia has a .222 ISO vs. lefties to go along with a .318 wOBA. Really like the chances of Garcia taking Ray long tonight. Confidence Level – Medium/High

Juan Soto vs. Chris Paddack

Paddack has been up and down with his performances since the beginning of the year. He faced off against this Nationals team about 10 days ago and got shelled. I’m not chasing that performance. That’s not why I’m attacking him here. I’m attacking him because of the way he matches up with Soto.

Paddack has a very simple pitch mix. He throws a fastball and a changeup. Soto absolutely crushes fastballs, to the tune of a 70% hard hit rate and .617 slugging % this year. He’s going to face that pitch more than half of the time tonight. With it being in the 90’s today in DC, the ball should be flying. Confidence Level – Medium

Home Run Blast Wrap Up

These are my top picks for home runs tonight. All 4 of these hitters are set up to do well tonight. From a pitch mix standpoint, they line up for success and the pitchers they are going against have shown the propensity to give up bombs.

Good luck and hope to share the $10k with you!

3 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting

Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight PGA Plays 07/14

Matt Vecchio 3 years ago

written by Matt Vecchio

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Today I’ll be highlighting another one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Eagle Eye. Every PGA tournament MKF runs a special contest where if you play in a $5+ Eagle Eye contest and all 3 of your golfers get an eagle during the tournament you get share of the jackpot.

This week’s jackpot is $2,500. Last week there was only 1 winner and that person walked away with $2,500!

This week the PGA holds its final Major of the year, The Open Championship at Royal St George’s GC. With the start time of this tournament being when most of us are sleeping, we’ll want to make sure we lock in our picks today.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some eagles!

Eagle Eye

Bryson DeChambeau

DeChambeau is tied for second this year in eagles with 14, trailing only Cam Davis who leads with 16. A big reason why he’s been able to get so many eagles is this year is due to him being great off the tee.

There has been no one better on the year in terms of shots gained off the tee this year than Dechambeau. His lead is pretty sizeable too. So far this year DeChambeau has an eagle in 2 of the 3 Majors. Can he make it 3 out of 4? I think so. Confidence level – High

Justin Thomas

With this contest, I really try to focus on players that have a high frequency of eagling holes. In Thomas, only 5 other golfers this year have been getting eagles at a quicker pace. Thomas is eagling holes about once every 96 holes. In his last 6 tournaments, he’s had 3 eagles.

One reason he’s been able to do this is by being long off the tee at nearly 303 yards. The other reason is that he’s been one of the best at gaining shots with his approach shots. He ranks inside the top 5 there.

The Majors have been a bit of a struggle for Thomas this year with 1 cut missed and a T21 and T19. I like JT to rebound this week and finish out the fourth major with a strong effort and an eagle. Confidence Level – Medium

Tony Finau

Another guy that’s long off the team is Finau as he’s averaging over 304 yards this year. Finau is tied for 5th this year with eagles with 13 on the year. He’s also 5th on tour this year in terms of eagles per hole with an eagle every 91 holes.

While he missed the cut at the US Open this year he had finished in the top 10 in both the Masters and PGA championship. Like Dechambeau he has an eagle in 2 of the year’s 3 Majors. Look for him to get back on the saddle and have a successful final Major of the year with at least 1 eagle. Confidence Level – Medium/High

Eagle Eye Wrap Up

These are my top picks for eagles this week across the pond. All three of these guys eagle holes more than most and I’ll want to make sure I lock them in.

Good luck and hope to share the $2,500 with you!

3 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting

Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 07/09

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

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Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Run Derby. Every Friday night MKF runs a special contest where if you play in a $5+ Home Run Derby contest and all 3 of your batters hit a home run you get share of the jackpot. Tonight’s jackpot is $5,000. Last week there was only 1 winner and that person walked away with $5,000!

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some homers

Home Run Derby

Matt Olson vs. Jordan Lyles

Olson is my top target for a home run tonight and that’s due to Jordan Lyles being one of my favorite pitchers to chase homers against. Lyles is someone that gives up a ton of fly balls. His fly ball rate over the past 30 days is sitting close to 50%. Anytime you put that many balls in the air you run a big risk of giving up homers.

Well, Lyles has done just that with 5 homers over his last 23 innings of work. Olson matches up very well in terms of pitch mix tonight. Lyles throws his fastball more than 50% of the time vs. lefties. Against fastballs this year Olson is slugging .546 to go along with a 54% hard hit rate. Look for Olson to hit one out of Globe Life Park tonight. Confidence Level – Very High

JT Realmuto vs. Garrett Richards

Here’s some righty on righty crime. Since sticky stuff gate Richards has been a different pitcher. Not in the good way. Over the past month since spider tack was taken away Richards has been giving up a hard hit rate of nearly 43% with a swing strike rate below 8%. So he’s giving up a ton of hard contact.

