Kevin Harvick

Shockingly, the world of sports, other than MMA and some Soccer, has shut down due to the Coronavirus. This is a good time to reflect and analyze what has worked in the past and tweak where needed to hit the ground running when everything returns. For NASCAR DFS, the preparation and execution of lineups with potential to WIN GPP’s is priority number one.

There are 3 approaches I use in NASCAR DFS depending on my confidence that week and the bankroll I am willing to put at risk. I love to attack the superspeedways like Talledega, Michigan, Pocono, and Daytona. I get very aggressive on these tracks and will throw in 150 plus lineups most weeks. Next for me are the 1.0-1.5 mile tracks, especially those that a dominator can crush. Finally, I tend to avoid very short tracks like Bristol or Martinsville and any road courses. These are just my personal preferences after analyzing years of results.

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Now that my home state of Michigan has opened sportsbooks, I will be playing many more WIN bets and hopefully “Top-5” and Driver Matchups depending on what is offered. This is where I excel. The Westgate Super Book in Las Vegas is where I have made most of my profit over the years betting 4 driver matchups that could also be parlayed. I can only hope Detroit will follow suit with some encouragement.

As for NASCAR DFS, my #1 look is always towards past performances at that track. If I can latch onto a Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, or Joey Logano who dominates a track, I will do so especially if they qualify near the top. I have no problem being 75% plus owned on a dominator. My next look is at the practice sessions. My thought the process is first done they have speed and second, can they maintain that speed over a number of laps.

I will put the practice session in the back of my mind as I watch qualifying. Obviously, if a potential dominator qualifies badly or is forced to the back for an issue, they instantly become chalk. You cannot avoid this. It just becomes a 5 player contest instead of 6 on DraftKings when this occurs. At times I have had the same 2 drivers in over 75% of my lineups if we have a situation with a dominator at the front and back of the starting grid.

Once qualifying has ended, I then rank the entire field based on potential and value. I personally like to create lineups by hand one at a time and check my driver usage along the way to make sure it matches my rankings. I can usually do this up to 40-50 lineups. If I am going for it that week, I will use an optimizer, entering my personal usage percentages from my ranking. While I do read a lot of articles during the week, especially from experts at the track that week, I am confident enough to override others’ opinions for my own. Many times, my driver usage is vastly different from what you will see in NASCAR GPP’s.

The key is to WIN a contest. Usually, you are splitting the top prize, but it can still pay off very well. Hitting the nuts or playing small field single or small MAX contests are the only way to make money. Diversity and aggressiveness have worked well for me, especially at the superspeedways.

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