Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s 10-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!
There are some weather issues tonight but we can exploit that by playing at least one pitchers folks might stay away from because of the PPD threat in Yankee Stadium.
Cole was brilliant in his last start and there’s nobody (except possibly Brandon Woodruff) with the upside he carries into this matchup. It’s the Red Sox, so it’s not an easy task, but he’s carried a 33.5% K rate into the All-Star break and could easily hit double digit Ks against this bunch. The only thing that worries me is the weather, so be ready to pivot to Woodward or another high-priced option like Anthony Desclafani in cash games if it gets to be a tighter window of clean weather.
The price on Castillo does not reflect his consistency this season or the ceiling that he has in MLB DFS. Again — the biggest problem I have with using him is weather, and if the chances for a delay are low enough I’ll take that chance in some GPPs. Castillo struggled with his command all day against the Brewers in his last outing, needing 102 pitches just to get through 5.1IP, but he did rack up 6 Ks. I think he’ll right some of that ship in another crack at this not-very-scary Brewers lineup.
Eovaldi handles the Yankees quite well, scoring 46 points (June 4 outing @NYY: 6.0 IP, 7 Ks, 1 ER) and 48 points (June 28 outing vs. NYY: 7.2 IP, 6 Ks, 1 ER) in his last two appearances facing the Bombers — who are missing some firepower tonight and are still stocked with plenty of right-handed batters. Adam Strangis discusses some of that upside in his must-read 7/17 Starting Rotation article, and I’m buying into that upside as a reasonably priced GPP option. Ownership should be low and I still think Eovaldi could get to double digit strikeouts as long as they finish this before the rain comes.
The Dodgers in Coors Field are going to be the highest owned stack, but let’s consider the Padres. It’s fun to pick on Patrick Corbin, and the red-hot Padres lineup looks ready to go again tonight — but only if the weather cooperates. The smart-money weather sharps are projecting a late start and completed game, but we’ll have to double check before lineup lock to see if that’s still the case. Getting Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4,300), Manny Machado ($3,800), Tommy Pham ($2,900) and Wil Myers ($2,500) into my stack would be the top priority.
There’s no threat of bad weather and the Angels are loaded with value in this matchup against hittable Yusei Kikuchi. Aside from the mopre expensive Shohei Ohtani ($4,500) and Jared Walsh ($3,500), we can find lots of value in David Fletcher ($2,900), Max Stassi ($2,800) and Taylor Ward ($2,500). I’d probably try a few different combinations to mix things up, but I like that five-player pool of bats on this “other” LA team tonight.
I’m not convinced the Braves won’t just rock Josh Fleming off the mound early tonight and I’m really interested in starting the big righty bats, including switch-hitting Ozzie Albies ($3,700), Dansby Swanson ($3,300) and Austin Riley ($3,100), with lefty 1B Freddie Freeman ($4,100) finishing off the four-man stack. Ownership will be low but these guys have massive upside in this matchup. Catcher Kevan Smith is also really cheap at $2,200.
Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!
Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s four-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:15PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!
Weather is not a huge issue, but this is a risky slate for cash games and I’d highly recommend sticking to GPPs and lower-cost single-entry.
The options are not great. We really can’t look to Julio Urias right now with him maxing out at 5 Ks in each of his last five starts (perhaps it’s the Bauer Effect rearing its ugly head) and Frankie Montas cannot be trusted facing a lefty-heavy Giants lineup. I’m a Yankee fan, which makes recommending Eovaldi in this spot especially tough, but the price is reasonable for a guy who has 10K potential against the Bombers and their 24.7% K rate (25.2% against RHP). Facing this lineup can be a dangerous spot for ANY pitcher, so I don’t think this slate portends well for large cash game investments, and there is a stiff wind blowing out toward the monster as well. But given what he did against the Yanks on June 4 in the Bronx (6.0 IP, 0 BB, 7 K, 1 ER and 46 FD points), he’s probably got as much upside as anyone. Adam Strangis makes mention of him as an option in the 6/26 Starting Rotation piece today, so if you need further information, that’s always a good source.
It would be great if he could somehow approach the 100-pitch mark, in which case he could easily pay off this bargain price. Lamet might have a lower floor than some of the other high-dollar options, but the upside is there at his still-discounted price and he’s coming off his first win and 7Ks. Again, I can’t stress enough how risky this entire slate is, but Lamet’s reward could slightly outweigh the downside. He should get the necessary run support for another W, and there’s an outside shot he crests the 5.0 inning mark tonight and possibly gets 6.0 in to qualify him for the QS bonus.
