The Astros can close out the World Series in six games tonight, and our 10/29 DFS picks for MLB will provide some GPP and cash game options to win big!
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The projected implied totals put the Astros one run up at 4.0 to withthe Nats 3.0. With the total at 7, we could have some shares of SP and closers here.
Feel free toperuse my pre-game notes on this matchup ahead of Game 2,especially if you need more information on starters Justin Verlander (DK $16,500/$11,000) and Stephen Strasburg (DK $16,200/$10,800).
These pitchersare evenly matched, and the matchup of these talented hurlers could be one toremember. But Verlander’s velocity is down a bit, and his slider command isn’t whatit was earlier in the season. The Astros ace has also given up six home runs inhis last four games (23.1 IP) to go along with 14 earned runs and 27 Ks. Despitehis recent vulnerability to the longball, he’s pitching to a 3.88 SIERA this postseason.
Verlander hasthrown over 100 pitches in four straight postseason games and will probablyreach that number again tonight in one of the biggest games of his life. Ithink he’s a lock for 15+ DK points with 30-point upside.
Strasburg hasdone a better job limiting damage and has, for the most part, kept opposinghitters in check this postseason, but he yielded seven hits to the Astros juggernautover 6 IP in Game 2. He’s thrown more pitches than Verlander in his past coupleoutings, with 117 against St. Louis in Game 3 of the NLCS and 114 in Game 2 of theWorld Series. He’s carrying a 1.93 ERA this postseason and an impressive 2.08SIERA with 40 Ks in five games (four stars and one three-inning reliefappearance in the NL Wild Card game).
I think Strasburg makes for a fine play in this game, based on his 40:2 K/BB ratio across 28 IP, and the fact that the only runs he allowed in Game 2 came in the first inning on a two-run home run by Alex Bregman.
There’s no way to fade either pitcher except on a hunch that the Natseven this thing up behind a classic performance by Strasburg. For every ten lineupsI make, I’ll include both pitchers in about four, count on one or the other infour more, and have two that are hitters only.
Let’s get to the hitters.
Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley are my favoriteAstros bats, which is a problem because we can’t fit them without sacrificingpitching. Yordan Alvarez isn’t as cheap as Brantley, but he has more upside forhis HR power. For Washington, I’m focused on Juan Soto, Trea Turner and KurtSuzuki (hip flexor strain) – but only if he’s healthy enough to catch Strasburg.Howie Kendrick and Asdrubal Cabrera make some sense, with Kendrick as apowerful RHB and Cabrera getting the nod for value.
I’m just going to keep playing him, even with the reduced pricingdaring me to do so and the chalky taste I’ll get in my mouth after plugging himin. He went yard on Sunday in Game 5 and remains the Nats hottest and besthitter this postseason. Soto now has a 125 wRC+ this postseason to go with 4HR, 12 RBI and a .268 ISO in 15 games. He’s hit two of those homers in this series,and I’m, not betting against a third.
Turner got blanked in Game 5, but we’re going back to the well. He’s going to have more ABs than any other National in this game and he’s too good not to have some kind of impact in consecutive games. The power hasn’t been there this postseason, but the metrics say he’s still a good bet. Plus, Minute Maid park gives right-handed hitters a huge bump because of the increased RHB HR factor.
The BvP data against Verlander is terrible, (5-for-26 career with 0 HR and .077 IS), .230 wOBA) but it’s still a relatively small sample at 26 ABs. I’m leaning toward Kendrick because he’s a right-handed power hitter who’s come up in big spots during his postseason career.
Cabrera has decent numbers against Verlander and has seen him more than anybody on this team – over 30 times more than anybody, to be precise. He’s a professional hitter with plenty of gas in the tank and sneaky power. Don’t play Suzuki in too many lineups if he doesn’t start. I’ll have him in maybe one out of 10 if he doesn’t since he’s a better contact hitter than Gomes and they may need his bat during the desperation innings. If Suzuki doesn’t start, Yan Gomes is cheap and worth a look for his HR upside. Suzuki recently said he was feeling better but would reassess his availability for Game 6 on Tuesday morning.
Blanked on Sunday,Bregman looks to get back on the home run train in Game 6, as the even-numberedgames have yielded dingers in this World Series. That funky numerology aside,he’s the best hitter on the Astros and he’s not going to break your bank if youplug him in at captain. That’s where I’ll want him tonight.
Altuve doesn’t have any homers in this World Series yet, but hedoes have eight hits in the last four games. I’ll have plenty of shares, evenas the team’s second most expensive hitter. George Springer is a good play too,but he’s a few more dollars and it’s hard to fit both.
He’s heating up and can go back to his comfort zone at DH in Game6. The matchup is a difficult one, but the more he sees Strasburg, the better.I’ll have some shares, but I’m not going overboard.
Brantley is getting a lot of hits and provides the best value onthe Astros team. He’s yet to be flummoxed by the opposing pitchers, and hasjust one strikeout in the entire series – a truly remarkable numbers in today’s“three true outcomes” game. For the guy who puts it in play more than anybodyelse in Houston, I’m buying.
CPT – M. Brantley ($11,700)
UTIL – S. Strasburg ($10,800)
UTIL – A. Bregman ($9,200)
UTIL – J. Soto ($9,000)
UTIL – Y. Gomes ($7,200)
UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,800)
CPT – A. Bregman ($13,800)
UTIL – J. Verlander ($11,000
UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,800)
UTIL – A. Cabrera ($6,600)
UTIL – R. Chirinos ($6,200)
UTIL – Y. Gomes ($4,600)
CPT – S. Strasburg ($16,200)
UTIL – K. Suzuki ($8,700)
UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,800)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($8,000)
UTIL – J. Soto ($9,000)
UTIL – V. Robles ($7,000)
You know the routine – no pitchers to consider so we can have somefun with the hitters!
