Tag:

LeBron James

Wild WrestleMania XL Props: Brass Knuckles, Athletes, and Heel Turns

WrestleMania is the Super Bowl of pro wrestling. The 40th edition of WWE’s marquee event goes down this weekend over a two-day stretch that will undoubtedly witness mania and mayhem. If you want to have some fun with friends various outlets have unveiled a Super Bowl-sized menu of betting odds for the Wrestlemania madness.

Not only are their match odds, but there are dozens of prop bets including appearances, interferences, betrayals and brass knuckles. WrestleMania 40 odds are subject to change and will be updated in real-time……..

Will Logan Paul have brass knuckles?

Yes -500 | No +300

Will CM Punk appear in ring or attack someone?

Yes -250 | No +170

Will either of the Fatu Brothers appear in ring or attack someone?

Yes +200 | No -150

Will Jason Kelce appear in ring or attack someone?

Yes -300 | No +200

Will John Cena appear in ring or attack someone?

Yes +100 | No -140

Will Pat McAfee appear in the ring or attack someone?

Yes -120 | No -120

Will Sylvester Stallone appear in ring or attack someone?

Yes -175 | No +135

Will Stone Cold appear in ring or attack someone?

Yes -200 | No +150

Will the Undertaker appear in ring or attack someone?

Yes +300 | No -500

Total interferences in Cody Rhodes vs. Roman Reigns match —- Over/Under 5.5

Total number of Chops by Gunther —- Over/Under 29½

Will Chad Gable turn on Sami Zayn?

Yes +175 | No -250

Andre the Giant Battle Royale Smackdown Champion
“Big Bronson” Reed		+150
Bron Breaker		+200
Brutus Creed		+200
Chad Gable		+400
Otis		+400
Omos		+500
Andrade		+800
Ricochet		+1000
Ivar		+1200
Cameron Grimes		+1600
Shinsuke Nakamura		+1600
Julius Creed		+1800
Veer Mahan		+2000
JD McDonagh		+2500
Apollo Crews		+4000
Ashante “Thee” Adonis		+4000
Cedric Alexander		+4000
Elton Prince		+4000
Kitt Wilson		+4000
Akira Tazowa		+5000

Tag Team Match Champion
Roman Reigns & The Rock		-1000
Cody Rhodes & Seth Rollins		+550

Tag Team Match Champion
Dominik Mysterio & Santos Escobar		-200
Rey Mysterio & Dragon Lee		+150

Women’s World Championship Match
Rhea Ripley (c)		-500
Becky Lynch		+300

Women’s Championship Match
Bayley		-700
Iyo Sky (c)		+400

Singles Match Champion
LA Knight		-600
AJ Styles		+350

Six-Woman Tag Team Match Champions
Bianca Belair, Jade Cargill, & Naomi		-2000
Dakota Kai, Asuka, & Kairi Sane		+700

United States Match Champion
Logan Paul (c)		-450
Kevin Owens		+400
Randy Orton		+425

Six-Man Tag Team Match Champions
Bobby Lashley & The Street Profits		-200
The Final Testament		+150

Singles Match Champion
Jey Uso		-225
Jimmy Uso		+160

Intercontinental Championship Match
Gunther c)		-160
Sami Zayn		+120

Unified Tag Team Championship
Awesome Truth		+110
#DIY		+250
A-Town-Down Under		+400
The Judgment Day (c)		+400
The New Day		+700
New Catch Republic		+800

WWE World Heavyweight Championship
Drew McIntyre		-500
Seth Rollins (c)		+300

Undisputed WWE Universal Championship Match
Cody Rhodes		-425
Roman Reigns (c)		+265

NXT Championship Match
Ilja Dragunov (c)		-500
Tony D’Angelo		+300

NXT Women’s Championship Match
Roxanne Perez		-900
Lyra Valkyria (c)		+500

NXT Stand & Deliver – Singles
Trick Williams		-600
Carmelo Hayes		+350

NXT Stand & Deliver – Singles
Shawn Spears		-350
Joe Gacy		+225

NXT Stand & Deliver – Tag Team
Thea Hail, Fallon Henley, and Kelani Jordan		-200
Jacy Jayne, Kiana James, and Izzi Dame		+150

NXT Stand & Deliver – Tag Team
Baron Corbin and Bron Breakker		-200
Axiom and Nathan Frazer		+150

NXT Stand & Deliver – Triple Threat Match
Oba Femi		-375
Dijak		+325
Josh Briggs		+325

Let’s have some fun with this. Drop into our discord and us know who your favorite picks are for the event!

SOURCE The Odds PR & www.rizeandreactmedia.com

1 year ago 0 comments

Sports Betting Announcements

Bronny James Transfer Odds: Where’s the Value?

Tony Cutillo 1 year ago

written by Tony Cutillo

Bronny James might be on the move this summer. where will he go? Last night, LeBron James said there will be “tough decisions to make” during the offseason regarding his son’s collegiate basketball future. Reports were rampant all night that Bronny will enter the transfer portal and play for a school other than USC next season.

SportsBetting.ag set odds on where Junior might end up, and there are 18 teams on the board. Bronny James transfer portal odds are subject to change and will be updated in real-time as time moves on. As it changes, where does the value come in?

Key Odds: Bronny James Next Team

Ohio State 5/2 (+250)

Duquesne 3/1

Oregon 7/2 (+350)

SMU 4/1

San Diego State 6/1

Duke 7/1

Akron 8/1

North Carolina 10/1

UCLA 10/1

Michigan State 12/1

Dayton 12/1

Miami 15/1

Arizona 18/1

Gonzaga 18/1

Pepperdine 20/1

St. John’s 25/1

Kansas 30/1

Kentucky 33/1

Will Bronny James be selected in 2024 NBA Draft?

Yes 5/1

It sure seems like a lock for Bronny to land in the NBA. However, the odds are he lands with King James will be a much bigger betting wager and payout. Keep it locked in here for all the updates…………

SOURCE The Odds PR & www.rizeandreactmedia.com

1 year ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Friday, February 26

Brian Tulloch 4 years ago

written by Brian Tulloch

Welcome to the Friday NBA DFS edition of Picks and Pivots where we break down the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays & slate strategy for this nine-game NBA slate!

Looking to take your game to the next level? Lock in our reduced Gold Membership deal now, getting THREE MONTHS of all sports access for just $79.99 using promo code “Winning” – and let’s get to some green!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

Opening up this nine-game NBA DFS slate on Friday night and as usual, we are met with some injury news that could and will open up the value that becomes a critical building block for our lineups. Last night, on a slate without much value – as Ghost preached “just wait” – and then we got $3K Boban news right before lock that nearly 50% of the field jumped on in GPP’s.