We’re going to have to take some chances on this slate, and rolling out the enigmatic lefty hurler at Fenway might be the key to unlocking the slate. Or, and hear me out, you can stack against the guy in a few GPP lineups to hedge your DFS approach. He’s regained some of the effectiveness his changeup and curveball once had in his early days, and using them to keep these Boston hitters off balance. His 3.62 FIP is among the lowest on the slate, we know he’s got as much upside as anyone in these four games, and the Boston projected total is pretty high, so we know he won’t be popular.
The Dodgers, Red Sox and Yankees are all viable options in the spend-up category, but let’s look a little more closely at the Padres, who are red-hot at the plate. Fernando Tatis, Jr. ($4,700) is destroying baseballs right now (4-5 with 3 HRs and 65.8 FD points last night) and I don’t see any reason to not continue using him with Manny Machado ($4,300), Jake Cronenworth ($3,300) and either Eric Hosmer ($2,700), Tommy Pham ($3,100) or even Trent Grisham ($3,000). This lineup is filled with speed and power — the biggest contributors to offensive success in DFS, so make sure you get exposure to the Friars tonight.
The Giants match up extremely well against Montas, who’s been struggling a bit lately. The top five hitters include a bevy of cheap bats who have enormous upside tonight: LaMonte Wade ($2,700), Mike Yastrzemski ($3,500), Buster Posey ($3,100) Alex Dickerson ($2,300), Brandon Crawford ($2,800). They could work in conjunction with the more expensive Dodgers or Padres, especially if you’re fading the Yankees-Red Sox.
First of all, don’t freak out. I know I recommended Montgomery, and while there’s no way I’d stack the Sox and use Monty in the SP slot, we’ve got to build lineups assuming more than one narrative today, and it’s possible the Sox can give us what we need in a stack while Montgomery gets us 30-40 FD points behind a barrage of Ks. The hitting conditions seem favorable, and while Monty is generally a ground ball pitcher over the course of his career, the fly balls he gives up tend to go pretty far. If Michael Chavis leads off he’s a great bargain option at $2,300, and while lefty vs. lefty Alex Verdugo ($2,900) doesn’t get me excited, the projected 3-7 hitters are all in play: J.D. Martinez ($4,100), Xander Bogaerts ($3,700), Rafael Devers ($3,900), Kike Hernandez ($3,300) and Hunter Renfroe ($2,700).
Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!
Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!
No weather concerns of note, so everyone should technically be “in play” from a DFS perspective.
I’m not sure how many folks will get thrown off by the stiff winds blowing out to center in San Francisco tonight, but that stadium minimizes wind impact with its design — and Buehler is still the top ace of the slate. There’s really no close second, and I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that Buehler’s ZIPS projections anticipate a lot more Ks over the next few starts. His talent level is head and shoulders better than choices B and C tonight and the run support he should get with his Dodgers facing the Giants’ Matt Wisler and some bullpen arms is enough to make him the safest option on the board.
The A’s are a road favorite against an Angels team missing Mike Trout — the anchor of their lineup and one of the main reasons to fear that team. Over the past seven days we’ve seen the Angels team K rate increase about three percentage points, and while Bassitt isn’t known as a high-strikeout pitcher, his K/9 has increased to 9.62 this season, and his walk rate is the lowest its been in his seven-year MLB career. There isn’t an EASY value on tonight’s slate, but if I had to pick a guy who could surprise and break through with moderately low ownership on a day with limited options, Bassitt is the guy.
Ray has been excellent this season, and while the minor league park the Blue Jays are hosting games in is quite the bandbox, Ray’s K is up a percentage point and a half to 28.9% this season. It’s not quite where it was during his DFS heyday in 2017 — when it was a whopping 32.8 and he posted a 1.15 WHIP and 3.72 FIP — but Ray is throwing a lot of good fastballs again, limiting hard contact this season and getting his WHIP down to an impressive 1.17 through seven starts. The Rays strike out at the fourth-highest rate among MLB teams and that’s exactly the type of thing we’re looking for on FanDuel, where efficiency matters a lot less than notching strikeouts. Adam Strangis also points out in his 5/22 Starting Rotation piece that they’re especially bad against lefties. Nathan Eovaldi ($7,200) also makes sense as an off-the-wall, high-risk contrarian play against Philadelphia. The Phillies have the second-highest team strikeout rate in baseball, but Eovaldi might end up being more popular than Ray because of the salary difference.
