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Minnesota Twins

MLB DFS Aces and Stacks (July 5)

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Happy Hump Day! Tonight we have ourselves an 11-game slate of MLB DFS. At first glance, this slate brings us some strong matchups both on the mound and at bat. We a pitcher in Justin Steele with a beautiful matchup and we also have the Braves in another matchup where they should absolutely smash. Let’s see if those can be some building blocks for us today.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Justin Steele vs. Milwaukee Brewers

If you’ve been following me this season, you know that I’ve been targeting lefties vs. the Brewers. Last time out, we went with Dick Mountain against them and he proceeded to turn back the clock and get 17 DK points at a $6.2k salary. Now Justin Steele is way more expensive than Hill was so he isn’t even remotely a value play, but he’s been pitching amazingly and this matchup screams ceiling-type game for the young Cubs hurler.

He’s coming off back-to-back 27 DK point outings. In those games, he combined to strike out 14 batters in 12 innings of work. I’ll take a more than 1:1 ratio every day of the week and with a matchup vs. a Brewers team striking out nearly 28% of the time vs lefties, there’s some serious K upside for Steele tonight.

Pablo Lopez vs. Kansas City Royals

We saw Kent Maeda have his way with the Royals yesterday, striking out 9 in 7 innings of work and allowing just 1 ER. With how well Lopez has been pitching, there’s no reason to think that he can’t come close to duplicating that. Over the last month, Lopez has a 31.5% k rate and a 71% first strike rate.

He’s been doing an amazing job staying ahead of hitters and that’s helped him get at least 20 DK points in 4 of his last 5 starts. He’s also been getting a 31% chase rate against hitters as well. Lopez should be able to return value tonight even though he’s priced over $10k. There’s little to this Royals lineup that scares me these days. Going double aces with Steele and Lopez is very much in play.

Other pitchers that will be in my player pool tonight will be Bobby Miller vs. the Pirates, Kodai Senga vs. Arizona, and Jose Berrios vs. Chicago. Berrios has been lights out since mid-May and should be able to do well vs. a team in the White Sox that is worlds better vs. lefties than righties.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Minnesota Twins vs. Alec Marsh

We don’t have much to go with Alec Marsh in the big leagues as he’s only made 1 start and that was against the Los Angeles Dodgers a week ago. What we do know though is that he got absolutely shelled in that outing. In just 4 innings of work, Marsh gave up 2 homers and 5 ER. He also managed to give up 6 hits and 4 walks for a WHIP of 2.5.

I’m not going to sit here and compare the 2 offenses and they are in different leagues, but the Minnesota Twins have a very competent lineup and can put up runs in spurts with the best of them. Just yesterday they put up a 9 spot against this same Royals team. They should be able to put up a healthy amount of runs again today in a pristine matchup.

With this stack, I’m going to prioritize getting the big 4 into this lineup. That’s Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Max Kepler, and Alex Kirilloff. Each of them has been hitting the ball extremely well over the last week and with me, recency bias outtakes everything else. Kepler has been the best of the 4 as he has a 1.251 OPS over the last week. It’s great to finally see him putting it together on a more consistent basis. He’s also just $2.8k tonight. Makes paying up for Buxton and Correa that much easier.

Kiriloff is another key value piece here. He’s been extremely productive as he has 7 hits in his last 18 AB. Most importantly though, Kirilloff is only $2.7k on DK tonight and opens up just a ton of breathing room for us money-wise. Joey Gallo is also in play here, but he’s more reserved for GPP only.

New York Mets vs. Tommy Henry

It hasn’t been often of late that I’ve gotten to write up my New York Mets. That changes today. The Mets are coming into this one with their first 3-game winning streak since 1990. They are also undefeated so far in the month of July. This all after having one of their worst months of baseball in team history. The thing is the offense was rarely the reason for them losing. They were still able to put up some runs, the bullpen just couldn’t keep the lead.

They get a strong matchup tonight vs. Tommy Henry. Henry over the last has pitched to a 4.61 ERA and a nearly 5 xFIP. He’s been giving up bombs at a pretty quick pace, with 6 in his last 27 innings of work. We’ll want hitters from both sides of the plate here as Henry has struggled against both righties and lefties.

I’m starting my Mets stack with Francisco Lindor and Alvarez. The Francisco brothers! After struggling throughout the month of June, Alvarez has really come alive in July. He’s homered in 2 of his 3 games and stands a really solid chance of taking Henry deep tonight. Lindor for the most part has played extremely well since the birth of his most recent child. He’s already up to 17 homers this season and 55 RBI. He’s one of the top offensive SS in the league and should smash in this spot.

We’ll also want the polar bear, Pete Alonso. Things haven’t come overly easy for him recently, but against a bad pitcher like Henry he should do well. Other bats to include here will be Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, and team MVP Tommy Pham.

As is always the case, the Braves are very much in play. Cal Quantrill has 3 straight negative point games. That’s pretty horrific. You know the normal plays here. I also like the Dodgers vs. Osvaldo Bido.

MLB DFS Summary

This is shaping up to be a fun slate of baseball. Some really good pitchers in great spots and some really clear spots for offense.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 24)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Monday and we have a very manageable 7-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through. We are now close to a month into the 2023 season and some things have become abundantly clear. The A’s are bad, very very bad. The Tigers are bad, very very bad. These are 2 teams we’ll often want to pick on with pitching and stacking. Tonight will be no different.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Spencer Strider vs. Miami Marlins

From a pure strikeout standpoint, there isn’t a single pitcher on tonight’s slate that has the upside that Spencer Strider has. Through 22 innings of work this season, Strider is already up to 36 K’s. That equates to a massive 14.73 k/9. The next closest person pitching tonight is Lance Lynn at 11.81. Add in the fact that he’s facing the Marlins and we have a pitcher that has immense upside tonight.

He’s the clear SP1 tonight and I don’t think it’s even close. He’ll be a lock in my lineups tonight. I’d only recommend fading if you are MME. Let’s not overthink this one.

Jordan Montgomery vs. San Francisco Giants

Lefties vs. the Giants will be a thing this season. They are at least for now. We saw Joey Lucchesi, the same pitcher that hadn’t pitched in close to 2 years, absolutely mow this team down the other night. The projected lineup tonight for the Giants has a 27% k rate vs. lefties and a sub .300 wOBA. They’ll get the luxury of facing off against Jordan Montgomery tonight.