We say it all the time here – value dictates builds – and so tonight we need to watch the status of guys like Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Cody Zeller.

If Bam were to sit, we have a $3K Precious Achiuwa staring at us while Zeller sitting would mean we get all the Bismack Biyombo ($3.3K) we can handle. Now tack on that we already know Al Horford if OUT and that means we can go back to the usual Isiah Roby ($4.9K) value. Plug those 3 potential value plays and you have nearly $8K per player for the rest of your build – Stars and Scrubs here we come!

Building a Core

If we are going to have a path to Stars and Scrubs in our NBA DFS builds tonight, then the question becomes which stars we anchor to.

It is hard not to start any and all-star discussions tonight with the late-night hammer of Lakers-Blazers and the 1v1 National TV match-up between LeBron James ($10.7K) and Damian Lillard ($10.1K). You are getting two stars without their secondary stars in AD and CJ, allowing them to sit among the top 5 in usage and FGA/game over the last 5 games and it is that kind of volume that leads to DFS ceiling.

The third star tonight I have right alongside this duo is Steph Curry ($9.7K) who essentially has all the same check marks – solo star, top 5 usage and FGA per game etc. etc. The big difference for me tonight is the match-up against the Hornets as this is a game that features two teams in the top 5 in pace over the last 10 games and projects to be the fastest pace spot on the slate.

During that stretch, the Hornets are giving up the 2nd most 3’s per game at 16.2 and allowing the second-highest 3P% rate at nearly 42%. Not sure if you have heard – this Curry guy is half decent at 3’s. Over the last 10 games, no player in the league is shooting more 3’s (13.4 to be exact) than Curry and now you take that volume PLUS pace PLUS poor opposing perimeter defense. Oh, and he is under $10K on DraftKings. Lock city.

Depending on the value we get, the question after the “Big 3” is if we can afford a 4th star. Tonight, much like Wednesday, I think we have a 4th star that is simply not priced like one – going right back to a Win Daily favorite in Mason Plumlee ($6.5K).

No team in the NBA over the last 10 games is giving up a higher FG% than the Kings at a whopping 51% and while you would think that kinda efficiency would lead to fewer rebounds, the Kings somehow also rank among the bottom 10 in rebounds allowed per game. Enter PlumDawg – fresh off a near triple-double who has gone for 6.5x value at this price point in 4 of his last 7 games. So we get an under-priced stud, in strong recent form against a defense that is playing amongst the league’s worst. Cool, I am in.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

The value will dictate this slate and exactly HOW we build but there is a clear path to Stars and Scrubs early on.

We can lock in a core of stars anchored around LeBron, Dame and Curry, all while grabbing a mid-range ceiling play like PlumDawg and it leaves us with roughly $3.3K per player for the last four in. Welcome to where injury news can open this slate right up with punts like Precious and Bismack as mentioned earlier and you see the core develop quickly.

Tonight, it is going to be once again about being patient and waiting on value as we have a path to multiple $3K punts in the starting unit and that elite value opens up a night we can anchor to three of the best stars in the NBA and enjoy as LeBron, Dame and Chef Curry carry us across the cash line!

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Thursday, February 18

Gary Gustafson 4 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

Welcome to a Thursday NBA DFS edition of Picks and Pivots where we get a short three-game slate that packs a whole lot of star power across FanDuel and DraftKings!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

On three game NBA DFS slates like we have tonight, you know I am a big believer in taking a stand and building around games versus specific players. As a GPP player, these are the kind of nights where you plant your flag – go all in on the game you like and in parallel, root hard against the games you faded!

When you look at this slate at a macro level, the two games that stand out are the Raptors/Bucks and Nets/Lakers and my guess is Miami/Sacramento becomes the boring one-off value game to fill out rosters.

Rather than simply list out plays, what I want to do today is a walk through a game stack focused GPP build on these types of games and how you can think through attacking it.

As Adam mentioned in his Core 4 today – ownership will be interesting to watch today and frankly, could be a key determining factor on where you plant your flag. The Nets/Lakers game has the star power that could draw ownership but I do think if Kyle Lowry ends up ruled out, it pushes more ownership towards a Raptors/Bucks stack that now becomes more balanced and easier to stack.

Nets and Lakers Game Stack

Let’s not pretend like Picks and Pivots was going to start anywhere else. In fact, during our slate preview discussions with Adam and Ghost, they joked – well we know what 2Lock is going to write so let’s try and write up something different. They know me – they get me.

UPDATE – Normally I do not come back and update these articles because news is so fluid in NBA but as of 3PM EST – I noticed something I thought was worth pointing out.

The Nets/Lakers total has dropped 7 POINTS today which is a massive in day movement without any public news.

Guys – be super careful with this game. If we do not have news before lock, understand your only pivots will be to the Kings and Heat and hence, everyone will pivot the same place at the same time (assuming we even get it before those games start). Just keep this in mind.

https://twitter.com/2lockSports/status/1362488172521926658

There is no secret here – we know the Nets play at a breakneck pace and they do so with defense being a total afterthought. There is a reason this game has the highest total on the slate and with the injury news the way it has fallen – stacking this became a matter of when versus how.

No Anthony Davis and no Kevin Durant make the path super simple – LeBron James ($10.2K) ran back with James Harden ($10.6K) and Kyrie Irving ($8.9K).

That is it – that’s the lineup. You want this game stack, you just locked in about 50% of the shot attempts in this game from this trio and if this game goes off, well you just found the guys who are going to be the reason.

The pricing is soft enough, primarily Kyrie’s price, that you can stack all 3 and you still have $4K per player for the rest of your build. So the question then becomes where else do you go?

On the Nets side of this game, as weird as it sounds, the status of Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot is huge because it will really open up those fringe minutes for Brooklyn, which is where most of the value is. Bruce Brown ($4.1K) is likely going to draw the LeBron assignment and I think for that reason, he has the clear path to minutes at a cheap price point for Brooklyn.

The other Brooklyn player I think has some sneaky ceiling here is Jeff Green ($5.2K) – another player I can see getting significant run in a game that plays small at times and will be key in defending his old pal LeBron.

When Green was on the Celtics, he was routinely tasked with the LeBron Miami Heat assignments and while that is pushing a decade ago – we even saw 2 years ago in Washington where Green got the same assignment against an AD-less Lakers team.

