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Michael Brantley

10/25 DFS MLB: World Series Showdown and Prop Picks

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’re back in Washington for Game 3 of the World Series, and our 10/25 DFS picks for MLB highlight some money-making gems that might slip under the radar.

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10/25 DFS MLB: DK Showdown (8:07p.m. EST)

The game: World Series Game 3 – Houston Astros at WashingtonNationals, 8:07 p.m. EST

Projected implied totals have the Nats scoring about 3.5-4.0runs, and the Astros scoring about 4.0-4.5.

10/25 DFS SP Strategy and Game Notes

Zack Greinke ($15,900/$10,600)

Greinke has been the Astros’ third starter all postseason – and remains in that role for the World Series. He’s struggled at times this postseason but managed to pave the way for an Astros victory in his last start on Thursday October 17 in Game 4 of the ALCS. I think the Astros like their chances tonight with him on the mound.

Home runs have been a particular problem for Greinke – he’s allowed five this postseason. And he’s pitched to a 6.43 ERA and 6.40 FIP while averaging just 4.67 innings per start.

Nats hitters have plenty of experience against Greinke buthave hit only 3 HRs in 217 ABs – Kurt Suzuki, Anthony Rendon and Matt Adamseach have one.

Park factor is better for lefties in Nationals park, so wemay want to increase shares of the lefty bats in both lineups – even thoughGreinke’s splits show that lefties are not a problem for him.

One thing we can keep in mind is that Nationals hitters don’t match up very well to the Astros pitchers’ breaking stuff, while Astros hitters haven’t shown a problem hitting it, with elite metrics from their best hitters – Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez among them – at connecting with both Uncle Charlie and the slider.

Anibal Sánchez ($13,800/$9,200)

Sanchez has been nearly unhittable this postseason, sporting a 0.71 ERA and 2.50 FIP. He whiffed nine Dodgers bats on October 6 and despite yielding 12 fly balls against the Cards’ hitters in Game 1 of the NLCS, he gave up just one hit (and one walk) en route to twirling a 7.2 IP, 103-pitch gem that saw him strike out five batters.

We can’t expect that kind of performance against theAstros, who make better contact than the Dodgers, especially against breakingballs. When Sanchez entered the league in 206 with the Marlins, he was throwinghis fastball 60.8% of the time. In 2019, for the Nats, that number was down tojust 35.4% — as he’s added a cutter that makes up about 27.5% of his total pitches.

Sánchez throws a mix of pitches to keep hitters off balance,including a 90-mph four-seam fastball, a slow change, and a cutter. He alsomixes in a splitter – a pitch that claimed two strikeouts against RussellMartin in the NLCS.

If he’s going to get strikeouts against the Astros, it willbe via the changeup, which he throws more often against lefties but willuti8lize as an inside offering to RHBs. The main concerns for Sánchez and theNationals in Game 3 are how deep he can go in the game and preventing a biginning.

Here’s what I’ll be doing:

Greinke is more of a GPP play with Sanchez more likely tomake value in cash, though I don’t think either is a lock for inclusion here –as there are ways for this game to play out that neutralize pitchingeffectiveness.

Neither is essential for the Captain spot and having one ofthem in that slot doesn’t necessarily make for the best approach in large-fieldGPPs – though we’ll explore it in our sample builds.

10/25 DFS Hitters

I’m partial to Bregman, Altuve and Alvarez on Houston for their ability to hit off-speed stuff, with Gurriel and Brantley possible game-changers with their value. I’ll have more shares of the Astros in GPPs than Nats hitters As for the Nats, Soto, Rendon and Kendrick make sense for their performance against sliders, change-ups and curves – which make up Greinke’s non-fastball repertoire.

NOTE: Kendrick is not in the Game 3 starting lineup

10/25 DFS Washington Nationals bats

AnthonyRendon (DK $15,300/$10,200)

Rendon is the most expensive hitter in the Showdown despitehitting just one home run this postseason, so he’s not necessarily a great pickfor the Captain spot. I’ll be mixing him into some GPPs, but the Nats hittersaren’t as much of a priority despite the 2-0 lead and home game.

JuanSoto (DK $15,000/$10,000)

Soto is 6-for-his-last-11 with a HR, three doubles and four RBIs and runs scored. He’s a 20-yar-old revelation who’s thriving in his first postseason to a .289/.385/.556 slash, .381 wOBa and 133 wRC+. You’ll want some shares, though the price has come up.

HowieKendrick (DK $13,800/$9,200)

If the Astros pitchers are too careful with Soto, they’ll have to get by Kendrick, who’s come up big in the postseason on more than one occasion. He hits RHPs well (.930 OPS and .221 ISO in 2019) and remains a core build for Game 3. NOTE: Kendrick is not starting Game 3. Pivot your Kendrick shares to Trea Turner in Nats stacks and prioritize Rendon and Robles if you need to rebuild.

SpotlightValue: Victor Robles (DK $10,200/$6,800) and Adam Eaton (DK $11,400/$7,600)

We hit Suzuki last time,and he was the Captain on the winning DK lineups. This time we’re puttingRobles in the spotlight, as he’s got the requisite speed and power to impact thisgame, as his price is low enough that putting him in the captain spot couldallow for Sanchez and more power bats in Nats-heavy builds. Eaton is also cheapand is heating up at the plate, which is a good sign for a guy who hits earlyin the Nats lineup.

Other10/25 DFS options: Trea Turner (DK $14,100/$9,400), Ryan Zimmerman (DK $10,500/$7,000),Kurt Suzuki (DK $9,900/$6,600)

10/25 DFS Houston Astros bats

AlexBregman (DK $13,500/$9,000)

We said he was due – andwhile his glove let him down on one key play, there’s nothing wrong with hisbat, as suspected. Bregman is patient (35.1% swing rate) and powerful (.296 ISOin 2019) – the best hitter on the team. And while he’s only a little betterthan league average against cutters, he destroys fastballs and curveballs. He won’tbe overmatched, his price on DK has dropped, and will be eager to avenge someof the mistakes he made in Game 2.

JoseAltuve (DK $14,700/$9,800)

Altuve is impossible toavoid when building Astros lineups, and his career postseason numbers (.293/.356/.549slash, 13 HRs and 141 WRC+ in 202 ABs). there’s no need for major analysis here,because we know what he’s capable of and that we need to mix him to get someexposure.

Yordan Alvarez (DK $12,900/$8,600)

The price has come up a bit, but Alvarez now hashits in two straight games and just two Ks over that span. He’s got greatagainst cutters, so I won’t have 100 per4cent exposure but I’d be remiss if I didn’tinclude him as a high-upside option in this Showdown.

SpotlightValue: Yuri Gurriel ($11,700/$7,800)

Gurriel hits righties better than lefties and smashes cutters and curveballs – which is how Sanchez is going to tackle this Astros lineup. He offers oodles of upside at a cheap price and benefits from relatively low ownership. Just as Game 3 of the ALCS was his breakout game, this matchup puts him in another excellent spot for a homer and multiple hits.

NOTE: Alvarez may not be in the starting lineup with no DH. Use Gurriel if he’s starting at 1B.

Other 10/25 DFS options: Michael Brantley (DK $10,800/$7,200), Carlos Correa (DK $12,300/$8,200), George Springer (DK $14,400/$9,600), Josh Reddick (DK $7,200/$4,800), Robinson Chirinos (DK $8,100/$5,400)

SampleDK GPP lineup #1 (w/Greinke)

CPT – Y. Gurriel ($11,700)

UTIL – V. Robles ($7,400)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,200)

UTIL – J. Reddick ($4,800)

UTIL – Z. Greinke ($10,600)

UTIL – A. Eaton ($7,600)

SampleDK GPP lineup #2 (Balanced w/no pitchers)

CPT – V. Robles ($11,100)

UTIL – A. Bregman ($9,000)

UTIL – J. Soto ($10,000)

UTIL – R. Chirinos ($5,400)

UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,800)

UTIL – K. Suzuki ($6,600)

SampleDK GPP lineup #3 (w/ Greinke and Houston closer)

CPT – A. Bregman ($13,500)

UTIL – Z. Greinke ($10,600)

UTIL – V. Robles ($7,400)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,200)

UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,800)

UTIL – R. Osuna ($3,000)

SampleDK GPP Lineup #4 (Nats w/Sanchez and Doolittle)

CPT – J. Soto ($15,000)

UTIL – A. Sanchez ($9,200)

UTIL – A. Eaton ($7,600)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,200)

UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,800)

UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,000)

10/25 DFS Hitters for FDSingle-game

You know the routine –no pitchers to consider so we can have some fun with the hitters!