MVP (2x) – Bregman ($9,500)
All-Star (1.5x) – Brantley ($7,500)
UTIL – Turner ($7,500)
UTIL – Gomes ($4,000)
UTIL – Alvarez ($6,000)
MVP (2x) – Soto ($8,000)
All-Star (1.5x) – Turner ($7,500)
UTIL – Kendrick ($4,500)
UTIL – A. Cabrera ($6,000)
UTIL – J. Altuve ($8,500)
MVP (2x) – Alvarez ($6,000)
All-Star (1.5x) – Soto ($8,000)
UTIL – Gomes ($4,000)
UTIL – J. Altuve ($8,500)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,500)
Goal: 0.50, Prize: 2x — Juan Soto, Alex Bregman, Yuri Gurriel
These guys all have power and this park is a good hitters park for RHBs. Soto is a lefty but red hot at the plate, and getting one dinger among these three is nearly a lock.
The World Series continuestonight in Houston after a big win from the Nats – so check out our 10/23 DFSpicks for MLB at Win Daily Sports.
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The game: World Series Game 2 – Washington Nationals atHouston Astros, 8:07 p.m. EST
Last night’s top Showdown entries had Max Scherzer, but noGerrit Cole, as the Houston ace struggled to put way batters, gave up five ERand notched just six Ks. It also had Sean Doolittle, so my lineups with Coleand Osuna yesterday were on the right track – I just had the wrong winning team.
Stephen Strasburg’s postseason numbers are almost asridiculous as Cole’s were heading into last night’s matchup, so I’ll considerhim the analog to Cole’s 1A yesterday. The Nationals hurler has less than one-quarterof the postseason experience that Justin Verlander does, and his metrics in thatmuch smaller sample are superior:
We’ll have shares of both in our lineup builds, though I’llbe taking more Strasburg in cash games given Verlander’s propensity to serve upthe long ball:
I still think playingboth in cash games is viable, and I’ll shift more GPP ownership to Verlander.
We’ll stick to the overall theme of the playoffs here, as that seemed to play out last night save for the solo shot by Ryan Zimmerman and the better plate approach from Yordan Alvarez, which we can get behind a bit more here. My player writeups for yesterday were a bit long because it was Game 1, so I’ll stick to one key thought for each player here and you can refer back to my previous writeup if you need more info.
Rendon has not faced Verlander before and is still a dangerous batin the heart of a solid lineup. We have to consider him, especially since he’sbeen quiet and has no trouble hitting RHPs. His price jumped $200 too (because theSPs don’t cost as much), so he’s definitely in play for GPPs.
My writeup on Turner wasspot-on yesterday and it applies again today. If he’s on base, he’s in business.And he does have power (.200 ISO in 2019). I’ll have shares, though maybe notas much as last night.
Again – the analysis wassolid, but I didn’t trust him enough to warrant the top captain spot in my GPPbuilds. He’s a hitter who thrives on confidence, but his ownership will bethrough the roof for Game 2. You’ll need some shares, just don’t go overboard.
Last night’s valuespotlight didn’t play, but his replacement did, and he hit a homer. Tonight, werun the same risk if they decide to roll out Yan Gomes instead of Suzuki – who’s14-for-42 career off Verlander with just 4 Ks – a stat which stuck out as muchas any considering Verlander’s 24.7% career K rate.
Altuve ended up 1-for-5last night and still reached double digit points on DK, so a multi-hit gamemakes him worthy of usage in our builds, and consideration as the main hitterfor our Astros-heavy lineups. He’s 2-for-5 off Strasburg in his career, whichain’t much – but it’s a start.
The guy is due. Bregman took a gift pitch from Sean Doolittle right over the heart of the plate yesterday because he was overthinking location and looking away – and he’ll likely not make that same mistake again. I trust his bat and his approach, so we’re going back to the well with him against Strasburg (2-for-3 career).
I’m fully aboard the Alvarez redemption train, as theyoung slugger went 2-for-3 in Game 1 and could easily break through with adinger tonight. He did hit 27 in 357 ABs during the regular season, and he’s beenon a homerless slump for far too long.
Correa was one of the fewAstros that actually looked overmatched by Scherzer last night (1-for-5, 3 Ks),even though the Nats’ pitcher didn’t have his best stuff. It’s possibly hisback was bothering him a bit, so I’m going to reduce my shares, which weremassive for Game 1.
It’s catcher day in Game 2 of the World Series. Thevalue is there, and the guy has plenty of power (18 HRs in 388 ABs in 2019).Catchers also have a knack for hitting mistake pitches very well, and Strasburgdoes make mistakes.
CPT – S. Strasburg ($15,900)
UTIL – J. Soto ($8,800)
UTIL – A. Eaton ($7,000)
UTIL – J. Reddick ($5,400)
UTIL – G. Springer ($9,200)
UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,000)
CPT – J. Verlander ($17,100)
UTIL – Bregman ($9,400)
UTIL – Y. Alvarez ($8,200)
UTIL – R. Chirinos ($5,000)
UTIL – A. Eaton ($7,000)
UTIL – R. Osuna ($3,000)
CPT – Y. Alvarez ($12,300)
UTIL – J. Verlander ($11,400)
UTIL – A. Cabrera ($7,400)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($5,600)
UTIL – K. Suzuki ($6,200)
UTIL – R. Chirinos (5,000)
CPT – A. Bregman ($14,100)
UTIL – J. Verlander ($11,600)
UTIL – Y. Alvarez (8,200)
UTIL – R. Chirinos ($5,000)
UTIL – K. Suzuki ($6,200)
UTIL – R. Osuna ($3,000)
CPT – J. Soto ($13,200)
UTIL – T. Turner ($9,000)
UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,800)
UTIL – R. Zimmerman ($6,000)
UTIL – K. Suzuki ($6,200)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,200)
Here we can just load upon hitters and try to find the bombs in the MVP and All-Star spot.