The Lakers are a solid defensive team but they do struggle recently defending the three, ranking in the bottom 10 in 3P% and with so much focus on Kyrie/Harden – guys like Brown/Green can spot up and know down uncontested three balls.

Much of the decision here comes down to price – I like both plays in a game stack but that $1K savings on Brown over Green may be a deciding factor when all is said and done on a slate where every dollar counts!

The Lakers side of this game is where I think you really anchor to the value with AD sidelined. The starting unit here has a ton of value – specifically with Marc Gasol ($4K) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($3.3K).

The Lakers played a really condensed rotation last game with AD out, running Gasol and KCP 30+ minutes. As simple as it sounds – if you play 30 minutes against the Nets matador defense, you best believe you are in the player pool.

For Gasol, if you are a Center, playing 30 minutes against Brooklyn? Well, you are about to find your ceiling game and a DFS price increase. Did you guys NOT see what Hassan Whiteside just did to this Nets interior? Gasol at 4K and 30 minutes is just silly value and an ideal stacking piece or even a one-off value if you need it.

If you are KCP – this is the kind of game he thrives in as Brooklyn is one of the most turnover-prone teams in the NBA, giving up over 8 steals per game to opponents over the last 10 games. KCP played 30 minutes last game without AD, put up double-digit shot attempts, and remains $300 over the minimum on DK – and oh yeah, it is his birthday today. So, hello narrative season!

The one “spend-up” I want alongside LeBron today is Dennis Schroder ($5.2K). Schroder is going to be the primary secondary scorer now and if you look at the game flow against OKC what you notice is his staggered run with LeBron.

LeBron would come out, leaving Schroder to run the offense and then sub back in for Schroder and then sub back in mid first and second half to serve as the “point guard” when Schroder got his breather. I love this staggered approach from a correlation perspective as both players have a path then to ceiling with you always having at least one on the court to attack this Nets back court.

So what does this look like?

Step 1 is to lock in the 3 stars in LeBron, Kyrie and Harden. The stars and their raw points are what is going to dictate your cash position on a slate this size. If they have ceiling games, you are likely in a strong cash position – if they do not, well you move on to Friday – so is the life of a GPP game stack.

Step 2 is to lock in the obvious value and I think for me that starts with Marc Gasol and KCP. To get two players with 30+ minutes at $4K or lower in this kind of game environment is just too good to pass on and they complement well with a star like LeBron due to their ability to rack up peripheral/non-scoring stats.

Step 3 (A) is really where you make a decision on the “pay up” – whether you go for someone like Schroder or you push for a third Nets piece.

Step 3 (B): You take your one off value from the other game.

I lumped these two together because I think the punt you choose from the other games is going to decide which “mid-range” plays you can afford. If you can find a true punt in these other games that you like, it gives you FAR more ability to pay up for a Schroder or Jeff Green type, but if you cannot get comfortable, then living down in Bruce Brown land is where you likely end up.

Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

The small slates are always about taking a stand with your NBA DFS builds and this slate is no different. We have massive star power with Giannis in the early game and the Lakers/Nets late-night hammer – the issue with fading them is that you cannot fade the PLAYERS themselves, you need to fade the games.

If the Raptors/Bucks game stays close – Giannis has a 70+ DK point path as he showed in the previous meeting against them. So rather than just “fade him” – I think you fade that game and hope it is one-sided. To me there is no reason to play a Siakam/FVV if you aren’t running it back with Giannis.

This means thinking through game scripts and trying to predict game flows versus specific players.

On this short slate, no game has the mix of star power and value that the Nets and Lakers has, and the fact the pricing is soft enough where we can stack LeBron, Kyrie and Harden together and still feel good about our build – I say, we take the clearest path and simply enjoy the show.

4 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Wednesday, February 17

Gary Gustafson 4 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

It is Hump Day my NBA DFS family and friends and we are back with another Picks and Pivots to help you tackle this 10 game slate on FanDuel and DraftKings!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

We have a ten game slate here on Wednesday and the amount of injury news on this NBA DFS docket is likely going to mean we get another slate with a plethora of value.

The Denver Nuggets again are going to be the linchpin to this slate, and with their game starting an hour after lock – we have to be prepared that we may not have the news we need. Last night, Denver did not rule Monte Morris out until 45 minutes before lock – if they do that again tonight it will be after the 7PM EST lock.

With that in mind, we need to really determine how much exposure we would want before that game (if any) as 7 of the 10 games are 8PM EST or later – meaning we can take the approach of backloading and waiting on news because Denver is THAT important.

The other spot that is going to be a key for this slate in Oklahoma City as they played with a 9 man rotation but on the tail end of the B2B, could we see someone like Al Horford sit?

What this all means is we are likely to have some serious value, but it may be value we have to wait on – and thus back loading our builds could give us the flexibility we need.

Focus on the Stars:

On yesterday’s 6 game slate, we had so much value open with the injury to Monte Morris and Kyrie Irving that it made jamming in multiple stars an easy path – and tonight with a much larger player pool, going in with the same mentality will be critical.

Nikola Jokic ($11K) is the highest-priced player on the slate and boy oh boy – if the Nuggets remain this short-handed against the worst defense in the league in Washington, even $11K may not be enough for Joker. We all know the usage is going to flow through Joker, the 60+ DK point floor feels like a lock and frankly on a slate with this much value, the reason you would use it is to ensure you have Jokic, it is that simple.

The next star on my radar is Damian Lillard ($10.3K) who gets an amazing spot against the New Orleans Pelicans. Take a look at what I wrote yesterday about this same spot for Ja Morant.

Let’s start first with how to attack New Orleans. Over the last 10 games, the Pelicans are giving up the most three-pointers made per game at 17, allowing 41 3PA’s per game which is the third most while also giving up the most assists per game in the NBA.

Morant went out last night and dropped 46 DK points in this same match-up and that was with just one three pointer made. Now flip to Dame – did you know only Steph Curry is averaging more 3PA and 3PM over the last 15 games than Mr. Lillard?

So we get a defense that gives up ceiling games to PG’s and especially those with the ability to hit 3’s. I think we found Stud #2 to lock in alongside the Joker.

With the value we are projecting to get, I think a third star is absolutely viable here tonight – and the question becomes which one. I think you can make a strong case for a runback of Joker with Bradley Beal ($9.8K) in this Denver/Washington game.