While Montgomery is never a safe pick, he has shown at times to have some upside. He struck out 9 Brewers a couple of weeks ago. I tend to only use him when the matchup is solid and tonight’s matchup is solid. You’ll need a bottle of Tums, but he should do well tonight.

Colin Rea vs. Detroit Tigers

We just saw a questionable Baltimore Orioles pitching staff take full advantage of a bad Tigers lineup. Colin Rea will be making only his third start of the season but oh what a spot this is for him. He too is far from safe, but we’re limited with pitching options today as many of the teams are on the back ends of their rotation.

We’ve seen some mixed results from Rea this season. He dominated the Padres in his initial start but came right back down to earth against a very good Mariners lineup. With the Tigers being so bad, I’m willing to roll the dice here on Rea.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Los Angeles Angels vs. Ken Waldichuk

Until they prove otherwise, I will be stacking against the A’s on most nights. They currently have a -103 run different on April 24. The next closest team is the Colorado Rockies at -54. They are giving up runs in the teens on multiple occasions each week. Just this week alone they gave up 18 to the Rangers and 12 to the Cubs. The week before they gave up 17 to the Mets and 12 to the Orioles. On any given night, there is blow-up potential and with Ken Waldichuk on the hill tonight, it’s there again.

Has he pitched better of late? The box score says yes. I’m not buying it though. I’m going to stack against him with a team that has a .359 wOBA vs. lefties this season and a .813 OPS. The Angels can get to lefties and they’ll face a beatable one tonight.

My priority in this lineup are 2 lefty crushers. One guy goes by the name of Mike Trout and the other is Hunter Renfroe. Renfroe has been a beast against lefties so far this season. He’s up to a .333 ISO and a .566 wOBA. There’s an excellent chance that he takes Waldichuk deep tonight. There’s not much I need to say about Trout. He’s an excellent play every night, and tonight is exaggerated with a bad pitcher on the mound.

Shohei Ohtani is also very much in play in this L/L matchup. On the year, he has a .379 wOBA vs. lefties and can excel here. Other bats I really like on the Angels are anyone that it’s in the lineup. They are all in play.

Minnesota Twins vs. Jhony Brito

One of the things I like to look at when picking stacks is how many barrels a pitcher has given up. Barrels are a good indicator that a pitcher either makes mistakes and leaves the ball over the plate or the hitters just get a good look at what he’s throwing. Brito has given up 7 barrels already this season in just 15 innings of work. That’s an extremely high number of barrels in not a lot of innings of work.

With Brito, we want to focus on righties. He’s as extreme of a reverse splits pitcher as there is. Righties have a .445 wOBA vs. him this season vs. a .189 for righties. The ISO is also significantly higher for righties.

Knowing this, the first 2 batters I want to look at are going to be Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa. There are few players in the game that have the type of upside that Buxton brings to the table. His only problem has been the ability to stay healthy. So far this season he’s been able to stay on the field and has hit safely in 4 straight games. With a beatable righty on the hill, he should be able to make it 5 straight with a full stat line.

Correa should also excel here. Brito is a sinker ball pitcher. Over the last few years, Correa has a .415 wOBA vs. righty sinkers. Other bats to look at here will be Jorge Polanco, Jose Miranda, and Michael Taylor.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Lance Lynn

I’m not opposed to attacking Lance Lynn tonight. So far this year we haven’t really seen the Lynn we’ve grown accustomed to over the last several seasons. All of his metrics are at or nearly at career-worst marks. Has the big fella hit the wall at age 35 season? It’s quite possible.

While the strikeouts are still there, the BB/9 and HR/9 are insanely high compared to his career numbers. He’s coming off a start that saw him give up 5 ER to the Phillies. We’ll attack him until he gets things right if that happens at all.

The bats I want to prioritize here will be Vlad Guerrero and Matt Chapman. While Chapman has cooled a little bit after his torrid start, he still has 3 barrels over the last week which has resulted in 2 homers. He’s done well vs. righties this year with a .426 wOBA. Vlad Jr. has also done well vs. righties this season with a .254 ISO and a .394 wOBA. Other bats I’ll look to here will be George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Daulton Varsho.

MLB DFS Summary

I’m going to prioritize getting Mike Trout into my lineups tonight. I normally shy away from prioritizing a super expensive player, but he has so much upside tonight in this matchup vs. an awful team.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 5)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

We’ve got day baseball! On this fine Wednesday, we have ourselves a 9-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through. As we look at who’s on the mound, we have pretty much every end of the spectrum possible. We have the best pitcher in the game in Jacob deGrom. We have the worst pitcher in the game Patrick Corbin. And we also have one of the top prospects in all of baseball making his major league debut in Grayson Rodriguez. What a Wednesday!

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Jacob deGrom vs. Baltimore Orioles

I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Jacob deGrom in the aces section of this article. Yes, the Orioles lineup has been on fire. And yes, deGrom looked somewhat human in his first appearance this season vs. the Phillies. Even though he gave up 5 ER in less than 4 innings of work, he still managed to strike out 7 Phillies. The rough outing isn’t something that normally happens with deGrom and it’s something we have to expect was just an anomaly against a really good Phillies.

This Orioles lineup has been really good to start the year, but they’ve yet to face anyone with the skillset of deGrom. Look for deGrom to settle down in his new home and have one of those dominant performances we’ve all come to love from him.

Pablo Lopez vs. Miami Marlins

The Marlins have been a complete mess against right-handed pitching so far this season. Kent Maeda, a pitcher that missed a whole season, was able to strike out 9 Marlins in just 5 innings of work last night. Through the first week of the season, the Marlins have a strikeout rate of over 32% against righties and have hit for almost no power with an ISO of just .124. Their wOBA so far against righties this season is a whopping .276.

There’s also a narrative in this pick. Pablo Lopez spent the first 5 years of his career with this same Marlins team before he was shipped out to Minnesota this offseason for Luis Arraez. Lopez will surely be amped up today facing his former teammates and I expect him to come out on top. At just $7.4k on DK today, we’re getting a pitching that has as much upside as anyone on the hill today.