MVP (2x) – Altuve($9,500)
All-Star (1.5x) – Alvarez($6,000)
UTIL – Eaton ($7,000)
UTIL – Turner ($7,500)
UTIL – Chirinos ($4,500)
MVP (2x) – Rendon($8,500)
All-Star (1.5x) – Soto($8,000)
UTIL – Gurriel ($6,000)
UTIL – Suzuki ($5,500)
UTIL – A. Cabrera($6,000)
MVP (2x) – Bregman($9,000)
All-Star (1.5x) – Soto($8,000)
UTIL – Springer ($8,500)
UTIL – Chirinos ($4,500)
UTIL – Zimmerman ($5,000)
We hit on the 2x bet with the Soto HR last night and tonight were going back to the well with him and couple of hot-hitting, speedy Astros. Making 20 fantasy points among the three seems like a great wager at 5x, so lets go for it!!
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With the Astros up 3-1, the Yankees are on the brink of elimination in the ALCS. We’ve got your 10/18 DFS picks for the featured Showdown contests.
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Astros ace JustinVerlander has the edge in upside and in most scenarios will go deeper into thisgame than Yankees LHP James Paxton – though the Yankees have a slight edge in theimplied totals. You don’t need both pitchers in this one, and I’ll likely have someexposure to both starters, even with Paxton considerably cheaper.
There’s always the possibility that Verlander throws one of his trademark gems against the Bronx Bombers on their home turf, but the righthander’s vulnerability to the long ball makes him a risky option at such a high price. The veteran hurler – a future Hall of Famer who’s posted the highest K/9 rates of his entire 15-year career in 2018 (12.20 K/9) and 2019 (12.11 K/9) – has struggled a bit this postseason but struck out 12 batters in six innings as recently as Sept. 28. If you’re building Verlander lineups with him at Captain, the implication is that you’ll be fading Yankee bats, so you’ll probably need to employ some creativity if you also want the big Houston bats.
The price is right, and the upside is there, but Paxton hasn’tgiven us his best so far this postseason. He has, however, struck out 11batters in 7 IP, and although the Astros don’t whiff all that often, they’lllikely come out aggressive at the plate with a 3-1 lead in the series. IfPaxton’s stuff is on point, he could easily post double-digit Ks over 5-6innings of work.
Who’s going to be the hero of Game 5, if not one of the startingpitchers? Here are my top hitter picks for the 10/18 DFS Showdown.
If he’d come up big with the bases loaded against Ryan Pressly in the fifth inning last night, he’d probably be the odds-on favorite for World Series MVP heading into Game 5, but the 22-year-old is still looking to bolster his batting resume with a standout performance in Yankee Stadium. He’s still slashing .345/.406/.793 this postseason, with the only knock being his relatively futility against Verlander thus far (1-for-12 with 5 Ks).
Torres hasn’t had much success against Verlander, but LeMahieuis 5-for-15 career with a homer and just two Ks. He’s got Aaron Judge hitting rightbehind him and should get some pitches to hit as the Yankees leadoff hitter onFriday night.
He parked one into the left field stands last night and is massively underpriced – even in this difficult matchup against Verlander, who has owned him (2-for-19, 5 Ks). Gary is still pretty scary, though, and he’ll be a chalky value play in this Showdown. It’ll be interesting to see if Aaron Boone moves him up a little further in the lineup tonight.
Last night’s homer – Springer’s 13th career postseason HR in 166 at-bats – was a powerful statementby the leadoff man that he’s ready for another big night in Game 5, and hismatchup against Paxton and subsequent relievers should give him plenty of chancesto make his mark. The price is high, but he’ll be the main Astros hitter I havein my builds.
Like Springer, Correa hit his second homer of the postseasonand the 10th of his postseason career. Springer and Correa form quitethe power tandem, as that was sixth time those two have homered in the samegame in the postseason – an all-time MLB record, according to a tweet by STATS.Correa has good numbers vs. LHP (138 career wRC+, .371 wOBA) and Paxton in particular(9-for-22 career).
It’ll be tough to fit in Altuve at the Captain spot, but he’scertainly viable in Astros-heavy lineups that fade Verlander. He’s slashing.351/.385/.730 this postseason with four homers and seven runs scored in just39 plate appearances.
Note: Robinson Chirinos may sit after he got banged up last night behind the plate, so stay tuned to who’s donning the “tools of ignorance” for Houston tonight.
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Captain (1.5x) – G. Torres ($12,300)
UTIL – J. Paxton ($8,600)
UTIL – LeMahieu ($9,000)
UTIL – Gregorius ($5,400)
UTIL – Sanchez ($5,200)
UTIL – Springer ($9,400)
Captain (1.5x) – Verlander ($18,000)
UTIL – Correa ($8,400)
UTIL – Reddick ($4,800)
UTIL – Springer ($9,400)
UTIL – Sanchez ($5,200)
UTIL – Maldonado ($4,000)
Captain (1.5x) – Springer ($14,100)
UTIL – Correa ($8,400)
UTIL – Brantley ($6,800)
UTIL – Gregorius ($5,400)
UTIL – Sanchez ($5,200)
UTIL – Altuve ($10,000)
Without pitchers in the player pool, there’s a need for evenmore variance in your lineup building. Try to leave a few bucks on the table inthe larger contests and don’t worry about having the most expensive player inthe MVP slot.