The Red Sox continue to mash and represent the safest stack of the 5/22 MLB DFS slate. They also boast one of the higher projected team run totals and have a 2-5 stack that rivals any in the bigs at the moment. Alex Verdugo is out today (hamstring) but Xander Bogaerts ($3,800), J.D. Martinez ($4,300) and Rafael Devers ($3,800) should all be rostered confidently. It’s an expensive stack that will probably need some value to offset that type of spending. Value options for your fourth hitter on Boston include Kike Hernandez ($3,200) — who has 2B/OF positional flexibility — Christian Vazquez ($2,500), and sluggers Bobby Dalbec ($2,400) and Hunter Renfroe ($2,200)
The Padres aren’t normally a value play as a team stack, but Eric Hosmer is just $2,700 and Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4,500) is the only real spend-up hitter we’ll encounter here. The rest of my preferred stack includes Manny Machado ($3,200) and Tommy Pham ($2,100). Pham’s price is way too low given his upside and the fact that that his offense came alive for 34.2 FanDuel points last night. Right handed Austin Nola ($2,900) is also an option, and I would prefer leadoff hitter Trent Grisham ($3,400) to Jake Cronenworth ($3,000) since the former is better vs. lefties and the latter sometimes gets a day off against southpaws anyway — but Grisham is nursing a heel injury that had him removed in the fifth inning against Seattle yesterday.
It’s difficult to say just how many innings Sandoval will pitch tonight, but the A’s are better against LHP this season and their productive core of Mark Canha $3,100), Ramon Laureano ($3,400) and Matt Chapman ($2,700) could get some early scoring off the mediocre southpaw. I’m fine adding Matt Olson ($3,400) to the mix or even take a shot on Seth Brown ($2,200), who homered a couple games ago and offers some great value.
Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!
We’ve got some live arms and potent bats in this edition of Aces and Bases focusing ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET.
There’s a couple of bad weather spots to look out for (BOS @ BAL & LAA @ TOR), both of which could offer some scoring opportunities, but we’ll give you some safer and more appealing options.
Anderson gave up four hits, two BB and just 1 ER in his 2021 debut against these same Philadelphia Phillies on April 4, striking out seven batters in just 5.0 IP. He’s an electric young pitcher who’s shown us both bat-missing dominance in his career so far (11.57 K/9 in the first 37.1 IP over 2020-21). While it’s tempting to slot in Julio Urias ($10K on FD and a solid pitcher in his own right) Anderson has the most upside on the slate and should be locked into most of your builds.
Paddack makes sense as a low-cost pivot from Anderson a slate without too many usable DFS arms, and it’s because he sports a low walk rate (5.5% for his career) and 9.46 K/9 rate over 203.2 major league IP. He gives up a few solo shots once in a while, and the 1.64 HR/9 metric is one of the more alarming ones on his resume, but strikeouts and preventing huge innings on FD are king, and that’s where he’ll give you more than any other pitcher at this price point.
There’s only one team in baseball with better offensive numbers than the Dodgers (and we’ll discuss them in a bit), but the Bashers in Blue boast a very respectable .377 team wOBA and 143 wRC+ through the first week couple weeks of the season, and they are deep – which means they can still bring the pain without a couple stud hitters. The low-scoring affair from last night is almost sure to see a turnaround tonight via the bats of Corey Seager ($4,300), Max Muncy ($3,300) and some other relatively low-cost secondary options in the lineups. With Mookie Betts day-to-day with a back injury and Cody Bellinger on the IL, we can take advantage of whatever mispriced bats slot into their usual spots and roll with the 1-4 hitters.
Using the Padres might be the contrarian route when most of the masses turn to the discounted Dodgers and value-packed Reds. I prefer the 1-4 hitters here, with three lefty bats against a right-hander who’s career .357 wOBA versus LHBs gives us something to attack with Trent Grisham ($2,500), Jake Cronenworth ($3,100) and Eric Hosmer ($3,700). Mix in No. 3 hitter Manny Machado ($3,400) at 3B or drift down to Wil Myers ($3,300) and you’ve got a slew of studs without breaking the bank.
Virtually any four-man combination of the Reds 1-6 hitters today could yield massive returns against RHP Riley Smith. Righty-lefty doesn’t matter all that much with this bunch, as their best two hitters have been right-handed Nick Castellanos ($4,200) and lefty slugging Tyler Naquin ($3,400). We can expect a positive progression from Eugenio Suarez ($3,100), who always has double-dong potential, and veteran Joey Votto ($2,600), who comes at a massive discount in contrast to his career production. Rounding out the stacking possibilities are Mashin’ Mike Moustakas ($3,300), Jesse Winker ($3,000 – who normally leads off against RHP but is day-to-day with a calf injury) and the red-hot Jonathan India ($3,200), who had 10 hits in his fist 21 ABs of 2021.
Good luck!
We’ve got a 13-game main slate for 9/24 DFS and while a playoff picture is finally emerging and the season is winding down, there are still some high-upside hitters and stacks to get you prepped to win some green!