SampleFD GPP lineup #1 (Astros-dominant)

MVP (2x) – Gurriel($7,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Bregman($8,500)

UTIL – Eaton ($7,000)

UTIL – Robles ($5,500)

UTIL – Brantley ($6,500)

SampleFD GPP lineup #2 (Nats-dominant)

MVP (2x) – Soto ($8,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Altuve($9,000)

UTIL – Gurriel ($7,000)

UTIL – Suzuki ($5,000)

UTIL – V. Robles ($5,500)

SampleFD lineup (Balanced)

MVP (2x) – Bregman($9,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Soto($8,000)

UTIL – Robles ($5,500)

UTIL – Gurriel ($7,000)

UTIL – Kendrick ($6,000)

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Pick the Players that will get the most Home Runs — Goal: 1.50, Prize: 4x

Home Run Derby: Gurriel, Soto and Bregman

Goal 1.50 – 4x: I feel like these three offer the most upside for home runs based on the matchup. If you want to get crazy and bet on three HRs total, that’ll yield you 6x your bet.

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5 years ago 0 comment

10/23 DFS MLB: World Series Showdown and Prop Picks

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The World Series continuestonight in Houston after a big win from the Nats – so check out our 10/23 DFSpicks for MLB at Win Daily Sports.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

10/23 DFS MLB: DK Showdown (8:07p.m. EST)

The game: World Series Game 2 – Washington Nationals atHouston Astros, 8:07 p.m. EST

10/23 DFS SP Strategy and Picks

Last night’s top Showdown entries had Max Scherzer, but noGerrit Cole, as the Houston ace struggled to put way batters, gave up five ERand notched just six Ks. It also had Sean Doolittle, so my lineups with Coleand Osuna yesterday were on the right track – I just had the wrong winning team.

Stephen Strasburg’s postseason numbers are almost asridiculous as Cole’s were heading into last night’s matchup, so I’ll considerhim the analog to Cole’s 1A yesterday. The Nationals hurler has less than one-quarterof the postseason experience that Justin Verlander does, and his metrics in thatmuch smaller sample are superior:

Strasburg: 1.10 ERA, 2.07 SIERA, 12.51 K/9,1.10 BB/9, 0.90 WHIP, 35.6 K% (41.0 IP)
Verlander: 3.26 ERS, 3.09 SIERA, 9.98 K/9, 2.75BB/9, 1.03 WHIP, 27.8 K% (176.2 IP)

We’ll have shares of both in our lineup builds, though I’llbe taking more Strasburg in cash games given Verlander’s propensity to serve upthe long ball:

Verlander has a career postseason 1.17 HR/9 and0.93 for his entire career
Strasburg has a career postseason 0.44 HR/9 and0.89 for his entire career

I still think playingboth in cash games is viable, and I’ll shift more GPP ownership to Verlander.

Morenotes:

Verlander has faced these Nats hitters 274times and yielded just 4 homers to them, posting a .248/.306/.365 slash, withAsdrubal Cabrera having the most experience and success (21-for-76 with 3 HR).
The Astros are again about one-run favoriteswith an implied total of about 4.0 to the Nats’ 3.0. Last night’s game finishedtwo runs over the projected total (one for each team, but reversed), so it’snot worth throwing these numbers out just yet.
Once again, stay tuned to the starting lineups– we could get some value from unlikely sources.

10/23 DFS Hitters

We’ll stick to the overall theme of the playoffs here, as that seemed to play out last night save for the solo shot by Ryan Zimmerman and the better plate approach from Yordan Alvarez, which we can get behind a bit more here. My player writeups for yesterday were a bit long because it was Game 1, so I’ll stick to one key thought for each player here and you can refer back to my previous writeup if you need more info.

10/23 DFS Washington Nationalsbats

AnthonyRendon (DK $14,400/$9,600)

Rendon has not faced Verlander before and is still a dangerous batin the heart of a solid lineup. We have to consider him, especially since he’sbeen quiet and has no trouble hitting RHPs. His price jumped $200 too (because theSPs don’t cost as much), so he’s definitely in play for GPPs.

TreaTurner (DK $13,500/$9000)

My writeup on Turner wasspot-on yesterday and it applies again today. If he’s on base, he’s in business.And he does have power (.200 ISO in 2019). I’ll have shares, though maybe notas much as last night.

JuanSoto (DK $13,200/$8,800)

Again – the analysis wassolid, but I didn’t trust him enough to warrant the top captain spot in my GPPbuilds. He’s a hitter who thrives on confidence, but his ownership will bethrough the roof for Game 2. You’ll need some shares, just don’t go overboard.

SpotlightValue: Kurt Suzuki (DK $9,300/$6,200)

Last night’s valuespotlight didn’t play, but his replacement did, and he hit a homer. Tonight, werun the same risk if they decide to roll out Yan Gomes instead of Suzuki – who’s14-for-42 career off Verlander with just 4 Ks – a stat which stuck out as muchas any considering Verlander’s 24.7% career K rate.

Other options: Howie Kendrick (DK $12,900/$8,600), Adam Eaton (DK $10,500/$7,000), Victor Robles (DK $10,200/$6,800)

10/23 DFS Houston Astros bats

JoseAltuve (DK $14,700/$9,800)

Altuve ended up 1-for-5last night and still reached double digit points on DK, so a multi-hit gamemakes him worthy of usage in our builds, and consideration as the main hitterfor our Astros-heavy lineups. He’s 2-for-5 off Strasburg in his career, whichain’t much – but it’s a start.

AlexBregman (DK $14,100/$9,400)

The guy is due. Bregman took a gift pitch from Sean Doolittle right over the heart of the plate yesterday because he was overthinking location and looking away – and he’ll likely not make that same mistake again. I trust his bat and his approach, so we’re going back to the well with him against Strasburg (2-for-3 career).

Yordan Alvarez (DK $12,300/$8,200)

I’m fully aboard the Alvarez redemption train, as theyoung slugger went 2-for-3 in Game 1 and could easily break through with adinger tonight. He did hit 27 in 357 ABs during the regular season, and he’s beenon a homerless slump for far too long.

CarlosCorrea (DK $12,000/$8,000)

Correa was one of the fewAstros that actually looked overmatched by Scherzer last night (1-for-5, 3 Ks),even though the Nats’ pitcher didn’t have his best stuff. It’s possibly hisback was bothering him a bit, so I’m going to reduce my shares, which weremassive for Game 1.

SpotlightValue: Robinson Chirinos (DK $7,500/$5,000)

It’s catcher day in Game 2 of the World Series. Thevalue is there, and the guy has plenty of power (18 HRs in 388 ABs in 2019).Catchers also have a knack for hitting mistake pitches very well, and Strasburgdoes make mistakes.

Other 10/23 DFS options: Yuri Gurriel (DK $11,700/$7,800), George Springer (DK $13,800/$9,200), Michael Brantley (DK $10,800/$7,200), Josh Reddick (DK $8,100/$5,400)

SampleDK Cash or GPP lineup (Strasburg up top, no Verlander – $700 left)

CPT – S. Strasburg ($15,900)

UTIL – J. Soto ($8,800)

UTIL – A. Eaton ($7,000)

UTIL – J. Reddick ($5,400)

UTIL – G. Springer ($9,200)

UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,000)

SampleDK GPP lineup (Verlander up top, no Strasburg)

CPT – J. Verlander ($17,100)

UTIL – Bregman ($9,400)

UTIL – Y. Alvarez ($8,200)

UTIL – R. Chirinos ($5,000)

UTIL – A. Eaton ($7,000)

UTIL – R. Osuna ($3,000)

SampleDK Lineup (Houston heavy with $500 left)

CPT – Y. Alvarez ($12,300)

UTIL – J. Verlander ($11,400)

UTIL – A. Cabrera ($7,400)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($5,600)

UTIL – K. Suzuki ($6,200)

UTIL – R. Chirinos (5,000)

SampleDK GPP Lineup (Houston-heavy with $2,100 left)

CPT – A. Bregman ($14,100)

UTIL – J. Verlander ($11,600)

UTIL – Y. Alvarez (8,200)

UTIL – R. Chirinos ($5,000)

UTIL – K. Suzuki ($6,200)

UTIL – R. Osuna ($3,000)

SampleDK GPP Lineup (No pitchers)

CPT – J. Soto ($13,200)

UTIL – T. Turner ($9,000)

UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,800)

UTIL – R. Zimmerman ($6,000)

UTIL – K. Suzuki ($6,200)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,200)

10/23 DFS Hitters for FDSingle-game

Here we can just load upon hitters and try to find the bombs in the MVP and All-Star spot.