Dylan Cease vs. San Francisco Giants

Dylan Cease is coming off a dominant performance against the reigning World Series Champions Houston Astros. In the game, Cease struck out 10 hitters in just over 6 innings of work. His stuff was electric as he had a nearly 35% chase rate. Cease is in the upper echelon of pitchers these days and he proved why in that initial outing. If he struck out 10 Astros, there’s no telling what he can do against this Giants lineup that has a 29% strike-out rate vs. righties to start the year.

I didn’t mention him in my top 3, but I also really like Christian Javier today vs. the Tigers. He should be able to dominate that lineup today.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Patrick Corbin

You guys know the drill by now. When Patrick Corbin is on the mound, I stack against him. More often than not, it’s a successful strategy. Add in that he’s facing a strong Tampa Bay Rays lineup, and I’m even more interested in stacking against him today. Corbin is just a bad pitcher. There’s no way to sugarcoat it. In his first outing of the year, he gave up 3 barrels in just 3 innings of work. A 1:1 ratio of barrels to innings pitched is not a good ratio. The only thing that Corbin had going for him in his 2023 debut was that he gave up a 64% ground ball rate. If that number goes down today, the damage that can be done by the rays is immeasurable.

Core: My core with the Rays starts with Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco, and Yandy Diaz. These 3 guys sit at the top of the lineup and have been extremely productive to start the year. Aroz is my favorite of the bunch as he’s started out the year on fire. He’s in safely in all 5 games and has scored a run in all but the opener. Diaz is coming off a monster game yesterday that saw him go 2-4 with 3 runs scored and 3 RBI. He should continue to have strong games in matchups like the one he has today.

Secondary/Value: Other guys that will have my interest in this lineup will be Isaac Paredes, Harold Ramirez, Jose Siri, and Manuel Margot. Basically, if you’re in a Rays jersey today, I’ll have some level of interest in you. All of these guys mentioned though are extremely cheap considering that matchup. They make for great value plays to fill holes in your lineups today.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Corey Kluber

Corey Kluber is now in his 13^th MLB season. He’s had a remarkable career that has seen him pitch at an ace level for many years. We are now far removed from that though. What we are seeing at this point from Kluber is a pitcher at the tail end of his career. His first outing in the 2023 season could not have gone any worse than it did. In just 3 innings of work, Kluber managed to give up 5 ER and was smacked around for a 55% hard-hit rate. The Pirates’ lineup isn’t at the same level as the Orioles, but they do have some young hungry hitters that can absolutely do some damage against an aging pitcher in Kluber

Core: My Pirates stack will be built around Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds. Reynolds has started out the season strong, with a 1.502 OPS. He’s already up to 4 homers in the young season and 6 RBI. He’s enhancing his trade value and also enhancing the numbers that will be on his potential Pirates extension. I also really like Cruz today. He’s always a risk to get you multiple strikeouts, but he has one of the quickest bats in the game and can absolutely take advantage of any Kluber mistake today.

Secondary/Value: I’ll also have some level of interest in guys like Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jack Suwinski, and Ji Hwan Bae. The numbers for Hayes so far have been pretty brutal. He has just 2 hits in 20 AB. But the positive with him is that he’s putting the ball in play, he’s just been extremely unlucky with a .118 BABIP. At some point those balls will find the hole, could it be today?

Minnesota Twins vs. Jesus Lazardo

The final numbers for Jesus Lazardo were pretty good in his first outing against the Mets. He gave up 0 runs in his nearly 6 innings of work. He also struck out 5 and gave up just a 25% hard-hit rate. There’s a big difference though between the Mets lineup and the Twins lineup. The Mets have struggled vs. lefties over the last couple of years while the Twins have dominated against them. This is a Twins lineup that can really give Lazardo some fits today.

Core: The top 2 guys in this lineup are 2 guys that can really do some damage to lefties. Both Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa had great years in 2022 vs. lefties. Buxton, when healthy, is a dynamic player that can do a little bit of everything. He hits for power and can swipe a base or 2. In 2022, he had a .337 ISO vs. lefties and a .376 wOBA. Correa also had a great year vs. lefties in 2022 as he had a wOBA over .400. Both guys can excel in this matchup today.

Secondary/Value: I also like Kyle Farmer, Jose Miranda, and Christian Vazquez in this matchup. All 3 guys can handle lefties well and are reasonably priced today. Farmer is my favorite of the 3.

MLB DFS Summary

We have a little bit of everything today. Aces and gas cans. Rays will be popular today, but for good reason. They are in a great matchup in a great hitting environment today.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 10/2 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s nine-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The ugliest weather is in St. Louis, and there’s a good shot at a delay or postponement there. Some other trouble spots to be aware of as well, but the Cubs-Cards is the worst of it.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Lucas Giolito ($9,900)

Giolito has pretty balanced splits against both sides of the plate, which is a good thing when facing a Tigers lineup that’s full of switch-hitters. While there are some rain concerns in this game, most of the heavy stuff probably stays south of the ballpark, and there’s a good chance they just play through some lighter rain. It’s one of the early games, so we’ll have to check back on the radar before lock and hopefully get confirmation there’s no late start or delay — which could complicate things. But I love his upside on a slate where Corbin Burnes and Julio Urias both have tough matchups and could have an early hook. The White Sox righty, on the other hand, should go a little deeper into this game and has the highest projected FD total of the slate — and the most upside. Aside form his last start in Detroit on July 4, he’s handled the Tigers (who have the third-highest K rate in MLB) pretty well this season. Giolito is a fine play in all formats.

GPP Value Play: Chris Flexen ($9,100)

Flexen isn’t a dazzling SP option, but he’s usually god for 5-6 Ks and almost always pitches 5-7 innings — an important factor when we consider the stage of the season we’re at. The Angels are sporting the second-worst team wOBA in baseball over the past 14 days (.273) with a paltry .218/.302/.322 slash line in that span. Flexen’s upside is capped at around 50 FD points, but he’s got a great shot at hitting 35-40 points if you’re looking for some safety. As long as he stays away from throwing too many cutters (the Angels hit that pitch relatively well), he’ll have success with his fastball/curveball combo.