With Denver being down multiple starters on the tail end of a B2B, we can expect their defensive rating to dip. We saw it last night that they gave up a 114 defensive rating which is a slight drop from their season long 111 mark. Taking Gary Harris off the court means you are taking one of the better on ball defenders off the court for Denver and that gives Beal a path to a ceiling game. Having Beal and Joker keep this game close is critical to getting the ceiling games from both in a game with the highest total on the slate.

Finding the Value:

Now I could just be lazy here and tell you – wait for the model to give you the value.

The truth is, that is really the right answer and one that worked well last night. Go back and look at what it gave you – with 7 guys projected for 6x+ value including Robert Williams, Facundo Campazzo, and Jared Vanderbilt who all hit and exceeded those projections.

Tonight, I think we end up seeing a similar path and frankly, could see similar names since Williams and Campazzo remain at $3.1K and $3.3K respectively. If Theis and Monte are out again – well, why get cute?

Now, I know many of you may look back and last night and say – well, Brian you know who else was in the model for 6X value? JaMychal Green, Michael Porter Jr. and Zeke Nnaji.

That trio combined for a gross 32 DK points – snowflakes galore!

But here is the part where I tell you trust process over results and as Ghost has said “The Model can’t shoot the ball.”

If you are not interested in Michael Porter Jr. ($6.2K) again tonight – well, you are letting recency cloud your judgement. You think MPJ is going 0-8 from the floor again? You think he is going 0-5 again from deep? He had 7 boards and 3 assists and so if that shot is falling – well, you are going to be really mad you faded.

Same think with JaMychael Green ($4.7K). You think he is going 1 for 7 again? You are not interested in a player who has a 30 minute path against Washington with a short-handed roster?

Let me remind you of something my friends.

Remember a few days ago when the Houston Rockets were short-handed and played the Wizards and we scoffed at the fact that optimals/projections were screaming to play 3,4 and 5 Rockets?

Well, how did that work out? Our friends at Statmuse can show, it worked out pretty darn well.

So before you go and write off MPJ, Green or even NNaji. Remember what short-handed rosters can do against a league worst defense.

Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

Slates dictate plays. Players do not dictate slates.

When a slate like this comes around and you see all the paths for value, you know that is defining a path where multiple stars become an outright requirement.

When the value is not there, we play the mid-range. When the value is there – we go Stars and Scrubs.

On this 10 game slate, we have value and we have it likely in droves and that means prioritizing the stars like Jokic, Dame, and Beal. And it means prioritizing them TOGETHER. Lock in all 3 stars, tack on the punt “du jour” like Mr. Campazzo, and well my friends, the Core 4 writes itself.

4 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Tuesday, February 16

Gary Gustafson 4 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

Happy Tuesday to all my NBA DFS family and friends, back for another Picks and Pivots breakdown after a wild Monday Night of DFS action where we saw winning scores push to over 430 points on DraftKings as it seemed every player on the slate had a massive night. If you put up a score of 320+ and did not cash – simply chalk it up to a crazy night, as most nights those scores are vying for tournament takedowns!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

This slate is pretty awesome – I have to say. Some days you wake up and open a slate and nothing really stands out – but today’s NBA DFS slate I think is one we can really get excited for.

First and foremost, we have just 6 games which is one of my favorite sized slates – big enough to be different but not a 10+ gamer where you feel the need to cover every possible combination.

Secondly, what I really like about this slate is that – we actually have the large majority of news already. We already know Anthony Davis, D’Angelo Russell and Kevin Durant are sidelined and the Nuggets and Thunder will be short-handed – but guess what – do too did DraftKings, and they really are going to make us think before blindly clicking in plays.

Oh, AD is out – so let’s just take the free square in Kyle Kuzma right? Well, DraftKings priced him to $7K – so yeah, you are going to have to work for your value today kids!

Therein lies the issue – the lack of “new news” means the $3K-$4K value extravaganza we saw as recent as yesterday is not available to us – so while there are tons of stars we want, at least early on, we may not have the value to go after multiple high-priced plays.

Where to pivot?

First and foremost – if you have not read Adam’s Cash Game Breakdown – go do it now. Seriously – before you read my article – go read his.

I say this because he nailed the high-end stars that are building blocks tonight. Absolutely nailed it.

What I love about working with this team is how we can compliment each other and our cash game versus GPP brains can take the same slate and see it completely differently.

There is one game from a cash perspective that Adam glossed over and for me as a GPP player, it was the one I honed in on right away – again, seeing the same slate from two different angles.

That game to me is the Memphis Grizzlies and New Orleans Pelicans.

Before we get into the game – more holistically, what draws me to this game is the “lack of news”, the mid-range pricing and the clear and concise rotations.

What is “new” about either of these two teams? We look at the 12 teams on this slate and these two are one of the few that are just kind of playing the same crew on a nightly basis where there is no real mispricing or new news to react to.

From a pricing perspective, there are only two players over $8K on DraftKings, making this one of the better bargain games to build around when you consider the starting units on both teams are locked into consistent 30-minute roles.

Lastly, we have a Vegas game environment with a 230 total and more importantly, two of the worst defensive teams in the league in recent weeks. Over the last 10 games, the Pelicans rank as the 3rd worst defensive team while the Grizzlies sit at the 8th worst mark. So high total, condensed rotations, reasonable pricing, and two bad defenses – oh yeah, and a national TV game.

Time to stack baby.

Sounds like a good spot to attack with guards huh?

Ja Morant ($7.5K) is coming off three straight double-doubles as his minutes and assist totals have pushed higher each night as he comes back from his lengthy injury absence.

The three-pointers however are not going to come from Ja – they will however come from his backcourt mates – Dillon Brooks ($5.5K) and Grayson Allen ($4.7K).

With Bane and Melton sidelined, it has pushed Allen into the starting role and he has had two games now in his past three where he has shot 10+ three’s – if he gets that kind of volume, in this kind of matchup – oh boy, hello ceiling. Against the Lakers and Hornets, he put up 22 3PA and went for 30+ DK points which would far exceed 6X value at this price tag – I think that kind of game is easily attainable tonight and he is one of the best values on the board.

When these two teams played back on February 6th, it was Kyle Anderson ($6.4K) who took the most 3’s but Brooks was not far behind with 6 attempts. The issue that night – he went 0-6 from deep. However, Brooks is going to step into 30 minutes here tonight against a team that is getting gutted by three-point shooters lately and my guess is that most take the savings with Grayson and may overlook the exact same spot for Brooks.

Back to Kyle Anderson real quick – I hate paying the premium for Slo-Mo who is at the highest price point of the year but he is paying it off consistently. Anderson gives you multiple ways to pay off this tag as he racks up peripherals and as we saw against the Hornets and Pelicans, when he is shooting 3’s – hes a 40 point DK player which still gets you 6.3x on this price tag.