SampleFD lineup #1 (Astros-dominant)

MVP (2x) – Altuve($9,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – Alvarez($6,000)

UTIL – Eaton ($7,000)

UTIL – Turner ($7,500)

UTIL – Chirinos ($4,500)

SampleFD lineup #2 (Nats-heavy)

MVP (2x) – Rendon($8,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – Soto($8,000)

UTIL – Gurriel ($6,000)

UTIL – Suzuki ($5,500)

UTIL – A. Cabrera($6,000)

Sample FD lineup #3 (Balanced)

MVP (2x) – Bregman($9,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Soto($8,000)

UTIL – Springer ($8,500)

UTIL – Chirinos ($4,500)

UTIL – Zimmerman ($5,000)

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Pick the Players for Most Fantasy Points — Goal: 19.50, Prize: 5x

Springer, Soto and Altuve

We hit on the 2x bet with the Soto HR last night and tonight were going back to the well with him and couple of hot-hitting, speedy Astros. Making 20 fantasy points among the three seems like a great wager at 5x, so lets go for it!!

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5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

10/22 DFS MLB: World Series Showdown and Prop Picks

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

The World Series gets underway tonight in Houston, and we’ve got your 10/22 DFS picks for MLB at Win Daily Sports. Lets win some green!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

10/22 DFS MLB: DK Showdown(8:08 p.m. EST)

The game: World Series Game 1 – Washington Nationals at HoustonAstros, 8:08 p.m. EST

10/22 DFS SP Strategy and Picks

Rostering Houston starter Gerrit Cole in the Captain slot is a major priority. Cole started his career in the NL with the Pirates, and these Nats hitters are collectively slashing .227/.265/.340 against him in 97 total AB.

Batters from either side of the plate were below a .250wOBA & xwOBA against Cole this season. His home wOBA, in a hitters’ parkwas just .229. He issued just 19 walks at home compared to 174 Ks for acompletely ridiculous 9.16 K/BB ratio.

Cole has a 0.40 ERA with 32 Ks in 22.2 IP this postseason.He struck out 326 batters over 212.1 IP and cruised to a 20-5 record with a0.89 WHIP and 2.48 xFIP. His lefty-righty splits (2.43 xFIP vs. LHBs and 2.52xFIP vs. RHBs) don’t show any pronounced differences.

Scherzer is fine to pair with Cole in cash games, though wemight try to mix things up a bit in GPPs – as fading Scherzer and picking the rightHouston bats could work.

Morenotes:

Offensively, both teams are capable, but Houston has the edge – since they get more offense from the entire order and have a .355 team wOBA and 125 wRC+. The Nats came in at .336 xOBA and 102 wRC+.
The game total opened at just 6.5, with some Vegas books offering 7, and The Astros range from -190 to -210 favorites – putting the implied totals at 3.5 to 4 for the Astros and about 3.0 for Washington.
This should be a game without a lot of offense, so in GPPs, we’re essentially looking for home run power from unlikely sources – with catchers and bench players possibly playing an important role.
Stay tuned to the starting lineups – we could get some value from the bottom of both orders.

10/22 DFS Hitters

It’s going to be toughto find the right bats for the 10/22 DFS Showdown, but I have all the confidencein the world we can do it. The pricingis reasonable for a couple Houston bats I’m high on, and there’s a relativelycheap Nats’ hitter that provides the kind of upside we’re looking for in the difficultmatchup against Cole.

10/22 DFS Washington Nationalsbats

AnthonyRendon (DK $14,100/$9,400)

The Nats’ third baseman is the best hitter on the team, posting a1.013 OPS in the 2019 regular season. He had at least one hit in every game of thepostseason except Game 1 of the NLDS and provides the most general upside ofany hitter in the Nats lineup. I won’t be 100%, but I’ll have plenty ofexposure in the balanced lineups I build.

TreaTurner (DK $13,200/$8,800)

If Turner can get onbase, which he’s shown a knack for doing (career-high .353 OBP in 2019), he canget something going. Solving Cole won’t be easy, but the Yankees managed to getnine baserunners (4 hits, 5 BB) versus Cole in Game 3. Turner has power, speedand the patience to get aboard (he’s also drawn three walks in this postseason)against anyone.

JuanSoto (DK $12,600/$8,400)

The junk-grabbing shuffle he’s doing against certain pitchers is pretty hilarious, and it even has its own Twitter page, but it’s testament to the confidence this young hitter flaunts at the dish. He’s hit a couple big homers this postseason and finished the 2019 regular season with a .394 wOBA – a number that jumps to .414 versus RHPs. Soto won’t be intimidated by Cole and stands as good a shot as any to take him deep, so I’ll be including him on my short list of Nats hitters that have what can be considered a “favorable” matchup – favorable being a relative term against a stud like Cole.

SpotlightValue: Matt Adams (DK $6,900/$4,600)

Adams will should see ABs for the Nationals – he’s 4-for-17 career off Cole with a HR and 5 Ks. He and Michael Taylor (1-for-6, HR, 2 Ks) are the only Nats hitters to have taken Cole deep. If he starts, Adams is my free square. He’s had a rough September/October, and has just three plate appearances in the 2019 postseason, but he’s had more ABs against Cole than anyone else except Asdrubal Cabrera. He’s also got a history of some October clout on his resume.

Otheroptions: Howie Kendrick (DK $11,400/$7,600), Adam Eaton (DK $8,100/$5,400),Victor Robles (DK $7,800/$5,200), Kurt Suzuki (DK $7,500/$5,000), MichaelTaylor (DK $6,600/$4,400)

10/22 DFS Houston Astros bats

AlexBregman (DK $13,800/$9,200)

Bregman’s bat was pretty quiet during the Yankees series, but I expect it to come alive in the World Series for two reasons: First, the Nationals pitchers – Scherzer especially – will challenge the AL MVP candidate a lot more than New York did. Secondly, Bregman only hit one homer in the postseason (against the Rays), but he’s carrying a .435 OBP through 11 games this October and sporting a wRC+ of 139 during that span. That tells me there’s nothing wrong with his plate approach or his bat.

CarlosCorrea (DK $10,200/$6,800)

The value we’re gettingon Correa is worth noting, as is the fact that he popped a couple homers in theALCS. The last couple days have offered him a chance to rest his ailing back,and as I mentioned before, the Nats pitchers are going to challenge Houstonhitters in ways that the Yankees didn’t have to – based on their elite bullpen.We forget about him because Houston is so loaded with talent, but Correa has a114 wRC+ in 181 postseason plate appearances, and he’s a 25-year-old in the primeof his career.

JoseAltuve (DK $14,100/$9,600)

The Game 6 hero is riding a wave into the World Series and should draw considerable ownership based on his game-winning efforts against the Bronx Bombers. He’s capable of filling up the state sheet with runs, hits and SBs, not to mention the occasional two-run walk-off homer. Pricing is more than fair and I’ll have some shares, but my ownership on Bregman and Correa might be a little higher.

Spotlight Value: Michael Brantley (DK $8,400/$5,600)

TheDK pricing algorithm seems to giving way too much credence to Brantley’spostseason numbers, which are admittedly weak from a career standpoint(.224/.293/.269 slash in 75 plate appearances). He’s carrying a respectable .340OBP this October despite struggling against a slew of excellent Yankees pitchers,but he’s done quite well in a pretty large BvP sample against Scherzer,slashing .341/.367/.636 in 44 career ABs with eight doubles and a HR. The restof the Astros have faced Mad Max 11 times or fewer, but Brantley feels like thefree square on Houston, especially bating out of the 3-hole. He’s my favoritevalue bat in the Showdown.

Other10/22 DFS options: Yuri Gurriel (DK $9,000/$6,000), George Springer (DK $13,500/$9,000),Martin Maldonado ($6,000/$4,000), Yordan Alvarez ($10,800/$7,200), Josh Reddick(DK $6,600/$4,400)

SampleDK Lineup (Houston-heavy: Cole as CPT with no Scherzer)

CPT – G. Cole ($18,000)
UTIL – A. Bregman (9,200)
UTIL – C. Correa ($6,800)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($5,600)
UTIL – A. Eaton ($5,400)
UTIL – M. Adams ($4,600)

SampleDK Lineup (Balanced: Cole as CPT with Scherzer at UTIL)

CPT – G. Cole ($18,000)
UTIL – M. Scherzer ($11,400)
UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($6,000)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($5,600)
UTIL – M. Adams ($4,600)
UTIL – M. Taylor ($4,400)

SampleDK lineup (Astros-heavy with both SP and Houston closer included)

CPT – G. Cole ($18,000)
UTIL – M. Scherzer ($11,400)
UTIL – C. Correa ($6,800)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($5,600)
UTIL – M. Adams ($4,600)
UTIL – R. Osuna ($3,000)

SampleDK lineup (Astros-heavy with Brantley at CPT and no Scherzer – GPP)

CPT – M. Brantley ($8,400)
UTIL – G. Cole ($12,000)
UTIL – A. Bregman ($9,200)
UTIL – J. Soto ($8,400)
UTIL – C. Correa ($6,800)
UTIL – M. Adams ($4,600)

10/22 DFS Hitters for FDSingle-game

Here we can just load upon Astros hitter and pick or (or two, in some cases) Nats hitters to meetrequirements and/or get a little bit squirrely.