Contrarian GPP Play: Zac Gallen ($8,400)

Gallen hasn’t had the season many hoped for, as the righty showed lots of promise during his first two seasons in the big leagues. But he’s been a thorn in the side of the Rockies, pitching well in his last start in Coors (7.0 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 0 ER and 9 Ks — good for 52 FD points on Aug. 21). Even when he got “rocked by the Rockies” earlier in a home start, he struck out seven batters. I love him as a cheap contrarian play who could have a ceiling game against a lineup that’s got nothing to strive for except their pride.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves

I’m assuming the Braves won’t sit everyone again tonight since the lineup core got a breather on Friday, but we’ll have to check back before lock to make sure they’re playing. Even with an early yank, these hitters have plenty of upside and could pile up some runs in the first few innings facing Mets SP Trevor Williams. The priority bats are Freddie Freeman ($3,900), Jorge Soler ($3,400), Adam Duvall ($3,300), Eddie Rosario ($3,000). Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies would be in play, but are expected to get the night off.

GPP Value Stack: Minnesota Twins

The Twins have a slew of excellent hitters in absolute SMASH spots tonight versus Royals SP Kris Bubic, and I’ll be starting my stacks with Jorge Polanco ($3,600), Byron Buxton ($4,100) and Josh Donaldson ($3,400). We can choose our fourth hitter from riskier but high-upside cheaper options like Mitch Garver ($3,100), Miguel Sano ($2,500) and Brent Rooker ($2,200). They’ll be my primary GPP stack and should produce a lot of fireworks tonight.

GPP Value/Contrarian Stack: Arizona Diamondbacks

We don’t write up the D-backs much in this space, but they matchup up well against Antonio Senzetela, who’s been okay this season but has struggled through his past few starts. I’ll have at least a couple GPP lineups Arizona stacks featuring an array of hitters form the 1-6 spots in their order, prioritizing Ketel Marte ($3,400), David Peralta ($2,300), Daulton Varsho ($2,300), Pavin Smith ($2,100) and Carson Kelly ($2,400), with a few shares of cheap (and near-minimum price) leadoff hitter Josh Rojas ($2,100).

More (Obvious) Cash/GPP Game Stack Options: Houston Astros, Cleveland Indians & Chicago White Sox

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 9/11 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s eight-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:10PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No rain in the forecast but we do have winds blowing out in St. Louis for the Reds-Cards game — something to consider for Cincinnati GPP stacks.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Walker Buehler ($9,700)

We can chalk up his last outing (3 IP, 7 H, 1 K, 6 ER @SF) to a bad day, and his last start vs. the Padres yielded a solid outcome. The K rate is down a bit in 2021, but the walks are down, the ground ball rate has increased and the solid 2.31 ERA isn’t too far separated from the 3.18/3.59 FIP/xFIP combo. We’re looking at about a 35-40 point projections here, with a 50-point ceiling, and that’s good enough to make him the top SP for cash games and single-entry.

Best GPP Value: Charlie Morton ($9,000)

Morton looks like a solid value tonight against the Marlins, who have the second-highest team K% in MLB. The veteran’s upside probably even exceeds Buehler’s tonight given the matchup, and that upside comes with a built-in discount from the top two arms on the slate in Buehler and Luis Castillo. I’m not as interested in Castillo because of how he can get lit up, especially against a team filled with potent bats like the Cards, but he’d make for a semi-contrarian choice given that tougher matchup. Morton seems to fit the best and carry the highest chance of notching both a QS and W, so he’s my first choice for GPPs.

Contrarian GPP Play: Luis Garcia ($8,300)

Garcia isn’t a very exciting play, but if we need a leverage pivot with some upside, he’s probably it. His ownership should be lower than Morton’s, and he’s seen an uptick in velocity on his pitches lately. The problem is that he’s got a much lower floor than either Morton or Buehler, and while the price is severely discounted compared to DraftKings, he hasn’t notched double-digit Ks in any start this season despite a 10.41 K% because he rarely pitches six full innings.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Houston Astros

The implied run total is well over 5, and the Astros have been red-hot offensively over the past few games, so we should start any stack off with Alex Bregman ($3,200), and then play some combination of Jose Altuve ($3,800) and Yordan Alvarez ($3,400), Carlos Correa ($3,500), Kyle Tucker ($3,200) Yuri Gurriel ($2,900) and value options Michael Brantley ($2,600) and Martin Maldonado ($2,100). There’s really nobody that’s out of consideration given the circular nature of this powerful lineup.

GPP Stack #1: Chicago White Sox

The prices are still relatively affordable for the White Sox (even moreso on DK), with Luis Robert ($3,900), Jose Abreu ($3,800), Eloy Jimenez ($3,500) and Yasmani Grandal ($3,800) all in play for stacks against Red Sox projected starter Connor Seabold. Andrew Vaughn is just $2,300, and both Brian Goodwin ($2,200) and Yoan Moncada ($3,200) are in play as well. It’s simply a great spot for mixing and matching a few different four-man stacks of White Sox.

GPP Stack #2: Cincinnati Reds

Miles Mikolas doesn’t scare me one bit, and while the Reds are a dynamic bunch who can disappoint on occasion, I like the four-man stack of Jonathan India ($3,700), Nick Castellanos ($4,100), Joey Votto ($3,700) and Tyler Naquin ($2,700) the best among this bunch, with Eugenio Suarez ($3,200), Max Schrock ($2,100) and Tucker Barnhart ($2,400) the best of the rest.

Bonus Value Stacks: Seattle Mariners, Minnesota Twins

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday – 07/04

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 8 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

Happy July 4 everyone. Hope you will all get to celebrate with good food and a drink in hand. Today’s slate, while a little smaller than normal for a Sunday, provides us with solid options on the hill and also some solid options at the plate. It’s shaping up for a fun slate.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Freddy Peralta ($9.9k) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – I should preface this pick with saying that the Pirates are not a high strike out time. That somewhat puts a cap on Peralta’s ceiling today. Peralta however is an elite strikeout arm. Strike out pitchers find strike outs. There’s a reason they are strike out pitchers.

If Houser was able to K 5 against this team on Friday night, I see no reason why Peralta can’t get that number up to 7 or 8. My concern always with Peralta is his efficiency. He throws a lot of pitches in a short period of time and rarely goes beyond 6 innings. That said, he has a great match-up today against a weak hitting Pirates lineup. With Peralta’s elite level 37% K rate, I see some upside in him today.