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The Red Sox shouldn’t have problems getting to either Vólquez, who’s having a last hurrah in the big leagues before retiring, or Jurado, who has a 5.73 ERA this season and has trouble getting Ks. You may want to skip Betts, who’s been getting rest since coming back from a foot injury, but grab shares of J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and some of the more inexpensive bats (Mitch Moreland, Brock Holt, Jackie Bradley) that should help you make salary. I think the 2-5 plus Christian Vazquez (the projected 7 hitter) might be my favorite stack among the Red Sox bats.
The Astros are always worth looking to considering their 121 team wRC+ and .349 wOBA, but they face a couple mashable pitchers and you don’t have to worry about splits since they rake just about everybody. Get some shares of the red-hot George Springer (three HRs on Sunday) as well as Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yuri Gurriel and Yordan Alvarez. they have the highest implied total among the teams with set lines so far.
These teams have been bashing each other’s brains in, and while I prefer the Blue Jays side of this offensive tilt, the entire game stack is in play. It’s been a GPP winner recently, so I have no qualms about rolling out the usual suspects again: Cavan Biggio, Randal Grichuk, Rowdy Tellez, and value bats like Brandon Drury and Teoscar Hernandez – especially if Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. (illness) sits for a second consecutive day.
Chicago Cubs at Mitch Keller – The Cubs are nearly out of the playoff picture thanks to the Cardinals, but for 9/24 DFS you shouldn’t consider them officially dead yet – and they’re a bunch who can still pile on the runs. The Pirates home park isn’t the best venue for stacks, so ownership should be relatively low.
Atlanta Braves at Danny Duffy – Plenty of bats to like for this potent Braves lineup facing the lefty in Kansas City, you’ll just have to leave out a couple since they’re all so good. I may be fading the Yankees in Tampa, but I’m not worried about the Braves against a hittable pitcher in the heartland.
Cleveland Indians vs. Hector Santiago – The Indians aren’t as consistent as the Braves offensively, but they have a bunch of lefty mashers with a special affinity for Santiago. The implied run total is over 5.5, which means you should have shares of the 1-5 bats along with some exposure to Franmil Reyes and Jordan Luplow. I might take a wait-and-see approach with Jose Ramirez, who’s set to be activated from the IL.
Oakland Athletics at Dillon Peters – The A’s aren’t as good against LHPs (.305 team wOBA), but it’s a viable contrarian stack to consider for 9/24 DFS. The implied total is also over 5.5 runs and seems a bit high — so tread lightly with this bunch.
Vazquez got a day off yesterday against the Rays, but he should beback in the lineup Tuesday in Texas. He’s got 3 homers in his last seven gamesand his overall numbers in 2019 have been impressive: .273/.316/.472 with 22 HRs.Digging a little deeper, we find a .232 road ISO, with 14 of his dingers comingaway from Fenway Park.
Santana is having a career year, and I’m plugging him into most ofmy GPP builds against Hector Santiago. Hisseason slash sits at .288/.403/.529 with a 139 wRC+ and he’s destroying LHPsthis season (1.015 OPS, 162 wRC+ and .421 wOBA). There are many ways to go at1B on this slate, but Santana is my bet for a monster game.
Did you expect me to play some other than Biggio? He hit anotherbomb last night and has ben raking every time I use him in GPPs – from lastTuesday’s cycle and Thursday’s home run to helping me spike some decent cashesin last night’s Rally contests on FanDuel. He’s way too cheap on that site andhis price tag on DK should keep him from being chalk – especially with so manyhigh-priced arms.
It’s been a disappointing season for Machado, but he’d like to endit with some standout performances against his old team, the Dodgers. I lovethe matchup against LHP Rich Hill since Machado – with some really pronouncedsplits this season – hits .314/.401/.683 against southpaws. The price is rightfor Machado, and using him as a one-off or with OF Hunter Renfroe ($4,000 onDK, $3,100 on FD) – who’s another viable Padres power hitter with a 132 wRC+against LHPs – makes a lot of sense if you’re trying to find some value and buildingmultiple lineups.
Seger is finally hitting his groove as we near the postseason, andnow is a great time to plug him in at SS in the 9/24 DFS main slate. He’s got a123 wRC+ against RHPs and has a .381 WOBA and .314 ISO sine the start of September.There’s no time like the present, and presently, Corey Seager is raking.
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Cody might just ring that bell again on Tuesday night against “BadRonald” Bolanos, who’s given up three homers in 14 innings. Bellinger’s 166wRC+ and ridiculous .314/.414/.641 slash line vs. RHPs means he’ll be in all thelineups I can afford him in, regardless of the venue and the fact he’s on the road(149 wRC+ in away games this season).
He makes for a fine one-off if you’re not using the Braves stack, and he’s putting up obscene numbers against both LHPs and RHPs. Another interesting stat about Acuna is that he’s slashing a robust .281/.370/.510 with a 125 wRC+ at home and .279/.361/.527 with a 128 wRC+on the road. There’s not a day that I don’t consider him, even against the league’s top pitchers and regardless of the lofty price tag.