SampleFD lineup #1

MVP (2x) – Bregman ($8,500)
All-Star (1.5x) – Brantley ($7,000)
UTIL – Correa ($7,500)
UTIL – Turner ($7,000)
UTIL – Adams ($4,000)

SampleFD lineup #2 ($0 left)

MVP (2x) – Bregman ($8,500)
All-Star (1.5x) – Altuve ($9,500)
UTIL – Correa ($7,500)
UTIL – Gurriel ($5,500)
UTIL – Adams ($4,000)

SampleFD lineup (Balanced)

MVP (2x) – Brantley ($7,000)
All-Star (1.5x) – Bregman ($8,500)
UTIL – Soto ($8,000)
UTIL – Kendrick ($6,000)
UTIL – Gurriel ($5,500)

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Total Home Runs — Goal: 1.50, Prize: 4x

Bregman, Brantley and Soto

I like these three for their matchups, though Brantley is a bit of a wild card. You can take the easy money with a 2x win if one of these guys goes deep, or count on two dingers to get 4x. Good luck!

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5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

10/19 DFS MLB: ALCS Showdown and Prop Picks

Andrew Erickson 5 years ago

written by Andrew Erickson

The 10/19 DFS picks for MLB at Win Daily Sports are ready, as the Yankees forced a Game 6 in the ALCS and hopped the first flight back to Houston

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10/19 DFS MLB: DK Showdown(8:08 p.m. EST)

10/19 DFSSP Strategy and Picks

The only pitcher I’ll have more than 10 percent exposure to herewill be Jose Urquidy, who ha a shot at pitching 2-3 innings of high-strikeout actionagainst a Yankees team that can pile up Ks and just had to fly back to Houston.Urquidy has 4 Ks in 1.2 IP of postseason action and finished the regular seasonwith a 24% K rate. He’s an option, I don’t like the Yankees options facing anAstros team that’s going to have great ABs.

Let’s move on to the hitters. That’s what we’re doing on FanDuelanyway – where our first sample lineup from 10/18 performed quite well.

10/19 DFS Hitters

The top hitter picks for the 10/19 DFS Showdown are going to bepretty balanced, leaning toward the Astros, especially without much worry aboutforcing in pitchers. Unfortunately, all the pricing for hitters is up and verytight – since we have no aces on the mound.

10/19 DFS New York Yankeesbats

Gleyber Torres (DK $14,400/$9,600)

Just one hit (a double) last night, but he’s got an excellent plate approach with the requisite kind of discipline that leads to production in key spots. None of the Yankees have faced Urquidy before, so I trust approach as much as anything here. I’m going right back to the well even though the price is up a tad.

DJ LeMahieu (DK $15,600/$10,400)

The ownership will be higher, but so is the price (higher than JoseAltuve!) – so I’m going to build a few lineups with Torres, LeMahieu and avalue Yankees bat, with a balanced group of Astros I like. Yesterday’s leadoffbomb may have been a Yankee Stadium special, but LeMahieu is aggressive at theplate and has excellent protection in the lineup, which coming back around sometimesprovides him ample baserunners to knock in a few (107 RBI in 2019). I might belower owned than last night, but he’s still part of my core build.

Gary Sanchez (DK $10,800/$7,200)

The price shot upbecause of the lag from Game 4’s HR, but I’m not off Gary. Hitters like thisneed to bust through their bad stints, and this certainly is a park where hehas an advantage, as the HR Park Factor for away RHBs was 156 for Minute Maidin 2019. If he’s in the lineup, I’m using him.

Aaron Hicks (DK $9,900/$6,600) and Aaron Judge ($13,800/$9,200)

The Aarons will be popular, and while I like them both in this matchup, the prices are also much higher. I’ll be around 20-40 percent ownership for both of them but they’re not core builds because of ownership (Hicks) and the price jump (Judge).

Otheroptions: Didi Gregorius (DK $8,100/$5400), Brett Gardner (DK $11,100/$7,400)

10/19 DFS Houston Astrosbats

Alex Bregman (DK $16,200/$10,800)

You can only avoid Bregman’sbat for so long, and he hit some balls on the screws last night that were rightat guys. He’s going to avoid high ownership because of the price, and he’s probablygoing to get a couple ABs against J.A. Happ tonight. The entire Houston lineupbrutalizes Happ, and I want the ringleaders (Bregman, Altuve and Yordan Alvarez)in as many lineups as they’ll fit.

George Springer (DK $15,900/$10,600) andCarlos Correa ($12,600/$8,400)

My outlook on both of these guys is similar – I’m going to beusing them together in stacks with Bregman and Altuve when possible, but mostlygrabbing one or the other. Springer makes more sense as a cash game play thanCorrea, who I like better for GPPs, even with Correa’s price staying the same.

JoseAltuve (DK $15,300/$10,200)

Altuve is itching for another breakout like he in Game 3, and he’sa much better hitter at home (.306/.372/.608 slash this season at home). I’llhave more shares than last night in GPPs, especially since the salary didn’tjump much.

Other10/18 DFS options: Martin Maldonado ($5,400/$3,600) Michael Brantley (DK $11,400/$7,600),Yordan Alvarez ($14,100/$9,400)

Sample DK Showdown Lineup (Yankees heavy):

Captain (1.5x) – G. Sanchez (10,800)

UTIL – A. Hicks ($6,600)

UTIL – Brantley ($7,600)

UTIL – Torres ($9,600)

UTIL – Gregorius ($6,200)

UTIL – Judge ($9,200)

SampleDK Showdown Lineup (Astros heavy)

Captain (1.5x) – Jose Altuve ($15,300)

UTIL – Correa ($8,400)

UTIL – Hicks ($6,600)

UTIL – J. Urquidy ($8,200)

UTIL – Brantley ($7,600)

UTIL – Maldonado ($3,600)

SampleDK Showdown Lineup (Balanced w/just bats for both teams):

Captain (1.5x) – Torres ($14,400)

UTIL – Correa ($8,400)

UTIL – Brantley ($7,600)

UTIL – Hicks ($6,600)

UTIL – Judge ($9,200)

UTIL – Maldonado ($3,600)

10/19 DFS Hitters for FDSingle-game

The prices haven’t changed much so we can tackle this similarly tolast night, though I’ll be using more Astros. I was very Yankees-heavy lastnight and it worked out.

SampleFD lineup (Yankees heavy, $500 left):

MVP (2x) – Torres ($6,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – Judge ($7,500)

UTIL – Altuve ($9,000)

UTIL – Hicks ($4,500)

UTIL – LeMahieu ($7,000)

SampleFD lineup (Astros heavy — $0 left):

MVP (2x) – Bregman ($8,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – Correa ($8,000)

UTIL – Hicks ($4,500)

UTIL – Alvarez ($7,000)

UTIL – LeMahieu ($7,000)

SampleFD lineup (Balanced – $500 left):

MVP (2x) – Judge ($7,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – Bregman ($8,500)

UTIL – Sanchez ($6,000)

UTIL – Correa ($8,000)

UTIL – Hicks ($4,500)

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Aaron Judge (+0.5), Jose Altuve (+0.5) and Gleyber Torres (+0.5)

I prefer Judge because he’s just as much of a threat to score as Springer and benfits from more RBI chances because of the Yankees 9 and 1 hitters.

Altuve is my pick because Yankee pitchers have been less careful with him than Bregman, who they’ve been staying away from. I really like the +0.5 here too,

I can’t rely at all on Stanton, and Torres is my guy. Let’s take it down!!!

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

10/15 DFS MLB Two-Game Postseason Slate and Showdown Picks

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

Things are heating up in the MLB and we’ve got two games on tapfor 10/15 DFS — here are my picks for the two-game slate and the featuredShowdown.

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10/15 DFS Two-Game Slate(DK & FD)

The games for 10/15 DFS: Houston Astros at New York Yankees (4:08 p.m. EST) & St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals (8:05 p.m. EST)

10/15DFS SP Strategy and Picks

Gerrit Cole isthe top pitcher and I don’t think even the Yankees can hit him, so I’ll beusing him with Luis Severino some of the better hitters from the Cards-Nats anda bat or two from the Astros – and maybe one at most from the Yankees.