Jonas Valanciunas ($7.6K) is the perfect correlation play with the Grizzlies guards – a big man with 20/20 potential who dropped 36 DK points in just 24 minutes the last time they played. The minutes were low because it was his first game back in nearly a month but with 2 games of 30+ minutes this past week, if we are getting full run JoVal – this could be a 50+ ceiling game.

The Grizzlies have been every bit as bad defensively as the Pelicans – just “different bad.” They are just giving up an insane amount of efficiency to opposing shooters – allowing 50.1% from the floor which is 2nd highest in the league the last 10 games and 41.4% from deep which is 3rd most. Additionally they giving up the 2nd most turnovers per game – so while the pace is not what we saw last year with New Orleans – the spike in turnover is pushing more possessions and with it, more opportunity for fantasy points.

In the meeting a few days ago against Memphis we saw the usual suspects have strong games – as Brandon Ingram ($8.4K) dropped 58 DK points, with Zion Williamson ($8.2K) put up 45 and Lonzo Ball ($6.7K) followed with 41.

In that game, Ingram was a monster on the glass with 12 rebounds and 4 blocks to go along with it – which is what drove the ceiling game for BI on the wing.

While all three Pelicans noted above are in play again – I do want to point out my interest in Eric Bledsoe ($5.2K) and Steven Adams ($5.1K).

Bledsoe dropped 35 DK points of his own against Memphis, which would put him at nearly 7X value at this price tag tonight. Bledsoe was $6.1K the last time these teams met but a series of duds brought his price down substantially to $5.2K on DK. Now Bledsoe has played back to back games of 30+ minutes and gets the same spot he just crushed at a $1K discount – yes please!

Adams is not someone I have looked to use often this season, but this match-up against JoVal could be one where he pushes 30+ minutes to match the ole GIRTH FOR GIRTH. When given the minutes – 29+ – Adams has shown his ceiling recently with 30+ DK points now in 3 of his last 7 games and that kind of game would give you 6x value at this price tag tonight.

The one thing I will say – before you start clicking in names. THINK THROUGH CORRELATION.

If you are playing the Memphis 3 point barrage, don’t play all of Grayson, Brooks and Anderson – it is unlikely they all get there. If you play Adams with his rebounding upside – I would not use him with Zion as an example as the rebounds Adams gets, take away from Zion’s ceiling.

Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

What you see with this slate tonight is that we may have the stars, but the news has largely been baked into the pricing which makes finding the scrubs, a far more difficult path.

Instead, this slate leaves you an ignored and under-priced mid-range with a game like the Pelicans/Grizzlies that has a high total, condensed rotations and two of the worst defenses in the NBA the last 10 games. All that sets up for a game stack to build your GPP lineups around!

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Thursday, December 31

Gary Gustafson 4 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

Happy last day of 2020 my NBA DFS friends – I am sure many of you are looking forward to putting this year behind us but before we can turn the page to 2021, we have two slates here to play today as we have an entire day of NBA action and Draftkings has chopped the slates into a 2 gamer and a 5 game “main slate” to end the year!

This is the FINAL DAY that this article and the rest of our NBA DFS content will be FREE as we move behind the paywall in 2021 but if you have been reading along each day, my hope is you have seen how valuable our content can be in helping you improve as a DFS player and you look to stick around!

If you are looking to take your game to the next level – make sure you jump on this deal from Win Daily sports right now, for just ~$20/month, you can lock in the entire NBA season and get our ALL SPORTS package, giving you access to every week of the NFL regular and postseason. You are not going to find a better deal in the industry so sign up now and LET’S GO!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Early Slate

The two-game “early slate” may as well be a showdown slate with the Wizards/Bulls game as the clear target to build around in our NBA DFS lineups. With a 235 game total between the first and third fastest-paced teams in the NBA this season, my expectation is we see this game play at the same breakneck speed that it did in their match-up just a few days ago – 108 total possessions – so more possessions equals more fantasy production!

Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal are both under $10K on DraftKings and accounted for 45% of the Wizards shot attempts in the last match-up between these teams.

While you can make the argument that it would be tough for both players to have ceiling games, if you look at the rotations last game, the Wizards staggered Westbrook/Beal in the first half – subbing Westbrook out early and letting Beal run the offense and then having Westbrook be the direct sub for Beal. Two games prior against Orlando, the duo ran the same staggered rotations and I think as long as that is the case, it is viable to pay for both players in the same lineup, especially on a short slate like this.

Davis Bertans ($5.2K) saw his minutes limit increased last game, playing a season high 26 minutes and he shot the ball 10 times on his way to 31 DK points. With similar minutes or a slight uptick, he is just flat out too cheap and I think represents one of the best PP/$ plays on this early slate.

On the Bulls side of this game, we need to watch for the status of Lauri Markannen who left the last game minutes into the second half with an injury and was unable to practice with the team yesterday which could open up some Bulls value.

While Chandler Hutchinson was the direct sub for Lauri when he came out in the second half, it was really Otto Porter Jr. and Garret Temple that saw the biggest uptick and it was this duo that was on the court to close out the game in the 4th quarter. While Porter is priced up – Temple is not at just $3.3K and with double-digit FGA last game, could end up being the type of 6-7x value piece that allows you to really get the star power from this game.

On the Bulls – that star power really is all about Zach LaVine who put up 46 DK points last game and then say DraftKings drop his price to $7.9K. Yeah, lock him in and do not think twice about it.

Back court mate Coby White ($6.3K) started the season slow but has clearly found his groove the last two games with 36 and 37 minutes played and that kind of court time in a pace up spot at a mid-range price makes him an appealing building block today. Frankly you can make the same argument for Wendell Carter Jr. ($6K) who has played 31 and 34 minutes the last two games – easy mid-range exposure to this game!

On a two game slate like this, I want to simply plant a flag and this game is the clear best game environment to attack. The Wizards offense is so concentrated with Westbrook/Beal/Bertans that it becomes very easy to anchor to that core and run it back with LaVine as priority #1 on the Bulls. I lean towards pairing him with White as this duo was #1-#2 on the team in usage last year with Markannen off the court.

All this stacking means you simply get your cheap value from the Cavs/Pacers to fill pout your builds and with Kevin Love, Isaac Okoro and Kevin Porter Jr. out on the Cavs side and TJ Warren out for the Pacers – well there are a ton of pieces that become viable punts now.