Hays had a monster night in Toronto on Monday and he’s once again in a good spot facing a lefty. The 24-year-old slugger is slashing .302/.362/.535 in the 15 games he’s played in the majors, and he’s still very inexpensive on both sites. If he’s in the Orioles lineup on Tuesday, I’ll be grabbing shares.
C: Wilson Contreras ($4,400 DK, $3,200 FD), Sean Murphy ($4,000DK, $3,100 FD)
1B: Anthony Rizzo ($4,900 DK, $4,100 FD), Trey Mancini ($4,700 DK,$3,900 FD)
2B: Jose Altuve ($4,700 DK, $4,200 FD), DJ LeMahieu ($5,000 DK)($4,200 FD – 3B)
3B: Gio Urshela ($4,100 DK, $3,000 FD) Vladimir Guerrero Jr, ($3,800DK, $3,200 FD)
SS: Francisco Lindor ($5,400 DK, $4,300 FD), Nico Hoerner ($3,700DK, $3,000 FD)
OF: Anthony Santander ($4,000 DK, $3,400 FD), Brett Gardner ($4,500DK, $3,500 FD), Randal Grichuk ($4,100 DK, $3,000 FD), Ramon Laureano GPP($3,100 FD), Austin Riley GPP ($2,200 FD), Adam Duvall GPP ($2,400 FD)
I was excited to get you all some dingers from three out of my featured eight hitters for the 15-game Tuesday slate, but we’re aiming even higher for my second piece here at Win Daily Sports. Were building GPP stacks for the Thursday 8/29 DFS main slate, and we’ve only got six games on tap. While there’s an obvious game we want to use some hitters from, I’ll try to identify a few value plays so we can throw a potent stack or two in our GPP builds so your bankroll gets a boost.
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8/29DFS Hitting Catcher
JorgeAlfaro, MIA vs. CIN
DK($3,800), FD ($2,800)
We can only hope that Alfaro’s day off on Wednesday hasn’t cooled off one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the past week. Not only is he in the midst of a five-game hitting streak, slashing .524/.424/1.000 with three homers and four RBI during that stretch, but he’s got an excellent matchup in his home park, where he sports a 117 RC+ and .339 wOBA. You can use whomever is catching for the Pirates (Elias Diaz $3,400 DK or Jacob Stallings $3,300 DK) for a few bucks cheaper, but Alfaro should still be low-owned and has solid upside in this 8/29 DFS spot.
8/29DFS Hitting First Baseman
JoshBell, PIT at COL
DK($5,400), FD ($4,300)
Bell’s price is steep, and I wouldn’t dare belittlethe benefit of Clay Bellinger (who’s also OF-eligible on DK) here, but theallure of Coors is what’s drawing me in – along with a .426 xwOBA againstright-handers. The eminently hittable Chi Chi Gonzalez is on the bump for theRockies, and while he’s had more success at home than on the road, it’s a smallenough sample that I feel a market correction and stackable situation buildingfor the Pirates mashers. There’s plenty of 1B/2B/OF combos available if you mixin Bell with the Dodgers bats, so explore them.
8/29DFS Hitting Second Baseman
StarlinCastro, MIA vs. CIN
DK($3,600), FD (3B – $2,400)
On Tuesday we scored bigwith Jason Kipnis in a pitcher’s park here, and I’m looking for hidden valueagain with Castro, a classic variance-positive hero whose price never seems toelevate despite his wide range of DFS outcomes. He had a hand in winning me aGPP and $20K in the past, and I usually fare well by using him at home facingleft-handers. With Alex Wood on the mound and our fearless veteran infielder checkingin with a .405 xwOBA against LHP the past two seasons, I feel comfortable notingan additional BvP tidbit: Castro is 5-for-10 career off Wood. He’s cheap onFanDuel too, but he’s a 3B on that site so you can look to Adam Frazier ($3,600FD) at 2B there.
8/29DFS Hitting Shortstop
TrevorStory, COL vs. PIT
DK($5,600), FD ($4,300)
Story is the top shortstop on the slate, much like Xander Bogaerts was the top SS on Tuesday (ding-dong!!). You can save a few bucks by taking Kevin Newman ($5,100 DK, $4,000 FD) but that seems counterproductive when there’s enough value elsewhere to use the best. Sure, Story is better facing southpaws, but he’s carrying a .446 xwOBA against righties and a .434 wOBA at home over the past two seasons. He’s facing a good contact manager in Trevor Williams (87.5 aEV), but a lot of that goes out the door in Coors, where sinkers and sliders go to die. If you absolutely, positively can’t fit him, Manny Machado (3B/SS $4,100 DK) makes for a bargain upside option.