SP1: GerritCole (DK $10,200, FD $11,800)

Cole’s game logs are preposterous to look at, as he’s struck out10 batters or more in his last 11 starts. The Bombers lefty bats could yank oneout in the short right field porch, but he’s bound for another 10+ Ks and 7+ inningsof low-WHIP hurling.

SP2: LuisSeverino (DK $6,900, FD $7,800)

Given his price and my narrative of stacking against the pitchers in the NLCS game, I’ll need to plug him in here and hope for the best. This probably isn’t a game the Yankees will win unless Severino pitches extremely well and taps into the home splits (3.55 ERA career, 27.9% K rate and .288 wOBA at Yankee Stadium in his career).

10/15 DFS Hitters

10/15 DFS C: Yadier Molina, STL (DK $3,300, FD $2,600)

Molina is the only viable value option at C if we fade the Astros-Yanks. I’ll eat the chalk here, because Yadier is a HOF catcher who refuses to go out like a chump and get swept by the Nats.

10/15 DFS 1B: Paul Goldschmidt, STL (DK $4,400, FD $3,800)

Goldschmidt is cheaper than Howie Kendrick and facing a LHP (148wRC+ and .298 ISO vs. LHPs in 2019). He’s locked into the 1B slot in mylineups. Pivot: Kendrick

10/15 DFS 2B: D.J. LeMahieu, NYY (DK $4,500, 1B on FD $3,700)

LeMahieu is a contact hitter with power to all fields and he’s batting leadoff – so he’s guaranteed the most plate appearances for the Yankees. My sole contrarian bat at what feels like a reasonable price, I’ll be counting on him to differentiate. Pivot: Jose Altuve

10/15 DFS 3B: Anthony Rendon, WAS (DK $5,100, FD $4,000)

The chalk here will probably be Alex Bregman, since he’s $100cheaper than the Nats 3B and facing a hittable righty in Yankee Stadium, but Rendonhas a .241 ISO vs. RHPs and Dakota Hudson doesn’t have very high K numbers(7.01 K/9 in 2019) Pivot: Bregman

10/15 DFS SS: Paul DeJong, STL, (DK $4,000, FD $2,800)

Another not-too-exciting play, DeJong did manage to collect acouple hits in Game 3 and should remain low-owned with some of the bugger nameslike Trea Turner, Bregman and Gleyber Torres at SS. Pivot: Torres

10/15 DFS OF: Josh Reddick, HOU (DK $3,400, FD $2,600)

The lanky lefty gets the start in right field in Game 3 even thoughhe struggled at the plate during the ALDS (1-for-10). He’s avalue play who’s hit righties well over the course of his career (110 wRC+,.172 ISO). Pivot:Dexter Fowler, Victor Robles

10/15 DFS OF: Marcell Ozuna, STL (DK $4,900, FD $3,900)

Ozuna has cooled off a bit at the plate since the NLDS, but he still collected two hits (including a double) last night against the Nats. He previously had multi-hit games in all of the NLDS games except Game 5, when the game was out of reach for the opposition after the huge first inning. Pivot: Yordan Alvarez

10/15 DFS OF: Jose Martinez, STL (DK $4,000, FD $2,400)

Another plug-n-play for his value, Martinez could be overlookedsince he’s been out of the lineup so much in the playoffs. But he’s likelygetting the start against LHP Patrick Corbin and has plenty of upside for hisprice. Pivot: Michael Brantley

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10/15 DFS FeaturedSingle-Game (8:08 EST on FD)

Sample FD lineup:

MVP (2x) – M. Ozuna (8,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – A. Rendon ($9,500)

UTIL – D. Fowler ($6,500)

UTIL – J. Martinez ($4,000)

UTIL – P. DeJong ($6,500)

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10/15 DFS FeaturedShowdown (8:08 EST on DK)

Sample DK Showdown Lineup:

Captain (1.5x) – M Ozuna ($13,500)

UTIL – V. Robles ($7,600)

UTIL – J. Martinez ($8,000)

UTIL – Y. Molina ($5,000)

UTIL – P. DeJong ($7,200)

UTIL – D. Hudson ($8,200)

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

9/26 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Indians Can’t Cease Fire

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The main slate for 9/26 DFS is just a simple, five-game assembly of MLB DFS matchups featuring some playoff implications and some sneaky stacks! Let’s find the best one-off plays and a couple quality stacks to get you on the road to cash!

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9/26 DFS Hitting Stacks ofthe Day

Cleveland Indians at DylanCease

With Jose Ramirez back, the Indians have another titanic bat in their lineup as they try to sneak into the playoffs via the Wild Card. Eliminated from securing their fourth straight AL Central title with Wednesday’s loss (coupled with a victory by the Minnesota Twins), the Indians have a Thursday night matchup that bodes well for the bats facing a hittable Dylan Cease (5.79 ERA). Expect Francisco Lindor to erase that poor showing last night and get some exposure to the 2-5 bats, along with Franmil Reyes and a dirt-cheap Mike Freeman ($3,200 DK, $2,500 FD) at the bottom of the order.

Oakland Athletics atSeattle Mariners

We’ve come to expect a lot from the A’s as September winds down, and this is a prime opportunity for the bats to come alive and pile on some runs on this 9/26 DFS slate. Mark Canha left the game early last night and Khris Davis is battling a stomach bug, but there are plenty of bats to go to in their stead, and while Felix Hernandez is a historically solid pitcher, he’s nearing the end of his career (6.51 ERA this season) and just isn’t the same old King Felix. The A’s also hit well on the road, with a .329 wOBA as a team. I like Matt Olson, Matt Chapman and Marcus Semien.

Houston Astros at JaimeBarria

The Astros plan on sitting Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer, but that just means you can grab some value at the top of their lineup with Kyle Tucker and mix in some “next man up” types who’ve performed well in limited duty this season. They’re not my favorite stack for 9/26 DFS, but they’re certainly viable and a little cheaper to fit in without all the regulars.

9/26 DFS Hitting Stacks toConsider

Chicago Cubs at Joe Musgrove – The Cubs face ahittable pitcher who can hand out free passes and get lit up as easily as hecan rack up the Ks.

New York Mets vs. Jordan Yamamoto – Yamamoto isn’t a bad young pitcher, but he struggles with RHBs and the Mets have a bunch of really good ones.

9/26 DFS HittingCatcher

Wilson Ramos, NYM vs. MIA

DK ($3,600) FD ($2600)

Unfortunately, the pickings are slim at catcher today, so I’ll be looking to Wilson Ramos and his power upside. The Mets regular catcher is slashing .286/.350/.415 this season and Yamamoto has trouble with right-handed bats (.322wOBA vs. RHBs, .250 wOBA vs. LHBs). Just make sure he’s in the lineup before you lock him in.

9/26 DFS Hitting FirstBaseman

Matt Olson, OAK at SEA

DK (4,600) FD ($3,700)

My affinity for Matt Olson is well-known among my peers, and he’s deliveredfor me time and again in GPPs. This matchup is an interesting one, because Olsonhas a .293 ISO and 150 wRC+ against righties. Olson, who’s been hitting forpower this month with a .345 ISO, will likely face a couple of RHPs and has agood chance at going deep in this game.

9/26 DFS Hitting SecondBaseman

Aledmys Diaz, HOU at LAA

DK($4,100) FD ($2,900)

With some Astros sitting, Diaz probably gets another start tonight and is carrying a decent slash line (.271/.349/.457) into the 9/26 contest. He has a 122 wRC+ against RHPs this season, is fairly priced on DK and is unbelievably cheap on FD. It looks like I may give him a shot in about half my lineups this evening.

9/26 DFS Hitting ThirdBaseman

Matt Chapman, OAK at SEA

(DK $4,100) FD ($3,600)

Mr. Chapman homered last night, is very affordable on both sites, and is slightly better against RHPs (124 wRC+ vs. RHPs, 122 wRC+ vs. LHPs). While he had a relatively quiet September, I like the matchup for Chapman against King Felix here here — and there are not many 3B who stick out in this slate other than him, Alex Bregman (who’s available at SS on DK), and Yoan Moncada.

9/26 DFSHitting Shortstop

Alex Bregman, HOU at LAA

DK ($2,600) FD ($2,000)

Some of the veteran Astros players will get spelled tonight, but Bregman is slated to stay in the lineup and is red hot at the plate (3-4, two 2B, RBI, R last night). He sports a robust 168 wRC+ and is slashing .298/.421/.595 triple-slash line with 119 runs scored, 40 homers, 110 RBI and five steals this season. The hard-hitting Bregman is a fine place to anchor your SS slot.