MVP (2x) – LeMahieu ($7,500)
All-Star (1.5x) – Springer ($9,000)
UTIL – Alvarez ($6,500)
UTIL – Torres ($7,000)
UTIL – Hicks ($4,500)
MVP (2x) – Springer ($9,000)
All-Star (1.5x) – Altuve ($9,500)
UTIL – Maldonado ($4,000)
UTIL – Sanchez ($5,500)
UTIL – Brantley ($7,000)
MVP (2x) – Correa ($7,500)
All-Star (1.5x) – LeMahieu ($7,500)
UTIL – Sanchez ($5,500)
UTIL – Torres ($7,000)
UTIL – Alvarez ($6,500)
Verlander would normally be a pretty safe bet to reach eight Ks, but the more the Yankees see of the veteran, the more they’ll provide excellent ABs. I expect Verlander to challenge hitters in Game 5 and as a result, there will be more balls put in play early in counts.
We’re also counting on Paxton giving us his best stuff. As I mentioned before, he’s whiffed 11 batters in 7 IP this postseason, and I expect him to go a little deeper into this game than he did in Game 2.
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It’s 10/13 DFS and we’ve got another ALCS game on tap tonight – let’s get right to the MLB picks for the Showdown contest on DraftKings.
The game: New York Yankees at Houston Astros (8:08 p.m. EST)
General strategy: Justin Verlander is super expensive, and theYankees hitters looked good last night in just about all their ABS against Greinke,so I don’t think I’ll be using JV much at all in my DK builds. I’m primarilyconcerned with using Paxton as contrarian and getting Gleyber Torres and DidiGregorius in all my lineups.
Pitchers: Using Paxton or Verlander at the top spot makesit tough to get in decent bats from either side, so that’s not my preferred routehere.
Didi hasfour hits in his last seven ABs including a home run, and he’s driven in sixruns during that two-game span. He’s inexpensive and using him at CPT gives youflexibility at the UTIL spots.
If you’re looking for a contrarian CPT play on the Yankees who’s not intimidated by Verlander, consider LeMahieu – who’s electric in the leadoff spot and has all kinds of upside. The price is a little high but if he’s not my CPT, he’s in one of my UTIL spots.
Big spends: Alex Bregman ($10,400) and Jose Altuve ($9,800)
Pick yourpoison here. Both Bregman and Altuve are proven postseason performers and theypile up the extra base hits. They’re a combined 17-for-58 off Paxton, thoughAltuive has taken him deep twice in 30 AB. I’ll have exposure to one or both.
Big Spend Pivots: Aaron Judge ($8,600) or George Springer ($10,000)
Mid-range 1: Aledmys Diaz ($7,400) – He may get the start versus Paxton.
Mid-range 2: Gleyber Torres ($7,600) – The price hasn’t caught up to his tear at the dish.
Value 1: Brett Gardner ($7,000) – Fierce ABs and plenty of upside.
Value 2: Gio Urshela ($5,600) – Another talented player who’s often under the radar.
GPP punts: Martin Maldonado ($4,000)
CPT (1.5x) – D. Gregorius ($9,600)
UTIL – J.Altuve
UTIL – DJ LeMahieu
UTIL – J.Paxton
UTIL – G.Torres
UTIL – M. Maldonado
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It is hard to believe this 9/28 MLB DFS slate is the second to last regular season day of MLB. My Dodgers have things firmly in hand, and my hopes of a Dodgers-Yankees World Series are well alive. When each season winds down it leaves me with a feeling of both sadness, and relief. This is a tradition I have watched unfold now for over forty years, and each one leaves me with tears in my eyes, even as a grown man.
With everything pretty much said and done, all the players today are basically playing for personal glory. This makes pitching extremely tough to nail down. The biggest advice I can give to you today is play light and save your bankroll for NFL DFS. Today truly is a crap shoot. So, with Mindset “Leave No Doubt” playing in the background, I bring you my last MLB DFS regular season pitching article.
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On the Defense
I have no clue what is going on tonight with the Tigers atWhite Sox. The pitching option is not available on FD, but has Reynaldo Lopez slatedto start on DK, even though everything I have seen has him slated to pitch theday game. Keep on eye on this one.
JustinVerlander vs. Los Angeles Angels
$11,400 FD / $12,800 DK
My confidence in Verlander’s competitiveness drives this 9/28 MLB DFS play. The Angels with Mike Trout were not the scariest team on most nights, and without him is anything but. Over the last seven days the other guys from Los Angeles are batting a .221 with a pathetic wRC+ of 68. Even Justin’s sub-par numbers versus the Angels this season are better than most pitchers’ good ones. With question marks all over the board tonight he has the highest upside.
RobbieRay vs. San Diego Padres
$9,300 FD / $10,600 DK
With the Padres striking out 24.8 percent of the time versusLHPs Robbie Ray is a fully loaded 9/28 MLB DFS option. Ray may have allowed fourearned runs over 5 1/3 innings in his last outing facing San Diego, but he alsohad 10 strikeouts. Even with a negative ballpark shift in Arizona, for thediscount from Verlander, I would have no fear of using him in both cash gamesand GPPs.