Justin Holiday ($3.9K) is projected to enter the Pacers starting line-up and becomes arguably the top value play as you can see in our custom projections and a key core play as we look to jam in Westbrook/Beal and LaVine.

The Cavaliers have opted to start Dante Exum ($3.4K) today over Cedi Osman – making him an elite value play on this early slate as well.

No matter whether you chose to game stack OR you pick and choose – I think you minimally need 3 stars on DraftKings and with plays like Exum and the Holiday(s) on Indiana, it is an easy, and likely chalky build – but the right one.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Main Slate Breakdown

When looking at the Main Slate here tonight on DraftKings, we have five games which range from 6:30 PM EST to 9 PM EST and while we have some serious star power, there is also a pretty clear lack of value which may make Stars and Scrubs a more difficult path to work in.

I think at first glance the Houston/Sacramento game will be what jumps out to everyone with the highest total on the but I think with the return of John Wall, Eric Gordon and Boogie Cousins, there is now a crowded enough rotation that I think fading this spot as chalk could end up giving us some solid leverage off the field.

Instead – the game that I love for GPP’s tonight is the first one on the slate in the Sixers/Magic as it has the fastest projected pace and the star power with plays like Joel Embiid and Nikola Vucevic that can anchor winning GPP builds.

On the Sixers side, it all starts with Embiid ($10K) as the high usage star and one of only two $10K plays on the slate (with James Harden being the other). We have seen it time and time again this year that stars dictate the slate and if I am going to fade Harden and the Rockets, then taking Embiid becomes the logical pivot at the high end.

With Ben Simmons being over-priced at $9.2K – I would rather get my secondary exposure to the Sixers with Seth Curry ($5.4K) and Tobias Harris ($7.1K) who are reasonably priced considering the 30+ minute roles they have in this lineup.

The Orlando Magic side of this game all starts with Nikola Vucevic ($8.7K) at a price that is frankly – WAY too cheap. Vuc is averaging 52 DK points per game against Embiid over their last 5 meetings you can pair him with Markelle Fultz ($6.3K) as a high correlation duo with their use of the pick and roll.

We just got news that Terrence Ross will be out and I think that could set us up for a big bounce back spot for Aaron Gordon ($6K). Gordon has had his minutes monitored the last two games, playing just 22 minutes last time out however he was cleared to play up to 28 minutes and we have seen him already push for 30 minutes this season. If AG is cleared for his normal run especially with Ross ruled out, he could crush this price point which is at a season low on DraftKings.

Going with a 3v3 game stack of Embiid/Tobias/Curry and running it back with Vuc/AG/Fultz leaves you with $3.3K per player for the last two spots in and while the value may not be obvious YET – this is NBA DFS and we know it will come – and using our Value Projections will be the easiest way to mix and match those values in our builds tonight.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

Part of me wishes these slates were combined today but getting to play two different NBA slates while we wait to kick in 2021 is not the worst consolation price.

For the early slate – the strategy is simple – game stack the Bulls/Wizards and pick 1-2 value plays from the Pacers to make it all work. Keep it simple.

On the Main Slate – assuming the ownership flocks to the Rockets/Kings – I love the pivot to a Sixers/Magic game stack which provides similar star power and some mid-range pricing that leaves a ton of room for profit!

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA season with some big wins!

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Wednesday, December 30

Gary Gustafson 4 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

It is HUMP DAY my NBA DFS friends and we are greeted with a perfectly sized six-game slate to play on DraftKings and FanDuel this evening. After Tuesday Night’s monster 10 gamer that was well, the usual NBA DFS nonsense, with news like Kawhi Leonard and Jamal Murray both being ruled out well after lock – hopefully, this one plays a bit more straight on.

Any time you have slates like last night where key players are ruled out after lock, it is always a frustrating reminder of what this sport can be as had we known that news prior to tip-off we would have made guys like Paul George and Nikola Jokic core plays. If you are new to NBA DFS, you need to understand the importance of late swap and that “watching the news” doesn’t just apply to the first game’s tip-off. Keeping those alerts on until all games have started is a necessary part of the NBA grind!

This article remains free through the end of 2020 as does the rest of our daily content offerings but that clock is ticking and after starting out this season hot – there is no better time to join the Win Daily Sports family. Hurry – just one more day left!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – First Look

While we have a much more manageable slate here tonight, it does not mean we start off the day free of injury news that could and will change the slate once we get it (hopefully before the 7:30 PM EST lock).

LeBron James is once again questionable to play. Key note – today is LeBron’s birthday so you know the narrative is strong.
Kawhi Leonard missed last night’s game with a “mouth” – as we outlined here yesterday if he is out, it is a huge bump to Paul George and Lou Williams.
Ja Morant and Kristaps Porzingis remain out for the next few weeks.
Jimmy Butler is officially listed as questionable on the B2B in a rematch of Tuesday Night’s Bucks-Heat beatdown.

When setting your lineups tonight, it is important to note that 5 of the 6 games are set to tip-off by 8:30 PM EST with the Clippers/Blazers as the lone 10 PM EST start. What that means – if we do not have Kawhi Leonard news by say 8-8:15 PM EST, you better be ready to pivot because you won’t have many options if you chose to wait for final lineup confirmation in that late-night hammer.

My gut feel – LeBron will play, Kawhi will return as they used the “mouth” injury as a reason to get in some load management and Jimmy Butler will be back after watching his team get their teeth kicked in. If that all happens – well – bye bye value!

Buiding Our Core:

One of the most consistent questions the experts at Win Daily Sports get each day in Discord is if we have a “core” to build around. The short answer is – yes, typically – and so today I will do my best to outline a core build strategy in this first look article and we can revisit that in my FREE Picks and Pivots live video which you can find on our YouTube channel.

Today’s core for me is going to start and end with the Brooklyn/Atlanta game that checks all the boxes we look for in NBA DFS – 1) High total at nearly 240, 2) the fastest projected pace between two teams that have been top 10 in pace both last year and so far this regular season and 3) the perfect blend of star power and value!

Let’s not bury the lead – start your builds today with the star trio in this game – Trae Young with Kyrie Irving & Kevin Durant. The pricing on these guys is laughable – both Nets studs under $9K? I can stack all three and still have $4.7K left per player. There is my core – done and done.

In all seriousness, the Nets stars are just too cheap in this type of game environment and if you are stacking them, you need to run it back with Trae with the assumption he is the reason this game stays close and we get a full game of run from our pay up stars.