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9/26 DFS HittingOutfielders

Kyle Tucker, HOU at LAA

DK($4,800) FD ($2,900)

Tucker draws the leadoff spot for 9/26 DFS a night after launching a solo homer against the Mariners. With Jose Altuve getting the day off, he takes over a prime spot in the Astros lineup and has done ell with his chances so far: The 22-year-old rookie outfielder is hitting .304/.339/.571 with 11 runs scored, three HRs, 10 RBI and five SB in 59 plate appearances this season. The price on DK is fair, but on FD he’s just way too cheap.

Brandon Nimmo, NYM vs. MIA

DK ($3,900) FD ($2,900)

I love Nimmo in the leadoff spot today for the Mets, who don’t havea lot to play for but still have an exciting group of young hitters. Nimmo hasa 133 wRC+ against RHPs in his career and will have plenty of run scoringopportunities here. He also has a 16.4 BB% facing RHPs in his career and a 19.7BB% this season against righties – a nice patience complement to his burgeoningpower.

Kyle Schwarber, CHC at PIT

DK ($3,800) FD ($2,700)

While he’s not much of a contact/average hitter, Schwarber has been heating up at the plate (2-4 last night with a pair of singles on Wednesday) just in time for his team to be eliminated from the playoffs. Schwarber is hitting .248/.337/.527 with 37 homers, 91 RBI and 80 runs scored in 152 games overall in 2019, and he’s got a great matchup vs. RHP Joe Musgrove.

9/26 DFS Additional StackOptions:

C: Wilson Contreras ($4,700 DK, $3,000 FD), Sean Murphy ($4,000DK, $2,900 FD)

1B: Anthony Rizzo ($4,900 DK, $3,900 FD), Pete Alonso ($5,000 DK,$4,000 FD)

2B: Ian Happ ($4,000 DK, $2,600 FD), Yolmer Sanchez ($2,700 DK) ($2,300FD)

3B: Yoan Moncada ($4,800 DK, $3,500 FD), David Fletcher ($3,900DK, $2,800 FD)

SS: Francisco Lindor ($4,600 DK, $4,200 FD), Jack Mayfield ($2,600 DK, $2,000 FD)

OF: Yordan Alvarez ($5,400 DK, $4,400 FD), Nick Castellanos ($4,600DK, $3,800 FD), Michael Brantley ($4,000 DK, $3,500 FD), Oscar Mercado ($4,900DK, $3,400 FD), Michael Conforto ($4,600 DK, $3,500 FD), Robbie Grossman, ($3,500DK, $2,400 FD),

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

9/17 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Mets Marauding Melville

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got a loaded 14-game 7:05 EST main slate for MLB 9/17 DFS – one that we’ve got some high game totals for, including another big-time stack at Coors. The lineups get unstable toward the end of the year, but that just gives us more opportunities to embrace the variance and make it fun on this enormous slate.

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9/17 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

NewYork Mets at Tim Melville (NYM at COL)

The Mets are expensive but have the highest implied total on the slate. Last night they scored just four runs in Coors but on Tuesday get to face Melville, who’s been torched in his three home starts (.516 xwOBA, 9.00 ERA, 6.31 xFIP). I’ll be applying a liberal smattering of Mets hitters in most of my lineups, with most of my exposure coming with the first five hitters: Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Robinson Cano and Pete Alonso. Wilson Ramos is a very affordable $2,900 on FD as well, where he can be used in one of two spots.

Boston Red Sox vs. Logan Webb (BOS vs. SF)

The Sox may be missing Mookie Betts (foot) but they’re still a powerful bunch of bats in a hitter’s park. Logan Webb has been tuned up for a .400 xwOBA vs. RHP) during his short time in the Majors, and he’s not going to like the ballpark shift from Oracle. The usual suspects (Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez and Andrew Benintendi) are all $5,000 or under on DK, and Mitch Moreland is just $4,200.

Toronto Blue Jays at Dylan Bundy/Chandler Shepherd

The Blue Jays are a sneaky stack in a slate with Coors Field on the docket, and they’ll be playing in Baltimore, where the homers fly out and the Orioles pitching staff has reached a new nadir in allowing the long ball. I’m stacking the 1-5 with occasional shares of Randal Grichuk ($4,300 DK) and Billy McKinney ($3,300 DK).

Cleveland Indians vs. John Schreiber/Spencer Turnbull (CLE vs.DET)

The Indians are underpriced for the matchup on this 9/17 DFS slate, whether it’s against Schreiber (the possible opener) or Turnbull, who’s really struggled this season (3-15 in 27 starts with a 4.77 ERA and 1.48 WHIP). I’m leaning toward mini-stacks considering there are so many other great matchups on this slate, but feel free to grab shares of the 1-5 hitters and get some exposure to the value bats (Franmil Reyes, Mike Freeman and Jordan Luplow, if he’s in the lineup).

9/17 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Atlanta Braves at Vince Velazquez (It’s tough to fadeFreeman and Co. in a hitter’s park)

Miami Marlins at LHP Alex Young (all the righties –including my guy Starlin Castro)

Colorado Rockies vs. Marcus Stroman (The contrarian side ofCoors against a decent RHP)

9/17 DFS Hitting Catcher

J.T. Realmuto, PHI at ATL

DK ($4,600) FD ($3,900)

I’m a huge fan of Realmuto, who sports a .443 xwOBA and .227 ISO against LHPs over the past two seasons. It’s a one-off play that should command low ownership and provide a decent floor – as well as immense upside in GPPs.

9/17 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Rowdy Tellez, TOR at BAL

DK ($3,900) FD ($2,600)

Tellez has four homers in his last 11 games, crushes right-handedpitching (.453 xwOBA, .245 ISO since 2018), and bats fourth between Lourdes Gurrieland Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. Tellez is my double-dinger call of the day, and he’snot really thrown off by lefty relievers, either (.430 xwOBA against LHPs since2018).

9/17 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Cavan Biggio, TOR at BAL

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,700)

Biggio is another Jays bat I want exposure to in Camden Yards, where he’s already got three homers in five career games and a 168 OPS+ that screams GPP play. As part of stack or simply a value bat at a reasonable price, Biggio makes a solid play for his speed and power.

9/17 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Matt Chapman, OAK vs. KC

DK ($4,200) FD ($3,600)

Chapman and his surging power numbers (4 HRs in September so far) couldbe overlooked on this slate, and if you’re wary of spending more than $5K for J.D.Davis but still want to get some other Coors bats in, he could be a big help.All these games matter for the A’s, and Chapman (.423 xwOBA and .250 ISO vs.RHPs since 2018) is the heart and soul of their lineup along with Matt Olsonand Marcus Semien, the other two Oakland bats with 30+ homers this year.

9/17 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Francisco Lindor, CLE vs. DET

DK ($4,800) FD ($4,000)

Lindor is my favorite shortstop of this slate. He gets lotsof ABs and benefits from a circular Indians lineup that has some decent hittersat the bottom of the order – giving him some run-creating opportunities alongwith table-setting ability. His price is cheaper than Xander Bogaerts, Trevor Storyand Bo Bichette on DK (with just as much GPP upside) and he’s playable in allformats at home (where he owns a .386 wOBA and .403 xwOBA sine 2018) against theTigers.

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9/17 DFS Hitting Outfielders

J.D. Martinez, BOS vs. SF

DK ($4,000) FD ($3,200)

Idiscussed the Red Sox stack up top, but if there’s one bat from Boston I’d likein this matchup, it’s J.D. His .506 xwOBA vs. RHPs since 2018 (over a hugesample of 998 plate appearances) means he can hit all types of pitching (it’s apreposterous .560 vs. LHPs) and he’s still surrounded by Bogaerts andBenintendi, who both hit RHPs well. I’m banking on a three-run homer for the RedSox OF/DH in hitter-friendly Fenway against young Logan Webb (.400 xwOBA vs. RHP).

Oscar Mercado, CLE vs. DET

DK ($4,100) FD ($3,000)

Thehome numbers for Mercado are impressive (.290/.340/.477) and his bat has beenshowing some life again (10 hits in his last 26 AB). You’re getting thetalented young OF at a discount on both sites, and he’s a great piece to havein Indians mini stacks along with Lindor and Carlos Santana.

Garrett Hampson, COL vs. NYM

DK ($3,500) FD ($3,200)

Hampson is red-hot at the plate and is dirt cheap onDK. He’s played much better since getting more regular time, starting in theRockies’ last five straight and games and going 11-for-22 over that stretch(counting Monday night). He’s easy to overlook in the lineup as the No. 7 hitterand makes plenty of sense in both cash games and GPPs.