Charlie Morton ($9k) vs. Miami Marlins – Over the past week the Marlins have the third highest K rate of any team in baseball and the third lowest hard hit rate. I’m going to attack them, especially when a solid pitcher is on the mound. Today we have a solid pitcher throwing against them in Morton.

Over the past month Morton has been pitching extremely well. He has a 27% K rate to go with a 3.7 XFIP. He’s giving up a ton of grounders also which really helps to limit damage as he’s only given up one long ball in his last 29 innings of work. With the Marlins struggling and Morton pitching well, he’s my clear number 2 today.

Lucas Giolito ($9.6k) vs. Detroit Tigers – This is the cheapest we are getting Giolito in more than a month. He gets a great match-up today against a team that has a 26% K rate this year vs. righties. While the Tigers will show some signs of life every now and then, if we look at their body of work as a whole this season they are still a very weak offense. Especially against righties.

They have one of the lowest wRC+’s of any team today against the handedness at which they are facing. It sits at just 91. With Giolito we’re still getting a pitcher who has a 27% K rate over the past 30 days and an xFIP under 4.

The one area of concern with Gio is that he is giving up homers at a pretty quick pace. He’s given up 8 in his last 31 innings. While it is a high number, he doesn’t put many runners on with a WHIP of just 1.03 over that same time frame. So we know if he gives up a homer or two they will more than likely be solo shots.

I also really like Robbie Ray ($10.8K). He’s just really expensive and when we look at price point and match-up, I like the other 3 better. He still warrants consideration as he has a ton of upside every outing with his extremely high K rate.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tyler Anderson – While I prefer the Brewers vs. against righties, they do have a handful of guys that hit for power vs. lefties.

I like attacking pitchers that have low K upside and have a high HR/FB ratio. We have that today in Anderson. His HR/FB ratio is 18.5% which is the second highest on the slate. His K rate at 12.7% over the past 30 days is the second lowest on the slate.

With how hot the Brewers have been recently, you just have to love the match-up here. The two guys that standout the most to me today with the Brewers are Garcia ($3k) and Taylor ($2.3k). Both have ISO’s greater than .260 against lefties this year and wOBA’s over .370. I’m building around them. All Brewers are in play though as they are just scorching hot right now.

Chicago White Sox vs. Matt Manning – White Sox are a little banged up right now but they have a great match-up today. Manning hast just not been good since getting called up to the bigs. So far this year he’s giving up a 56% hard hit rate with just a 6.7% K rate. So he’s giving up a ton of hard contact and not getting any K’s.

If we look at splits, the hard hit rate is pretty much equal to both sides of the plate. Where we see the difference is the fly ball rate as it jumps to 44% vs. lefties. Because of that, I want to prioritize the lefties. If Goodwin ($3.1k) hits in the cleanup spot, he’s a must play. Sheets ($3.2k) is also a must play as he gets the platoon match-up and he’s swinging a hot bat. Over the past week he has a .531 wOBA and a 1.345 OPS. All batters in this lineup should be in play today.

Minnesota Twins vs. Brad Keller – Twins lost a little bit of their lineup yesterday with Donaldson getting banged up, but I really like this spot for the Twins. While Keller is a high ground-ball pitcher, he’s also someone that when giving up a fly ball there’s a strong likelihood of the ball going over the fence due to his high hard hit rate. Keller has one of the highest HR/FB ratios of the pitchers going today.

In looking at his pitch profile he’s a sinker ball pitcher. Twins have some guys that have had great success against this pitch. Nelson Cruz ($4.2k) automatically comes to mind. Over the past several seasons he has a .255 ISO to this pitch with a low whiff rate. He’s also been heating up as he has a .505 wOBA over the past week with a 1.218 OPS. He’s my building block with a Twins stack. While he hasn’t been hot of late, Arraez ($3k) will be hitting lead-off and also has some success against this pitch.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Sunday always presents us with the added risk of veterans sitting due to it being getaway day. Make sure to keep an extra eye on lineups. Unlike the last few days we are blessed with clear skies everywhere today.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Tuesday, 6/01

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a massive 14 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

This slate brings us a healthy amount of options on both the pitching front and stacking front. We also have my favorite GPP pitcher in Robbie Ray in a bounce back position. Coors Field is back so we’ll also need to determine if we go all in or fade.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Tyler Glasnow ($10.7k) vs. New York Yankees – After a down performance vs. the Toronto Blue Jays Glasnow rebounded with arguably his most dominant performance of the year, 11 K’s and only 3 hits vs. the Royals.

Today he gets to take on a very up and down offense in the Yankees. For the season, the Yankees are striking out more than 25% of the time to righties. They’ve also shown limited power to righties with a sub .700 OPS and just a .141 ISO. The Yankees can be had. They can strikeout in bunches.

Glasnow has elite K ability with a strikeout rate of 36% on the year. While the Yankees can be an intimidating offense at times, they’re not clicking on all cylinders right now. Glasnow is the top arm on the slate and the Yankees propose a nice match-up for him.

Chris Bassitt ($9.3k) vs. Seattle Mariners – If you don’t want to spend all the way up for Glasnow, the next guy to be considered is Bassitt. Bassitt is not yet a household name due to pitching in Oakland, but he’s been one of the top pitchers in the league this year. He has a 26% K rate, a 3.58 xFIP, and a WHIP of only 1.

He’s also done an outstanding job of limiting hard contact. His hard hit rate this year is only 25%. Today he gets to face off against one of the worst offenses in the league, the Seattle Mariners.

Mariners on the year are striking out at a 25% clip to righties and have shown almost no power. Their .643 OPS is the second worst to the handedness of all the teams going today.

This is a great match-up for Bassitt. Salary wise, he’s my top arm today.

Robbie Ray ($9.1k) vs. Miami Marlins – When it comes to pitchers that are considered GPP only pitchers, Ray is at the top of the list.

Ray had his first rough outing of the year his last time out. Giving up 4 ER through 4, but he also managed 5 K’s which helped him still get to the 17 FD points. He proved last time out that even when he’s at his worst, he’s still going to get you some points and all is not lost.