Finding Our Value:

You can make a very strong argument to simply stay in Brooklyn and Atlanta to find all your value as the rest of this game is seemingly all under-priced. Only one other player in this game, besides the big 3, is above $7K and that is John Collins – meaning the rest of the game can become easy mix and matches if you want to game stack it.

On the Hawks side, this is a team that could be getting back to full health as we saw Clint Capela return to the starting lineup last game, and tonight we could get Danillo Gallinari back as well. The hard part with Atlanta is, the healthier they get, the deeper the rotation is and the more it caps the value we have found in these fringe players. If Gallo is back it really limits the appeal of Bogdanovic/Hunter as this trio is going to present a really crowded wing rotation for the Hawks and may leave me only interested in the value of Cam Reddish ($4.4K) in the backcourt.

The Nets side of this game after Kyrie/KD also feels far too cheap with Caris LeVert the only play over $6K on DraftKings. With Spencer Dinwiddie out for the year, my expectation is LeVert stays in the 6th man role in games where Kyrie/KD are healthy which likely means TLC ($4K) slots into the starting lineup.

Now, I know we were on TLC last game but let’s not get it twisted – homeboy is not going to get a 25% usage rate with Kyrie and KD back on the court. Go play defense and stand in the corner and be ready if they happen to kick it to you. And if that is the route you are playing – then play Joe Harris ($5.1K) who becomes the default third option now in the starting unit and gives you far more peripheral upside.

The Nets player I am really intrigued by tonight is DeAndre Jordan ($4.6K) as a result of this match-up with both Clint Capela and John Collins on the Atlanta side. The Nets are going to have to play more traditional big man minutes with the Hawk’s ability to play big and we saw it last game against Memphis with Jonas Valanciunas that DJ basically matched his court time so they could match GIRTH WITH GIRTH.

I really just wanted to write girth in my article today.

If DJ does get anywhere close to 30 minutes again, at this price point – he could end up with an easy path to 6X once again!

Now – there is one other spot on this slate that I have a ton of interest for value and that resides in Dallas as a result of Josh Richardson being questionable.

If you have read Picks and Pivots before, you know where this is going. If you are new – well, welcome to the show.

Say it with me people – Tim Hardaway Jr.

Yeah, it may have taken me over a week into the NBA season to mention the Picks and Pivots cover boy but if Richardson is out tonight – THJ is going to shimmy his way right into my core!

If there is one thing we know with Dallas, it is that they DESPERATELY need that secondary scoring option alongside Luka Doncic and from a DFS perspective, that secondary option tends to draw strong usage and volume. With Kristaps Porzingis sidelined and if Richardson were to sit – that all flows to THJ ($5.8K).

It is a small sample size obviously but with Richardson off the court this season, Hardaway has a ….wait for it… 35% usage rate. Now, I understand it is in 25 minutes of court time but this is what we know with Dallas thus far – there are legit only 3 offensive options with Luka, Richardson, and THJ right now and they are the only three players averaging double-digit FGA.

If you take Richardson off the court – sure, Luka may shoot it 50 times but I want that cheap secondary piece every time and against the Hornets tonight, that means ALL the THJ.

One other value piece here before we go – keep an eye on our projections model today because I am fascinated to see how Trey Burke ($3.2K) pops IF Richardson is ruled out. Burke is the direct sub for Richardson and has the kind of offensive game that could get you 10X value if he is chucking. After calling my shot with TLC two nights ago and Hamidou Diallo last night – tonight, Trey Burke is my punt value LOCK of the night if Richardson is out.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

After a massive slate last night, this six gamer is exactly the kind of slate I love to play in NBA DFS as it is big enough where we can get different but its not so overwhelming we have to cover every possible player option.

This slate for me starts with Brooklyn and Atlanta and that is where I will plant my flag – not only with the the star trio but I think we can mix and match the mid-range value here easily in a game stack.

Keep an eye on the news – remember we get an extra 30 minutes before lock tonight – and if you have not – come join the Win Daily team, I promise you it will be worth your time!

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA season with some big wins!

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday, September 7

Brian Tulloch 5 years ago

written by Brian Tulloch

Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

We are back with another two game slate and we are getting to the point in the playoffs as teams look to close out, that we have only a few two game slates left to play NBA DFS before we become more showdown focused.

Both series tonight however are tied at 2-2 between Boston/Torono and 1-1 between Clippers/Nuggets and the biggest news we have to wait on is the status of Nikola Jokic who is questionable with a hand injury.

This injury comes as a surprise, and it would obviously change the landscape of the entire slate as you could have big-time blowout risk if he sits, while also seeing massive value boosts to the rest of the Nuggets. It is more than likely we have no news before lock of Boston/Toronto so you have to take your stand on how we approach this.

https://twitter.com/HarrisonWind/status/1302720828069478401

While the balanced build and picking and choosing your spots from each game has been the winning formula in NBA DFS the last week, I also think it becomes far more difficult to hit on that formula unless you are multi-entering. The difference between going Kyle Lowry or Fred Van Vleet as an example could be the difference between winning and losing.

So rather than try and pick the one or two guys that I think will have strong games – I am going to argue game stacking and taking your stand that way. Now obviously Toronto/Boston is the safer game stack in the sense that we have no unknown injury news like we do in the late game, but it also features the #1 and #2 teams in terms of defensive rating in these playoffs so it is hard to see a stack of this game working with multiple players hitting their ceiling in a playoff slugfest.

Instead – lets rock some Clippers/Nuggets stack and assume Big Honey is ready to roll after his massive Game 2 performance where he dropped 61 DK points on the back of a 26/18 line.

Denver went to a new lineup, putting Garry Harris into the starting unit and it seemed to work to perfection as Denver relied almost entirely on the starting five of Jokic, Murray, Grant, Millsap and Harris.

We all know the offense runs through Murray/Joker at this point but the other three are viable secondary plays at $4K-$5K on DK here today considering the massive minutes they will play.

The Clippers meanwhile will roll out their usual crew with Pat Beverley back but remaining on a minutes limit. While Kawhi Leonard ($10.3K) remains the top play on LAC, the fact he has only registered 41 nd 45 DK points seems to hammer home the trend on these two games slates that we opt for savings and balance – therefore maybe the approach is to use a Paul George/Lou Williams pairing to get our Clippers exposure.

The value here could come from JaMychael Green ($3.6K) who registered a double-double and 25 DK points last game. Now the fantasy production may be an outlier, but the minutes (26) are in line with the 21 he played in Game 1 and at this point – finding value with 20+ minute routes is all we can ask for on these slates.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap Up

These NBA DFS two game slates continue to be a crap shoot – take your stand and move on. Rather than try and correctly pick with one of the Raptors or Celtics Big 3 is going to have the big game – I like the idea of fading the faster pace/higher total game and simply stacking the Clippers/Nuggets hammer in hopes that the first game on the slate remains a defensive slobberknocker. Yeah I said slobberknocker.