BrettAnderson vs. Seattle Mariners
$6,700 FD / $7,200 DK
The Seattle Mariners are striking out 24.7 percent of the time versus LHPs this season. Anderson also over his last nine starts has only allowed more than three earned runs once. Seattle over the last seven days is striking out 28.7 percent of the time with a low wRC+ of 32 while batting .177. I cannot think of a better time to attack them than on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate.
ReynaldoLopez vs. Detroit Tigers
$6,700 DK
As earlier mentioned, I am not 100 percent sure Lopez is starting the night game, but DK does have him listed. The not so mighty Tigers are striking out 26.5 percent of the time versus RHPs while coming in 30th in MLB in both wOBA and wRC+. His last two starts facing Detroit did not go as well as hoped, but he has had major success versus this lineup in the past. I sure hope he pitches on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate because I would love to pair him with Anderson freeing up a ton of salary to spend on hitting tonight.
| Name | Team | W | L | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | xFIP |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 20 | 6 | 217 | 11.94 | 1.74 | 1.41 | 36.60% | 15.50% | 2.53 | 3.24 |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 12 | 8 | 168 | 12.03 | 4.33 | 1.5 | 37.80% | 19.20% | 4.28 | 3.81 |
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 12 | 9 | 171 | 4.58 | 2.53 | 1.05 | 54.40% | 13.60% | 4 | 4.83 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 9 | 15 | 176 | 8.18 | 3.27 | 1.74 | 34.90% | 13.90% | 5.57 | 5.39 |
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On theAttack
We have a Coors Field game on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate, and a lot ownership is going to head towards facing a lefty in Colorado. We do however have a few other sweet stacking options at lower prices.
JamesMarvel vs. Cincinnati Reds
Talk about a gift on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate. James will do anything but Marvel regardless of who he is facing. In his first three starts he has allowed 14 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings. The beauty is they let him keep pitching. With nothing to lose at this point I see that trend continuing tonight.
Reds vs. RHPs
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | BB/K | SB | wOBA | wRC+ |
| Eugenio Suarez | 496 | 7.50% | 28.00% | 0.27 | 1 | 0.372 | 127 |
| Aristides Aquino | 161 | 6.20% | 24.80% | 0.25 | 6 | 0.358 | 118 |
| Joey Votto | 425 | 12.50% | 18.60% | 0.67 | 3 | 0.35 | 113 |
| Derek Dietrich | 279 | 10.00% | 23.30% | 0.43 | 1 | 0.348 | 111 |
| Josh VanMeter | 226 | 11.50% | 21.20% | 0.54 | 7 | 0.327 | 98 |
| Tucker Barnhart | 306 | 12.10% | 22.20% | 0.54 | 0 | 0.319 | 93 |
| Curt Casali | 133 | 9.00% | 27.80% | 0.32 | 0 | 0.314 | 89 |
| Freddy Galvis | 406 | 6.20% | 26.40% | 0.23 | 2 | 0.31 | 91 |
| Jose Iglesias | 395 | 3.00% | 14.20% | 0.21 | 6 | 0.303 | 82 |
| Nick Senzel | 304 | 7.20% | 28.30% | 0.26 | 8 | 0.294 | 77 |
| Phillip Ervin | 159 | 6.30% | 27.70% | 0.23 | 3 | 0.279 | 66 |
| Michael Lorenzen | 32 | 9.40% | 28.10% | 0.33 | 4 | 0.272 | 62 |
| Kyle Farmer | 122 | 3.30% | 33.60% | 0.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 54 |
| Jose Peraza | 279 | 2.90% | 16.10% | 0.18 | 4 | 0.254 | 50 |
Garrett Richardsvs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Talk about a terrible comeback. Richards has allowed sevenearned runs over 5 1/3 innings since his return. Four of them earned runs werein his last start facing this same Diamondbacks team, but the last time was inSan Diego. Tonight, he is heading to Arizona and a negative park shift. The D’Backsare in full play on this 9/28 MLB DFS Slate.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RHPs
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | BB/K | SB | wOBA | wRC+ |
| Ketel Marte | 454 | 10.10% | 14.10% | 0.72 | 8 | 0.404 | 150 |
| Abraham Almonte | 33 | 15.20% | 24.20% | 0.63 | 0 | 0.399 | 147 |
| Kevin Cron | 57 | 5.30% | 33.30% | 0.16 | 0 | 0.341 | 109 |
| Christian Walker | 423 | 9.00% | 27.00% | 0.33 | 7 | 0.341 | 109 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 491 | 8.60% | 18.90% | 0.45 | 4 | 0.335 | 105 |
| Alex Avila | 162 | 19.80% | 34.60% | 0.57 | 1 | 0.331 | 102 |
| Domingo Leyba | 26 | 15.40% | 30.80% | 0.5 | 0 | 0.326 | 98 |
| Wilmer Flores | 172 | 6.40% | 10.50% | 0.61 | 0 | 0.325 | 98 |
| Tim Locastro | 150 | 4.70% | 14.70% | 0.32 | 16 | 0.318 | 94 |
| Adam Jones | 357 | 5.90% | 19.00% | 0.31 | 2 | 0.311 | 89 |
| Nick Ahmed | 460 | 8.00% | 19.30% | 0.42 | 7 | 0.297 | 80 |
| Carson Kelly | 261 | 12.30% | 21.80% | 0.56 | 0 | 0.296 | 79 |
| Jarrod Dyson | 395 | 10.60% | 18.50% | 0.58 | 29 | 0.274 | 65 |
| Jake Lamb | 194 | 12.90% | 24.20% | 0.53 | 1 | 0.271 | 63 |
| Josh Rojas | 115 | 9.60% | 25.20% | 0.38 | 2 | 0.262 | 57 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 156 | 5.10% | 13.50% | 0.38 | 1 | 0.261 | 56 |
| Caleb Joseph | 32 | 3.10% | 21.90% | 0.14 | 0 | 0.208 | 22 |
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The reality is Mike Foltynewicz has been incredible lately, and I am also sure that a ton of DFS writers are putting him out there today. My rule as a DFS writer is simple, if I am not going to use a player in my lineup, I will not include them in my article. But he is in a great spot, I just smell regression. Folty has only had eight strikeouts once this season, back on May 31st facing the Tigers. Under all the way.