Tonight presents Ray with a great bounce back opportunity. Marlins for the year have been striking out almost 28% of the time to lefties. Ray is never safe, but I like his chances at being one of the top scorers amongst the pitchers going tonight.

MLB DFS: The Bats

There’s a game in Coors tonight. You don’t need me to tell you that anytime there’s a game in Coors, both teams should be in your consideration. My goal here is to provide you other options if you decide to fade Coors.

Both pitchers in this game have been respectable this year and are high ground ball pitchers. With there being other solid spots for offense, fading the game is very reasonable today.

Oakland Athletics vs. Marco Gonzales – The A’s get to take on Gonzales today and I really like this spot for them. Gonzales on the season has been giving up a ton of hard contact while also giving up more fly balls than he normally does. His GB rate is at the lowest point of his career. He’s also giving up one of the highest barrel rates of any pitcher on the slate.

This all sets up well for a team that has been really solid against lefties this season. They have a .181 ISO and 114 wRC+. A’s shouldn’t be highly owned and have the chance to put a big number. My favorite here is Mark Canha ($3.7k) who has a great history against the sinker. He should be the priority in any A’s stack.

Minnesota Twins vs. Bruce Zimmermann – One of these days I’m going to get the Twins right. Tonight I feel is that night. Twins are a high strikeout team. Zimmermann will get some K’s tonight. He’s also someone that will give up some home runs. He’s given up 10 already and I’m going to chase that.

The Twins have a lot of power from the right side. Kyle Garlick ($2.3k), Josh Donaldson ($2.8k), Nelson Cruz ($3.5k), and Mitch Garver ($3.1k) all have strong power numbers against lefties.

Twins disappointed big time yesterday; today should be a different story. Playing all 4 of these guys plus Glasnow still gives you $3,150 per player for the rest of your lineup.

San Francisco Giants vs. Andrew Heaney – Don’t look now, but the Giants offense is one of the hottest in the game. They’ve scored 8, 11, 5, and 6 runs in their last 4 games.

Tonight they get a good match-up against Heaney. While Heaney has gotten a little unlucky this year with his xFIP a run and half lower than his ERA, he’s still giving up a ton of hard contact at nearly 36%.

Giants are a low strikeout team that has done really well against lefties this year. They have a .778 OPS, a .190 ISO, and a wRC+ of 115. The guys I’m going to target here are Austin Slater ($2.4k), Buster Posey ($3.4k), Mike Yastrzemski ($3k), and Mauricio Dubon ($2.1k).

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Robbie Ray is on the slate so I’m automatically excited for tonight! Pitching I believe is pretty clear tonight with the 3 pitches I mentioned. With so many good hitting spots I do think ownership should be more spread out.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Thursday – 05/06

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a smaller sized 8 game main slate on Fanduel that has a start time of 1:05. So for us East Coast folks, we’ll know if we cashed by dinner time!

Our slate provides us today 1 clear ace, 1 near ace, and the Tigers.

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Gerritt Cole ($12.3k) vs. Houston Astros – Cole is the clear ace of the staff today. For the season, he’s k’ing batters at a 44% rate, has a 16.4% swinging strike rate, and 1.78 xFIP. The Astros are a stingy team against righties. K’ing less than 20% of the time. But Cole is a stud and will find his strikeouts regardless of who he is facing. There’s also a bit of a narrative today as he’s facing his old squad for the first time.

Zach Wheeler ($9.1k) vs. Milwaukee Brewers – Just when you thought the Brewers were getting some help with Yelich back, they got it taken away after just one game. Wheeler’s start to the season has seen some very volatile performance. He’s had a couple of stellar outings, but he’s also had some very mediocre to poor outings.

Facing off against the Brewers today though, he has a chance to get back on track with a solid outing. Brewers on the season are struggling against righties. They have a K rate of near 27% and below average ISO, OPS, and wOBA’s. Wheeler is throwing his slider more this season than at any other point in his career. Looking at the Brewers lineup, they all average a whiff rate greater than 30% to this pitch. If he relies on this pitch more today, this has the makings of a ceiling game.

Nathan Eovaldi ($8.6k) vs. Detroit Tigers – If there is a half decent pitcher throwing against the Tigers this season you can rest assured they will be in my player pool. In Eovaldi we’re getting someone that’s more than a half decent pitcher. In just 6 starts this year he’s already reached the 40 FD point mark 3 times. I see no reason why today he shouldn’t get there for a 4^th time.

Tigers are K’ing at a 29% clip this season to righties. That’s high! While no one would ever call Eovaldi a strikeout pitcher, he’s someone that can rack up strikeouts. For the season, he has a respectable 22% k rate and a 13.3% swinging strike rate. While my ace today is Cole, the matchup that Eovaldi has can’t be overlooked. We’ve attacked the Tigers with Kluber and Pivetta recently with success. Let’s attack them again today with Nate the great.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Minnesota Twins vs. Jordan Lyles – The Twins let us all down last night. Outside of a Garver HR they didn’t do much. Look for a rebound today. They get to face off against Lyles who for the season is sporting a 5.29 xFIP. He is a fly ball pitcher facing off against a fly ball hitting team. He’s already given up 8 homers in just 6 starts. He hasn’t not allowed a homer in any start this year.

The odds of at least one member of this Twins lineup hitting a bomb is pretty good. There are other metrics surrounding Lyles that indicates we should see a nice bounce back from the Twins. He’s allowing more than a 40% hard hit rate and 11 barrels through only 28 IP. Hitters are just teeing off on him.

Washington Nationals vs. Drew Smyly – The Nationals somewhat let me down last night. Turner did homer, Castro got on base a couple of times, and Gomes homered as well. Outside of that though, they didn’t do much. I’m going right back to the well tonight.

Smyly has not been good this year. Like Lyles he’s giving up a ton of long balls. 9 to be exact. He has a high fly ball rate of 54% and a hard hit rate of 39%. Those 2 combined are just a recipe for disaster. He’s given up 10 barrels in less than 20 IP. So he’s giving up a barrel just about every other inning. That’s not what you want to see out of a pitcher.

I’m going back to the well because the Nationals have been, for the most part, pretty damn good against lefties this season. They have an .826 OPS and a .362 wOBA. Trea Turner ($3.8k), Josh Harrison ($3.1k), Ryan Zimmerman ($2.8k), and Starlin Castro ($2.3k) are all still very affordable and are set up for success today. If Yan Gomes ($2.5k) gets the start again today, I like him too.

Atlanta Braves vs. Jon Lester – I need to preface this with saying that the Braves have not been good vs. lefties this year. They’ve actually been pretty bad. They’re striking out a lot and not hitting for much power. That said, Jon Lester is no longer a good MLB pitcher. He had his first start of the season last week and while the ERA looks amazing, the underlying stats show a different story. He allowed 7 baserunners in only 5 IP. His hard minus soft hit rate was more than 20%. Giving up that much hard contact is going to catch up to you at some point.

Is today the day? Guys like Ronald Acuna ($4.3k), Marcell Ozuna ($2.9k), and Ozzie Albies ($3.2k) have long track records of success against lefties. They’ll come out of their funk at some point. Hopefully it’s today against Mr. Lester. Ozuna remains underpriced for his upside.

One other spot I do like today is the Kansas City Royals vs. McKenzie. McKenzie has 4 outings where he has given up 4 walks. He’s got really good stuff, but he just can’t control it yet. I don’t normally chase SB’s, but Whit Merrifield ($3.7k) at the top of that lineup is set up for a game where he can have multiple steals.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

There should be plenty of offense to go around today. Weather, unlike the last couple of days, shouldn’t impact games much today. There may be some wind in spots, but the sun will finally be shining for all games.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green today!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 4/17 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

We’ve got some live arms and potent bats in this edition of Aces and Bases focusing ONLY on FanDuel’s five-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET.

There are no bad weather issues but a possible COVID outbreak on the Houston Astros means we have to stay vigilant on news and have pivots at the ready!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top Ace: Yu Darvish ($9,900)

Kershaw is the highest-priced arm and the likely chalk, but I’d venture to say that Darvish has more contrarian upside in a home matchup against a team that’s not known for swing-and-misses, but doesn’t have a lot of experience facing Darvish. The Japanese marvel is notoriously tricky to solve and seemed at ease in his last two starts — and while Kershaw might be the preferred option in cash games, I’ll take the cheaper San Diego RHP in GPPs for some leverage on the field, since only a small percentage of DFS gamers will use pitchers against the “Boys in Blue.”

Best Value: Dane Dunning ($8,000)

I’m a little concerned about getting six innings from Dunning, and that seems to be where he’d max out at his current pitch count progression, but he’ striking out more than a batter per inning in three major league starts and the command for this 26-year-old RHP. He throws a nasty sinker that complements his four-seamer and mixes in a decent slider and occasional use of a change and curveball. The Orioles strike out at the second-highest clip in the majors this season and Dunning could offer the cheapest path to 8+ Ks and a quality start.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners (RHP Chris Flexen)

The Astros have the fourth-highest team xOBA in baseball (.342) and shouldn’t have much trouble against the eminently hittable Chris Flexen. I’m most interested in some combination of the 2-6 hitters here, which could include Aledmys Diaz ($2,600), Michael Brantley ($3,600), Yuri Gurriel ($2,800), Kyle Tucker ($3,500) and Carlos Correa ($3,000). The prices are discounted a bit on these guys without Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman — who all hit the injured listed for undisclosed reasons, prompting rumors of a possible COVID outbreak. Stay tuned since there could be some news of a postponement or more players hitting that list.

Value/Contrarian Stack: Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels (Jose Quintana)

So far this season, Jose Quintana has had a very difficult time retiring the 27 RH batters he’s faced, and he’s clearly on the downside of his career when those splits tend to become a little more exaggerated. The Twins are loaded with relatively inexpensive powerful righty hitters like Nelson Cruz ($3,800), Josh Donaldson ($3,000), Mitch Garver ($2,400) and Miguel Sano ($2,800). I was on them last night and they didn’t deliver against Andrew Heaney — a solid pitcher in his own right — but I’m going right back to the well. Cruz alone sports an obscene .570 wOBA and .440 ISO vs. LHP over his last 63 games, and Donaldson, Garver and Kyle Garlick ($2,200) all mash against LHP.

EDIT: The Twins-Angels game has been postponed, so remove any players associated with that game ASAP.

Value Stack: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Trevor Cahill)

It’s not one of those slates where you need to deploy a very inexpensive secondary value stack, but the Brewers strike me as a classic boom-or-bust GPP stack you might want to mix into a few large, low-cost tournaments for their upside and potent lefty bats, including Travis Shaw ($2,900), Omar Narvaez ($2,700) and Christian Yelich ($4,100), who’s missed four straight with a back injury but is still considered DTD. If he can’t go, Billy McKinney ($2,000) could get the start, as both he and Jackie Bradley ($2,400) have been used to spell Yelich. Also keep an eye on Daniel Vogelbach at just $2,100. If you’re looking to run a Pirtes hitter back against the group, I’d prefer 3B Phillip Evans, who’s been raking against LHP this season and hits out of the 4 slot.

Good luck!

4 years ago 0 comments

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10/4 DFS MLB Picks: Four on the Floor

6 years ago

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Today’s four-game playoff slate means the 10/4 DFS MLB Hitting Picks can go back to basics with a full lineup.

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10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — Catcher

Robinson Chirinos, HOU vs. TB

DK ($3,600), FD ($2,800)

Chirinos is devastating at Minute Maid Park, evidenced by a .915 OPS with 10 of his 14 homers coming in front of the H-Town faithful. He does have a homer among his four hits in 15 at-bats this season against the Rays. You do have to like his 39.5% hard contact rate and a similar 39.5% fly ball rate. He’s the best overall play among 10/4 DFS Hitting Picks behind the plate.

10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — First Baseman

C.J. Cron, MIN at NYY

DK ($3,600), FD ($3,100)

A value pick with good reason: Cron has six hits in 18 career at-bats against New York starter James Paxton. Two of those hits were homers, giving Cron a 1.017 OPS against the Pinstripes southpaw. Cron was able to cut his strikeout rate to 21.4% this season and maintained a solid fly ball rate (36.3%) while taking his hard contact rate from 39.6% last season to 41.1% this year.