Let’s jump into Discord and talk strategy today – the small pivots we make can make a massive difference on a two-game slate!

5 years ago 0 comments

NBA

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Friday, September 4

Gary Gustafson 5 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

We continue to see on these two game NBA playoff DFS slates how small the margin of error is and how game by game it becomes a coin flip of key players.

Take yesterday as an example with the Celtics – Jason Tatum underwhelmed at just 37 DK points while Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown were the Celtics to own with 44 DK points each at near $2K price discounts.

Pascal Siakam put up a 31 DK point dud and instead it was Kyle Lowry who put up the 54 DK point ceiling game and was a key piece of optimal rosters.

The margin of error at this point in determining your cash position in DFS is razor thin and the 1v1 type decisions within the same rosters are what we are going to live and die by each and every slate for the remainder of the playoffs.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Stars

The biggest difference between yesterday’s slate and today’s is that we are JAMMED with superstars on this slate and DraftKings is not messing around, with four stars priced above $10K including Giannis, LeBron, AD and James Harden.

The issue we have is that on a two game slate we are going to be challenged for value and the search for value on these slates has become a wild guessing game on a seemingly nightly basis.

Let’s start with the stars though and how we intend to approach them.

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11.5K) has underhwhelmed through the first two games of this series as the Bucks find themselves down 0-2, and his fantasy performances of 47 and 53 DK points have not even reached 4.5x return on his price tag. The kicker? DK actually INCREASED his price $100 from where it was in Game 1 and Game 2!

Giannis saw his ownership drop from 50% plus in Game 1 to 35% in Game 2 and remember – those slates only had one other “pay up stud” in James Harden. So now after two subpar games, and the addition of LeBron/AD to the player pool – how far does the ownership drop?

The Heat have defended Giannis incredibly well, limiting his points and ability to get to the paint and there is no reason to think that strategy will change. However, this is still Giannis – in a must win game – and so if he is going to be the star everyone writes off in DFS – how can you not have tournament interest?

LeBron James ($11K) and Anthony Davis ($10.6K) get their first crack at the Rockets and in the only meeting they had pre-bubble with both stars playing, LeBron went for 56 DK points while AD dropped 66.

That game is a good data point because it was when the Rockets had committed to small ball and not surprisingly, AD tore them up – with a line of 32/13 with 6 combined blocks/steals.

I lean AD if being forced to choose – one because we not only get the price discount (which is key on a slate with little value) and the fact we can use him at Center on DraftKings.

Lastly we have James Harden ($11.2K) who well, as much as I like him – how can I make the argument to pay nearly $3K more when I can get Russell Westbrook ($8.4K) who is back to playing 30+ minutes for Houston?

In the two games that Harden and Westbrook played together against LA this year – Westbrook went for 57 and 60 DK points while Harden managed just 36 and 52. The price for Westbrook is simply too low and when I plant my flag on a Houston star – I am going to take the price savings on Westy who has shown every bit the ceiling we want from a $10K player (who is just $8K tonight).

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Balance or Punt City?

My initial reaction today is to lock in AD and Westbrook and I think that pairing will likely be popular up top.

From there, will folks opt to go more balanced with over $5K per player to spend OR can they jam in another star like LeBron or Giannis and build an extreme Stars and Scrubs build with the rest of the roster coming under $4K?

If recent slates have shown us anything – it is that the scrub approach has seemingly failed more than it has succeeded with the balanced builds providing more consistent cash positions.

The value is very tough to come by on this slate, especially when you consider how top heavy teams like LA and Houston really are but I do think we have paths here today to some “safe” value (which I cringe as I write that).

Danny Green ($4.1K) and Kentavious Caldwell Pope ($3.8K) give you two punts with starting roles and path to 30+ minutes and to be honest – that is basically the route we are looking at today as we search for guys who can get us 20-25 DK points to pair around the studs. You can take both players as they have a neutral correlation to each other and allow you to fill SG/SF with ease – or you can plant your flag with one versus the other and hope you chose wisely.

The Milwaukee/Miami game last game saw both teams extend to ten man rotations and that alone is going to make picking and choosing value from this game VERY dicey.

The Bucks are the team I have more immediate interest in – and my focus is going to be on the cheap starters. Eric Bledsoe ($5.7K) played 31 minutes in Game 2 after missing Game 1 with an injury and Wes Matthews ($3.5K) logged 30 minutes.

Much like the argument for KCP/Green – you are finding value in minutes – and targeting guys that have 30+ minute paths. One bench piece from Milwaukee that I also think is viable is Marvin Williams ($3.3K) who has clearly carved out a 20-25 minute role on the second unit. It is worth noting that all 3 of these Bucks have positive fantasy correlation on this season alongside Giannis – so there is a path to success even if Giannis is the one dominating the touches and fantasy production.

Miami – honestly – may just be a stay away for me if they are all healthy. If Kelly Olynyk and Andre Igoudala end up sitting, then I think you can feel far better about using the secondary pieces on Miami but if they are all fully healthy – Miami may be a case where you limit your pool to the 4 starters in Bam, Butler, Dragic and Crowder and avoid the dartboard that is the rest of their roster.

If you do want to punt – keep an eye on Derrick Jones Jr. ($3K) who would get a massive bump if Kelly O and Iggy were out. Jones got into the rotation in the second half of Game 2 and ending up playing 7 of the final 13 minutes and was an impact player in that time – getting 3 blocked shots and if you watched that game, he was all over the court. That effort could lead to more minutes and if Iggy is out as an example, I would lock him in at min priced.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap Up

I will continue to say this on every two-game slate we have – TAKE YOUR STAND and then, let the chips fall where they may. If you take your stand with Anthony Davis tonight and it ends up being LeBron who has the ceiling game – so be it.

Let’s jump into Discord and talk strategy today – the small pivots we make can make a massive difference on a two-game slate!

5 years ago 0 comments

Newer Posts

Older Posts

LeBron James

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

Building a Core

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

Nets and Lakers Game Stack

Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

Focus on the Stars:

Finding the Value:

Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

Where to pivot?

Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Early Slate

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Main Slate Breakdown

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – First Look

Buiding Our Core:

Finding Our Value:

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap Up

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Stars

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Balance or Punt City?

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap Up

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