LeBron James

Happy last day of 2020 my NBA DFS friends – I am sure many of you are looking forward to putting this year behind us but before we can turn the page to 2021, we have two slates here to play today as we have an entire day of NBA action and Draftkings has chopped the slates into a 2 gamer and a 5 game “main slate” to end the year!

This is the FINAL DAY that this article and the rest of our NBA DFS content will be FREE as we move behind the paywall in 2021 but if you have been reading along each day, my hope is you have seen how valuable our content can be in helping you improve as a DFS player and you look to stick around!

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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Early Slate

The two-game “early slate” may as well be a showdown slate with the Wizards/Bulls game as the clear target to build around in our NBA DFS lineups. With a 235 game total between the first and third fastest-paced teams in the NBA this season, my expectation is we see this game play at the same breakneck speed that it did in their match-up just a few days ago – 108 total possessions – so more possessions equals more fantasy production!

Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal are both under $10K on DraftKings and accounted for 45% of the Wizards shot attempts in the last match-up between these teams.

While you can make the argument that it would be tough for both players to have ceiling games, if you look at the rotations last game, the Wizards staggered Westbrook/Beal in the first half – subbing Westbrook out early and letting Beal run the offense and then having Westbrook be the direct sub for Beal. Two games prior against Orlando, the duo ran the same staggered rotations and I think as long as that is the case, it is viable to pay for both players in the same lineup, especially on a short slate like this.

Davis Bertans ($5.2K) saw his minutes limit increased last game, playing a season high 26 minutes and he shot the ball 10 times on his way to 31 DK points. With similar minutes or a slight uptick, he is just flat out too cheap and I think represents one of the best PP/$ plays on this early slate.

On the Bulls side of this game, we need to watch for the status of Lauri Markannen who left the last game minutes into the second half with an injury and was unable to practice with the team yesterday which could open up some Bulls value.

While Chandler Hutchinson was the direct sub for Lauri when he came out in the second half, it was really Otto Porter Jr. and Garret Temple that saw the biggest uptick and it was this duo that was on the court to close out the game in the 4th quarter. While Porter is priced up – Temple is not at just $3.3K and with double-digit FGA last game, could end up being the type of 6-7x value piece that allows you to really get the star power from this game.

On the Bulls – that star power really is all about Zach LaVine who put up 46 DK points last game and then say DraftKings drop his price to $7.9K. Yeah, lock him in and do not think twice about it.

Back court mate Coby White ($6.3K) started the season slow but has clearly found his groove the last two games with 36 and 37 minutes played and that kind of court time in a pace up spot at a mid-range price makes him an appealing building block today. Frankly you can make the same argument for Wendell Carter Jr. ($6K) who has played 31 and 34 minutes the last two games – easy mid-range exposure to this game!

On a two game slate like this, I want to simply plant a flag and this game is the clear best game environment to attack. The Wizards offense is so concentrated with Westbrook/Beal/Bertans that it becomes very easy to anchor to that core and run it back with LaVine as priority #1 on the Bulls. I lean towards pairing him with White as this duo was #1-#2 on the team in usage last year with Markannen off the court.

All this stacking means you simply get your cheap value from the Cavs/Pacers to fill pout your builds and with Kevin Love, Isaac Okoro and Kevin Porter Jr. out on the Cavs side and TJ Warren out for the Pacers – well there are a ton of pieces that become viable punts now.

Justin Holiday ($3.9K) is projected to enter the Pacers starting line-up and becomes arguably the top value play as you can see in our custom projections and a key core play as we look to jam in Westbrook/Beal and LaVine.

The Cavaliers have opted to start Dante Exum ($3.4K) today over Cedi Osman – making him an elite value play on this early slate as well.

No matter whether you chose to game stack OR you pick and choose – I think you minimally need 3 stars on DraftKings and with plays like Exum and the Holiday(s) on Indiana, it is an easy, and likely chalky build – but the right one.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Main Slate Breakdown

When looking at the Main Slate here tonight on DraftKings, we have five games which range from 6:30 PM EST to 9 PM EST and while we have some serious star power, there is also a pretty clear lack of value which may make Stars and Scrubs a more difficult path to work in.

I think at first glance the Houston/Sacramento game will be what jumps out to everyone with the highest total on the but I think with the return of John Wall, Eric Gordon and Boogie Cousins, there is now a crowded enough rotation that I think fading this spot as chalk could end up giving us some solid leverage off the field.

Instead – the game that I love for GPP’s tonight is the first one on the slate in the Sixers/Magic as it has the fastest projected pace and the star power with plays like Joel Embiid and Nikola Vucevic that can anchor winning GPP builds.