Steven Matz has achieved these number a few times this season facing the Braves. With everything well in hand for Atlanta, I see some bench playing time today. Over all the way.
The Padres are among the league leaders in strikeouts versus LHPs, this is not a good thing for them. Robbie Ray has a 12.0 K/9, which is a very good thing for him. Over all the way.
Richards will be lucky enough to survive three innings tonight before being sent to the showers. Under.
A word if I may. Thank you to my beautiful wife Jennifer for taking my hand in marriage six years ago today. You put up with endless sports on the TV, loud and obnoxious hardcore music, and my grumpiness on a daily basis. I love you and hope we have many more years together. Happy Anniversary.
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This 9/17 MLB DFS slate has me oddly excited. It was a great weekend of NFL DFS, and another winning weekend for yours truly. Although the big money screenshots are alluring, the everyday DFS player understands it is all about your ROI (Return on Investment). Taking down a large field GPP is nice, don’t get me wrong, but the most successful players in the industry rarely do this. What they do accomplish on a regular basis is a solid 3-to-5 times ROI. It’s all about the long haul. So, with Harborlights’ “Isolation Ritual” playing in the background here is tonight’s picks.
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On the Defense
Once again on this 9/17 MLB DFS slate the Mets are at Coors Field with an implied total of 13.5. Lucky for us we have some nice mid-priced options on both sites to complement Justin Verlander, for example, if you were to do so on a two-pitcher site like DK.
JustinVerlander vs. Texas Rangers
$12,000 FD / $12,800 DK
With a Coors Field game, and plenty of starting pitching on this 9/17 MLB DFS slate to take a chance on, Verlander could be low owned. The Rangers are striking out 24.2 percent of the time versus RHPs with a wRC+ of 87. In his last four starts facing Texas he literally put up video game numbers, completely dominating them to the tune of 35 strikeouts over 26 innings while only allowing five earned runs. There is little doubt he is the top option tonight.
MilesMikolas vs. Washington Nationals
$7,200 FD / $7,900
Much like last night I completely expect this game to be low scoring. Dakota Hudson certainly posted a great start last night, but for DFS purposes put up a dud, netting one strikeout. On this 9/17 MLB DFS slate the K upside is certainly in question with the Nationals only striking out 21.1 percent of the time versus RHPs, but Mikolas has pitched well in his only start versus the Nats this season. He had four strikeouts over six innings while only allowing one earned run. For the salary he makes an excellent option to pair with Verlander tonight on DK, or as a great large field GPP play on FD.
Adam Plutkovs. Detroit Tigers
$7,800 FD / $7,700 DK
Although I prefer Mikolas the Detroit Tigers often offer a bevy of strikeout upside facing most pitchers, and this 9/17 MLB DFS slate is no different. Over Plutko’s three starts versus the Tigers this season he has dominated them twice. Both times with excellent fantasy numbers. With the Tigers striking out 26.6 percent of the time versus RHPs, and Plutko having shown in the past he can handle this lineup, a fine option has presented itself.
BrettAnderson vs. Kansas City Royals
$6,500 FD / $5,300 DK
It is time to step up on this 9/17 MLB DFS slate and take a chance. The Royals are striking out 28.5 percent of the time over the last seven days and carry a low .309 wOBA versus LHPs. Anderson is certainly no Sandy Koufax, Bob Feller, or Bob Gibson but does have that Denny McClain kind of vibe where he comes out to play now and again, and this game certainly seems like it could be the case. I plan on using him tonight in some large field GPPs on DK to free up major salary.
| Name | Team | W | L | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | xFIP |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 18 | 6 | 206 | 12.01 | 1.66 | 1.49 | 34.70% | 15.70% | 2.58 | 3.29 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 9 | 13 | 170.1 | 7.19 | 1.59 | 1.32 | 47.50% | 16.20% | 4.28 | 4.13 |
| Adam Plutko | Indians | 6 | 4 | 97.2 | 6.08 | 1.94 | 1.94 | 30.70% | 14.50% | 4.42 | 5.56 |
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 12 | 9 | 166 | 4.61 | 2.6 | 1.08 | 54.60% | 14.10% | 4.07 | 4.84 |
On theAttack
For obvious reasons the Mets / Rockies game is the chalkstack of the night. But if one was so inclined to do so on this 9/17 MLB DFSslate you could look elsewhere, like here.
BlakeSnell vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The algorithms on this 9/17 MLB DFS slate all have the pricing adjusted for the Dodgers facing Blake Snell. The thing is the reports are he is only going to be throwing around three innings. This opens the door for the sub-par Rays relievers to handle the workload. On some of these bats you can certainly take a chance the Dodgers have a big night.