8/29DFS Hitting Third Baseman
ColinMoran, PIT at COL
DK($4,800), FD ($3,700)
Moran’s aggressive approach could fare well in this hitting environment, and he’s not necessarily going to attract too much ownership with a slew of other priority plays in Pirates stacks. The .405 xwOBA vs. LHPs is an appealing metric, and while he doesn’t have the raw power of some of the other 3B on the slate, including counterpart Nolan Arenado (.309 home ISO), he’s likely to be batting fifth after Bell and looks like the finishing touch on a full 1-5 DK stack. Again, Machado is an option on DK and on FD, where he’s just $3,500.
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8/29DFS Hitting Outfielder
JocPederson, LAD at ARI
DK($4,400), FD ($3,300)
Joc went deep a couple nights ago, and while I mentioned him as an option in my Jackie Bradley Jr. writeup, I didn’t dedicate a unique space for this inconsistent-but-exciting millennial masher. I love the matchup against Merrill Kelly (.413 xwOBA vs. LHBs), who’s shown marginal effectiveness but yields a lot of long balls. Pederson is leading off once again and that’s always nice on a team with an implied total over five runs.
8/29DFS Hitting Outfielder
Aristides Aquino, CIN at MIA
DK($5,000), FD ($4,100)
I know – I’m clicking onway too hitters for a game in a pitcher’s park. But there’s not a ballyard thatcan hold the meteoric Aquino (.426 xwOBA vs. RHP) and he’s facing righty RobertDugger, who go rocked in his only Major League appearance on Aug. 5 in CitiField. We’d prefer Aquino face a lefty (.668 xwOBA against southpaws in 19 AB),but he might do that in the later innings after the Reds dispatch Dugger. Thereare loads of cheaper hitting options in friendlier confines, but I’m low-keyliking this Reds team facing the doe-eyed Dugger.
8/29DFS Hitting Outfielder
J.D. Davis, NYM vs. CHC
DK ($4,200), FD ($2,900)
Davis is batting thirdand gets a left-hander in Jon Lester, and that’s ideal considering his .476xwOBA and .359 OBP against southpaws. He’s also got a .308 ISO at home thisseason and could be entering another hot patch (3-for-8, HR in his last twogames). He’ll save you some salary and makes for a fine one-off or part of amini-Mets stack that includes Pete Alonso ($5,200 DK, $4,100 FD) and MichaelConforto ($4,500 DK, $3,300 FD).
8/29DFS Hitting Stacks
8/29 DFS Hitting Stack of the Day: Pittsburgh Pirates: No surprise here. The trick will be finding the right combination of Newman, Starling Marte ($5,800 DK, $4,200 FD), Bryan Reynolds ($5,300 DK, $4,100 FD), Moran, Jose Osuna (1B/3B $5,000 DK, $3,200 FD), Adam Frazier ($4,800 DK, $3,600 FD) and the starting catcher.
8/29 DFS Hitting Stack Runner-Up: Colorado Rockies: It’s possible to fit in a nearly full game stack in Coors without compromising pitching if we take advantage of the SD-SF game, so I’m bullish on using as many hitters from this 14-run total as we can. Charlie Blackmon ($5.700 DK, $4,400 FD), Ryan McMahon ($4,700 DK, $3,500 FD), Story and Arenado ($5,700 DK, $4,700 FD) are my preferred four in a matchup against Williams and his 5.22 xFIP. If Williams scares you that much, you can lean more heavily toward Dodgers bats or take a gander at the group below.
8/29 DFS Hitting Stack to Consider: Cincinnati Reds: Despite the tasty matchup against a rookie hurler, I don’t expect too many Reds stacks. Let’s look at the projected top five hitters here, including Aquino, Josh VanMeter ($4,200 DK, $3,000 FD), Joey Votto ($3,900 DK, $2,800 FD), Eugenio Suarez ($4,500 DK, $4,000 FD) and Freddy Galvis (SS $4,100 DK, 2B $2,700 FD). Nick Senzel ($4,400 DK, $3,200 FD) could be sneaky as well, since he’s solid (.359 xwOBA) vs. RHP.
A full Tuesday 8/13 DFS hitting slate with a bunch of weather issues, including games in NYY, PHI and oh boy….WSH.
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A lefty (John Means) against Sanchez…..sign me up! The slugging catcher is posting a .360 wOBA, .291 ISO and .860 OPS against left-handers for his career.
Goldschmidt just might be the streakiest hitter in the Majors. And we catch him on a tear with hits in three consecutive games, including multiple hits in two of them, with a homer and four each of RBI and runs. Glenn Sparkman, the opposing starting pitcher, has proved to be a below-average MLB pitcher.