When you give up that much hard contact it’s only a matter of time before the ball leaves the park. Well against Richards, it has. He’s given up 6 homers in the past 21 innings. I’m siding with Realmuto in this match-up because he’s such an extreme fly ball hitter.

His fly ball rate over the past week is 63%. Pitch wise Realmuto also matches up very well. Richards is mostly throwing his 4 seamer these days. That is a pitch that Realmuto has been crushing this year. On the year he has a .638 slugging and a 65% hard hit rate. If Richards leaves one of those fastballs over the plate to Realmuto tonight, there’s no doubt the Green Monster won’t be able to hold it. Confidence Level – Highish

Rhys Hoskins vs. Garrett Richards

A lot of what I said for Realmuto also stands true for Richards. Hoskins is also an extreme fly ball hitter. Over the past week he’s at 61%. Hoskins is red hot over the past week too with 3 homers and a 1.462 OPS. I don’t see someone like that Richards being able to slow him down. Look for Hoskins to add to the home run total tonight against Richards. Confidence Level – High

Xander Bogaerts vs. Vincent Velasquez

When I attack Velasquez I like to attack him from the right side as he gives up a whole lot more power to them than he does lefties. Righties have a 48% fly ball rate against him this year and a .253 ISO. The two power righties from the Red Sox that automatically come to mind are JD Martinez and Xander Bogaerts. I’m siding with Bogaerts here because he lines up a bit better against Velasquez.

Velasquez is going to mostly throw his 4-seamer to righties as he throws it more than 50% of time to them. On the year Bogaerts has a .600 slugging percentage and a 54% hard hit rate to 4-seamers. His estimated slugging % is almost equal to slugging % so we know he’s performing as expected to it. Look for Bogaerts to take Velasquez deep tonight. Confidence Level – Medium

Home Run Derby Wrap Up

These are my top picks for home runs tonight. All 3 of these pitchers have shown the propensity to give up homers and that’s what we want to chase here.

Good luck and hope to share the $5k with you!

3 years ago 0 comments

NBA Sports Betting

Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Plays NBA Finals 7.8

David Stowe 3 years ago

written by David Stowe

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Suns/Bucks Finals and as you already know I love it. I know this is not the NBA front office wanted but seeing two “underdogs” get to the finals when almost everyone was saying Nets or Sixers and Lakers or Clippers was great drama. Even if the games themselves were sometimes not great. The landscape slightly changes when it comes to the props as Giannis exceeded all of our wildest expectations coming back from injury.

Now let’s take a look at Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Plays NBA Finals 7.8 and see what we have top work with.

Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Plays NBA Finals 7.8

Rapidfire:

Selections: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Chris Paul

A healthy Giannis changes the usage rates for the Bucks massively and they were embarrassed in game one so I expect ABC to take game two on his shoulders in any way possible. I will take him with the bonus points against Devin Booker who I will always say can take over a contest but does not NEED to do with the Suns being a complete team. In that same vein Jrue Holiday gets an almost 11% usage rate decrease with Giannis on the floor and the bonus for him is even smaller than it was in game one. CP3 is also playing amazing ball in every facet, so in what is essentially a pick’em Chris Paul is my guy.

More or Less:

Devin Booker: Under Khris Middleton: Under

It really seems like I am picking on Booker, but I promise you he is one of my absolute favorite players. The points props have never really adjusted to where I think it should be with CP3 on the court. I have been recommending the under in pretty much every game and in five of the last six games it has been the under. Middleton has been collecting about two and a half more rebounds per game in his last 10 games and regression is beginning to kick in. Over the last three contests he has not to exceeded seven boards in two of them and on the season he is a six rebounds per game guy. Add the Giannis factor to the mix and the under feels like the right way to go.

More or Less: Let’s get a little crazy

Alright, this is a just for fun, throw a few bucks at it and see what happens. I will not overkill the analysis on an 8-man parlay. Lopez was still being used with Giannis on the court and Mikal Bridges may get an extra shot or two with Saric’s five minutes or so per game being opened up. Everyone else I have spoken about or hinted at. Do not play this one and expect to win. It is merely a crazy play for the hell of it.

Extra Plays***

If I see anything else I like I’ll be sure to put it into our Discord before tip.

Hope you enjoyed my Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Plays NBA Finals 7.8. I look forward to more content covering all of the sports MKF has to offer. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

3 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting

Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 07/07

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

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Today I’ll be walking you through some of my favorite spots for the More or Less, strike out edition! I picked spots where we have some high strike out teams and low strike out teams. Let’s see if we can find some K’s, and not find some K’s.

More or Less – Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles – Prize 2.5x

Matt Harvey Under/Hyun Jin Ryu Under

A few years ago a 3.5 K total for Matt Harvey would have been unheard of. He would have had that by the third inning. A lot has changed for Harvey over the past few years. His prime was short and he’s well past his prime.

There are a couple of reasons I’m going with under for Harvey. Over the past 30 days Harvey’s K rate is sitting at 12.5% and his CSW is just 24.9%. He’s not fooling batters and he’s definitely not missing any bats.

The other reason is that the Blue Jays have been dominant against righties. They are striking out just 22% against the time and have a high OPS of .787. It’s going to be a short day for Harvey with him getting 3 K’s at most.

A lot of what I wrote for Harvey could also be said for Ryu. Just not the whole being past his prime part. Ryu has been in a little bit of a funk over the past month. He too hasn’t been striking out many batters. His K rate over the past month is almost identical to Harvey’s. It’s sitting at just 12.3%.

His match-up today is surprisingly not an easy one. The casual fan will look at the Orioles record on the year and think they are one of the worst teams in the league. Well technically they are. It’s 100% related to their pitching though as their offense has been pretty good. Especially against lefties.

They have been pretty dominant against lefties this year. They have a high OPS of .767 and just a 22% K rate. I don’t see how Ryu lasts long enough to get his 5 K’s tonight. The under on this one seems like a slam dunk.

More or Less – Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers – Prize 2.5x

Kyle Gibson Over/Casey Mize Under

This game has two teams that have high strike out rates. Starting with Gibson, he’s facing a projected lineup today that has a 28% K rate to righties on the year. While Gibson isn’t a high strike out pitcher, he’s shown the ability on occasion to dial it back and rack up some K’s. In his last 12 innings of work he has 17 K’s. With the Tigers high propensity to strike out against righties, I really like this spot for him to get his 6 K’s today and hit the over.

Casey Mize also gets a team that strike outs at an above average rate, but I just don’t think he has enough swing and miss stuff to get his 5 strike outs today. Mize is going to face a pretty left handed lineup today and if we look at his metrics he has just a 21% K rate against lefties.

If we look even deeper, he’s going to throw a ton of mid 90’s fastballs today with a mix of sinkers. It’s two pitches that the Rangers normally fare pretty well against. Look for Mize to keep it under 5 K’s today.

More or Less – Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels – Prize 2.5x

Eduardo Rodriguez Under/Andrew Heaney Under

We have a battle of the south paws in Los Angeles today. Both the Angels and Red Sox have been two of the better teams vs. lefties this year so I’m expecting short outings from both pitchers.

Starting with Rodriguez he’s facing a projected Angels lineup that has a 22% K rate vs. lefties this year. While Rodriguez has gotten 7 K’s or more in 4 of his last 6 outings, they were against teams that strike out more than the Angels do. I just don’t see him having the K strength to get to 7 today.

Heaney gets an equally tough match-up today as he’s facing a Red Sox team that doesn’t K much against lefties. They have just a 21% K rate vs. lefties and hit for a lot of power with a .173 ISO.

The Red Sox should throw out 7 righties today so expect to see a ton of fastballs from Heaney. If we look at how they have fared against his pitch type we can make the assumption there won’t be many K’s for Heaney. 6 would be super tough for him. Going with the under here.

3 years ago 0 comments

NBA Sports Betting

Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight NBA Finals 7.6.

David Stowe 3 years ago

written by David Stowe

CLAIM OFFER

Now let’s take a look at Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight NBA Finals 7.6.

There was no way that I was going to miss tackling game one of this Suns/Bucks finals contest. With Giannis doubtful there are several props that look like solid spots to take advantage of this evening so let us take a look and make a little cash along the way.

Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight NBA Finals 7.6.

More or Less: 3.6x ROI

Devin Booker: Under/Khris Middleton: Over

I have been staying with the under for Booker when the Suns are at full strength and more often than not it pays off. It is not that I do not think he can I just do not think he will need to. The Suns have a ton of guys who can produce on the offensive side of the ball and I think the Suns handle this one pretty easily this evening. Add in that booker has only exceeded that number once in his last five and that was their lone loss against the Clippers and it all adds up to the under. Khris Middleton, on the other hand NEEDS to do it for a chance to win. I expect CP3 to be on Jrue and when he drives he will be met by Ayton under the glass. That leaves Middleton and his mid-range game being the de-facto primary option.

Rapidfire: 3x ROI

Picks: Khris Middleton, DeAndre Ayton

If you read my showdown article you already know Ayton is my guy tonight. The Suns will not make the same mistakes that the Hawks did when it comes to being aggressive on the glass and if you watched game six, while the Bucks won they completely went away from being aggressive on the glass with Portis and Lopez and opted to stay spread out and let Jrue drive to the rim all night. Yes, it worked but that was a terrible choice from a scheme standpoint and if they do that again Ayton is going to end up with 20 boards tonight. I already discussed the whole Khris v Booker scenario. I like Khris straight up so if you want to give me 1.5 points on top of that I will take it 10 times out of 10 in this situation.

Rapidfire: 5x ROI

Picks: Middleton, Ayton, Holiday

Let’s talk Jrue v Paul since we have already talked about the other two. If you are feeling a little froggy and want to take on a riskier play with a five times return on your investment here you go. I expect that Jrue will find it much more difficult to drive to the basket than he did against the Hawks and ultimately have some issue scoring due to that. At a certain point that will result in a change of game plan where instead of driving to score he will do so to bring the defense in and he is going to distribute to guys like Middleton, Lopez, and Connaughton for open mid-range/ 3-point shots. His points will be down but his assists will be up in that situation.

Extra Plays***

If I see anything else I like I’ll be sure to put it into our Discord before tip.

Hope you enjoyed my Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight NBA Finals 7.6. I look forward to more content covering all of the sports MKF has to offer. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

3 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting

Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 7.4

David Stowe 3 years ago

written by David Stowe

CLAIM OFFER

Before we get started I just wanted to take a moment to wish everyone a happy and safe Independence Day or Happy Treason Day if you live over the pond. We have five MLB games that we have to choose from on this beautiful July afternoon and I am going to find you a few areas to target and make a little cash. Now let’s take a look at Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 7.4.

Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 7.4

More or Less: Cubs at Reds

Miley: OVER Hendricks: Under

The Cubs are an absolute mess and have been striking out at a higher clip than any other team in the Majors over the last couple of weeks with no less than 11 K’s in 8-10 and no less than 8 K’s at in any of them. Throw in their abysmal .215/ .289 BA OBP on the road and Miley’s 5.5 looks more than reachable. We all know what Hendricks does and you can almost set your clock to it. 6 innings, 90 pitches, 4-5 K’s, rinse, repeat. I opt for the under today simply because the Reds are mashing this season and even better than their baseline suggests against groundball pitchers slugging .476 with a 123 tOPS and are only striking out at a rate of 7.66 K/9.

More or Less:

Poor Detroit. Year in and year out they are one of the worst teams in baseball and 2021 is no different. They are the very worst in the league with a 27% strikeout percentage, 7th worst with a .150 ISO, and 9th worst in hits per game with 7.69. Now they get Lucas Giolito who has a 29.4% K-Rate and has already started against the Tigers twice striking out nine in each contest. This could go to 8.5 and I would still be good. Matt Manning may not get out of the second inning today and in three contests this season he has not exceeded 3 K’s in any of them and he was awful in Triple-A before being called up with an 8.07 ERA across seven starts. The White Sox are middling in more offensive categories this season but Manning really has no business being in the Majors at this point and the vast majority of his pitches are four-seamers right down the middle of the plate at 93 mph. This is going to look like batting practice.

Giolito: OVER Manning: UNDER

Home Run Derby: Orioles at Angels

My picks: Ohtani, Walsh, Mountcastle

I feel for Thomas Eshelman, the Orioles, and Orioles fans this afternoon. This is a perfect storm for the Angels to smash today. His K rate in a tiny sample is 7%, opponent launch angle is 21.7 percent (which is optimum against pitches under 80 mph which account for around 52% of his pitches), wind blowing out to center at around 10 mph, and oh yeah he has to compete against two of the top seven home run leaders in Jared Walsh and Shohei Ohtani. For my Orioles player, I am going to roll with Ryan Mountcastle who is hitting lefties well with a .506 Slugging percentage and four of his 14 home runs in 81 at-bats. Choose your goal based on your tolerance but I keep it simple and opt to double my money.

Extra Plays***

If I see anything else I like I’ll be sure to put it into our Discord before tip.

Hope you enjoyed my Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 7.4. I look forward to more content covering all of the sports MKF has to offer. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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