Dodgers vs. LHPs
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | SB | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ |
| Cody Bellinger | 213 | 14.60% | 16.90% | 4 | 0.385 | 0.597 | 0.397 | 150 |
| Edwin Rios | 7 | 14.30% | 28.60% | 0 | 0.429 | 0.5 | 0.397 | 149 |
| Gavin Lux | 5 | 0.00% | 20.00% | 0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.387 | 143 |
| A.J. Pollock | 96 | 6.30% | 19.80% | 2 | 0.385 | 0.545 | 0.386 | 142 |
| Justin Turner | 177 | 8.50% | 19.80% | 0 | 0.356 | 0.582 | 0.384 | 141 |
| David Freese | 107 | 15.00% | 26.20% | 0 | 0.383 | 0.516 | 0.379 | 138 |
| Max Muncy | 169 | 11.20% | 29.00% | 2 | 0.361 | 0.527 | 0.372 | 133 |
| Chris Taylor | 152 | 11.80% | 23.70% | 2 | 0.351 | 0.545 | 0.363 | 128 |
| Russell Martin | 64 | 14.10% | 20.30% | 1 | 0.359 | 0.415 | 0.338 | 111 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 165 | 8.50% | 16.40% | 3 | 0.339 | 0.442 | 0.325 | 103 |
| Corey Seager | 174 | 8.00% | 25.30% | 0 | 0.31 | 0.378 | 0.297 | 85 |
| Will Smith | 57 | 8.80% | 40.40% | 1 | 0.281 | 0.423 | 0.29 | 80 |
| Joc Pederson | 49 | 2.00% | 30.60% | 0 | 0.245 | 0.271 | 0.223 | 36 |
| Tyler White | 104 | 13.50% | 30.80% | 0 | 0.26 | 0.213 | 0.222 | 36 |
| Jedd Gyorko | 36 | 11.10% | 19.40% | 1 | 0.25 | 0.188 | 0.207 | 25 |
| Matt Beaty | 34 | 2.90% | 17.60% | 1 | 0.176 | 0.156 | 0.154 | -9 |
JorgeLopez vs. Oakland Athletics
The Athletics are fighting harder than Rocky Balboa, atleast in the first three movies. Although Lopez has posted a few decent startsas of late, 41.1 percent of the baseballs still exit the bat at 95+ MPH. Upagainst a team like Oakland who often puts the ball in play, on this 9/17 MLBDFS slate a Dodgers / Athletics stack would certainly be a nice option.
Athletics vs. RHPs
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | SB | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ |
| Seth Brown | 47 | 10.60% | 21.30% | 0 | 0.489 | 0.683 | 0.483 | 212 |
| Matt Olson | 353 | 11.60% | 25.80% | 0 | 0.385 | 0.588 | 0.398 | 154 |
| Mark Canha | 321 | 13.40% | 24.00% | 2 | 0.408 | 0.532 | 0.395 | 153 |
| Marcus Semien | 517 | 11.40% | 14.30% | 10 | 0.366 | 0.523 | 0.371 | 136 |
| Ramon Laureano | 331 | 6.00% | 26.90% | 9 | 0.344 | 0.535 | 0.363 | 131 |
| Matt Chapman | 465 | 9.90% | 22.80% | 1 | 0.34 | 0.498 | 0.351 | 122 |
| Robbie Grossman | 409 | 12.70% | 17.40% | 8 | 0.35 | 0.362 | 0.311 | 96 |
| Chad Pinder | 181 | 3.90% | 24.90% | 0 | 0.272 | 0.408 | 0.285 | 78 |
| Jurickson Profar | 378 | 8.20% | 14.60% | 5 | 0.27 | 0.395 | 0.281 | 75 |
| Josh Phegley | 231 | 4.80% | 20.80% | 0 | 0.271 | 0.373 | 0.273 | 70 |
| Khris Davis | 365 | 7.70% | 29.60% | 0 | 0.266 | 0.339 | 0.259 | 60 |
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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick
Alex Bregman has been in a bit of slump as of late, batting .188 over the last seven days. With Lance Lynn dominating the Astros this season, and Bregman having little success over eight at bats, under all the way.
With Choo batting .183 lifetime off of Verlander over 93 plate appearances, and his complete dominance this season of the Rangers, under all the way.
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After poring over this 9/7 MLB DFS slate it seems to me as though we have one of them nights with several pitchers in great matchups, which for DFS purposes is like finding a needle in a haystack. So, with a whole day of baseball action ahead of us, and some tricky pricing, I bring you today’s pitching picks.
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On the Defense
JustinVerlander vs. Seattle Mariners
$12,500 FD / $12,400 DK
Justin Verlander usually comes at a high salary, and this9/7 MLB DFS slate is no different. So, unless you have access to a DFS paymentplan for salaries he is going to be tough to fit in tonight, especially on DK. Regardless,he is facing a Mariners team striking out 24.8 percent of the time versus RHPs.That last time Verlander faced the Mariners he had 10 strikeouts over sixinnings while only allowing one earned run. This is without a doubt the safestplay on the slate, and the most difficult to use.
JakeOdorizzi vs. Cleveland Indians
$8,900 FD / $10,200 DK
With Andrew Heaney only being $900 less on DK than Odorizzihe shines as the clear cut second SP1 option on this 9/7 MLB DFS slate. Despitethe tribe fairing well this season versus RHPs carrying a .329 wOBA, they stillwhiff more than 20 percent of the time. With Jake from State Farm posting a1.06 ERA with 19 strikeouts over 17 innings this season versus the Indians, Iam all in here tonight.