Odor had eight homers and 15 RBI over his previous 15 games. That home run potential is what we are chasing here and he came through for us last night. Do not be scared of the left on left matchup, as the Blue Jays starter Thomas Pannone, will likely have a short outing.
Yankees. Get as many Yankees as you can tonight. Though Gio disappointed a bit out of the 3-hole last night, you have to love Aaron Boone’s confidence in him to bat him there. And maybe disappointed is too strong of a word, as he recorded three hits and scored twice.
I am unashamedly stealing from John Sterling here. You know when I as a Red Sox fan do that, then I must really like the Yankees tonight. Anyway, as the calendar approaches, Gleyber Day and the first weekend of September, you can count on Torres. Sort of like how you can count on a good Gleyber to be there for you. I am sorry, I apologize. I really do. USE THE YANKEE BATS TONIGHT!
The price is just too low going up against a struggling lefty.
Another lefty on lefty matchup to not be scared of tonight in Toronto. This guy is starting to hit the ball hard and the Jays will have to use their bullpen a bunch tonight.
This is my spend-up outfielder for tonight. He disappointed last night with only five DK fantasy points, what are the chances he does that again tonight?
We had a limited seven-game slate on Monday July 29. All points and price values for the 7/30 MLB DFS Winners and Losers are based off DraftKings.
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Carson Kelly had a great game against the Miami Marlins last night. He went 2-for-3 with a walk, home run, RBI and two runs. He was also listed as the catcher to use on the DFS Hitter Picks for this slate. Kelly is now at 13 HRs and 36 RBI on the season. Fade on him on today’s slate as he won’t provide nearly as much value.
Carson Kelly has been one of the best eight-hole hitters in the league, which is extremely important with the pitcher usually being on deck. In his last 30 games, Kelly is posting a .287 batting average and a .388 OBP. The Arizona Diamondbacks travel to New York to play the Yankees for a two-game set beginning today. Expect Kelly to be slowed down by a motivated Yankees team that was embarrassed the past week.
Manny Machado is one of the best hitters in baseball and proved it once again last night against his former team, the Baltimore Orioles. He went 3-for-4 with two runs and a triple on the day. If you checked out the DFS Hitter Picks before selecting your team, you would have had Machado’s production as well. Make sure to ride Machado’s bat in today’s afternoon action.
Manny Machado seems to finally being adjusting to National League pitching and San Diego in general. In his last fifteen games, he is batting .300 with a .567 slugging, with phenomenal defense at the hot corner. Machado will continue the series against his former team today and expect him to have similar results.
Last night was not a good one for Kenta Maeda against the Colorado Rockies as he went four innings and allowed six runs (five earned) on seven hits with two walks and five strikeouts. He now is 7-8 on the season after this loss. Fade him in his next start until he figures out what is wrong.
Kenta Maeda has struggled as of late. In his last seven games (six starts) he is 0-4 with a 4.97 ERA in 29 innings pitched. Luckily for him and the Dodgers, they have a big enough space to let the problem essentially correct itself. Maeda’s next outing is scheduled for Saturday against the San Diego Padres. Let Maeda fix himself before using salary space on him.
Max Muncy did not live up to the price tag on him for last night’s ballgame against the Colorado Rockies, as he went 1-for-4 with a single. Playing in Coors Field, where the ball just flies and inflates numbers, Muncy doesn’t really have an excuse. All he needed to do was get some solid wood on the ball and put it in the air. Look for Muncy to bounce back today.
Muncy has been less productive than usual lately, but has very good numbers away from Dodger Stadium this year. Only nine of his 26 long balls were hit in Los Angeles. The Dodgers continue their series in Colorado against the Rockies and expect Muncy to put a drive into one during today’s game.
Charlie Blackmon missed yesterday’s game due to back tightness that was caused from a postgme workout on Sunday.
The Washington Nationals placed Max Scherzer on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to July 26, with a mild rhomboid strain.
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With only seven games on this small Monday slate, we’re going to take a different approach with this article. It would be easy to sit here and write about all of the players in the Dodgers-Rockies game in Coors Field but that’s too easy. I’m going to focus on all value plays and try to help you fill out a lineup with those Coors Field bats. It’s going to be imperative to stack that game in a seven-game slate, so hopefully, some of these cheap guys will make that build much easier. Let’s get into our 7/29 DFS hitter picks!
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Carson Kelly, ARI at MIA
DK ($3,700) FD ($2,700)
I really don’t like to use anyone against Caleb Smith but we need to get creative on a seven-game slate. What makes Kelly such an attractive option here is that he absolutely destroys left-handed pitching. In fact, Kelly has a .475 OBP, .808 SLG and 1.283 OPS against southpaws so far this season. Kelly has also been a much better away from home, as his 1.021 road OPS is more than 300 points higher than his home OPS.