On the Sixers side, it all starts with Embiid ($10K) as the high usage star and one of only two $10K plays on the slate (with James Harden being the other). We have seen it time and time again this year that stars dictate the slate and if I am going to fade Harden and the Rockets, then taking Embiid becomes the logical pivot at the high end.

With Ben Simmons being over-priced at $9.2K – I would rather get my secondary exposure to the Sixers with Seth Curry ($5.4K) and Tobias Harris ($7.1K) who are reasonably priced considering the 30+ minute roles they have in this lineup.

The Orlando Magic side of this game all starts with Nikola Vucevic ($8.7K) at a price that is frankly – WAY too cheap. Vuc is averaging 52 DK points per game against Embiid over their last 5 meetings you can pair him with Markelle Fultz ($6.3K) as a high correlation duo with their use of the pick and roll.

We just got news that Terrence Ross will be out and I think that could set us up for a big bounce back spot for Aaron Gordon ($6K). Gordon has had his minutes monitored the last two games, playing just 22 minutes last time out however he was cleared to play up to 28 minutes and we have seen him already push for 30 minutes this season. If AG is cleared for his normal run especially with Ross ruled out, he could crush this price point which is at a season low on DraftKings.

Going with a 3v3 game stack of Embiid/Tobias/Curry and running it back with Vuc/AG/Fultz leaves you with $3.3K per player for the last two spots in and while the value may not be obvious YET – this is NBA DFS and we know it will come – and using our Value Projections will be the easiest way to mix and match those values in our builds tonight.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

Part of me wishes these slates were combined today but getting to play two different NBA slates while we wait to kick in 2021 is not the worst consolation price.

For the early slate – the strategy is simple – game stack the Bulls/Wizards and pick 1-2 value plays from the Pacers to make it all work. Keep it simple.

On the Main Slate – assuming the ownership flocks to the Rockets/Kings – I love the pivot to a Sixers/Magic game stack which provides similar star power and some mid-range pricing that leaves a ton of room for profit!

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA season with some big wins!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

It is HUMP DAY my NBA DFS friends and we are greeted with a perfectly sized six-game slate to play on DraftKings and FanDuel this evening. After Tuesday Night’s monster 10 gamer that was well, the usual NBA DFS nonsense, with news like Kawhi Leonard and Jamal Murray both being ruled out well after lock – hopefully, this one plays a bit more straight on.

Any time you have slates like last night where key players are ruled out after lock, it is always a frustrating reminder of what this sport can be as had we known that news prior to tip-off we would have made guys like Paul George and Nikola Jokic core plays. If you are new to NBA DFS, you need to understand the importance of late swap and that “watching the news” doesn’t just apply to the first game’s tip-off. Keeping those alerts on until all games have started is a necessary part of the NBA grind!

This article remains free through the end of 2020 as does the rest of our daily content offerings but that clock is ticking and after starting out this season hot – there is no better time to join the Win Daily Sports family. Hurry – just one more day left!

If you are looking to take your game to the next level – make sure you jump on this deal from Win Daily sports right now, for just ~$20/month, you can lock in the entire NBA season and get our ALL SPORTS package, giving you access to every week of the NFL regular and postseason. You are not going to find a better deal in the industry so sign up now and LET’S GO!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – First Look

While we have a much more manageable slate here tonight, it does not mean we start off the day free of injury news that could and will change the slate once we get it (hopefully before the 7:30 PM EST lock).

• LeBron James is once again questionable to play. Key note – today is LeBron’s birthday so you know the narrative is strong.
• Kawhi Leonard missed last night’s game with a “mouth” – as we outlined here yesterday if he is out, it is a huge bump to Paul George and Lou Williams.
• Ja Morant and Kristaps Porzingis remain out for the next few weeks.
• Jimmy Butler is officially listed as questionable on the B2B in a rematch of Tuesday Night’s Bucks-Heat beatdown.

When setting your lineups tonight, it is important to note that 5 of the 6 games are set to tip-off by 8:30 PM EST with the Clippers/Blazers as the lone 10 PM EST start. What that means – if we do not have Kawhi Leonard news by say 8-8:15 PM EST, you better be ready to pivot because you won’t have many options if you chose to wait for final lineup confirmation in that late-night hammer.

My gut feel – LeBron will play, Kawhi will return as they used the “mouth” injury as a reason to get in some load management and Jimmy Butler will be back after watching his team get their teeth kicked in. If that all happens – well – bye bye value!

Buiding Our Core:

One of the most consistent questions the experts at Win Daily Sports get each day in Discord is if we have a “core” to build around. The short answer is – yes, typically – and so today I will do my best to outline a core build strategy in this first look article and we can revisit that in my FREE Picks and Pivots live video which you can find on our YouTube channel.