Tony Gonsolinvs. San Francisco Giants
$6,400 FD / $8,600 DK
Two things are self-evident on this 9/7 MLB DFS slate, TonyGonsolin is the first guy since Tom Selleck to make the moustache look goodagain, and his price on FD is extremely low facing a Giants team with a wRC+ of58 over the last seven days. Over his last 24 innings pitched spanning fivestarts, moustache Tony has only allowed five earned runs while striking out 19batters. This includes a start in Colorado. On DK tonight, with no Coors Fieldgame on the slate, I would try and find a way to pair him with Odorizzi leavingyou with $3,900 per player to start with.
AustinVoth vs. Atlanta Braves
$7,000 FD / $7,200 DK
Here is where we enter the high-risk portion of this 9/7 MLBDFS pitching article. Although the Braves are striking out 23.3 percent of thetime versus RHPs, they also post .328 wOBA which is 11th in MLB. Theamount of innings Voth will pitch tonight is my biggest concern as he has onlypitched more than five innings twice in his first five starts. Luckily for usone was versus this Braves team where he struck out seven batters over sixinnings while only allowing two earned runs. I will be using hm tonight as mySP2 in GPP play.
JeffHoffman vs. San Diego Padres
$5,500 FD / $5,100 DK
Talk about a boom-or-bust GPP play on this 9/7 MLB DFS slate. Hoffman is facing a Padres team tonight striking out 26.5 percent of the time versus RHPs, with a low .298 wOBA. In his last state facing the Padres in Colorado Hoffman went five innings allowing one earned run with only two strikeouts. With an extreme park shift tonight in San Diego I am totally going to take a shot here and bat load a lineup or two.
| Name | Team | W | L | SV | G | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 17 | 5 | 0 | 29 | 193 | 11.98 | 1.63 | 1.54 | 0.202 | 34.60% | 16.10% | 2.56 | 3.41 | 3.31 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 14 | 6 | 0 | 27 | 142 | 9.63 | 3.11 | 1.01 | 0.296 | 35.10% | 9.60% | 3.61 | 3.66 | 4.54 |
| Austin Voth | Nationals | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 9.39 | 2.35 | 1.17 | 0.295 | 40.60% | 11.10% | 3.91 | 4 | 4.64 |
| Tony Gonsolin | Dodgers | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 7.07 | 1.93 | 0.96 | 0.222 | 45.10% | 8.80% | 2.89 | 3.68 | 4.71 |
| Jeff Hoffman | Rockies | 1 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 45.1 | 9.13 | 3.77 | 2.58 | 0.346 | 35.30% | 22.00% | 7.35 | 6.3 | 5.17 |
On the Attack
TylerBeede vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
After a tough loss last night in this historic rivalry, theDodger bats are going to come out swinging tonight. Beede has allowed four ormore earned runs in in five of his last eight starts, never surrendering lessthan three. With the Dodgers onlystriking out 20.9 percent of the time versus RHPs (26th in MLB), anda .342 wOBA, Beede is going to get walloped.
Notable Bats
Cody Bellinger absolutely mashes opposing pitchersand is batting .316 over the last seven with two home runs.
Joc Pederson is batting .727 with five home runs andnine RBI over the last seven days while posting a wOBA of .379 versus RHPs.
Matt Beaty has been in a bit of slump as of late, batting .167 with one home run over the last seven days but comes at a reduced price and currently has a .372 wOBA versus RHPs.
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Houston Astros
In Kikuchi’s last two starts versus the Astros he has allowed nine earned runs over nine innings. With Houston coming in 1st in MLB offensively versus LHPs posting a killer wRC+ of 138, which is a full 12 points higher than the Twins coming in at 2nd, all bats are in play here.
Notable Bats
Jose Altuve has an incredible .486 wOBA versus LHPs,with a wRC+ of 215. He is a top play any night versus lefties.
Alex Bregman is batting .435 with a home run and sevenRBI over his last seven games while posting a .436 wOBA versus LHPs thisseason.
Robinson Chirinos comes in at a value most nights inan expensive Houston lineup. He also has a .400 wOBA versus LHPs with a wRC+ of157. Easily my top catcher play of the night.
DylanCovey vs. Los Angeles Angels
How about a pitcher who has allowed eight earned runs overhis last 4 2/3 innings, including a start versus the Tigers? Yup, here he is.With a whole lot of action heading towards the Astros and Dodgers offensetonight, the Angels should provide some value facing a scrub like Covey.
Notable Bats (besides Mike Trout)
Brian Goodwin may not be a flashy name but he doeshave a wOBA of .356 versus RHPs. He is also batting .333 with a home run andseven RBI over the last seven days while finding himself in the lineup on aregular basis as of late.
Kole Calhoun is another player that also comes in at a nice salary most nights and as a bonus has a home run off Covey in a small sample size. He also has gone nine straight games without putting one in the seats, which I see changing tonight in the cleanup spot.
| Name | Team | W | L | SV | G | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP |
| Tyler Beede | Giants | 3 | 9 | 0 | 20 | 96.1 | 8.5 | 3.74 | 1.87 | 0.325 | 44.10% | 19.40% | 5.61 | 5.42 |
| Yusei Kikuchi | Mariners | 6 | 9 | 0 | 28 | 144.1 | 6.55 | 2.87 | 2.06 | 0.298 | 45.40% | 19.50% | 5.36 | 5.79 |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | 1 | 7 | 0 | 16 | 52.1 | 6.02 | 3.96 | 1.89 | 0.291 | 41.60% | 18.60% | 6.88 | 6.1 |
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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick
With Beede in a tough start tonight in Los Angeles, and Bellinger having the ability on a nightly basis to draw walks, and mash baseballs, I am going with the over here.
Although Posey’s splits favor RHPs, he has yet to face mustache Tony, which often leads to an 0-for-something.
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