Justin Smoak, TOR at KC
DK ($3,900) FD ($3,200)
Smoak has been one of the unluckiest hitters in the league this season but the luck is finally turning around. Over his last 11 games, Smoak has four homers, seven RBI and 10 walks en route to a .435 OBP and 1.040 OPS. That’s the guy that we’ve been expecting all season, as his .385 xwOBA and .511 xSLG is way off his .339 wOBA and .423 SLG. That means positive regression is right around the corner and this recent hot stretch is hopefully the start of it. Getting to face Brad Keller should only help, with the Kansas City righty pitching to a 4.87 xFIP. It also puts Smoak on the left side and he has a .365 OBP and .857 OPS against righties despite the poor luck.
Brian Dozier, WSH vs. ATL
DK ($3,400) FD ($2,400)
Dozier really deserves more credit and these sites need to raise his price. Over his last 43 games. Dozier has a .380 OBP and .890 OPS. That’s the former All-Star that we loved and this price doesn’t quite match up with that production. Getting to face a lefty is what really makes him hard to fade, with Dozier generating a .418 OBP, .625 SLG and 1.043 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor this season. Not to mention, Dozier went 2-for-3 on Sunday, with a double, homer and two runs scored.
Manny Machado, SD vs. BAL
DK ($4,600) FD ($4,000)
Machado should have a higher price and he’s easily one of the best 7/29 DFS hitter options on the board. This perennial All-Star is one of the hottest hitters in the game right now and he should be $500 more on each site. In fact, Machado is hitting .329 over his last 35 games while providing a .685 SLG and 1.058 OPS in that span. That’s obviously stupendous production and he should continue that success against a pitching staff that has a 5.53 team ERA. It’s unclear exactly who he’ll face but just the fact that this horrible pitching staff has to call someone up is a very promising sign. I also believe that Franmil Reyes and Hunter Renfroe are too cheap on both sites and these three make for a beautiful stack against this putrid pitching staff.
Jonathan Villar, BAL at SD
DK ($4,000) FD ($3,100)
Villar is a personal favorite of mine and I really don’t like how these sites continue to disrespect him with these price tags. Any leadoff hitter with 20-30 potential should be much higher, especially when they’re hot. Not only does Villar have multi-hit games in four-straight, he’s also collected nine runs, two homers and five steals in that span. That equates to nearly 35 FanDuel points per game, which is downright absurd. Getting to hit on the left side is a huge bonus too, with Villar accruing a .350 OBP against right-handers this season while swiping 18 of his 22 stolen bases against them. Dinelson Lamet is talented but his 5.00 ERA and 1.39 WHIP make him a pitcher we can exploit.
Shohei Ohtani, LAA vs. DET
DK ($5,200) FD ($4,200)
Ohtani has done nothing but rake against right-handers since being signed from Japan and he’s my favorite 7/29 DFS hitter. In fact, Ohtani has a .307 AVG, .373 OBP, .613 SLG and .987 OPS against righties since being signed. He also has 15 of his 18 career steals against them and it’s crystal clear just how much more comfortable he is from the left side. This happens to be a pitcher we definitely want to stack against too, with Jordan Zimmermann pitching to a 7.57 ERA and 1.71 WHIP en route to a disastrous 0-8 record.
Corey Dickerson, PIT at CIN
DK ($4,200) FD ($2,800)
Dickerson is in the same boat as Ohtani and he too loves to mash righties. So far this season, Dickerson has a .376 OBP, .538 SLG and .915 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. That’s pretty close to the guy that we’ve seen throughout his career, with Dickerson attaining a .239 ISO, .361 wOBA and .861 OPS against right-handers for his career. That’s all you can ask for from a guy priced so cheaply who gets to hit in in a small park like Great American Ballpark should only help. If Dickerson misses this game because of a nagging groin, pivot to Jesse Winker atop the Reds lineup in the same price range.
Josh VanMeter, CIN vs. PIT
DK ($3,700) FD ($2,700)
VanMeter has been incredible the last few games and it’s time for these DFS sites to take notice. Four homers in his last eight games tells you everything you need to know, with VanMeter providing a .520 AVG, 1.120 SLG and 1.650 OPS over his last nine games. Those are Barry Bonds-like numbers, as he’s carried over his ridiculous numbers from the minors. At Triple-A this season, VanMeter hit .348 while generating a .669 SLG and 1.098 OPS. Getting the platoon advantage against Jordan Lyles is simply the icing on the cake, with the Pirates righty pitching to a 9.57 ERA and 1.99 WHIP over his last nine starts.
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