Additional options:

C:Roberto Perez ($3,600 DK, $2,900FD), Reese McGuire ($3,900 DK, $2,800 FD)

1B: Pete Alonso ($5,600 DK, $4,300 FD), Carlos Santana($4,300 DK, $3,900 FD)

2B: Robinson Cano ($4,700 DK, $3,600 FD), Jonathan Villar($4,700 DK, $3,800 FD)

3B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr, ($3,900 DK, $2,900 FD), EugenioSuarez ($4,500 DK, $3,900 FD)

SS: Bo Bichette ($5,400 DK, $3,900 FD), Xander Bogaerts ($5,000DK, 3,800 FD)

OF: Austin Meadows ($5,600 DK, $4,400 FD), Yordan Alvarez ($5,200DK, $4,100 FD), Brandon Nimmo ($4,500 DK, $3,900 FD), Khris Davis ($3,800 DK,$3,200 FD), Michael Brantley ($4,000 DK, $3,800 FD), Matt Joyce ($4,100 DK, $2,400FD)

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

9/12 DFS Hitting Picks & Stacks: Big Bats for Thursday

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

Today is thirsty Thursday, and I’m going to quench you with some easily digestible lineup selections for the 9/12 DFS main slate, which kicks off at 7:05 and has just seven games. We’ve got DFS stacks, one-offs and some standout options for GPPs, including one squad that’s bound to break through against a veteran hurler with limited stuff. Let’s go win some green!

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9/12 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

Atlanta Braves at Drew Smyly

I’m going GPP before cash here and picking on a pitcher with a 2.16% HR/FB rate in Drew Smyly. You can stack Coors all you want in the afternoon slates (what’s with the 2-1 games, fellas?), but I’m looking to a talented Braves lineup that’s loaded with powerful right-handed bats and some left-handed hitters like Freddie Freeman who don’t crumble when a southpaw is on the mound. Atlanta carries a .331 team wOBA against LHPs and Smyly is eminently hittable. The classic 1-5 stack is in play, as are platoon bats Austin Riley (.291/.375/.745 slash) and GPP favorite Adam Duvall (if he cracks the lineup).

LosAngeles Dodgers at Dylan Bundy

Yup, I’m going right back to the Dodgers despite an anemicperformance last night against John Means, who’s a pretty good pitcher in hisown right. Dylan Bundy is a lot easier to attack from both sides of the plate(.398 xwOBA vs. LHBs and .391 vs. RHBs), so I’m not concerned about keepinganybody off. Lefties Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger and Matt Beaty are all duefor offensive breakouts and Gavin Lux ($2,600 on DK, $2,800 on FD) and CoreySeager ($4,500 on DK, $3,600 on FD) are plenty affordable as well.

Houston Astros vs. Homer Bailey

His name is Homer, and these are the power-hitting Astros. I’m not trying to oversimplify things, because there’s plenty of data to support a blitz on Bailey –including a park shift that favors Houston over the veteran right-hander. Bailey has yielded a .429 xOBA to righties since 2018 when pitching his home games in Oakland and Kansas City, and the Astros are at home and have bats from both sides of the plate that I want exposure to here, including George Springer, Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez. Value options include Aledmys Diaz and Abraham Toro, not to mention inexpensive catcher Robinson Chirinos.

9/12 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Washington Nationals at Kyle Gibson

Boston Red Sox at Clay Buchholz

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jhoulys Chacin

9/12 DFS Hitting Catcher

Francisco Cervelli, ATL at PHI

DK ($2,700) FD ($2,300)

This is a pure value play considering the Braves have so much talent throughout their lineup and Cervelli does a pretty good job (.414 xwOBA) vs. LHPs. He’s a cheap fifth batter in Braves stacks on DK and makes for an inexpensive utility or C-1B play on FD — if you can stomach rostering just three other bats from this team.

9/12 DFSHitting First Baseman

Mitch Moreland, BOS at TOR

DK ($4,000) FD ($2,800)

You’re getting a great matchup in the middle of a stacked lineup for cheap price with Moreland. Big Mitch has BvP covered in a 4-for-8 small sample against Buchholz, who’s he’s homered against, and there’s plenty to like about going with this sneaky lefty at your 1B spot in a crowded GPP field focused on bigger names. Moreland has double-dinger potential and makes for a fine one-off or part of a Sox mini-stack.

9/12 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Nick Solak, TEX vs. TB

DK ($4,100) FD ($3,300)

Going right back to the well with Solak, who’s made me look good in this spot, and doesn’t command a very high price. The Rangers are probably only worth considering for a contrarian, large-field GPP stack because they’ve struggled against lefties this season (just a .308 wOBA and 82wRC+), but Solak offers a .379 ISO against LHPs and the venue is ripe for hitting. I’m not scared of Brendan McKay, even though he’s been able to whiff some bats here and there, and Solak is in the heart of the Rangers lineup with plenty of run-producing opportunities.

9/12 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Josh Donaldson, ATL at PHI

DK ($5,200) FD ($3,500)

Donaldson is historically good against LHPs with a career xwOBA of .XXX and he’s destroyed Smyly in 19 career ABs, including nine hits, three HRs and a 1.629 OPS. Whatever sample size you’re looking at, he’s a great play in a hitter’s park in that potent Atlanta lineup. He and Acuna will be the main focus of my Braves stacks.

9/12 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Corey Seager, LAD at BAL

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,600)

Even after a recent two-homer night, the price on Seager isaffordable and the slick young shortstop has resumed the No. 2 slot in the Dodgersorder. I’ve mentioned my affinity for attacking Bundy in Camden Yards, and thisslate provides an opportunity to get one of the highest upside shortstops (rightthere with Xander Bogaerts) at a cut rate.

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9/12 DFS Hitting Outfielders

Andrew Benintendi, BOS at TOR

DK ($4,000) FD ($3,200)

The Red Sox have been slumping at the plate, but Benintendi’s numbers over the past two seasons against RHBs (.405 xwOBA) make me excited to play him against Buchholz. There aren’t too many outfielders at this price point with as much run-producing upside.

Michael Brantley, HOU vs. OAK

DK ($4,300) FD ($4,000)

I have no qualms about you stacking the Astros outfield in its entirety and using both Alvarez and Springer, but if there’s one bat I’d lean towards as a one-off, especially if I’m building an expensive stack elsewhere, it’s Brantley. He’s always a little too cheap and offers plenty of upside with excellent numbers at home (.381 wOBA) and against RHPs (.207 ISO).

Ronald Acuna, Jr., ATL at PHI

DK ($5,500) FD ($4,100)

Acuna has a .488 xwOBA and .277 ISO vs. LHPs this season andremains the premier leadoff hitter in the NL. He’s an essential part of myBraves stacks, sometimes gets ignored because of his lofty price tag, and isplayable in both cash games and GPPs for his solid floor and soaring upside.

Additional options:

C: Robinson Chirinos ($3,800 DK), Reese McGuire ($3,300 DK)

1B: Jesus Aguilar ($2,800 FD), Matt Adams ($3,400 DK)

2B: Cavan Biggio ($4,200 DK) Brad Miller ($3,000 DK)

3B: Kyle Seager ($4,300 DK), Eugenio Suarez ($4,700 DK)

SS: Bo Bichette ($5,000 DK), Xander Bogaerts (4,900 DK)

OF: Aristides Aquino ($3,700 FD), Philip Ervin ($3,300 DK),Jonathan Davis ($2,600 DK), Danny Santana ($4,700 DK) Jay Bruce (GPP option at 3,800on DK)

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

8/23 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks

Joel Bartilotta 5 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Stay focused!!! I know we’re all giddy to eventually dive into NFL DFS and various Fantasy football drafts, but the 8/23 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks are set for you to make plenty of the long green.

There are 14 games awaiting, with all but Nationals-Cubs being played under the lights, highlighted by a Yankees-Dodgers series that will feel like an October tease. There’s not a monster stack here, but there’s a couple worth considering.

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8/22 DFS Hitting Catcher

Christian Vazquez, BOS at SD

DK ($3,800), FD ($2,700)

Vazquez brings a 1.007 OPS over the past week to Petco Park. While his plate discipline is questionable on the road (.309 OBP), it’s more than made up for by Vazquez’s .509 slugging percentage and .818 OPS in away games, as Vazquez has swatted 10 of his 18 homers away from Fenway. The .202 Isolated Power and 33.9% hard contact rate — both career highs — are continuing to hold up, as his .862 OPS this month is marked improvement over the .778 OPS he produced in July. He gets a good matchup in rookie hurler Chris Paddack, who leads the league with a 70.1 strikeout rate, but has a 43.1% hard contact rate that has made him suspect to brutality at times.