10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — Second Baseman

Kolten Wong, STL at ATL

DK ($3,800), FD ($2,600)

Like Cron, I’m looking for past success against today’s starters. Enter Wong, who has a homer and a stolen base in 11 career at-bats versus Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz, producing a 1.625 OPS in the process. Wong went 2-for-4 with two RBI and a walk in Thursday’s Game 1 victory. That’s a tremendous way to shake off a sluggish September that saw Wong offer up a .735 OPS despite hitting .290. The free pass is encouraging since Wong had a mere .315 OBP in September that put a scratch on a Post All-Star break OBP of .409.

10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — Third Baseman

Miguel Sano, MIN at NYY

DK ($4,900), FD ($3,800)

Sano gives the Twins another hammer that has nailed James Paxton in the past. In 11 career at-bats versus Paxton, Sano has four hits that include a homer that helped boost his OPS to 1.326 against Paxton. A strong second half OBP of .362 was helped in part of Sano improving his walk rate to 12.5%. His HR/FB rate of 36.6% is downright frightening in homer-friendly Yankee Stadium. More frightening is Sano’s 52.7% hard contact rate.

10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — Shortstop

Trea Turner, WAS at LAD

DK ($4,600), FD ($4,200)

Turner admitted to “trying too hard” on Thursday night, so let’s take him at his word. He’ll need a different approach against Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw, even though he has three hits in 10 at-bats against him. One way Turner could achieve that would be resuming his more aggressive ways on the road when it comes to baserunning. Of his 35 steals, 20 have come in enemy territory. He has a .444 slugging percentage against southpaws, compared to .512 versus righties, so look for him to more contact-oriented.

10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Yordan Alvarez, HOU vs. TB

DK ($4,800), FD ($4,000)

The Rays were not exempt from Alvarez’s tour of destruction, as Tampa Bay hurlers allowed a pair of homers and a double to him in 11 at-bats. Alvarez’s best work came at Minute Maid Park, where he sported an 1.140 OPS built on a slash line of .349/.441/.699. Rays starter Tyler Glasnow allowed just one homer in 97 at-bats versus left-handed hitters. Facing a slugger with a 51.1% hard contact rate, Glasnow could see that number increase by at least one.

10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Marcell Ozuna, STL at ATL

DK ($4,100), FD ($3,600)

Ozuna has a pair of homers off Braves hurler Mike Foltynewicz, who was shelled by the Cardinals this season for nine runs (eight earned) and 12 hits over 10.2 innings for a robust 6.79 ERA. Ozuna doubled twice, drove in a pair of runs and scored once on Thursday, making us all forget his .143 average against Atlanta pitching this season. Ozuna’s .243 batting average and .259 BABIP also make you forget his career-best 48.1% hard contact rate and the fact his 2018 BABIP was exactly 50 points higher.

10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Aaron Judge, NYY vs. MIN

DK ($4,700), FD ($4,400)

Although he failed to record a homer against them this season, Judge did hit .462 (6-for-13) against Twins pitching, making him a good 10/4 DFS Hitting Picks play. He also comes into the postseason with the momentum of an 1.109 OPS with four homers over the past two weeks and an equally imposing .948 OPS under the lights. Judge also has three hits in five career at-bats versus Twins starter Jose Berrios, while his late season surge boosted his Isolated Power to .267. Ignore the 31.5% strikeout rate, and Judge offers you a hitter with a .360 BABIP and an intimidating 53.8% hard contact rate.

10/4 DFS Hitting Stacks

10/4 Hitting Stack of the Day: St. Louis Cardinals: Wong and Ozuna should be paired with Paul DeJong ($3100 FD), who has a homer and a 1.064 OPS versus Foltynewicz, along with Matt Carpenter ($4100 DK), who also sports a career dinger off the Braves’ Game 2 starter.

10/4 DFS Showdown

Using the FanDuel template, it’s 2x the points for MVP, 1.5x the points for All-Star and regular production for the three Utility spots. October is filled with unsung efforts, something to keep in mind when filling out the Utility roles. Look for players who’ve had success this season against a particular team, along with taking a gander of recent production. I’m a strong believer in OPS, more so if a strong OPS is bolstered with stolen bases.

My MVP plays for Showdown:

Tampa Bay at Houston: Yordan Alvarez, HOU, OF, $8,000 Salary

St. Louis at Atlanta: Paul Goldschmidt, STL, 1B, $8,500 Salary

Minnesota at NY Yankees: Gleyber Torres, NYY, 2B, $6,500 Salary

Washington at LA Dodgers: Cody Bellinger, LAD, OF, $9,500 Salary

10/4 DFS Pitching Picks

Justin Verlander, HOU vs. TB

DK ($10,700), FD ($11,200)

No shock here, as he is projected to deliver 45.03 points at FanDuel and 26.03 points at DraftKings. Verlander has produced 15 straight starts of at least 30 points at FD, hitting above 50 points nine times in the same span. The 12.11 K/9 rate assures DFSers of plenty of whiffs, and while the 1.45 HR/9 rate raises the eyebrows a wee, Verlander has been able to keep most them solo blasts.

Jack Flaherty, STL at ATL

DK ($8,200), FD ($10,500)

You could save some salary and run with Flaherty over Verlander. In his one start versus the Braves this season, Flaherty allowed one hit and struck out 11 over seven innings. His 0.91 ERA and .142 OBA after the All-Star break was overshadowed by a host of hitting performances and the “can you top this?” clash between Verlander and Astros teammate Gerrit Cole, but Flaherty’s 124 strikeouts over 99.1 post-ASB frames were anything but a fluke.

Clayton Kershaw, LAD vs. WAS

DK ($9,300), FD ($10,300)

Only Kershaw can post a 2.95 ERA and fan nearly 10 batters per nine innings post-ASB and still have people wondering about his effectiveness. The home run rate (1.41) was a career-high, and the 2.07 BB/9 was his highest since 2012. Name recognition will make his usage rate climb, yet Kershaw presents something of a bargain compared to the two hurlers above him.

Stephen Strasburg, WAS at LAD

DK ($9,600), FD ($10,100)

He’s good to go after throwing 34 pitches in relief on Tuesday, allowing just two hits and fanning four. Strasburg could be overlooked by some, yet he did strike out 16 and allowed only three earned runs in 16 innings against the Dodgers this season, sporting a 2.08 ERA.

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