Today’s core for me is going to start and end with the Brooklyn/Atlanta game that checks all the boxes we look for in NBA DFS – 1) High total at nearly 240, 2) the fastest projected pace between two teams that have been top 10 in pace both last year and so far this regular season and 3) the perfect blend of star power and value!

Let’s not bury the lead – start your builds today with the star trio in this game – Trae Young with Kyrie Irving & Kevin Durant. The pricing on these guys is laughable – both Nets studs under $9K? I can stack all three and still have $4.7K left per player. There is my core – done and done.

In all seriousness, the Nets stars are just too cheap in this type of game environment and if you are stacking them, you need to run it back with Trae with the assumption he is the reason this game stays close and we get a full game of run from our pay up stars.

Finding Our Value:

You can make a very strong argument to simply stay in Brooklyn and Atlanta to find all your value as the rest of this game is seemingly all under-priced. Only one other player in this game, besides the big 3, is above $7K and that is John Collins – meaning the rest of the game can become easy mix and matches if you want to game stack it.

On the Hawks side, this is a team that could be getting back to full health as we saw Clint Capela return to the starting lineup last game, and tonight we could get Danillo Gallinari back as well. The hard part with Atlanta is, the healthier they get, the deeper the rotation is and the more it caps the value we have found in these fringe players. If Gallo is back it really limits the appeal of Bogdanovic/Hunter as this trio is going to present a really crowded wing rotation for the Hawks and may leave me only interested in the value of Cam Reddish ($4.4K) in the backcourt.

The Nets side of this game after Kyrie/KD also feels far too cheap with Caris LeVert the only play over $6K on DraftKings. With Spencer Dinwiddie out for the year, my expectation is LeVert stays in the 6th man role in games where Kyrie/KD are healthy which likely means TLC ($4K) slots into the starting lineup.

Now, I know we were on TLC last game but let’s not get it twisted – homeboy is not going to get a 25% usage rate with Kyrie and KD back on the court. Go play defense and stand in the corner and be ready if they happen to kick it to you. And if that is the route you are playing – then play Joe Harris ($5.1K) who becomes the default third option now in the starting unit and gives you far more peripheral upside.

The Nets player I am really intrigued by tonight is DeAndre Jordan ($4.6K) as a result of this match-up with both Clint Capela and John Collins on the Atlanta side. The Nets are going to have to play more traditional big man minutes with the Hawk’s ability to play big and we saw it last game against Memphis with Jonas Valanciunas that DJ basically matched his court time so they could match GIRTH WITH GIRTH.

I really just wanted to write girth in my article today.

If DJ does get anywhere close to 30 minutes again, at this price point – he could end up with an easy path to 6X once again!

Now – there is one other spot on this slate that I have a ton of interest for value and that resides in Dallas as a result of Josh Richardson being questionable.

If you have read Picks and Pivots before, you know where this is going. If you are new – well, welcome to the show.

Say it with me people – Tim Hardaway Jr.

Yeah, it may have taken me over a week into the NBA season to mention the Picks and Pivots cover boy but if Richardson is out tonight – THJ is going to shimmy his way right into my core!

If there is one thing we know with Dallas, it is that they DESPERATELY need that secondary scoring option alongside Luka Doncic and from a DFS perspective, that secondary option tends to draw strong usage and volume. With Kristaps Porzingis sidelined and if Richardson were to sit – that all flows to THJ ($5.8K).

It is a small sample size obviously but with Richardson off the court this season, Hardaway has a ….wait for it… 35% usage rate. Now, I understand it is in 25 minutes of court time but this is what we know with Dallas thus far – there are legit only 3 offensive options with Luka, Richardson, and THJ right now and they are the only three players averaging double-digit FGA.

If you take Richardson off the court – sure, Luka may shoot it 50 times but I want that cheap secondary piece every time and against the Hornets tonight, that means ALL the THJ.

One other value piece here before we go – keep an eye on our projections model today because I am fascinated to see how Trey Burke ($3.2K) pops IF Richardson is ruled out. Burke is the direct sub for Richardson and has the kind of offensive game that could get you 10X value if he is chucking. After calling my shot with TLC two nights ago and Hamidou Diallo last night – tonight, Trey Burke is my punt value LOCK of the night if Richardson is out.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

After a massive slate last night, this six gamer is exactly the kind of slate I love to play in NBA DFS as it is big enough where we can get different but its not so overwhelming we have to cover every possible player option.

This slate for me starts with Brooklyn and Atlanta and that is where I will plant my flag – not only with the the star trio but I think we can mix and match the mid-range value here easily in a game stack.

Keep an eye on the news – remember we get an extra 30 minutes before lock tonight – and if you have not – come join the Win Daily team, I promise you it will be worth your time!

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA season with some big wins!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!