8/23 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Carlos Santana, CLE vs. KC

DK ($4,600), FD ($3,700)

Few have mauled pitchers in the manner Santana has over the past two weeks, as he’s gone on a .364/.485/.745 (1.230 OPS) with six homers, 16 RBI and 17 runs scored. He borders on Must-Start as he’s worn out Royals pitching to the tune of .292/.460/.542 (1.002 OPS) with three homers, 10 runs scored and 15 walks. Santana’s 17% walk rate and 14.8% strikeout rate pairs well against the Royals’ pitching staff, which is 23rd in walks allowed and 27th in Ks from their hurlers.

Santana’s damage to pitchers is more impressive considering he has just a 16.1% line drive rate and a modest 36.8% fly ball rate. The 43.8% hard contact rate is loud when adding his patience at the plate.

8/23 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Keston Hiura, MIL vs. ARI

DK ($4,800), FD ($3,600)

Yeesh, that 30.5% strikeout rate. Yet if you can live with the whiffs, you’ll take the upside of Hiura, who has scored seven runs and produced five extra base hits (all doubles) in the past week. Hiura has shaken off the lack of plate discipline with a .414 BABIP along with a .267 Isolated Power that is better than expected at this stage. You have to like the balance that comes from his batted ball rates, as he’s spraying line drives (24.5%) and getting the ball in the air (40.3%) while delivering a solid 43.4% hard contact rate and a 40.9% medium contact rate.

Hiura has thrived well against Diamondbacks pitching, going .389/.389/.667 in 18 at-bats. He’ll get the inconsistent Merrill Kelly on the mound for Arizona, which should translate into a good Friday for Hiura.

8/23 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Mike Moustakas, MIL vs. ARI

DK ($4,100), FD ($3,800)

Bah Gawd! Are we playing our hand when it comes to an 8/23 DFS Hitting and Stacks Stack? Well…um….maybe. Moustakas has hit the D’Backs well this season, going .313/.389/.688 (1.077 OPS) with a homer and five RBI in 16 at-bats. He’s also coming into Friday having homered four times in the past week along with 11 RBI and a 1.550 OPS. Moustakas is riding the wave of a career year in Isolated Power (.269) with a 19.3% HR/FB rate that has bolstered those totals.

Both he and Hiura should thrive against Merrill Kelly, who has a .329 OBA this month. Kelly has a 5.40 ERA in August despite allowing just one run in his last outing.

8/23 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Tim Anderson, CWS vs. TEX

DK ($4,800), FD ($3,100)

Anderson has quietly produced a heck of a breakout season, one that has seen him hit .433 over the past week along with scoring at least one run in seven of his last eight games. That he’s competing for the A.L. batting title despite a 2.6% walk rate is one of the more befuddling things you’ll see this season, but Anderson is living large due in part to a .391 BABIP and the ability to spray the hell of out the ball throughout the field.

He’s still a good play against Rangers ace Lance Lynn, as Anderson has hit Texas pitching to a .462/.462/.779 slash with a homer and five ribbies this season.

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8/23 DFS Hitting Outfielder

Michael Brantley, HOU vs. LAA

DK ($5,300), FD ($4,000)

Let’s try to forget the fact he’s hitting .440-2-4 over the past week. Instead, look at how he’s owned Angels pitching this season. The 8/23 DFS Hitting and Stacks MVP, Brantley has a .484/.515/1.000 (1.515 OPS) with four homers, nine RBI and 12 runs scored. Career year? Damn straight it is, as Brantley sports a .206 Isolated Power and .345 BABIP along with a 14% HR/FB%. The Angels have yet to decide who will get the start, but seriously, is it going to matter to Brantley?

8/23 DFS Hitting Outfielder

Aristides Aquino, CIN at PIT

DK ($5,400), FD ($4,300)

He’s looked human over the past week, hitting just .174, but he’s quietly improved his plate discipline to a 9.3% walk rate. The freakish .507 Isolated Power is still there, while his 44.9% hard contact rate has cooled off. For all the uncertainty about using him, Pirates starter Mitch Keller’s 4.22 BB/9 and 8.86 ERA are tempting enough to use Aquino with the bet that Keller will continue to let hitters pound him with a .977 OPS and 29% line drive rate. It’s an expensive play, but I’m willing to suggest rolling the dice on Aquino paying off.

8/23 DFS Hitting Outfielder

Willie Calhoun, TEX vs. CWS

DK ($4,800), FD ($3,700)

Don’t count on Calhoun going hitless against White Sox hurler Dylan Cease tonight. Calhoun has three homers over the past week, which makes his bat attractive to Cease’s pitching, as the rookie has allowed 10 homers over 44 innings. Calhoun’s 43.6% fly ball rate will play well in gopher-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field. as will a 52.3% pull rate when it comes to assaulting the foul pole in right field. He is also a more potent away hitter, producing a .939 OPS outside of Arlington.

8/23 DFS Hitting Stacks

8/23 Hitting Stack of the Night: Houston Astros: Brantley is the anchor of an H-Town stack, with Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman (1.253 OPS, four homers, 12 RBI versus the Angels) a pair of monster options. You’d have to choose between two of the three, but Jake Marisnick, who is hitting .455 with an 1.174 OPS against the Angels, is cheap enough to add in the outfield, allowing you to spend elsewhere.

8/23 Hitting Stack Runner-Up: Milwaukee Brewers: Hiura and Moustakas are the beginning of a stack that would include Ryan Braun, who has a pair of homers over the past week with a suddenly revived Lorenzo Cain (.462 over the last week). The makings are there for a very potent stack that appears ready to make some serious cake.

8/23 Hitting Stack to Consider: Cincinnati Reds: Aquino is expensive but utility man Josh VanMeter (.364 the past week) should be a good add at a reasonable price. Eugenio Suarez has gone deep against the Pirates, while Nick Senzel has hit .462 versus the Bucs. Had Joey Votto not gone on the DL, the Reds might have been Stack of the Night.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

DFS MLB Hitting and Monkey Knife Fight Picks for 7/18

Mark Paquette 5 years ago

written by Mark Paquette

First Base

Christian Walker, Brewers at Diamondbacks ($3000 FD, $4600 DK): An extremely affordable piece of a potent offense, Walker and the rest of the Snakes get a shot at Zach Davies, who is nothing more than a mediocre pitcher. Look for the momentum the Diamondbacks offense displayed last night to continue. Look to the other side of the diamond in Eric Thames ($2700 FD, $4500 DK) for another affordable DFS MLB option. Opposing pitcher Merrill Kelly has not been anything special.

Second Base

Keston Hiura, Brewers at Diamondbacks ($3600 FD, $5000 DK): His price has risen according to his talent. Recently moved up to the cleanup spot, Hiura gets the same matchup that Thames does and I am beginning to see a trend that a Brewers stack could be in a good spot.

Franklin Barreto, Athletics at Twins ($2400 FD, $3700 DK): He is an affordable piece of a hot Athletics offense that gets a major park upgrade heading to Minnesota. An especially good place to hit for righties. Look for Barreto to deposit a ball into the bleachers, something he has done twice in the last six games.

Shortstop

Marcus Semien, Athletics at Twins ($3300 FD, $4500 DK): For many of the same reasons that I like Barreto, I like Semien. Should be batting out of the leadoff spot too!

Didi Gregorius (N/A FD, $3600 DK): is in another DFS MLB bat I was looking at, but because it is the second game of a doubleheader, you will have to be waiting on the Yankees lineup. The price on DK might be too good to ignore if he plays.

Third Base

Anthony Rendon, Nationals at Braves ($4400 FD, $5100 DK): Rendon is consistently hitting the ball with authority and power. But he has not had a true monster DFS MLB game in awhile. That could change tonight with a major park upgrade.

Mike Moustakas, Brewers at Diamondbacks ($3800 FD, $4700 DK): He is in a good spot as well as a major part of the powerful and deep Brewers offense.

Outfield

Michael Brantley, Astros at Angels ($3800 FD, $4500 DK): History tells us to target lefty bats against Matt Harvey and in Anaheim for DFS MLB purposes. With Yordan Alvarez battling a knee injury and questionable to play, Brantley is the best lefty bat Houston has.

Ronald Acuna Jr., Nationals at Braves ($4000 FD, $4700 DK): He has stolen four bases in his last four games. In the previous four games before that stretch, he hit 3 HRs. He is the the best power-speed guy in the game today and going against Strasburg should not scare you away.

Ketel Marte, Brewers at Diamondbacks ($3700 FD, $5300 DK): He is an important part of any DFS MLB stack or mini-stack of Diamondbacks batters.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

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Let’s go for a minimum of 1 HR from this trio below: