In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re picking apart the field at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and looking for big winners!
Jon Rahm (DK $11,400, FD $11,900) – Rahm is the tourney favorite and both a great course fit and strong golfer in all formats. He’s a cash game lock and my favorite to win this week.
Justin Thomas (DK $11,200, FD $11,700) – Thomas is a closerunner-up, and my shares of him will be close to Rahm. There are simply noflaws in his game, he hits it a mile and he’s riding high off the President’sCup win. Lock him in as a pivot to Rahm, unless you’re going studs and scrubs –an option we’ll explore in one of our sample builds.
Dustin Johnson (DK $10,100, FD $11,200) – You’re getting adiscount on DK because of his rough 2019, which included both injury andsubstandard play. DJ’s length will play here – he just needs to roll in someputts and get that old dominant feeling back.
Gary Woodland (DK $9,300, FD $10,400) – Woodland is a sneaky pick this week. He likes the course and he’s at 16-1 odds to win this event, so that’s something to consider. Woodland was playing well in the Hero World Challenge but closed with a one-over-par 73 in the final round to finish T7. He’s certainly got the game for this track.
Also consider: Rickie Fowler, Patrick Cantlay
Cameron Champ (DK $8,200, FD $9,700) – Champ is another bomber who’s a feast-or-famine PGA performer. This week he’s relatively safe to deploy, and his ownership shouldn’t be through the roof since he’s a little pricier than many of the more popular names below him. He finished 11th here last season.
Brendan Todd (DK $8,100, FD $9,300) – Todd had a breakthrough in 2019 with two wins and three Top 10s, though he’s always been known as a guy who can go really, really low. The Pittsburgh native will be a long way from home, but he finished eighth in 2014, he can move it off the tee and the guy can be an absolute demon on the greens. Todd makes for a decent GPP special this week.
Corey Connors (DK $7,800, FD $8,900) – The Canadianhas six top 25s in his last eight starts and had a solid2018-19 season with a win, four top 10s and seven Top 25s overall. His puttingand reasonable price make him one of my core plays in both cash and GPPs.
Matthew Wolff (DK $7,900, FD $9,100) – Wolff might get popular this week, but his raw talent makes him a strong consideration for GPPs. Don’t get distracted by the wonky swing – this young man is an elite ball-striker who’s both long off the tee and a capable putter.
Also consider: Paul Casey, MattKuchar, Joaquin Niemann
J.T. Poston (DK $7,400, FD $8,400) – Hopefully J.T. will be “Poston” some low scores, am I right? The North Carolina native hit his stride in 2019 with a win, three Top 10s and nine Top 25s – finishes that bode well considering his low price.
Sebastian Munoz (DK $7,100, FD $8,300) – I doubt that Munoz will attract much ownership, so he’ll be a staple in my GPPs. The Colombian’s game checks all the boxes and he’s affordably priced on both sites.
Sung Kang (DK $6,600, FD $7,600) – Kang is a crazy bomber who should enjoy this course. I have a feeling he’ll be popular because of the stars and scrubs strategy, so he could be a fade option if you don’t believe in his admittedly bizarre game. Again – he probably won’t win and there’s some fade equity, but I’ll be using him in the 1/5 lineups where I lock in two $10K+ studs on DK.
Lanto Griffin (DK $6,500, FD $7,000) – Another golfer bound to be popular this week as folks desperately search for value, Griffin closed out the year with a couple of poor showings after winning the Houston Open. I think he’s underpriced.
More value golfers for GPPs: Keith Mitchell, Max Homa
Xander Schauffele (DK $8,700, FD $10,000) – He won last year, and he’sgoing to be very popular, but Xander’s game has shown some cracks recently. I’mnot picking him this week.
Kevin Kisner (DK $7,700, FD $9,000) – Kisner has a 9th and a 17th here in two tries, but he’s not the stat profile we’re looking for on this course. He also tends to be a popular play because he’s decent against strong fields, so I’m fading him.
Graeme McDowell (DK $7,100, FD $8,900) – He’s a familiar name, but this isn’t the venue for him. I love the guy and his attitude, but it’s best to stay away on courses over 7,500 yards in length.
Also fading these lower-priced guys: Jim Herman, Martin Trainer, Tyler Duncan
Jon Rahm ($11,400)
JustinThomas ($11,200)
SebastianMunoz ($7,100)
KeithMitchell ($7,000)
SungKang ($6,600)
LantoGriffin ($6,500)
($200left)
JustinThomas ($11,200)
RickieFowler ($9,500)
CameronChamp ($8,200)
J.T.Poston ($7,400)
SebastianMunoz ($7,100)
SungKang ($6,600)
($0left)
DustinJohnson ($10,100)
MattKuchar ($8,400)
BrendanTodd ($8,100)
MatthewWolff ($7,900)
CoreyConnors ($7,800)
LantoGriffin ($6,500)
($1,200left)
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Goal: 16.5, Prize: 1.5x
These three (Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, and Gary Woodland) rank among the top golfers on the tour for making birdie or better, so getting an average of six sub-par holes a piece from them will get us to 18. If you’re really feeling frisky, go for the 2x payout!
Welcome to the first installment of The Range. A course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. We kick off the series and the 2020 PGA Tour with the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
Course: Kapalua’s Plantation Course
Par: 73
Length: 7,596 Yards
Greens: TifEagle Bermuda
Fairways: Wide, Celebration Bermuda
Architect: Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw
For a hole by hole breakdown, visit the PGA website here.
The Sentry Tournament of Champions, as always, is being played at Kapalua’s Plantation Course in Hawaii. Unlike most years though, the course has gone through a renovation that began shortly after last year’s TOC. Architects Coore and Crenshaw wanted to get back to the course’s roots, with firm fairways and fast greens. A nine-month endeavor to achieve these goals came to fruition as they reopened in November. The field will consist of previous winners from 2019, this year, 34 golfers enter the week.
Even with the renovation, the winning score should be in the mid-twenties or higher. With this in mind, let’s look at the top 10 in Strokes Gained Total over the last 24 rounds with easy scoring conditions.
One of the main reasons for the easy scoring and low rounds is the width of the fairways. The fairways at the Sentry Tournament of Champions are some of the widest on tour. Here are the top 10 golfers that excel with fairways wide enough to land an airplane on.
Once the golfers have landed on the greens at the TOC, they’ll have to putt on what should be fast TifEagle Bermuda. The greens have been restructured to allow better pin locations and to maintain firm surfaces. A condition this course has been lacking in previous years. These 10 golfers have excelled on Bermuda in the past 24 rounds.
The only two golfers to appear on all three lists are Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas. Not surprising though as they are both DraftKings highest priced and Vegas’ top odds on winning the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
Here is the scorecard for this week’s tournament at the TOC.
The two toughest holes are both Par 4’s that are over 500 yards. I want to look at golfers who do well with that distance, to avoid bogies or worse. On the flip side, three of the easiest holes are Par 5’s between the range of 500 – 550 yards. This is where a majority of the scoring will occur. Golfers who can eagle those holes and have a high percentage to birdie will be to keep pace with the field.
With the way the new fairways should roll out, golfers who have a solid to good short/wedge game should succeed at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Proximity within 125 yards should be the target range.
If you were a follower of mine last year, you’ll know that when models are being created, one of the first stats added is Opportunity Gained. It describes when a golfer is within 15 feet for a birdie opportunity. Essentially it illustrates golfers that put themselves in good positions to score. To go along with Opps Gained is Birdie or Better (BOB). This shows golfers that come away with a birdie or better compared to the field and in a presumed scoring fest this stat should be a necessity.
Illustrated below are the top 10 golfers, when each of the stats listed above have been evenly weighted over the last 24 rounds.
While it might be popular, the pairing of Thomas and Cantlay might be the way to go at the TOC.
Though this is the first tournament of the year, it’s highly irregular. First, there are only 34 golfers in the field and there is no cut. With such a short field, anyone can win and ownership will be higher on almost everyone. Sit back and enjoy the start of the new season. The Sony Open will have a full field and the feeling of a true sweat come Friday evening.
Course Setup
Easy Scoring
Easy to hit fairways
Fast Bermuda greens
Player Efficiencies
Par 4 500+ yards
Par 5 500 – 550 yards
Proximity 125 and under
Opportunity Gained / Birdie or Better
Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my personal player pool and reasoning why each golfer was chosen. Also Wednesday night you can find me in the Win Daily Discord helping members with their lineups and last-minute questions.
Please leave a comment below or reach out on Twitter if you found this helpful and any questions you may have.
Stats source: FantasyNational
In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re onto the second leg of theAsian swing with for the inaugural ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP in Japan. Let’s find somegems!
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Justin Thomas (DK $11,800, FD $12,200) – He won last week in Korea and checks most of the boxes this week. I won’t have massive ownership given the high price and need for a Top 3 to be worth the price, but he’s hard to fade.
RoryMcIlroy (DK $11,500, FD $12,300) – Rory said the course really meets his eye off the tee, ashe’s a fan of tree-lined layouts, and the last couple of days he’s been righthere playing in the MGM Resorts The Challenge Japan Skins. He’s one of the top dogswhen it comes to Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, as he’s the best driver of the golfball in the game, and he seems to be enjoying himself alongside his friends inJapan.
HidekiMatsuyama (DK $10,700, FD $11,200) – Matsuyama is right at home on thiscourse and is one of the few who has experience with the layout. A great ballstriker who’s a perennial leader in the focus stat categories, he’ll be popularthis week. He’s also beenplaying here a lot this week in the skins event and eventhough he’s one of the betting favorites, I’ll have shares in all formats.
Paul Casey (DK $10,100, FD $10,700) – Casey is good fit for this golf course as he was eighth on tour in SG: Approach in this past season and he won at the Valspar on Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course – a correlated course. He plays well in rain, played badly in the Italian Open and he’s also kind of expensive – making him an excellent GPP play who should garner low ownership this week.
AdamScott (DK $9,900, FD $10,600) – Much like Casey, Scott could easily fly under the radar athis price point. But he’s a savvy play and good course horse as he’s a regularfinisher among the elite in SG: Approach. The poor showing at the Shriner’swill keep most of the field off him, so I’m buying.
TommyFleetwood (DK $9,800, FD $10,400) – He plays well in theseconditions and has no problem competing with the world’s best. He’s got seventop 20s in his last nine starts worldwide since The Open Championship and he’sa closer who plays well in the final rounds of a tournament – something thathelps in no-cut events. I’ll likely have massive shares sicne ownership wiollbe low after he finished just T20 last week.
Also consider: Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth
Victor Hovland (DK $9,400, FD $10,000) – Hovland’s insanesub-70s round streak came to and end in Korea, but he’s still a betting favoritewith plenty to prove on the PGA Tour – and he’s not going to carry the ownershiphe did in last week’s event.
Tiger Woods (DK $9,300, FD $10,500) – If he can avoid the long rough and keep it in play, there’s no reason Tiger can’t play well enough to win. He’s been playing the Skins Game this week after getting his knee cleaned out and is optimistic about his chances in the upcoming events. He needs just one more win to tie Sam Snead for most career PGA TOUR victories at 82.
Tony Finau (DK $9,200, FD $10,100) – Finau might be my favoritegolfer this week at any price. He checks all the boxes in all the stat categorieswe’re focused on, and he’s playedwell at his most recent events (T9 at Shriner’s and T10 at Alfred Dunhill Links).Narashino has some bizarre, undulating bentgrass greens (he likes bentgrass andthey’ll be using alternating sets of the greens in different days) and thattends to favor the consistency of the longer clubs in the bag, where Finaushines.
Louis Oosthuizen (DK $8,400, FD $9,300) – I am loving this price onOosty, who finished second at last year’s Valspar and is seeing his firstaction in a couple of months since concluding the 2018-19 season with four straight top 20s. He’s great offthe tee, a solid ball striker and a fiery competitor who should perform well inthis loaded field.
Joaquin Niemann (DK $8,200, FD $9,100) – Niemann has fared well as a ball-strikerand rates well in SG: Off the Tee. He also won a few weeks ago but scrambles outof the sand well and ranks inside the top-20 in Par-4 scoring average. Niemannmakes the short hop to Japan after a top-12 finish at The CJ Cup in Korea lastweek.
Also consider: Sergio Garcia, Sungjae Im, Adam Hadwin, Shane Lowry (GPP)
Matthew Wolff (DK $7,200, FD $8,500) – Wolff played badlyin Korea and finished near the bottom of the leaderboard, but I’m a sucker for aredemption story. A talent like this coupled with a price drop means I’ll be grabbingplenty of exposure in GPPs and counting on him for a Top 20 finish.
Chez Reavie (DK $7,400, FD $8,600) – Reavie is another across-the-boardperformer in our focus stats and he’s relatively cheap on DK this week. Hemight be more of a cash game value play at this price, but I’ll be using him ina few GPPs.
Charles Howell, III (DK $7,300, FD $8,600) – A long and accurate hitterand bentgrass specialist who seems like an excellent course fit, Howell ischeap and scores well on Par 4s – so I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt onthis unfamiliar layout.
Rory Sabbatini (DK $7,100, FD $8,200) – Sabbatini plays wellon the course corollaries and is a modest $7,100 on DK despite a T10 at theItalian Open and a T31 finish last week in Korea. I use him in a lot of GPPsand rarely regret it.
Nate Lashley (DK $6,400, FD $7,200) – Another under-the-radarpro who finished T20 last week in Korea, Lashley plays well on similar layoutsand seems to be enjoying the PGA Tour after his breakthrough win last season. Arelatively steady performer, he’s guaranteed to9 be low-owned and has upside inGPPs.
Value golfers for GPPs: C.T. Pan, J.T. Poston, JoelDahmen, Bubba Watson, Wyndham Clark
Also consider: Andrew Putnam, Kevin Streelman, Ryan Moore, Emiliano Grillo, Abraham Ancer, Dylan Frittelli
Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,000, FD $9,600) – It pains me to fade him,but I’ll have much fewer shares of Fitzpatrick than usual based on his pricejump and unknown course conditions. He also might draw additional ownershipfollowing his one-stroke defeat at theItalian Open, which was his fifth runner-up finish in 11 months. I do like him,but my exposure will be diminished.
Ryan Palmer (DK $6,900, FD $7,900) – He’s a poor bad-weathergolfer and I’m expecting a letdown after a T12 last week in Korea. Palmer alsostruggles with Par 4 scoring and is making a lot of lists as a top value play thisweek, so he might be highly owned. If I was entering 150 lineups I’d have himin 3-5, but he’s far from a core play in this field.
Also fading: Daniel Berger and Jason Kokrak
Patrick Reed (DK $9,600, FD $10,200)
“Everyone else seems to be hanging out with friends outthere, having a good time – but he’s probably just by himself, miserable. I’veseen snapchats of golfers in groups out in the city to eat sushi, but not him.”– Mark “Spades” Spada
Oh man, Spades! That’s so mean — and incredibly appropriate for a guy who hates his own family and is universally loathed on tour. Those sentiments also remind me of one of my favorite Neil Young songs, which I just listened to last night on vinyl.
Reed says he’s “thrived” since committing to more feel and embracing his fundamentally unsound golf swing. He’s gone T36–T15–T4 on the European Tour and has been playing okay, but I think he’s out of his element on this course.
P. Casey ($10,100)
T. Fleetwood ($9,800)
T. Finau ($9,200)
S. Lowry ($8,000)
J.T. Poston ($6,600)
C.T. Pan ($6,200)
J. Thomas ($11,800)
S. Im ($8,800)
R. Moore ($7,800)
C. Reavie ($7,400)
A. Putnam ($7,400)
K. Streelman ($6,700)
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In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’ll explore some of the top golfers in the CJ CUP focusing on closers who can finish in the Top 10.
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Brooks Koepka (DK $11,400, FD $11,900) – He won here last year and this course sets up perfectly for him – especially since we can remove the variables of a slow start. Koepka checks all the boxes and can handle adverse conditions anywhere in the world. Even if he’s not hitting fairways, he’s an excellent scrambler with patience and the ability to get strokes back in a hurry.
Justin Thomas (DK $11,700, FD $12,000) – If you don’t play Koepka, you should play Thomas, who won here in 2017. He’s been incredibly steady lately with nothing worse than Top 12 finishes in his last seven starts worldwide, including a T4 at the Safeway Open a few weeks ago. Taking Koepka & Thomas leaves you with $6,725 per golfer on DK in a studs-and-scrubs approach, and I’ll be building more than a couple lineups this way with no cut looming over the scrubs.
Tommy Fleetwood (DK $10,300, FD $10,900) – Pairing Koepka with Fleetwood leaves us $7,075 per golfer, and the Englishman’s form is solid – with a T5 at the Alfred Dunhill Links championship in late September. He’s currently fifth on the European Tour in GIR and sixth in scoring average, and he ranked 12th in SG: Off the Tee in 2019. I might have some GPPs with just Fleetwood ($7,940 per the remaining five golfers), or Koepka ($7,720 per the remaining five) among the elite picks and go for a more balanced approach with the remaining five golfers.
Hideki Matsuyama (DK $10,700, FD $11,100) – Matsuyama is the weakest golfer of these elite picks, and his form isn’t great (three MC in his last eight starts). But with no cut, maybe he can find his game and use his strengths (power/ball-striking combo and precision approaches) to dominate Nine Bridges, where he debuted with a T18 last year.
Also consider: Colliin Morikawa, Victor Hovland
Sungjae Im (DK $9,700, FD $10,300) – There’s probably not a harder working golfer around, and Im’s packed schedule certainly keeps him busy. But the top-ranked South Korean national hasn’t missed a cut since The Open Championship and he finished in second place at Sanderson Farms in mid-September. He took a rare but much-needed week at the Shriner’s after a T49 at the Safeway, and his recharged batteries could provide a nice narrative if he can contend at home.
Sergio Garcia (DK $9,100, FD $9,800) – We’re getting Garcia in excellent form, at a considerable discount from some of his European peers, and without a cut – a consequential footnote considering his predilection for poor behavior and insane blowups. While he failed to advance to the BMW Championship during the recent FedEx Cup Playoffs, he has since posted a Top 25 at the Omega European Masters, won the KLM Open on the European Tour in mid-September and most recently finished T7 in the Spanish Open.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello (DK $9,600, FD $10,100) – Garcia isn’t the only Spaniard we have to watch in this tourney. RCB has improved on a couple of key stats recently (GIR and SG: Putting), and he arrives in good form after a solo second in the Spanish Open a couple weeks ago. He’s also nabbed a T11 and T3 at the CJ CUP. I worry that he’s not the best closer, but there’s a good chance at a Top 10 finish and if he fits, I’ll use him.
Matthew Wolff (DK $8,800, FD $9,300) – Wolff is a star on the rise with a big, quirky swing that belies a balanced game and interesting fit to this golf course. He’s making his debut here, but he finished T10 at the Safeway Open and should benefit from the no-cut structure and he might improve each day he plays this stunning layout.
Chez Reavie (DK $8,300, FD $9,200) – Reavie might get chalky at his affordable price, but if he’s not, I’ll have some exposure. He’s got two Top 15s here but missed the cut at the Shriner’s – something I’m hoping the game log watchers buy into.
Also consider: Danny Willett, Joaquin Niemann, Tyrell Hatton, Kevin Na (GPP only)
Pat Perez (DK $7,500, FD $8,900) – While he initially cited his last-minute WD from the Houston Open as due to a wrist injury, he later clarified that he just wanted to get a head start ion arriving in Korea for this personal favorite (where he earned a T5 in 2017 and T7 in 2018). He gained entry on a sponsor exemption and I’m counting on lower ownership than his course fit (and obvious value) would suggest, because some folks got burned by his WD last week.
Jazz Janewattananond (DK $7,000, FD $8,100) – One of the best Asian golfers who also plays events on the Euro tour, Jazz sits atop the Asian Tour’s Order of Merit with two wins, and he’s posted an incredible 17 top-six finishes worldwide in the last 12 months, including victories at the 2019 SMBC Singapore Open and 2019 Kolon Korea Open.
Rory Sabbatini (DK $7,900, FD $8,700) – Sabbatini is among my favorite GPP options on Bentgrass, as his putting improves considerably on that surface. He’s among the best in the field in Par 4 Scoring and Birdies or Better Gained on courses that feature Bentgrass greens and he’s coming off a T10 at the Italian Open.
Joel Dahmen (DK$7,100, FD $8,200) – He finished T9 at the Shriners two weeks ago and performed well in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and par-4 scoring. While Dahmen placed T29 in his debut at Nine Bridges last year and remains a longshot to win, his stats models trend up for this course, and he’s a value option that I’ll have some exposure to in the hopes he can nab a top 10 finish.
Also consider: Ian Poulter, Abraham Ancer & Sung Kang (GPP only)
Jason Day (DK $9,500, FD $10,400) – The former world No. 1 (seems like ages ago, doesn’t it) enters the week ranked 27rd in OWGR, and it’s been a tough descent to watch, as I’m a huge fan. He tied for fifth last year and 11th the year before, so he could garner higher ownership than his form warrants.
Gary Woodland (DK $9,400, $10,200) – 2019 was a big year for Woodland, who was the runner-up to Koepka last season before he snagged his impressive U.S. Open victory. He’s still got some upside, but there’s something missing from his game and he’ll get lots of ownership because of last year’s finish at this venue.
Jordan Spieth (DK $10,000, FD $10,600) – “He’s a self-destructing crybaby who only knows how to putt, and he hasn’t played this year yet.” – Mark “Spades” Spada
Yep. I’m right there with you, Spades. It’s been a while since he finished 37th at the BMW Championship and was eliminated from the FedExCup playoffs, and the only thing that scares me is the no-cut aspect, because a fellow who relies this heavily on his putter has MC-equity I can dig.
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